June 21, 2018


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Tyreek Hill

Kansas City Chiefs

Hill lookin' busty with chiefs new look.

Tyreek Hill had a great 2017, amounting 75 receptions for 1183 yards and 7 touchdowns in 15 games. He’s currently being drafted in the middle of the third round in standard leagues, which would appear to be a great value. However, with promoted RB coach Eric Bieniemy presumably in-line to be the primary play caller, a new QB, Travis Kelce receiving the #1 target share and the addition of Sammy Watkins, I expect Hill’s numbers to decrease dramatically.
I believe Hill to be more of a boom or bust player this year. There’s no denying his break-away speed and ability to separate from defenders, and with Mahomes cannon of an arm, I expect them to connect deep on occasion. However, I believe Sammy Watkins to be the more complete receiver and likely to take more of the target share from Hill. Bundled with the change in offensive strategy toward the end of last year to run the ball more, the change to a young QB presumably resulting in a more conservative game plan, I see a major decline in the amount of touches Hill will get and see him as more of a 5-6 round flex play guy.

06/21/18, 10:54 AM CDT by C-wags


Eric Ebron

Detroit Lions

Ebron Could Use Some Luck

Colts signed TE Eric Ebron, formerly of the Lions, to a two-year contract. Coach Frank Reich called Ebron an "elite tight end."

The last time we saw Andrew Luck healthy (2016), the Colts used 2+ TE sets at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL and had the 6th-highest target share to TEs.

04/01/18, 11:32 AM CDT by Wheeler


Carlos Hyde

San Francisco 49ers

Hyde and Seek

Browns agreed to terms with RB Carlos Hyde, formerly of the 49ers, on a three-year, $15 million contract.

Obtaining Hyde has several trickle-down effects; first it replaces Crowell who signed with the Jets, it probably diminishes Duke Johnson’s value a bit. Hyde is a better all-around back than Crowell was and will certainly take over the goal-line work seeing that he’s got 20+ pounds on Duke. It also reduces the likelihood that Cleveland takes Saquon Barkley with the 4th pick in the draft. They will most likely look to draft a defensive player (Chubb) or trade down again.

04/01/18, 11:28 AM CDT by Wheeler


Jerick McKinnon

Minnesota Vikings

McKinnon Goes West For Gold-Rush

49ers agreed to terms with RB Jerick McKinnon, formerly of the Vikings, on a four-year, $30 million contract.

McKinnon averaged a ho-hum 3.8 yards a carry for the Vikings and scored three rushing touchdowns. By contrast, San Francisco's former lead runner, Carlos Hyde, averaged 3.9 yards an attempt in 2017 and had eight rushing touchdowns.

It appears as though Shanahan is enamored with McKinnon's athletic metrics, but I'm not so sure he was "pounding the table" to get him. This move could push the Niner's to cut Joe Williams.

04/01/18, 11:12 AM CDT by Wheeler


Mike Wallace

Baltimore Ravens

Eagles Keep Improving

Eagles signed WR Mike Wallace to a one-year contract.
Mike Wallace can still move posting a top five max speed among wide receivers last season. He will fill the void left by Torrey Smith as a speed vertical threat.

04/01/18, 11:08 AM CDT by Wheeler


Terrelle Pryor

Washington Redskins

Jets Searching For Weapons

Jets agreed to terms with WR Terrelle Pryor, formerly of Washington and Cleveland.

Second year in a row on a new team doesn’t really help Pryor's cause, but I like the idea of him on the field with Teddy Bridgewater at some point. I would imagine, with some creativity, the Jets could really design some innovative gadget plays.
The Jets receiving corps really looks like a bunch of question marks at this point though, no telling what the week-to-week outcome will be with these guys.
Jermaine Kearse: 65 catches, 810 yards, 5 touchdowns (2017)
Robby Anderson: 63 catches, 941 yards, 7 touchdowns (2017)
Quincy Enunwa: 58 catches, 857 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)
Terrelle Pryor: 77 catches, 1007 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)

04/01/18, 11:04 AM CDT by Wheeler


Carlos Henderson

Denver Broncos

Sleeper Watch

Broncos coach Vance Joseph said the team is "counting on" Carlos Henderson making an impact in 2018.

If you are paying attention to Staggs projections there is plenty of opportunity for Henderson to step into a solid number of targets in the slot. Henderson was hindered by injury and awful QB play last year. Being drafted in the 18th round or later in best-ball leagues, Henderson is the late round flyer that should be on your radar.

04/01/18, 11:00 AM CDT by Wheeler


Ben Watson

Baltimore Ravens

Watson Returns To Big Easy

Saints signed TE Ben Watson, formerly of the Ravens, to a one-year contract.

