Week 20
January 20, 2018
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Tom Brady

New England Patriots

Tom Still Terrific?


Tom Brady was first listed on the team's injury report with an Achilles injury heading in to Week 11.
Weeks 1-10: 21.2 fantasy points per game, 110.9 passer rating
Weeks 11-17: 14.2 fantasy points per game, 87.3 passer rating

Fantasy Goo: This should line up for a good week for Brady, Tennessee is 8th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, but just below average against QB’s. The Patriots are 13 point favorites on Saturday Night, if Brady doesn’t do it at home in prime-time then something is wrong.


01/09/18, 07:30 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alvin Kamara

New Orleans Saints

Primary Role Shifting


Saints have run 5 times at/inside opponent's 5-yard line over last 4 weeks (including playoffs):
Alvin Kamara 3 carries, Zach Line 1, Mark Ingram 1. Kamara was in on all 3 Saints run plays at/inside 5 vs. Panthers last week, including Line's 1-yard TD run.

Fantasy Goo: If you’re trying to decide between Kamara and Ingram for the playoff run, Kamara looks to be the much better play.


01/09/18, 07:20 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jay Ajayi

Philadelphia Eagles

It's A Trap


Jay Ajayi (knee) is practicing in full for the Divisional Round.

Fantasy Goo: Atlanta is 5th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s this year and they are more susceptible to pass-catching backs. Todd Gurley rushed 14 times for 101 yards in the Rams' Wild Card loss to the Falcons, adding four receptions for 10 additional yards. Ajayi might have been drafted before Gurley this year, but that was clearly a mistake. Ajayi has talent, but he’s far from a good option this week.


01/09/18, 07:16 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Chris Hogan

New England Patriots

Back in Action


Chris Hogan (shoulder) is expected to return for Saturday's Divisional Round game against the Titans.

Fantasy Goo: He’s going to take a couple of weeks to get in tune with the offense, I’m looking to save him until the Super Bowl if you’re in one of those one and done fantasy playoff tournaments.


01/09/18, 07:14 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Drew Brees

New Orleans Saints

Strength vs Strength


Saints RBs led NFL during regular season in receptions (9.0) and receiving yards (77.8) per game.
Vikings held opposing RBs to fewest yards per target (4.2) and 3rd-fewest yards per game (30.6).

Fantasy Goo: The Vikings have been absolutely sick in all aspects on defense this year. If the Saints are going to pull this one out it sounds like it’s going to have to be a Brees week, I’m not so sure he’s going to be the guy you want to start on the road this week.


01/09/18, 07:12 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


LeSean McCoy

Buffalo Bills

Not The Real McCoy


LeSean McCoy said if he plays Sunday, "I want to be able to cut well enough to where I don't have a lot of pain cutting. I just want to be close, or the best as far as 100 percent as I can get. The type of game like this, you got to lay it all on the line.”

Fantasy Goo: McCoy is a poor play against the Jags this week. The Jags strength on defense is against the pass (#1 in FP allowed), but they are still strong against the rush (11th). I’m not taking any Bills on fantasy playoff squads or in DFS this week.


01/04/18, 09:29 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Derrick Henry

Tennessee Titans

Arrow Pointing Down


DeMarco Murray (knee) didn't practice again Thursday. Derrick Henry show ready to go.

Fantasy Goo: The way to attack KC is through the air, they rank 9th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s. They will most likely be in negative game script. KC hasn’t allowed any team to score over 20 points in Arrowhead all year.


01/04/18, 09:27 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Julio Jones

Atlanta Falcons

No Fly Zone


Julio Jones finished 11th in NFL in red-zone targets but caught only 5 of 19. He finished 4th in targets inside 10 but only caught 4 of 11.

Fantasy Goo: The Rams have a strong pass defense, especially against outside receivers, but are second worst in fantasy points allowed to RB’s. Freeman and Coleman are the only Falcons I am considering this week.


01/04/18, 09:25 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Kenny Golladay

Detroit Lions

Under the Radar


In the first game with TJ Jones (shoulder) on IR last week, Kenny Golladay played 95% of snaps and led DET WRs with 8 targets.

Fantasy Goo: Marvin Jones has a history of shredding the Packers defense and is a solid play at $6500 on DK, but Golladay is half the price ($3300) and will probably see a similar number of targets. If Detroit had something to play for I’d be stacking the heck out of this game, but I still think it’s smart to have one of these guys in the line-up this week.


12/31/17, 09:46 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Patrick Mahomes

Kansas City Chiefs

Rookie Debut


Patrick Mahomes was 2nd in PFF’s QB Rating when kept clean in preseason. He rushed for 744 yards, 22 TDs in his last two years at Texas Tech. Denver has allowed multiple passing TDs to six-straight QBs not named Petty or Brissett.

