Week 20
January 20, 2018
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Tom Brady

New England Patriots

Tom Still Terrific?


Tom Brady was first listed on the team's injury report with an Achilles injury heading in to Week 11.
Weeks 1-10: 21.2 fantasy points per game, 110.9 passer rating
Weeks 11-17: 14.2 fantasy points per game, 87.3 passer rating

Fantasy Goo: This should line up for a good week for Brady, Tennessee is 8th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, but just below average against QB’s. The Patriots are 13 point favorites on Saturday Night, if Brady doesn’t do it at home in prime-time then something is wrong.


01/09/18, 07:30 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alvin Kamara

New Orleans Saints

Primary Role Shifting


Saints have run 5 times at/inside opponent's 5-yard line over last 4 weeks (including playoffs):
Alvin Kamara 3 carries, Zach Line 1, Mark Ingram 1. Kamara was in on all 3 Saints run plays at/inside 5 vs. Panthers last week, including Line's 1-yard TD run.

Fantasy Goo: If you’re trying to decide between Kamara and Ingram for the playoff run, Kamara looks to be the much better play.


01/09/18, 07:20 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jay Ajayi

Philadelphia Eagles

It's A Trap


Jay Ajayi (knee) is practicing in full for the Divisional Round.

Fantasy Goo: Atlanta is 5th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s this year and they are more susceptible to pass-catching backs. Todd Gurley rushed 14 times for 101 yards in the Rams' Wild Card loss to the Falcons, adding four receptions for 10 additional yards. Ajayi might have been drafted before Gurley this year, but that was clearly a mistake. Ajayi has talent, but he’s far from a good option this week.


01/09/18, 07:16 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Chris Hogan

New England Patriots

Back in Action


Chris Hogan (shoulder) is expected to return for Saturday's Divisional Round game against the Titans.

Fantasy Goo: He’s going to take a couple of weeks to get in tune with the offense, I’m looking to save him until the Super Bowl if you’re in one of those one and done fantasy playoff tournaments.


01/09/18, 07:14 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Drew Brees

New Orleans Saints

Strength vs Strength


Saints RBs led NFL during regular season in receptions (9.0) and receiving yards (77.8) per game.
Vikings held opposing RBs to fewest yards per target (4.2) and 3rd-fewest yards per game (30.6).

Fantasy Goo: The Vikings have been absolutely sick in all aspects on defense this year. If the Saints are going to pull this one out it sounds like it’s going to have to be a Brees week, I’m not so sure he’s going to be the guy you want to start on the road this week.


01/09/18, 07:12 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


LeSean McCoy

Buffalo Bills

Not The Real McCoy


LeSean McCoy said if he plays Sunday, "I want to be able to cut well enough to where I don't have a lot of pain cutting. I just want to be close, or the best as far as 100 percent as I can get. The type of game like this, you got to lay it all on the line.”

Fantasy Goo: McCoy is a poor play against the Jags this week. The Jags strength on defense is against the pass (#1 in FP allowed), but they are still strong against the rush (11th). I’m not taking any Bills on fantasy playoff squads or in DFS this week.


01/04/18, 09:29 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Derrick Henry

Tennessee Titans

Arrow Pointing Down


DeMarco Murray (knee) didn't practice again Thursday. Derrick Henry show ready to go.

Fantasy Goo: The way to attack KC is through the air, they rank 9th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s. They will most likely be in negative game script. KC hasn’t allowed any team to score over 20 points in Arrowhead all year.


01/04/18, 09:27 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Julio Jones

Atlanta Falcons

No Fly Zone


Julio Jones finished 11th in NFL in red-zone targets but caught only 5 of 19. He finished 4th in targets inside 10 but only caught 4 of 11.

Fantasy Goo: The Rams have a strong pass defense, especially against outside receivers, but are second worst in fantasy points allowed to RB’s. Freeman and Coleman are the only Falcons I am considering this week.


01/04/18, 09:25 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Kenny Golladay

Detroit Lions

Under the Radar


In the first game with TJ Jones (shoulder) on IR last week, Kenny Golladay played 95% of snaps and led DET WRs with 8 targets.

