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August 17, 2018
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Cooper Kupp

Los Angeles Rams

Mr. Cooper's neighborhood


Cooper Kupp was 4th in the NFL last year in red-zone targets. Kupp and Goff have the most chemistry of all the receivers on the team as Goff targeted him more than anyone last year. Everyone is expecting Cooks to lead these receivers in points this year, but Kupp will be the receiver to own. Sammy Watkins had eight red-zone touchdowns last year. Cooks is not a red-zone target receiver, so Kupp should see more targets and could sneak into the WR2 with massive upside.


08/13/18, 09:39 PM CDT by C-wags

Source: pyromaniac.com


Jerick McKinnon

Minnesota Vikings

The Jet is set to take off!


Mckinnon has been a super divisive player this offseason. Especially after the first preseason game where he didn't amass many yards and the following day he injured himself in practice. I constantly hear people question his ability to carry the ball 200+ times or that he can’t run between the tackles, or he’s unproven in a lead role. This is all NONSENSE and you shouldn’t believe any of it. Shanahan had his pick of players that he could’ve signed instead of Mckinnon, including Dion Lewis, Carlos Hyde, or drafting a rookie. He chose Mckinnon cause he felt he fit his offensive system in the same way that Devante Freeman fit his scheme. The 49ers just signed Alfred Morris today as a safety net, but I’m taking all the Mckinnon I can this year. I see him carrying the ball 205car/950yds/6td while also amassing 60rec/500yds/5td making him an RB1 this year. Don't be scared, and steal him away from people that are.


08/13/18, 09:24 PM CDT by C-wags

Source: pyromaniac.com


Marquise Goodwin

San Francisco 49ers

Too good, too fast


Marquiae goodwin has been targeted like a number one in camp. With Pierre Garcon likely squaring off with one of the toughest schedules against number one DBs, Goodwin could break out even more than he did last year. I wouldn't put it past him to put up T.Y HIlton numbers this year. Pick him up in the 6th and 7th round and pile up the points.


08/13/18, 09:11 PM CDT by C-wags

Source: pyromaniac.com


Jay Ajayi

Philadelphia Eagles

Ready To Fly


In 2016 Ajayi racked up 1272 yards on 260 carries and 8 TD’s and finished as the RB11 in both standard and PPR scoring. Last year Miami ran him out of town when he struggled in an anemic offense. He was not heavily used when he got to Philly, but his touches did increase every week until the Superbowl. He was also hyper efficient gaining 5.8 yards per carry and 9.1 yards per reception. Despite the general perception Clements usage went down with Ajayi’s arrival, even with Smallwood going down with injury. The Eagles have the number 1 offensive line as graded by PFF, and 18 RB targets and 192 carries vacated. Ajayi is a safe pick in the fourth round and a steal in the fifth.


08/02/18, 06:08 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.nflmock.com


Jimmy Graham

Green Bay Packers

Split Wide, Back in Stride


He is coming off a season that produced only 57 receptions for 520 yards, his fewest since his rookie season. With that said, Graham remains a big-time weapon in the red zone. He led the league last year with 27 targets in the region, which led to 10 touchdowns. You can bet Rodgers and play-caller Mike McCarthy will be utilizing his skills early and often when knocking on the door of the end zone.
Look for McCarthy to use a variety of personnel groupings with his new tight end group and expect to see Graham split out wide as a receiver much more than as a traditional in-line tight end.

This goes right along with what I was saying on Pyro podcast 308. I expect Graham to be used as a wide receiver and not a tight end. When Graham was negotiating his contract in his last season in New Orleans he wanted to be paid on scale with wide receivers because he rarely lined-up as an in-line tight end. When Seattle paid him, he did whatever they asked, and they asked him to block more. He was out for five games that year, but averaged one less reception per game and only scored two TD’s, after having at least nine TD’s in the previous four years. Overall Graham saw about 25% fewer targets while in Seattle compared to New Orleans and his fantasy numbers reflect it. I see Green Bay using him more like he was used in New Orleans, and even though he has obviously lost a step or two I see him as the major replacement for the Jordy Nelson targets.


