Week 11
November 19, 2017
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Kansas City Chiefs

We're Not in Kansas Anymore


There are steady 20-plus MPH winds w/35 MPH gusts in New York and that will prevent the deep ball from being a major factor in the Giants game vs KC.

Look for Alex Smith revert to the dink and dunk game which defined his career before this year’s break-out campaign. I really don’t think it hurts anyone’s value though. The Giants problems stem from poor talking and Hill can take a screen pass for 80 yards at any time. The Giants are so poor against the TE that Kelce should still be heavily used in DFS. We should also see a nice bump in Hunt’s usage across the board.


11/19/17, 11:07 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Sterling Shepard

New York Giants

Migraines Sideline Shepard


The Giants may be without WR Sterling Shepard, a late addition to their injury report, due to migraines, source says. They’ll check him out closer to kickoff to be sure.
Update: Sterling Shepard (migraines) is inactive for Week 11 against the Chiefs.

This would have been an awesome match-up for Shepard, and he was looking at plenty of targets, but I don’t mess with migraines. I’m pivoting to other players, and none of them are Giants.


11/19/17, 11:04 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Leonard Fournette

Jacksonville Jaguars

Rookie Wall?


Fournette came off of essentially 20 days of resting and rehabbing the injured ankle suffered in the fourth quarter of Jacksonville’s October 15th loss to the Rams, when he suited up last week against the L.A. Chargers. Last week, he carried 17 times for 33 yards. According to Florida Football Insiders, Leonard Fournette's ankle is "still not right," and he could be limited if he plays this week against the Browns.

I’ve heard a few people recognize that Cleveland’s run defense has been underrated this year. They started out pretty strong, but they have been fading lately, especially when it comes to the pass-catching backs over the past five games. Yeldon or Ivory could be that sneaky flex you’re looking for.

Update: Fournette is active, Ivory battling illness.


11/18/17, 11:12 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.floridafootballinsiders.com

Jacksonville Jaguars

Ground and Pound


According to Forecast.io, it's expected to be 39° F and with a 18% chance of snow and 20 MPH wind in Cleveland at 1:00 PM ET.

This is something to watch Sunday morning, especially if you were high on the Jacksonville passing game facing Cleveland this weekend. The snow doesn’t matter, but the wind could eliminate any deep balls. If you’re looking for a Dede or K. Cole explosion, like I have been, I think we’re going to have to wait at least one more week. Marquis Lee should be fine, he’ll still get his targets. The running game should benefit, but Fournette is questionable with an ankle.


11/18/17, 11:02 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotowire.com


Jay Ajayi

Philadelphia Eagles

Ajayi Slated for More Work in Week 11


Coaches have come out and said there is a concentrated effort to increase Ajayi's workload.

Fantasy Goo: Certainly Corey Clement impressed in their last game, Week 9 against Denver. However, he won't sustain the pace of 3TDs on just 13 touches. I do like both players in GPP, I would certainly save Clement for the larger tournaments where you take on more risk in order to differentiate yourself from the field. Still, Ajayi has had a bye week and a game to get familiar with his new digs. Each game from now on, should highlight his comfort and growth in the system.


11/18/17, 03:02 PM CST by PyromaniacMo

Source: www.philly.com


Devonta Freeman

Atlanta Falcons

Coleman to Increase Workload Sans Freeman


Devonta Freeman is in concussion protocol. That leaves Tevin 'Betchya Bottom Dollar" Coleman to pick up extra duties.

Fantasy Goo: Freeman was taken out very early on in last week's game. Because of this, Coleman seized the reins with command. He finished as Draft Kings 10th best RB of the week. Their Week 11 matchup with the Seahawks could easily turn into a high schoring affair as Seattle is without starters Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor, and Jarran Reed. What Seattle puts on the field will not resemble what we are accustomed to. Coleman should seize thee opportunity.


11/18/17, 02:33 PM CST by PyromaniacMo

Source: www.fftoday.com


Tevin Coleman

Atlanta Falcons

Coleman to Increase Workload Sans Freeman


Devonta Freeman is in concussion protocol. That leaves Tevin 'Betchya Bottom Dollar" Coleman to pick up extra duties.

