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Cooper Kupp

Los Angeles Rams

Mr. Cooper's neighborhood


Cooper Kupp was 4th in the NFL last year in red-zone targets. Kupp and Goff have the most chemistry of all the receivers on the team as Goff targeted him more than anyone last year. Everyone is expecting Cooks to lead these receivers in points this year, but Kupp will be the receiver to own. Sammy Watkins had eight red-zone touchdowns last year. Cooks is not a red-zone target receiver, so Kupp should see more targets and could sneak into the WR2 with massive upside.


08/13/18, 09:39 PM CDT by C-wags

Source: pyromaniac.com


Jerick McKinnon

Minnesota Vikings

The Jet is set to take off!


Mckinnon has been a super divisive player this offseason. Especially after the first preseason game where he didn't amass many yards and the following day he injured himself in practice. I constantly hear people question his ability to carry the ball 200+ times or that he can’t run between the tackles, or he’s unproven in a lead role. This is all NONSENSE and you shouldn’t believe any of it. Shanahan had his pick of players that he could’ve signed instead of Mckinnon, including Dion Lewis, Carlos Hyde, or drafting a rookie. He chose Mckinnon cause he felt he fit his offensive system in the same way that Devante Freeman fit his scheme. The 49ers just signed Alfred Morris today as a safety net, but I’m taking all the Mckinnon I can this year. I see him carrying the ball 205car/950yds/6td while also amassing 60rec/500yds/5td making him an RB1 this year. Don't be scared, and steal him away from people that are.


08/13/18, 09:24 PM CDT by C-wags

Source: pyromaniac.com


Marquise Goodwin

San Francisco 49ers

Too good, too fast


Marquiae goodwin has been targeted like a number one in camp. With Pierre Garcon likely squaring off with one of the toughest schedules against number one DBs, Goodwin could break out even more than he did last year. I wouldn't put it past him to put up T.Y HIlton numbers this year. Pick him up in the 6th and 7th round and pile up the points.


08/13/18, 09:11 PM CDT by C-wags

Source: pyromaniac.com


Jay Ajayi

Philadelphia Eagles

Ready To Fly


In 2016 Ajayi racked up 1272 yards on 260 carries and 8 TD’s and finished as the RB11 in both standard and PPR scoring. Last year Miami ran him out of town when he struggled in an anemic offense. He was not heavily used when he got to Philly, but his touches did increase every week until the Superbowl. He was also hyper efficient gaining 5.8 yards per carry and 9.1 yards per reception. Despite the general perception Clements usage went down with Ajayi’s arrival, even with Smallwood going down with injury. The Eagles have the number 1 offensive line as graded by PFF, and 18 RB targets and 192 carries vacated. Ajayi is a safe pick in the fourth round and a steal in the fifth.


08/02/18, 06:08 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.nflmock.com


Jimmy Graham

Green Bay Packers

Split Wide, Back in Stride


He is coming off a season that produced only 57 receptions for 520 yards, his fewest since his rookie season. With that said, Graham remains a big-time weapon in the red zone. He led the league last year with 27 targets in the region, which led to 10 touchdowns. You can bet Rodgers and play-caller Mike McCarthy will be utilizing his skills early and often when knocking on the door of the end zone.
Look for McCarthy to use a variety of personnel groupings with his new tight end group and expect to see Graham split out wide as a receiver much more than as a traditional in-line tight end.

This goes right along with what I was saying on Pyro podcast 308. I expect Graham to be used as a wide receiver and not a tight end. When Graham was negotiating his contract in his last season in New Orleans he wanted to be paid on scale with wide receivers because he rarely lined-up as an in-line tight end. When Seattle paid him, he did whatever they asked, and they asked him to block more. He was out for five games that year, but averaged one less reception per game and only scored two TD’s, after having at least nine TD’s in the previous four years. Overall Graham saw about 25% fewer targets while in Seattle compared to New Orleans and his fantasy numbers reflect it. I see Green Bay using him more like he was used in New Orleans, and even though he has obviously lost a step or two I see him as the major replacement for the Jordy Nelson targets.


07/22/18, 01:41 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.packersnews.com


Aaron Jones

Green Bay Packers

Cream Rises To The Top


Jones’ 5.55 YPC on first- and second-down carries trailed only Alvin Kamara (6.24) for best in the league last year. Jamaal Williams averaged 3.80 YPC on first- and second-down in 2017.

He’s slid two rounds since the announcement of his two game suspension, he is a screaming value if you can get him in the ninth round. We already knew he was going to be competing in a crowded backfield so missing two games really shouldn’t be a big hit to his overall production. The likelihood of either of the other two backs taking over the role is slim, Jones should be able to carve out 10 touches a game when he gets back with fresh legs. They are all high risk for injuries so I’m hoping this added rest will help Jones in the long run.


07/21/18, 06:51 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Nelson Agholor

Philadelphia Eagles

Solidified Role


In 2017, Nelson Agholor had 62 recs, 768 yds, 9 TDs and 7 games of WR2 or better. There is no reason he wouldn't maintain this output, even with additions in the offense. Agholor had to carve out a role for himself and beat out incumbent Jordan Matthews. This year he'll be the main slot receiver and have an established role from the start.


07/21/18, 06:49 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Sterling Shepard

New York Giants

Buying The Slot Receiver in a Shurmur Offense


Sterling Shepard is currently 24 years old with a 124/1,414/10 career line, in two seasons. He finished 2017 as the WR42 in 11 games (WR22 in FP/G) with only a 13.9% target share. He finished 2016 as the WR36 as a rookie. He's currently being drafted as the WR42 in MFL10’s.

Shepard does see more targets (+2.7), get more receptions (+2.3), more yards (+28), and get about three more PPR points per game when Beckham is out. But he still averages over 11 PPR points per game when he is playing. Apparently Shepard is more open in the end-zone when Beckham is playing, as he averages three times as many TD’s when they are both playing.


07/21/18, 06:47 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Allen Hurns

Jacksonville Jaguars

Plenty of Targets in Dallas


He’s been hampered by injuries over the past couple of years, but when he has stayed healthy and gotten the targets he has been successful. His best season was in 2015, he had 105 Targets for 64 Receptions at 1031 Yards for 10 TDs, that’s 16.11 Yards Per Reception and a 61% Catch Rate coming from Blake Bortles. He finished as the WR14 in Standard Scoring and WR18 in PPR.

He's an amazing value in the 11th round of current best-ball drafts.


07/21/18, 06:41 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Eric Ebron

Detroit Lions

Second Team Breath's New Life Into TE


Outside Brady, Luck is the only other QB to support 2 TE's, both Fleener and Allen had 8 TD's with Luck. Frank Reich runs 2 TE sets very successfully - see: 2018 Eagles. TE1's for Coach Reich have never finished worse than 12th. Yes, Doyle would seem like the obvious choice after last season, but that was with Brissett who needed a quick dump off outlet. Luck isn't a check-down machine.

Eric Ebron has lined up "everywhere" in the Colts offense. And the new tight end already is beginning to feel at home in Indianapolis. Without a strong WR2, Ebron could see a large number of targets. The Colt's line-up in two TE sets more than any other team in the NFL.


07/21/18, 06:36 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Matt Breida

San Francisco 49ers

Filling Coleman Role


“One guy who stood out at Niners practice to me was RB Matt Breida. No one talks about him, but the dude is gonna get some run this year. Fast downhill player.”

This is just some more camp hype from a beat reporter, but if they don’t get another running back through trade or free-agency Brieda is going to see plenty of touches to pay off being picked in the 15th round of fantasy drafts. McKinnon has never had over 205 touches in a season, that leaves plenty of opportunity in a Shanahan offense.


07/21/18, 06:28 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


LeSean McCoy

Buffalo Bills

McCoy starring down 30 with uncertainty


LeSean McCoy, despite ending the year as the #7 fantasy running back in standard leagues was a slight disappointment for fantasy owners last year. McCoy played in all 16 regular season games, but only cracked 100 yards rushing 4 times, and averaged 4.0 yards per rush, which was 23rd in the NFL. That all happened with a formidable QB with a scrambling ability that defenses had to respect, presumably allowing McCoy some more room before tacklers ascended.
The Bills have the least sexy QB situation in the entire NFL in my opinion. With Tyrod Taylor at the helm for most of the season last year, the bills had the 31st passing offense. None of the QBs on the Bills roster are considered mobile and without a wide receiver on their roster worthy of drafting in any fantasy formats, defenses can stack the box against McCoy. McCoy will be overused, underperform and probably get hurt because of it. McCoy’s ADP is in the second round, but wouldn’t touch him until the fourth or beginning of the fifth round.


