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Tyreek Hill
Kansas City Chiefs
Hill lookin' busty with chiefs new look.
Tyreek Hill had a great 2017, amounting 75 receptions for 1183 yards and 7 touchdowns in 15 games. He’s currently being drafted in the middle of the third round in standard leagues, which would appear to be a great value. However, with promoted RB coach Eric Bieniemy presumably in-line to be the primary play caller, a new QB, Travis Kelce receiving the #1 target share and the addition of Sammy Watkins, I expect Hill’s numbers to decrease dramatically.
I believe Hill to be more of a boom or bust player this year. There’s no denying his break-away speed and ability to separate from defenders, and with Mahomes cannon of an arm, I expect them to connect deep on occasion. However, I believe Sammy Watkins to be the more complete receiver and likely to take more of the target share from Hill. Bundled with the change in offensive strategy toward the end of last year to run the ball more, the change to a young QB presumably resulting in a more conservative game plan, I see a major decline in the amount of touches Hill will get and see him as more of a 5-6 round flex play guy.
06/21/18, 10:54 AM CDT by C-wags
Source: pyromaniac.com
Eric Ebron
Detroit Lions
Ebron Could Use Some Luck
Colts signed TE Eric Ebron, formerly of the Lions, to a two-year contract. Coach Frank Reich called Ebron an "elite tight end."
The last time we saw Andrew Luck healthy (2016), the Colts used 2+ TE sets at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL and had the 6th-highest target share to TEs.
04/01/18, 11:32 AM CDT by Wheeler
Source: twitter.com
Carlos Hyde
San Francisco 49ers
Hyde and Seek
Browns agreed to terms with RB Carlos Hyde, formerly of the 49ers, on a three-year, $15 million contract.
Obtaining Hyde has several trickle-down effects; first it replaces Crowell who signed with the Jets, it probably diminishes Duke Johnson’s value a bit. Hyde is a better all-around back than Crowell was and will certainly take over the goal-line work seeing that he’s got 20+ pounds on Duke. It also reduces the likelihood that Cleveland takes Saquon Barkley with the 4th pick in the draft. They will most likely look to draft a defensive player (Chubb) or trade down again.
04/01/18, 11:28 AM CDT by Wheeler
Source: twitter.com
Jerick McKinnon
Minnesota Vikings
McKinnon Goes West For Gold-Rush
49ers agreed to terms with RB Jerick McKinnon, formerly of the Vikings, on a four-year, $30 million contract.
McKinnon averaged a ho-hum 3.8 yards a carry for the Vikings and scored three rushing touchdowns. By contrast, San Francisco's former lead runner, Carlos Hyde, averaged 3.9 yards an attempt in 2017 and had eight rushing touchdowns.
It appears as though Shanahan is enamored with McKinnon's athletic metrics, but I'm not so sure he was "pounding the table" to get him. This move could push the Niner's to cut Joe Williams.
04/01/18, 11:12 AM CDT by Wheeler
Source: www.sacbee.com
Mike Wallace
Baltimore Ravens
Eagles Keep Improving
Eagles signed WR Mike Wallace to a one-year contract.
Mike Wallace can still move posting a top five max speed among wide receivers last season. He will fill the void left by Torrey Smith as a speed vertical threat.
04/01/18, 11:08 AM CDT by Wheeler
Source: twitter.com
Terrelle Pryor
Washington Redskins
Jets Searching For Weapons
Jets agreed to terms with WR Terrelle Pryor, formerly of Washington and Cleveland.
Second year in a row on a new team doesn’t really help Pryor's cause, but I like the idea of him on the field with Teddy Bridgewater at some point. I would imagine, with some creativity, the Jets could really design some innovative gadget plays.
The Jets receiving corps really looks like a bunch of question marks at this point though, no telling what the week-to-week outcome will be with these guys.
Jermaine Kearse: 65 catches, 810 yards, 5 touchdowns (2017)
Robby Anderson: 63 catches, 941 yards, 7 touchdowns (2017)
Quincy Enunwa: 58 catches, 857 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)
Terrelle Pryor: 77 catches, 1007 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)
04/01/18, 11:04 AM CDT by Wheeler
Source: twitter.com
Carlos Henderson
Denver Broncos
Sleeper Watch
Broncos coach Vance Joseph said the team is "counting on" Carlos Henderson making an impact in 2018.
