May 22, 2018


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Eric Ebron

Detroit Lions

Ebron Could Use Some Luck

Colts signed TE Eric Ebron, formerly of the Lions, to a two-year contract. Coach Frank Reich called Ebron an "elite tight end."

The last time we saw Andrew Luck healthy (2016), the Colts used 2+ TE sets at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL and had the 6th-highest target share to TEs.

04/01/18, 11:32 AM CDT by Wheeler


Carlos Hyde

San Francisco 49ers

Hyde and Seek

Browns agreed to terms with RB Carlos Hyde, formerly of the 49ers, on a three-year, $15 million contract.

Obtaining Hyde has several trickle-down effects; first it replaces Crowell who signed with the Jets, it probably diminishes Duke Johnson’s value a bit. Hyde is a better all-around back than Crowell was and will certainly take over the goal-line work seeing that he’s got 20+ pounds on Duke. It also reduces the likelihood that Cleveland takes Saquon Barkley with the 4th pick in the draft. They will most likely look to draft a defensive player (Chubb) or trade down again.

04/01/18, 11:28 AM CDT by Wheeler


Jerick McKinnon

Minnesota Vikings

McKinnon Goes West For Gold-Rush

49ers agreed to terms with RB Jerick McKinnon, formerly of the Vikings, on a four-year, $30 million contract.

McKinnon averaged a ho-hum 3.8 yards a carry for the Vikings and scored three rushing touchdowns. By contrast, San Francisco's former lead runner, Carlos Hyde, averaged 3.9 yards an attempt in 2017 and had eight rushing touchdowns.

It appears as though Shanahan is enamored with McKinnon's athletic metrics, but I'm not so sure he was "pounding the table" to get him. This move could push the Niner's to cut Joe Williams.

04/01/18, 11:12 AM CDT by Wheeler


Mike Wallace

Baltimore Ravens

Eagles Keep Improving

Eagles signed WR Mike Wallace to a one-year contract.
Mike Wallace can still move posting a top five max speed among wide receivers last season. He will fill the void left by Torrey Smith as a speed vertical threat.

04/01/18, 11:08 AM CDT by Wheeler


Terrelle Pryor

Washington Redskins

Jets Searching For Weapons

Jets agreed to terms with WR Terrelle Pryor, formerly of Washington and Cleveland.

Second year in a row on a new team doesn’t really help Pryor's cause, but I like the idea of him on the field with Teddy Bridgewater at some point. I would imagine, with some creativity, the Jets could really design some innovative gadget plays.
The Jets receiving corps really looks like a bunch of question marks at this point though, no telling what the week-to-week outcome will be with these guys.
Jermaine Kearse: 65 catches, 810 yards, 5 touchdowns (2017)
Robby Anderson: 63 catches, 941 yards, 7 touchdowns (2017)
Quincy Enunwa: 58 catches, 857 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)
Terrelle Pryor: 77 catches, 1007 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)

04/01/18, 11:04 AM CDT by Wheeler


Carlos Henderson

Denver Broncos

Sleeper Watch

Broncos coach Vance Joseph said the team is "counting on" Carlos Henderson making an impact in 2018.

If you are paying attention to Staggs projections there is plenty of opportunity for Henderson to step into a solid number of targets in the slot. Henderson was hindered by injury and awful QB play last year. Being drafted in the 18th round or later in best-ball leagues, Henderson is the late round flyer that should be on your radar.

04/01/18, 11:00 AM CDT by Wheeler


Ben Watson

Baltimore Ravens

Watson Returns To Big Easy

Saints signed TE Ben Watson, formerly of the Ravens, to a one-year contract.

Watson had 74 catches on 110 targets for 825 yards and 6 TD’s when he was with the Saints in 2015. After missing 2016 he had a pretty good year with Baltimore last year despite an anemic offense, with 61 catches on 79 targets for 522 yards and 4 TD’s. He’s not a bad late round flyer TE. He’s basically free right now, but I expect by the time the season starts he’ll be being drafted within the top 20 at the position.

04/01/18, 10:54 AM CDT by Wheeler


Jeff Janis

Green Bay Packers

Janis Truthers Challenged

Browns officially signed former Packers’ WR Jeff Janis.
The combine superstar never amounted to anything in Green Bay, I highly doubt Cleveland is the place for him to finally break-out.

