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February 19, 2019
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RT @CNET: NASA citizen scientist discovers first ancient dead star with peculiar rings. https://t.co/6lnwKhvM1a https://t.co/QbxEmhG4NY


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@JhawkChalk89 Full, sorry


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@theDude_Z @friscojosh Sorry man, just trying to help you catch it early!


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RT @clip_cast: The @GOATdistrict team discusses the Flacco trade. I didn’t realize that he has never made a Pro Bowl. Check out… https://t.co/m2RE6c7qrt


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@FF_Monsters @TodfromPa now you're in MM! Tod going to join us?


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@fantasymojo @TangoandCashFF yes, guess that's a major detail to leave out, my bad. Still felt like TE's were flyin… https://t.co/zxDVJ8R9Ug


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RT @FranchiseKF: This Mike Leach quote on the NFL, KK, and the air raid has me dying https://t.co/pD6FrGMF9E


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@theDude_Z @friscojosh Targets per gamge is my favorite so far.


12:42 AM, Feb 20, 2019

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RT @JuMosq: Most receiving yards by a rookie wide receiver taken pick #174+ in this CBA: 1) Marquez Valdes-Scantling: 581 2)… https://t.co/R9eKHeudKN


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@FF_Fugazi @FF_Wheeler Yeah, not a gigantic difference for me.


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Awe man, a missed career opportunity for sure... #LifesRegrets https://t.co/GJfzJvPBry


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Big fan of @FantasyPros changing their default expert accuracy rankings contest to half-point PPR. https://t.co/goBNklRZl1


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I have a super neat idea for a 60-team competition this season. I just hope 59 of you will be on board to make it h… https://t.co/yepxZawzVn


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Three years ago, #AAF star Charles Johnson of the @aafAPOLLOS did a @reddit_AMA that spoke volumes to his passion &… https://t.co/qUbNG57Qu5


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As a Nick Chubb owner. This sux! https://t.co/2x8eV6Tn0g


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RT @jetswhispers: ESPN's Adam Schefter announced the Jets are finalizing deal with Gregg Williams to become their defensive coordinator.


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Antonio Gates is a Road Warrior at Tight End, see who are the home heroes

Home Heroes & Road Warriors - Tight Ends

Posted by d-Rx on 08/29/16

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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Looking Deeper at Tight Ends

 

            Rob Gronkowski. Jordan Reed. Greg Olsen. We know who the best of the best are. But if you draft and value players like me, then you are not going to pay the price tag to get one of those three. Gronk is being drafted in the late 1st or early 2nd round while Reed and Olsen are being drafted as top 50 players off the board. While you may miss out one of the top tight ends in the league by waiting until the middle to late rounds to grab one, streaming those later round tight ends based on home/road splits may give your team the edge to bring home the gold. So let us take a deeper look into the top 24 tight ends based on ADP from Fantasy Pros as of August 25, 2016. We are going to dig into the home/road splits for them and also dig into how they performed against their divisional opponents so we can give you the Home Heroes and Road Warriors.

 

 

Road Warriors

            We all know how successful players like Drew Brees are when they put on the pads and play in front of the home crowd. It takes a special player to perform at the highest level on the road in front of a hostile crowd. Let’s look at the tight ends and see who could be a solid streaming candidate or late round pick when their teams are on the road.

 


Road Warriors TEs - Away Games Chart

- enlarge chart -

 


Jimmy Graham

            I know, I know. Jimmy Graham looked awful and only played in 11 games in 2015. The transition from super powered offense in New Orleans to the conservative, smash mouth style in Seattle did not translate to the red zone targets and being the obvious choice for quarterback Russell Wilson to target. But even with the drop in production and the season ending injury, Graham finished as the tight end 17. Graham was definitely the number one target last year in Seattle before his injury, averaging over 6 targets per game. With a median score of 9.45 points scored on the road over the last three seasons, Graham has shown the ability to play at a high level in hostile environments. Only Gronkowski has a better median score. Seattle showed the willingness to open up the playbook last year after a slew of injuries made them change their game plan. If Pete Carroll allows Wilson to keep throwing the ball like they did at the end of season and Graham can stay on the field, expect Graham to bounce back in 2016.

