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April 21, 2018
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Eric Ebron

Detroit Lions

Ebron Could Use Some Luck


Colts signed TE Eric Ebron, formerly of the Lions, to a two-year contract. Coach Frank Reich called Ebron an "elite tight end."

The last time we saw Andrew Luck healthy (2016), the Colts used 2+ TE sets at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL and had the 6th-highest target share to TEs.


04/01/18, 11:32 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Carlos Hyde

San Francisco 49ers

Hyde and Seek


Browns agreed to terms with RB Carlos Hyde, formerly of the 49ers, on a three-year, $15 million contract.

Obtaining Hyde has several trickle-down effects; first it replaces Crowell who signed with the Jets, it probably diminishes Duke Johnson’s value a bit. Hyde is a better all-around back than Crowell was and will certainly take over the goal-line work seeing that he’s got 20+ pounds on Duke. It also reduces the likelihood that Cleveland takes Saquon Barkley with the 4th pick in the draft. They will most likely look to draft a defensive player (Chubb) or trade down again.


04/01/18, 11:28 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jerick McKinnon

Minnesota Vikings

McKinnon Goes West For Gold-Rush


49ers agreed to terms with RB Jerick McKinnon, formerly of the Vikings, on a four-year, $30 million contract.

McKinnon averaged a ho-hum 3.8 yards a carry for the Vikings and scored three rushing touchdowns. By contrast, San Francisco's former lead runner, Carlos Hyde, averaged 3.9 yards an attempt in 2017 and had eight rushing touchdowns.

It appears as though Shanahan is enamored with McKinnon's athletic metrics, but I'm not so sure he was "pounding the table" to get him. This move could push the Niner's to cut Joe Williams.


04/01/18, 11:12 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.sacbee.com


Mike Wallace

Baltimore Ravens

Eagles Keep Improving


Eagles signed WR Mike Wallace to a one-year contract.
Mike Wallace can still move posting a top five max speed among wide receivers last season. He will fill the void left by Torrey Smith as a speed vertical threat.


04/01/18, 11:08 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Terrelle Pryor

Washington Redskins

Jets Searching For Weapons


Jets agreed to terms with WR Terrelle Pryor, formerly of Washington and Cleveland.

Second year in a row on a new team doesn’t really help Pryor's cause, but I like the idea of him on the field with Teddy Bridgewater at some point. I would imagine, with some creativity, the Jets could really design some innovative gadget plays.
The Jets receiving corps really looks like a bunch of question marks at this point though, no telling what the week-to-week outcome will be with these guys.
Jermaine Kearse: 65 catches, 810 yards, 5 touchdowns (2017)
Robby Anderson: 63 catches, 941 yards, 7 touchdowns (2017)
Quincy Enunwa: 58 catches, 857 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)
Terrelle Pryor: 77 catches, 1007 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)


04/01/18, 11:04 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Carlos Henderson

Denver Broncos

Sleeper Watch


Broncos coach Vance Joseph said the team is "counting on" Carlos Henderson making an impact in 2018.

If you are paying attention to Staggs projections there is plenty of opportunity for Henderson to step into a solid number of targets in the slot. Henderson was hindered by injury and awful QB play last year. Being drafted in the 18th round or later in best-ball leagues, Henderson is the late round flyer that should be on your radar.


04/01/18, 11:00 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.denverpost.com


Ben Watson

Baltimore Ravens

Watson Returns To Big Easy


Saints signed TE Ben Watson, formerly of the Ravens, to a one-year contract.

Watson had 74 catches on 110 targets for 825 yards and 6 TD’s when he was with the Saints in 2015. After missing 2016 he had a pretty good year with Baltimore last year despite an anemic offense, with 61 catches on 79 targets for 522 yards and 4 TD’s. He’s not a bad late round flyer TE. He’s basically free right now, but I expect by the time the season starts he’ll be being drafted within the top 20 at the position.


04/01/18, 10:54 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jeff Janis

Green Bay Packers

Janis Truthers Challenged


Browns officially signed former Packers’ WR Jeff Janis.
The combine superstar never amounted to anything in Green Bay, I highly doubt Cleveland is the place for him to finally break-out.


04/01/18, 10:50 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Thomas Rawls

Seattle Seahawks

Jets Sign Rawls


Rawls had five RB1 games in 2015, one in 2016, and has been a disappointment since. He’s not worth your time in fantasy, but he could cause enough disruption in the Jets backfield to cut any upside we might have hoped for from Isaiah Crowell.