07/22/18, 01:41 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.packersnews.com


Aaron Jones

Green Bay Packers

Cream Rises To The Top


Jones’ 5.55 YPC on first- and second-down carries trailed only Alvin Kamara (6.24) for best in the league last year. Jamaal Williams averaged 3.80 YPC on first- and second-down in 2017.

He’s slid two rounds since the announcement of his two game suspension, he is a screaming value if you can get him in the ninth round. We already knew he was going to be competing in a crowded backfield so missing two games really shouldn’t be a big hit to his overall production. The likelihood of either of the other two backs taking over the role is slim, Jones should be able to carve out 10 touches a game when he gets back with fresh legs. They are all high risk for injuries so I’m hoping this added rest will help Jones in the long run.


07/21/18, 06:51 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Nelson Agholor

Philadelphia Eagles

Solidified Role


In 2017, Nelson Agholor had 62 recs, 768 yds, 9 TDs and 7 games of WR2 or better. There is no reason he wouldn't maintain this output, even with additions in the offense. Agholor had to carve out a role for himself and beat out incumbent Jordan Matthews. This year he'll be the main slot receiver and have an established role from the start.


07/21/18, 06:49 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Sterling Shepard

New York Giants

Buying The Slot Receiver in a Shurmur Offense


Sterling Shepard is currently 24 years old with a 124/1,414/10 career line, in two seasons. He finished 2017 as the WR42 in 11 games (WR22 in FP/G) with only a 13.9% target share. He finished 2016 as the WR36 as a rookie. He's currently being drafted as the WR42 in MFL10’s.

Shepard does see more targets (+2.7), get more receptions (+2.3), more yards (+28), and get about three more PPR points per game when Beckham is out. But he still averages over 11 PPR points per game when he is playing. Apparently Shepard is more open in the end-zone when Beckham is playing, as he averages three times as many TD’s when they are both playing.


07/21/18, 06:47 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Allen Hurns

Jacksonville Jaguars

Plenty of Targets in Dallas


He’s been hampered by injuries over the past couple of years, but when he has stayed healthy and gotten the targets he has been successful. His best season was in 2015, he had 105 Targets for 64 Receptions at 1031 Yards for 10 TDs, that’s 16.11 Yards Per Reception and a 61% Catch Rate coming from Blake Bortles. He finished as the WR14 in Standard Scoring and WR18 in PPR.

He's an amazing value in the 11th round of current best-ball drafts.


07/21/18, 06:41 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Eric Ebron

Detroit Lions

Second Team Breath's New Life Into TE


Outside Brady, Luck is the only other QB to support 2 TE's, both Fleener and Allen had 8 TD's with Luck. Frank Reich runs 2 TE sets very successfully - see: 2018 Eagles. TE1's for Coach Reich have never finished worse than 12th. Yes, Doyle would seem like the obvious choice after last season, but that was with Brissett who needed a quick dump off outlet. Luck isn't a check-down machine.

Eric Ebron has lined up "everywhere" in the Colts offense. And the new tight end already is beginning to feel at home in Indianapolis. Without a strong WR2, Ebron could see a large number of targets. The Colt's line-up in two TE sets more than any other team in the NFL.


07/21/18, 06:36 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Matt Breida

San Francisco 49ers

Filling Coleman Role


“One guy who stood out at Niners practice to me was RB Matt Breida. No one talks about him, but the dude is gonna get some run this year. Fast downhill player.”

This is just some more camp hype from a beat reporter, but if they don’t get another running back through trade or free-agency Brieda is going to see plenty of touches to pay off being picked in the 15th round of fantasy drafts. McKinnon has never had over 205 touches in a season, that leaves plenty of opportunity in a Shanahan offense.


07/21/18, 06:28 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


LeSean McCoy

Buffalo Bills

McCoy starring down 30 with uncertainty


LeSean McCoy, despite ending the year as the #7 fantasy running back in standard leagues was a slight disappointment for fantasy owners last year. McCoy played in all 16 regular season games, but only cracked 100 yards rushing 4 times, and averaged 4.0 yards per rush, which was 23rd in the NFL. That all happened with a formidable QB with a scrambling ability that defenses had to respect, presumably allowing McCoy some more room before tacklers ascended.
The Bills have the least sexy QB situation in the entire NFL in my opinion. With Tyrod Taylor at the helm for most of the season last year, the bills had the 31st passing offense. None of the QBs on the Bills roster are considered mobile and without a wide receiver on their roster worthy of drafting in any fantasy formats, defenses can stack the box against McCoy. McCoy will be overused, underperform and probably get hurt because of it. McCoy’s ADP is in the second round, but wouldn’t touch him until the fourth or beginning of the fifth round.


