Week 20
January 22, 2018
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Rex Burkhead

New England Patriots

Rex Back


Despite being listed as questionable for Sunday’s AFC Championship game vs. Jaguars, it appears as though Patriots’ RB Rex Burkhead will play.
This will cut into the 13 targets Amendola saw last week.


01/20/18, 10:49 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Adam Thielen

Minnesota Vikings

Making The Wright Move?


Adam Thielen (back) is questionable for Sunday's NFC Championship game against the Eagles.
He's fully expected to play after limited practices the last two days. He probably won’t be 100 percent so if you’re putting in a line-up you might want to pivot to Diggs or save some money and drop down to Jarius Wright who grabbed three-of-six targets for 56 yards Sunday and has established himself as the number three WR in this offense.


01/20/18, 10:31 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Leonard Fournette

Jacksonville Jaguars

Ankle In Question Again


Fournette aggravated his ankle in the Divisional Round and was limited early in the week. He was left off the injury report for Sunday's AFC Championship game. Fournette saw a heavy workload last week getting 27 touches in Jacksonville's upset of the Steelers. T.J. Yeldon rushed five times for 20 yards and a touchdown and caught 3-of-3 targets for 57 yards. If you’re looking for a cheaper option I expect we see Yeldon to be used to keep Fournette from aggravating the injury early.


01/20/18, 10:23 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Tom Brady

New England Patriots

Give Him A Hand


Reports are that Tom Brady threw the ball "incredibly well" during Friday's practice. He is listed as questionable for Sunday's AFC Championship game against Jacksonville, but I don’t think there was any real doubt that he’d play. Keep in mind what D-Rex spoke about on the Pyro Podcast 303 andScott Barrett tweeted about Brady last week:
Weeks 1-10: 21.2 fantasy points per game, 110.9 passer rating
Weeks 11-17: 14.2 fantasy points per game, 87.3 passer rating
The hand injury on top of his achilles injury, as well as going against the Jags #1 rated pass defense could keep the Patriots attack grounded this week. Lewis is the obvious play, but if Burkhead (Q) comes back it could be he or White that steals the show.


01/20/18, 10:22 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Tom Brady

New England Patriots

Tom Still Terrific?


Tom Brady was first listed on the team's injury report with an Achilles injury heading in to Week 11.
Weeks 1-10: 21.2 fantasy points per game, 110.9 passer rating
Weeks 11-17: 14.2 fantasy points per game, 87.3 passer rating

Fantasy Goo: This should line up for a good week for Brady, Tennessee is 8th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, but just below average against QB’s. The Patriots are 13 point favorites on Saturday Night, if Brady doesn’t do it at home in prime-time then something is wrong.


01/09/18, 07:30 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alvin Kamara

New Orleans Saints

Primary Role Shifting


Saints have run 5 times at/inside opponent's 5-yard line over last 4 weeks (including playoffs):
Alvin Kamara 3 carries, Zach Line 1, Mark Ingram 1. Kamara was in on all 3 Saints run plays at/inside 5 vs. Panthers last week, including Line's 1-yard TD run.

Fantasy Goo: If you’re trying to decide between Kamara and Ingram for the playoff run, Kamara looks to be the much better play.


01/09/18, 07:20 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jay Ajayi

Philadelphia Eagles

It's A Trap


Jay Ajayi (knee) is practicing in full for the Divisional Round.

Fantasy Goo: Atlanta is 5th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s this year and they are more susceptible to pass-catching backs. Todd Gurley rushed 14 times for 101 yards in the Rams' Wild Card loss to the Falcons, adding four receptions for 10 additional yards. Ajayi might have been drafted before Gurley this year, but that was clearly a mistake. Ajayi has talent, but he’s far from a good option this week.


01/09/18, 07:16 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Chris Hogan

New England Patriots

Back in Action


Chris Hogan (shoulder) is expected to return for Saturday's Divisional Round game against the Titans.

Fantasy Goo: He’s going to take a couple of weeks to get in tune with the offense, I’m looking to save him until the Super Bowl if you’re in one of those one and done fantasy playoff tournaments.