Fantasy Goo: Marvin Jones has a history of shredding the Packers defense and is a solid play at $6500 on DK, but Golladay is half the price ($3300) and will probably see a similar number of targets. If Detroit had something to play for I’d be stacking the heck out of this game, but I still think it’s smart to have one of these guys in the line-up this week.


12/31/17, 09:46 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Patrick Mahomes

Kansas City Chiefs

Rookie Debut


Patrick Mahomes was 2nd in PFF’s QB Rating when kept clean in preseason. He rushed for 744 yards, 22 TDs in his last two years at Texas Tech. Denver has allowed multiple passing TDs to six-straight QBs not named Petty or Brissett.

Fantasy Goo: The rookie was supposed to take over for Alex Smith much earlier this season, but Smith and the Chief’s came out firing on all cylinders and kept the rookie on the bench. Mahomes will get his chance this week as Smith gets a week off before the playoffs. Denver may be packing it in, but they still have one of the best defenses and I expect they will play more inspired this week against a division rival.


12/31/17, 09:32 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Wayne Gallman

New York Giants

Last Man Standing


Giants will be without Shepard (neck), Engram (ribs), and King (concussion) vs. WAS. Wayne Gallman has 9, 7, 8 target counts in last three weeks.

Fantasy Goo: Washington ranks 24th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s and Gallman is $4200 on DK. Feels like a great way to save and pay up at other positions.


12/31/17, 09:21 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alex Collins

Baltimore Ravens

Burfict Situation


Bengals LB Vontaze Burfict ruled out for game Sunday at Baltimore because of shoulder injury.

Fantasy Goo: Collins becomes a solid RB1 this week. Cincinnati’s run defense is a sieve with Burfict out.


12/31/17, 09:19 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Akeem Hunt

Houston Texans

Akeem No Dream


Charcandrick West is out Sunday vs Denver with an illness. Akeem Hunt and Kareem Hunt only RBs on active roster for KC. It would be a surprise to see Kareem play much. That means a ton of Akeem Hunt and likely some De'Anthony Thomas on passing downs.

Fantasy Goo: Akeem is min price ($3000) on DK so the definition of a free-square, but there’s a reason he’s bounced around the NFL and never earned a starting role. Denver is 5th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, I’m not rostering Akeem when there are so many other options this week.


12/31/17, 09:17 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


DeAndre Hopkins

Houston Texans

Milestone Not Worth The Risk


Bill O'Brien on DeAndre Hopkins' status: 'Probably won't know up until game time'. Typically, we might classify this as coach-speak, but Hopkins has never missed a game, and is four catches away from 100 for the season. He's probably pushing hard to play.

Fantasy Goo: This is an awesome match-up for the Houston WR’s going against a very weak Indy pass defense, but there is really no reason for Hopkins to play, especially with the calf injury. At $8400 on DK he’s just way too pricey given this news. A sneaky start might be Will Fuller at $4300, he has 5 targets in each of the past three games and is coming off some difficult match-ups. Earlier in the season he was a superstar with Watson throwing the ball, but he has always had the big play in his arsenal no matter who the QB is.


12/29/17, 10:03 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Dion Lewis

New England Patriots

Vultures Are Always Flying


James White (ankle) remained limited at Thursday's practice. White was absent for last week's win over Buffalo but should be out there against the Jets in Week 17. He ranks eighth among running backs with 56 catches this year.

Fantasy Goo: Lewis dominated last week with White and Burkhead out, even though Gillislee vultured a TD. I would imagine that White playing will take away the five receptions Lewis had last week and the Jets actually have a better rush defense than the Pats week 16 opponent (Buf). The Pats will be looking to lock-up home field advantage and won’t be resting their starters, but they will probably be looking to get everyone some work as they prep for the playoffs. Gillislee appears to be nursing a hammy and is not expected to play, but let’s not forget how White performed last year in the Super Bowl.


12/29/17, 09:47 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

Pittsburgh Steelers

Stars Sitting


The Steelers Marcus Gilbert tells reporter Tim Benz that the Steelers won't play Ben Roethlisberger or Le'Veon Bell in finale vs. Cleveland. Landry Jones will be under center for Pittsburgh and Fitzgerald Toussaint and Stevan Ridley will form a thoroughly underwhelming RB committee against the Browns.

