Week 20
January 20, 2018
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Tom Brady

New England Patriots

Tom Still Terrific?


Tom Brady was first listed on the team's injury report with an Achilles injury heading in to Week 11.
Weeks 1-10: 21.2 fantasy points per game, 110.9 passer rating
Weeks 11-17: 14.2 fantasy points per game, 87.3 passer rating

Fantasy Goo: This should line up for a good week for Brady, Tennessee is 8th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, but just below average against QB’s. The Patriots are 13 point favorites on Saturday Night, if Brady doesn’t do it at home in prime-time then something is wrong.


01/09/18, 07:30 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alvin Kamara

New Orleans Saints

Primary Role Shifting


Saints have run 5 times at/inside opponent's 5-yard line over last 4 weeks (including playoffs):
Alvin Kamara 3 carries, Zach Line 1, Mark Ingram 1. Kamara was in on all 3 Saints run plays at/inside 5 vs. Panthers last week, including Line's 1-yard TD run.

Fantasy Goo: If you’re trying to decide between Kamara and Ingram for the playoff run, Kamara looks to be the much better play.


01/09/18, 07:20 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jay Ajayi

Philadelphia Eagles

It's A Trap


Jay Ajayi (knee) is practicing in full for the Divisional Round.

Fantasy Goo: Atlanta is 5th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s this year and they are more susceptible to pass-catching backs. Todd Gurley rushed 14 times for 101 yards in the Rams' Wild Card loss to the Falcons, adding four receptions for 10 additional yards. Ajayi might have been drafted before Gurley this year, but that was clearly a mistake. Ajayi has talent, but he’s far from a good option this week.


01/09/18, 07:16 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Chris Hogan

New England Patriots

Back in Action


Chris Hogan (shoulder) is expected to return for Saturday's Divisional Round game against the Titans.

Fantasy Goo: He’s going to take a couple of weeks to get in tune with the offense, I’m looking to save him until the Super Bowl if you’re in one of those one and done fantasy playoff tournaments.


01/09/18, 07:14 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Drew Brees

New Orleans Saints

Strength vs Strength


Saints RBs led NFL during regular season in receptions (9.0) and receiving yards (77.8) per game.
Vikings held opposing RBs to fewest yards per target (4.2) and 3rd-fewest yards per game (30.6).

Fantasy Goo: The Vikings have been absolutely sick in all aspects on defense this year. If the Saints are going to pull this one out it sounds like it’s going to have to be a Brees week, I’m not so sure he’s going to be the guy you want to start on the road this week.


01/09/18, 07:12 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


LeSean McCoy

Buffalo Bills

Not The Real McCoy


LeSean McCoy said if he plays Sunday, "I want to be able to cut well enough to where I don't have a lot of pain cutting. I just want to be close, or the best as far as 100 percent as I can get. The type of game like this, you got to lay it all on the line.”

Fantasy Goo: McCoy is a poor play against the Jags this week. The Jags strength on defense is against the pass (#1 in FP allowed), but they are still strong against the rush (11th). I’m not taking any Bills on fantasy playoff squads or in DFS this week.


01/04/18, 09:29 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Derrick Henry

Tennessee Titans

Arrow Pointing Down


DeMarco Murray (knee) didn't practice again Thursday. Derrick Henry show ready to go.

Fantasy Goo: The way to attack KC is through the air, they rank 9th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s. They will most likely be in negative game script. KC hasn’t allowed any team to score over 20 points in Arrowhead all year.


01/04/18, 09:27 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Julio Jones

Atlanta Falcons

No Fly Zone


Julio Jones finished 11th in NFL in red-zone targets but caught only 5 of 19. He finished 4th in targets inside 10 but only caught 4 of 11.

Fantasy Goo: The Rams have a strong pass defense, especially against outside receivers, but are second worst in fantasy points allowed to RB’s. Freeman and Coleman are the only Falcons I am considering this week.


01/04/18, 09:25 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Kenny Golladay

Detroit Lions

Under the Radar


In the first game with TJ Jones (shoulder) on IR last week, Kenny Golladay played 95% of snaps and led DET WRs with 8 targets.

