Week 20
January 20, 2018
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Tom Brady

New England Patriots

Tom Still Terrific?


Tom Brady was first listed on the team's injury report with an Achilles injury heading in to Week 11.
Weeks 1-10: 21.2 fantasy points per game, 110.9 passer rating
Weeks 11-17: 14.2 fantasy points per game, 87.3 passer rating

Fantasy Goo: This should line up for a good week for Brady, Tennessee is 8th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, but just below average against QB’s. The Patriots are 13 point favorites on Saturday Night, if Brady doesn’t do it at home in prime-time then something is wrong.


01/09/18, 07:30 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alvin Kamara

New Orleans Saints

Primary Role Shifting


Saints have run 5 times at/inside opponent's 5-yard line over last 4 weeks (including playoffs):
Alvin Kamara 3 carries, Zach Line 1, Mark Ingram 1. Kamara was in on all 3 Saints run plays at/inside 5 vs. Panthers last week, including Line's 1-yard TD run.

Fantasy Goo: If you’re trying to decide between Kamara and Ingram for the playoff run, Kamara looks to be the much better play.


01/09/18, 07:20 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jay Ajayi

Philadelphia Eagles

It's A Trap


Jay Ajayi (knee) is practicing in full for the Divisional Round.

Fantasy Goo: Atlanta is 5th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s this year and they are more susceptible to pass-catching backs. Todd Gurley rushed 14 times for 101 yards in the Rams' Wild Card loss to the Falcons, adding four receptions for 10 additional yards. Ajayi might have been drafted before Gurley this year, but that was clearly a mistake. Ajayi has talent, but he’s far from a good option this week.


01/09/18, 07:16 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Chris Hogan

New England Patriots

Back in Action


Chris Hogan (shoulder) is expected to return for Saturday's Divisional Round game against the Titans.

Fantasy Goo: He’s going to take a couple of weeks to get in tune with the offense, I’m looking to save him until the Super Bowl if you’re in one of those one and done fantasy playoff tournaments.


01/09/18, 07:14 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Drew Brees

New Orleans Saints

Strength vs Strength


Saints RBs led NFL during regular season in receptions (9.0) and receiving yards (77.8) per game.
Vikings held opposing RBs to fewest yards per target (4.2) and 3rd-fewest yards per game (30.6).

Fantasy Goo: The Vikings have been absolutely sick in all aspects on defense this year. If the Saints are going to pull this one out it sounds like it’s going to have to be a Brees week, I’m not so sure he’s going to be the guy you want to start on the road this week.


01/09/18, 07:12 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


LeSean McCoy

Buffalo Bills

Not The Real McCoy


LeSean McCoy said if he plays Sunday, "I want to be able to cut well enough to where I don't have a lot of pain cutting. I just want to be close, or the best as far as 100 percent as I can get. The type of game like this, you got to lay it all on the line.”

Fantasy Goo: McCoy is a poor play against the Jags this week. The Jags strength on defense is against the pass (#1 in FP allowed), but they are still strong against the rush (11th). I’m not taking any Bills on fantasy playoff squads or in DFS this week.


01/04/18, 09:29 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Derrick Henry

Tennessee Titans

Arrow Pointing Down


DeMarco Murray (knee) didn't practice again Thursday. Derrick Henry show ready to go.

Fantasy Goo: The way to attack KC is through the air, they rank 9th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s. They will most likely be in negative game script. KC hasn’t allowed any team to score over 20 points in Arrowhead all year.


01/04/18, 09:27 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Julio Jones

Atlanta Falcons

No Fly Zone


Julio Jones finished 11th in NFL in red-zone targets but caught only 5 of 19. He finished 4th in targets inside 10 but only caught 4 of 11.

Fantasy Goo: The Rams have a strong pass defense, especially against outside receivers, but are second worst in fantasy points allowed to RB’s. Freeman and Coleman are the only Falcons I am considering this week.


01/04/18, 09:25 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Kenny Golladay

Detroit Lions

Under the Radar


In the first game with TJ Jones (shoulder) on IR last week, Kenny Golladay played 95% of snaps and led DET WRs with 8 targets.

Fantasy Goo: Marvin Jones has a history of shredding the Packers defense and is a solid play at $6500 on DK, but Golladay is half the price ($3300) and will probably see a similar number of targets. If Detroit had something to play for I’d be stacking the heck out of this game, but I still think it’s smart to have one of these guys in the line-up this week.


12/31/17, 09:46 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Patrick Mahomes

Kansas City Chiefs

Rookie Debut


Patrick Mahomes was 2nd in PFF’s QB Rating when kept clean in preseason. He rushed for 744 yards, 22 TDs in his last two years at Texas Tech. Denver has allowed multiple passing TDs to six-straight QBs not named Petty or Brissett.