06/29/18, 12:42 PM CDT by C-wags

Source: pyromaniac.com


Tyreek Hill

Kansas City Chiefs

Hill lookin' busty with chiefs new look.


Tyreek Hill had a great 2017, amounting 75 receptions for 1183 yards and 7 touchdowns in 15 games. He’s currently being drafted in the middle of the third round in standard leagues, which would appear to be a great value. However, with promoted RB coach Eric Bieniemy presumably in-line to be the primary play caller, a new QB, Travis Kelce receiving the #1 target share and the addition of Sammy Watkins, I expect Hill’s numbers to decrease dramatically.
I believe Hill to be more of a boom or bust player this year. There’s no denying his break-away speed and ability to separate from defenders, and with Mahomes cannon of an arm, I expect them to connect deep on occasion. However, I believe Sammy Watkins to be the more complete receiver and likely to take more of the target share from Hill. Bundled with the change in offensive strategy toward the end of last year to run the ball more, the change to a young QB presumably resulting in a more conservative game plan, I see a major decline in the amount of touches Hill will get and see him as more of a 5-6 round flex play guy.


06/21/18, 10:54 AM CDT by C-wags

Source: pyromaniac.com


Eric Ebron

Detroit Lions

Ebron Could Use Some Luck


Colts signed TE Eric Ebron, formerly of the Lions, to a two-year contract. Coach Frank Reich called Ebron an "elite tight end."

The last time we saw Andrew Luck healthy (2016), the Colts used 2+ TE sets at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL and had the 6th-highest target share to TEs.


04/01/18, 11:32 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Carlos Hyde

San Francisco 49ers

Hyde and Seek


Browns agreed to terms with RB Carlos Hyde, formerly of the 49ers, on a three-year, $15 million contract.

Obtaining Hyde has several trickle-down effects; first it replaces Crowell who signed with the Jets, it probably diminishes Duke Johnson’s value a bit. Hyde is a better all-around back than Crowell was and will certainly take over the goal-line work seeing that he’s got 20+ pounds on Duke. It also reduces the likelihood that Cleveland takes Saquon Barkley with the 4th pick in the draft. They will most likely look to draft a defensive player (Chubb) or trade down again.


04/01/18, 11:28 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jerick McKinnon

Minnesota Vikings

McKinnon Goes West For Gold-Rush


49ers agreed to terms with RB Jerick McKinnon, formerly of the Vikings, on a four-year, $30 million contract.

McKinnon averaged a ho-hum 3.8 yards a carry for the Vikings and scored three rushing touchdowns. By contrast, San Francisco's former lead runner, Carlos Hyde, averaged 3.9 yards an attempt in 2017 and had eight rushing touchdowns.

It appears as though Shanahan is enamored with McKinnon's athletic metrics, but I'm not so sure he was "pounding the table" to get him. This move could push the Niner's to cut Joe Williams.


04/01/18, 11:12 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.sacbee.com


Mike Wallace

Baltimore Ravens

Eagles Keep Improving


Eagles signed WR Mike Wallace to a one-year contract.
Mike Wallace can still move posting a top five max speed among wide receivers last season. He will fill the void left by Torrey Smith as a speed vertical threat.


04/01/18, 11:08 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Terrelle Pryor

Washington Redskins

Jets Searching For Weapons


Jets agreed to terms with WR Terrelle Pryor, formerly of Washington and Cleveland.

Second year in a row on a new team doesn’t really help Pryor's cause, but I like the idea of him on the field with Teddy Bridgewater at some point. I would imagine, with some creativity, the Jets could really design some innovative gadget plays.
The Jets receiving corps really looks like a bunch of question marks at this point though, no telling what the week-to-week outcome will be with these guys.
Jermaine Kearse: 65 catches, 810 yards, 5 touchdowns (2017)
Robby Anderson: 63 catches, 941 yards, 7 touchdowns (2017)
Quincy Enunwa: 58 catches, 857 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)
Terrelle Pryor: 77 catches, 1007 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)


04/01/18, 11:04 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Carlos Henderson

Denver Broncos

Sleeper Watch


Broncos coach Vance Joseph said the team is "counting on" Carlos Henderson making an impact in 2018.

If you are paying attention to Staggs projections there is plenty of opportunity for Henderson to step into a solid number of targets in the slot. Henderson was hindered by injury and awful QB play last year. Being drafted in the 18th round or later in best-ball leagues, Henderson is the late round flyer that should be on your radar.


04/01/18, 11:00 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.denverpost.com


Ben Watson

Baltimore Ravens

Watson Returns To Big Easy


Saints signed TE Ben Watson, formerly of the Ravens, to a one-year contract.

Watson had 74 catches on 110 targets for 825 yards and 6 TD’s when he was with the Saints in 2015. After missing 2016 he had a pretty good year with Baltimore last year despite an anemic offense, with 61 catches on 79 targets for 522 yards and 4 TD’s. He’s not a bad late round flyer TE. He’s basically free right now, but I expect by the time the season starts he’ll be being drafted within the top 20 at the position.


04/01/18, 10:54 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

mock drafting in June is a great way to learn more about what you want in fantasy football for your team

12-Team PPR Mock Draft #2 (June 30th, 2017)

Posted by d-Rx on 07/15/17

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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Mock Draft #2 - PPR 12-man team

Click here to view larger version of Mock Draft #2 results

 

 

For each version of our Pyro #FF Draft Kit we do a 12-team PP Mock Draft and supply the results of that mock draft as one of the 25 tabs within our draft kit. For version 2 of the Draft Kit we got 12 folks together, including 10 Pyro contributors and 2 Pyro fans and had a nice slow roll mock. The results are charted above. I then asked each of the owners to do a little write up about what they saw in the draft, and provide some mindshare on things each person learned from this mock. Pyro Lytics (our chart guy) and Taco Corp. (one of our favorite female fans) weren't able to contribute to the write up portion, but there is plenty of feedback below from the rest of the crew. Please have a read and supply your feedback in the comments below.

 

 

 

The Archer’s Thoughts:

 

Give me your sleepers, your busts, your huddled masses!

My biggest mistake was taking Tyreek at 6.01.  I believe he will be a top 25 WR in PPR leagues but I seldom target leaner Wide Receivers in my WR2 and WR3 spot. My caution is Alex Smith’s arm and the limitations of the Chief’s offense.  I do not believe that Tyreek can be a physical #1 for his team for extended periods of time.  The AFC West is, arguably, the toughest division in football heading into the 2017 season. In hindsight, I would have rather had Corey Davis, and only Davis over Tyreek at this spot. Hill’s ADP is currently WR22 on FantasyPros.com.  At WR26, I found some value in the pick during the moment. Overall, I was pleased with how the board fell.

 

My best pick and another pick by someone else I loved

My favorite pick for the value was Jalen Richard in the 15th.  I am convinced that Jalen Richard will have a bigger workload going into 2017. If the wheels fall off Lynch, I am not expecting Richard to take the majority of the snaps as a rusher but I did find him impactful in the passing game last year. The Raiders could stand to gain more utilization from their running back corps.


I liked Stagg Party’s 3rd
 round pick, Travis Kelce.  I am of the opinion that Kelce will eat linebackers until Mahomes gets the nod.  The reasons why I like Kelce are the same reasons why I didn’t like my Tyreek Hill pick. I am not sold on Conley, Wilson, or the like.  I have Kelce ranked as my TE1 and with the termination of Maclin, #87 will destroy my Raiders like Jamaal Charles used to. Staggs had to draft Kelce at value and he will not underwhelm.

 

Reconsidering an approach…

I was thoroughly impressed with Stagg’s strategy.  He waited until Round 4 to draft a Wide Receiver, taking two Running Backs in the first two rounds.  In Round 10 he still managed to draft Dak Prescott. The Wide Receivers that fell to him were fairly consistent weekly start players.  Staggs wisely paired volatility with consistency, a strategy I recommend in life and in fantasy.  The pick that Staggs impressed with me most was Jamaal Charles in Round 12. He started out well with 2-Top 10 RBs, drafted the ageless, Frank Gore, and still took a flier on Charles.  Jamaal may not perform up to expectations but at this price, he can flip him for situational needs or keep the depth.

