May 22, 2018


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Eric Ebron

Detroit Lions

Ebron Could Use Some Luck

Colts signed TE Eric Ebron, formerly of the Lions, to a two-year contract. Coach Frank Reich called Ebron an "elite tight end."

The last time we saw Andrew Luck healthy (2016), the Colts used 2+ TE sets at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL and had the 6th-highest target share to TEs.

04/01/18, 11:32 AM CDT by Wheeler


Carlos Hyde

San Francisco 49ers

Hyde and Seek

Browns agreed to terms with RB Carlos Hyde, formerly of the 49ers, on a three-year, $15 million contract.

Obtaining Hyde has several trickle-down effects; first it replaces Crowell who signed with the Jets, it probably diminishes Duke Johnson’s value a bit. Hyde is a better all-around back than Crowell was and will certainly take over the goal-line work seeing that he’s got 20+ pounds on Duke. It also reduces the likelihood that Cleveland takes Saquon Barkley with the 4th pick in the draft. They will most likely look to draft a defensive player (Chubb) or trade down again.

04/01/18, 11:28 AM CDT by Wheeler


Jerick McKinnon

Minnesota Vikings

McKinnon Goes West For Gold-Rush

49ers agreed to terms with RB Jerick McKinnon, formerly of the Vikings, on a four-year, $30 million contract.

McKinnon averaged a ho-hum 3.8 yards a carry for the Vikings and scored three rushing touchdowns. By contrast, San Francisco's former lead runner, Carlos Hyde, averaged 3.9 yards an attempt in 2017 and had eight rushing touchdowns.

It appears as though Shanahan is enamored with McKinnon's athletic metrics, but I'm not so sure he was "pounding the table" to get him. This move could push the Niner's to cut Joe Williams.

04/01/18, 11:12 AM CDT by Wheeler


Mike Wallace

Baltimore Ravens

Eagles Keep Improving

Eagles signed WR Mike Wallace to a one-year contract.
Mike Wallace can still move posting a top five max speed among wide receivers last season. He will fill the void left by Torrey Smith as a speed vertical threat.

04/01/18, 11:08 AM CDT by Wheeler


Terrelle Pryor

Washington Redskins

Jets Searching For Weapons

Jets agreed to terms with WR Terrelle Pryor, formerly of Washington and Cleveland.

Second year in a row on a new team doesn’t really help Pryor's cause, but I like the idea of him on the field with Teddy Bridgewater at some point. I would imagine, with some creativity, the Jets could really design some innovative gadget plays.
The Jets receiving corps really looks like a bunch of question marks at this point though, no telling what the week-to-week outcome will be with these guys.
Jermaine Kearse: 65 catches, 810 yards, 5 touchdowns (2017)
Robby Anderson: 63 catches, 941 yards, 7 touchdowns (2017)
Quincy Enunwa: 58 catches, 857 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)
Terrelle Pryor: 77 catches, 1007 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)

04/01/18, 11:04 AM CDT by Wheeler


Carlos Henderson

Denver Broncos

Sleeper Watch

Broncos coach Vance Joseph said the team is "counting on" Carlos Henderson making an impact in 2018.

If you are paying attention to Staggs projections there is plenty of opportunity for Henderson to step into a solid number of targets in the slot. Henderson was hindered by injury and awful QB play last year. Being drafted in the 18th round or later in best-ball leagues, Henderson is the late round flyer that should be on your radar.

04/01/18, 11:00 AM CDT by Wheeler


Ben Watson

Baltimore Ravens

Watson Returns To Big Easy

Saints signed TE Ben Watson, formerly of the Ravens, to a one-year contract.

Watson had 74 catches on 110 targets for 825 yards and 6 TD’s when he was with the Saints in 2015. After missing 2016 he had a pretty good year with Baltimore last year despite an anemic offense, with 61 catches on 79 targets for 522 yards and 4 TD’s. He’s not a bad late round flyer TE. He’s basically free right now, but I expect by the time the season starts he’ll be being drafted within the top 20 at the position.