01/09/18, 07:14 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Drew Brees

New Orleans Saints

Strength vs Strength


Saints RBs led NFL during regular season in receptions (9.0) and receiving yards (77.8) per game.
Vikings held opposing RBs to fewest yards per target (4.2) and 3rd-fewest yards per game (30.6).

Fantasy Goo: The Vikings have been absolutely sick in all aspects on defense this year. If the Saints are going to pull this one out it sounds like it’s going to have to be a Brees week, I’m not so sure he’s going to be the guy you want to start on the road this week.


01/09/18, 07:12 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


LeSean McCoy

Buffalo Bills

Not The Real McCoy


LeSean McCoy said if he plays Sunday, "I want to be able to cut well enough to where I don't have a lot of pain cutting. I just want to be close, or the best as far as 100 percent as I can get. The type of game like this, you got to lay it all on the line.”

Fantasy Goo: McCoy is a poor play against the Jags this week. The Jags strength on defense is against the pass (#1 in FP allowed), but they are still strong against the rush (11th). I’m not taking any Bills on fantasy playoff squads or in DFS this week.


01/04/18, 09:29 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Derrick Henry

Tennessee Titans

Arrow Pointing Down


DeMarco Murray (knee) didn't practice again Thursday. Derrick Henry show ready to go.

Fantasy Goo: The way to attack KC is through the air, they rank 9th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s. They will most likely be in negative game script. KC hasn’t allowed any team to score over 20 points in Arrowhead all year.


01/04/18, 09:27 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Julio Jones

Atlanta Falcons

No Fly Zone


Julio Jones finished 11th in NFL in red-zone targets but caught only 5 of 19. He finished 4th in targets inside 10 but only caught 4 of 11.

Fantasy Goo: The Rams have a strong pass defense, especially against outside receivers, but are second worst in fantasy points allowed to RB’s. Freeman and Coleman are the only Falcons I am considering this week.


01/04/18, 09:25 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Kenny Golladay

Detroit Lions

Under the Radar


In the first game with TJ Jones (shoulder) on IR last week, Kenny Golladay played 95% of snaps and led DET WRs with 8 targets.

Fantasy Goo: Marvin Jones has a history of shredding the Packers defense and is a solid play at $6500 on DK, but Golladay is half the price ($3300) and will probably see a similar number of targets. If Detroit had something to play for I’d be stacking the heck out of this game, but I still think it’s smart to have one of these guys in the line-up this week.


12/31/17, 09:46 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Patrick Mahomes

Kansas City Chiefs

Rookie Debut


Patrick Mahomes was 2nd in PFF’s QB Rating when kept clean in preseason. He rushed for 744 yards, 22 TDs in his last two years at Texas Tech. Denver has allowed multiple passing TDs to six-straight QBs not named Petty or Brissett.

Fantasy Goo: The rookie was supposed to take over for Alex Smith much earlier this season, but Smith and the Chief’s came out firing on all cylinders and kept the rookie on the bench. Mahomes will get his chance this week as Smith gets a week off before the playoffs. Denver may be packing it in, but they still have one of the best defenses and I expect they will play more inspired this week against a division rival.


12/31/17, 09:32 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Wayne Gallman

New York Giants

Last Man Standing


Giants will be without Shepard (neck), Engram (ribs), and King (concussion) vs. WAS. Wayne Gallman has 9, 7, 8 target counts in last three weeks.

Fantasy Goo: Washington ranks 24th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s and Gallman is $4200 on DK. Feels like a great way to save and pay up at other positions.


12/31/17, 09:21 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alex Collins

Baltimore Ravens

Burfict Situation


Bengals LB Vontaze Burfict ruled out for game Sunday at Baltimore because of shoulder injury.

Fantasy Goo: Collins becomes a solid RB1 this week. Cincinnati’s run defense is a sieve with Burfict out.


12/31/17, 09:19 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Akeem Hunt

Houston Texans

Akeem No Dream


Charcandrick West is out Sunday vs Denver with an illness. Akeem Hunt and Kareem Hunt only RBs on active roster for KC. It would be a surprise to see Kareem play much. That means a ton of Akeem Hunt and likely some De'Anthony Thomas on passing downs.

