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May 22, 2018
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Eric Ebron

Detroit Lions

Ebron Could Use Some Luck


Colts signed TE Eric Ebron, formerly of the Lions, to a two-year contract. Coach Frank Reich called Ebron an "elite tight end."

The last time we saw Andrew Luck healthy (2016), the Colts used 2+ TE sets at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL and had the 6th-highest target share to TEs.


04/01/18, 11:32 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Carlos Hyde

San Francisco 49ers

Hyde and Seek


Browns agreed to terms with RB Carlos Hyde, formerly of the 49ers, on a three-year, $15 million contract.

Obtaining Hyde has several trickle-down effects; first it replaces Crowell who signed with the Jets, it probably diminishes Duke Johnson’s value a bit. Hyde is a better all-around back than Crowell was and will certainly take over the goal-line work seeing that he’s got 20+ pounds on Duke. It also reduces the likelihood that Cleveland takes Saquon Barkley with the 4th pick in the draft. They will most likely look to draft a defensive player (Chubb) or trade down again.


04/01/18, 11:28 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jerick McKinnon

Minnesota Vikings

McKinnon Goes West For Gold-Rush


49ers agreed to terms with RB Jerick McKinnon, formerly of the Vikings, on a four-year, $30 million contract.

McKinnon averaged a ho-hum 3.8 yards a carry for the Vikings and scored three rushing touchdowns. By contrast, San Francisco's former lead runner, Carlos Hyde, averaged 3.9 yards an attempt in 2017 and had eight rushing touchdowns.

It appears as though Shanahan is enamored with McKinnon's athletic metrics, but I'm not so sure he was "pounding the table" to get him. This move could push the Niner's to cut Joe Williams.


04/01/18, 11:12 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.sacbee.com


Mike Wallace

Baltimore Ravens

Eagles Keep Improving


Eagles signed WR Mike Wallace to a one-year contract.
Mike Wallace can still move posting a top five max speed among wide receivers last season. He will fill the void left by Torrey Smith as a speed vertical threat.


04/01/18, 11:08 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Terrelle Pryor

Washington Redskins

Jets Searching For Weapons


Jets agreed to terms with WR Terrelle Pryor, formerly of Washington and Cleveland.

Second year in a row on a new team doesn’t really help Pryor's cause, but I like the idea of him on the field with Teddy Bridgewater at some point. I would imagine, with some creativity, the Jets could really design some innovative gadget plays.
The Jets receiving corps really looks like a bunch of question marks at this point though, no telling what the week-to-week outcome will be with these guys.
Jermaine Kearse: 65 catches, 810 yards, 5 touchdowns (2017)
Robby Anderson: 63 catches, 941 yards, 7 touchdowns (2017)
Quincy Enunwa: 58 catches, 857 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)
Terrelle Pryor: 77 catches, 1007 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)


04/01/18, 11:04 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Carlos Henderson

Denver Broncos

Sleeper Watch


Broncos coach Vance Joseph said the team is "counting on" Carlos Henderson making an impact in 2018.

If you are paying attention to Staggs projections there is plenty of opportunity for Henderson to step into a solid number of targets in the slot. Henderson was hindered by injury and awful QB play last year. Being drafted in the 18th round or later in best-ball leagues, Henderson is the late round flyer that should be on your radar.


04/01/18, 11:00 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.denverpost.com


Ben Watson

Baltimore Ravens

Watson Returns To Big Easy


Saints signed TE Ben Watson, formerly of the Ravens, to a one-year contract.

Watson had 74 catches on 110 targets for 825 yards and 6 TD’s when he was with the Saints in 2015. After missing 2016 he had a pretty good year with Baltimore last year despite an anemic offense, with 61 catches on 79 targets for 522 yards and 4 TD’s. He’s not a bad late round flyer TE. He’s basically free right now, but I expect by the time the season starts he’ll be being drafted within the top 20 at the position.


04/01/18, 10:54 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jeff Janis

Green Bay Packers

Janis Truthers Challenged


Browns officially signed former Packers’ WR Jeff Janis.
The combine superstar never amounted to anything in Green Bay, I highly doubt Cleveland is the place for him to finally break-out.


04/01/18, 10:50 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Thomas Rawls

Seattle Seahawks

Jets Sign Rawls


Rawls had five RB1 games in 2015, one in 2016, and has been a disappointment since. He’s not worth your time in fantasy, but he could cause enough disruption in the Jets backfield to cut any upside we might have hoped for from Isaiah Crowell.


04/01/18, 10:48 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.newyorkjets.com


Allen Robinson

Jacksonville Jaguars

Coo coo ca choo Mr. Robinson


Bears signed WR Allen Robinson, formerly of the Jaguars, to a three-year, $42 million contract.

This is a great move for Robinson and Chicago. Nagy’s offense and the young QB, Trubiski, should benefit Robinson at least as much as Bortles did, and Chicago gets the top WR in free agency.
Everyone on the team will be in a new scheme so there will be an adjustment, but as they start to gel we should see a big second half. Robinson’s recovery from a torn ACL doesn’t scare me away from drafting him in the late third/early fourth, his current MFL10 ADP is 43 overall while his Draft app ADP is 59.9. I expect Robinson to be somewhere in the range of 75 receptions, for 1100 yards and 8 TD’s.