 

Hate it and loved it!

 

Hated it – Guys I would have taken over Golden Tate, even in a PPR league; Davante Adams, Emmanuel Sanders, Jamison Crowder, Tyreek Hill, and Corey Davis.

 

Hated it – I’m disappointed Deshaun Watson was not drafted. I consider him a Top 20 QB in most formats this year! 20/20: I would have taken him round 16 had I known he would have fell.

 

Loved/Hated it – Lytics! I loved your first four rounds but I think you stretched on Abdullah. Don’t get me wrong, I was getting hype the first 4 rounds.  I like Abdullah but not as my first RB.  I would have taken another QB over one of your 6-8 rounds (e.i.- Derek Carr, Matt Ryan, Kirk Cousins). I liked 11 of your 16 picks though, top 5 finish for sure. 

 

Loved it – Breshad Perriman and Derek Carr.  In a fantasy draft you are always envious of the guy in front of or behind you.  This time, Houdini occupied both places. Both of these picks were the ones that got away from me.  I took Brady early and intended to shore up my QB situation with Derek Carr. This year I find myself with plenty of Perriman shares.  I am ready for him to take that leap and showcase his speed/athleticism. With the acquisition of Maclin, I opted out of any other Ravens WRs. Perriman’s value is stabilizing if you are also considering his value. I took the same approach to Lamar Miller/Deandre Hopkins.

 

2 teams I envied

I really liked how Wheeler’s team shaped out. I love his first two running backs and his WR corps in general. Ebron has not lived up to his NFL draft position and I think Dede Westbrook may edge out Lee when it’s all said and done. The New York Giants are statistically consistent year to year on defense. I worry that this may be the year that they disappoint. Overall, I love the value and the strength that this team has. Good job, Wheeler.

 

Staggs and Wheeler both went RB heavy at the start of the draft and found talent in the later rounds that I find complimentary to their early moves. I do not like Stagg’s last two RB selections but the rest of his roster could stand alone.  Staggs never disappoints.

 

Overall grade for my team

85% B – I was not sold on Jordan Howard and should have taken Lamar Miller instead.  I am high on the Houston Texan’s offense this year and consider them a Top 5 team in the hunt this year.  I like to diversify my draft picks throughout multiple teams in a season long format, especially at the top of the draft board.  I am contempt with my RBs and QBs overall.  I don’t normally target smaller/slot Wide Receivers but when the production and players fall to me in the right format, I am ok with the outcome.  I am SOLD on Hunter Henry.  Antonio Gates will get his record and then it’s the HH show.  I am a firm believer of statistics and the statistics bear that elite kickers and defenses can be just as important as elite offensive pieces.  Drafting Def/K early, I didn’t notice a marginal difference with how the board fell after these picks.  I got a back up QB and TE immediately after those picks.  Richard and John Ross were value picks in my opinion. I would not be disappointed if these players let me down and were turnstile positions on my roster.

 

What did you learn from this mock…

Drafting from the 12th spot, you get the short end of the stick. It has been a while since I’ve drafted from this position because most of my drafts are random. I knew in order to get the players I really wanted, I would need to draft them a round or a round and a half early.  At this position, I would need to set my eyes on players 22 spots away.  I would advocate for readers to become familiar with all sections of the draft board (4 team sections), especially if your league votes in a random order.

 

 

Houdini's Thoughts:

 

TEAM GRADE: To be honest as I was not particularly thrilled to be drafting out of the 11th spot, but there ended up being a lot of upside to the position. The first five picks gave a real solid base to the team, and nabbing Derek Carr in the seventh round moved this team’s grade up. A-

 

TEAM STRATEGY: Best available. When you are picking at the end of the draft you have to be flexible and going with the best player available helps to prevent boxing yourself into a corner with a particular strategy. The strategy worked great with Devonta Freeman still being on the board for me grab with my first pick. Dez was a solid second pick with his touchdown potential. I could have gone T.Y. Hilton, but am concerned about a regression in yards, and he has never been a major touchdown scorer. Best available is also what made me go for Martavis in the third, as his potential upside is huge and worth the risk in the third round. I then went after players that I believe are in for huge upside seasons: Christian McCaffrey, Pierre Garcon, Breshad Perriman and Paul Perkins. Getting Derek Carr was also a major benefit, and the ability to back him up with Jameis Winston in the 11th round was a definite best player on the board pick. 

 

FAVORITE PICK: Christian McCaffrey in the fourth round. I may have reached for Easy Ed’s kid, but you have to go with your instincts. McCaffrey has big play potential that no other back in Carolina has. The fact that this is a PPR league is another major reason why I felt he was the perfect pair with Devonta Freeman. I love that it is only Jonathan Stewart as the main competition, and the fact that the Panthers are also lacking in dynamic receivers should allow Christian to be a major player as a receiver in this offense. I have zero regret with this pick, and even though he may have been a reach in some peoples minds there was no way he was coming back to me, and I love this pick. 

 

LEAST FAVORITE PICK: Spencer Ware in the sixth round. There was just nothing glamorous about taking Ware. There is concern that he could lose his job to Kareem Hunt, but this was more of a pick to help out in the early part of the season if McCaffrey is not getting as many touches as I expect. I could not pass up on a starting running back, but honestly I am not going to be out there bragging that I drafted Ware.

 

WHAT WOULD I HAVE DONE DIFFERENTLY: As I look back on this draft I definitely waited till the end for a tight end, and that was one area where I feel I could be hurting. I also went for mostly young players with upside. It will be interesting to see if this was a smart strategy or if I should have gone for some more established players at running back and in my wide receiver depth. The other issue for this team is really counting on a few players to be the major touchdown producers. Grabbing as many young players as I did could come back to bite me if they don’t take a step forward in their touchdown production. 

 

WHAT DID I LEARN FROM THIS DRAFT: I really came away with a much better team than I thought I would out of the 11th spot. I also know that certain things fell my way, as I would not have been as happy with this team if I did not get Devonta Freeman in the first round. After him I was not thrilled with the top running backs, and the receivers that were available were not really worthy of a first round pick. In drafts things have to fall your way multiple times, which seemed to happen in this draft, but there is a lot more chance for the players you covet to be gone when picking at the end of the round. I like that I went for high upside players, and I think I would do this again if I were drafting in the back end of drafts this year. I also think it is better not to have a set strategy when drafting out of the 11th position, as you need to be able to be flexible in how you construct your team.

 

 

Stagg Party’s Thoughts:

 

Team Grade: This was one of the more different drafts I have done as I rarely seem to land a pick semi towards the middle of the round. After the big five wide receivers were gone I had a choice to make and that Melvin was where a tier break happened. I ended up doubling back with Ajayi knowing I could load up on reasonable upside at wide receiver a bit later in the draft. This team had a lot of zigs and zags depending on how the board broke in front of me.


This gets a lower grade from me as I have not tested the dual RB with a tight end in the third for a few years, but it gives me the ability to play matchups at wide receiver during the season in order to get the best lineup. This is a strategy I commonly use in bestball however.
B-.

 

Teams Strategy: My basic strategy was to lock in on elite running backs early then load up on receivers. I zigzagged in the third when Kelce was still available as I though he is a surefire top-3 tight end in PPR formats. I also felt that receivers were pretty much the same from 18-32 and with everyone still having to grab running backs of their own I felt I could grab a few of them in the next few rounds. I did just that in the next few rounds grabbing five in next six picks. I was able to grab Dak Prescott in the tenth, which I thought was huge value. I loaded up on two running backs with pass catching floors who could see more work than we think if things break the wrong way for the guys in front of them.

 

My favorite pick: For sure this is Dak Prescott. Dak is a guy who can run and throw, score points on the ground and minimize mistakes to keep a nice safe floor on a weekly basis. Dak was uber efficient in his rookie season, but even if that regresses, his overall attempts are likely to increase to offset it.

 

My least favorite pick: My least favorite pick would have to be Mike Wallace in the 8th. I like the two receivers I selected after him almost equally, so he looks a little uglier because of the two pretty girls standing next to him.