Fantasy Goo: Akeem is min price ($3000) on DK so the definition of a free-square, but there’s a reason he’s bounced around the NFL and never earned a starting role. Denver is 5th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, I’m not rostering Akeem when there are so many other options this week.


12/31/17, 09:17 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


DeAndre Hopkins

Houston Texans

Milestone Not Worth The Risk


Bill O'Brien on DeAndre Hopkins' status: 'Probably won't know up until game time'. Typically, we might classify this as coach-speak, but Hopkins has never missed a game, and is four catches away from 100 for the season. He's probably pushing hard to play.

Fantasy Goo: This is an awesome match-up for the Houston WR’s going against a very weak Indy pass defense, but there is really no reason for Hopkins to play, especially with the calf injury. At $8400 on DK he’s just way too pricey given this news. A sneaky start might be Will Fuller at $4300, he has 5 targets in each of the past three games and is coming off some difficult match-ups. Earlier in the season he was a superstar with Watson throwing the ball, but he has always had the big play in his arsenal no matter who the QB is.


12/29/17, 10:03 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Dion Lewis

New England Patriots

Vultures Are Always Flying


James White (ankle) remained limited at Thursday's practice. White was absent for last week's win over Buffalo but should be out there against the Jets in Week 17. He ranks eighth among running backs with 56 catches this year.

Fantasy Goo: Lewis dominated last week with White and Burkhead out, even though Gillislee vultured a TD. I would imagine that White playing will take away the five receptions Lewis had last week and the Jets actually have a better rush defense than the Pats week 16 opponent (Buf). The Pats will be looking to lock-up home field advantage and won’t be resting their starters, but they will probably be looking to get everyone some work as they prep for the playoffs. Gillislee appears to be nursing a hammy and is not expected to play, but let’s not forget how White performed last year in the Super Bowl.


12/29/17, 09:47 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

Pittsburgh Steelers

Stars Sitting


The Steelers Marcus Gilbert tells reporter Tim Benz that the Steelers won't play Ben Roethlisberger or Le'Veon Bell in finale vs. Cleveland. Landry Jones will be under center for Pittsburgh and Fitzgerald Toussaint and Stevan Ridley will form a thoroughly underwhelming RB committee against the Browns.

Fantasy Goo: Underwhelming is an understatement for these two backs, a highly respected fantasy website hasn’t even updated the news on these two since the pre-season and doesn’t even recognize them as being on the team. The one player of note in this is Martavis Bryant, The Alien averages over 17 ppr points per game with Landry at the helm as opposed to 8.4 ppg with other QB’s. He also has 5 TD’s in 5 home games with Landry. Granted most of this production comes from 2015 when they worked together often in the preseason, but Bryant could be a very sneaky GPP play this week.


12/29/17, 09:23 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Pyro pioneered the Targets, Touches and Looks piece back in 2010

2016 Year End Targets, Touches & Looks

Posted by d-Rx on 03/02/17

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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Targets, Touches & Looks for QBs

 

If you took the Top 10 quarterbacks from 2016 and ranked them by their Fantasy Points per Look (FP/Look), it would look like this:

 

#

Player

FP/Look

1

Matt Ryan

0.61

2

Aaron Rodgers

0.56

2

Dak Prescott

0.56

4

Marcus Mariota

0.51

5

Andrew Luck

0.50

5

Tyrod Taylor

0.50

7

Drew Brees

0.48

8

Kirk Cousins

0.47

9

Matthew Stafford

0.44

10

Andy Dalton

0.43

 

Now if you consider a baseline of 500 snaps, 30 QBs would qualify, and only 8 of these QBs registered at least 40 Looks per Game (Looks/G):

 

#

Player

Snaps

Looks/G

FP/Look

1

 Drew Brees

1151

43.50

0.48

2

 Joe Flacco

1111

43.44

0.34

3

 Blake Bortles

1111

42.69

0.38

4

 Aaron Rodgers

1066

42.31

0.56

5

 Carson Wentz

1127

40.81

0.32

6

 Carson Palmer

1045

40.80

0.39

7

 Andrew Luck

1013

40.60

0.50 

8

 Kirk Cousins

1063

40.00

0.47 

 