  

 

Dwayne Allen

It should be no surprise to anyone following football that Allen has the worst median score of the 24 tight ends being drafted. With a median score of 1.4 and a ceiling score of 12.4 points in standard leagues over the last three years, Allen hasn’t even been on the radar as a potential streaming option. Allen has been plagued by injuries as he has never played a full season in his career, and hasn’t played more than 12 games in a year for the past three seasons. The Colts showed their confidence in Allen this offseason when they decided to let Fleener walk, and that should open the door for Allen to produce. Andrew Luck targeted his tight ends 168 times in 2014 and Allen saw 50 of those. Even though Allen has not produced at the level that we all would like to see in our tight ends, this will be his year to show what he can do.

 


Divisional Road Dogs

When you play the other teams in your division twice a year, it is safe to say you need big time performances on the road to ensure victory. The pressure is doubled when those road games against division opponents could get your team playing for the championship or at home watching from the couch. Let us take a look at a couple of Divisional Road Dogs

 


Road Warriors at Tight Ends - Away Divisional Chart
- enlarge chart -

 

 

Antonio Gates

The San Diego Charger great is back for one more season. And it should be a historical one at that because Gates is 8 touchdowns away from breaking Tony Gonzalez’s all-time record for tight ends. He has proven over the years to be a favorite target for Philip Rivers, recording a median score of 7.85 points on the road and an impressive 7.4 points against his divisional foes on the road. In 2015, he only scored 1 touchdown against division foes on the road but starting the season healthy and being on the same page on the target for the end of season with his quarterback Gates looks to bounce back to top 10 tight end status. His current ADP at tight end 11 and 100 overall makes Gates a late round pick that will pay off with top 10 finish barring injuries.

 

 

Ladarius Green

Ladarius Green up to this point in his career was the back-up to Antonio Gates in San Diego. And it looks like his first extended chance to be the number one tight end for a team (Pittsburgh) could be put on hold with nagging injuries keeping him off the field for most of training camp. The conflicting reports of ankle injury or headaches raise an even bigger red flag. In his limited playing time, Green never showed his true potential finishing the last three years with a median score of 2.3 fantasy points scored. While he was brought to the Steelers to take over for Heath Miller, it doesn’t look like Green will produce much this season. Nothing more than a really late round flier or a waiver wire pickup once news of his health start clearing up.

 


Hometown Heroes

Players like to ball out for the home crowd. Nothing better than scoring that touchdown and listening to the thousands in the stands cheer your name. Some experience that rush more than others and it’s time to give those players their dues. When looking to stream a position like tight end, it is very important to look at how these tight ends perform when the lights of the local stadium are shining on their face.

 

 

Home Heroes at Tight End - home Games

 - enlarge chart -

 

 

Julius Thomas

Thomas came on strong in 2013 with the Denver Broncos as the top tight end option in that high powered offense. Peyton Manning has always enjoyed a pass catching tight end and Thomas filled the role amazingly giving Thomas the chance to sign a big free agent contract to join the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2015. While his first year with Blake Bortles didn’t quite live up to expectations that most fantasy owners had (including myself), we know Thomas performs at his best when he is at home. Since his breakout year of 2013 Thomas has a median score of 9.5 fantasy points in all home games played. Thomas also saw the second most targets in a season of his career. 4 of his 5 touchdowns last year came at home and he looks to become a red zone threat for that offense. One more training camp and work out with Bortles should create that chemistry that will allow Thomas to beat out his ADP as the 9th tight end off the board and 97 player taken overall.    