 

What would I have done differently: Not much honestly, I may have went with a wide receiver over an RB in the second and see what I can conjure up at running back a little later. My mid to late round picks felt like I was chasing wide receivers, luckily, the position is so deep I feel like I landed with an above average corps, but mixing and matching during the season is never perfect and I will probably wake up with some cold sweets trying to make the right call.

 

What did I learn from this mock? That best ball strategies aren’t perfect fits for redraft leagues. While this strategy would work well there, it is tough to say how many perfect decisions I will make at wide receiver during the season, bestball limits that exposure. I still think this would be a very strong team. 

 


Waz’s Thoughts:

 

Team Grade: There’s a lot to like with this team in a PPR league, but I wasn’t entirely satisfied with the direction that I felt I needed to take early in the draft. Granted, I have no issues with going WR-WR-WR when I feel the value is there, but I felt like I was playing a bit from behind after 16 RBs went off the board before I picked at 3.09. I may have considered Leonard Fournette there, but Hartbeat squashed that possibility by taking him at 3.07. Luckily, I thought I caught great RB value landing Isaiah Crowell at 4.04 and pass-catching RBs Tevin Coleman and Bilal Powell at 57th and 81st overall, respectively, as well as Darren Sproles and Chris Thompson in the 12th and 13th rounds, respectively. I’m pretty stoked about having Willie Snead, Eric Decker, and Adam Thielen as my WRs 4, 5, and 6. I should have 0 issues with WR flex/bench depth. Not to mention, I feel like I drafted the best stable of WRs in this league. PPR me, please! Later in this draft, in my opinion, I managed to land a Top 5 PPR TE in Kyle Rudolph and a surefire Top 8 QB in Marcus Mariota. Will Lutz kicks for the team who scored the 2nd-most points in the NFL last year—the New Orleans Saints. Lastly, as a seasoned D/ST streamer, I locked down the Pittsburgh Steelers, who are blessed to play against the Cleveland Browns in Week 1.

 

There are a couple of teams that I like as much or more than my team at this point of the offseason, but all in all, I’d probably give myself a grade of A-- (or B++).

 

Teams Strategy: I would have to say that my strategy remained similar to my typical 1 QB, PPR draft habit; where I stock up on high-target players at what I feel are very good values, and wait on QB. I desperately wanted AJ Green (yes, over Mike Evans) at 1.09, but Taco Corp made sure that my wish was spoiled and took him at 1.08. I knew I wanted at least two WR1s within the first two picks and that worked out. I had a tough time taking Jordy Nelson at 2.04 because I worry that this is the year he struggles and nearly took PPR darling TY Hilton. I figured the TD upside of Nelson was worth the pick in the end. Waiting on QB worked out very well after I managed to land Mariota at 9.09, the 10th QB off the board. Do yourself a favor and WAIT ON YOUR QB IN 1 QB LEAGUES! Find yourself some hotshots and depth at positions that are much scarcer and/or volatile. Lastly, waiting until the last two or three rounds for a Kicker and D/ST should be a part of everyone’s strategy. I took that route once again in this draft and when all is said and done, I’m sure that the end-of-season scoring will solidify this approach as a positive one.

 

My favorite pick: It absolutely would have to be Eric Decker. When he’s healthy (I know, we can make this argument for nearly any player), Decker is one of the safest WR2s in PPR. The fact that I found him at WR41 is freaking insane. I truly had no reason to chase a 5th WR at this point, but if there was a player in the 8th round that was impossible to pass on, it would be Eric Decker. If Willie Snead as the Saints’ WR2 doesn’t work out and he puts up a negative ROI for WR32, or if Allen Robinson doesn’t return to his pre-2015 form, Eric Decker will fit in nicely without any kind of scoring disruption for my team throughout the season. This pick should also be every other team’s favorite pick, it’s simply too good to dislike and even more so with Marcus Mariota slinging him the football.

 

My least favorite pick: This was a bit difficult for me and I would have to say that it’s a toss-up between Allen Robinson and Bilal Powell. Both players aren’t entirely picks I wish I could take back, they were players that I just didn’t really want. As I mentioned earlier, I was left with a subpar selection of RBs to take at 3.09 so I took the BPA in Robinson. At 7.09, I considered myself tapped on WRs, the TEs I liked weren’t available, and it was too early for a QB. Not to mention, I needed a RB3 this far into the draft so I took the RB with the highest upside. Now, I am a Jets fan, but I think the Powell love around the industry is a bit too much and I still would prefer the value of taking a Matt Forte a bit later. In the off-chance that Powell does lead in carries for the Jets though, and subsequently catches enough passes to bail out whoever they have lined up behind center, the pick will pay dividends.

 

What would I have done differently: I don’t think I would have done much of anything differently except for maybe reconsider Hilton over Nelson in the 2nd, or taking Andy Dalton as my QB2 in the 14th round. I don’t often prefer drafting a second QB in a 1 QB league, but it seemed like an okay thing to do here. What if Mariota isn’t fully recovered from his injury and/or what if something happens to another team’s QB early and they’re looking for a trade partner? I think Andy Dalton could return a nice piece or two in a desperate situation.

 

To be completely honest though, if I were to absolutely do anything differently, it’s ask for a re-roll of the draft order because drafting 9th wasn’t fun for me. It worked out in the end due to catching some solid value, but I would consider the success I had with later-round picks an outlier in comparison to the majority of drafts you’ll encounter.

 

What did I learn from this mock? To continue to trust my proven strategies and past experiences and literally just let the board fall to me. I’ve always been an old-school fan of value-based drafting and I continue to find great success with it year after year. I also learned that many people still overvalue RBs and are taking a flier on them over safer proven WRs. In the end, even if the RB hits their ceiling, both players are likely to score somewhat similarly. Lastly, I’m still shocked that two Kickers and six D/STs were drafted before the 14th rounds. The analytics have been done and the results have been proven for several years. There’s no reason for teams to do this. You’ll benefit much more greatly by adding offensive depth if one of your top picks doesn’t make it through all 16 games. Lastly, I did learn that drafts are fun; it’s absolutely the best part of the season and with mocks, you can do a shitload of them and not have to worry about it ever again. Sure, it sucks when you mock draft a sexy ass team that won’t ever win you anything, but hey, it helps you prepare for the real drafts and if anything’s ultimately important in fantasy football, it’s preparation.

 

 

The Hartbeat's Thoughts

 

Team Grade: I like this team, but I do not love it. Drafting from the 7 spot is the worst slot this year in my opinion, missing out on the big 3 RB’s and big 3 WR’s sucks this year. Overall team grade B-.

 

Teams Strategy: Early depth at all positions. Not getting on of the big 3 RB and WR, I had to choose where I would make up those points at other positions as I know I won’t have many clear wins at the RB1 or WR1 spots. I was very happy with TY falling in the second, but not thrilled about Fournette in the 3rd. I was really happy to get Jordan Reed in the 4th as he offers the most weekly upside at TE, just have to always be worried about injury. Luck in the 5th round was a steal, getting a top 4 QB with QB1 potential 3 rounds after Rodgers can go a long way. That said I am rocking a triple stack on the Luck, Hilton and Moncrief. This means some huge weeks and some duds with almost no chance to win.

 

My favorite pick: Adrian Peterson in the 7th round. Yes he’s old, but he only had what 100 carries last season. So he’s 100 carries off being a consensus top 3 RB going into draft’s last season. The last time AP came at a discount was 2012, he fell due to that ACL injury and went on to rush for over 2,000 yards. Moral of the story is don’t fuck with Adrian Peterson. Oh yeah, and my girlfriend told me that this was my favorite pick so I had to.

 

My least favorite pick: Leonard Fournette. I don’t hate the value here on Fournette, but it feels a bit like chasing the rookie RB production from last year. My RB depth didn’t shake up how I normally go heavy on RB either, so Leo Fournette with only a 32 year old RB2 on the Saints, that’s too much volatility all-around.

 

What would I have done differently: My team desperately needs a WR2 after TY, since I waited until round 6 to pick up my second WR. Also, I double stacked Luck with Hilton and Moncrief, I believe that TY will have standalone value of a borderline WR1/WR2 and Moncrief has WR2 potential, but they will likely eat into each others production. In a perfect world, I would have grabbed another WR in place of Andrew Luck to diversify my assets and take Andy Dalton in one of the later round QBs as he was my favorite value of the mock, I believe he has top 5 QB upside with Green & Eifert healthy along with his new toys in Mixon and Ross.