Fantasy Goo: Freeman was taken out very early on in last week's game. Because of this, Coleman seized the reins with command. He finished as Draft Kings 10th best RB of the week. Their Week 11 matchup with the Seahawks could easily turn into a high schoring affair as Seattle is without starters Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor, and Jarran Reed. What Seattle puts on the field will not resemble what we are accustomed to. Coleman should seize thee opportunity.


11/18/17, 02:33 PM CST by PyromaniacMo

Source: www.fftoday.com

Buffalo Bills

Bills Getting Gashed


In the last 3 weeks, the Buffalo Bills have given up 8 TDS. There is not a team in the league that has given up more than 8 rushing TDS ALL SEASON!

Fantasy Goo: There is trepidation about Gordon this week. Ekeler made a bit of a name for himself last week as Gordon owners experienced fits or rage and madness last week. I still like Gordon even in cash this week. Still whichever back you prefer, they should have a field day.


11/18/17, 12:55 PM CST by PyromaniacMo

Source: www.fftoday.com


Jamaal Williams

Green Bay Packers

Next Man Up


As expected, Ty Montgomery officially ruled OUT for Sunday against the Ravens. Jamaal Williams should start at running back.

Williams is not Montgomery or Jones, I would not recommend starting him if you can prevent it. It will probably take a positive game script for him to be heavily use, don’t be surprised if we see Cobb being used in the backfield, especially in third-and-long situations.


11/17/17, 09:32 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alshon Jeffery

Philadelphia Eagles

Open Door for Agholor


Eagles coach Doug Pederson says that Alshon Jeffery's ankle injury has been lingering for a while, but he is "optimistic" he'll play against the Cowboys Sunday night. He will be listed as questionable.

I’m looking at Nelson Agholor having a nice opportunity to put up some points with Dallas being the 24th ranked defense against opposing WR’s. Ertz coming off of the injury report is an obvious play, he’s a must start whenever he’s on the field.

It seems as though Jeffery plays through injuries every year, but he’s not very effective when he does. His injuries tend to linger and former performance enhancer users tend to get hurt more often.


11/17/17, 09:28 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Kareem Hunt

Kansas City Chiefs

KC Ready to Run


The KC/NYG game could experience heavy winds, and certainly, a blowout of the Giants is a likely outcome as well. If either, or both of these potential situations play out, it could be good things for the KC ground game.

Fantasy Goo: The Giants have surrendered 3 rushing TD in their last 2 games. On the season, they have given up the 5th most yards to opposing backs. Hunt is a great cash game play, and in GPPs, I will toss out a few line-ups with West, maybe 5%. If indeed it is a blowout, the Chiefs, led by Reid who is 16-2 off a bye, could look to lighten the load for their workhorse RB and let Charcandrick bat cleanup.


11/17/17, 07:04 PM CST by PyromaniacMo

Source: www.cbssports.com


Charcandrick West

Kansas City Chiefs

KC Ready to Run


The KC/NYG game could experience heavy winds, and certainly, a blowout of the Giants is a likely outcome as well. If either, or both of these potential situations play out, it could be good things for the KC ground game.

Fantasy Goo: The Giants have surrendered 3 rushing TD in their last 2 games. On the season, they have given up the 5th most yards to opposing backs. Hunt is a great cash game play, and in GPPs, I will toss out a few line-ups with West, maybe 5%. If indeed it is a blowout, the Chiefs, led by Reid who is 16-2 off a bye, could look to lighten the load for their workhorse RB and let Charcandrick bat cleanup.


11/17/17, 07:04 PM CST by PyromaniacMo

Source: www.cbssports.com


Sterling Shepard

New York Giants

Sterling Shepard's Time to Shine


The Giants are going to need to put the ball in the air against KC. Keep an eye on the winds in this one. If it is north of 15mph, I will lessen my DFS shares.

Fantasy Goo: If the winds are not bad, Shep could get some looks as he should dominate KC's Steven Nelson. There are 84 starting cornerbacks in the NFL for Week #11. Nelson comes in at #80 according to PFF


11/17/17, 06:55 PM CST by PyromaniacMo

Source: www.nflweather.com


Tom Brady

New England Patriots

Brady a Top Bet for DFS Cash Games


The Patriots stayed in mile-high country last week in order to get acclimated to higher altitudes. The Raiders remained at sea level. This week they square off in Mexico City, which is much higher than one mile up. The difference could be seen in the 2nd half where the Raiders could run out of gas.