Fantasy Goo: The rookie was supposed to take over for Alex Smith much earlier this season, but Smith and the Chief’s came out firing on all cylinders and kept the rookie on the bench. Mahomes will get his chance this week as Smith gets a week off before the playoffs. Denver may be packing it in, but they still have one of the best defenses and I expect they will play more inspired this week against a division rival.


12/31/17, 09:32 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Wayne Gallman

New York Giants

Last Man Standing


Giants will be without Shepard (neck), Engram (ribs), and King (concussion) vs. WAS. Wayne Gallman has 9, 7, 8 target counts in last three weeks.

Fantasy Goo: Washington ranks 24th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s and Gallman is $4200 on DK. Feels like a great way to save and pay up at other positions.


12/31/17, 09:21 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alex Collins

Baltimore Ravens

Burfict Situation


Bengals LB Vontaze Burfict ruled out for game Sunday at Baltimore because of shoulder injury.

Fantasy Goo: Collins becomes a solid RB1 this week. Cincinnati’s run defense is a sieve with Burfict out.


12/31/17, 09:19 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Akeem Hunt

Houston Texans

Akeem No Dream


Charcandrick West is out Sunday vs Denver with an illness. Akeem Hunt and Kareem Hunt only RBs on active roster for KC. It would be a surprise to see Kareem play much. That means a ton of Akeem Hunt and likely some De'Anthony Thomas on passing downs.

Fantasy Goo: Akeem is min price ($3000) on DK so the definition of a free-square, but there’s a reason he’s bounced around the NFL and never earned a starting role. Denver is 5th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, I’m not rostering Akeem when there are so many other options this week.


12/31/17, 09:17 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


DeAndre Hopkins

Houston Texans

Milestone Not Worth The Risk


Bill O'Brien on DeAndre Hopkins' status: 'Probably won't know up until game time'. Typically, we might classify this as coach-speak, but Hopkins has never missed a game, and is four catches away from 100 for the season. He's probably pushing hard to play.

Fantasy Goo: This is an awesome match-up for the Houston WR’s going against a very weak Indy pass defense, but there is really no reason for Hopkins to play, especially with the calf injury. At $8400 on DK he’s just way too pricey given this news. A sneaky start might be Will Fuller at $4300, he has 5 targets in each of the past three games and is coming off some difficult match-ups. Earlier in the season he was a superstar with Watson throwing the ball, but he has always had the big play in his arsenal no matter who the QB is.


12/29/17, 10:03 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Dion Lewis

New England Patriots

Vultures Are Always Flying


James White (ankle) remained limited at Thursday's practice. White was absent for last week's win over Buffalo but should be out there against the Jets in Week 17. He ranks eighth among running backs with 56 catches this year.

Fantasy Goo: Lewis dominated last week with White and Burkhead out, even though Gillislee vultured a TD. I would imagine that White playing will take away the five receptions Lewis had last week and the Jets actually have a better rush defense than the Pats week 16 opponent (Buf). The Pats will be looking to lock-up home field advantage and won’t be resting their starters, but they will probably be looking to get everyone some work as they prep for the playoffs. Gillislee appears to be nursing a hammy and is not expected to play, but let’s not forget how White performed last year in the Super Bowl.


12/29/17, 09:47 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

Pittsburgh Steelers

Stars Sitting


The Steelers Marcus Gilbert tells reporter Tim Benz that the Steelers won't play Ben Roethlisberger or Le'Veon Bell in finale vs. Cleveland. Landry Jones will be under center for Pittsburgh and Fitzgerald Toussaint and Stevan Ridley will form a thoroughly underwhelming RB committee against the Browns.

Fantasy Goo: Underwhelming is an understatement for these two backs, a highly respected fantasy website hasn’t even updated the news on these two since the pre-season and doesn’t even recognize them as being on the team. The one player of note in this is Martavis Bryant, The Alien averages over 17 ppr points per game with Landry at the helm as opposed to 8.4 ppg with other QB’s. He also has 5 TD’s in 5 home games with Landry. Granted most of this production comes from 2015 when they worked together often in the preseason, but Bryant could be a very sneaky GPP play this week.


12/29/17, 09:23 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Jacksonville Jaguars

Play To Win The Game


Despite already being locked into the AFC's No. 3 seed, Jaguars coach Doug Marrone has no plans to rest starters in Sunday's game against the Titans. "Make no mistake about it, just so there is not a lot of talk during the week: When the players come in (Wednesday), we are talking about how we are going to play to win and do everything we possibly can to win this game, period," Marrone said. "I am not even thinking about what happens beyond that, and that is the way we are going to go about our business this week."