Fantasy Goo: Underwhelming is an understatement for these two backs, a highly respected fantasy website hasn’t even updated the news on these two since the pre-season and doesn’t even recognize them as being on the team. The one player of note in this is Martavis Bryant, The Alien averages over 17 ppr points per game with Landry at the helm as opposed to 8.4 ppg with other QB’s. He also has 5 TD’s in 5 home games with Landry. Granted most of this production comes from 2015 when they worked together often in the preseason, but Bryant could be a very sneaky GPP play this week.


12/29/17, 09:23 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Jacksonville Jaguars

Play To Win The Game


Despite already being locked into the AFC's No. 3 seed, Jaguars coach Doug Marrone has no plans to rest starters in Sunday's game against the Titans. "Make no mistake about it, just so there is not a lot of talk during the week: When the players come in (Wednesday), we are talking about how we are going to play to win and do everything we possibly can to win this game, period," Marrone said. "I am not even thinking about what happens beyond that, and that is the way we are going to go about our business this week."

Fantasy Goo: I think it’s crazy of him to do, but I’m sure he has Tom Coughlin in his ear feeding him that old-school philosophy. Looks like Bortles, Fournette, Westbrook and Cole will be safe plays against a Titan’s team hoping to hold on to the sixth seed in the AFC.


12/26/17, 10:00 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

Los Angeles Rams

Resting Starters


McVay hints that there will be Rams starters “who won’t play at all” on Sunday. The Rams are already locked into either the No. 3 or 4 seed in the NFC and will host a Wild Card round playoff game.

Fantasy Goo: Gurley, Goff, Woods, all sitting this week? That’s going to destroy so many hopes and dreams for teams that rode Gurley all year.


12/26/17, 09:58 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


DeMarco Murray

Tennessee Titans

Grind It Out


Mike Mularkey said he's not ruling DeMarco Murray out just yet. He's day-to-day. The Titans are holding out hope to have him in limited role.

Fantasy Goo: They are really grinding him into the dirt if they play him this week. I didn’t see the injury, but it sounded pretty ugly from sources in the know. Keep away from him in whatever format you are playing this week, I’m giving Derick Henry a solid upgrade as the Titans are trying to hold on to the final playoff spot in the AFC.


12/26/17, 05:17 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Philadelphia Eagles

All Locked Up


Pederson on playing Foles vs. Cowboys: “I’ve got to get him as many reps as he can and then be smart about it. Obviously, we have a lot of football left. Our season is really just beginning, quite honestly. We’ll be smart.”

Fantasy Goo: This is why you don’t play a championship game in week 17. I’m staying away from the Eagles regular starters, pretty much across the board, as they have a first round bye all locked up. Guys like Blount, Clement, and Nelson Agholor might have some DFS appeal, but we have to get closer to Sunday to see what they plan on doing.


12/26/17, 05:15 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Antonio Gates is a Road Warrior at Tight End, see who are the home heroes

Home Heroes & Road Warriors - Tight Ends

Posted by d-Rx on 08/29/16

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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Looking Deeper at Tight Ends

 

            Rob Gronkowski. Jordan Reed. Greg Olsen. We know who the best of the best are. But if you draft and value players like me, then you are not going to pay the price tag to get one of those three. Gronk is being drafted in the late 1st or early 2nd round while Reed and Olsen are being drafted as top 50 players off the board. While you may miss out one of the top tight ends in the league by waiting until the middle to late rounds to grab one, streaming those later round tight ends based on home/road splits may give your team the edge to bring home the gold. So let us take a deeper look into the top 24 tight ends based on ADP from Fantasy Pros as of August 25, 2016. We are going to dig into the home/road splits for them and also dig into how they performed against their divisional opponents so we can give you the Home Heroes and Road Warriors.

 

 

Road Warriors

            We all know how successful players like Drew Brees are when they put on the pads and play in front of the home crowd. It takes a special player to perform at the highest level on the road in front of a hostile crowd. Let’s look at the tight ends and see who could be a solid streaming candidate or late round pick when their teams are on the road.