Watson had 74 catches on 110 targets for 825 yards and 6 TD’s when he was with the Saints in 2015. After missing 2016 he had a pretty good year with Baltimore last year despite an anemic offense, with 61 catches on 79 targets for 522 yards and 4 TD’s. He’s not a bad late round flyer TE. He’s basically free right now, but I expect by the time the season starts he’ll be being drafted within the top 20 at the position.

04/01/18, 10:54 AM CDT by Wheeler


Jeff Janis

Green Bay Packers

Janis Truthers Challenged

Browns officially signed former Packers’ WR Jeff Janis.
The combine superstar never amounted to anything in Green Bay, I highly doubt Cleveland is the place for him to finally break-out.

04/01/18, 10:50 AM CDT by Wheeler


Thomas Rawls

Seattle Seahawks

Jets Sign Rawls

Rawls had five RB1 games in 2015, one in 2016, and has been a disappointment since. He’s not worth your time in fantasy, but he could cause enough disruption in the Jets backfield to cut any upside we might have hoped for from Isaiah Crowell.

04/01/18, 10:48 AM CDT by Wheeler


Allen Robinson

Jacksonville Jaguars

Coo coo ca choo Mr. Robinson

Bears signed WR Allen Robinson, formerly of the Jaguars, to a three-year, $42 million contract.

This is a great move for Robinson and Chicago. Nagy’s offense and the young QB, Trubiski, should benefit Robinson at least as much as Bortles did, and Chicago gets the top WR in free agency.
Everyone on the team will be in a new scheme so there will be an adjustment, but as they start to gel we should see a big second half. Robinson’s recovery from a torn ACL doesn’t scare me away from drafting him in the late third/early fourth, his current MFL10 ADP is 43 overall while his Draft app ADP is 59.9. I expect Robinson to be somewhere in the range of 75 receptions, for 1100 yards and 8 TD’s.

03/24/18, 08:25 PM CDT by Wheeler


Sammy Watkins

Los Angeles Rams

KC Building Strong Air Attack

Chiefs signed Sammy Watkins, formerly of the Rams, to a three-year, $48 million contract.

I’m a big Sammy truther so getting him in the 5th or 6th round is a pure power move. His current Draft app ADP of 87.1 is an absolute steal, his MFL10 ADP of 69.5 is still a great value in my opinion. There are quite a few options for high targets in KC so I don’t expect him to see the 128 targets he saw his rookie year, but he should definitely see more than the 70 he saw last year. He’ll have an entire offseason to work with the near-rookie QB, and at age 25 he should have enough burst left to have a 70 catch, 1050 yd, 8TD line. For his career he has 16 receptions on 30 targets for 12 TD’s in the Red Zone, and 9 receptions on 13 targets, for 8 TD’s inside the opponents 10. He should be the exact WR the Chiefs need to get over the hump. As a team the Chiefs were 34/75 for 13 TD’s in the Red-Zone last year and 12/24 for 10 TD inside the 10.

03/24/18, 08:19 PM CDT by Wheeler


Kirk Cousins

Washington Redskins

Vikings Like That

Kirk Cousins plans to sign a three-year, fully-guaranteed contract from the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday. The deal is believed to be for around $86 million, and reports are it will be fully-guaranteed, a landmark for an NFL free agent.

Should be a lateral move for Kirk as far as fantasy, better WR’s, but fewer passes thrown in this offense. A healthy Dalvin Cook should be able to run out the clock if they are up in the second half of games and take the ball out of Cousins hands near the end zone. It should also help the overall efficiency of the offense so all in all it increases his floor, but cuts any garbage-time production we’ve seen with Washington. Kyle Rudolph becomes a big benefactor here, Cousins loves his TE, especially near the end-zone.

03/24/18, 08:16 PM CDT by Wheeler


Case Keenum

Minnesota Vikings

Denver Makes Case

Broncos signed QB Case Keenum, formerly of the Vikings, to a two-year, $36 million contract.

Well, I was hoping for more than a bridge QB for my favorite WR (D. Thomas), but this is a definite upgrade from the three stooges Denver put behind center last year.

03/24/18, 08:13 PM CDT by Wheeler


LeGarrette Blount

Philadelphia Eagles

Detroit Sparks Up Blount

The Lions signed free agent RB LeGarrette Blount to a 1-year deal worth $4.5M. He’s back with Matt Patricia, as the New England ties are strong.

The Lions have needed a true goal-line/power-back for years. I expect Blount to get between 150-200 touches and all the short-yardage carries. Detroit’s offense doesn’t really fit what Blount brings to the table, but I expect Patricia will have some influence over how the offense will operate from here-on-out.