06/29/18, 12:42 PM CDT by C-wags

Source: pyromaniac.com


Tyreek Hill

Kansas City Chiefs

Hill lookin' busty with chiefs new look.


Tyreek Hill had a great 2017, amounting 75 receptions for 1183 yards and 7 touchdowns in 15 games. He’s currently being drafted in the middle of the third round in standard leagues, which would appear to be a great value. However, with promoted RB coach Eric Bieniemy presumably in-line to be the primary play caller, a new QB, Travis Kelce receiving the #1 target share and the addition of Sammy Watkins, I expect Hill’s numbers to decrease dramatically.
I believe Hill to be more of a boom or bust player this year. There’s no denying his break-away speed and ability to separate from defenders, and with Mahomes cannon of an arm, I expect them to connect deep on occasion. However, I believe Sammy Watkins to be the more complete receiver and likely to take more of the target share from Hill. Bundled with the change in offensive strategy toward the end of last year to run the ball more, the change to a young QB presumably resulting in a more conservative game plan, I see a major decline in the amount of touches Hill will get and see him as more of a 5-6 round flex play guy.


06/21/18, 10:54 AM CDT by C-wags

Source: pyromaniac.com


Eric Ebron

Detroit Lions

Ebron Could Use Some Luck


Colts signed TE Eric Ebron, formerly of the Lions, to a two-year contract. Coach Frank Reich called Ebron an "elite tight end."

The last time we saw Andrew Luck healthy (2016), the Colts used 2+ TE sets at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL and had the 6th-highest target share to TEs.


04/01/18, 11:32 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Carlos Hyde

San Francisco 49ers

Hyde and Seek


Browns agreed to terms with RB Carlos Hyde, formerly of the 49ers, on a three-year, $15 million contract.

Obtaining Hyde has several trickle-down effects; first it replaces Crowell who signed with the Jets, it probably diminishes Duke Johnson’s value a bit. Hyde is a better all-around back than Crowell was and will certainly take over the goal-line work seeing that he’s got 20+ pounds on Duke. It also reduces the likelihood that Cleveland takes Saquon Barkley with the 4th pick in the draft. They will most likely look to draft a defensive player (Chubb) or trade down again.


04/01/18, 11:28 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jerick McKinnon

Minnesota Vikings

McKinnon Goes West For Gold-Rush


49ers agreed to terms with RB Jerick McKinnon, formerly of the Vikings, on a four-year, $30 million contract.

McKinnon averaged a ho-hum 3.8 yards a carry for the Vikings and scored three rushing touchdowns. By contrast, San Francisco's former lead runner, Carlos Hyde, averaged 3.9 yards an attempt in 2017 and had eight rushing touchdowns.

It appears as though Shanahan is enamored with McKinnon's athletic metrics, but I'm not so sure he was "pounding the table" to get him. This move could push the Niner's to cut Joe Williams.


04/01/18, 11:12 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.sacbee.com


Mike Wallace

Baltimore Ravens

Eagles Keep Improving


Eagles signed WR Mike Wallace to a one-year contract.
Mike Wallace can still move posting a top five max speed among wide receivers last season. He will fill the void left by Torrey Smith as a speed vertical threat.


04/01/18, 11:08 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Terrelle Pryor

Washington Redskins

Jets Searching For Weapons


Jets agreed to terms with WR Terrelle Pryor, formerly of Washington and Cleveland.

Second year in a row on a new team doesn’t really help Pryor's cause, but I like the idea of him on the field with Teddy Bridgewater at some point. I would imagine, with some creativity, the Jets could really design some innovative gadget plays.
The Jets receiving corps really looks like a bunch of question marks at this point though, no telling what the week-to-week outcome will be with these guys.
Jermaine Kearse: 65 catches, 810 yards, 5 touchdowns (2017)
Robby Anderson: 63 catches, 941 yards, 7 touchdowns (2017)
Quincy Enunwa: 58 catches, 857 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)
Terrelle Pryor: 77 catches, 1007 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)


04/01/18, 11:04 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Carlos Henderson

Denver Broncos

Sleeper Watch


Broncos coach Vance Joseph said the team is "counting on" Carlos Henderson making an impact in 2018.