The average FP/Look among those 8 QBs was 0.43. Carson Palmer’s 0.39 FP/Look, Blake Bortles’ 0.38 FP/Look, Joe Flacco’s 0.34 FP/Look, and Carson Wentz’s 0.32 FP/Looks ranked in the bottom third among the 30 “eligible” QBs. On the other end of the 40+ Looks/G spectrum, Drew Brees led with 43.50 Looks/G; with Joe Flacco’s 43.44 very close behind. 


While Brees’ and Flacco’s Looks/G were very similar, their FP/Look output was not. 16 of the 30 QBs separated Brees (0.48 FP/Look) and Flacco (0.34 FP/Look). Brees didn’t dominate in that department, though. He ranked only 9th in FP/Look among the 30 QBs. At the top stood Aaron Rodgers’, Dak Prescott’s, and Tom Brady’s 0.56 FP/Look; but most notably, Matt Ryan’s 0.61 FP/Look. Rodgers stands out because he managed to achieve 0.56 FP/Look after accumulating 677 Looks; 108 more than the next guy (Matt Ryan)! Although, do not overlook that each of these 4 QBs ranked among the Top 5 in Comp % among the 30 QBs; each behind Sam Bradford’s 71.56 % (and his 0.39 FP/Look).


The most efficient or highest scoring QBs won’t always be the ones with the most looks, pass attempts, completions, yards, or even touchdowns. What stands out is that the most efficient and highest scoring QBs are those who can A) take snaps on the football field, and B) not throw interceptions. 7 of the Top 10 scoring QBs ranked in the bottom half of the 30 QBs who logged at least 500 snaps. For those 3 QBs who went a little interception-heavy, maintaining a 2:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio kind of helped.


Neat facts are fun, therefore:

9 of the Top 10 scoring QBs ranked in the Top 15 in rushing touchdowns among all QBs. The only QB that failed to score a rushing touchdown was the 2016 NFL MVP himself, Matt Ryan.

 

 

targets, touches & looks 2016 year end for QBs chart

Click here to enlarge chart

 

 

 

Targets, Touches & Looks for RBs

 

If you took the Top 10 running backs from standard scoring in 2016 and ranked them by their Fantasy Points per Look (FP/Look), it would look like this:

 

#

Player

FP/Look

1

LeSean McCoy

0.84

2

Ezekiel Elliott

0.81

3

David Johnson

0.79

3

Devonta Freeman

0.79

5

LeGarrette Blount

0.74

6

Mark Ingram

0.73

7

Le’Veon Bell

0.68

8

Jordan Howard

0.67

8

Melvin Gordon

0.67

10

DeMarco Murray

0.66

 

Now if you consider a baseline of 500 snaps, only 23 RBs would qualify, and just 8 of these RBs registered at least 20 looks per game (Looks/G):

 

#

Player

Snaps

Looks/G

FP/Look

1

LeVeon Bell

781

29.58

0.68

2

David Johnson

964

25.81

0.79

3

Ezekiel Elliott

716

24.13

0.81

4

Melvin Gordon

659

23.92

0.67

5

DeMarco Murray

861

22.50

0.66

6

Lamar Miller

623

21.93

0.52

7

Todd Gurley

742

21.00

0.46

8

Jordan Howard

654

20.13

0.67

 

The average FP/Look among those 8 RBs was 0.66, yet only 2 of them failed to meet the average. Lamar Miller’s 0.52 FP/Look and Todd Gurley’s 0.46 FP/Look ranked 20th and 22nd respectively among the 23 “qualified” RBs. On the other end of the 20+ Looks/G spectrum, Le’Veon Bell dominated with 29.58 Looks/G; 3.77 Looks more than David Johnson who finished second.