Fantasy Goo: Marvin Jones has a history of shredding the Packers defense and is a solid play at $6500 on DK, but Golladay is half the price ($3300) and will probably see a similar number of targets. If Detroit had something to play for I’d be stacking the heck out of this game, but I still think it’s smart to have one of these guys in the line-up this week.


12/31/17, 09:46 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Patrick Mahomes

Kansas City Chiefs

Rookie Debut


Patrick Mahomes was 2nd in PFF’s QB Rating when kept clean in preseason. He rushed for 744 yards, 22 TDs in his last two years at Texas Tech. Denver has allowed multiple passing TDs to six-straight QBs not named Petty or Brissett.

Fantasy Goo: The rookie was supposed to take over for Alex Smith much earlier this season, but Smith and the Chief’s came out firing on all cylinders and kept the rookie on the bench. Mahomes will get his chance this week as Smith gets a week off before the playoffs. Denver may be packing it in, but they still have one of the best defenses and I expect they will play more inspired this week against a division rival.


12/31/17, 09:32 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Wayne Gallman

New York Giants

Last Man Standing


Giants will be without Shepard (neck), Engram (ribs), and King (concussion) vs. WAS. Wayne Gallman has 9, 7, 8 target counts in last three weeks.

Fantasy Goo: Washington ranks 24th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s and Gallman is $4200 on DK. Feels like a great way to save and pay up at other positions.


12/31/17, 09:21 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alex Collins

Baltimore Ravens

Burfict Situation


Bengals LB Vontaze Burfict ruled out for game Sunday at Baltimore because of shoulder injury.

Fantasy Goo: Collins becomes a solid RB1 this week. Cincinnati’s run defense is a sieve with Burfict out.


12/31/17, 09:19 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Akeem Hunt

Houston Texans

Akeem No Dream


Charcandrick West is out Sunday vs Denver with an illness. Akeem Hunt and Kareem Hunt only RBs on active roster for KC. It would be a surprise to see Kareem play much. That means a ton of Akeem Hunt and likely some De'Anthony Thomas on passing downs.

Fantasy Goo: Akeem is min price ($3000) on DK so the definition of a free-square, but there’s a reason he’s bounced around the NFL and never earned a starting role. Denver is 5th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, I’m not rostering Akeem when there are so many other options this week.


12/31/17, 09:17 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


DeAndre Hopkins

Houston Texans

Milestone Not Worth The Risk


Bill O'Brien on DeAndre Hopkins' status: 'Probably won't know up until game time'. Typically, we might classify this as coach-speak, but Hopkins has never missed a game, and is four catches away from 100 for the season. He's probably pushing hard to play.

Fantasy Goo: This is an awesome match-up for the Houston WR’s going against a very weak Indy pass defense, but there is really no reason for Hopkins to play, especially with the calf injury. At $8400 on DK he’s just way too pricey given this news. A sneaky start might be Will Fuller at $4300, he has 5 targets in each of the past three games and is coming off some difficult match-ups. Earlier in the season he was a superstar with Watson throwing the ball, but he has always had the big play in his arsenal no matter who the QB is.


12/29/17, 10:03 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Dion Lewis

New England Patriots

Vultures Are Always Flying


James White (ankle) remained limited at Thursday's practice. White was absent for last week's win over Buffalo but should be out there against the Jets in Week 17. He ranks eighth among running backs with 56 catches this year.

Fantasy Goo: Lewis dominated last week with White and Burkhead out, even though Gillislee vultured a TD. I would imagine that White playing will take away the five receptions Lewis had last week and the Jets actually have a better rush defense than the Pats week 16 opponent (Buf). The Pats will be looking to lock-up home field advantage and won’t be resting their starters, but they will probably be looking to get everyone some work as they prep for the playoffs. Gillislee appears to be nursing a hammy and is not expected to play, but let’s not forget how White performed last year in the Super Bowl.


12/29/17, 09:47 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

Pittsburgh Steelers

Stars Sitting


The Steelers Marcus Gilbert tells reporter Tim Benz that the Steelers won't play Ben Roethlisberger or Le'Veon Bell in finale vs. Cleveland. Landry Jones will be under center for Pittsburgh and Fitzgerald Toussaint and Stevan Ridley will form a thoroughly underwhelming RB committee against the Browns.