04/01/18, 10:50 AM CDT by Wheeler


Thomas Rawls

Seattle Seahawks

Jets Sign Rawls

Rawls had five RB1 games in 2015, one in 2016, and has been a disappointment since. He’s not worth your time in fantasy, but he could cause enough disruption in the Jets backfield to cut any upside we might have hoped for from Isaiah Crowell.

04/01/18, 10:48 AM CDT by Wheeler


Allen Robinson

Jacksonville Jaguars

Coo coo ca choo Mr. Robinson

Bears signed WR Allen Robinson, formerly of the Jaguars, to a three-year, $42 million contract.

This is a great move for Robinson and Chicago. Nagy’s offense and the young QB, Trubiski, should benefit Robinson at least as much as Bortles did, and Chicago gets the top WR in free agency.
Everyone on the team will be in a new scheme so there will be an adjustment, but as they start to gel we should see a big second half. Robinson’s recovery from a torn ACL doesn’t scare me away from drafting him in the late third/early fourth, his current MFL10 ADP is 43 overall while his Draft app ADP is 59.9. I expect Robinson to be somewhere in the range of 75 receptions, for 1100 yards and 8 TD’s.

03/24/18, 08:25 PM CDT by Wheeler


Sammy Watkins

Los Angeles Rams

KC Building Strong Air Attack

Chiefs signed Sammy Watkins, formerly of the Rams, to a three-year, $48 million contract.

I’m a big Sammy truther so getting him in the 5th or 6th round is a pure power move. His current Draft app ADP of 87.1 is an absolute steal, his MFL10 ADP of 69.5 is still a great value in my opinion. There are quite a few options for high targets in KC so I don’t expect him to see the 128 targets he saw his rookie year, but he should definitely see more than the 70 he saw last year. He’ll have an entire offseason to work with the near-rookie QB, and at age 25 he should have enough burst left to have a 70 catch, 1050 yd, 8TD line. For his career he has 16 receptions on 30 targets for 12 TD’s in the Red Zone, and 9 receptions on 13 targets, for 8 TD’s inside the opponents 10. He should be the exact WR the Chiefs need to get over the hump. As a team the Chiefs were 34/75 for 13 TD’s in the Red-Zone last year and 12/24 for 10 TD inside the 10.

03/24/18, 08:19 PM CDT by Wheeler


Kirk Cousins

Washington Redskins

Vikings Like That

Kirk Cousins plans to sign a three-year, fully-guaranteed contract from the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday. The deal is believed to be for around $86 million, and reports are it will be fully-guaranteed, a landmark for an NFL free agent.

Should be a lateral move for Kirk as far as fantasy, better WR’s, but fewer passes thrown in this offense. A healthy Dalvin Cook should be able to run out the clock if they are up in the second half of games and take the ball out of Cousins hands near the end zone. It should also help the overall efficiency of the offense so all in all it increases his floor, but cuts any garbage-time production we’ve seen with Washington. Kyle Rudolph becomes a big benefactor here, Cousins loves his TE, especially near the end-zone.

03/24/18, 08:16 PM CDT by Wheeler


Case Keenum

Minnesota Vikings

Denver Makes Case

Broncos signed QB Case Keenum, formerly of the Vikings, to a two-year, $36 million contract.

Well, I was hoping for more than a bridge QB for my favorite WR (D. Thomas), but this is a definite upgrade from the three stooges Denver put behind center last year.

03/24/18, 08:13 PM CDT by Wheeler


LeGarrette Blount

Philadelphia Eagles

Detroit Sparks Up Blount

The Lions signed free agent RB LeGarrette Blount to a 1-year deal worth $4.5M. He’s back with Matt Patricia, as the New England ties are strong.

The Lions have needed a true goal-line/power-back for years. I expect Blount to get between 150-200 touches and all the short-yardage carries. Detroit’s offense doesn’t really fit what Blount brings to the table, but I expect Patricia will have some influence over how the offense will operate from here-on-out.

03/24/18, 08:10 PM CDT by Wheeler


Cleveland Browns

Money Ball: The Sequel

Hate to start out the offseason with the Cleveland Browns, but they are makin’ moves!
Browns acquired: Tyrod Taylor, Jarvis Landry, Damarious Randall
Browns gave up: 2018 3rd-round pick (No. 65), 2018 4th-round pick, 2019 7th-round pick, DeShone Kizer

Building with experienced quality performers that have something to prove, by selling inconsequential draft picks is exactly what Sashi Brown was building up for. It’s a shame he won’t be around to reap the rewards, but these are quality moves for a win-now mentality.