If you are paying attention to Staggs projections there is plenty of opportunity for Henderson to step into a solid number of targets in the slot. Henderson was hindered by injury and awful QB play last year. Being drafted in the 18th round or later in best-ball leagues, Henderson is the late round flyer that should be on your radar.
04/01/18, 11:00 AM CDT by Wheeler
Source: www.denverpost.com
Ben Watson
Baltimore Ravens
Watson Returns To Big Easy
Saints signed TE Ben Watson, formerly of the Ravens, to a one-year contract.
Watson had 74 catches on 110 targets for 825 yards and 6 TD’s when he was with the Saints in 2015. After missing 2016 he had a pretty good year with Baltimore last year despite an anemic offense, with 61 catches on 79 targets for 522 yards and 4 TD’s. He’s not a bad late round flyer TE. He’s basically free right now, but I expect by the time the season starts he’ll be being drafted within the top 20 at the position.
04/01/18, 10:54 AM CDT by Wheeler
Source: twitter.com
Jeff Janis
Green Bay Packers
Janis Truthers Challenged
Browns officially signed former Packers’ WR Jeff Janis.
The combine superstar never amounted to anything in Green Bay, I highly doubt Cleveland is the place for him to finally break-out.
04/01/18, 10:50 AM CDT by Wheeler
Source: twitter.com
Thomas Rawls
Seattle Seahawks
Jets Sign Rawls
Rawls had five RB1 games in 2015, one in 2016, and has been a disappointment since. He’s not worth your time in fantasy, but he could cause enough disruption in the Jets backfield to cut any upside we might have hoped for from Isaiah Crowell.
04/01/18, 10:48 AM CDT by Wheeler
Source: www.newyorkjets.com
Allen Robinson
Jacksonville Jaguars
Coo coo ca choo Mr. Robinson
Bears signed WR Allen Robinson, formerly of the Jaguars, to a three-year, $42 million contract.
This is a great move for Robinson and Chicago. Nagy’s offense and the young QB, Trubiski, should benefit Robinson at least as much as Bortles did, and Chicago gets the top WR in free agency.
Everyone on the team will be in a new scheme so there will be an adjustment, but as they start to gel we should see a big second half. Robinson’s recovery from a torn ACL doesn’t scare me away from drafting him in the late third/early fourth, his current MFL10 ADP is 43 overall while his Draft app ADP is 59.9. I expect Robinson to be somewhere in the range of 75 receptions, for 1100 yards and 8 TD’s.
03/24/18, 08:25 PM CDT by Wheeler
Source: twitter.com
Sammy Watkins
Los Angeles Rams
KC Building Strong Air Attack
Chiefs signed Sammy Watkins, formerly of the Rams, to a three-year, $48 million contract.
I’m a big Sammy truther so getting him in the 5th or 6th round is a pure power move. His current Draft app ADP of 87.1 is an absolute steal, his MFL10 ADP of 69.5 is still a great value in my opinion. There are quite a few options for high targets in KC so I don’t expect him to see the 128 targets he saw his rookie year, but he should definitely see more than the 70 he saw last year. He’ll have an entire offseason to work with the near-rookie QB, and at age 25 he should have enough burst left to have a 70 catch, 1050 yd, 8TD line. For his career he has 16 receptions on 30 targets for 12 TD’s in the Red Zone, and 9 receptions on 13 targets, for 8 TD’s inside the opponents 10. He should be the exact WR the Chiefs need to get over the hump. As a team the Chiefs were 34/75 for 13 TD’s in the Red-Zone last year and 12/24 for 10 TD inside the 10.
03/24/18, 08:19 PM CDT by Wheeler
Source: www.pro-football-reference.com
Kirk Cousins
Washington Redskins
Vikings Like That
Kirk Cousins plans to sign a three-year, fully-guaranteed contract from the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday. The deal is believed to be for around $86 million, and reports are it will be fully-guaranteed, a landmark for an NFL free agent.
Should be a lateral move for Kirk as far as fantasy, better WR’s, but fewer passes thrown in this offense. A healthy Dalvin Cook should be able to run out the clock if they are up in the second half of games and take the ball out of Cousins hands near the end zone. It should also help the overall efficiency of the offense so all in all it increases his floor, but cuts any garbage-time production we’ve seen with Washington. Kyle Rudolph becomes a big benefactor here, Cousins loves his TE, especially near the end-zone.