 

What did I learn from this mock? I hate drafting in the 7 slot since I am a RB, I was lucky to have Hilton come back to me, but especially in the 7-12 slots it is really hard to take both TE and QB within the first 6 rounds. That is a better play when you can wrap up a David Johnson or Lev Bell who are basically WR2’s if you remove their rushing 

 

 

PK Ripper’s Thoughts:


I wanted to build a more balanced roster with at least one explosive player in each position especially picking out of the middle of each round. I find that a high floor and safe number two is the best way to approach this draft slot.

My overall team grade: I would give this team a C+, I could have done better but my feeling is if I would have started the season with this team is I would be very active in trading and in waivers to make a serious run here.


Picks that I like at cost or value: I feel as if my 5th & 6th round picks of Ty Montgomery and Lagarette Blount are solid in that position especially Ty in PPR the feature back in a high powered offense that will give you 5 receptions a game and can make plays in space just makes sense to me as a number two running back. Also love my pick of Tyrell Williams he is underated and has potential to jump from top 25 to a top 15 WR especially if something were to happen to Keenan Allen and at a 10th round price tag I'd gladly pay.

 

Pick I would loved to have that escaped my grasp: Definitely would have been Theo Riddick I took Capt Kirk in the hopes he would have came back around but no such luck and I was sure I wouldn't get Cousins back either so I took a starting QB over my 4th RB but love Riddick in this format as I don't trust Ameer Abdullah at all.

 

Teams that I like and dislike: I wanted to make this black & white so when I looked at the league as a whole team SGL stood out to most starting this draft solid after getting Le'Veon 1st overall having A Rod and the Gronk come back on the turn is a solid foundation combined with the PPR possession type of recievers Tate & Edelman next as well as Ingram and Riddick and the Savvy pickup of James Conner in the 14th as if Le'Veon goes down his backup has always finished as an RB1 and I trust that JC can carry the Bell. 

The team how shall I put it, I fear the least is Team Wheeler other than Zeke there is alot of potential of the floor dropping on this squad. TG3 might struggle again,Sammy maybe doesn't recover fully from the foot, Fitz shows his age,DangeRuss can't get the passing game going agin,Eddy Lacy gets hurt (or hungry which says to me is a motivation thing #RedFlag). This team has bust written all over it to me.

 

What I would have done differently: I would have most likely went RB,RB in the first two rounds especially with so much more late value at reciever than at running back. Also I am very high on stacking quarterbacks with wide receivers or higher tier tight-ends and I missed it by getting sniped on Jordan Reed.

 

 

d-Rx’s Thoughts:

 

A do over!

One mistake I made that I wish I could have back is going with Jimmy Graham in the 5th round. It’s not that picking Jimmy bums me out so much, I am super high on him this season, but it’s what I lost out on in the process. I went Jimmy Graham and Corey Davis instead of Pierre Garçon and Mike Gillislee… for whatever reason I thought Mike Gillislee was going to come back to me when waiting, instead he was taken by Pyro Lytics with the next pick after my Corey Davis. I think Corey Davis is going to be a beast, and Eric Decker, Delanie Walker and Richard Matthews don’t scare me off from thinking he can crush in year 1, but I love Pierre and I think Mike Gillislee is going to take the RB1 job and literally run away with it for the Patriots. I should have gone with Garçon and then grabbed Gillislee on the next pick and taken a TE later, I think my team could have been better served by such a move.

 

 

My best pick, and another pick by someone else I thought was solid!

My best pick based on value is Latavius Murray in the 11th. I know everyone has a chubby for Dalvin Cook, but he went in the 5th round, before Tevin Coleman and Spencer Ware. That’s too rich for my blood. I don’t think Murray is just gonna sit on the sidelines at all, they gave him a lot of money and he’s a solid player. If Dalvin is a total stud, at least Latavius will be goal line back and pick up the touchdowns. I think they eat into one another, plus Jerick McKinnon is still in the mix (no slouch), but in the 11th round - I like Murray a lot!

 

I liked Houdini’s Coby Fleener in the 13th round pick. No way that guy is lower than the 8th TE in leagues this season, and he has the upside to be a top 5 guy with Drew Brees as his QB. I also liked Jordan Matthews in the 9th by Stagg Party, I wanted him as a handcuff to my Alshon Jeffery (who is bound to get hurt) - there is nice value with that pick. Say Jones in the 10th, solid pick by Archer, Adam Thielen in the 11th by Waz, and Jacquizz in the 14th by Pop’s were all solid value picks as well.

 


Reconsidering an approach…

Pyro Lytics started the draft with 4 WRs and Waz started by drafting 3 wide receivers. Both guys were able to get solid backfields afterward. I think 4 of them before taking another position is a little over the top, but still seeing the teams they amassed after focusing on the wide receiver spot exclusively has made me reconsider going early on a TE. I like a balanced team that is filled with Tier 1 (or at least as many higher tiered players as possible) but if a future draft throws me a curve ball, I know I can play that WR/WR/WR hand and still get running backs that I would like to start. Lytics suffered at TE & QB for going that route, but Waz, not so much as he got a good QB and TE in my opinion later in the draft.

 

Hate it and loved it!

PK Ripper’s Jarvis Landry in the 3rd is too early for my liking. He was taken before a lot of guys who could do big things in 2017, such as Martavis Bryant and Allen Robinson. I just feel like you know what you are going to get with Landry, great and consistent player that is solid in PPR format - but he’ll never win you a week.

 

 I loved the Adrian Peterson pick in the 7th by Hartbeat. Lot’s of upside there and even if AP28 goes from All Day to No Way, he didn’t break the bank to throw that hall of fame bound man child dart against the wall. I could see Ingram getting traded before the season starts, Coach Sean Payton doesn’t like the guys attitude for whatever reason.           

 

2 teams I like a lot

I like Houdini’s team the most besides mine, mostly for watching reasons and the ceiling on his team is skyscraper high. I loved So Good Looking’s first 8 picks, and I like his team a great deal, just not a huge fan of Derrick Henry or Robert Kelley this season. But solid squad for sure, he’ll smack a number of teams around on a weekly basis with those horses - lot’s of Tier 1 players in his starting lineup.

 

Overall grade for my team

I’d give my team a B-, a couple missteps were made that I would take back if I could do them over, but my squad is still consistent and potent at the same time. This is why you do mock draft’s in June, so you can find out which picks you missed out on and which players going to other teams stung the most. I’ll take getting stung during a mock than in a real draft for pride and money any day.

 

What did you learn from this mock…

I guess I learned something that I already knew, when I want a guy - just go for him, even if you feel like he may come back to you, in fantasy football (both mocks and in real life), it seems like the guy you really want always gets taken if you stretch it out and try to get him later. Go get what you want, no matter what.

 

  

Pop’s Thoughts:

 

Best pick you made during the draft– I love Duke Johnson in the 10th. With the improvements to the O-Line and what he did last year he is a steal in 10th in a PPR league.

 

Best pick another team made (where & why) -  Houdini took Bryant in the 3rd which is higher than I thought he would go, but when you look at the wrap no way was he coming back to him. So, might as well take him there. I suspect that circumstance will drive up his ADP I bet by the time August rolls around it will be a high 3rd.

 

An approach you noticed that made you potentially rethinking your future approach, or something you might have done different – Team 1 “so Good Looking” Instead of taking a RB or a sub-par WR why not take the best QB and TE along with the #1 RB. WR is easiest to fill in later. I think if I have the #1 spot in any draft this year I may do that. 

 

Biggest surprise picks you loved or didn't agree with – Like I said earlier I was a bit surprised by Bryant but big one was Hopkins at 1.12 when Dez, Nelson, Hilton, and Thomas are all still on board.

 

Your Least Favorite Pick (if you could have it back). I am so used to drafting with people who take QBs early I thought waiting till the 5th to take Breese was a steal but looking back I should have took Adams there and waited even more on QB. I was waiting and waiting on TE had my eyes locked in on Doyle. My pick came in the 10th I knew team 1 had Gronk so I thought I would take Duke first then Doyle on the wrap, I was wrong, he took Doyle to backup Gronk ended with Ertz. That sucked.