04/01/18, 10:54 AM CDT by Wheeler


Jeff Janis

Green Bay Packers

Janis Truthers Challenged

Browns officially signed former Packers’ WR Jeff Janis.
The combine superstar never amounted to anything in Green Bay, I highly doubt Cleveland is the place for him to finally break-out.

04/01/18, 10:50 AM CDT by Wheeler


Thomas Rawls

Seattle Seahawks

Jets Sign Rawls

Rawls had five RB1 games in 2015, one in 2016, and has been a disappointment since. He’s not worth your time in fantasy, but he could cause enough disruption in the Jets backfield to cut any upside we might have hoped for from Isaiah Crowell.

04/01/18, 10:48 AM CDT by Wheeler


Allen Robinson

Jacksonville Jaguars

Coo coo ca choo Mr. Robinson

Bears signed WR Allen Robinson, formerly of the Jaguars, to a three-year, $42 million contract.

This is a great move for Robinson and Chicago. Nagy’s offense and the young QB, Trubiski, should benefit Robinson at least as much as Bortles did, and Chicago gets the top WR in free agency.
Everyone on the team will be in a new scheme so there will be an adjustment, but as they start to gel we should see a big second half. Robinson’s recovery from a torn ACL doesn’t scare me away from drafting him in the late third/early fourth, his current MFL10 ADP is 43 overall while his Draft app ADP is 59.9. I expect Robinson to be somewhere in the range of 75 receptions, for 1100 yards and 8 TD’s.

03/24/18, 08:25 PM CDT by Wheeler


Sammy Watkins

Los Angeles Rams

KC Building Strong Air Attack

Chiefs signed Sammy Watkins, formerly of the Rams, to a three-year, $48 million contract.

I’m a big Sammy truther so getting him in the 5th or 6th round is a pure power move. His current Draft app ADP of 87.1 is an absolute steal, his MFL10 ADP of 69.5 is still a great value in my opinion. There are quite a few options for high targets in KC so I don’t expect him to see the 128 targets he saw his rookie year, but he should definitely see more than the 70 he saw last year. He’ll have an entire offseason to work with the near-rookie QB, and at age 25 he should have enough burst left to have a 70 catch, 1050 yd, 8TD line. For his career he has 16 receptions on 30 targets for 12 TD’s in the Red Zone, and 9 receptions on 13 targets, for 8 TD’s inside the opponents 10. He should be the exact WR the Chiefs need to get over the hump. As a team the Chiefs were 34/75 for 13 TD’s in the Red-Zone last year and 12/24 for 10 TD inside the 10.

03/24/18, 08:19 PM CDT by Wheeler


Kirk Cousins

Washington Redskins

Vikings Like That

Kirk Cousins plans to sign a three-year, fully-guaranteed contract from the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday. The deal is believed to be for around $86 million, and reports are it will be fully-guaranteed, a landmark for an NFL free agent.

Should be a lateral move for Kirk as far as fantasy, better WR’s, but fewer passes thrown in this offense. A healthy Dalvin Cook should be able to run out the clock if they are up in the second half of games and take the ball out of Cousins hands near the end zone. It should also help the overall efficiency of the offense so all in all it increases his floor, but cuts any garbage-time production we’ve seen with Washington. Kyle Rudolph becomes a big benefactor here, Cousins loves his TE, especially near the end-zone.

03/24/18, 08:16 PM CDT by Wheeler


Case Keenum

Minnesota Vikings

Denver Makes Case

Broncos signed QB Case Keenum, formerly of the Vikings, to a two-year, $36 million contract.

Well, I was hoping for more than a bridge QB for my favorite WR (D. Thomas), but this is a definite upgrade from the three stooges Denver put behind center last year.

