Week 11
November 19, 2017
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Leonard Fournette

Jacksonville Jaguars

Rookie Wall?


Fournette came off of essentially 20 days of resting and rehabbing the injured ankle suffered in the fourth quarter of Jacksonville’s October 15th loss to the Rams, when he suited up last week against the L.A. Chargers. Last week, he carried 17 times for 33 yards. According to Florida Football Insiders, Leonard Fournette's ankle is "still not right," and he could be limited if he plays this week against the Browns.

I’ve heard a few people recognize that Cleveland’s run defense has been underrated this year. They started out pretty strong, but they have been fading lately, especially when it comes to the pass-catching backs over the past five games. Yeldon or Ivory could be that sneaky flex you’re looking for.


11/18/17, 11:12 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.floridafootballinsiders.com

Jacksonville Jaguars

Ground and Pound


According to Forecast.io, it's expected to be 39° F and with a 18% chance of snow and 20 MPH wind in Cleveland at 1:00 PM ET.

This is something to watch Sunday morning, especially if you were high on the Jacksonville passing game facing Cleveland this weekend. The snow doesn’t matter, but the wind could eliminate any deep balls. If you’re looking for a Dede or K. Cole explosion, like I have been, I think we’re going to have to wait at least one more week. Marquis Lee should be fine, he’ll still get his targets. The running game should benefit, but Fournette is questionable with an ankle.


11/18/17, 11:02 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotowire.com


Jay Ajayi

Philadelphia Eagles

Ajayi Slated for More Work in Week 11


Coaches have come out and said there is a concentrated effort to increase Ajayi's workload.

Fantasy Goo: Certainly Corey Clement impressed in their last game, Week 9 against Denver. However, he won't sustain the pace of 3TDs on just 13 touches. I do like both players in GPP, I would certainly save Clement for the larger tournaments where you take on more risk in order to differentiate yourself from the field. Still, Ajayi has had a bye week and a game to get familiar with his new digs. Each game from now on, should highlight his comfort and growth in the system.


11/18/17, 03:02 PM CST by PyromaniacMo

Source: www.philly.com


Devonta Freeman

Atlanta Falcons

Coleman to Increase Workload Sans Freeman


Devonta Freeman is in concussion protocol. That leaves Tevin 'Betchya Bottom Dollar" Coleman to pick up extra duties.

Fantasy Goo: Freeman was taken out very early on in last week's game. Because of this, Coleman seized the reins with command. He finished as Draft Kings 10th best RB of the week. Their Week 11 matchup with the Seahawks could easily turn into a high schoring affair as Seattle is without starters Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor, and Jarran Reed. What Seattle puts on the field will not resemble what we are accustomed to. Coleman should seize thee opportunity.


11/18/17, 02:33 PM CST by PyromaniacMo

Source: www.fftoday.com


Tevin Coleman

Atlanta Falcons

Coleman to Increase Workload Sans Freeman


Devonta Freeman is in concussion protocol. That leaves Tevin 'Betchya Bottom Dollar" Coleman to pick up extra duties.

Fantasy Goo: Freeman was taken out very early on in last week's game. Because of this, Coleman seized the reins with command. He finished as Draft Kings 10th best RB of the week. Their Week 11 matchup with the Seahawks could easily turn into a high schoring affair as Seattle is without starters Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor, and Jarran Reed. What Seattle puts on the field will not resemble what we are accustomed to. Coleman should seize thee opportunity.


11/18/17, 02:33 PM CST by PyromaniacMo

Source: www.fftoday.com

Buffalo Bills

Bills Getting Gashed


In the last 3 weeks, the Buffalo Bills have given up 8 TDS. There is not a team in the league that has given up more than 8 rushing TDS ALL SEASON!

Fantasy Goo: There is trepidation about Gordon this week. Ekeler made a bit of a name for himself last week as Gordon owners experienced fits or rage and madness last week. I still like Gordon even in cash this week. Still whichever back you prefer, they should have a field day.