04/01/18, 10:48 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.newyorkjets.com


Allen Robinson

Jacksonville Jaguars

Coo coo ca choo Mr. Robinson


Bears signed WR Allen Robinson, formerly of the Jaguars, to a three-year, $42 million contract.

This is a great move for Robinson and Chicago. Nagy’s offense and the young QB, Trubiski, should benefit Robinson at least as much as Bortles did, and Chicago gets the top WR in free agency.
Everyone on the team will be in a new scheme so there will be an adjustment, but as they start to gel we should see a big second half. Robinson’s recovery from a torn ACL doesn’t scare me away from drafting him in the late third/early fourth, his current MFL10 ADP is 43 overall while his Draft app ADP is 59.9. I expect Robinson to be somewhere in the range of 75 receptions, for 1100 yards and 8 TD’s.


03/24/18, 08:25 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Sammy Watkins

Los Angeles Rams

KC Building Strong Air Attack


Chiefs signed Sammy Watkins, formerly of the Rams, to a three-year, $48 million contract.

I’m a big Sammy truther so getting him in the 5th or 6th round is a pure power move. His current Draft app ADP of 87.1 is an absolute steal, his MFL10 ADP of 69.5 is still a great value in my opinion. There are quite a few options for high targets in KC so I don’t expect him to see the 128 targets he saw his rookie year, but he should definitely see more than the 70 he saw last year. He’ll have an entire offseason to work with the near-rookie QB, and at age 25 he should have enough burst left to have a 70 catch, 1050 yd, 8TD line. For his career he has 16 receptions on 30 targets for 12 TD’s in the Red Zone, and 9 receptions on 13 targets, for 8 TD’s inside the opponents 10. He should be the exact WR the Chiefs need to get over the hump. As a team the Chiefs were 34/75 for 13 TD’s in the Red-Zone last year and 12/24 for 10 TD inside the 10.


03/24/18, 08:19 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.pro-football-reference.com


Kirk Cousins

Washington Redskins

Vikings Like That


Kirk Cousins plans to sign a three-year, fully-guaranteed contract from the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday. The deal is believed to be for around $86 million, and reports are it will be fully-guaranteed, a landmark for an NFL free agent.

Should be a lateral move for Kirk as far as fantasy, better WR’s, but fewer passes thrown in this offense. A healthy Dalvin Cook should be able to run out the clock if they are up in the second half of games and take the ball out of Cousins hands near the end zone. It should also help the overall efficiency of the offense so all in all it increases his floor, but cuts any garbage-time production we’ve seen with Washington. Kyle Rudolph becomes a big benefactor here, Cousins loves his TE, especially near the end-zone.


03/24/18, 08:16 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Case Keenum

Minnesota Vikings

Denver Makes Case


Broncos signed QB Case Keenum, formerly of the Vikings, to a two-year, $36 million contract.

Well, I was hoping for more than a bridge QB for my favorite WR (D. Thomas), but this is a definite upgrade from the three stooges Denver put behind center last year.


03/24/18, 08:13 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


LeGarrette Blount

Philadelphia Eagles

Detroit Sparks Up Blount


The Lions signed free agent RB LeGarrette Blount to a 1-year deal worth $4.5M. He’s back with Matt Patricia, as the New England ties are strong.

The Lions have needed a true goal-line/power-back for years. I expect Blount to get between 150-200 touches and all the short-yardage carries. Detroit’s offense doesn’t really fit what Blount brings to the table, but I expect Patricia will have some influence over how the offense will operate from here-on-out.


03/24/18, 08:10 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Cleveland Browns

Money Ball: The Sequel


Hate to start out the offseason with the Cleveland Browns, but they are makin’ moves!
Browns acquired: Tyrod Taylor, Jarvis Landry, Damarious Randall
Browns gave up: 2018 3rd-round pick (No. 65), 2018 4th-round pick, 2019 7th-round pick, DeShone Kizer

Building with experienced quality performers that have something to prove, by selling inconsequential draft picks is exactly what Sashi Brown was building up for. It’s a shame he won’t be around to reap the rewards, but these are quality moves for a win-now mentality.


03/09/18, 09:37 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Tyrod Taylor

Buffalo Bills

Hue Looks To TyGoat


Browns left tackle Joe Thomas, who's pondering his future, is a fan of Tyrod Taylor and has said so on the ThomaHawk Show podcast.

Tyrod is just one season removed (2016) from being the QB11 in average fantasy ppg, including seven 20+ point weeks and six 15+ point weeks. Given the current talent on the O-line and skill position weapons he could improve on those numbers. He has the potential to be this year’s Alex Smith, definitely heading my late-round (12+) QB picks now.