Fantasy Goo: Regardless of the elevation narrative, this game opened as the only 50 pointer this coming week. Football Outsiders ranks Oakland dead last for defensive DVOA, weighted defense, and overall pass ranking. Plus, Tom Brady is a great stack with Gronk against Oakland who is notoriously bad versus tight ends. Finally, New England will likely be missing Hogan, the recipient of 11 red zone targets this season. Gronk could easily be the beneficiary, as he has 13 himself.


11/17/17, 06:38 PM CST by PyromaniacMo

Source: www.footballoutsiders.com


Rob Gronkowski

New England Patriots

Brady a Top Bet for DFS Cash Games


The Patriots stayed in mile-high country last week in order to get acclimated to higher altitudes. The Raiders remained at sea level. This week they square off in Mexico City, which is much higher than one mile up. The difference could be seen in the 2nd half where the Raiders could run out of gas.

Fantasy Goo: Regardless of the elevation narrative, this game opened as the only 50 pointer this coming week. Football Outsiders ranks Oakland dead last for defensive DVOA, weighted defense, and overall pass ranking. Plus, Tom Brady is a great stack with Gronk against Oakland who is notoriously bad versus tight ends. Finally, New England will likely be missing Hogan, the recipient of 11 red zone targets this season. Gronk could easily be the beneficiary, as he has 13 himself.


11/17/17, 06:38 PM CST by PyromaniacMo

Source: www.footballoutsiders.com


Chris Hogan

New England Patriots

Brady a Top Bet for DFS Cash Games


The Patriots stayed in mile-high country last week in order to get acclimated to higher altitudes. The Raiders remained at sea level. This week they square off in Mexico City, which is much higher than one mile up. The difference could be seen in the 2nd half where the Raiders could run out of gas.

Fantasy Goo: Regardless of the elevation narrative, this game opened as the only 50 pointer this coming week. Football Outsiders ranks Oakland dead last for defensive DVOA, weighted defense, and overall pass ranking. Plus, Tom Brady is a great stack with Gronk against Oakland who is notoriously bad versus tight ends. Finally, New England will likely be missing Hogan, the recipient of 11 red zone targets this season. Gronk could easily be the beneficiary, as he has 13 himself.


11/17/17, 06:38 PM CST by PyromaniacMo

Source: www.footballoutsiders.com


Mike Evans

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

FanDuel Triple Play - Pass Go Collect 2TDS


This Sunday is "National Play Monopoly day." What does that mean for FD? Absolutely nothing, but I'm taking a "chance" and grabbing these 3 players that have a bit higher price tag because that's how I won at Monopoly.

Mike Evans @MIA - $7,800 - Much like AJ Green last week, I am banking on Evans to deliver his game of redemption and bounce back in a BIG way. Ryan Fitzpatrick will only have eyes for the 6'5 Evans as he once did for Brandon Marshall in NY. Evans will coast down A1A for 2TDS!

Travis Kelce @NYG - $7,500 - Kelce has 3TDs in the last 3 games. The Giants are giving up a TD every game to opposing TEs this season. That's crazy! Momma ain't raise no fool. 1+1= 2TDs!

Melvin Gordon vsBUF - $7,800 - The Bills gave up 50FPTS at home to the Saints dynamic duo of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara just last week, and now have to fly to LA. Gordon will stampede all over the Buffalo Bills. 2TDs in da house!


11/16/17, 12:43 AM CST by Pete Z

Source: www.pyromaniac.com


Travis Kelce

Kansas City Chiefs

FanDuel Triple Play - Pass Go Collect 2TDS


This Sunday is "National Play Monopoly day." What does that mean for FD? Absolutely nothing, but I'm taking a "chance" and grabbing these 3 players that have a bit higher price tag because that's how I won at Monopoly.

Mike Evans @MIA - $7,800 - Much like AJ Green last week, I am banking on Evans to deliver his game of redemption and bounce back in a BIG way. Ryan Fitzpatrick will only have eyes for the 6'5 Evans as he once did for Brandon Marshall in NY. Evans will coast down A1A for 2TDS!

Travis Kelce @NYG - $7,500 - Kelce has 3TDs in the last 3 games. The Giants are giving up a TD every game to opposing TEs this season. That's crazy! Momma ain't raise no fool. 1+1= 2TDs!