11/18/17, 12:55 PM CST by PyromaniacMo

Source: www.fftoday.com


Jamaal Williams

Green Bay Packers

Next Man Up


As expected, Ty Montgomery officially ruled OUT for Sunday against the Ravens. Jamaal Williams should start at running back.

Williams is not Montgomery or Jones, I would not recommend starting him if you can prevent it. It will probably take a positive game script for him to be heavily use, don’t be surprised if we see Cobb being used in the backfield, especially in third-and-long situations.


11/17/17, 09:32 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alshon Jeffery

Philadelphia Eagles

Open Door for Agholor


Eagles coach Doug Pederson says that Alshon Jeffery's ankle injury has been lingering for a while, but he is "optimistic" he'll play against the Cowboys Sunday night. He will be listed as questionable.

I’m looking at Nelson Agholor having a nice opportunity to put up some points with Dallas being the 24th ranked defense against opposing WR’s. Ertz coming off of the injury report is an obvious play, he’s a must start whenever he’s on the field.

It seems as though Jeffery plays through injuries every year, but he’s not very effective when he does. His injuries tend to linger and former performance enhancer users tend to get hurt more often.


11/17/17, 09:28 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Kareem Hunt

Kansas City Chiefs

KC Ready to Run


The KC/NYG game could experience heavy winds, and certainly, a blowout of the Giants is a likely outcome as well. If either, or both of these potential situations play out, it could be good things for the KC ground game.

Fantasy Goo: The Giants have surrendered 3 rushing TD in their last 2 games. On the season, they have given up the 5th most yards to opposing backs. Hunt is a great cash game play, and in GPPs, I will toss out a few line-ups with West, maybe 5%. If indeed it is a blowout, the Chiefs, led by Reid who is 16-2 off a bye, could look to lighten the load for their workhorse RB and let Charcandrick bat cleanup.


11/17/17, 07:04 PM CST by PyromaniacMo

Source: www.cbssports.com


Charcandrick West

Kansas City Chiefs

KC Ready to Run


The KC/NYG game could experience heavy winds, and certainly, a blowout of the Giants is a likely outcome as well. If either, or both of these potential situations play out, it could be good things for the KC ground game.

Fantasy Goo: The Giants have surrendered 3 rushing TD in their last 2 games. On the season, they have given up the 5th most yards to opposing backs. Hunt is a great cash game play, and in GPPs, I will toss out a few line-ups with West, maybe 5%. If indeed it is a blowout, the Chiefs, led by Reid who is 16-2 off a bye, could look to lighten the load for their workhorse RB and let Charcandrick bat cleanup.


11/17/17, 07:04 PM CST by PyromaniacMo

Source: www.cbssports.com


Sterling Shepard

New York Giants

Sterling Shepard's Time to Shine


The Giants are going to need to put the ball in the air against KC. Keep an eye on the winds in this one. If it is north of 15mph, I will lessen my DFS shares.

Fantasy Goo: If the winds are not bad, Shep could get some looks as he should dominate KC's Steven Nelson. There are 84 starting cornerbacks in the NFL for Week #11. Nelson comes in at #80 according to PFF


11/17/17, 06:55 PM CST by PyromaniacMo

Source: www.nflweather.com


Tom Brady

New England Patriots

Brady a Top Bet for DFS Cash Games


The Patriots stayed in mile-high country last week in order to get acclimated to higher altitudes. The Raiders remained at sea level. This week they square off in Mexico City, which is much higher than one mile up. The difference could be seen in the 2nd half where the Raiders could run out of gas.

Fantasy Goo: Regardless of the elevation narrative, this game opened as the only 50 pointer this coming week. Football Outsiders ranks Oakland dead last for defensive DVOA, weighted defense, and overall pass ranking. Plus, Tom Brady is a great stack with Gronk against Oakland who is notoriously bad versus tight ends. Finally, New England will likely be missing Hogan, the recipient of 11 red zone targets this season. Gronk could easily be the beneficiary, as he has 13 himself.


11/17/17, 06:38 PM CST by PyromaniacMo

Source: www.footballoutsiders.com


Rob Gronkowski

New England Patriots

Brady a Top Bet for DFS Cash Games


The Patriots stayed in mile-high country last week in order to get acclimated to higher altitudes. The Raiders remained at sea level. This week they square off in Mexico City, which is much higher than one mile up. The difference could be seen in the 2nd half where the Raiders could run out of gas.