03/24/18, 08:16 PM CDT by Wheeler
Source: twitter.com
Case Keenum
Minnesota Vikings
Denver Makes Case
Broncos signed QB Case Keenum, formerly of the Vikings, to a two-year, $36 million contract.
Well, I was hoping for more than a bridge QB for my favorite WR (D. Thomas), but this is a definite upgrade from the three stooges Denver put behind center last year.
03/24/18, 08:13 PM CDT by Wheeler
Source: twitter.com
LeGarrette Blount
Philadelphia Eagles
Detroit Sparks Up Blount
The Lions signed free agent RB LeGarrette Blount to a 1-year deal worth $4.5M. He’s back with Matt Patricia, as the New England ties are strong.
The Lions have needed a true goal-line/power-back for years. I expect Blount to get between 150-200 touches and all the short-yardage carries. Detroit’s offense doesn’t really fit what Blount brings to the table, but I expect Patricia will have some influence over how the offense will operate from here-on-out.
03/24/18, 08:10 PM CDT by Wheeler
Source: twitter.com
Cleveland Browns
Money Ball: The Sequel
Hate to start out the offseason with the Cleveland Browns, but they are makin’ moves!
Browns acquired: Tyrod Taylor, Jarvis Landry, Damarious Randall
Browns gave up: 2018 3rd-round pick (No. 65), 2018 4th-round pick, 2019 7th-round pick, DeShone Kizer
Building with experienced quality performers that have something to prove, by selling inconsequential draft picks is exactly what Sashi Brown was building up for. It’s a shame he won’t be around to reap the rewards, but these are quality moves for a win-now mentality.
03/09/18, 09:37 PM CST by Wheeler
Source: twitter.com
Tyrod Taylor
Buffalo Bills
Hue Looks To TyGoat
Browns left tackle Joe Thomas, who's pondering his future, is a fan of Tyrod Taylor and has said so on the ThomaHawk Show podcast.
Tyrod is just one season removed (2016) from being the QB11 in average fantasy ppg, including seven 20+ point weeks and six 15+ point weeks. Given the current talent on the O-line and skill position weapons he could improve on those numbers. He has the potential to be this year’s Alex Smith, definitely heading my late-round (12+) QB picks now.
03/09/18, 09:32 PM CST by Wheeler
Source: twitter.com
Deshone Kizer
Cleveland Browns
Packers Get In On The Fun
The Packers have traded for QB DeShone Kizer from the Browns to Green Bay.
This is the best possible scenario for Kizer, who was thrown into the fire last season. Getting the chance to develop and learn behind the best in the business is the best chance he has for longevity.
03/09/18, 09:30 PM CST by Wheeler
Source: twitter.com
Torrey Smith
Philadelphia Eagles
On The Move Again
The Eagles trade WR Torrey Smith to the Panthers for CB Daryl Worley. Torrey Smith could fill the old Ted Ginn role which makes this fairly interesting. Stagg Party says it’s more of a boost for Cam than Torrey himself.
This is an absolute perfect fit, someone who isn’t going to demand the ball, but can take the top off a defense while McCaffrey, Olsen, and Cam work underneath. Torrey is looking like a great late-round flyer.
03/09/18, 09:28 PM CST by Wheeler
Source: twitter.com
DeMarco Murray
Tennessee Titans
Henry Hype Train Has Clear Track
DeMarco Murray was released by the Titans.
No surprise here, expect Derick Henry to be a lead back with 250+ touches, but they will bring in someone that will play the third-down, pass-catching role out of the backfield. I wouldn’t be surprised if they sign someone like Jerick McKinnon or Rex Burkhead, or even Darren Sproles or Charles Sims. There are also plenty of options in the NFL draft, Henry won’t be a true “Bell Cow.”
03/09/18, 09:17 PM CST by Wheeler
Source: twitter.com
Home Heroes & Road Warriors - Tight Ends
Posted by d-Rx on 08/29/16
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by The Archer More Articals |
Looking Deeper at Tight Ends
Rob Gronkowski. Jordan Reed. Greg Olsen. We know who the best of the best are. But if you draft and value players like me, then you are not going to pay the price tag to get one of those three. Gronk is being drafted in the late 1st or early 2nd round while Reed and Olsen are being drafted as top 50 players off the board. While you may miss out one of the top tight ends in the league by waiting until the middle to late rounds to grab one, streaming those later round tight ends based on home/road splits may give your team the edge to bring home the gold. So let us take a deeper look into the top 24 tight ends based on ADP from Fantasy Pros as of August 25, 2016. We are going to dig into the home/road splits for them and also dig into how they performed against their divisional opponents so we can give you the Home Heroes and Road Warriors.
