Week 20
January 20, 2018
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Tom Brady

New England Patriots

Tom Still Terrific?


Tom Brady was first listed on the team's injury report with an Achilles injury heading in to Week 11.
Weeks 1-10: 21.2 fantasy points per game, 110.9 passer rating
Weeks 11-17: 14.2 fantasy points per game, 87.3 passer rating

Fantasy Goo: This should line up for a good week for Brady, Tennessee is 8th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, but just below average against QB’s. The Patriots are 13 point favorites on Saturday Night, if Brady doesn’t do it at home in prime-time then something is wrong.


01/09/18, 07:30 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alvin Kamara

New Orleans Saints

Primary Role Shifting


Saints have run 5 times at/inside opponent's 5-yard line over last 4 weeks (including playoffs):
Alvin Kamara 3 carries, Zach Line 1, Mark Ingram 1. Kamara was in on all 3 Saints run plays at/inside 5 vs. Panthers last week, including Line's 1-yard TD run.

Fantasy Goo: If you’re trying to decide between Kamara and Ingram for the playoff run, Kamara looks to be the much better play.


01/09/18, 07:20 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jay Ajayi

Philadelphia Eagles

It's A Trap


Jay Ajayi (knee) is practicing in full for the Divisional Round.

Fantasy Goo: Atlanta is 5th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s this year and they are more susceptible to pass-catching backs. Todd Gurley rushed 14 times for 101 yards in the Rams' Wild Card loss to the Falcons, adding four receptions for 10 additional yards. Ajayi might have been drafted before Gurley this year, but that was clearly a mistake. Ajayi has talent, but he’s far from a good option this week.


01/09/18, 07:16 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Chris Hogan

New England Patriots

Back in Action


Chris Hogan (shoulder) is expected to return for Saturday's Divisional Round game against the Titans.

Fantasy Goo: He’s going to take a couple of weeks to get in tune with the offense, I’m looking to save him until the Super Bowl if you’re in one of those one and done fantasy playoff tournaments.


01/09/18, 07:14 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Drew Brees

New Orleans Saints

Strength vs Strength


Saints RBs led NFL during regular season in receptions (9.0) and receiving yards (77.8) per game.
Vikings held opposing RBs to fewest yards per target (4.2) and 3rd-fewest yards per game (30.6).

Fantasy Goo: The Vikings have been absolutely sick in all aspects on defense this year. If the Saints are going to pull this one out it sounds like it’s going to have to be a Brees week, I’m not so sure he’s going to be the guy you want to start on the road this week.


01/09/18, 07:12 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


LeSean McCoy

Buffalo Bills

Not The Real McCoy


LeSean McCoy said if he plays Sunday, "I want to be able to cut well enough to where I don't have a lot of pain cutting. I just want to be close, or the best as far as 100 percent as I can get. The type of game like this, you got to lay it all on the line.”

Fantasy Goo: McCoy is a poor play against the Jags this week. The Jags strength on defense is against the pass (#1 in FP allowed), but they are still strong against the rush (11th). I’m not taking any Bills on fantasy playoff squads or in DFS this week.


01/04/18, 09:29 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Derrick Henry

Tennessee Titans

Arrow Pointing Down


DeMarco Murray (knee) didn't practice again Thursday. Derrick Henry show ready to go.

Fantasy Goo: The way to attack KC is through the air, they rank 9th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s. They will most likely be in negative game script. KC hasn’t allowed any team to score over 20 points in Arrowhead all year.


01/04/18, 09:27 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Julio Jones

Atlanta Falcons

No Fly Zone


Julio Jones finished 11th in NFL in red-zone targets but caught only 5 of 19. He finished 4th in targets inside 10 but only caught 4 of 11.

Fantasy Goo: The Rams have a strong pass defense, especially against outside receivers, but are second worst in fantasy points allowed to RB’s. Freeman and Coleman are the only Falcons I am considering this week.