 


Road Warriors TEs - Away Games Chart

- enlarge chart -

 


Jimmy Graham

            I know, I know. Jimmy Graham looked awful and only played in 11 games in 2015. The transition from super powered offense in New Orleans to the conservative, smash mouth style in Seattle did not translate to the red zone targets and being the obvious choice for quarterback Russell Wilson to target. But even with the drop in production and the season ending injury, Graham finished as the tight end 17. Graham was definitely the number one target last year in Seattle before his injury, averaging over 6 targets per game. With a median score of 9.45 points scored on the road over the last three seasons, Graham has shown the ability to play at a high level in hostile environments. Only Gronkowski has a better median score. Seattle showed the willingness to open up the playbook last year after a slew of injuries made them change their game plan. If Pete Carroll allows Wilson to keep throwing the ball like they did at the end of season and Graham can stay on the field, expect Graham to bounce back in 2016.

  

 

Dwayne Allen

It should be no surprise to anyone following football that Allen has the worst median score of the 24 tight ends being drafted. With a median score of 1.4 and a ceiling score of 12.4 points in standard leagues over the last three years, Allen hasn’t even been on the radar as a potential streaming option. Allen has been plagued by injuries as he has never played a full season in his career, and hasn’t played more than 12 games in a year for the past three seasons. The Colts showed their confidence in Allen this offseason when they decided to let Fleener walk, and that should open the door for Allen to produce. Andrew Luck targeted his tight ends 168 times in 2014 and Allen saw 50 of those. Even though Allen has not produced at the level that we all would like to see in our tight ends, this will be his year to show what he can do.

 


Divisional Road Dogs

When you play the other teams in your division twice a year, it is safe to say you need big time performances on the road to ensure victory. The pressure is doubled when those road games against division opponents could get your team playing for the championship or at home watching from the couch. Let us take a look at a couple of Divisional Road Dogs

 


Road Warriors at Tight Ends - Away Divisional Chart
- enlarge chart -

 

 

Antonio Gates

The San Diego Charger great is back for one more season. And it should be a historical one at that because Gates is 8 touchdowns away from breaking Tony Gonzalez’s all-time record for tight ends. He has proven over the years to be a favorite target for Philip Rivers, recording a median score of 7.85 points on the road and an impressive 7.4 points against his divisional foes on the road. In 2015, he only scored 1 touchdown against division foes on the road but starting the season healthy and being on the same page on the target for the end of season with his quarterback Gates looks to bounce back to top 10 tight end status. His current ADP at tight end 11 and 100 overall makes Gates a late round pick that will pay off with top 10 finish barring injuries.

 

 

Ladarius Green

Ladarius Green up to this point in his career was the back-up to Antonio Gates in San Diego. And it looks like his first extended chance to be the number one tight end for a team (Pittsburgh) could be put on hold with nagging injuries keeping him off the field for most of training camp. The conflicting reports of ankle injury or headaches raise an even bigger red flag. In his limited playing time, Green never showed his true potential finishing the last three years with a median score of 2.3 fantasy points scored. While he was brought to the Steelers to take over for Heath Miller, it doesn’t look like Green will produce much this season. Nothing more than a really late round flier or a waiver wire pickup once news of his health start clearing up.

 


Hometown Heroes

Players like to ball out for the home crowd. Nothing better than scoring that touchdown and listening to the thousands in the stands cheer your name. Some experience that rush more than others and it’s time to give those players their dues. When looking to stream a position like tight end, it is very important to look at how these tight ends perform when the lights of the local stadium are shining on their face.

 

 

Home Heroes at Tight End - home Games

 - enlarge chart -

 

 

Julius Thomas

Thomas came on strong in 2013 with the Denver Broncos as the top tight end option in that high powered offense. Peyton Manning has always enjoyed a pass catching tight end and Thomas filled the role amazingly giving Thomas the chance to sign a big free agent contract to join the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2015. While his first year with Blake Bortles didn’t quite live up to expectations that most fantasy owners had (including myself), we know Thomas performs at his best when he is at home. Since his breakout year of 2013 Thomas has a median score of 9.5 fantasy points in all home games played. Thomas also saw the second most targets in a season of his career. 4 of his 5 touchdowns last year came at home and he looks to become a red zone threat for that offense. One more training camp and work out with Bortles should create that chemistry that will allow Thomas to beat out his ADP as the 9th tight end off the board and 97 player taken overall.    