Fantasy Goo: Underwhelming is an understatement for these two backs, a highly respected fantasy website hasn’t even updated the news on these two since the pre-season and doesn’t even recognize them as being on the team. The one player of note in this is Martavis Bryant, The Alien averages over 17 ppr points per game with Landry at the helm as opposed to 8.4 ppg with other QB’s. He also has 5 TD’s in 5 home games with Landry. Granted most of this production comes from 2015 when they worked together often in the preseason, but Bryant could be a very sneaky GPP play this week.


12/29/17, 09:23 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Jacksonville Jaguars

Play To Win The Game


Despite already being locked into the AFC's No. 3 seed, Jaguars coach Doug Marrone has no plans to rest starters in Sunday's game against the Titans. "Make no mistake about it, just so there is not a lot of talk during the week: When the players come in (Wednesday), we are talking about how we are going to play to win and do everything we possibly can to win this game, period," Marrone said. "I am not even thinking about what happens beyond that, and that is the way we are going to go about our business this week."

Fantasy Goo: I think it’s crazy of him to do, but I’m sure he has Tom Coughlin in his ear feeding him that old-school philosophy. Looks like Bortles, Fournette, Westbrook and Cole will be safe plays against a Titan’s team hoping to hold on to the sixth seed in the AFC.


12/26/17, 10:00 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

Los Angeles Rams

Resting Starters


McVay hints that there will be Rams starters “who won’t play at all” on Sunday. The Rams are already locked into either the No. 3 or 4 seed in the NFC and will host a Wild Card round playoff game.

Fantasy Goo: Gurley, Goff, Woods, all sitting this week? That’s going to destroy so many hopes and dreams for teams that rode Gurley all year.


12/26/17, 09:58 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


DeMarco Murray

Tennessee Titans

Grind It Out


Mike Mularkey said he's not ruling DeMarco Murray out just yet. He's day-to-day. The Titans are holding out hope to have him in limited role.

Fantasy Goo: They are really grinding him into the dirt if they play him this week. I didn’t see the injury, but it sounded pretty ugly from sources in the know. Keep away from him in whatever format you are playing this week, I’m giving Derick Henry a solid upgrade as the Titans are trying to hold on to the final playoff spot in the AFC.


12/26/17, 05:17 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Philadelphia Eagles

All Locked Up


Pederson on playing Foles vs. Cowboys: “I’ve got to get him as many reps as he can and then be smart about it. Obviously, we have a lot of football left. Our season is really just beginning, quite honestly. We’ll be smart.”

Fantasy Goo: This is why you don’t play a championship game in week 17. I’m staying away from the Eagles regular starters, pretty much across the board, as they have a first round bye all locked up. Guys like Blount, Clement, and Nelson Agholor might have some DFS appeal, but we have to get closer to Sunday to see what they plan on doing.


12/26/17, 05:15 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Jordan Howard is overvalued in MFL10s

My Most Overvalued Players in MFL10s by Stagg Party

Posted by Stagg Party on 07/13/17

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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Through the course of piling up some MFL10s (mfl10s.com) this offseason I have a leg up on drafting, as I have literally been doing it since February. MFL10s have their own sort of cult following with over 2,000 drafts completed to date. MFL10s are PPR bestball drafts where you do not need to set a weekly lineup balancing the demand of being in too many leagues. Because of the following @fantasyADHD has created a great real-time ADP application for you to follow along and also make better decisions while drafting, you can see that work at http://fantasyadhd.com/mfl10_live/ and play around with a variety of settings. MFL10s has a mix of analysts and casual drafters, allowing you to sharpen your fantasy football knife while others are still enjoying spring break. Roster construction is a very important part of MFL10s, but this is a piece outside of those confines, as great work has already been done in that area. If you want to learn more about the roster construction side of MFL10s one of the best follows is @beerswater of rotoviz and rotogrinders.

 

Let’s look at a few players and where they are currently going, and why I feel that they are overvalued. These guys aren’t on many of my rosters so feel free to hit that draft button.