 


Gary Barnidge

I could have easily used this space to talk about Ladarius Green or Dwayne Allen again, but that is not the type of person I am. So let us talk about another tight end, one who came on strong last year on a bad team: Gary Barnidge. While Barnidge finished last year as the number 2 tight end in standard scoring leagues, he also saw an incredible increase in targets and touchdowns. 9 of his 12 career touchdowns came last year and the 125 targets seen last year is exactly 100 targets more than his next best season. Overall over the last 3 seasons, Barnidge has only averaged 2.9 fantasy points at home. He hasn’t shown the consistency to be a top tight end and his career numbers expect huge regression. His ADP of tight end 8 and 79th overall player will be hard for Barnidge to succeed with. Don’t be fooled by his one great season, let us see another year of production before we name him a Hometown Hero.

 


Honorable Mention: Coby Fleener

Coby Fleener served as the primary receiving TE for the Colts the last three years and that earned him a big payday in New Orleans. It is common knowledge that Drew Brees and that offense are always clicking on all cylinders when playing in the Super Dome. Fleener is a better replacement than Ben Watson was last year for Jimmy Graham and should be able to produce at a TE5 or better clip. Not many chances will be had to stream him but if you pay the price to draft Fleener, watch him early this season to see how he fits in with that offense.

 


Home Versus Divisional Opponents

 We know the drill by now. Win all the home games and steal a couple on the road, you will more than likely be seeing the playoffs. These players play big in the biggest home games: the games against their division rivals. Let’s get a couple of names to talk about that we could exploit their matchups.

 

 

Home heroes for tight ends - home divisional chart

- enlarge chart

 


Jason Witten

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Jason Witten has been Tony Romo’s favorite target over the time. Witten has been a staple in that Dallas offense, and with the Cowboys looking to go back to power run game, the passing attack should open back up for Witten. Witten over the last three years has compiled an average score of 11.8 fantasy points scored when playing home games against division opponents. 2015 is the perfect example of this. All three of his touchdowns last year came against division rivals Giants and Redskins while playing in the confines of AT&T Stadium. Now that the news of Romo’s back injury has been released, I expect Dak Prescott to rely heavily on Witten and a healthy Dez Bryant in the passing game. Witten has the floor you look for at a very volatile position and with a rookie quarterback or an older player looking to avoid the big hit at the helm of that offense, Witten could easily improve on his 2015 numbers that saw him end as the tight end 12. His ADP of 14th tight end of the board and the 129th overall player drafted could easily turn into the steal of the draft that gives you that consistency every single week that could give you fantasy gold. Especially when at home against the NFC East.



Eric Ebron

Calvin Johnson is no longer suiting up for the Detroit Lions. No more feeding the best wide receiver the league has seen in a long time. So what does this mean for the Lions passing game? It should mean that Ebron, Tate, and Jones are going to be asked to step up and fill those legendary shoes. And while Tate and Jones on the outside look to be a potent duo for Stafford, Ebron hasn’t shown as much. Whether it be because of health issues- having never played a full 16 game season- or concerns that his head just is not in the game Ebron has not lived up to his draft position the last couple of seasons. He scored on average a lousy 2.3 fantasy points when playing at home against divisional opponents to go with a 2.55 average in ALL home games. While the Lions are looking for him to fill the red zone role left by Johnson, he has not done much this training camp to build that rapport with Stafford, who is one of the best fantasy options at home. Being drafted as the 198th player off the board and the 19th tight end is a low risk price that could lead to some streaming capabilities if Ebron and Stafford show some chemistry.  

 


Now while these players listed have all been highlighted for many reasons, we can't forget to be diligent in watching new trends and new information. Ebron could step up and come off this list. Graham could not show any improvements and no longer be in favor with Russell. For all the latest news and advice, reach out through Twitter. Follow me at @LouieMac8 and make sure to always check Pyromaniac for the latest information.  

 

 


by Louie Mac

 

 

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