Week 11
November 19, 2017
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Leonard Fournette

Jacksonville Jaguars

Rookie Wall?


Fournette came off of essentially 20 days of resting and rehabbing the injured ankle suffered in the fourth quarter of Jacksonville’s October 15th loss to the Rams, when he suited up last week against the L.A. Chargers. Last week, he carried 17 times for 33 yards. According to Florida Football Insiders, Leonard Fournette's ankle is "still not right," and he could be limited if he plays this week against the Browns.

I’ve heard a few people recognize that Cleveland’s run defense has been underrated this year. They started out pretty strong, but they have been fading lately, especially when it comes to the pass-catching backs over the past five games. Yeldon or Ivory could be that sneaky flex you’re looking for.


11/18/17, 11:12 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.floridafootballinsiders.com

Jacksonville Jaguars

Ground and Pound


According to Forecast.io, it's expected to be 39° F and with a 18% chance of snow and 20 MPH wind in Cleveland at 1:00 PM ET.

This is something to watch Sunday morning, especially if you were high on the Jacksonville passing game facing Cleveland this weekend. The snow doesn’t matter, but the wind could eliminate any deep balls. If you’re looking for a Dede or K. Cole explosion, like I have been, I think we’re going to have to wait at least one more week. Marquis Lee should be fine, he’ll still get his targets. The running game should benefit, but Fournette is questionable with an ankle.


11/18/17, 11:02 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotowire.com


Jay Ajayi

Philadelphia Eagles

Ajayi Slated for More Work in Week 11


Coaches have come out and said there is a concentrated effort to increase Ajayi's workload.

Fantasy Goo: Certainly Corey Clement impressed in their last game, Week 9 against Denver. However, he won't sustain the pace of 3TDs on just 13 touches. I do like both players in GPP, I would certainly save Clement for the larger tournaments where you take on more risk in order to differentiate yourself from the field. Still, Ajayi has had a bye week and a game to get familiar with his new digs. Each game from now on, should highlight his comfort and growth in the system.


11/18/17, 03:02 PM CST by PyromaniacMo

Source: www.philly.com


Devonta Freeman

Atlanta Falcons

Coleman to Increase Workload Sans Freeman


Devonta Freeman is in concussion protocol. That leaves Tevin 'Betchya Bottom Dollar" Coleman to pick up extra duties.

Fantasy Goo: Freeman was taken out very early on in last week's game. Because of this, Coleman seized the reins with command. He finished as Draft Kings 10th best RB of the week. Their Week 11 matchup with the Seahawks could easily turn into a high schoring affair as Seattle is without starters Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor, and Jarran Reed. What Seattle puts on the field will not resemble what we are accustomed to. Coleman should seize thee opportunity.


11/18/17, 02:33 PM CST by PyromaniacMo

Source: www.fftoday.com


Tevin Coleman

Atlanta Falcons

Coleman to Increase Workload Sans Freeman


Devonta Freeman is in concussion protocol. That leaves Tevin 'Betchya Bottom Dollar" Coleman to pick up extra duties.

Fantasy Goo: Freeman was taken out very early on in last week's game. Because of this, Coleman seized the reins with command. He finished as Draft Kings 10th best RB of the week. Their Week 11 matchup with the Seahawks could easily turn into a high schoring affair as Seattle is without starters Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor, and Jarran Reed. What Seattle puts on the field will not resemble what we are accustomed to. Coleman should seize thee opportunity.


11/18/17, 02:33 PM CST by PyromaniacMo

Source: www.fftoday.com

Buffalo Bills

Bills Getting Gashed


In the last 3 weeks, the Buffalo Bills have given up 8 TDS. There is not a team in the league that has given up more than 8 rushing TDS ALL SEASON!

Fantasy Goo: There is trepidation about Gordon this week. Ekeler made a bit of a name for himself last week as Gordon owners experienced fits or rage and madness last week. I still like Gordon even in cash this week. Still whichever back you prefer, they should have a field day.


11/18/17, 12:55 PM CST by PyromaniacMo

Source: www.fftoday.com


Jamaal Williams

Green Bay Packers

Next Man Up


As expected, Ty Montgomery officially ruled OUT for Sunday against the Ravens. Jamaal Williams should start at running back.