Road Warriors
We all know how successful players like Drew Brees are when they put on the pads and play in front of the home crowd. It takes a special player to perform at the highest level on the road in front of a hostile crowd. Let’s look at the tight ends and see who could be a solid streaming candidate or late round pick when their teams are on the road.
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Jimmy Graham
I know, I know. Jimmy Graham looked awful and only played in 11 games in 2015. The transition from super powered offense in New Orleans to the conservative, smash mouth style in Seattle did not translate to the red zone targets and being the obvious choice for quarterback Russell Wilson to target. But even with the drop in production and the season ending injury, Graham finished as the tight end 17. Graham was definitely the number one target last year in Seattle before his injury, averaging over 6 targets per game. With a median score of 9.45 points scored on the road over the last three seasons, Graham has shown the ability to play at a high level in hostile environments. Only Gronkowski has a better median score. Seattle showed the willingness to open up the playbook last year after a slew of injuries made them change their game plan. If Pete Carroll allows Wilson to keep throwing the ball like they did at the end of season and Graham can stay on the field, expect Graham to bounce back in 2016.
Dwayne Allen
It should be no surprise to anyone following football that Allen has the worst median score of the 24 tight ends being drafted. With a median score of 1.4 and a ceiling score of 12.4 points in standard leagues over the last three years, Allen hasn’t even been on the radar as a potential streaming option. Allen has been plagued by injuries as he has never played a full season in his career, and hasn’t played more than 12 games in a year for the past three seasons. The Colts showed their confidence in Allen this offseason when they decided to let Fleener walk, and that should open the door for Allen to produce. Andrew Luck targeted his tight ends 168 times in 2014 and Allen saw 50 of those. Even though Allen has not produced at the level that we all would like to see in our tight ends, this will be his year to show what he can do.
Divisional Road Dogs
When you play the other teams in your division twice a year, it is safe to say you need big time performances on the road to ensure victory. The pressure is doubled when those road games against division opponents could get your team playing for the championship or at home watching from the couch. Let us take a look at a couple of Divisional Road Dogs
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Antonio Gates
The San Diego Charger great is back for one more season. And it should be a historical one at that because Gates is 8 touchdowns away from breaking Tony Gonzalez’s all-time record for tight ends. He has proven over the years to be a favorite target for Philip Rivers, recording a median score of 7.85 points on the road and an impressive 7.4 points against his divisional foes on the road. In 2015, he only scored 1 touchdown against division foes on the road but starting the season healthy and being on the same page on the target for the end of season with his quarterback Gates looks to bounce back to top 10 tight end status. His current ADP at tight end 11 and 100 overall makes Gates a late round pick that will pay off with top 10 finish barring injuries.
Ladarius Green
Ladarius Green up to this point in his career was the back-up to Antonio Gates in San Diego. And it looks like his first extended chance to be the number one tight end for a team (Pittsburgh) could be put on hold with nagging injuries keeping him off the field for most of training camp. The conflicting reports of ankle injury or headaches raise an even bigger red flag. In his limited playing time, Green never showed his true potential finishing the last three years with a median score of 2.3 fantasy points scored. While he was brought to the Steelers to take over for Heath Miller, it doesn’t look like Green will produce much this season. Nothing more than a really late round flier or a waiver wire pickup once news of his health start clearing up.
Hometown Heroes
Players like to ball out for the home crowd. Nothing better than scoring that touchdown and listening to the thousands in the stands cheer your name. Some experience that rush more than others and it’s time to give those players their dues. When looking to stream a position like tight end, it is very important to look at how these tight ends perform when the lights of the local stadium are shining on their face.