 

Team besides yours that you like best (make sure to answer this one everyone) – I like team 1 a lot but a lot of injury risk. Heartbeat in the 7-hole ended with a good team. I like well-balanced teams and he took not the best players but a great mix.

 

What overall grade (A-F) would you give your team. I like the team pretty good, not the best I have ever done but not the worse give it a B.

 

What was your strategy? -  I always try to get a balanced team. I did that for the most part taking 2 RB and 2 WR in first 4. With my last few picks I am looking for Loto tickets. Locket is a bit of a question mark health wise but love my late round fliers.

 

What did you learn from this mock (if anything). - The adage be the first to take a QB or the last is still a thing. If you are at the top of the draft odds are you will not get a top 5 WR, make other plans. Bryant is going to go high. He may climb out of a value range and he will have to perform at the ceiling.

 

  

So Good Looking’s Thoughts:

I was blessed to have the first overall pick which in my opinion already gave me a slight advantage. My first three picks are clearly off the charts. Overall I see my team as either the best team or definitely top three at the least with my overall grade of an A-.


My favorite pic was Golden Tate late in the fourth round, I feel he is an absolute steal in PPR draft. A couple of pics that I was torn on goes as follows: when I chose Edelman it was between him and Devante Adams. I wanted the Adams/Rogers combo, but ultimately settled for Edelman because I'm a patriots fan and he is almost as good looking as me. I figured I could also target Randall Cobb later and plus Houdini had him in his career year beware article. 


The other wide receiver debate I was torn on was between Kelvin Benjamin and Brandon Marshall. I don't like anything about Kelvin or cam Newton or the Carolina Panthers, but I had him as a rookie and ultimately went with the younger guy, maybe his big ass can grab those touchdowns. Obviously wide receiver is my weakest spot, just wondering if I chose one or both of those other guys if it would make my team any stronger in the wide receiver department. With that being said, clearly I am stacked in every other area.


A couple of other thoughts about my draft goes as follows: I love Mark Ingram falling to me in the late 6th/early seventh, I feel in PPR he fell way too far. And even if he gets traded, I would be content with rolling the dice wherever he lands. I loved my back to back picks with Theo Riddick and Derek Henry as depth, obviously if DeMarco Murray goes down I just hit the lottery. I also loved my Jack Doyle pick, I feel eventually when Gronk gets hurt, I will still be pretty solid. And finally I love my Cole Beasley pick at the very end of the draft. He could potential be a target machine especially with Dez's tough schedule.


A couple of other teams that I think are very strong is Waz. I am actually a wide receiver guy and I love his first three picks, although Allen Robinson absolutely stinks, but as third round value it's OK. I am a fan of Crowwell and if Powell does as well as I think he will, I like his squad.


I also like Houdini's, Staggs, & D-rx teamas well as the 3rd team rounding out the playoffs of 6 teams. I would say these four teams are a little above average and give each team a solid grade of a B.


Lastly, pyrolytics & the archer clearly have the worst team's in this draft! Not sure if they were drunk or busy throughout the four days of drafting, but both of them should be slightly embarrassed and should no longer be part of pyromaniac. Lol (just kidding guys, but both your teams definitely stink)

 

Thanks again, I had a blast and let's do it again, but this time give me a different pick than number one. 

 

 

Wheeler’s Thoughts:

 

It’s quite amazing to be invited to mock draft with people I’ve been admiring for years. This year has been quite special with opportunities to compete and collaborate with well-respected people in the industry. To be able to practice (mock), and quite probably used as a reference, for professionals that I’ve been listening to for advice and entertainment is quite humbling. I feel like I just got called up from triple-A to the majors for a spot-start, after two years of being invisible in single-A ball – sorry, baseball reference, won’t happen again.

 

When entering any draft the first thing I do after glancing over the competitors is look at the scoring system, roster size, and starters at each position. This is a PPR draft, but there are plenty of sharks in the water and sharks usually swim in groups, meaning they will all probably have similar philosophies. It’s always my philosophy to zig when others zag, not only in fantasy, but in reality as well, quite often the reason why I get in trouble a lot.

 

I’m going to approach this draft as I would approach a standard draft, in the sense that I’m not going to target those pass-catching backs, I’ll let the heavy-workload guys fall to me. I will draft the requisite WR’s to get the job done, but I’m not going to chase guys like Edelman and Landry just because they are usually heavily targeted. The consensus is of the belief that last year was a down year for WR’s in general, but I see it as a down year for the top WR’s and a very solid year for the number two and three wr’s. I probably won’t have many if any of the big name WR’s, I’ll look for those under-the-radar, ho-hum WR’s that just seem to be in the top 24 by the end of the year.

 

One of the things I need to do for this mock is to get myself out of the best-ball mindset. In best-ball I look for those guys that are more boom-bust because I want as many top-performers week-to-week as I can get. If you look for the consistent players in best-ball (Frank Gore) you are generally consistent and among the top half at the end of the season, but in best-ball there are no playoffs, its win or bust, and you don’t have to choose a line-up each week so carrying the highly volatile players is actually beneficial.

 

In your regular office or home league we are looking for consistency, we don’t want to have to make tough decisions every week, so I’m generally looking for guys that I know are going to put up 10+ points a week. One of the references I will use for this is 4for4 Stud-Bust report and player “heat maps” created by Tod Burros. Instead of looking for the players with the greatest number of huge weeks, I’ll be looking more for the guys with good-solid weeks. I’ll be focused more on yards than touchdowns, just because we can’t consistently predict TD’s and TD’s tend to regress to a league norm.

 

I’m trying to give these an honest look here for their draft kit so I’m going to keep it pretty basic and straight forward, draft a playoff team and acknowledge there will be opportunity to make moves if this were a real league.

 

I have the third pick overall and that comes with a decision, believe it or not. Everyone seems to be jumping on those top three RB’s without blinking an eye, then making up for it with going heavy WR in the next few rounds. I would like to go with Antonio Brown, but as I said, I’m taking more of the standard approach, and AB could have Martavis Bryant vulturing quite a bit of his high-upside. I went with Elliot because it’s the right pick, even with a possible suspension quietly lingering within the realm of possibility.

 

The first six picks go as I would expect, and McCoy going at seven only confirms how I feel about him. Back in February and March I was doing everything in my power to keep McCoy out of the top 10-12 of my overall rankings, but was really struggling to do it. Last year we were able to draft him in the third round and ended up with a top-5 RB which is why he was on a large percentage of championship teams. This year we have to pay for his value, but it certainly should be there.

 

AJ Green going before Mike Evans is a bit of a surprise, but totally understandable. AJ has been over 1000 yards every year of his career until he fell just shy of the mark last year due to injury, and he could have come back to reach it, but the Bengals were already eliminated and didn’t want to risk further injury.  DeAndre Hopkins at the twelve spot is surprising to me, but when you are at the turn and won’t see a pick for 22 turns you grab “your guy” when you have the chance. Hopkins is a decision I have chosen against at the 2/3 turn each time I’ve been there. I could see myself drafting him in the mid-late third, just because the Texans replaced a weak-armed QB with an even weaker-armed QB. Last year we thought Hopkins was QB proof because he succeeded with Hoyer, but come to find out that Hoyer is actually a pretty good QB when he can make it to the field.

  

Nothing stands out as abnormal in the second until I get to Lamar Miller, Miller is not the bell-cow back the Texans were hoping he was last year. With the added touches his efficiency went down and I think we also found out that he needs an above average offensive line to be successful. I also just listened to Jeff Ratcliffe rail on Miller as someone he’s staying away from on his PFF Fantasy Football podcast. (link to podcast) Ratcliffe sights Lamar Miller’s league low 1.99 yards after contact as the reason he is staying away from him at anything near his current ADP.

 

I went with Todd Gurley with the 2.10 pick, this is the first time I’m picking from the 3-spot, but I have been the 1.1 and 1.2 multiple times. At this turn I’ve been loading up on Baldwin and D. Thomas and loving it. With my top options at this pick being Gronk, Baldwin, Thomas, and Gurley, I look at my tiers and see that after Gurley there’s a huge drop-off. The next few RB’s in ADP are rookies, and the next highest RB’s in my rankings are Hyde and Crowell, which I’m really not interested in until the 4th round. The WR’s in this format are really bunched together with a large group in this tier; I’m just higher on these two because of my perceived reliability week-to-week. Gronk is an obvious risk because of his health, but certainly worth this pick, but I know I can find solid consistency later, which will make-up for the value I would gain here.