03/24/18, 08:13 PM CDT by Wheeler


LeGarrette Blount

Philadelphia Eagles

Detroit Sparks Up Blount

The Lions signed free agent RB LeGarrette Blount to a 1-year deal worth $4.5M. He’s back with Matt Patricia, as the New England ties are strong.

The Lions have needed a true goal-line/power-back for years. I expect Blount to get between 150-200 touches and all the short-yardage carries. Detroit’s offense doesn’t really fit what Blount brings to the table, but I expect Patricia will have some influence over how the offense will operate from here-on-out.

03/24/18, 08:10 PM CDT by Wheeler


Cleveland Browns

Money Ball: The Sequel

Hate to start out the offseason with the Cleveland Browns, but they are makin’ moves!
Browns acquired: Tyrod Taylor, Jarvis Landry, Damarious Randall
Browns gave up: 2018 3rd-round pick (No. 65), 2018 4th-round pick, 2019 7th-round pick, DeShone Kizer

Building with experienced quality performers that have something to prove, by selling inconsequential draft picks is exactly what Sashi Brown was building up for. It’s a shame he won’t be around to reap the rewards, but these are quality moves for a win-now mentality.

03/09/18, 09:37 PM CST by Wheeler


Tyrod Taylor

Buffalo Bills

Hue Looks To TyGoat

Browns left tackle Joe Thomas, who's pondering his future, is a fan of Tyrod Taylor and has said so on the ThomaHawk Show podcast.

Tyrod is just one season removed (2016) from being the QB11 in average fantasy ppg, including seven 20+ point weeks and six 15+ point weeks. Given the current talent on the O-line and skill position weapons he could improve on those numbers. He has the potential to be this year’s Alex Smith, definitely heading my late-round (12+) QB picks now.

03/09/18, 09:32 PM CST by Wheeler


Deshone Kizer

Cleveland Browns

Packers Get In On The Fun

The Packers have traded for QB DeShone Kizer from the Browns to Green Bay.

This is the best possible scenario for Kizer, who was thrown into the fire last season. Getting the chance to develop and learn behind the best in the business is the best chance he has for longevity.

03/09/18, 09:30 PM CST by Wheeler


Torrey Smith

Philadelphia Eagles

On The Move Again

The Eagles trade WR Torrey Smith to the Panthers for CB Daryl Worley. Torrey Smith could fill the old Ted Ginn role which makes this fairly interesting. Stagg Party says it’s more of a boost for Cam than Torrey himself.

This is an absolute perfect fit, someone who isn’t going to demand the ball, but can take the top off a defense while McCaffrey, Olsen, and Cam work underneath. Torrey is looking like a great late-round flyer.

03/09/18, 09:28 PM CST by Wheeler


DeMarco Murray

Tennessee Titans

Henry Hype Train Has Clear Track

DeMarco Murray was released by the Titans.
No surprise here, expect Derick Henry to be a lead back with 250+ touches, but they will bring in someone that will play the third-down, pass-catching role out of the backfield. I wouldn’t be surprised if they sign someone like Jerick McKinnon or Rex Burkhead, or even Darren Sproles or Charles Sims. There are also plenty of options in the NFL draft, Henry won’t be a true “Bell Cow.”

03/09/18, 09:17 PM CST by Wheeler


Marquise Goodwin

San Francisco 49ers

The Name Says It All

Marquise Goodwin and the 49ers have agreed to a 3yr extension worth $20.3M & 10M guaranteed.

Shanahan has found his big-play threat at a reasonable price. Goodwin caught 56 balls for 962 yards last season, but only had two TD’s. None of his six longest plays (33+ yards) were from Garoppollo so it leads me to believe they will still be looking for a top of the line WR, even with Garcon coming back from injury.

