Week 3
September 19, 2017
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Chris Thompson

Washington Redskins

Thompson Flashes


Thompson only had three carries, but two of them went for scores, including a 61-yard scamper. He finished with six touches for 106 yards and two scores. Rob Kelley could miss time with the injury and Thompson is lightening in a bottle.

Fantasy Goo: Thompson is the back to own in PPR leagues, his floor is solid with the passing downs work and he will probably average five carries a game if Kelley (ribs) is out.


09/19/17, 07:08 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: pyromaniac.com


Chris Carson

Seattle Seahawks

Seattle Backfield Jumble


Carson was the man at running back for the Seahawks, running the ball 20 times for 93 yards, and he caught one pass for 7 yards to give him 100 total yards on the day. Lacy is a non-factor, and Rawls does not look like he will be able to keep Carson from getting the Lion share of carries going forward.

Fantasy Goo: Carson will probably be the number one waiver add in your league, and if you have the number one pick you NEED to add Carson now.


09/19/17, 07:06 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: pyromaniac.com


D'Onta Foreman

Houston Texans

The Foreman Is On The Job


The Texans want to get Foreman more involved in the offense, and this week he had 12 carries for 40 yards. He is going to be in a 60/40 split with Lamar Miller, but there is upside if Miller goes down. His workload should only increase as the season moves along.

Fantasy Goo: If he’s still available, if you have space on your roster, and if you can wait a few weeks for him to take even more of the role, then this is your guy to grab. Foreman could emerge as the Texans primary back by the end of the year.


09/19/17, 07:03 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: pyromaniac.com


Rashard Higgins

Cleveland Browns

They Call Him "Hollywood"


Browns placed WR Corey Coleman on injured reserve with a broken hand. Coleman underwent surgery on his broken right hand Monday. Higgins played 54-of-71 snaps against the Ravens, 12 more than Kenny Britt. He also turned 11 targets into seven catches for 95 yards. He was just promoted off the practice squad on Saturday, so he could be a one hit wonder.

Fantasy Goo: Normally I would say to just put him on your watch list, but he could emerge into what we thought Kenny Britt would be. Britt is playing like he doesn’t give a crap right now, which is giving Higgins opportunity and with Coleman out for at least eight weeks there might not be anyone else to throw to.


09/19/17, 07:00 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Will Fuller

Houston Texans

Strong Out, Fuller In


Will Fuller (collarbone) returned to practice on Monday. It's a potential sign Fuller could return for Week 3. The Houston Chronicle reported in early August that Fuller would likely miss "2-3 months," but Fuller is an elite athlete in optimal condition, and he is capable of beating a lengthy timetable like that. The Texans also placed WR Jaelen Strong on waivers and the Jaguars have claimed him.

Fantasy Goo: It’s too bad the Texans still don’t have a QB. Fuller could add a valuable weapon for Watson, but I don’t see Watson being a productive QB that can maintain two WR’s with weekly fantasy value. Keep Fuller on the watch list just in case Watson proves he can produce or they shift to a free agent QB.


09/19/17, 06:57 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


A.J. Green

Cincinnati Bengals

Green looking forward to Green Bay


A.J. Green has struggled to get going this season, with 10 receptions for 141 yards and no touchdowns. This week he faces a Packers defense that could be without Mike Daniels and Ahmad Brooks. Julio Jones had 108 yards against the Packers last week, and without the pass rush of Daniels Green should be able to make more plays downfield this week. The Bengals are looking for their first touchdown of the season, and Dalton wants it to be a passing touchdown to A.J.


09/19/17, 06:57 PM CDT by Houdini

Source: www.pro-football-reference.com


Le'Veon Bell

Pittsburgh Steelers

Bell looking for a breakthrough against the Bears


Le'Veon has only totaled 138 yards with no scores through the first two weeks. Owners should be feeling good about his matchup this week against the Bears. Chicago is already without LB Jerrell Freeman, and last week lost his replacement Nick Kwiatkowski. The Bears are a mess and Bell should be able to exploit those weaknesses for big gains this week.