03/24/18, 08:25 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Sammy Watkins

Los Angeles Rams

KC Building Strong Air Attack


Chiefs signed Sammy Watkins, formerly of the Rams, to a three-year, $48 million contract.

I’m a big Sammy truther so getting him in the 5th or 6th round is a pure power move. His current Draft app ADP of 87.1 is an absolute steal, his MFL10 ADP of 69.5 is still a great value in my opinion. There are quite a few options for high targets in KC so I don’t expect him to see the 128 targets he saw his rookie year, but he should definitely see more than the 70 he saw last year. He’ll have an entire offseason to work with the near-rookie QB, and at age 25 he should have enough burst left to have a 70 catch, 1050 yd, 8TD line. For his career he has 16 receptions on 30 targets for 12 TD’s in the Red Zone, and 9 receptions on 13 targets, for 8 TD’s inside the opponents 10. He should be the exact WR the Chiefs need to get over the hump. As a team the Chiefs were 34/75 for 13 TD’s in the Red-Zone last year and 12/24 for 10 TD inside the 10.


03/24/18, 08:19 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.pro-football-reference.com


Kirk Cousins

Washington Redskins

Vikings Like That


Kirk Cousins plans to sign a three-year, fully-guaranteed contract from the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday. The deal is believed to be for around $86 million, and reports are it will be fully-guaranteed, a landmark for an NFL free agent.

Should be a lateral move for Kirk as far as fantasy, better WR’s, but fewer passes thrown in this offense. A healthy Dalvin Cook should be able to run out the clock if they are up in the second half of games and take the ball out of Cousins hands near the end zone. It should also help the overall efficiency of the offense so all in all it increases his floor, but cuts any garbage-time production we’ve seen with Washington. Kyle Rudolph becomes a big benefactor here, Cousins loves his TE, especially near the end-zone.


03/24/18, 08:16 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Case Keenum

Minnesota Vikings

Denver Makes Case


Broncos signed QB Case Keenum, formerly of the Vikings, to a two-year, $36 million contract.

Well, I was hoping for more than a bridge QB for my favorite WR (D. Thomas), but this is a definite upgrade from the three stooges Denver put behind center last year.


03/24/18, 08:13 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


LeGarrette Blount

Philadelphia Eagles

Detroit Sparks Up Blount


The Lions signed free agent RB LeGarrette Blount to a 1-year deal worth $4.5M. He’s back with Matt Patricia, as the New England ties are strong.

The Lions have needed a true goal-line/power-back for years. I expect Blount to get between 150-200 touches and all the short-yardage carries. Detroit’s offense doesn’t really fit what Blount brings to the table, but I expect Patricia will have some influence over how the offense will operate from here-on-out.


03/24/18, 08:10 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Cleveland Browns

Money Ball: The Sequel


Hate to start out the offseason with the Cleveland Browns, but they are makin’ moves!
Browns acquired: Tyrod Taylor, Jarvis Landry, Damarious Randall
Browns gave up: 2018 3rd-round pick (No. 65), 2018 4th-round pick, 2019 7th-round pick, DeShone Kizer

Building with experienced quality performers that have something to prove, by selling inconsequential draft picks is exactly what Sashi Brown was building up for. It’s a shame he won’t be around to reap the rewards, but these are quality moves for a win-now mentality.


03/09/18, 09:37 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Tyrod Taylor

Buffalo Bills

Hue Looks To TyGoat


Browns left tackle Joe Thomas, who's pondering his future, is a fan of Tyrod Taylor and has said so on the ThomaHawk Show podcast.

Tyrod is just one season removed (2016) from being the QB11 in average fantasy ppg, including seven 20+ point weeks and six 15+ point weeks. Given the current talent on the O-line and skill position weapons he could improve on those numbers. He has the potential to be this year’s Alex Smith, definitely heading my late-round (12+) QB picks now.


03/09/18, 09:32 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Deshone Kizer

Cleveland Browns

Packers Get In On The Fun


The Packers have traded for QB DeShone Kizer from the Browns to Green Bay.

This is the best possible scenario for Kizer, who was thrown into the fire last season. Getting the chance to develop and learn behind the best in the business is the best chance he has for longevity.


03/09/18, 09:30 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Torrey Smith

Philadelphia Eagles

On The Move Again


The Eagles trade WR Torrey Smith to the Panthers for CB Daryl Worley. Torrey Smith could fill the old Ted Ginn role which makes this fairly interesting. Stagg Party says it’s more of a boost for Cam than Torrey himself.

This is an absolute perfect fit, someone who isn’t going to demand the ball, but can take the top off a defense while McCaffrey, Olsen, and Cam work underneath. Torrey is looking like a great late-round flyer.