If you are paying attention to Staggs projections there is plenty of opportunity for Henderson to step into a solid number of targets in the slot. Henderson was hindered by injury and awful QB play last year. Being drafted in the 18th round or later in best-ball leagues, Henderson is the late round flyer that should be on your radar.


04/01/18, 11:00 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.denverpost.com


Ben Watson

Baltimore Ravens

Watson Returns To Big Easy


Saints signed TE Ben Watson, formerly of the Ravens, to a one-year contract.

Watson had 74 catches on 110 targets for 825 yards and 6 TD’s when he was with the Saints in 2015. After missing 2016 he had a pretty good year with Baltimore last year despite an anemic offense, with 61 catches on 79 targets for 522 yards and 4 TD’s. He’s not a bad late round flyer TE. He’s basically free right now, but I expect by the time the season starts he’ll be being drafted within the top 20 at the position.


04/01/18, 10:54 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons will have a hard to repeating the amazing offensive attack they had in 2016 this upcoming season

Career Year Beware! by Houdini

Posted by d-Rx on 06/20/17

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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Every year when the fantasy drafts come around there are players that get way over drafted because the owners that pick them expect them to produce the same or better results than they did last year, but these players are coming off a career year and you should expect the opposite. These happen year after year, and the results are almost always the same, so if you are thinking of drafting one of these players, beware of the career year!!!

 


MATT RYAN

 

Matt Ryan is the poster child for Career Year Beware in 2017. Ryan is coming off career highs in yards (4,944), touchdowns (38) and a career low in interceptions (7). Matty Ice has been pretty consistent with six years in a row with more than 4,000 passing yards, but a look inside the numbers will tell you to beware of counting on a repeat. The Falcons have a dynamic offense with weapons all over the field, and that translated into a career high of 17 pass plays for 40 or more yards in 2016. He also completed seven pass plays of 50 or more yards with three of them going for touchdowns (64,75 & 76 yards). Ryan also had 11 touchdowns in 2016 that went for 30 or more yards. Let’s put this into context with his numbers from the year before. In 2015 Ryan only had nine plays of 40 or more yards compared to the 17 he threw in 2016. In fact Matt threw for a total of 17 plays over 40 or more yards in 2014 and 2015 combined. His seven plays of 50 or more yards is one more than he completed in 2014 and 2015 combined. His 11 touchdowns of 30 or more yards in 2016 were two more than he threw in 2014 and 2015 combined. There is no doubt that the Falcons have an amazing offense and Ryan is going to put up good numbers this year, but to think that he is going to repeat something that he has not previously done in his nine years in the league, is foolish. Ryan is being drafted much higher than last year when he was an afterthought, but beware because you are playing with fire if you think a repeat or increase on 2016 numbers is going to happen.

 


KIRK COUSINS

 

Captain Kirk is coming off a career high in passing yards (4,917) in his second season under the helm for the Washington Redskins. You may be thinking that it is a little early in Cousins career to beware, but there are many reasons you should beware of drafting the Captain in 2017. In 2016 Kirk had 13 plays of 40 or more yards, but eight of those plays came from DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon, both of whom are not on the team in 2017. He also had seven plays of 50 or more yards, four of which went for touchdowns, three of which came from DeSean Jackson. In 2015 Kirk only had eight plays of 50 or more yards, half of which came from DJax. He also only had five touchdowns of 30 or more yards compared to the eight he threw in 2016. Cousins has a lot of upside for his career, but he has so many new weapons in the offense in 2017 that there is going to be a regression from the comfort level he had with Garcon and Jackson over the last two seasons. Captain Kirk is going to find that he is the only officer left on the ship, and if you draft him high you will both be on the bridge of ship that is caught in a gravitational pull and going down.

