Houston Texans @ New England Patriots (-15.5); Over/Under: 44.5

Saturday, January 14, 2017 at 8:15pm EST

The Houston Texans beat the Oakland Raiders last week 27-14 earning them the privilege to face the Patriots on their turf. While the Texans scored 27 points, not much credit can be given to the offense. Broke Asswiper threw for only 168 yards with one touchdown, but also added a rushing touchdown. If that is all the offense he can muster at home against the Raiders then you can’t feel confident about him at all in this matchup on the road where the Texans are going to need to score a lot of points to win. Lamar Miller rushed for 73 yards and a score last week, but he took 31 carries to get to that level. The Texans are likely to be playing from behind in this game, and that minimizes Miller and his opportunities in the run game. He will need to make an impact as a receiver this week, but there are not a lot of those yards to go around. DeAndre Hopkins saw a team high nine targets last week, and hauled in five of them for 67 yards with a touchdown. He should see a good amount of targets this week as the Texans will need to generate offense in the passing game to win the game. Will Fuller finally made some plays last week, catching four passes for 37 yards, but this is a big stage for the rookie who has not impressed since the hot start to the season. C.J. Fiedorowicz continues to be get a steady supply of targets, as he saw four last week, but only caught two passes for 35 yards. There is also Ryan Griffin who ate into his production with four targets as well last week, catching three of them for 29 yards. The Texans are not strong plays this week in DFS.

The Patriots will welcome the Texans into town, and while their offense is not imposing the same cannot be said for the Texans defense. The Texans allowed the third fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks, limiting them to 13.8 fantasy points per game. Tom Brady comes into this game on the heels of throwing three touchdowns in his last two games, and three of his last four. In his last five playoff games Brady has thrown for more than 300 yards in four of them, and thrown 13 touchdown passes. The odds are he finds a way to solve the Texans defense. LeGarrette Blount and Dion Lewis are sharing more time in the backfield, with Lewis averaging 15 carries per game in his last three games. That makes Blount only attractive in DFS if he can score a touchdown. Lewis is going to see a lot of carries again, but he will also be a big part of the offense with his pass catching ability. Julian Edelman will be the main receiving weapon for Tom Brady, and he is coming into this game on a high note after catching eight passes for 151 yards with a 77-yard touchdown catch against the Dolphins in Week 17. He will be moved all over the offense and Brady will get him at least 10 targets this week. Chris Hogan Malcolm Mitchell and Michael Floyd will be battling it out for the next reps amongst the receivers, and Floyd showed well in his last game, catching three passes for 36 yards with a touchdown. One of these guys is going to have a big game, but it is not easy to pick it. I am throwing my hat on Hogan to get it done this week. Martellus Bennett will also play a role in this offense, and he is always a threat in the redzone. Bennett has caught a touchdown pass in three of his last four games and will look to carry that momentum into this matchup. The Patriots should win this game by two touchdowns.

By: Houdini

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