Fantasy Goo: I think it’s crazy of him to do, but I’m sure he has Tom Coughlin in his ear feeding him that old-school philosophy. Looks like Bortles, Fournette, Westbrook and Cole will be safe plays against a Titan’s team hoping to hold on to the sixth seed in the AFC.


12/26/17, 10:00 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

Los Angeles Rams

Resting Starters


McVay hints that there will be Rams starters “who won’t play at all” on Sunday. The Rams are already locked into either the No. 3 or 4 seed in the NFC and will host a Wild Card round playoff game.

Fantasy Goo: Gurley, Goff, Woods, all sitting this week? That’s going to destroy so many hopes and dreams for teams that rode Gurley all year.


12/26/17, 09:58 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


DeMarco Murray

Tennessee Titans

Grind It Out


Mike Mularkey said he's not ruling DeMarco Murray out just yet. He's day-to-day. The Titans are holding out hope to have him in limited role.

Fantasy Goo: They are really grinding him into the dirt if they play him this week. I didn’t see the injury, but it sounded pretty ugly from sources in the know. Keep away from him in whatever format you are playing this week, I’m giving Derick Henry a solid upgrade as the Titans are trying to hold on to the final playoff spot in the AFC.


12/26/17, 05:17 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Philadelphia Eagles

All Locked Up


Pederson on playing Foles vs. Cowboys: “I’ve got to get him as many reps as he can and then be smart about it. Obviously, we have a lot of football left. Our season is really just beginning, quite honestly. We’ll be smart.”

Fantasy Goo: This is why you don’t play a championship game in week 17. I’m staying away from the Eagles regular starters, pretty much across the board, as they have a first round bye all locked up. Guys like Blount, Clement, and Nelson Agholor might have some DFS appeal, but we have to get closer to Sunday to see what they plan on doing.


12/26/17, 05:15 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Pyromaniac.com breaks down which QBs play better at home and away - even break out how they play in division

Home Heroes & Road Warriors - Quarterbacks

Posted by d-Rx on 08/26/16

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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As the years have passed we’ve come to know the ins and outs of who to play at home and who to play on the road. Drew Brees in the Superdome is money in the bank. Yet, how closely have we been paying attention to who to play in divisional match-ups. Who shines when the lights are truly the brightest? Who’s that diamond in the rough who consistently shows up? That’s where we come in. We ran through the last three seasons of the top 23 quarterbacks according to the ADP from Fantasy Football Calculator as of August 18, 2016. From here, we’re going to look into the consistency of these quarterbacks and how well they fared on the road, how they fared at home and how they fared against divisional opponents both home and away. So Let’s begin.

 

 

Road Warriors


First we’re going to hit on the “Road Warriors” and focus our attention on some of the names that stand out as they could be interesting late round or in-season streaming options. This list was a little surprising to me seeing some of the names that sat atop the chart.

 

 

QB Away Chart

- enlarge chart -  

 

 

Tyrod Taylor

Surprisingly Tyrod Taylor sits atop this list with an impressive median of 22 fantasy points. Albeit a small sample size because it was only his first year as a starting quarterback. He still managed to score 18 or more fantasy points in five of his seven away games. Tyrod is a very nice sleeper considering his ADP of the 15th quarterback taken off the board. Yet he was scoring on a per game basis as the 8th best quarterback last year and was averaging more rushing yards per game than Cam Newton. Tyrod may not have shown a high ceiling in his first year but don’t knock him for his consistency on the road.

 


Eli Manning

This one came as a bit of a shocker but Eli ranks as the least consistent road quarterback out of these 23, failing to break 15 fantasy points 17 of his 25 road games in the past 3 years. In 10 of those 17 road games, he also failed to break 10 fantasy points. Even if he does have arguably one of the best wide receivers in the game, it's hard to argue for taking Eli to be a potential Road Warrior for your team.

 


Let’s Get Divisional

Next up is the Divisional Road Warriors. The guys who year after year go into their competition’s building and rightfully claims it as their own. The quarterbacks that have ice in their veins and put fear in their enemies’ eyes. So here we go:

 


Away Divisional Chart for QBs

- enlarge chart -  

 

 

Aaron Rodgers

I mean c’mon, are we shocked? Aaron Rodgers has tamed the Lions and Bears, while shipwrecking the Vikings year in and year out. The poster quarterback of the NFC North. He has scored at least 17 fantasy points in 7 of his 8 divisional road games. Although he doesn't really blow the doors off of his divisional opponents, his stat lines warrant enough to call him the most consistent Divisional Road Warrior.