Fantasy Goo: The rookie was supposed to take over for Alex Smith much earlier this season, but Smith and the Chief’s came out firing on all cylinders and kept the rookie on the bench. Mahomes will get his chance this week as Smith gets a week off before the playoffs. Denver may be packing it in, but they still have one of the best defenses and I expect they will play more inspired this week against a division rival.


12/31/17, 09:32 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Wayne Gallman

New York Giants

Last Man Standing


Giants will be without Shepard (neck), Engram (ribs), and King (concussion) vs. WAS. Wayne Gallman has 9, 7, 8 target counts in last three weeks.

Fantasy Goo: Washington ranks 24th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s and Gallman is $4200 on DK. Feels like a great way to save and pay up at other positions.


12/31/17, 09:21 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alex Collins

Baltimore Ravens

Burfict Situation


Bengals LB Vontaze Burfict ruled out for game Sunday at Baltimore because of shoulder injury.

Fantasy Goo: Collins becomes a solid RB1 this week. Cincinnati’s run defense is a sieve with Burfict out.


12/31/17, 09:19 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Akeem Hunt

Houston Texans

Akeem No Dream


Charcandrick West is out Sunday vs Denver with an illness. Akeem Hunt and Kareem Hunt only RBs on active roster for KC. It would be a surprise to see Kareem play much. That means a ton of Akeem Hunt and likely some De'Anthony Thomas on passing downs.

Fantasy Goo: Akeem is min price ($3000) on DK so the definition of a free-square, but there’s a reason he’s bounced around the NFL and never earned a starting role. Denver is 5th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, I’m not rostering Akeem when there are so many other options this week.


12/31/17, 09:17 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


DeAndre Hopkins

Houston Texans

Milestone Not Worth The Risk


Bill O'Brien on DeAndre Hopkins' status: 'Probably won't know up until game time'. Typically, we might classify this as coach-speak, but Hopkins has never missed a game, and is four catches away from 100 for the season. He's probably pushing hard to play.

Fantasy Goo: This is an awesome match-up for the Houston WR’s going against a very weak Indy pass defense, but there is really no reason for Hopkins to play, especially with the calf injury. At $8400 on DK he’s just way too pricey given this news. A sneaky start might be Will Fuller at $4300, he has 5 targets in each of the past three games and is coming off some difficult match-ups. Earlier in the season he was a superstar with Watson throwing the ball, but he has always had the big play in his arsenal no matter who the QB is.


12/29/17, 10:03 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Dion Lewis

New England Patriots

Vultures Are Always Flying


James White (ankle) remained limited at Thursday's practice. White was absent for last week's win over Buffalo but should be out there against the Jets in Week 17. He ranks eighth among running backs with 56 catches this year.

Fantasy Goo: Lewis dominated last week with White and Burkhead out, even though Gillislee vultured a TD. I would imagine that White playing will take away the five receptions Lewis had last week and the Jets actually have a better rush defense than the Pats week 16 opponent (Buf). The Pats will be looking to lock-up home field advantage and won’t be resting their starters, but they will probably be looking to get everyone some work as they prep for the playoffs. Gillislee appears to be nursing a hammy and is not expected to play, but let’s not forget how White performed last year in the Super Bowl.


12/29/17, 09:47 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

Pittsburgh Steelers

Stars Sitting


The Steelers Marcus Gilbert tells reporter Tim Benz that the Steelers won't play Ben Roethlisberger or Le'Veon Bell in finale vs. Cleveland. Landry Jones will be under center for Pittsburgh and Fitzgerald Toussaint and Stevan Ridley will form a thoroughly underwhelming RB committee against the Browns.

Fantasy Goo: Underwhelming is an understatement for these two backs, a highly respected fantasy website hasn’t even updated the news on these two since the pre-season and doesn’t even recognize them as being on the team. The one player of note in this is Martavis Bryant, The Alien averages over 17 ppr points per game with Landry at the helm as opposed to 8.4 ppg with other QB’s. He also has 5 TD’s in 5 home games with Landry. Granted most of this production comes from 2015 when they worked together often in the preseason, but Bryant could be a very sneaky GPP play this week.


12/29/17, 09:23 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Jacksonville Jaguars

Play To Win The Game


Despite already being locked into the AFC's No. 3 seed, Jaguars coach Doug Marrone has no plans to rest starters in Sunday's game against the Titans. "Make no mistake about it, just so there is not a lot of talk during the week: When the players come in (Wednesday), we are talking about how we are going to play to win and do everything we possibly can to win this game, period," Marrone said. "I am not even thinking about what happens beyond that, and that is the way we are going to go about our business this week."