Williams is not Montgomery or Jones, I would not recommend starting him if you can prevent it. It will probably take a positive game script for him to be heavily use, don’t be surprised if we see Cobb being used in the backfield, especially in third-and-long situations.


11/17/17, 09:32 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alshon Jeffery

Philadelphia Eagles

Open Door for Agholor


Eagles coach Doug Pederson says that Alshon Jeffery's ankle injury has been lingering for a while, but he is "optimistic" he'll play against the Cowboys Sunday night. He will be listed as questionable.

I’m looking at Nelson Agholor having a nice opportunity to put up some points with Dallas being the 24th ranked defense against opposing WR’s. Ertz coming off of the injury report is an obvious play, he’s a must start whenever he’s on the field.

It seems as though Jeffery plays through injuries every year, but he’s not very effective when he does. His injuries tend to linger and former performance enhancer users tend to get hurt more often.


11/17/17, 09:28 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Kareem Hunt

Kansas City Chiefs

KC Ready to Run


The KC/NYG game could experience heavy winds, and certainly, a blowout of the Giants is a likely outcome as well. If either, or both of these potential situations play out, it could be good things for the KC ground game.

Fantasy Goo: The Giants have surrendered 3 rushing TD in their last 2 games. On the season, they have given up the 5th most yards to opposing backs. Hunt is a great cash game play, and in GPPs, I will toss out a few line-ups with West, maybe 5%. If indeed it is a blowout, the Chiefs, led by Reid who is 16-2 off a bye, could look to lighten the load for their workhorse RB and let Charcandrick bat cleanup.


11/17/17, 07:04 PM CST by PyromaniacMo

Source: www.cbssports.com


Charcandrick West

Kansas City Chiefs

KC Ready to Run


The KC/NYG game could experience heavy winds, and certainly, a blowout of the Giants is a likely outcome as well. If either, or both of these potential situations play out, it could be good things for the KC ground game.

Fantasy Goo: The Giants have surrendered 3 rushing TD in their last 2 games. On the season, they have given up the 5th most yards to opposing backs. Hunt is a great cash game play, and in GPPs, I will toss out a few line-ups with West, maybe 5%. If indeed it is a blowout, the Chiefs, led by Reid who is 16-2 off a bye, could look to lighten the load for their workhorse RB and let Charcandrick bat cleanup.


11/17/17, 07:04 PM CST by PyromaniacMo

Source: www.cbssports.com


Sterling Shepard

New York Giants

Sterling Shepard's Time to Shine


The Giants are going to need to put the ball in the air against KC. Keep an eye on the winds in this one. If it is north of 15mph, I will lessen my DFS shares.

Fantasy Goo: If the winds are not bad, Shep could get some looks as he should dominate KC's Steven Nelson. There are 84 starting cornerbacks in the NFL for Week #11. Nelson comes in at #80 according to PFF


11/17/17, 06:55 PM CST by PyromaniacMo

Source: www.nflweather.com


Tom Brady

New England Patriots

Brady a Top Bet for DFS Cash Games


The Patriots stayed in mile-high country last week in order to get acclimated to higher altitudes. The Raiders remained at sea level. This week they square off in Mexico City, which is much higher than one mile up. The difference could be seen in the 2nd half where the Raiders could run out of gas.

Fantasy Goo: Regardless of the elevation narrative, this game opened as the only 50 pointer this coming week. Football Outsiders ranks Oakland dead last for defensive DVOA, weighted defense, and overall pass ranking. Plus, Tom Brady is a great stack with Gronk against Oakland who is notoriously bad versus tight ends. Finally, New England will likely be missing Hogan, the recipient of 11 red zone targets this season. Gronk could easily be the beneficiary, as he has 13 himself.


11/17/17, 06:38 PM CST by PyromaniacMo

Source: www.footballoutsiders.com


Rob Gronkowski

New England Patriots

Brady a Top Bet for DFS Cash Games


The Patriots stayed in mile-high country last week in order to get acclimated to higher altitudes. The Raiders remained at sea level. This week they square off in Mexico City, which is much higher than one mile up. The difference could be seen in the 2nd half where the Raiders could run out of gas.