09/19/17, 06:52 PM CDT by Houdini

Source: www.pro-football-reference.com

Carolina Panthers

Carolina In My Mind


Implied Team Totals: Panthers 25, Bills 18
Cam looked rusty last week, he was literally shaking his arm after passes like there was rust in his shoulder joint. Christian McCaffrey out-snapped Jonathan Stewart 70% to 43% in Week 1, but Stewart out-touched McCaffrey 20 to 18, and Stewart scored the backfield’s lone TD on a red-zone reception where McCaffrey served as a decoy. As Carolina is favored by a touchdown at home, this sets up as another positive-script game where Stewart can log a similar if not superior workload to his dynamic rookie counterpart, giving both Panthers backs RB2/flex appeal. I don’t like any of the receivers, Benjamin is only ranked within the startable range because of the implied opportunity and what should be a prime match-up.


09/17/17, 10:30 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

Buffalo Bills

Buffalo @ Carolina


Implied Team Totals: Panthers 25, Bills 18
Tyrod is a solid sit for me on the road against a strong Carolina defense that silenced the 49ers on the road last week. McCoy will get 25 or so carries so I’m starting him in season-long, but his upside is capped so he’s a fade in DFS this week. Charles Clay led Buffalo in targets and caught his eighth TD in 29 games as a Bill. Last year’s Panthers allowed the league’s second-most fantasy points to tight ends, a position to which their Cover-3 zone can be vulnerable.


09/17/17, 10:28 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

New England Patriots

New England @ New Orleans


Implied Team Totals: Patriots 31, Saints 25
Last year the Saints allowed the second-most points (454) and the most passing yards (4380), the Superdome is now known as football’s version of Coors Field for its elevation of offensive output. My top DFS plays are Brady, of course, Cooks in a revenge game, Gronk if you are ok with paying up at TE, and the way to get Gronk in a DK line-up is to play James White at RB2 or flex. White is cheap, and played the most snaps of the RB’s last week, he could have around 5 receptions for around 35-50yds and cross your fingers for a TD.


09/17/17, 10:12 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

New Orleans Saints

New Orleans Hosting New England


Implied Team Totals: Patriots 31, Saints 25
The Saints, and Brees are a different animal at home than the road. Alex Smith shredded the Pats last week and even on short rest (6 days, compared to NE’s 10 days) Brees should see similar numbers. I feel good about starting Michael Thomas or Fleener, they should see the bulk of red-zone targets. The RB situation is in flux so the only RB I’m considering is Alvin Kamara, he’s obviously not a cash game play, but at $3500 he could pay-off in a big way.


09/17/17, 10:09 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars have alot to do to bounce back to fantasy relevance in week 2


With Blake Bortles playing the role as "game manager" it certainly puts a cap on the Jags offense as a whole,sure Leonard Fournette can be counted on to get the Lions share of work but at the cost of the passing game especially after losing AR15 who is left to count on ?
Blake threw for a meager 125 and a TD in week one's victory over Houston,but went 11 for 21 pass attempts. (21 attempts yoikes)
It seems the lack of faith in Bortles has everyone wondering if you can even start any pass catcher on this team.
The improvement of the defense should help but if history tells us anything it is that the Jags will be playing from behind and will be forced to throw. So again who's catching the ball in Jacksonville week 2?

Allen Hurns caught 3 out of 4 targets for 42 yards in the Jaguars' season opener and should be the one to take on the WR1 duties. He did show some fantasy value two years ago and is most likely to be the receiver with the most upside and is currently WR 49 on pyro rankings.

Marqise Lee was off the marq week 1 and had 4 balls thrown his way and failed to haul in a single catch, but he is in line to be the WR2. Maybe the increased workload and motivation of being more involved in the game plan will be the trick for Lee who's is WR 50 on pyro rankings.

Marcedes Lewis the tight-end failed to make a single reception of his two targets vs.the Texans. He could be called on to make up some of the loss of ARob but I'm not holding my breath. He only had 169 yards and a single touchdown all of last season Lewis is currently holding down TE 47 on the current pyro rankings.

Fantasy Goo: So if your like me the approach in Jacksonville is wait and see what happens Sunday vs Tennessee and hopefully we get the answers we are looking for by end of week three.