03/24/18, 08:10 PM CDT by Wheeler


Cleveland Browns

Money Ball: The Sequel

Hate to start out the offseason with the Cleveland Browns, but they are makin’ moves!
Browns acquired: Tyrod Taylor, Jarvis Landry, Damarious Randall
Browns gave up: 2018 3rd-round pick (No. 65), 2018 4th-round pick, 2019 7th-round pick, DeShone Kizer

Building with experienced quality performers that have something to prove, by selling inconsequential draft picks is exactly what Sashi Brown was building up for. It’s a shame he won’t be around to reap the rewards, but these are quality moves for a win-now mentality.

03/09/18, 09:37 PM CST by Wheeler


Tyrod Taylor

Buffalo Bills

Hue Looks To TyGoat

Browns left tackle Joe Thomas, who's pondering his future, is a fan of Tyrod Taylor and has said so on the ThomaHawk Show podcast.

Tyrod is just one season removed (2016) from being the QB11 in average fantasy ppg, including seven 20+ point weeks and six 15+ point weeks. Given the current talent on the O-line and skill position weapons he could improve on those numbers. He has the potential to be this year’s Alex Smith, definitely heading my late-round (12+) QB picks now.

03/09/18, 09:32 PM CST by Wheeler


Deshone Kizer

Cleveland Browns

Packers Get In On The Fun

The Packers have traded for QB DeShone Kizer from the Browns to Green Bay.

This is the best possible scenario for Kizer, who was thrown into the fire last season. Getting the chance to develop and learn behind the best in the business is the best chance he has for longevity.

03/09/18, 09:30 PM CST by Wheeler


Torrey Smith

Philadelphia Eagles

On The Move Again

The Eagles trade WR Torrey Smith to the Panthers for CB Daryl Worley. Torrey Smith could fill the old Ted Ginn role which makes this fairly interesting. Stagg Party says it’s more of a boost for Cam than Torrey himself.

This is an absolute perfect fit, someone who isn’t going to demand the ball, but can take the top off a defense while McCaffrey, Olsen, and Cam work underneath. Torrey is looking like a great late-round flyer.

03/09/18, 09:28 PM CST by Wheeler


DeMarco Murray

Tennessee Titans

Henry Hype Train Has Clear Track

DeMarco Murray was released by the Titans.
No surprise here, expect Derick Henry to be a lead back with 250+ touches, but they will bring in someone that will play the third-down, pass-catching role out of the backfield. I wouldn’t be surprised if they sign someone like Jerick McKinnon or Rex Burkhead, or even Darren Sproles or Charles Sims. There are also plenty of options in the NFL draft, Henry won’t be a true “Bell Cow.”

03/09/18, 09:17 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: breaks down which QBs play better at home and away - even break out how they play in division

Home Heroes & Road Warriors - Quarterbacks

Posted by d-Rx on 08/26/16

by   The Archer


More Articals


As the years have passed we’ve come to know the ins and outs of who to play at home and who to play on the road. Drew Brees in the Superdome is money in the bank. Yet, how closely have we been paying attention to who to play in divisional match-ups. Who shines when the lights are truly the brightest? Who’s that diamond in the rough who consistently shows up? That’s where we come in. We ran through the last three seasons of the top 23 quarterbacks according to the ADP from Fantasy Football Calculator as of August 18, 2016. From here, we’re going to look into the consistency of these quarterbacks and how well they fared on the road, how they fared at home and how they fared against divisional opponents both home and away. So Let’s begin.



Road Warriors

First we’re going to hit on the “Road Warriors” and focus our attention on some of the names that stand out as they could be interesting late round or in-season streaming options. This list was a little surprising to me seeing some of the names that sat atop the chart.



QB Away Chart

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Tyrod Taylor

Surprisingly Tyrod Taylor sits atop this list with an impressive median of 22 fantasy points. Albeit a small sample size because it was only his first year as a starting quarterback. He still managed to score 18 or more fantasy points in five of his seven away games. Tyrod is a very nice sleeper considering his ADP of the 15th quarterback taken off the board. Yet he was scoring on a per game basis as the 8th best quarterback last year and was averaging more rushing yards per game than Cam Newton. Tyrod may not have shown a high ceiling in his first year but don’t knock him for his consistency on the road.


Eli Manning

This one came as a bit of a shocker but Eli ranks as the least consistent road quarterback out of these 23, failing to break 15 fantasy points 17 of his 25 road games in the past 3 years. In 10 of those 17 road games, he also failed to break 10 fantasy points. Even if he does have arguably one of the best wide receivers in the game, it's hard to argue for taking Eli to be a potential Road Warrior for your team.


Let’s Get Divisional

Next up is the Divisional Road Warriors. The guys who year after year go into their competition’s building and rightfully claims it as their own. The quarterbacks that have ice in their veins and put fear in their enemies’ eyes. So here we go:


Away Divisional Chart for QBs

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Aaron Rodgers

I mean c’mon, are we shocked? Aaron Rodgers has tamed the Lions and Bears, while shipwrecking the Vikings year in and year out. The poster quarterback of the NFC North. He has scored at least 17 fantasy points in 7 of his 8 divisional road games. Although he doesn't really blow the doors off of his divisional opponents, his stat lines warrant enough to call him the most consistent Divisional Road Warrior.