03/09/18, 09:15 PM CST by Wheeler


2016 QB ADP Expectations

2016 QB ADP Expectations

Posted by Stagg Party on 08/24/16

by   The Archer


More Articals


When looking at players it is important to consider the range of outcomes for any given player. Each player has his own ceiling typically derived from career norms and current situation and it is commonly referred to as upside, what could happen if everything goes right. A player also has a mean outcome, which is his average, or what is most likely to happen. Finally, that same player has a floor, or what his lowest output could be on a weekly basis. These ranges all come into play on a seasonal basis as well as a weekly basis. The best fantasy players receive a high rating in each of these ranges, and it is why they are the best. Some players lower down the spectrum could have high upsides and low floors, making their range of outcomes wide and being one of those boom or bust candidates. Younger players also have yet to truly establish a baseline for performance, so their range of outcomes is a little murkier than guys who have been in the league for four or five seasons.


QBs Being Drafted at Ceiling


Ben Roethlisberger – Fantasypros ADP – QB 5 – Best Season – 300.8 – Seasons above 300.1 points – 1


Ben Roethlisberger is being absolutely drafted at his ceiling, selecting him as the fifth quarterback off the board gives you no room for disappointment and there are a number of reasons he could disappoint. First, over the last two seasons, he has averaged greater than five fantasy points more a game when Martavis Bryant played as opposed to games he missed. Roethlisberger also has mammoth home and road splits over the last three seasons, averaging 7 fantasy points more a game while at home. Ben still does have Antonio at his disposal, but outside of him the offense is looking like it has a lot more question marks then we expected, especially early in the season when Bell, Ladarius Green, and the aforementioned Bryant could all be missing from the lineup. Ben is also a guy who plays with reckless abandon that can lead to injuries, missing an average of 1.67 games a season over the course of his career. Add on that Big Ben’s 17.7 fantasy points a game last season falls more in line with QB10, it is hard to believe that Ben will have a positive ROI at seasons end.


Eli Manning - Fantasypros ADP – QB 10 – Best Season – 287.5 – Seasons above 272.4 points – 2


Eli Manning has just two seasons coming above 272 points, last season and 2011. He did nearly topple that number in 2014 as well, but is heavily reliant on Odell Beckham Jr. as he has averaged 23 fantasy points in 27 games with him in the lineup over the last three seasons and just under 16 fantasy points in 21 tilts without the explosive receiver. When you draft Manning however, you know that you will get 16 games out of him, but his 17.4 fantasy points per game over the last two seasons falls more in like with a QB12 than QB10. With offensive line issues remaining, and talent outside of Odell still unproven, Manning needs a lot of things to break his way to finish higher than QB10 at the end of next season.


Tony Romo - Fantasypros ADP – QB 12 – Best Season – 295.6 – Seasons above 267.5 points – 4


Tony Romo is currently being drafted as the 12th quarterback across seven different league hosting sites, and it seems like he is being overvalued. In 2014, Romo finisged as the 11th quarterback in fantasy and his 17.8 fantasy points a game fell in line with that. Tony’s best fantasy season came in 2007, when his 295 points were good for second best in the league, but due to the escalation of the leagues passing that would have ranked just seventh in the league. The Cowboys are also committed to running the ball after just spending the fourth overall pick on a running back. In 2014, Romo ranked 23rd in passing attempts and the Cowboys as a whole ranked second to last in attempts. With limited pass attempts, Romo will be a touchdown dependent quarterback for the ages.


Teddy Bridgewater - Fantasypros ADP – QB 21 – Best Season – 198.4 – Seasons above 187.5 points – 1


Teddy Bridgewater has loyal pundits at his back that talk up his ability whenever they get a chance and yet he hasn’t put it together for fantasy football success. Bridgewater has thrown just 28 touchdown passes across two seasons against 21 interceptions. Teddy has provided some rushing numbers to boost his fantasy prowess but not nearly enough to supplant that weak passing display through two seasons. Many say that AP has been holding Teddy and the offense back, but he averaged just 1 more fantasy point a game without him in the lineup over the last two seasons. The hope for Bridgewater is that their young offensive weaponry improves as they head further into their careers. In terms of fantasy points per game, Bridgewater’13 fantasy points a game wouldn’t even rank in the top-25 for quarterbacks over the last three seasons. Bridgewater is a guy I avoid at his price and I suggest you do the same.