Melvin Gordon vsBUF - $7,800 - The Bills gave up 50FPTS at home to the Saints dynamic duo of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara just last week, and now have to fly to LA. Gordon will stampede all over the Buffalo Bills. 2TDs in da house!


11/16/17, 12:42 AM CST by Pete Z

Source: www.pyromaniac.com


Melvin Gordon

Los Angeles Chargers

FanDuel Triple Play - Pass Go Collect 2TDS


This Sunday is "National Play Monopoly day." What does that mean for FD? Absolutely nothing, but I'm taking a "chance" and grabbing these 3 players that have a bit higher price tag because that's how I won at Monopoly.

Mike Evans @MIA - $7,800 - Much like AJ Green last week, I am banking on Evans to deliver his game of redemption and bounce back in a BIG way. Ryan Fitzpatrick will only have eyes for the 6'5 Evans as he once did for Brandon Marshall in NY. Evans will coast down A1A for 2TDS!

Travis Kelce @NYG - $7,500 - Kelce has 3TDs in the last 3 games. The Giants are giving up a TD every game to opposing TEs this season. That's crazy! Momma ain't raise no fool. 1+1= 2TDs!

Melvin Gordon vsBUF - $7,800 - The Bills gave up 50FPTS at home to the Saints dynamic duo of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara just last week, and now have to fly to LA. Gordon will stampede all over the Buffalo Bills. 2TDs in da house!


11/15/17, 11:23 PM CST by Pete Z

Source: www.pyromaniac.com


Latavius Murray

Minnesota Vikings

Waiver Wire Pickup Target for Week 11


LATAVIUS MURRAY – RB – VIKINGS – AVAILABLE IN 34% OF CBS LEAGUES

He is still getting a lot of touches, and this week had 17 carries for 68 yards with a touchdown. Getting the redzone carries makes him a worthy add in deeper leagues.


11/14/17, 07:43 PM CST by Houdini

Source: www.pyromaniac.com


Garrett Celek

San Francisco 49ers

Waiver Wire Pickup Target for Week 11


GARRETT CELEK – TE – 49ERS – AVAILABLE IN 95% OF CBS LEAGUES

With George Kittle out of the game, Celek had four catches for 67 yards with a 47-yard touchdown. He is viable as long as Kittle is out.


11/14/17, 07:43 PM CST by Houdini

Source: www.pyromaniac.com


Jamison Crowder

Washington Redskins

Waiver Wire Pickup Target for Week 11


JAMISON CROWDER – WR – REDSKINS – AVAILABLE IN 61% OF CBS LEAGUES

Crowder came back to action and had four receptions for 76 yards and one run for five yards. He is finally starting to make an impact when healthy.


11/14/17, 07:41 PM CST by Houdini

Source: www.pyromaniac.com


Matt Breida

San Francisco 49ers

Waiver Wire Pickup Target for Week 11


MATT BREIDA – RB – 49ERS – AVAILABLE IN 95% OF CBS LEAUGES

Breida had himself a nice game this week, carrying the ball nine times for 55 yards with a touchdown and had one catch for three yards. The 49ers are looking to the future, and Breida will get more looks going forward.


11/14/17, 07:41 PM CST by Houdini

Source: www.pyromaniac.com


Case Keenum

Minnesota Vikings

Waiver Wire Pickup Target for Week 11


CASE KEENUM – QB – VIKINGS – AVAILABLE IN 73% OF CBS LEAGUES

Looking for a quarterback? Well, how about Keenum? He has the job and the weapons and is doing well. This week he completed 21 of 29 passes for 304 yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions. This is a first place team and they need him the rest of the way.


11/14/17, 07:39 PM CST by Houdini

Source: www.pyromaniac.com

Pyro pioneered the Targets, Touches and Looks piece back in 2010

2016 Year End Targets, Touches & Looks

Posted by d-Rx on 03/02/17

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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Targets, Touches & Looks for QBs

 

If you took the Top 10 quarterbacks from 2016 and ranked them by their Fantasy Points per Look (FP/Look), it would look like this:

 

#

Player

FP/Look

1

Matt Ryan

0.61

2

Aaron Rodgers

0.56

2

Dak Prescott

0.56

4

Marcus Mariota

0.51

5

Andrew Luck

0.50

5

Tyrod Taylor

0.50

7

Drew Brees

0.48

8

Kirk Cousins

0.47

9

Matthew Stafford

0.44

10

Andy Dalton

0.43

 