 


Gary Barnidge

I could have easily used this space to talk about Ladarius Green or Dwayne Allen again, but that is not the type of person I am. So let us talk about another tight end, one who came on strong last year on a bad team: Gary Barnidge. While Barnidge finished last year as the number 2 tight end in standard scoring leagues, he also saw an incredible increase in targets and touchdowns. 9 of his 12 career touchdowns came last year and the 125 targets seen last year is exactly 100 targets more than his next best season. Overall over the last 3 seasons, Barnidge has only averaged 2.9 fantasy points at home. He hasn’t shown the consistency to be a top tight end and his career numbers expect huge regression. His ADP of tight end 8 and 79th overall player will be hard for Barnidge to succeed with. Don’t be fooled by his one great season, let us see another year of production before we name him a Hometown Hero.

 


Honorable Mention: Coby Fleener

Coby Fleener served as the primary receiving TE for the Colts the last three years and that earned him a big payday in New Orleans. It is common knowledge that Drew Brees and that offense are always clicking on all cylinders when playing in the Super Dome. Fleener is a better replacement than Ben Watson was last year for Jimmy Graham and should be able to produce at a TE5 or better clip. Not many chances will be had to stream him but if you pay the price to draft Fleener, watch him early this season to see how he fits in with that offense.

 


Home Versus Divisional Opponents

 We know the drill by now. Win all the home games and steal a couple on the road, you will more than likely be seeing the playoffs. These players play big in the biggest home games: the games against their division rivals. Let’s get a couple of names to talk about that we could exploit their matchups.

 

 

Home heroes for tight ends - home divisional chart

- enlarge chart

 


Jason Witten

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Jason Witten has been Tony Romo’s favorite target over the time. Witten has been a staple in that Dallas offense, and with the Cowboys looking to go back to power run game, the passing attack should open back up for Witten. Witten over the last three years has compiled an average score of 11.8 fantasy points scored when playing home games against division opponents. 2015 is the perfect example of this. All three of his touchdowns last year came against division rivals Giants and Redskins while playing in the confines of AT&T Stadium. Now that the news of Romo’s back injury has been released, I expect Dak Prescott to rely heavily on Witten and a healthy Dez Bryant in the passing game. Witten has the floor you look for at a very volatile position and with a rookie quarterback or an older player looking to avoid the big hit at the helm of that offense, Witten could easily improve on his 2015 numbers that saw him end as the tight end 12. His ADP of 14th tight end of the board and the 129th overall player drafted could easily turn into the steal of the draft that gives you that consistency every single week that could give you fantasy gold. Especially when at home against the NFC East.



Eric Ebron

Calvin Johnson is no longer suiting up for the Detroit Lions. No more feeding the best wide receiver the league has seen in a long time. So what does this mean for the Lions passing game? It should mean that Ebron, Tate, and Jones are going to be asked to step up and fill those legendary shoes. And while Tate and Jones on the outside look to be a potent duo for Stafford, Ebron hasn’t shown as much. Whether it be because of health issues- having never played a full 16 game season- or concerns that his head just is not in the game Ebron has not lived up to his draft position the last couple of seasons. He scored on average a lousy 2.3 fantasy points when playing at home against divisional opponents to go with a 2.55 average in ALL home games. While the Lions are looking for him to fill the red zone role left by Johnson, he has not done much this training camp to build that rapport with Stafford, who is one of the best fantasy options at home. Being drafted as the 198th player off the board and the 19th tight end is a low risk price that could lead to some streaming capabilities if Ebron and Stafford show some chemistry.  

 


Now while these players listed have all been highlighted for many reasons, we can't forget to be diligent in watching new trends and new information. Ebron could step up and come off this list. Graham could not show any improvements and no longer be in favor with Russell. For all the latest news and advice, reach out through Twitter. Follow me at @LouieMac8 and make sure to always check Pyromaniac for the latest information.  

 

 


by Louie Mac

 

 

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