01/04/18, 09:25 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Kenny Golladay

Detroit Lions

Under the Radar


In the first game with TJ Jones (shoulder) on IR last week, Kenny Golladay played 95% of snaps and led DET WRs with 8 targets.

Fantasy Goo: Marvin Jones has a history of shredding the Packers defense and is a solid play at $6500 on DK, but Golladay is half the price ($3300) and will probably see a similar number of targets. If Detroit had something to play for I’d be stacking the heck out of this game, but I still think it’s smart to have one of these guys in the line-up this week.


12/31/17, 09:46 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Patrick Mahomes

Kansas City Chiefs

Rookie Debut


Patrick Mahomes was 2nd in PFF’s QB Rating when kept clean in preseason. He rushed for 744 yards, 22 TDs in his last two years at Texas Tech. Denver has allowed multiple passing TDs to six-straight QBs not named Petty or Brissett.

Fantasy Goo: The rookie was supposed to take over for Alex Smith much earlier this season, but Smith and the Chief’s came out firing on all cylinders and kept the rookie on the bench. Mahomes will get his chance this week as Smith gets a week off before the playoffs. Denver may be packing it in, but they still have one of the best defenses and I expect they will play more inspired this week against a division rival.


12/31/17, 09:32 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Wayne Gallman

New York Giants

Last Man Standing


Giants will be without Shepard (neck), Engram (ribs), and King (concussion) vs. WAS. Wayne Gallman has 9, 7, 8 target counts in last three weeks.

Fantasy Goo: Washington ranks 24th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s and Gallman is $4200 on DK. Feels like a great way to save and pay up at other positions.


12/31/17, 09:21 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alex Collins

Baltimore Ravens

Burfict Situation


Bengals LB Vontaze Burfict ruled out for game Sunday at Baltimore because of shoulder injury.

Fantasy Goo: Collins becomes a solid RB1 this week. Cincinnati’s run defense is a sieve with Burfict out.


12/31/17, 09:19 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Akeem Hunt

Houston Texans

Akeem No Dream


Charcandrick West is out Sunday vs Denver with an illness. Akeem Hunt and Kareem Hunt only RBs on active roster for KC. It would be a surprise to see Kareem play much. That means a ton of Akeem Hunt and likely some De'Anthony Thomas on passing downs.

Fantasy Goo: Akeem is min price ($3000) on DK so the definition of a free-square, but there’s a reason he’s bounced around the NFL and never earned a starting role. Denver is 5th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, I’m not rostering Akeem when there are so many other options this week.


12/31/17, 09:17 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


DeAndre Hopkins

Houston Texans

Milestone Not Worth The Risk


Bill O'Brien on DeAndre Hopkins' status: 'Probably won't know up until game time'. Typically, we might classify this as coach-speak, but Hopkins has never missed a game, and is four catches away from 100 for the season. He's probably pushing hard to play.

Fantasy Goo: This is an awesome match-up for the Houston WR’s going against a very weak Indy pass defense, but there is really no reason for Hopkins to play, especially with the calf injury. At $8400 on DK he’s just way too pricey given this news. A sneaky start might be Will Fuller at $4300, he has 5 targets in each of the past three games and is coming off some difficult match-ups. Earlier in the season he was a superstar with Watson throwing the ball, but he has always had the big play in his arsenal no matter who the QB is.


12/29/17, 10:03 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Dion Lewis

New England Patriots

Vultures Are Always Flying


James White (ankle) remained limited at Thursday's practice. White was absent for last week's win over Buffalo but should be out there against the Jets in Week 17. He ranks eighth among running backs with 56 catches this year.