Fantasy Goo: Regardless of the elevation narrative, this game opened as the only 50 pointer this coming week. Football Outsiders ranks Oakland dead last for defensive DVOA, weighted defense, and overall pass ranking. Plus, Tom Brady is a great stack with Gronk against Oakland who is notoriously bad versus tight ends. Finally, New England will likely be missing Hogan, the recipient of 11 red zone targets this season. Gronk could easily be the beneficiary, as he has 13 himself.


11/17/17, 06:38 PM CST by PyromaniacMo

Source: www.footballoutsiders.com


Chris Hogan

New England Patriots

Brady a Top Bet for DFS Cash Games


The Patriots stayed in mile-high country last week in order to get acclimated to higher altitudes. The Raiders remained at sea level. This week they square off in Mexico City, which is much higher than one mile up. The difference could be seen in the 2nd half where the Raiders could run out of gas.

Fantasy Goo: Regardless of the elevation narrative, this game opened as the only 50 pointer this coming week. Football Outsiders ranks Oakland dead last for defensive DVOA, weighted defense, and overall pass ranking. Plus, Tom Brady is a great stack with Gronk against Oakland who is notoriously bad versus tight ends. Finally, New England will likely be missing Hogan, the recipient of 11 red zone targets this season. Gronk could easily be the beneficiary, as he has 13 himself.


11/17/17, 06:38 PM CST by PyromaniacMo

Source: www.footballoutsiders.com


Mike Evans

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

FanDuel Triple Play - Pass Go Collect 2TDS


This Sunday is "National Play Monopoly day." What does that mean for FD? Absolutely nothing, but I'm taking a "chance" and grabbing these 3 players that have a bit higher price tag because that's how I won at Monopoly.

Mike Evans @MIA - $7,800 - Much like AJ Green last week, I am banking on Evans to deliver his game of redemption and bounce back in a BIG way. Ryan Fitzpatrick will only have eyes for the 6'5 Evans as he once did for Brandon Marshall in NY. Evans will coast down A1A for 2TDS!

Travis Kelce @NYG - $7,500 - Kelce has 3TDs in the last 3 games. The Giants are giving up a TD every game to opposing TEs this season. That's crazy! Momma ain't raise no fool. 1+1= 2TDs!

Melvin Gordon vsBUF - $7,800 - The Bills gave up 50FPTS at home to the Saints dynamic duo of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara just last week, and now have to fly to LA. Gordon will stampede all over the Buffalo Bills. 2TDs in da house!


11/16/17, 12:43 AM CST by Pete Z

Source: www.pyromaniac.com


Travis Kelce

Kansas City Chiefs

FanDuel Triple Play - Pass Go Collect 2TDS


This Sunday is "National Play Monopoly day." What does that mean for FD? Absolutely nothing, but I'm taking a "chance" and grabbing these 3 players that have a bit higher price tag because that's how I won at Monopoly.

Mike Evans @MIA - $7,800 - Much like AJ Green last week, I am banking on Evans to deliver his game of redemption and bounce back in a BIG way. Ryan Fitzpatrick will only have eyes for the 6'5 Evans as he once did for Brandon Marshall in NY. Evans will coast down A1A for 2TDS!

Travis Kelce @NYG - $7,500 - Kelce has 3TDs in the last 3 games. The Giants are giving up a TD every game to opposing TEs this season. That's crazy! Momma ain't raise no fool. 1+1= 2TDs!

Melvin Gordon vsBUF - $7,800 - The Bills gave up 50FPTS at home to the Saints dynamic duo of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara just last week, and now have to fly to LA. Gordon will stampede all over the Buffalo Bills. 2TDs in da house!


11/16/17, 12:42 AM CST by Pete Z

Source: www.pyromaniac.com


Melvin Gordon

Los Angeles Chargers

FanDuel Triple Play - Pass Go Collect 2TDS


This Sunday is "National Play Monopoly day." What does that mean for FD? Absolutely nothing, but I'm taking a "chance" and grabbing these 3 players that have a bit higher price tag because that's how I won at Monopoly.