It was Johnson though who made the most use out of his looks; scoring 0.79 FP/Look to Bell’s 0.68. Johnson didn’t dominate in that department, though. He ranked 3rd in FP/Look among the 23 RBs, behind Ezekiel Elliott’s 0.81 and LeSean McCoy’s 0.84. McCoy stands out because he managed to lead in FP/Look after ranking only 13th in looks, 10th in looks per game, 9th in snaps, and 15th in looks per snap among the 23 RBs with over 500 snaps. Elliott, on the other hand, finished 2nd in FP/Look after finishing 2nd in looks, 3rd in looks per game, 5th in snaps, and 3rd in looks per snap among the same field.


One way or another, while a high volume of looks will generate attractive RB numbers, it’s not a sustainable approach. Picking out RBs, especially those receiving looks behind an above average offensive line, who will make the most use out of their looks to score points, will yield the greatest results.


Neat facts are fun, therefore:

36 RBs registered 150 or more looks in 2016, but only one these 36 managed to score at least 1 fantasy point per look. His name is Tevin Coleman.

 

targets, touches & looks 2016 year end for RBs chart

Click here to enlarge chart

 

 

 

Targets, Touches & Looks for WRs

 

If you took the Top 10 wide receivers from standard scoring in 2016 and ranked them by their Fantasy Points per Look (FP/Look), it would look like this:

 

#

Player

FP/Look

1

Davante Adams

1.40

2

Brandin Cooks

1.37

2

Jordy Nelson

1.37

2

Julio Jones

1.37

5

Michael Thomas

1.35

6

Antonio Brown

1.28

7

Doug Baldwin

1.21

8

Mike Evans

1.19

9

T.Y. Hilton

1.17

10

Odell Beckham Jr.

1.15

 

Now if you consider a baseline of 700 snaps, only 61 WRs would qualify, and nearly 25% of these WRs registered at least 9 looks per game (Looks/G):

 

#

Player

Snaps

Looks/G

FP/Look

1

 Julian Edelman

876

10.75

0.76

2

 Mike Evans

950

10.69

1.19

3

 Odell Beckham Jr.

1002

10.63

1.15

4

 Antonio Brown

975

10.47

1.28

5

 T.Y. Hilton

949

9.69

1.17

6

 Jordy Nelson

1015

9.50

1.37

7

 Larry Fitzgerald

1052

9.50

0.90

8

 DeAndre Hopkins

1085

9.44

0.79

9

 Allen Robinson

1047

9.38

0.83

10

 Terrelle Pryor

900

9.31

0.89

11

 Julio Jones

708

9.21

1.37

12

 Emmanuel Sanders

861

9.20

0.97

13

 Michael Crabtree

832

9.06

1.02

14

 Golden Tate

866

9.06

0.90

15

 Demaryius Thomas

882

9.00

0.93

 

The average FP/Look among those 15 WRs was 1.03, yet 60% of them failed to meet the average. Michael Crabtree’s 1.02 FP/Look, Emmanuel Sanders’ 0.97 FP/Look, Demaryius Thomas’ 0.93 FP/Look, Larry Fitzgerald’s 0.90 FP/Look, Golden Tate’s 0.90 FP/Look, Terrelle Pryor’s 0.89 FP/Look, Allen Robinson’s 0.82 FP/Look and DeAndre Hopkins’ 0.79 FP/Look were bottom 50% among the 61 “eligible” WRs. On the other end of the 9+ Look spectrum, Julian Edelman led with 10.75 looks per game; with Mike Evans’ 10.69, Odell Beckham Jr.’s 10.63 and Antonio Brown’s 10.47 close behind.


It was Brown though who made the most use out of his looks; scoring 1.28 FP/Look to Evans’ 1.19, Beckham Jr.’s 1.15, and Edelman’s 0.76. Brown didn’t dominate in that department, though. He ranked 6th in FP/Look among the 61 WRs; behind Michael Thomas’ 1.35, Jordy Nelson’s 1.37, Brandin Cooks’ 1.37, Julio Jones’ 1.37, and Davante Adams’ 1.40. Although Edelman led in Looks, Looks/G, Touches, and Looks/Snap, as well as finished Top 5 in Targets and Receptions among the 61 WRs, he finished only 55th among them in FP/Look. Adams, on the other hand, led in FP/Look after finishing only 24th in Looks, 25th in Looks/G, 21st in Targets, 21st in Receptions, 23rd in Touches, and 35th in Looks/Snap among the same field.