 


Tom Brady

I bet you're completely surprised seeing Tom Brady ranked so low in this category. Tom Brady has played 9 road games against divisional opponents in the last three years. He has only scored above 20 fantasy points 3 of those 9 games, two of those games were against the Bills. He also failed to score at least 12 fantasy points in five of those nine games. Never scoring above 12 fantasy points against the Jets. I wouldn't push my luck playing Tom Brady against any team other than the Bills in the AFC East.

 


Home Heroes


Now this is what you came here for, the cream of the crop. The quarterbacks that do their best Under Armour impression of protecting their house. The granddaddy of all fantasy football scoring quarterbacks. The Home Heroes.

 


QB at Home Chart

- enlarge chart

 

 

Drew Brees

Death, Taxes and Drew Brees lighting up the Superdome. The three things guaranteed in life. It’s really no surprise that Brees tops this list. Brees has played 24 home games in the last 3 years, he has scored at least 16 fantasy points in 19 of those 24 games. He has scored at least 20 fantasy points in 13 of the 24 games. The most consistent quarterback at home and one of the most consistent quarterbacks in fantasy football you can't go wrong with taking him at his current ADP of the 5th quarterback taken off the board.

 


Joe Flacco

Flacco year to year always seems to get a pass in regards to his performances because he’s a “high volume” passer. But being one of the lower quarterbacks in home game consistency shows we cut him a little too much slack. Flacco has been a 50/50 shot to break 15 fantasy points at home in the past 3 years, with 10 games of each. Even given his ADP of the 23rd quarterback off the board, he really isn't a streamable option with some of the other options that could be available in the middle of the season waiver wire wise.

 


Let’s Get Divisional

Lastly we have the divisional Home Heroes. Here we will take a look at which quarterbacks rise to the top when faced with adversity going against the hated rivals of their divisions. This list in particular got my attention. With guys recently thrown to the dirt like Matt Ryan and Matthew Stafford nearing the top of the list, both guys featured as an undervalued asset in Stagg’s 2016 QB ADP Expectations piece. And fantasy favorites like Tom Brady and Philip Rivers nearing the bottom. From here we’ll dive into a couple of those names.

 

 

QB Home Divisional Chart

 - enlarge chart -

 

 

Matthew Stafford

Matthew Stafford in my opinion is criminally underrated this year. Since the year 2010, Stafford's worst finish has been quarterback 15 out of quarterbacks sub-34 years old, only 3 have finished as a top 12 QB 4 of the last 5 years. To put this into context, 0 have finished as a top 12 quarterback 5 of the last 5 years. Those 3 quarterbacks, Cam Newton, Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford. That's some elite company. A complete bargain at his current ADP of the 16th quarterback off the board according to Fantasy Football Calculator. But let’s hit on his divisional finishes really quick. Stafford has played 8 divisional games at home in the last 3 years. He has finished with at least 16 fantasy points in 6 of those 8 divisional games, leaving him as one of the most consistent Divisional Home Heroes.

 

 

Philip Rivers

Since we had already hit on Tom Brady above, I decided to take a look at Philip Rivers with this outlook. Philip Rivers in the last 3 years has played 9 divisional games at home. The AFC West is arguably the best defensive conference in the AFC which doesn't help Philip’s case but in those 9 games he failed to surpassed 15 fantasy points 7 out of the 9 games. That is pretty crazy considering most see Rivers as a valuable fantasy option and a potential sleeper at quarterback. If you plan on drafting him, I’d look elsewhere during divisional games.

 


What is streaming and how does it work?

Streaming quarterbacks or waiting on a quarterback can be a number of different things in different people’s eyes. To me waiting on a quarterback is waiting to draft a quarterback until at least the double digit rounds. From here I’ll choose a guy with high upside (Allah Tyrod Taylor or Jameis Winston) or someone who has a nice set of weeks to start the season (Allah Derek Carr.) The whole idea of streaming a quarterback isn’t about streaming a different option week in and week out and playing the different match-ups. The idea is to pick a potential gem that hits and works his way into being a valuable starter for you. For me, that guy last year was Andy Dalton. Andy Dalton last year had an ADP of the 17th quarterback off the board but never played like the 17th quarterback, lighting up week after week to start the season. This is what streaming and waiting on a quarterback is all about.

 

 

Although I wouldn't completely throw drafting an early round quarterback out the window. I’m always willing to listen at the right price. Drew Brees in the 5th round has been a very common target for myself. I’m available on Twitter anytime to answer any quarterback questions you may have. Until then, I’ll catch you guys later.

 

 

 

by PyroLytics 

 

 

 

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