09/17/17, 05:13 AM CDT by PK Ripper

Source: pyromaniac.com

Green Bay Packers

Packers @ Falcons


Ty Montgomery played 75 of82 snaps, he’s playing a team that struggles to cover RBs and there’s a high over under. After allowing a league-high 14.5 receiving points per game to opposing backfields in 2016, Atlanta allowed a Week 1 high 23.1 points to the Chicago backfield receiving. Aaron Rodgers has thrown 10 touchdowns with at least three in each game and averaged 29.3 points per game. Randall Cobb accounted for 32 percent of the Green Bay targets Week 1.

Fantasy Goo: Start everyone mentioned above and Jordy. I guess Adams and Bennett are solid plays too, but I usually stay away from them in general, very TD dependent. This should be a shoot-out in Atlanta’s new stadium, and I expect Ty Montgomery to have the best value at $5800 on DK.


09/16/17, 06:28 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Akeem Hunt

Houston Texans

Double Hunt in KC


“Chiefs are releasing CJ Spiller again, per sources. This makes room on the 53 for RB Akeem Hunt, who can contribute on lots of special teams.”

Fantasy: Ok, this means absolutely nothing, but if you have that guy in your league that keeps sending annoying trades, you should pick up Akeem and send the guy an offer when you know he’s been drinking. All he’ll see is Hunt KC, if you make the right offer. Ask for someone good, but don’t get greedy.


09/16/17, 06:24 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Michael Crabtree

Oakland Raiders

Crabtree is the WR1 on Oakland yet again


Crabtree is the WR1a for the Raiders against a strong Jets defense in Oakland, but it’s the first home game of the year and they’ve already shown the ability to put up points. This game should end in a blowout which means more red-zone targets for Crabby, something that he didn’t see in Week 1. Look for another seven reception performance for around 100 yards and a touchdown.


09/16/17, 04:56 PM CDT by d-Rx

Source: www.pyomaniac.com


Derek Carr

Oakland Raiders

Great matchup this week


Carr was very efficient against the Titans on the road but will break out in a major way at home against the withering Jets defense. Tyrod Taylor posted 18.7 FF points in Week 1 against NYJ and Carr has better weapons at his disposal. Carr could easily be the top QB this week and will continue to be the steal of the draft.


09/16/17, 04:54 PM CDT by d-Rx

Source: www.pyomaniac.com


Amari Cooper

Oakland Raiders

Cooper scooper


Cooper had the big fantasy day with his 62 yards and a touchdown, but he had only five receptions on 13 targets! Something to be concerned about, but Amari also worked through a small knee injury. Use the eye-test in Week 2 to see if his efficiency improves, otherwise, Crabtree might re-take the WR1 spot on this powerful offense.


09/16/17, 04:54 PM CDT by d-Rx

Source: www.pyomaniac.com


Emmanuel Sanders

Denver Broncos

2 inches short of explosion


Sanders was so close to a massive fantasy day but was overthrown by inches on two red-zone targets on Monday night. Sanders and Demaryius will mimic each other’s stat lines through the season, but ‘Manny usually sees the softer coverage. Over the course of the season, Demaryius will see a larger total FF point sum, but itll be Sanders that wins you the week.


09/16/17, 04:53 PM CDT by d-Rx

Source: www.pyomaniac.com


Demaryius Thomas

Denver Broncos

Solid WR2 in all formats


Thomas will continue to be a solid WR2 especially in PPR leagues. Dallas is a similar test to the Chargers in defending receivers, so temper expectations for a breakout week, but you can definitely expect 6-8 receptions for just under 100 yards.


09/16/17, 04:52 PM CDT by d-Rx

Source: www.pyomaniac.com


C.J. Anderson

Denver Broncos

Anderson has Charles breathing down his neck...


Anderson rushed 20 times for 81 yards but was often replaced near the goal line and in long yardage situations. It was odd to see and may be a legitimate concern with Jamaal Charles in the back-up role. All CJ owners should think about stashing Charles on the bench. Dallas only allowed 9.6 and 3.5 FF points to Giant RBs so we should expect a similar output in Week 2, making CJ a flex candidate.