Fantasy Goo: Lewis dominated last week with White and Burkhead out, even though Gillislee vultured a TD. I would imagine that White playing will take away the five receptions Lewis had last week and the Jets actually have a better rush defense than the Pats week 16 opponent (Buf). The Pats will be looking to lock-up home field advantage and won’t be resting their starters, but they will probably be looking to get everyone some work as they prep for the playoffs. Gillislee appears to be nursing a hammy and is not expected to play, but let’s not forget how White performed last year in the Super Bowl.


12/29/17, 09:47 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

Pittsburgh Steelers

Stars Sitting


The Steelers Marcus Gilbert tells reporter Tim Benz that the Steelers won't play Ben Roethlisberger or Le'Veon Bell in finale vs. Cleveland. Landry Jones will be under center for Pittsburgh and Fitzgerald Toussaint and Stevan Ridley will form a thoroughly underwhelming RB committee against the Browns.

Fantasy Goo: Underwhelming is an understatement for these two backs, a highly respected fantasy website hasn’t even updated the news on these two since the pre-season and doesn’t even recognize them as being on the team. The one player of note in this is Martavis Bryant, The Alien averages over 17 ppr points per game with Landry at the helm as opposed to 8.4 ppg with other QB’s. He also has 5 TD’s in 5 home games with Landry. Granted most of this production comes from 2015 when they worked together often in the preseason, but Bryant could be a very sneaky GPP play this week.


12/29/17, 09:23 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Jacksonville Jaguars

Play To Win The Game


Despite already being locked into the AFC's No. 3 seed, Jaguars coach Doug Marrone has no plans to rest starters in Sunday's game against the Titans. "Make no mistake about it, just so there is not a lot of talk during the week: When the players come in (Wednesday), we are talking about how we are going to play to win and do everything we possibly can to win this game, period," Marrone said. "I am not even thinking about what happens beyond that, and that is the way we are going to go about our business this week."

Fantasy Goo: I think it’s crazy of him to do, but I’m sure he has Tom Coughlin in his ear feeding him that old-school philosophy. Looks like Bortles, Fournette, Westbrook and Cole will be safe plays against a Titan’s team hoping to hold on to the sixth seed in the AFC.


12/26/17, 10:00 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

Los Angeles Rams

Resting Starters


McVay hints that there will be Rams starters “who won’t play at all” on Sunday. The Rams are already locked into either the No. 3 or 4 seed in the NFC and will host a Wild Card round playoff game.

Fantasy Goo: Gurley, Goff, Woods, all sitting this week? That’s going to destroy so many hopes and dreams for teams that rode Gurley all year.


12/26/17, 09:58 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


DeMarco Murray

Tennessee Titans

Grind It Out


Mike Mularkey said he's not ruling DeMarco Murray out just yet. He's day-to-day. The Titans are holding out hope to have him in limited role.

Fantasy Goo: They are really grinding him into the dirt if they play him this week. I didn’t see the injury, but it sounded pretty ugly from sources in the know. Keep away from him in whatever format you are playing this week, I’m giving Derick Henry a solid upgrade as the Titans are trying to hold on to the final playoff spot in the AFC.


12/26/17, 05:17 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Philadelphia Eagles

All Locked Up


Pederson on playing Foles vs. Cowboys: “I’ve got to get him as many reps as he can and then be smart about it. Obviously, we have a lot of football left. Our season is really just beginning, quite honestly. We’ll be smart.”

Fantasy Goo: This is why you don’t play a championship game in week 17. I’m staying away from the Eagles regular starters, pretty much across the board, as they have a first round bye all locked up. Guys like Blount, Clement, and Nelson Agholor might have some DFS appeal, but we have to get closer to Sunday to see what they plan on doing.