When deciphering looks from a wide receiver’s standpoint (most importantly in a standard scoring league), while a high volume of snaps, targets, and touches correlate to a talented fantasy WR, touchdowns are what carry them to the top. Seeking value from those WRs who acquire a high volume of snaps and looks with an above average number of targets in the red zone is going to provide you with weekly scoring consistency.


Neat facts are fun, therefore:

While DeAndre Hopkins and Allen Robinson finished 8th and 9th among all WRs in Looks, they finished 61st and 66th respectively in Catch % among WRs who accumulated 75 or more Looks. Moral of the story? If you want a high FP/Look, you must first catch the football.

 

targets, touches & looks 2016 year end for WRs chart

Click here to enlarge chart

 

 

Targets, Touches & Looks for TEs

 

If you took the Top 10 tight ends from standard scoring in 2016 and ranked them by their Fantasy Points per Target (FP/Tgt), it would look like this:

 

#

Player

FP/Tgt

1

Martellus Bennett

1.55

2

Cameron Brate

1.39

3

Jimmy Graham

1.31

4

Delanie Walker

1.21

5

Travis Kelce

1.16

6

Jordan Reed

1.15

7

Antonio Gates

1.02

8

Zach Ertz

1.00

9

Greg Olsen

0.97

10

Kyle Rudolph

0.95

 

Now if you consider a baseline of 700 snaps, only 19 TEs would qualify, and only 7 of these TEs registered at least 6 Targets per Game (Tgts/G):

 

#

Player

Snaps

Tgts/G

FP/Tgt

1

 Kyle Rudolph

969

8.25

0.95

2

 Greg Olsen

1033

8.06

0.97

3

 Zach Ertz

851

7.57

1.00

4

 Dennis Pitta

811

7.56

0.69

5

 Travis Kelce

888

7.31

1.16

6

 Delanie Walker

707

6.80

1.21

7

 Eric Ebron

708

6.54

0.98

 

The average FP/Tgt among those 6 TEs was 0.99. Dennis Pitta’s 0.69 FP/Tgt ranked dead last among the 19 “eligible” TEs. On the other end of the 6+ Tgts/G spectrum, Kyle Rudolph led with 8.25 Tgts/G; with Greg Olsen’s 8.06 and Zach Ertz’s 7.57 close behind.


The trio of Rudolph, Olsen, and Ertz made similar usage out of their targets; scoring 1.00 FP/Tgt, 0.97 FP/Tgt, and 0.95 FP/Tgt, respectively. It wasn’t any of these three TEs that dominated in the FP/Tgt department, though. Rudolph ranked 9th, Olsen ranked 11th, and Ertz ranked 12th among the 19 TEs. Travis Kelce’s 1.16 FP/Tgt, Delanie Walker’s 1.21 FP/Tgt, Jimmy Graham’s 1.31 FP/Tgt, Cameron Brate’s 1.39 FP/Tgt, and Martellus Bennett’s dominant 1.55 FP/Tgt were the cream of the crop.


Similar to wide receivers, when deciphering looks from a pass-catching tight end’s standpoint (most importantly in a standard scoring league), those tight ends who operate under a high volume of snaps and targets will obviously provide you with the most consistent weekly scoring output. Typically, though, if a TE posts a 1 reception for 1 yard and a touchdown line, he will provide you with a TE1 week.


Neat facts are fun, therefore:

While he was a Top 10 TE in scoring, Targets, and Tgts/G, Antonio Gates averaged only 39 snaps per game in his 15 games. In his 585 snaps, though, Gates finished 3rd among all TEs in Targets per Snap and led all TEs who registered at least 500 snaps. If anyone’s going to put up a fight against those writing him off and/or those asking him to step aside for a younger TE, it’s going to be Antonio Gates.

 

 

targets, touches & looks 2016 year end for TEs chart

Click here to enlarge chart

 

 

Charts by @PyroLytics & words by @WazNFL