03/09/18, 09:28 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


DeMarco Murray

Tennessee Titans

Henry Hype Train Has Clear Track


DeMarco Murray was released by the Titans.
No surprise here, expect Derick Henry to be a lead back with 250+ touches, but they will bring in someone that will play the third-down, pass-catching role out of the backfield. I wouldn’t be surprised if they sign someone like Jerick McKinnon or Rex Burkhead, or even Darren Sproles or Charles Sims. There are also plenty of options in the NFL draft, Henry won’t be a true “Bell Cow.”


03/09/18, 09:17 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Marquise Goodwin

San Francisco 49ers

The Name Says It All


Marquise Goodwin and the 49ers have agreed to a 3yr extension worth $20.3M & 10M guaranteed.

Shanahan has found his big-play threat at a reasonable price. Goodwin caught 56 balls for 962 yards last season, but only had two TD’s. None of his six longest plays (33+ yards) were from Garoppollo so it leads me to believe they will still be looking for a top of the line WR, even with Garcon coming back from injury.


03/09/18, 09:15 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Brain graphic symbolizing having the brainpower to cut your loses on a player you like a lot, but need to be willing to let go in fantasy football.

Escalation of Commitment in Fantasy Football

Posted by d-Rx on 08/12/16

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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Escalation of commitment refers to a pattern of behavior in which an individual or group will continue to rationalize their decisions, actions, and investments when faced with increasingly negative outcomes rather than alter their course. This is an important aspect in fantasy football, as the more you invest in a player the less likely you are willing to move on and write them off as a sunk cost. This happens in nearly every league and league type, most of the time to the detriment of owners. Escalation of Commitment can take place in auction leagues, redraft leagues, and especially dynasty leagues. We will discuss how this business ideal affects different fantasy leagues later, but lets first explain escalation of commitment deeper. Escalation of commitment describes poor decision-making in business, politics, and gambling and is frequently used in psychology and sociology and can most certainly be applied to fantasy football. It can also be referred to as "irrational escalation", "irrational escalation of commitment" or "commitment bias".

 

Here is how I learned the detriment of commitment bias, in Grad School; a professor comes in with a two-dollar bill for us to bid on in a typical auction. We know that two-dollar bills are cool, and some are more rare than others, but this was hot off the press with a known value: two dollars. Now in a typical auction you should expect this bill to go for two dollars, but when you add in the main dynamic factor, that the person who finishes second in the bidding will also have to surrender money, and not receive the two dollar bill, the game changes. In this scenario, the most a reasonable person should be willing to spend is that same two dollars. In this exercise, the bidding was in increments of a quarter. So as bidding increases towards the two dollar mark, the class looks around at each other puzzled to see what would happen next, then someone surpasses it and suddenly it is a two man race, with only one prize to go around. In the end, I am the owner of a two dollar bill I spent 21 dollars on while the second party chips in $20.75 to walk away with an invaluable lesson, sometimes you just have to walk away. While I wasn’t the true winner here, that would be the professor who supplemented his income with a nearly $40 profit, the lesson learned has stuck with me to this day, much like the two dollar bill sticks to the inside of my wallet after numerous compressions.

 

Escalation of commitment can apply to nearly everything, stocks, project bidding, and even wars. Since it’s original inception, researchers have agreed on three elements of this phenomenon: “Firstly, a situation has a costly amount of resources such as time, money and people invested in the project. Next, past behavior leads up to an apex in time where the project has not met expectations or could in a cautious state of decline. Lastly, these problems all force a decision-maker to make choices that include the options of continuing to pursue a project until completion by adding additional costs, or canceling the project altogether. Now how does this apply to fantasy football? Let’s examine different types of situations in detail.

 

Auction Setting

So since I just described an auction situation you can probably see the parallel here. Every player should have a price in your mind that you will not exceed. As much as we love Julio Jones, we know that there is just a price we will not play. You have to know the point in which to walk away in order to live to fight another day. Sometimes people will create a justification for exceeding their do not exceed price, like he was the last guy in that tier, but it is really an escalation trap that you have fallen into.

 

In Season Management

While escalation to commitment arguably can’t happen in the draft setting of a typical snake draft, I’d argue otherwise as a fantasy analyst, sometimes you have to put your money where your mouth is, it is a huge component of in season management. When you spend a high draft pick on a guy, you are less likely to move on from him rather than a guy who you spent limited draft capital on whether he is performing better or not. There comes a time when you need to move on from an underperforming high round pick, while your first instinct shouldn’t be to drop, it should be to bench or see what kind of perceived value he still has in a trade, sometimes completely moving on and considering a player as a sunk cost is the best way to go about the situation. Sometimes not moving on can keep you from that end goal which is to bring home the championship.

 

Keep in mind escalation of commitment, as you get ready to take place in an auction or while making in season decisions. Sometimes you have to write off your losses and move on for the sake of bettering your team further down the line.

 

In the words of Kenny Rogers:

“You've got to know when to hold 'em, Know when to fold 'em, Know when to walk away, Know when to run."

 

 

 

 

Stagg Party graphic

by Stagg Party


  

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