12/26/17, 05:15 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

2016 QB ADP Expectations

2016 QB ADP Expectations

Posted by Stagg Party on 08/24/16

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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When looking at players it is important to consider the range of outcomes for any given player. Each player has his own ceiling typically derived from career norms and current situation and it is commonly referred to as upside, what could happen if everything goes right. A player also has a mean outcome, which is his average, or what is most likely to happen. Finally, that same player has a floor, or what his lowest output could be on a weekly basis. These ranges all come into play on a seasonal basis as well as a weekly basis. The best fantasy players receive a high rating in each of these ranges, and it is why they are the best. Some players lower down the spectrum could have high upsides and low floors, making their range of outcomes wide and being one of those boom or bust candidates. Younger players also have yet to truly establish a baseline for performance, so their range of outcomes is a little murkier than guys who have been in the league for four or five seasons.

 

QBs Being Drafted at Ceiling

 

Ben Roethlisberger – Fantasypros ADP – QB 5 – Best Season – 300.8 – Seasons above 300.1 points – 1

 

Ben Roethlisberger is being absolutely drafted at his ceiling, selecting him as the fifth quarterback off the board gives you no room for disappointment and there are a number of reasons he could disappoint. First, over the last two seasons, he has averaged greater than five fantasy points more a game when Martavis Bryant played as opposed to games he missed. Roethlisberger also has mammoth home and road splits over the last three seasons, averaging 7 fantasy points more a game while at home. Ben still does have Antonio at his disposal, but outside of him the offense is looking like it has a lot more question marks then we expected, especially early in the season when Bell, Ladarius Green, and the aforementioned Bryant could all be missing from the lineup. Ben is also a guy who plays with reckless abandon that can lead to injuries, missing an average of 1.67 games a season over the course of his career. Add on that Big Ben’s 17.7 fantasy points a game last season falls more in line with QB10, it is hard to believe that Ben will have a positive ROI at seasons end.

 

Eli Manning - Fantasypros ADP – QB 10 – Best Season – 287.5 – Seasons above 272.4 points – 2

 

Eli Manning has just two seasons coming above 272 points, last season and 2011. He did nearly topple that number in 2014 as well, but is heavily reliant on Odell Beckham Jr. as he has averaged 23 fantasy points in 27 games with him in the lineup over the last three seasons and just under 16 fantasy points in 21 tilts without the explosive receiver. When you draft Manning however, you know that you will get 16 games out of him, but his 17.4 fantasy points per game over the last two seasons falls more in like with a QB12 than QB10. With offensive line issues remaining, and talent outside of Odell still unproven, Manning needs a lot of things to break his way to finish higher than QB10 at the end of next season.

 

Tony Romo - Fantasypros ADP – QB 12 – Best Season – 295.6 – Seasons above 267.5 points – 4

 

Tony Romo is currently being drafted as the 12th quarterback across seven different league hosting sites, and it seems like he is being overvalued. In 2014, Romo finisged as the 11th quarterback in fantasy and his 17.8 fantasy points a game fell in line with that. Tony’s best fantasy season came in 2007, when his 295 points were good for second best in the league, but due to the escalation of the leagues passing that would have ranked just seventh in the league. The Cowboys are also committed to running the ball after just spending the fourth overall pick on a running back. In 2014, Romo ranked 23rd in passing attempts and the Cowboys as a whole ranked second to last in attempts. With limited pass attempts, Romo will be a touchdown dependent quarterback for the ages.

 

Teddy Bridgewater - Fantasypros ADP – QB 21 – Best Season – 198.4 – Seasons above 187.5 points – 1

 

Teddy Bridgewater has loyal pundits at his back that talk up his ability whenever they get a chance and yet he hasn’t put it together for fantasy football success. Bridgewater has thrown just 28 touchdown passes across two seasons against 21 interceptions. Teddy has provided some rushing numbers to boost his fantasy prowess but not nearly enough to supplant that weak passing display through two seasons. Many say that AP has been holding Teddy and the offense back, but he averaged just 1 more fantasy point a game without him in the lineup over the last two seasons. The hope for Bridgewater is that their young offensive weaponry improves as they head further into their careers. In terms of fantasy points per game, Bridgewater’13 fantasy points a game wouldn’t even rank in the top-25 for quarterbacks over the last three seasons. Bridgewater is a guy I avoid at his price and I suggest you do the same.