Mike Evans @MIA - $7,800 - Much like AJ Green last week, I am banking on Evans to deliver his game of redemption and bounce back in a BIG way. Ryan Fitzpatrick will only have eyes for the 6'5 Evans as he once did for Brandon Marshall in NY. Evans will coast down A1A for 2TDS!

Travis Kelce @NYG - $7,500 - Kelce has 3TDs in the last 3 games. The Giants are giving up a TD every game to opposing TEs this season. That's crazy! Momma ain't raise no fool. 1+1= 2TDs!

Melvin Gordon vsBUF - $7,800 - The Bills gave up 50FPTS at home to the Saints dynamic duo of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara just last week, and now have to fly to LA. Gordon will stampede all over the Buffalo Bills. 2TDs in da house!


11/15/17, 11:23 PM CST by Pete Z

Source: www.pyromaniac.com


Latavius Murray

Minnesota Vikings

Waiver Wire Pickup Target for Week 11


LATAVIUS MURRAY – RB – VIKINGS – AVAILABLE IN 34% OF CBS LEAGUES

He is still getting a lot of touches, and this week had 17 carries for 68 yards with a touchdown. Getting the redzone carries makes him a worthy add in deeper leagues.


11/14/17, 07:43 PM CST by Houdini

Source: www.pyromaniac.com


Garrett Celek

San Francisco 49ers

Waiver Wire Pickup Target for Week 11


GARRETT CELEK – TE – 49ERS – AVAILABLE IN 95% OF CBS LEAGUES

With George Kittle out of the game, Celek had four catches for 67 yards with a 47-yard touchdown. He is viable as long as Kittle is out.


11/14/17, 07:43 PM CST by Houdini

Source: www.pyromaniac.com


Jamison Crowder

Washington Redskins

Waiver Wire Pickup Target for Week 11


JAMISON CROWDER – WR – REDSKINS – AVAILABLE IN 61% OF CBS LEAGUES

Crowder came back to action and had four receptions for 76 yards and one run for five yards. He is finally starting to make an impact when healthy.


11/14/17, 07:41 PM CST by Houdini

Source: www.pyromaniac.com


Matt Breida

San Francisco 49ers

Waiver Wire Pickup Target for Week 11


MATT BREIDA – RB – 49ERS – AVAILABLE IN 95% OF CBS LEAUGES

Breida had himself a nice game this week, carrying the ball nine times for 55 yards with a touchdown and had one catch for three yards. The 49ers are looking to the future, and Breida will get more looks going forward.


11/14/17, 07:41 PM CST by Houdini

Source: www.pyromaniac.com


Case Keenum

Minnesota Vikings

Waiver Wire Pickup Target for Week 11


CASE KEENUM – QB – VIKINGS – AVAILABLE IN 73% OF CBS LEAGUES

Looking for a quarterback? Well, how about Keenum? He has the job and the weapons and is doing well. This week he completed 21 of 29 passes for 304 yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions. This is a first place team and they need him the rest of the way.


11/14/17, 07:39 PM CST by Houdini

Source: www.pyromaniac.com


Corey Davis

Tennessee Titans

Waiver Wire Pickup Target for Week 11


COREY DAVIS – WR – TITANS – AVAILABLE IN 42% OF CBS LEAGUES

Davis had four receptions for 48 yards, so not what we are expecting, but there is light for the future. He is starting to see more targets, and is the future of what the Titans want to be. He will see more looks going forward.


11/14/17, 07:38 PM CST by Houdini

Source: www.pyromaniac.com


Marqise Lee

Jacksonville Jaguars

Waiver Wire Pickup Target for Week 11


MARQISE LEE – WR – JAGUARS – AVAILABLE IN 42% OF CBS LEAGUES

He is on this list every week, and he came through again with six catches for 55 yards and a score. He is the best option in the Jaguars passing game.