 

Obviously the three players I just mentioned were all taken at the turn, so next time I might switch my decision just to see if Gurley would make it around the turn. Coming back I took Watkins, and obvious injury risk, but if he’s healthy for the whole season he certainly has top5 WR potential. I also have Watkins and Gurley on my orphan dynasty team so I’m hoping for rebound years from both of them. My real decision at the third round pick was between Watkins and Allen Robinson. After Robinson’s year last year I really expect a bounce-back, but the offense will be going through, what appears to be major changes. The offensive line is still shaky, but they now have three functional backs in the backfield and a defense that will keep them close in most games. I look for them to eat the clock and spread the ball around a bit more. Watkins only competition for targets is a rookie slot receiver, a below average TE and a couple of fullbacks. I definitely only  had my eye on WR for this pick and Cooks will be way to inconsistent with all of the options in NE. I see a drop in targets for Landry with the emergence of Ajayi and possibly Devante Adams, as well as the addition of Julius Thomas, just not enough yards or end-zone targets there. I like Martavis Bryant, but I wouldn’t take him as my WR1, I would be all over him in the 4th as a WR2.

 

All of the WR’s that went in the 4th were on my radar, especially Keenan Allen. During this round I was driving back to Baltimore, from NY, thinking about Keenan Allen the whole time. Yes, he’s one beer, blunt, or accidental food or cold medicine away from being out of the NFL, but he also has the potential to be a top 3 WR. Oh well, Allen was taken right before me so I’ll take Fitzgerald there any day, he is a pillar of consistency and always under-drafted. He’ll probably start hot once again and tail-off in the second half, but as long as I expect it I’ll be fine. By then the waiver-wire should have a couple of gems that I can grab.

 

Coming back in the 5th I took Devante Adams just because he had the most value, Adams is currently going as the WR19 in MFL10 behind Landry. This matters because Adams is not a heavy receptions guy, so if he’s going at WR19 in PPR people must recognize his value. Adams was extremely TD dependent last year and we have to expect that to regress with the addition of Bennett, and we should expect some progression from Cobb’s poor output last year. I expect Adams will have a slow start, but matching him with Fitzgerald could produce a quality “ham & egg” combo. I normally use my “ham & egg” phrase to describe players on the same team, but I have a feeling it could work here too.

 

Other guys I was looking at in the 5th included Andrew Luck, Jimmy Graham, and Emmanuel Sanders. I came into the draft not wanting to draft a QB until after the 6th and I have to see undeniable value if I take one any earlier. Luck certainly has that undeniable value and in the 5th, he could certainly be a league winner, but in one-QB leagues I can play match-ups and/or stream the position to get quality points from week-to-week. Luck has also had off-season shoulder surgery and he is non-committal as to whether he’ll be back at the start of camp. This injury has plagued him in the past, so expect we won’t see him in any live-action until right before the third pre-season game, which could mean that he’ll be a little rusty to start the season. I’m not necessarily staying away from him, just looking in a different direction here. Jimmy Graham and Emanuel Sanders are just a round too early for me here, I like them, but they are not guys I’m reaching for and just think that Adams has slid too far here. In an FFPC league I’m in, with some sharks, Adams went in the third round, 3.07

 

I like Houdini’s 5/6 turn with Garcon and Ware, Ware’s value has dropped in the past few weeks for no reason. There are so many people that are high on Kareem Hunt because of some perceived Andy Reid magic formula, want to know his magic formula? It’s talent, which Hunt lacks. Sure, Hunt could become a very good pass-catching back, he showed that his senior year at Toledo, but its Toledo, what competition did he face that is anything close to the level of NFL line-backers?  Ware will see more touches than last year as stated by Andy Reid in April and reiterated by ESPN Chiefs reporter Adam Teicher in May. Garcon might have been a bit early, but he certainly wouldn’t have made it back to him, so again, at the turn you’ve got to grab “your guy.”

 

With Crowder, Snead, and Diggs gone, along with the WR’s I already mentioned, as well as, Blount and Gillislee going right before me I had a tough decision to make in the sixth round. The only value I really saw was Mark Ingram or Brandon Marshall, I like Ingram in this format, I believe he will be the third down back if Peterson is back to being Peterson and the primary back if Peterson is does not return to form. I wanted to see if Peterson might slide to me at the next turn so I passed on Ingram after drafting them both in a similar situation in a previous mock with these guys. I really would have taken Marshall here, but noticed that two of my WR’s already had the same bye week. I don’t normally gaf about bye weeks especially in a mock, but I am trying to give these guys a real look to how people will construct their teams. I feel most people would recognize three of your top four WR’s having the same bye week as an issue.

 

I went with Eddie Lacy because Ratcliffe (PFF) was still in my ear talking about Lacy’s production on a per-carry basis and sighting his quality yards-after-contact numbers. He has been losing weight and I don’t think Rawls will be any sort of vulture if Lacy continues to work and stay healthy. I really prefer Prosise as the back to own in Seattle and will grab him if he comes back to me, but Lacy should be the more consistent end-zone threat. Prosise would certainly have been in consideration for my pick here if he had been healthy last season and able to show us his full potential. Lacy’s current MFL10 ADP is 75th overall, so if I waited for him around the turn I would have been right on target.

 

The whole time I was making the sixth round decision I knew I was going with Wilson in the seventh. In a 4pt per TD league I want a guy that rushes for TD’s once in a while. Wilson was hobbled with ankle issues for the first half of last season, lowering his rushing stats, but I expect him to finally be able to put it together for 16 weeks this year. Wilson’s current MFL10 ADP is 78, so again not far away from where I have to get him.

 

I’m now sitting here in the eighth hoping a few TE’s come off the board so I can feel secure in drafting the ones I want.  I’m looking to get Ebron and Ertz on the turn, locking up the position for the season and streaming them in and out. I almost always draft two TE’s, I just see value in being able to bounce between two valuable TE’s throughout the season. In leagues with only sixteen roster spots and two of those spots being used on your K and DST this can be a little difficult. Carrying an extra TE means I’m only going to have six bench spots for QB, RB, and WR, this is also why I prefer leagues with much larger roster sizes.  Hunter Henry and Martellus Bennett come off the board, leaving Rudolph, Walker and possibly Doyle to buffer my guys.

 

I also have my eye on Desean Jackson and Doug Martin, and as I type this Jackson comes off the board, but he was taken by PyroHartbeat, who just Tweeted about Martin. Apparently he’s concerned about Martin’s 3-game suspension to start the season, I’m not. I have three starting RB’s to get me through week 5. Two of them do have a week 6 bye though; Martin should be in full form by then, I’m happy to take him as my RB4. Martin isn’t a pass-catching the pass-catching back that most people look for in this format, but when he is at the top of his game he is very consistent with high-yardage totals. With Rudolph and Walker still lingering around I’ll grab a TE on the bounce-back and hope for the best.

 

Ebron in the ninth feels like a reach with several other options on the board, but if not all of them go I might just grab one of them on the way back. To me Ebron is the most consistent of the remaining TE’s and he has the most upside, he only had two TD’s last year and Boldin is vacating STAT I NEED TO CHECK end-zone targets. Even if those targets are split evenly 5-ways he should see two more weeks as a top 10 TE. I suspect he’ll do better than that though.

So glad I made this pick before I heard Stagg Party talk highly about him on the Wednesday podcast, covering his rankings. I drafted Ebron sooner than his ADP, but that should be rising quickly.

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/eric-ebron/

 

In the 10th I was really hoping Tyrell Williams would fall to me and when Waz finally stopped drafting WR’s I thought I had a chance, but he was snagged by PK, then Cobb was taken by D-Rx. I decided to go with Britt because he should see WR1 level targets coming off of a career year with horrible QB play. I’m usually not a fan of WR’s in their first year with a new team, but he’ll have a chance to build a rapport with whoever is going to play QB this year and there are plenty of vacated targets with Pryor leaving.