03/09/18, 09:32 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Deshone Kizer

Cleveland Browns

Packers Get In On The Fun


The Packers have traded for QB DeShone Kizer from the Browns to Green Bay.

This is the best possible scenario for Kizer, who was thrown into the fire last season. Getting the chance to develop and learn behind the best in the business is the best chance he has for longevity.


03/09/18, 09:30 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Torrey Smith

Philadelphia Eagles

On The Move Again


The Eagles trade WR Torrey Smith to the Panthers for CB Daryl Worley. Torrey Smith could fill the old Ted Ginn role which makes this fairly interesting. Stagg Party says it’s more of a boost for Cam than Torrey himself.

This is an absolute perfect fit, someone who isn’t going to demand the ball, but can take the top off a defense while McCaffrey, Olsen, and Cam work underneath. Torrey is looking like a great late-round flyer.


03/09/18, 09:28 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


DeMarco Murray

Tennessee Titans

Henry Hype Train Has Clear Track


DeMarco Murray was released by the Titans.
No surprise here, expect Derick Henry to be a lead back with 250+ touches, but they will bring in someone that will play the third-down, pass-catching role out of the backfield. I wouldn’t be surprised if they sign someone like Jerick McKinnon or Rex Burkhead, or even Darren Sproles or Charles Sims. There are also plenty of options in the NFL draft, Henry won’t be a true “Bell Cow.”


03/09/18, 09:17 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Marquise Goodwin

San Francisco 49ers

The Name Says It All


Marquise Goodwin and the 49ers have agreed to a 3yr extension worth $20.3M & 10M guaranteed.

Shanahan has found his big-play threat at a reasonable price. Goodwin caught 56 balls for 962 yards last season, but only had two TD’s. None of his six longest plays (33+ yards) were from Garoppollo so it leads me to believe they will still be looking for a top of the line WR, even with Garcon coming back from injury.


03/09/18, 09:15 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons will have a hard to repeating the amazing offensive attack they had in 2016 this upcoming season

Career Year Beware! by Houdini

Posted by d-Rx on 06/20/17

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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Every year when the fantasy drafts come around there are players that get way over drafted because the owners that pick them expect them to produce the same or better results than they did last year, but these players are coming off a career year and you should expect the opposite. These happen year after year, and the results are almost always the same, so if you are thinking of drafting one of these players, beware of the career year!!!

 


MATT RYAN

 

Matt Ryan is the poster child for Career Year Beware in 2017. Ryan is coming off career highs in yards (4,944), touchdowns (38) and a career low in interceptions (7). Matty Ice has been pretty consistent with six years in a row with more than 4,000 passing yards, but a look inside the numbers will tell you to beware of counting on a repeat. The Falcons have a dynamic offense with weapons all over the field, and that translated into a career high of 17 pass plays for 40 or more yards in 2016. He also completed seven pass plays of 50 or more yards with three of them going for touchdowns (64,75 & 76 yards). Ryan also had 11 touchdowns in 2016 that went for 30 or more yards. Let’s put this into context with his numbers from the year before. In 2015 Ryan only had nine plays of 40 or more yards compared to the 17 he threw in 2016. In fact Matt threw for a total of 17 plays over 40 or more yards in 2014 and 2015 combined. His seven plays of 50 or more yards is one more than he completed in 2014 and 2015 combined. His 11 touchdowns of 30 or more yards in 2016 were two more than he threw in 2014 and 2015 combined. There is no doubt that the Falcons have an amazing offense and Ryan is going to put up good numbers this year, but to think that he is going to repeat something that he has not previously done in his nine years in the league, is foolish. Ryan is being drafted much higher than last year when he was an afterthought, but beware because you are playing with fire if you think a repeat or increase on 2016 numbers is going to happen.

 


KIRK COUSINS

 

Captain Kirk is coming off a career high in passing yards (4,917) in his second season under the helm for the Washington Redskins. You may be thinking that it is a little early in Cousins career to beware, but there are many reasons you should beware of drafting the Captain in 2017. In 2016 Kirk had 13 plays of 40 or more yards, but eight of those plays came from DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon, both of whom are not on the team in 2017. He also had seven plays of 50 or more yards, four of which went for touchdowns, three of which came from DeSean Jackson. In 2015 Kirk only had eight plays of 50 or more yards, half of which came from DJax. He also only had five touchdowns of 30 or more yards compared to the eight he threw in 2016. Cousins has a lot of upside for his career, but he has so many new weapons in the offense in 2017 that there is going to be a regression from the comfort level he had with Garcon and Jackson over the last two seasons. Captain Kirk is going to find that he is the only officer left on the ship, and if you draft him high you will both be on the bridge of ship that is caught in a gravitational pull and going down.