11/14/17, 07:38 PM CST by Houdini

Source: www.pyromaniac.com

2016 QB ADP Expectations

2016 QB ADP Expectations

Posted by Stagg Party on 08/24/16

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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When looking at players it is important to consider the range of outcomes for any given player. Each player has his own ceiling typically derived from career norms and current situation and it is commonly referred to as upside, what could happen if everything goes right. A player also has a mean outcome, which is his average, or what is most likely to happen. Finally, that same player has a floor, or what his lowest output could be on a weekly basis. These ranges all come into play on a seasonal basis as well as a weekly basis. The best fantasy players receive a high rating in each of these ranges, and it is why they are the best. Some players lower down the spectrum could have high upsides and low floors, making their range of outcomes wide and being one of those boom or bust candidates. Younger players also have yet to truly establish a baseline for performance, so their range of outcomes is a little murkier than guys who have been in the league for four or five seasons.

 

QBs Being Drafted at Ceiling

 

Ben Roethlisberger – Fantasypros ADP – QB 5 – Best Season – 300.8 – Seasons above 300.1 points – 1

 

Ben Roethlisberger is being absolutely drafted at his ceiling, selecting him as the fifth quarterback off the board gives you no room for disappointment and there are a number of reasons he could disappoint. First, over the last two seasons, he has averaged greater than five fantasy points more a game when Martavis Bryant played as opposed to games he missed. Roethlisberger also has mammoth home and road splits over the last three seasons, averaging 7 fantasy points more a game while at home. Ben still does have Antonio at his disposal, but outside of him the offense is looking like it has a lot more question marks then we expected, especially early in the season when Bell, Ladarius Green, and the aforementioned Bryant could all be missing from the lineup. Ben is also a guy who plays with reckless abandon that can lead to injuries, missing an average of 1.67 games a season over the course of his career. Add on that Big Ben’s 17.7 fantasy points a game last season falls more in line with QB10, it is hard to believe that Ben will have a positive ROI at seasons end.

 

Eli Manning - Fantasypros ADP – QB 10 – Best Season – 287.5 – Seasons above 272.4 points – 2

 

Eli Manning has just two seasons coming above 272 points, last season and 2011. He did nearly topple that number in 2014 as well, but is heavily reliant on Odell Beckham Jr. as he has averaged 23 fantasy points in 27 games with him in the lineup over the last three seasons and just under 16 fantasy points in 21 tilts without the explosive receiver. When you draft Manning however, you know that you will get 16 games out of him, but his 17.4 fantasy points per game over the last two seasons falls more in like with a QB12 than QB10. With offensive line issues remaining, and talent outside of Odell still unproven, Manning needs a lot of things to break his way to finish higher than QB10 at the end of next season.

 

Tony Romo - Fantasypros ADP – QB 12 – Best Season – 295.6 – Seasons above 267.5 points – 4

 

Tony Romo is currently being drafted as the 12th quarterback across seven different league hosting sites, and it seems like he is being overvalued. In 2014, Romo finisged as the 11th quarterback in fantasy and his 17.8 fantasy points a game fell in line with that. Tony’s best fantasy season came in 2007, when his 295 points were good for second best in the league, but due to the escalation of the leagues passing that would have ranked just seventh in the league. The Cowboys are also committed to running the ball after just spending the fourth overall pick on a running back. In 2014, Romo ranked 23rd in passing attempts and the Cowboys as a whole ranked second to last in attempts. With limited pass attempts, Romo will be a touchdown dependent quarterback for the ages.

 

Teddy Bridgewater - Fantasypros ADP – QB 21 – Best Season – 198.4 – Seasons above 187.5 points – 1

 

Teddy Bridgewater has loyal pundits at his back that talk up his ability whenever they get a chance and yet he hasn’t put it together for fantasy football success. Bridgewater has thrown just 28 touchdown passes across two seasons against 21 interceptions. Teddy has provided some rushing numbers to boost his fantasy prowess but not nearly enough to supplant that weak passing display through two seasons. Many say that AP has been holding Teddy and the offense back, but he averaged just 1 more fantasy point a game without him in the lineup over the last two seasons. The hope for Bridgewater is that their young offensive weaponry improves as they head further into their careers. In terms of fantasy points per game, Bridgewater’13 fantasy points a game wouldn’t even rank in the top-25 for quarterbacks over the last three seasons. Bridgewater is a guy I avoid at his price and I suggest you do the same.