 

 I was hoping to get Ertz on the bounce-back in the 11th, I think the Ebron/Ertz combo creates dominance at the position and in the 11th round the value of what is left has greatly diminished. The player I see with the best remaining value was Kenneth Dixon. Many believe he is going to come back week 5 and slide in as the Ravens RB1. I don’t really see it because we certainly didn’t see that last year, but around week4-5 I’ll probably be getting offers for him as people are fighting for scraps on the waiver wire (supposing this was a real league). There was no WR that I found interesting enough,  that I couldn’t wait until the next round for.

 

I was trying to throw a little shade on Stagg-Party’s squad with a little backhanded compliment on Twitter, but he didn’t bite. Through 11 picks I saw Stagg and Pop’s having the best teams, but when I saw Stagg grabbed Jamal Charles I was like “wwwhhhhaaattt???” I thought the whole fantasy community had written him off by now. But then, the very next morning I’m listening to the 4for4 podcast and John Paulsen is reading a report that Charles looks and feels like his old-self. It’s probably just faux news on a slow day, but I’m at least happy I didn’t cut him on my orphan dynasty team.

 

Ted Ginn is another WR switching teams, but his vertical ability will match great with Brees and this offense. I’ll probably only be looking to start Ginn once or twice so I’m not really playing a guessing game on whether to start him or not, just hoping for the best if I need him.

 

I’m not a fan of drafting two QB's with roster sizes this small, but Ben in the 13th just seems to be a ridiculous value. When he plays at home he’s almost always a top5 QB, I like having options like that.

 

I always go for Vinatieri in leagues that have kickers, just because we’re the same age, and he kicks in a dome for a high powered offense. The Giants DST is a complete homer pick, but they absolutely have value for sacks and interceptions. With their tough schedule I’ll probably be dropping them quickly though, other defenses I like that are always available late are the Chargers and Raiders.

 

With my last pick I was going to take Darren McFadden as a handcuff to Elliot, I am aware that handcuffing is not usually a smart strategy, but this pick is essentially going to be my first drop anyway. I was also considering Austin Hooper or Julius Thomas, Hooper has high upside, as we saw in the playoffs last season, but he also could have been just a flash in the pan. Thomas is a big cog in the Gase hype train, he has assistant coaches saying he’ll have 10+ TD’s this year.

 

 I went with Marqise Lee as my last round pick, he really started to emerge last year and show us why Jacksonville took him in the first round three years ago. I believe his emergence happened because he’s moved into the slot more, and if Tom Coughlan has anything to do with how this team is going to play they will pepper the slot like the Giants did with Victor Cruz several years ago.

  

Overall I give myself a B-, I’m not sure I have a playoff team, and that’s all I was really going for. By playoff time I would probably have a different DST and kicker, only one of the QB’s, and could have a different TE. Usually, in my ‘home leagues’ the waiver wire will be so nice that I will have close to 50% turnover, not so sure that would be the case here though. I feel as though this is a strong team, if healthy, and if not, I should have plenty of reinforcements by week 4-5 at RB and WR’s are the easier grab off the waiver wire. I really don’t think that any one pick stood out as a great pick because pretty much everyone was being drafted right where they should be, and Pop’s was sniping the heck out of me.

I think if I could have any pick back it would be Doug Martin, not that I don’t think he will be good again, but because he fallen further and there were still good WR’s worth taking in those rounds. I didn’t realize I would be able to get Dixon as late as I did, he fell two full rounds after West was taken. Boys, Terrance West went to my alma mater, he sucks, he was cut by the Browns, he will not have a full workload at any point, even with Dixon out the first four games.

 

I don’t want to offend anyone with ‘hot takes’ about their team, but just some initial thoughts on each:

 

1 – So good looking – Started with the #1’s strategy drafting Bell, Rodgers, and Gronk, I like it, but he left himself very vulnerable at WR and we are going with the premise that we must start three. I don’t like Edelman, Benjamin or White this year so I see him scrambling all year there.

 

2 - Pop's – I mentioned where he sniped me four times so I like several of his players, but I’m not a fan of Mixon this year (dynasty=hell yea) and the 12th, 13th, and 14th picks I don’t see returning any value, he will probably dump them right before they produce at all.

 

4 - Pyro Lytics – starting with 4 WR in a PPR league is pretty common, but Lytics is the only one in this draft that does it. It’s a solid strategy when only one or two people are doing it, in many drafts last year there would be 3-5 people trying it, sucking the value out of the WR position. I would have switched the Hunt pick with Gore or Riddick and would have stopped at 5 RB’s. I do like Booker, but not that early and not now that I’m hearing great things about Charles. I would have gone with another TE or first QB instead of Joe Williams as well, I don’t think he is worth pounding the table for.

 

5 - d-Rx® - I like his first five picks, building a solid core with upside, but I’m not crazy about Corey Davis with Big Dick Decker’s arrival, Perine will be splitting the load most of the year which suits him perfectly, but it’s not good for fantasy. Cam Newton isn’t going to be running as much anymore with them completely re-vamping the offense, so his upside is no-longer what he did in 2015. The Tyrod Taylor pick in the 15th is HOT though, like show her off to your friends before she realizes she’s too good for you HOT! I don’t really give a crap about DST’s, but I’ve been drafting a good amount of the KC DST like d-Rx did here, but I think we are forgetting that with Hill’s promotion to WR1, he’s probably not going to be returning as much, if at all. All around a very solid team, definitely a playoff contender as long as Murray and Lynch live up to expectations.

 

6 - PK Ripper – I don’t like Miller in the second, in fact I wouldn’t draft him until the 4th or 5th if at all, his workload is going to be cut down and he’ll be facing stacked boxes with a rookie or a no-name at QB. The 4th thru 8th round picks are great, love the Rivers-TyWill stack and Samuel and Dunbar late. Olsen is a solid TE and he has two very solid QB’s, but I think he would have a dilemma each week about who to start at RB2 and WR3.

 

7 – Hartbeat – The Fournett, Moncrief, and Tucker in the 11th turn me off, but otherwise this is a real solid team, the 7th-10th round picks really fill in any holes created by earlier high-risk picks and make this team a solid contender.

 

8 - Anna Marcus – drafting both Cooper and Crabtree isn’t something I would do that early in the draft, and I can see her scrambling for an RB2 all year, or at least have a difficult time deciding which one to start. Only drafting four WR and pilling up RB can be a solid strategy, but I just don’t think she picked the right players to pull it off.

 

9 – Waz – Evans and Nelson is a sick start, but I would have preferred a RB or Kelce in the third, don’t get me wrong, there’s great value with Robinson, I even considered him when picking Watkins. Just look at the other WR’s he gets later, he doesn’t need Robinson at all. I also would have preferred Gore to Powell, but he’s a Jets fan so what do you expect? I like the way he snagged two good pass-catching backs late in Sproles and Thompson, but they are much more attractive in best-ball because we won’t be able to accurately predict when to start them.

 

10 - Stagg Party – A+, now that I hear the news on Charles there isn’t a single pick I don’t like in the round where he got them. He didn’t need Yeldon at the end, I might have gone with a back-up QB or TE because there are still juicy ones out there, but totally understand getting the position with lower supply and greater demand.

 

11 – Houdini – Dez will have the rough match-ups all year and he does not do well against the top cover-corners. McCaffrey’s touches will most likely come in the short passing game which doesn’t fit Newton’s style at all, they will have to get continuity in the pre-season and Newton just started throwing this week after shoulder surgery back in March. I like the Martavis Bryant pick, although I think he paid top-dollar for him. Garcon and Ware should be fantastic value picks. Carr was too early and Perkins is ehh, but I like the next five picks until he gets to take another Giant, and that’s coming from a Giants fan. Not a bad team, probable playoff contender.

 

12 – Archer – Now he probably thinks I’m going to tear his team apart because of a running Woodhead joke, (note to self, never make a prediction at 4:25), but no, I’m going to rip it apart because he drafted some potentially crappy players. Didn’t we learn about drafting Hopkins in the first last year? I’m off TyFluke Hill unless they keep him returning kicks and punts full time, in which case he’ll probably get hurt. Hunter Henry is ehh, as long as Gates is still there, Jeremy Hill in the 9th? YO! Pass dat $#it dis way!!! He drafts kicker and defense too early, and I get no thrill with his late round flyers.

Better luck next time

 

 

 

 

 

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