Now if you consider a baseline of 500 snaps, 30 QBs would qualify, and only 8 of these QBs registered at least 40 Looks per Game (Looks/G):

 

#

Player

Snaps

Looks/G

FP/Look

1

 Drew Brees

1151

43.50

0.48

2

 Joe Flacco

1111

43.44

0.34

3

 Blake Bortles

1111

42.69

0.38

4

 Aaron Rodgers

1066

42.31

0.56

5

 Carson Wentz

1127

40.81

0.32

6

 Carson Palmer

1045

40.80

0.39

7

 Andrew Luck

1013

40.60

0.50 

8

 Kirk Cousins

1063

40.00

0.47 

 

The average FP/Look among those 8 QBs was 0.43. Carson Palmer’s 0.39 FP/Look, Blake Bortles’ 0.38 FP/Look, Joe Flacco’s 0.34 FP/Look, and Carson Wentz’s 0.32 FP/Looks ranked in the bottom third among the 30 “eligible” QBs. On the other end of the 40+ Looks/G spectrum, Drew Brees led with 43.50 Looks/G; with Joe Flacco’s 43.44 very close behind. 


While Brees’ and Flacco’s Looks/G were very similar, their FP/Look output was not. 16 of the 30 QBs separated Brees (0.48 FP/Look) and Flacco (0.34 FP/Look). Brees didn’t dominate in that department, though. He ranked only 9th in FP/Look among the 30 QBs. At the top stood Aaron Rodgers’, Dak Prescott’s, and Tom Brady’s 0.56 FP/Look; but most notably, Matt Ryan’s 0.61 FP/Look. Rodgers stands out because he managed to achieve 0.56 FP/Look after accumulating 677 Looks; 108 more than the next guy (Matt Ryan)! Although, do not overlook that each of these 4 QBs ranked among the Top 5 in Comp % among the 30 QBs; each behind Sam Bradford’s 71.56 % (and his 0.39 FP/Look).


The most efficient or highest scoring QBs won’t always be the ones with the most looks, pass attempts, completions, yards, or even touchdowns. What stands out is that the most efficient and highest scoring QBs are those who can A) take snaps on the football field, and B) not throw interceptions. 7 of the Top 10 scoring QBs ranked in the bottom half of the 30 QBs who logged at least 500 snaps. For those 3 QBs who went a little interception-heavy, maintaining a 2:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio kind of helped.


Neat facts are fun, therefore:

9 of the Top 10 scoring QBs ranked in the Top 15 in rushing touchdowns among all QBs. The only QB that failed to score a rushing touchdown was the 2016 NFL MVP himself, Matt Ryan.

 

 

targets, touches & looks 2016 year end for QBs chart

Click here to enlarge chart

 

 

 

Targets, Touches & Looks for RBs

 

If you took the Top 10 running backs from standard scoring in 2016 and ranked them by their Fantasy Points per Look (FP/Look), it would look like this:

 

#

Player

FP/Look

1

LeSean McCoy

0.84

2

Ezekiel Elliott

0.81

3

David Johnson

0.79

3

Devonta Freeman

0.79

5

LeGarrette Blount

0.74

6

Mark Ingram

0.73

7

Le’Veon Bell

0.68

8

Jordan Howard

0.67

8

Melvin Gordon

0.67

10

DeMarco Murray

0.66

 

Now if you consider a baseline of 500 snaps, only 23 RBs would qualify, and just 8 of these RBs registered at least 20 looks per game (Looks/G):

 

#

Player

Snaps

Looks/G

FP/Look

1

LeVeon Bell

781

29.58

0.68

2

David Johnson

964

25.81

0.79

3

Ezekiel Elliott

716

24.13

0.81

4

Melvin Gordon

659

23.92

0.67

5

DeMarco Murray

861

22.50

0.66

6

Lamar Miller

623

21.93

0.52

7

Todd Gurley

742

21.00

0.46

8

Jordan Howard

654

20.13

0.67

 

The average FP/Look among those 8 RBs was 0.66, yet only 2 of them failed to meet the average. Lamar Miller’s 0.52 FP/Look and Todd Gurley’s 0.46 FP/Look ranked 20th and 22nd respectively among the 23 “qualified” RBs. On the other end of the 20+ Looks/G spectrum, Le’Veon Bell dominated with 29.58 Looks/G; 3.77 Looks more than David Johnson who finished second.