 

QB ADP Expectations


Undervalued QBs

 

Drew Brees - Fantasypros ADP – QB 6 – Best Season – 387.6 – Seasons above 297.4 points – 6

 

Drew Brees is finally coming at a value in fantasy drafts after years of being a first and second round pick because of his sheer dominance. Now going in the fifth round Brees represents a value, especially when Big Ben comes off the board before him. Brees has arguably upgraded his supporting cast this offseason with Coby Fleener and Michael Thomas added in free agency and the draft respectively. Brees has a top offensive line, a plethora of weapons, and a playcaller who loves to air it out. Brees is also likely to return value at his ADP and the 18.8 fantasy point per game threshold of QB6 has been surpassed by Brees and incredible seven times.

 

Philip Rivers - Fantasypros ADP – QB 11 – Best Season – 288.3 – Seasons above 270.3 points – 4

 

Philip Rivers is a trendy pick to be a top ten quarterback again next season with the return of Ken Whisenhunt to run the offense. Rivers looks primed to have a bit of a resurgence again under Wiz who he had his career year under the former Tennessee head coach. Philip was on a tear to open last season, checking in as the number two quarterback over the first half of last season. Rivers should also have a deeper offensive skill group this season with Melvin Gordon flashing in preseason, Danny Woodhead his usual sturdy self, Keenan Allen returning from his ruptured kidney, Travis Benjamin coming over in free agency, Antonio Gates hopefully around for a whole season chasing the tight end touchdown record, and the young receivers getting another year under their belt. Wiz was able to skyrocket Rivers efficiency by focusing on the run game, expect that to happen again this season with Rivers able to get the ball out to his playmakers if their offensive line can remain somewhat healthy.

 

Matthew Stafford - Fantasypros ADP – QB 18 – Best Season – 339.3 – Seasons above 223.7 points – 5

 

Matthew Stafford was always a guy with unrealized potential after throwing for over 5,000 yards and 41 touchdowns in 2011. Since then he has been unable to reach those lofty heights despite putting up solid fantasy totals nearly every season. In 2012, Stafford finished as the 11th QB, in 2013 he was the seventh QB, 2014 saw him finish as the 15th quarterback, and last season saw him finish as QB8. Everyone must be attributing Stafford’s success solely to Calvin Johnson who has since retired and Stafford has been drafted as QB 18. Over the last three seasons, Johnson missed three games and Stafford averaged nearly 19 fantasy points a game, below his 22 points a game. That number shrinks by just a one point difference over the last two seasons, lets remember the guys that were there for Stafford to throw to outside of Megatron before Tate was added. With Marvin Jones, Golden Tate, Eric Ebron and a slew of capable receiving backs, Stafford arguably has one of the best supporting casts of his career. Stafford has five seasons blowing away the baseline set by his ADP, as well as five seasons above the 16 fantasy point per game threshold.

 

Matt Ryan - Fantasypros ADP – QB 20 – Best Season – 304.9 – Seasons above 202.1 points – 6

 

Ryan is coming off a down season that has destroyed his ADP to the point where he has become a value. In a down season, Ryan threw for 4,591 yards but turned it over more than ever before in his career and had the fewest touchdowns since his rookie season. Even though he underwhelmed his high ADP last season, he looks primed to blow it out of the water in 2016. Currently being drafted as the 20th quarterback off the board, Ryan’s expected fantasy points over the last three years are just 202.1, a number that he has surpassed in each of the last six seasons. Ryan should see an increase in his touchdown passes as the team is geared toward throwing the rock, and is arguably even better than last season as they added Mohamed Sanu and Austin Hooper during the offseason. With a top flight offensive line and one of the top wide receivers in football, expect Matt Ryan to return a positive to your teams in drafts this season. 

 

 

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by Stagg Party


  

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