Fantasy Goo: Regardless of the elevation narrative, this game opened as the only 50 pointer this coming week. Football Outsiders ranks Oakland dead last for defensive DVOA, weighted defense, and overall pass ranking. Plus, Tom Brady is a great stack with Gronk against Oakland who is notoriously bad versus tight ends. Finally, New England will likely be missing Hogan, the recipient of 11 red zone targets this season. Gronk could easily be the beneficiary, as he has 13 himself.


11/17/17, 06:38 PM CST by PyromaniacMo

Source: www.footballoutsiders.com


Chris Hogan

New England Patriots

Brady a Top Bet for DFS Cash Games


The Patriots stayed in mile-high country last week in order to get acclimated to higher altitudes. The Raiders remained at sea level. This week they square off in Mexico City, which is much higher than one mile up. The difference could be seen in the 2nd half where the Raiders could run out of gas.

Fantasy Goo: Regardless of the elevation narrative, this game opened as the only 50 pointer this coming week. Football Outsiders ranks Oakland dead last for defensive DVOA, weighted defense, and overall pass ranking. Plus, Tom Brady is a great stack with Gronk against Oakland who is notoriously bad versus tight ends. Finally, New England will likely be missing Hogan, the recipient of 11 red zone targets this season. Gronk could easily be the beneficiary, as he has 13 himself.


11/17/17, 06:38 PM CST by PyromaniacMo

Source: www.footballoutsiders.com


Mike Evans

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

FanDuel Triple Play - Pass Go Collect 2TDS


This Sunday is "National Play Monopoly day." What does that mean for FD? Absolutely nothing, but I'm taking a "chance" and grabbing these 3 players that have a bit higher price tag because that's how I won at Monopoly.

Mike Evans @MIA - $7,800 - Much like AJ Green last week, I am banking on Evans to deliver his game of redemption and bounce back in a BIG way. Ryan Fitzpatrick will only have eyes for the 6'5 Evans as he once did for Brandon Marshall in NY. Evans will coast down A1A for 2TDS!

Travis Kelce @NYG - $7,500 - Kelce has 3TDs in the last 3 games. The Giants are giving up a TD every game to opposing TEs this season. That's crazy! Momma ain't raise no fool. 1+1= 2TDs!

Melvin Gordon vsBUF - $7,800 - The Bills gave up 50FPTS at home to the Saints dynamic duo of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara just last week, and now have to fly to LA. Gordon will stampede all over the Buffalo Bills. 2TDs in da house!


11/16/17, 12:43 AM CST by Pete Z

Source: www.pyromaniac.com


Travis Kelce

Kansas City Chiefs

FanDuel Triple Play - Pass Go Collect 2TDS


This Sunday is "National Play Monopoly day." What does that mean for FD? Absolutely nothing, but I'm taking a "chance" and grabbing these 3 players that have a bit higher price tag because that's how I won at Monopoly.

Mike Evans @MIA - $7,800 - Much like AJ Green last week, I am banking on Evans to deliver his game of redemption and bounce back in a BIG way. Ryan Fitzpatrick will only have eyes for the 6'5 Evans as he once did for Brandon Marshall in NY. Evans will coast down A1A for 2TDS!

Travis Kelce @NYG - $7,500 - Kelce has 3TDs in the last 3 games. The Giants are giving up a TD every game to opposing TEs this season. That's crazy! Momma ain't raise no fool. 1+1= 2TDs!

Melvin Gordon vsBUF - $7,800 - The Bills gave up 50FPTS at home to the Saints dynamic duo of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara just last week, and now have to fly to LA. Gordon will stampede all over the Buffalo Bills. 2TDs in da house!


11/16/17, 12:42 AM CST by Pete Z

Source: www.pyromaniac.com


Melvin Gordon

Los Angeles Chargers

FanDuel Triple Play - Pass Go Collect 2TDS


This Sunday is "National Play Monopoly day." What does that mean for FD? Absolutely nothing, but I'm taking a "chance" and grabbing these 3 players that have a bit higher price tag because that's how I won at Monopoly.

Mike Evans @MIA - $7,800 - Much like AJ Green last week, I am banking on Evans to deliver his game of redemption and bounce back in a BIG way. Ryan Fitzpatrick will only have eyes for the 6'5 Evans as he once did for Brandon Marshall in NY. Evans will coast down A1A for 2TDS!

Travis Kelce @NYG - $7,500 - Kelce has 3TDs in the last 3 games. The Giants are giving up a TD every game to opposing TEs this season. That's crazy! Momma ain't raise no fool. 1+1= 2TDs!