Fantasy Goo: I think it’s crazy of him to do, but I’m sure he has Tom Coughlin in his ear feeding him that old-school philosophy. Looks like Bortles, Fournette, Westbrook and Cole will be safe plays against a Titan’s team hoping to hold on to the sixth seed in the AFC.


12/26/17, 10:00 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

Los Angeles Rams

Resting Starters


McVay hints that there will be Rams starters “who won’t play at all” on Sunday. The Rams are already locked into either the No. 3 or 4 seed in the NFC and will host a Wild Card round playoff game.

Fantasy Goo: Gurley, Goff, Woods, all sitting this week? That’s going to destroy so many hopes and dreams for teams that rode Gurley all year.


12/26/17, 09:58 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


DeMarco Murray

Tennessee Titans

Grind It Out


Mike Mularkey said he's not ruling DeMarco Murray out just yet. He's day-to-day. The Titans are holding out hope to have him in limited role.

Fantasy Goo: They are really grinding him into the dirt if they play him this week. I didn’t see the injury, but it sounded pretty ugly from sources in the know. Keep away from him in whatever format you are playing this week, I’m giving Derick Henry a solid upgrade as the Titans are trying to hold on to the final playoff spot in the AFC.


12/26/17, 05:17 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Philadelphia Eagles

All Locked Up


Pederson on playing Foles vs. Cowboys: “I’ve got to get him as many reps as he can and then be smart about it. Obviously, we have a lot of football left. Our season is really just beginning, quite honestly. We’ll be smart.”

Fantasy Goo: This is why you don’t play a championship game in week 17. I’m staying away from the Eagles regular starters, pretty much across the board, as they have a first round bye all locked up. Guys like Blount, Clement, and Nelson Agholor might have some DFS appeal, but we have to get closer to Sunday to see what they plan on doing.


12/26/17, 05:15 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons will have a hard to repeating the amazing offensive attack they had in 2016 this upcoming season

Career Year Beware! by Houdini

Posted by d-Rx on 06/20/17

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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Every year when the fantasy drafts come around there are players that get way over drafted because the owners that pick them expect them to produce the same or better results than they did last year, but these players are coming off a career year and you should expect the opposite. These happen year after year, and the results are almost always the same, so if you are thinking of drafting one of these players, beware of the career year!!!

 


MATT RYAN

 

Matt Ryan is the poster child for Career Year Beware in 2017. Ryan is coming off career highs in yards (4,944), touchdowns (38) and a career low in interceptions (7). Matty Ice has been pretty consistent with six years in a row with more than 4,000 passing yards, but a look inside the numbers will tell you to beware of counting on a repeat. The Falcons have a dynamic offense with weapons all over the field, and that translated into a career high of 17 pass plays for 40 or more yards in 2016. He also completed seven pass plays of 50 or more yards with three of them going for touchdowns (64,75 & 76 yards). Ryan also had 11 touchdowns in 2016 that went for 30 or more yards. Let’s put this into context with his numbers from the year before. In 2015 Ryan only had nine plays of 40 or more yards compared to the 17 he threw in 2016. In fact Matt threw for a total of 17 plays over 40 or more yards in 2014 and 2015 combined. His seven plays of 50 or more yards is one more than he completed in 2014 and 2015 combined. His 11 touchdowns of 30 or more yards in 2016 were two more than he threw in 2014 and 2015 combined. There is no doubt that the Falcons have an amazing offense and Ryan is going to put up good numbers this year, but to think that he is going to repeat something that he has not previously done in his nine years in the league, is foolish. Ryan is being drafted much higher than last year when he was an afterthought, but beware because you are playing with fire if you think a repeat or increase on 2016 numbers is going to happen.

 


KIRK COUSINS

 

Captain Kirk is coming off a career high in passing yards (4,917) in his second season under the helm for the Washington Redskins. You may be thinking that it is a little early in Cousins career to beware, but there are many reasons you should beware of drafting the Captain in 2017. In 2016 Kirk had 13 plays of 40 or more yards, but eight of those plays came from DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon, both of whom are not on the team in 2017. He also had seven plays of 50 or more yards, four of which went for touchdowns, three of which came from DeSean Jackson. In 2015 Kirk only had eight plays of 50 or more yards, half of which came from DJax. He also only had five touchdowns of 30 or more yards compared to the eight he threw in 2016. Cousins has a lot of upside for his career, but he has so many new weapons in the offense in 2017 that there is going to be a regression from the comfort level he had with Garcon and Jackson over the last two seasons. Captain Kirk is going to find that he is the only officer left on the ship, and if you draft him high you will both be on the bridge of ship that is caught in a gravitational pull and going down.