It was Johnson though who made the most use out of his looks; scoring 0.79 FP/Look to Bell’s 0.68. Johnson didn’t dominate in that department, though. He ranked 3rd in FP/Look among the 23 RBs, behind Ezekiel Elliott’s 0.81 and LeSean McCoy’s 0.84. McCoy stands out because he managed to lead in FP/Look after ranking only 13th in looks, 10th in looks per game, 9th in snaps, and 15th in looks per snap among the 23 RBs with over 500 snaps. Elliott, on the other hand, finished 2nd in FP/Look after finishing 2nd in looks, 3rd in looks per game, 5th in snaps, and 3rd in looks per snap among the same field.


One way or another, while a high volume of looks will generate attractive RB numbers, it’s not a sustainable approach. Picking out RBs, especially those receiving looks behind an above average offensive line, who will make the most use out of their looks to score points, will yield the greatest results.


Neat facts are fun, therefore:

36 RBs registered 150 or more looks in 2016, but only one these 36 managed to score at least 1 fantasy point per look. His name is Tevin Coleman.

 

targets, touches & looks 2016 year end for RBs chart

Click here to enlarge chart

 

 

 

Targets, Touches & Looks for WRs

 

If you took the Top 10 wide receivers from standard scoring in 2016 and ranked them by their Fantasy Points per Look (FP/Look), it would look like this:

 

#

Player

FP/Look

1

Davante Adams

1.40

2

Brandin Cooks

1.37

2

Jordy Nelson

1.37

2

Julio Jones

1.37

5

Michael Thomas

1.35

6

Antonio Brown

1.28

7

Doug Baldwin

1.21

8

Mike Evans

1.19

9

T.Y. Hilton

1.17

10

Odell Beckham Jr.

1.15

 

Now if you consider a baseline of 700 snaps, only 61 WRs would qualify, and nearly 25% of these WRs registered at least 9 looks per game (Looks/G):

 

#

Player

Snaps

Looks/G

FP/Look

1

 Julian Edelman

876

10.75

0.76

2

 Mike Evans

950

10.69

1.19

3

 Odell Beckham Jr.

1002

10.63

1.15

4

 Antonio Brown

975

10.47

1.28

5

 T.Y. Hilton

949

9.69

1.17

6

 Jordy Nelson

1015

9.50

1.37

7

 Larry Fitzgerald

1052

9.50

0.90

8

 DeAndre Hopkins

1085

9.44

0.79

9

 Allen Robinson

1047

9.38

0.83

10

 Terrelle Pryor

900

9.31

0.89

11

 Julio Jones

708

9.21

1.37

12

 Emmanuel Sanders

861

9.20

0.97

13

 Michael Crabtree

832

9.06

1.02

14

 Golden Tate

866

9.06

0.90

15

 Demaryius Thomas

882

9.00

0.93

 

The average FP/Look among those 15 WRs was 1.03, yet 60% of them failed to meet the average. Michael Crabtree’s 1.02 FP/Look, Emmanuel Sanders’ 0.97 FP/Look, Demaryius Thomas’ 0.93 FP/Look, Larry Fitzgerald’s 0.90 FP/Look, Golden Tate’s 0.90 FP/Look, Terrelle Pryor’s 0.89 FP/Look, Allen Robinson’s 0.82 FP/Look and DeAndre Hopkins’ 0.79 FP/Look were bottom 50% among the 61 “eligible” WRs. On the other end of the 9+ Look spectrum, Julian Edelman led with 10.75 looks per game; with Mike Evans’ 10.69, Odell Beckham Jr.’s 10.63 and Antonio Brown’s 10.47 close behind.


It was Brown though who made the most use out of his looks; scoring 1.28 FP/Look to Evans’ 1.19, Beckham Jr.’s 1.15, and Edelman’s 0.76. Brown didn’t dominate in that department, though. He ranked 6th in FP/Look among the 61 WRs; behind Michael Thomas’ 1.35, Jordy Nelson’s 1.37, Brandin Cooks’ 1.37, Julio Jones’ 1.37, and Davante Adams’ 1.40. Although Edelman led in Looks, Looks/G, Touches, and Looks/Snap, as well as finished Top 5 in Targets and Receptions among the 61 WRs, he finished only 55th among them in FP/Look. Adams, on the other hand, led in FP/Look after finishing only 24th in Looks, 25th in Looks/G, 21st in Targets, 21st in Receptions, 23rd in Touches, and 35th in Looks/Snap among the same field.