Melvin Gordon vsBUF - $7,800 - The Bills gave up 50FPTS at home to the Saints dynamic duo of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara just last week, and now have to fly to LA. Gordon will stampede all over the Buffalo Bills. 2TDs in da house!


11/15/17, 11:23 PM CST by Pete Z

Source: www.pyromaniac.com


Latavius Murray

Minnesota Vikings

Waiver Wire Pickup Target for Week 11


LATAVIUS MURRAY – RB – VIKINGS – AVAILABLE IN 34% OF CBS LEAGUES

He is still getting a lot of touches, and this week had 17 carries for 68 yards with a touchdown. Getting the redzone carries makes him a worthy add in deeper leagues.


11/14/17, 07:43 PM CST by Houdini

Source: www.pyromaniac.com


Garrett Celek

San Francisco 49ers

Waiver Wire Pickup Target for Week 11


GARRETT CELEK – TE – 49ERS – AVAILABLE IN 95% OF CBS LEAGUES

With George Kittle out of the game, Celek had four catches for 67 yards with a 47-yard touchdown. He is viable as long as Kittle is out.


11/14/17, 07:43 PM CST by Houdini

Source: www.pyromaniac.com


Jamison Crowder

Washington Redskins

Waiver Wire Pickup Target for Week 11


JAMISON CROWDER – WR – REDSKINS – AVAILABLE IN 61% OF CBS LEAGUES

Crowder came back to action and had four receptions for 76 yards and one run for five yards. He is finally starting to make an impact when healthy.


11/14/17, 07:41 PM CST by Houdini

Source: www.pyromaniac.com


Matt Breida

San Francisco 49ers

Waiver Wire Pickup Target for Week 11


MATT BREIDA – RB – 49ERS – AVAILABLE IN 95% OF CBS LEAUGES

Breida had himself a nice game this week, carrying the ball nine times for 55 yards with a touchdown and had one catch for three yards. The 49ers are looking to the future, and Breida will get more looks going forward.


11/14/17, 07:41 PM CST by Houdini

Source: www.pyromaniac.com


Case Keenum

Minnesota Vikings

Waiver Wire Pickup Target for Week 11


CASE KEENUM – QB – VIKINGS – AVAILABLE IN 73% OF CBS LEAGUES

Looking for a quarterback? Well, how about Keenum? He has the job and the weapons and is doing well. This week he completed 21 of 29 passes for 304 yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions. This is a first place team and they need him the rest of the way.


11/14/17, 07:39 PM CST by Houdini

Source: www.pyromaniac.com


Corey Davis

Tennessee Titans

Waiver Wire Pickup Target for Week 11


COREY DAVIS – WR – TITANS – AVAILABLE IN 42% OF CBS LEAGUES

Davis had four receptions for 48 yards, so not what we are expecting, but there is light for the future. He is starting to see more targets, and is the future of what the Titans want to be. He will see more looks going forward.


11/14/17, 07:38 PM CST by Houdini

Source: www.pyromaniac.com


Marqise Lee

Jacksonville Jaguars

Waiver Wire Pickup Target for Week 11


MARQISE LEE – WR – JAGUARS – AVAILABLE IN 42% OF CBS LEAGUES

He is on this list every week, and he came through again with six catches for 55 yards and a score. He is the best option in the Jaguars passing game.


11/14/17, 07:38 PM CST by Houdini

Source: www.pyromaniac.com

2016 TE ADP Expectations

2016 TE ADP Expectations

Posted by Stagg Party on 08/24/16

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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When looking at players it is important to consider the range of outcomes for any given player. Each player has his own ceiling typically derived from career norms and current situation and it is commonly referred to as upside, what could happen if everything goes right. A player also has a mean outcome, which is his average, or what is most likely to happen. Finally, that same player has a floor, or what his lowest output could be on a weekly basis. These ranges all come into play on a seasonal basis as well as a weekly basis. The best fantasy players receive a high rating in each of these ranges, and it is why they are the best. Some players lower down the spectrum could have high upsides and low floors, making their range of outcomes wide and being one of those boom or bust candidates. Younger players also have yet to truly establish a baseline for performance, so their range of outcomes is a little murkier than guys who have been in the league for four or five seasons. 