 

 

LEGARRETTE BLOUNT

 

Blount is coming off a career year in yards (1,161) and touchdowns (18). This is only the second time in his seven-year career that he has topped 1,000 yards, the last time coming in his rookie season. LaGarrette had 3 runs of 40 or more yards in 2016 (two that went for touchdowns), compared to no runs of 40 or more yards in 2015. Blount also had seven runs of 20 or more yards last season, compared to four 20-yard runs in 2015. LG was able to do most of his damage because of the offense that he was in with the Patriots. This year he will be playing for the Philadelphia Eagles, which has a lot of ground to catch up on the Patriots in terms of effective offense. Blount is going to see a major decrease in the number of touchdowns scored, as his previous career high was 11 fewer than he scored in 2016. LaGarrette is also a one-dimensional running back, and you are betting on fools’ gold if you are expecting the same return on investment in 2017. 

 


LATAVIUS MURRAY

 

Putting Murray on this list may be stretch, but there is enough reason to beware that he makes this list. Latavius is coming off a career high in touchdowns (12), which doubled his previous career high. Murray was not very dynamic in 2016, only rushing for 788 yards. He only had one run for 40 or more yards in 2016, and just five runs of 20 or more yards. In 2015 he rushed for 1,066 yards, but only had two runs of 40 or more yards, and nine runs of 20 or more yards. This year he is moving to Minnesota and joining a crowded backfield. The Vikings are not completely sold on Murray, which is why they drafted Dalvin Cook. Cook alone is a major reason to beware of Murray, but the fact is he is going to have a hard time getting anywhere close to the 12 touchdowns he scored last season, so beware.

 


T.Y. HILTON

 

Hilton is entering his sixth season, and he is coming off a career year with high marks in yards (1,448), receptions (91) and targets (155). T.Y. is a chunk receiver, as evidenced by his 14 pass receptions of 30 yards or more with four of them going for scores in 2016. That nearly doubled the production he had in 2015 with only nine plays of 30 or more yards with just two of them going for touchdowns. The Colts have a strong offense and Hilton is the main catalyst in the passing game, which should continue, but to expect a repeat of 2016 is not wise. In 2016 he averaged 20 yards more per game than he did in 2016, a major jump that is sure to see a regression in 2017. Hilton has also never been a major redzone target, which prevents him from being a double-digit touchdown scorer (career high 7 TDs) and will not allow him to be able to overcome the expected decrease in receiving yards. Hilton is one of my favorite players, but you should beware of over drafting him in 2017.

 


DAVANTE ADAMS

 

Adams had a breakout year in 2016 with career highs in yards (997), receptions (75), targets (121) and touchdowns (12). The final stat of 12 touchdowns is the one that makes Adams a major player to beware in 2017. Touchdowns are the hardest thing to repeat, even on an offense like the Packers. Adams was not a major big play threat with only seven receptions of 30 or more yards and two of 50 or more yards, only two of which went for scores. The Packers are bringing in another threat in the passing game in Martellus Bennett, who is going to take target share away from Adams, especially in the redzone. This makes Adams, while a player on the rise, a player to beware of in 2017.

 


KYLE RUDOLPH

 

Rudolph is second in line as the poster child for Career Year Beware in 2017, as he is coming off his best season in six years in the league. Kyle had career highs in yards (840), receptions (83), and targets (132). Those career marks are major increases from his previous levels. In 2017 Rudolph had 345 more yards, 30 more receptions and 39 more targets than his previous career highs. He had 11 plays of 20 or more yards in 2016 compared to just four such plays in 2015. Kyle had never had a season with more than 500 receiving yards prior to 2016, and expecting him to maintain or increase his production is a major stretch. The Vikings are not a dynamic offense and still mainly relies on the running game, especially in the redzone. If Rudolph were on a different team a better argument could be made against this prediction, but he doesn’t and you should beware.

 


DELANIE WALKER

 

Walker has been on a high for the last three seasons with more 800 receiving yards, 100 targets and has 17 of his career 31 touchdowns over that time frame. Last season he had a career high with seven touchdowns scored. Over the past two seasons Delanie has had 13 receptions for 20 or more yards and two for 40 or more yards with two touchdowns each season. The problem for Walker first and foremost is his age (33), and young up and coming receivers surround that him. Marcus Mariota has relied on Walker the last two seasons, but as his comfort level increases he is going to spread the ball around even more in 2017. Walker has been a stud tight end over the past three seasons, but you better beware over drafting him in 2017.

 

 


By Houdini

 

 

 


 

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