 

QB ADP Expectations


Undervalued QBs

 

Drew Brees - Fantasypros ADP – QB 6 – Best Season – 387.6 – Seasons above 297.4 points – 6

 

Drew Brees is finally coming at a value in fantasy drafts after years of being a first and second round pick because of his sheer dominance. Now going in the fifth round Brees represents a value, especially when Big Ben comes off the board before him. Brees has arguably upgraded his supporting cast this offseason with Coby Fleener and Michael Thomas added in free agency and the draft respectively. Brees has a top offensive line, a plethora of weapons, and a playcaller who loves to air it out. Brees is also likely to return value at his ADP and the 18.8 fantasy point per game threshold of QB6 has been surpassed by Brees and incredible seven times.

 

Philip Rivers - Fantasypros ADP – QB 11 – Best Season – 288.3 – Seasons above 270.3 points – 4

 

Philip Rivers is a trendy pick to be a top ten quarterback again next season with the return of Ken Whisenhunt to run the offense. Rivers looks primed to have a bit of a resurgence again under Wiz who he had his career year under the former Tennessee head coach. Philip was on a tear to open last season, checking in as the number two quarterback over the first half of last season. Rivers should also have a deeper offensive skill group this season with Melvin Gordon flashing in preseason, Danny Woodhead his usual sturdy self, Keenan Allen returning from his ruptured kidney, Travis Benjamin coming over in free agency, Antonio Gates hopefully around for a whole season chasing the tight end touchdown record, and the young receivers getting another year under their belt. Wiz was able to skyrocket Rivers efficiency by focusing on the run game, expect that to happen again this season with Rivers able to get the ball out to his playmakers if their offensive line can remain somewhat healthy.

 

Matthew Stafford - Fantasypros ADP – QB 18 – Best Season – 339.3 – Seasons above 223.7 points – 5

 

Matthew Stafford was always a guy with unrealized potential after throwing for over 5,000 yards and 41 touchdowns in 2011. Since then he has been unable to reach those lofty heights despite putting up solid fantasy totals nearly every season. In 2012, Stafford finished as the 11th QB, in 2013 he was the seventh QB, 2014 saw him finish as the 15th quarterback, and last season saw him finish as QB8. Everyone must be attributing Stafford’s success solely to Calvin Johnson who has since retired and Stafford has been drafted as QB 18. Over the last three seasons, Johnson missed three games and Stafford averaged nearly 19 fantasy points a game, below his 22 points a game. That number shrinks by just a one point difference over the last two seasons, lets remember the guys that were there for Stafford to throw to outside of Megatron before Tate was added. With Marvin Jones, Golden Tate, Eric Ebron and a slew of capable receiving backs, Stafford arguably has one of the best supporting casts of his career. Stafford has five seasons blowing away the baseline set by his ADP, as well as five seasons above the 16 fantasy point per game threshold.

 

Matt Ryan - Fantasypros ADP – QB 20 – Best Season – 304.9 – Seasons above 202.1 points – 6

 

Ryan is coming off a down season that has destroyed his ADP to the point where he has become a value. In a down season, Ryan threw for 4,591 yards but turned it over more than ever before in his career and had the fewest touchdowns since his rookie season. Even though he underwhelmed his high ADP last season, he looks primed to blow it out of the water in 2016. Currently being drafted as the 20th quarterback off the board, Ryan’s expected fantasy points over the last three years are just 202.1, a number that he has surpassed in each of the last six seasons. Ryan should see an increase in his touchdown passes as the team is geared toward throwing the rock, and is arguably even better than last season as they added Mohamed Sanu and Austin Hooper during the offseason. With a top flight offensive line and one of the top wide receivers in football, expect Matt Ryan to return a positive to your teams in drafts this season. 

 

 

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by Stagg Party


  

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