 

TEs Being Drafted at Ceiling

 

Travis Kelce – Fantasypros ADP – TE 4 – Best Season – 113.5 – Seasons above 140.3 points – 0

 

Travis Kelce is currently being drafted as the fourth tight end off the board across platforms, it seems that he is a bit overvalued based on his two seasons of play at the NFL level so far. When you draft Kelce you are looking for the tight end four and expect him to produce like such, but the tight end four has a 140-point threshold that Kelce has yet to come within 25 points of. In terms of points per game, the TE4 is also expected to put up double digit points per game, and Kelce has produced 7 points per game over the last two seasons, numbers more indicative of the TE10. Kelce ranked just 13th at the position in targets per game (6.4) and has yet to prove that he can be a dominator in the redzone which he would need to be because of his low passing game volume. When you select Kelce as the fourth tight end off the board you are paying a premium for what he could be, and not what he has proven to be so far in his career, which is good but not great.

 

Ladarius Green – Fantasypros ADP – TE 9 – Best Season – 66.9 – Seasons above 105.8 points – 0

 

Headache or ankle issues aside, when you select Green you are doing it for what he could be, and not what he has shown so far in his career. Ladarius’ best season came last year when he scored just under 67 points, good for 22nd in the league, but he did this playing in just 13 games. The reasons to think Green could best his previous statistical highs are plentiful, the passing game he’s now in, the vacated redzone and regular targets by Bryant and Miller, the splits without Gates in the lineup, and the paycheck that comes with expectations that he would be the number one player at the position for the first time in his career. With the injury questions and lack of a statistical profile, Green should be left for someone else to draft especially if his ADP remains as high as it has all summer.

 

Zach Ertz – Fantasypros ADP – TE 11 – Best Season – 95.3 – Seasons above 93.4 points – 1

 

Zach Ertz is a guy you will have to spend some draft capital on to get him on your fantasy team as he is considered a player that could get a small boost by switching systems as the offense deployed by Doug Pedersen is tight end friendly. While there is also the offsetting concern that the Eagles will slow down their offense in general. Ertz’s best season came last year, and while the catches and yards were there the touchdowns were still hard to come by and possibly will continually be. Ertz has just a 3.5% touchdown rate on his targets. It is unlikely that he sees a giant uptick in targets with the changeover in offenses, and the touchdowns just might not come, but could he put up a similar statline to Travis Kelce at a lower price? Sure, that could happen, but the touchdowns will need to come. Ertz is a guy who could be overvalued at his ADP or could prove to be a value depending on how many times he finds the endzone next season.   

 

 

2016 TE ADP Expectations

 

Undervalued TEs

 

Julius Thomas – Fantasypros ADP – TE 10 – Best Season – 150.8 – Seasons above 99.8 points – 2

 

Julius Thomas is currently being drafted as the tenth tight end off the board after seasons of being a top five pick among tight ends. Thomas has gotten a fully healthy training camp with Blake Bortles and the rest of this ascending offense after missing most of last year’s camp with a broken finger. Thomas played 12 games last season and averaged 6.3 fantasy points a game, numbers in line with TE15. Thomas does have two seasons of double-digit fantasy points per game performances under his belt and there is a solid chance he could rebound yet again in 2016. Thomas has been one of the most hyped up players in their camp so far this season, and with touchdowns likely to spread out amongst the team, Thomas could end up as green on the ROI chart come the end of the season.

 

Antonio Gates – Fantasypros ADP – TE 12 – Best Season – 174.4 – Seasons above 90.2 points – 12

 

Antonio Gates is one of the best tight ends of all-time and is being drafted like a second-class citizen as the tight end twelve. Luckily for you, his ADP is suppressed enough that when you draft him you are sure to get a value. His ADP expectation is just 90 points, a threshold that he has surpassed 12 different times in his career, including last season in 11 games. In terms of points per game last season, Gates finished last season 7th, and his 8.5 points per game falls between TE6 and TE7 over the last three seasons. With just 8 touchdowns needed to be the all-time leader by a tight ends, and Philip Rivers saying he has every intention of getting him the record, Gates could be even better than last season. If you can get him at TE12 in drafts, you are stealing and sure to see him in the green in ROI at the end of the season. 

 

Read the Quarterbacks

 

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by Stagg Party


  

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