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Falcons are at home against the red hot Packers for a chance to represent the NFC in Super Bowl XLI

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons - Conference Championship Round - 2016 NFL Playoffs

Posted by d-Rx on 01/19/17

by   The Archer


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Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons; Over/Under 59.5

Sunday, January 22, 2017 at 3:05pm EST


Weekly Matchups Chart for Conference Championship Packers Against WR1 & Falcons against TE1

The Green Bay Packers are the second hottest team in the league right now, rattling off eight straight wins en route to the conference championship game. Aaron Rodgers proved yet again why he is in the running for MVP yet again after a brilliant fourth quarter in which his team scored a game winning field goal with no time remaining. Rodgers has posted at least 20 fantasy points in each postseason game so far and looks like a lock to do it again with the Falcons allowing the third most fantasy points on the season to opposing passers. Ty Montgomery has been heavily involved since being names the starter and scored twice last week in short yardage situations giving his overall appeal a sizable increase. Atlanta has allowed the eighth most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season, and even better the most receptions to the position, making the converted wide receiver a strong bet to be heavily involved catching the rock. Jordy Nelson has already been declared a long shot to play this weekend, but if he does we know he is in a great matchup. If he is out, Davante Adams gets bumped up to the wide receiver one role, and the Atlanta Falcons are a middle of the road defense against opposing wide receivers. Adams has gotten ten plus targets in each of the last two games and has compiled over 200 yards receiving. Adams is also listed as questionable with an ankle injury and isn’t expecting to practice until Saturday as of this writing. Randall Cobb will also see a bump in the pecking order and has seen 15 targets over the last two weeks and scored those three touchdowns in the Wild Card round. Geronimo Allison will be Nelson’s direct replacement but is more of a dart throw then a locked in solid player, but if you are betting on something, betting against Aaron Rodgers seems unwise. The tight end position was the big difference against the Cowboys last week, Jared Cook caught six of his eleven targets for 104 yards and a touchdown and made a great sideline catch that helped decide the game on the final drive. Richard Rodgers also caught a 34-yard touchdown on the opening drive of the game. The Flacons allowed the sixth most fantasy points to opposing tight ends in the regular season so Cook should remain highly involved for another week. The Packers offense is in a great spot in a game with one of the highest over/unders all season long.


Atlanta had a statement win against the Seattle Seahawks in which many though would be much closer than the final outcome. Atlanta has rattled off five straight victories including last weeks win and over that span Matt Ryan has thrown a disgusting 14 touchdowns against no interceptions. The Green Bay Packers allowed essentially the same amount of passing yards and passing touchdowns as did the Falcons, but did force interceptions at a slightly higher rate. The Packers finished allowing the seventh most fantasy points to opposing passers and Matt Ryan should be able to exploit them like he has nearly every defense this season. Ryan torched the Packers for an 80% completion percentage, 288 yards, and three touchdowns the last time these two teams played. Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman have a slightly tough matchup on the surface as Green bay allowed the 11th fewest fantasy points to running backs on the season and kept Ezekiel Elliott out of the end zone last week. Tevin Coleman didn’t play in the game the last time these two meet while Freeman posted solid numbers because of his receiving ability. Freeman and Coleman should see plenty of carries and targets come their way against a depleted linebacking corps for the Pack. Julio Jones struggled in the Week 8 tilt catching just three of his five targets for 29 yards, but the matchup is just as good as it was then, as the Packers allowed the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers on the season. The Taylor Gabriel breakout party got started in the Week 8 tilt though as he caught three passes for 68 yards and a touchdown with Julio limping around the field. Then Gabriel proceeded to record 6 double-digit performances in his last 8 games of the season. Mohamed Sanu was the leading receiver in the last matchup however, catching nine of his ten targets for 84 yards and a score. Sanu should still see weak coverage in the slot and could have a solid under the radar showing as he has scored in two straight games. Austin Hooper, Levine Toilolo, and Josh Perkins have each seen a sprinkle of targets over the last few weeks and the group was led by Toilolo against the Seahawks last week on his way to receiving four targets. Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense are firing on all cylinders and should continue to play at a high-level against a below average defense.  




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