09/16/17, 04:50 PM CDT by d-Rx

Source: www.pyomaniac.com

2016 QB ADP Expectations

2016 QB ADP Expectations

Posted by Stagg Party on 08/24/16

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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When looking at players it is important to consider the range of outcomes for any given player. Each player has his own ceiling typically derived from career norms and current situation and it is commonly referred to as upside, what could happen if everything goes right. A player also has a mean outcome, which is his average, or what is most likely to happen. Finally, that same player has a floor, or what his lowest output could be on a weekly basis. These ranges all come into play on a seasonal basis as well as a weekly basis. The best fantasy players receive a high rating in each of these ranges, and it is why they are the best. Some players lower down the spectrum could have high upsides and low floors, making their range of outcomes wide and being one of those boom or bust candidates. Younger players also have yet to truly establish a baseline for performance, so their range of outcomes is a little murkier than guys who have been in the league for four or five seasons.

 

QBs Being Drafted at Ceiling

 

Ben Roethlisberger – Fantasypros ADP – QB 5 – Best Season – 300.8 – Seasons above 300.1 points – 1

 

Ben Roethlisberger is being absolutely drafted at his ceiling, selecting him as the fifth quarterback off the board gives you no room for disappointment and there are a number of reasons he could disappoint. First, over the last two seasons, he has averaged greater than five fantasy points more a game when Martavis Bryant played as opposed to games he missed. Roethlisberger also has mammoth home and road splits over the last three seasons, averaging 7 fantasy points more a game while at home. Ben still does have Antonio at his disposal, but outside of him the offense is looking like it has a lot more question marks then we expected, especially early in the season when Bell, Ladarius Green, and the aforementioned Bryant could all be missing from the lineup. Ben is also a guy who plays with reckless abandon that can lead to injuries, missing an average of 1.67 games a season over the course of his career. Add on that Big Ben’s 17.7 fantasy points a game last season falls more in line with QB10, it is hard to believe that Ben will have a positive ROI at seasons end.

 

Eli Manning - Fantasypros ADP – QB 10 – Best Season – 287.5 – Seasons above 272.4 points – 2

 

Eli Manning has just two seasons coming above 272 points, last season and 2011. He did nearly topple that number in 2014 as well, but is heavily reliant on Odell Beckham Jr. as he has averaged 23 fantasy points in 27 games with him in the lineup over the last three seasons and just under 16 fantasy points in 21 tilts without the explosive receiver. When you draft Manning however, you know that you will get 16 games out of him, but his 17.4 fantasy points per game over the last two seasons falls more in like with a QB12 than QB10. With offensive line issues remaining, and talent outside of Odell still unproven, Manning needs a lot of things to break his way to finish higher than QB10 at the end of next season.

 

Tony Romo - Fantasypros ADP – QB 12 – Best Season – 295.6 – Seasons above 267.5 points – 4

 

Tony Romo is currently being drafted as the 12th quarterback across seven different league hosting sites, and it seems like he is being overvalued. In 2014, Romo finisged as the 11th quarterback in fantasy and his 17.8 fantasy points a game fell in line with that. Tony’s best fantasy season came in 2007, when his 295 points were good for second best in the league, but due to the escalation of the leagues passing that would have ranked just seventh in the league. The Cowboys are also committed to running the ball after just spending the fourth overall pick on a running back. In 2014, Romo ranked 23rd in passing attempts and the Cowboys as a whole ranked second to last in attempts. With limited pass attempts, Romo will be a touchdown dependent quarterback for the ages.

 

Teddy Bridgewater - Fantasypros ADP – QB 21 – Best Season – 198.4 – Seasons above 187.5 points – 1

 

Teddy Bridgewater has loyal pundits at his back that talk up his ability whenever they get a chance and yet he hasn’t put it together for fantasy football success. Bridgewater has thrown just 28 touchdown passes across two seasons against 21 interceptions. Teddy has provided some rushing numbers to boost his fantasy prowess but not nearly enough to supplant that weak passing display through two seasons. Many say that AP has been holding Teddy and the offense back, but he averaged just 1 more fantasy point a game without him in the lineup over the last two seasons. The hope for Bridgewater is that their young offensive weaponry improves as they head further into their careers. In terms of fantasy points per game, Bridgewater’13 fantasy points a game wouldn’t even rank in the top-25 for quarterbacks over the last three seasons. Bridgewater is a guy I avoid at his price and I suggest you do the same.