03/09/18, 09:37 PM CST by Wheeler


Tyrod Taylor

Buffalo Bills

Hue Looks To TyGoat

Browns left tackle Joe Thomas, who's pondering his future, is a fan of Tyrod Taylor and has said so on the ThomaHawk Show podcast.

Tyrod is just one season removed (2016) from being the QB11 in average fantasy ppg, including seven 20+ point weeks and six 15+ point weeks. Given the current talent on the O-line and skill position weapons he could improve on those numbers. He has the potential to be this year’s Alex Smith, definitely heading my late-round (12+) QB picks now.

03/09/18, 09:32 PM CST by Wheeler


Deshone Kizer

Cleveland Browns

Packers Get In On The Fun

The Packers have traded for QB DeShone Kizer from the Browns to Green Bay.

This is the best possible scenario for Kizer, who was thrown into the fire last season. Getting the chance to develop and learn behind the best in the business is the best chance he has for longevity.

03/09/18, 09:30 PM CST by Wheeler


Torrey Smith

Philadelphia Eagles

On The Move Again

The Eagles trade WR Torrey Smith to the Panthers for CB Daryl Worley. Torrey Smith could fill the old Ted Ginn role which makes this fairly interesting. Stagg Party says it’s more of a boost for Cam than Torrey himself.

This is an absolute perfect fit, someone who isn’t going to demand the ball, but can take the top off a defense while McCaffrey, Olsen, and Cam work underneath. Torrey is looking like a great late-round flyer.

03/09/18, 09:28 PM CST by Wheeler


DeMarco Murray

Tennessee Titans

Henry Hype Train Has Clear Track

DeMarco Murray was released by the Titans.
No surprise here, expect Derick Henry to be a lead back with 250+ touches, but they will bring in someone that will play the third-down, pass-catching role out of the backfield. I wouldn’t be surprised if they sign someone like Jerick McKinnon or Rex Burkhead, or even Darren Sproles or Charles Sims. There are also plenty of options in the NFL draft, Henry won’t be a true “Bell Cow.”

03/09/18, 09:17 PM CST by Wheeler


Marquise Goodwin

San Francisco 49ers

The Name Says It All

Marquise Goodwin and the 49ers have agreed to a 3yr extension worth $20.3M & 10M guaranteed.

Shanahan has found his big-play threat at a reasonable price. Goodwin caught 56 balls for 962 yards last season, but only had two TD’s. None of his six longest plays (33+ yards) were from Garoppollo so it leads me to believe they will still be looking for a top of the line WR, even with Garcon coming back from injury.

03/09/18, 09:15 PM CST by Wheeler


2016 WR ADP Expectation

2016 WR ADP Expectation

Posted by Stagg Party on 08/24/16

by   The Archer


More Articals


When looking at players it is important to consider the range of outcomes for any given player. Each player has his own ceiling typically derived from career norms and current situation and it is commonly referred to as upside, what could happen if everything goes right. A player also has a mean outcome, which is his average, or what is most likely to happen. Finally, that same player has a floor, or what his lowest output could be on a weekly basis. These ranges all come into play on a seasonal basis as well as a weekly basis. The best fantasy players receive a high rating in each of these ranges, and it is why they are the best. Some players lower down the spectrum could have high upsides and low floors, making their range of outcomes wide and being one of those boom or bust candidates. Younger players also have yet to truly establish a baseline for performance, so their range of outcomes is a little murkier than guys who have been in the league for four or five seasons. 


WRs Being Drafted at Ceiling


A.J. Green – Fantasypros ADP – WR 6 – Best Season – 208.6 – Seasons above 206.5 points – 1


A.J. is currently being drafted as the sixth wide receiver off the board across formats, and there are some platforms where he is the first wide receiver off the board after the big three. Many expect all the vacated targets from Sanu and Jones, as well as potentially Eifert, will go Green’s way allowing for him to take his great efficiency from last season and couple it with increased volume. This could happen, but there is also a chance his target share increases only slightly rather than the huge boon many expect. Green finished as the 8th fantasy receiver last season on just 132 targets, and amassed his fifth straight 1,000-yard season. Green might be worth the price, but he has just one season above what we have come to expect from the sixth wide receiver in fantasy, and even if you look at points per game just one season meeting the 13 PPG threshold. Saying Green could be more than the WR5 looks like a stretch with how far the leagues passing games have progressed over the last three seasons and his relatively small statistical development. Green is one of the players likely to see a neutral return on his investment rather than be in the ‘green’.