When deciphering looks from a wide receiver’s standpoint (most importantly in a standard scoring league), while a high volume of snaps, targets, and touches correlate to a talented fantasy WR, touchdowns are what carry them to the top. Seeking value from those WRs who acquire a high volume of snaps and looks with an above average number of targets in the red zone is going to provide you with weekly scoring consistency.


Neat facts are fun, therefore:

While DeAndre Hopkins and Allen Robinson finished 8th and 9th among all WRs in Looks, they finished 61st and 66th respectively in Catch % among WRs who accumulated 75 or more Looks. Moral of the story? If you want a high FP/Look, you must first catch the football.

 

targets, touches & looks 2016 year end for WRs chart

Click here to enlarge chart

 

 

Targets, Touches & Looks for TEs

 

If you took the Top 10 tight ends from standard scoring in 2016 and ranked them by their Fantasy Points per Target (FP/Tgt), it would look like this:

 

#

Player

FP/Tgt

1

Martellus Bennett

1.55

2

Cameron Brate

1.39

3

Jimmy Graham

1.31

4

Delanie Walker

1.21

5

Travis Kelce

1.16

6

Jordan Reed

1.15

7

Antonio Gates

1.02

8

Zach Ertz

1.00

9

Greg Olsen

0.97

10

Kyle Rudolph

0.95

 

Now if you consider a baseline of 700 snaps, only 19 TEs would qualify, and only 7 of these TEs registered at least 6 Targets per Game (Tgts/G):

 

#

Player

Snaps

Tgts/G

FP/Tgt

1

 Kyle Rudolph

969

8.25

0.95

2

 Greg Olsen

1033

8.06

0.97

3

 Zach Ertz

851

7.57

1.00

4

 Dennis Pitta

811

7.56

0.69

5

 Travis Kelce

888

7.31

1.16

6

 Delanie Walker

707

6.80

1.21

7

 Eric Ebron

708

6.54

0.98

 

The average FP/Tgt among those 6 TEs was 0.99. Dennis Pitta’s 0.69 FP/Tgt ranked dead last among the 19 “eligible” TEs. On the other end of the 6+ Tgts/G spectrum, Kyle Rudolph led with 8.25 Tgts/G; with Greg Olsen’s 8.06 and Zach Ertz’s 7.57 close behind.


The trio of Rudolph, Olsen, and Ertz made similar usage out of their targets; scoring 1.00 FP/Tgt, 0.97 FP/Tgt, and 0.95 FP/Tgt, respectively. It wasn’t any of these three TEs that dominated in the FP/Tgt department, though. Rudolph ranked 9th, Olsen ranked 11th, and Ertz ranked 12th among the 19 TEs. Travis Kelce’s 1.16 FP/Tgt, Delanie Walker’s 1.21 FP/Tgt, Jimmy Graham’s 1.31 FP/Tgt, Cameron Brate’s 1.39 FP/Tgt, and Martellus Bennett’s dominant 1.55 FP/Tgt were the cream of the crop.


Similar to wide receivers, when deciphering looks from a pass-catching tight end’s standpoint (most importantly in a standard scoring league), those tight ends who operate under a high volume of snaps and targets will obviously provide you with the most consistent weekly scoring output. Typically, though, if a TE posts a 1 reception for 1 yard and a touchdown line, he will provide you with a TE1 week.


Neat facts are fun, therefore:

While he was a Top 10 TE in scoring, Targets, and Tgts/G, Antonio Gates averaged only 39 snaps per game in his 15 games. In his 585 snaps, though, Gates finished 3rd among all TEs in Targets per Snap and led all TEs who registered at least 500 snaps. If anyone’s going to put up a fight against those writing him off and/or those asking him to step aside for a younger TE, it’s going to be Antonio Gates.

 

 

targets, touches & looks 2016 year end for TEs chart

Click here to enlarge chart

 

 

Charts by @PyroLytics & words by @WazNFL