QB ADP Expectations

Undervalued QBs


Drew Brees - Fantasypros ADP – QB 6 – Best Season – 387.6 – Seasons above 297.4 points – 6


Drew Brees is finally coming at a value in fantasy drafts after years of being a first and second round pick because of his sheer dominance. Now going in the fifth round Brees represents a value, especially when Big Ben comes off the board before him. Brees has arguably upgraded his supporting cast this offseason with Coby Fleener and Michael Thomas added in free agency and the draft respectively. Brees has a top offensive line, a plethora of weapons, and a playcaller who loves to air it out. Brees is also likely to return value at his ADP and the 18.8 fantasy point per game threshold of QB6 has been surpassed by Brees and incredible seven times.


Philip Rivers - Fantasypros ADP – QB 11 – Best Season – 288.3 – Seasons above 270.3 points – 4


Philip Rivers is a trendy pick to be a top ten quarterback again next season with the return of Ken Whisenhunt to run the offense. Rivers looks primed to have a bit of a resurgence again under Wiz who he had his career year under the former Tennessee head coach. Philip was on a tear to open last season, checking in as the number two quarterback over the first half of last season. Rivers should also have a deeper offensive skill group this season with Melvin Gordon flashing in preseason, Danny Woodhead his usual sturdy self, Keenan Allen returning from his ruptured kidney, Travis Benjamin coming over in free agency, Antonio Gates hopefully around for a whole season chasing the tight end touchdown record, and the young receivers getting another year under their belt. Wiz was able to skyrocket Rivers efficiency by focusing on the run game, expect that to happen again this season with Rivers able to get the ball out to his playmakers if their offensive line can remain somewhat healthy.


Matthew Stafford - Fantasypros ADP – QB 18 – Best Season – 339.3 – Seasons above 223.7 points – 5


Matthew Stafford was always a guy with unrealized potential after throwing for over 5,000 yards and 41 touchdowns in 2011. Since then he has been unable to reach those lofty heights despite putting up solid fantasy totals nearly every season. In 2012, Stafford finished as the 11th QB, in 2013 he was the seventh QB, 2014 saw him finish as the 15th quarterback, and last season saw him finish as QB8. Everyone must be attributing Stafford’s success solely to Calvin Johnson who has since retired and Stafford has been drafted as QB 18. Over the last three seasons, Johnson missed three games and Stafford averaged nearly 19 fantasy points a game, below his 22 points a game. That number shrinks by just a one point difference over the last two seasons, lets remember the guys that were there for Stafford to throw to outside of Megatron before Tate was added. With Marvin Jones, Golden Tate, Eric Ebron and a slew of capable receiving backs, Stafford arguably has one of the best supporting casts of his career. Stafford has five seasons blowing away the baseline set by his ADP, as well as five seasons above the 16 fantasy point per game threshold.


Matt Ryan - Fantasypros ADP – QB 20 – Best Season – 304.9 – Seasons above 202.1 points – 6


Ryan is coming off a down season that has destroyed his ADP to the point where he has become a value. In a down season, Ryan threw for 4,591 yards but turned it over more than ever before in his career and had the fewest touchdowns since his rookie season. Even though he underwhelmed his high ADP last season, he looks primed to blow it out of the water in 2016. Currently being drafted as the 20th quarterback off the board, Ryan’s expected fantasy points over the last three years are just 202.1, a number that he has surpassed in each of the last six seasons. Ryan should see an increase in his touchdown passes as the team is geared toward throwing the rock, and is arguably even better than last season as they added Mohamed Sanu and Austin Hooper during the offseason. With a top flight offensive line and one of the top wide receivers in football, expect Matt Ryan to return a positive to your teams in drafts this season. 



Read the Running Backs



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by Stagg Party


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