Keenan Allen – Fantasypros ADP – WR 14 – Best Season – 148.6 – Seasons above 160.4 points – 0


Keenan Allen might have gotten more hype than any wide receiver in the league this offseason, after putting on a torrid pace while in the lineup last season. Allen is currently being drafted as WR14 across platforms after the pace of 134 catches, 1,550 yards, and 8 scores. Allen’s best full season looks more like the profile of a WR18 from ADP expectations, but his 11.8 fantasy points per game looks more like the profile of WR12. If Allen were to keep up his pace from last season, he could have finished with a WR7 profile over the last three seasons. Unfortunately for owners, you are having to pay a premium if you want his services, as he is going as high as WR10 on some platforms, and the 27th player overall according to Fantasypros Consensus ADP. Allen also will have a tough time seeing the same target share as he did early last season after the team added Travis Benjamin and Hunter Henry, and should see a full season out of Antonio Gates. When you pay up for Allen, just keep in mind that you are paying a premium and your best case result may be seeing a neutral return on your pick.


Julian Edelman – Fantasypros ADP – WR 19 – Best Season – 142.7 – Seasons above 142.6 points – 1


Julian Edelman is another hot button guy because of the torrid pace he was on to start last season. Edelman finished last season as WR37 in standard scoring just 9 games, and is currently being drafted as WR19 because of it. His 12.4 fantasy points a game ranked 8th last season and matches the profile of the 8th wide receiver over the last three seasons, but expecting him to keep up that pace seems foolish especially with all that is changed in New England. Edelman’s best career season came in 2013, which coincidentally was the only season in which he has played all 16 games, on the strength of 105 catches for 1,056 yards and six scores. Julian will now have to battle with nearly an entirely new receiving corps and the addition of Martellus Bennett for targets all while missing Tom Brady for the first four games of the season. Edelman will really have to take his game to a new level in order to provide a positive ROI for his fantasy owner.



2016 WR ADP Expectations



Undervalued WRs


Demaryius Thomas – Fantasypros ADP – WR 17 – Best Season – 227.9 – Seasons above 152.4 points – 4


Demaryius Thomas is being drafted as the 17th wide receiver off the board after finishing 13th among wide receivers. Thomas experienced some horrific quarterback play last season that some expect will improve next season while others can see a situation where it only gets worse. Demaryius may not have had his best season, but the volume was certainly there, and Gary Kubiak has shown that he traditionally feeds his number one wide receiver, see Johnson, Andre. Since falling to WR17 in ADP, Thomas has a great chance of exceeding the expected points set by ADP of 152. Thomas has surpassed that number in each of the last four seasons and should still see enough volume to exceed that number again in 2016. Thomas looks locked into double digit targets on a weekly basis and double-digit fantasy performances are sure to follow. If you can get Demaryius as the 17th WR off the board, you are doing it right and likely to see a value on your return in 2016.


Eric Decker – Fantasypros ADP – WR 25 – Best Season – 192.8 – Seasons above 133.1 points – 3


Eric Decker is America’s sweetheart, apparently this is especially true if you are a woman (or a man I guess) that only drafts a team with hot guys. Decker got the biggest gift anyone could have asked for after the return of Ryan Fitzpatrick shortly after training camp began. Decker has since seen his ADP take a slight climb, but not nearly to the point where he cant seem like a value in drafts. Deck has three seasons over his ADP expected points, and was seven points short in 2014, despite missing a game. The wide receiver 25 in fantasy points per game is expected to score 9.2 points a game, and Eric has topped that number, by an additional two points at least, three different times. Decker’s situation remains relatively unchanged, and should be considered a value when you can get him as WR25 in your drafts.


Jordan Matthews – Fantasypros ADP – WR 30 – Best Season – 145.7 – Seasons above 121.1 points – 2


Jordan Matthews is getting a bit of a knock with Chip Kelly leaving town, and understandably so, but his statistical profile through two seasons blows away his current ADP. WR30 over the last three seasons is expected to produce 121.2 and entering his third year in the league, Matthews has already surpassed that number twice. His fantasy points per game last season also points more to a wide receiver 25 than it does WR30, so consider Matthews a draft day value. Those that argue against him will argue that the plays are sure to decrease, and while true, this is still a supremely talented player just entering his third season in the league. Matthews has a chance to provide that positive ROI you look for in the middle rounds of your draft after a much higher price tag last season. 



Read the Tight Ends



Stagg Party graphic

by Stagg Party


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