 

 

LEGARRETTE BLOUNT

 

Blount is coming off a career year in yards (1,161) and touchdowns (18). This is only the second time in his seven-year career that he has topped 1,000 yards, the last time coming in his rookie season. LaGarrette had 3 runs of 40 or more yards in 2016 (two that went for touchdowns), compared to no runs of 40 or more yards in 2015. Blount also had seven runs of 20 or more yards last season, compared to four 20-yard runs in 2015. LG was able to do most of his damage because of the offense that he was in with the Patriots. This year he will be playing for the Philadelphia Eagles, which has a lot of ground to catch up on the Patriots in terms of effective offense. Blount is going to see a major decrease in the number of touchdowns scored, as his previous career high was 11 fewer than he scored in 2016. LaGarrette is also a one-dimensional running back, and you are betting on fools’ gold if you are expecting the same return on investment in 2017. 

 


LATAVIUS MURRAY

 

Putting Murray on this list may be stretch, but there is enough reason to beware that he makes this list. Latavius is coming off a career high in touchdowns (12), which doubled his previous career high. Murray was not very dynamic in 2016, only rushing for 788 yards. He only had one run for 40 or more yards in 2016, and just five runs of 20 or more yards. In 2015 he rushed for 1,066 yards, but only had two runs of 40 or more yards, and nine runs of 20 or more yards. This year he is moving to Minnesota and joining a crowded backfield. The Vikings are not completely sold on Murray, which is why they drafted Dalvin Cook. Cook alone is a major reason to beware of Murray, but the fact is he is going to have a hard time getting anywhere close to the 12 touchdowns he scored last season, so beware.

 


T.Y. HILTON

 

Hilton is entering his sixth season, and he is coming off a career year with high marks in yards (1,448), receptions (91) and targets (155). T.Y. is a chunk receiver, as evidenced by his 14 pass receptions of 30 yards or more with four of them going for scores in 2016. That nearly doubled the production he had in 2015 with only nine plays of 30 or more yards with just two of them going for touchdowns. The Colts have a strong offense and Hilton is the main catalyst in the passing game, which should continue, but to expect a repeat of 2016 is not wise. In 2016 he averaged 20 yards more per game than he did in 2016, a major jump that is sure to see a regression in 2017. Hilton has also never been a major redzone target, which prevents him from being a double-digit touchdown scorer (career high 7 TDs) and will not allow him to be able to overcome the expected decrease in receiving yards. Hilton is one of my favorite players, but you should beware of over drafting him in 2017.

 


DAVANTE ADAMS

 

Adams had a breakout year in 2016 with career highs in yards (997), receptions (75), targets (121) and touchdowns (12). The final stat of 12 touchdowns is the one that makes Adams a major player to beware in 2017. Touchdowns are the hardest thing to repeat, even on an offense like the Packers. Adams was not a major big play threat with only seven receptions of 30 or more yards and two of 50 or more yards, only two of which went for scores. The Packers are bringing in another threat in the passing game in Martellus Bennett, who is going to take target share away from Adams, especially in the redzone. This makes Adams, while a player on the rise, a player to beware of in 2017.

 


KYLE RUDOLPH

 

Rudolph is second in line as the poster child for Career Year Beware in 2017, as he is coming off his best season in six years in the league. Kyle had career highs in yards (840), receptions (83), and targets (132). Those career marks are major increases from his previous levels. In 2017 Rudolph had 345 more yards, 30 more receptions and 39 more targets than his previous career highs. He had 11 plays of 20 or more yards in 2016 compared to just four such plays in 2015. Kyle had never had a season with more than 500 receiving yards prior to 2016, and expecting him to maintain or increase his production is a major stretch. The Vikings are not a dynamic offense and still mainly relies on the running game, especially in the redzone. If Rudolph were on a different team a better argument could be made against this prediction, but he doesn’t and you should beware.

 


DELANIE WALKER

 

Walker has been on a high for the last three seasons with more 800 receiving yards, 100 targets and has 17 of his career 31 touchdowns over that time frame. Last season he had a career high with seven touchdowns scored. Over the past two seasons Delanie has had 13 receptions for 20 or more yards and two for 40 or more yards with two touchdowns each season. The problem for Walker first and foremost is his age (33), and young up and coming receivers surround that him. Marcus Mariota has relied on Walker the last two seasons, but as his comfort level increases he is going to spread the ball around even more in 2017. Walker has been a stud tight end over the past three seasons, but you better beware over drafting him in 2017.

 

 


By Houdini

 

 

 


 

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