Tom Brady

I bet you're completely surprised seeing Tom Brady ranked so low in this category. Tom Brady has played 9 road games against divisional opponents in the last three years. He has only scored above 20 fantasy points 3 of those 9 games, two of those games were against the Bills. He also failed to score at least 12 fantasy points in five of those nine games. Never scoring above 12 fantasy points against the Jets. I wouldn't push my luck playing Tom Brady against any team other than the Bills in the AFC East.


Home Heroes

Now this is what you came here for, the cream of the crop. The quarterbacks that do their best Under Armour impression of protecting their house. The granddaddy of all fantasy football scoring quarterbacks. The Home Heroes.


QB at Home Chart

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Drew Brees

Death, Taxes and Drew Brees lighting up the Superdome. The three things guaranteed in life. It’s really no surprise that Brees tops this list. Brees has played 24 home games in the last 3 years, he has scored at least 16 fantasy points in 19 of those 24 games. He has scored at least 20 fantasy points in 13 of the 24 games. The most consistent quarterback at home and one of the most consistent quarterbacks in fantasy football you can't go wrong with taking him at his current ADP of the 5th quarterback taken off the board.


Joe Flacco

Flacco year to year always seems to get a pass in regards to his performances because he’s a “high volume” passer. But being one of the lower quarterbacks in home game consistency shows we cut him a little too much slack. Flacco has been a 50/50 shot to break 15 fantasy points at home in the past 3 years, with 10 games of each. Even given his ADP of the 23rd quarterback off the board, he really isn't a streamable option with some of the other options that could be available in the middle of the season waiver wire wise.


Let’s Get Divisional

Lastly we have the divisional Home Heroes. Here we will take a look at which quarterbacks rise to the top when faced with adversity going against the hated rivals of their divisions. This list in particular got my attention. With guys recently thrown to the dirt like Matt Ryan and Matthew Stafford nearing the top of the list, both guys featured as an undervalued asset in Stagg’s 2016 QB ADP Expectations piece. And fantasy favorites like Tom Brady and Philip Rivers nearing the bottom. From here we’ll dive into a couple of those names.



QB Home Divisional Chart

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Matthew Stafford

Matthew Stafford in my opinion is criminally underrated this year. Since the year 2010, Stafford's worst finish has been quarterback 15 out of quarterbacks sub-34 years old, only 3 have finished as a top 12 QB 4 of the last 5 years. To put this into context, 0 have finished as a top 12 quarterback 5 of the last 5 years. Those 3 quarterbacks, Cam Newton, Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford. That's some elite company. A complete bargain at his current ADP of the 16th quarterback off the board according to Fantasy Football Calculator. But let’s hit on his divisional finishes really quick. Stafford has played 8 divisional games at home in the last 3 years. He has finished with at least 16 fantasy points in 6 of those 8 divisional games, leaving him as one of the most consistent Divisional Home Heroes.



Philip Rivers

Since we had already hit on Tom Brady above, I decided to take a look at Philip Rivers with this outlook. Philip Rivers in the last 3 years has played 9 divisional games at home. The AFC West is arguably the best defensive conference in the AFC which doesn't help Philip’s case but in those 9 games he failed to surpassed 15 fantasy points 7 out of the 9 games. That is pretty crazy considering most see Rivers as a valuable fantasy option and a potential sleeper at quarterback. If you plan on drafting him, I’d look elsewhere during divisional games.


What is streaming and how does it work?

Streaming quarterbacks or waiting on a quarterback can be a number of different things in different people’s eyes. To me waiting on a quarterback is waiting to draft a quarterback until at least the double digit rounds. From here I’ll choose a guy with high upside (Allah Tyrod Taylor or Jameis Winston) or someone who has a nice set of weeks to start the season (Allah Derek Carr.) The whole idea of streaming a quarterback isn’t about streaming a different option week in and week out and playing the different match-ups. The idea is to pick a potential gem that hits and works his way into being a valuable starter for you. For me, that guy last year was Andy Dalton. Andy Dalton last year had an ADP of the 17th quarterback off the board but never played like the 17th quarterback, lighting up week after week to start the season. This is what streaming and waiting on a quarterback is all about.



Although I wouldn't completely throw drafting an early round quarterback out the window. I’m always willing to listen at the right price. Drew Brees in the 5th round has been a very common target for myself. I’m available on Twitter anytime to answer any quarterback questions you may have. Until then, I’ll catch you guys later.




by PyroLytics 




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