 

QB ADP Expectations


Undervalued QBs

 

Drew Brees - Fantasypros ADP – QB 6 – Best Season – 387.6 – Seasons above 297.4 points – 6

 

Drew Brees is finally coming at a value in fantasy drafts after years of being a first and second round pick because of his sheer dominance. Now going in the fifth round Brees represents a value, especially when Big Ben comes off the board before him. Brees has arguably upgraded his supporting cast this offseason with Coby Fleener and Michael Thomas added in free agency and the draft respectively. Brees has a top offensive line, a plethora of weapons, and a playcaller who loves to air it out. Brees is also likely to return value at his ADP and the 18.8 fantasy point per game threshold of QB6 has been surpassed by Brees and incredible seven times.

 

Philip Rivers - Fantasypros ADP – QB 11 – Best Season – 288.3 – Seasons above 270.3 points – 4

 

Philip Rivers is a trendy pick to be a top ten quarterback again next season with the return of Ken Whisenhunt to run the offense. Rivers looks primed to have a bit of a resurgence again under Wiz who he had his career year under the former Tennessee head coach. Philip was on a tear to open last season, checking in as the number two quarterback over the first half of last season. Rivers should also have a deeper offensive skill group this season with Melvin Gordon flashing in preseason, Danny Woodhead his usual sturdy self, Keenan Allen returning from his ruptured kidney, Travis Benjamin coming over in free agency, Antonio Gates hopefully around for a whole season chasing the tight end touchdown record, and the young receivers getting another year under their belt. Wiz was able to skyrocket Rivers efficiency by focusing on the run game, expect that to happen again this season with Rivers able to get the ball out to his playmakers if their offensive line can remain somewhat healthy.

 

Matthew Stafford - Fantasypros ADP – QB 18 – Best Season – 339.3 – Seasons above 223.7 points – 5

 

Matthew Stafford was always a guy with unrealized potential after throwing for over 5,000 yards and 41 touchdowns in 2011. Since then he has been unable to reach those lofty heights despite putting up solid fantasy totals nearly every season. In 2012, Stafford finished as the 11th QB, in 2013 he was the seventh QB, 2014 saw him finish as the 15th quarterback, and last season saw him finish as QB8. Everyone must be attributing Stafford’s success solely to Calvin Johnson who has since retired and Stafford has been drafted as QB 18. Over the last three seasons, Johnson missed three games and Stafford averaged nearly 19 fantasy points a game, below his 22 points a game. That number shrinks by just a one point difference over the last two seasons, lets remember the guys that were there for Stafford to throw to outside of Megatron before Tate was added. With Marvin Jones, Golden Tate, Eric Ebron and a slew of capable receiving backs, Stafford arguably has one of the best supporting casts of his career. Stafford has five seasons blowing away the baseline set by his ADP, as well as five seasons above the 16 fantasy point per game threshold.

 

Matt Ryan - Fantasypros ADP – QB 20 – Best Season – 304.9 – Seasons above 202.1 points – 6

 

Ryan is coming off a down season that has destroyed his ADP to the point where he has become a value. In a down season, Ryan threw for 4,591 yards but turned it over more than ever before in his career and had the fewest touchdowns since his rookie season. Even though he underwhelmed his high ADP last season, he looks primed to blow it out of the water in 2016. Currently being drafted as the 20th quarterback off the board, Ryan’s expected fantasy points over the last three years are just 202.1, a number that he has surpassed in each of the last six seasons. Ryan should see an increase in his touchdown passes as the team is geared toward throwing the rock, and is arguably even better than last season as they added Mohamed Sanu and Austin Hooper during the offseason. With a top flight offensive line and one of the top wide receivers in football, expect Matt Ryan to return a positive to your teams in drafts this season. 

 

 

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by Stagg Party


  

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