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Julius Thomas
Thomas came on strong in 2013 with the Denver Broncos as the top tight end option in that high powered offense. Peyton Manning has always enjoyed a pass catching tight end and Thomas filled the role amazingly giving Thomas the chance to sign a big free agent contract to join the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2015. While his first year with Blake Bortles didn’t quite live up to expectations that most fantasy owners had (including myself), we know Thomas performs at his best when he is at home. Since his breakout year of 2013 Thomas has a median score of 9.5 fantasy points in all home games played. Thomas also saw the second most targets in a season of his career. 4 of his 5 touchdowns last year came at home and he looks to become a red zone threat for that offense. One more training camp and work out with Bortles should create that chemistry that will allow Thomas to beat out his ADP as the 9th tight end off the board and 97 player taken overall.
Gary Barnidge
I could have easily used this space to talk about Ladarius Green or Dwayne Allen again, but that is not the type of person I am. So let us talk about another tight end, one who came on strong last year on a bad team: Gary Barnidge. While Barnidge finished last year as the number 2 tight end in standard scoring leagues, he also saw an incredible increase in targets and touchdowns. 9 of his 12 career touchdowns came last year and the 125 targets seen last year is exactly 100 targets more than his next best season. Overall over the last 3 seasons, Barnidge has only averaged 2.9 fantasy points at home. He hasn’t shown the consistency to be a top tight end and his career numbers expect huge regression. His ADP of tight end 8 and 79th overall player will be hard for Barnidge to succeed with. Don’t be fooled by his one great season, let us see another year of production before we name him a Hometown Hero.
Honorable Mention: Coby Fleener
Coby Fleener served as the primary receiving TE for the Colts the last three years and that earned him a big payday in New Orleans. It is common knowledge that Drew Brees and that offense are always clicking on all cylinders when playing in the Super Dome. Fleener is a better replacement than Ben Watson was last year for Jimmy Graham and should be able to produce at a TE5 or better clip. Not many chances will be had to stream him but if you pay the price to draft Fleener, watch him early this season to see how he fits in with that offense.
Home Versus Divisional Opponents
We know the drill by now. Win all the home games and steal a couple on the road, you will more than likely be seeing the playoffs. These players play big in the biggest home games: the games against their division rivals. Let’s get a couple of names to talk about that we could exploit their matchups.
- enlarge chart -
Jason Witten
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Jason Witten has been Tony Romo’s favorite target over the time. Witten has been a staple in that Dallas offense, and with the Cowboys looking to go back to power run game, the passing attack should open back up for Witten. Witten over the last three years has compiled an average score of 11.8 fantasy points scored when playing home games against division opponents. 2015 is the perfect example of this. All three of his touchdowns last year came against division rivals Giants and Redskins while playing in the confines of AT&T Stadium. Now that the news of Romo’s back injury has been released, I expect Dak Prescott to rely heavily on Witten and a healthy Dez Bryant in the passing game. Witten has the floor you look for at a very volatile position and with a rookie quarterback or an older player looking to avoid the big hit at the helm of that offense, Witten could easily improve on his 2015 numbers that saw him end as the tight end 12. His ADP of 14th tight end of the board and the 129th overall player drafted could easily turn into the steal of the draft that gives you that consistency every single week that could give you fantasy gold. Especially when at home against the NFC East.
Eric Ebron
Calvin Johnson is no longer suiting up for the Detroit Lions. No more feeding the best wide receiver the league has seen in a long time. So what does this mean for the Lions passing game? It should mean that Ebron, Tate, and Jones are going to be asked to step up and fill those legendary shoes. And while Tate and Jones on the outside look to be a potent duo for Stafford, Ebron hasn’t shown as much. Whether it be because of health issues- having never played a full 16 game season- or concerns that his head just is not in the game Ebron has not lived up to his draft position the last couple of seasons. He scored on average a lousy 2.3 fantasy points when playing at home against divisional opponents to go with a 2.55 average in ALL home games. While the Lions are looking for him to fill the red zone role left by Johnson, he has not done much this training camp to build that rapport with Stafford, who is one of the best fantasy options at home. Being drafted as the 198th player off the board and the 19th tight end is a low risk price that could lead to some streaming capabilities if Ebron and Stafford show some chemistry.
Now while these players listed have all been highlighted for many reasons, we can't forget to be diligent in watching new trends and new information. Ebron could step up and come off this list. Graham could not show any improvements and no longer be in favor with Russell. For all the latest news and advice, reach out through Twitter. Follow me at @LouieMac8 and make sure to always check Pyromaniac for the latest information.
by Louie Mac
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