 

 

LEGARRETTE BLOUNT

 

Blount is coming off a career year in yards (1,161) and touchdowns (18). This is only the second time in his seven-year career that he has topped 1,000 yards, the last time coming in his rookie season. LaGarrette had 3 runs of 40 or more yards in 2016 (two that went for touchdowns), compared to no runs of 40 or more yards in 2015. Blount also had seven runs of 20 or more yards last season, compared to four 20-yard runs in 2015. LG was able to do most of his damage because of the offense that he was in with the Patriots. This year he will be playing for the Philadelphia Eagles, which has a lot of ground to catch up on the Patriots in terms of effective offense. Blount is going to see a major decrease in the number of touchdowns scored, as his previous career high was 11 fewer than he scored in 2016. LaGarrette is also a one-dimensional running back, and you are betting on fools’ gold if you are expecting the same return on investment in 2017. 

 


LATAVIUS MURRAY

 

Putting Murray on this list may be stretch, but there is enough reason to beware that he makes this list. Latavius is coming off a career high in touchdowns (12), which doubled his previous career high. Murray was not very dynamic in 2016, only rushing for 788 yards. He only had one run for 40 or more yards in 2016, and just five runs of 20 or more yards. In 2015 he rushed for 1,066 yards, but only had two runs of 40 or more yards, and nine runs of 20 or more yards. This year he is moving to Minnesota and joining a crowded backfield. The Vikings are not completely sold on Murray, which is why they drafted Dalvin Cook. Cook alone is a major reason to beware of Murray, but the fact is he is going to have a hard time getting anywhere close to the 12 touchdowns he scored last season, so beware.

 


T.Y. HILTON

 

Hilton is entering his sixth season, and he is coming off a career year with high marks in yards (1,448), receptions (91) and targets (155). T.Y. is a chunk receiver, as evidenced by his 14 pass receptions of 30 yards or more with four of them going for scores in 2016. That nearly doubled the production he had in 2015 with only nine plays of 30 or more yards with just two of them going for touchdowns. The Colts have a strong offense and Hilton is the main catalyst in the passing game, which should continue, but to expect a repeat of 2016 is not wise. In 2016 he averaged 20 yards more per game than he did in 2016, a major jump that is sure to see a regression in 2017. Hilton has also never been a major redzone target, which prevents him from being a double-digit touchdown scorer (career high 7 TDs) and will not allow him to be able to overcome the expected decrease in receiving yards. Hilton is one of my favorite players, but you should beware of over drafting him in 2017.

 


DAVANTE ADAMS

 

Adams had a breakout year in 2016 with career highs in yards (997), receptions (75), targets (121) and touchdowns (12). The final stat of 12 touchdowns is the one that makes Adams a major player to beware in 2017. Touchdowns are the hardest thing to repeat, even on an offense like the Packers. Adams was not a major big play threat with only seven receptions of 30 or more yards and two of 50 or more yards, only two of which went for scores. The Packers are bringing in another threat in the passing game in Martellus Bennett, who is going to take target share away from Adams, especially in the redzone. This makes Adams, while a player on the rise, a player to beware of in 2017.

 


KYLE RUDOLPH

 

Rudolph is second in line as the poster child for Career Year Beware in 2017, as he is coming off his best season in six years in the league. Kyle had career highs in yards (840), receptions (83), and targets (132). Those career marks are major increases from his previous levels. In 2017 Rudolph had 345 more yards, 30 more receptions and 39 more targets than his previous career highs. He had 11 plays of 20 or more yards in 2016 compared to just four such plays in 2015. Kyle had never had a season with more than 500 receiving yards prior to 2016, and expecting him to maintain or increase his production is a major stretch. The Vikings are not a dynamic offense and still mainly relies on the running game, especially in the redzone. If Rudolph were on a different team a better argument could be made against this prediction, but he doesn’t and you should beware.

 


DELANIE WALKER

 

Walker has been on a high for the last three seasons with more 800 receiving yards, 100 targets and has 17 of his career 31 touchdowns over that time frame. Last season he had a career high with seven touchdowns scored. Over the past two seasons Delanie has had 13 receptions for 20 or more yards and two for 40 or more yards with two touchdowns each season. The problem for Walker first and foremost is his age (33), and young up and coming receivers surround that him. Marcus Mariota has relied on Walker the last two seasons, but as his comfort level increases he is going to spread the ball around even more in 2017. Walker has been a stud tight end over the past three seasons, but you better beware over drafting him in 2017.

 

 


By Houdini

 

 

 


 

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