 


Jordan Howard – Current ADP #16

While I like Jordan Howard as a top-10 running back enough this season, I think he is being overdrafted in the overall scheme of the draft. Running backs have stormed back after an outside of trend season last year and have an ADP that is much more similar to the days of old. So while I like Jordan Howard’s eighth spot among running backs, I am much more likely to draft a wide receiver when it is time to press submit on Jordan Howard. Howard does possess some reasons to be skeptical however, as he had a fairly unprecedented rookie season as there have been 46 instances in NFL History of RBs with 250 or more attempts averaging over 5.05 yards per carry. The season after domination like that? The average running back lost .82 yards per carry and only three running backs have had a better yards per carry average the next season and they are just some guys named Barry Sanders, Jim Brown, and Marshall Faulk. The Indiana product also dominated against light fronts averaging 6.15 yards per carry with six or fewer men in the box. When defenses stacked the box, with eight or more men in the box, Howard averaged a paltry 2.82 yards per carry. Howard won’t be sneaking up on anyone this season especially with quarterback play by Mike Glennon or rookie Mitch Trubisky. Howard is also expected to lose passing game work to Benny Cunningham or rookie Tarik Cohen, and with the negative game scripts Chicago is sure to be playing with next season, this could be a big loss after seeing 50 targets in his rookie season. The optimists will hope the optometrists did their job with J-How’s eye surgery and say he will find the endzone more with added volume, but Jordan is not without his warts.  

 

 

Leonard Fournette – Current ADP #23 

Leonard Fournette sort of suffers from some of the same things as Jordan Howard, as he is being drafted in a spot at the back of the second round where I’d much rather draft wide receivers. Fourny also doesn’t have the advantage of running behind a great offensive line or coming into the league as an adept pass catcher in the same vein as Ezekiel Elliott. On average, just three rookies a year finish as a top-24 at his position and there are plenty of candidates to not live up to the rookie hype, Fournette just costs the most to acquire, so I will be avoiding unless his price comes down. Brandon Linder played well last season, but the rest of the offensive line has struggled, the addition of Branden Albert could pay off if he stays healthy, but that has been his Achilles heel over the last few years. The Jags will also need to completely retool their offensive mindset, going from an aerial attack to a ground and pound style, which doesn’t happen in just the blink of an eye.

 

 

Tyreek Hill – Current ADP #43

Tyreek Hill is one of the most polarizing players in the NFL and fantasy for this upcoming season, and it has nothing to do with his off-field issues. Hill burst onto the scene in the second half of the season and there was a stretch where he was a top-12 PPR receiver. The team released Jeremy Maclin and it gives a big opportunity to the second year playmaker. The issue with Hill is people are over-projecting and here’s why: they are expecting both more carries and more receptions. In the history of the NFL, there has never been a wide receiver to receive 90 catches and 30 carries in a season. If we are expecting him to take more of a receiving load, then we should be careful on his expectations as a ball carries. As the 42nd player off the board, I’d just rather spend the pick on other players in his range. Hill also averaged just 9.7 yards per reception and with Alex Smith at the helm he is unlikely to suddenly become more of a downfield threat. Smith has never had a receiver with 70 or more targets average more than 12.5 yards per catch while with Kansas City. 


 

Dalvin Cook – Current ADP #53

Dalvin Cook is one of the rookie running backs that everyone is lusting over, and as previously discussed, the number of top players that are rookies really varies per season and everyone loves the shiny new toys. I won’t pound more on his lackluster combine, but I will talk about his competition in the backfield, and the strength of the offensive line. Latavius Murray has proven capable if unspectacular when given opportunities and also scored 12 touchdowns last season. Murray is a great pass protector and coaching notes this offseason have stated that it is the biggest area in which Cook needs to improve. The Florida State product will also have to battle with Jerick McKinnon who when given limited carries has made explosive plays as a runner and a receiver. Without a rugged offensive line in front of him, albeit and improved one, and potential to lose the important touches like redzone carries and receptions, Cook could have a tough time paying off his fifth round ADP.

 


Donte Moncrief – Current ADP #61

Donte Moncrief is a fantasy love child, I am not sure who his daddy is but it has to be someone in the industry. Moncrief has looked like a man-child while in the league, he is big and fast, but still that childishness tends to show on the league, as he has struggled with inconsistency and health so far in his career. Moncrief has seen his yards per catch dip in every season since entering the league and has per game averages of 3.1 catches on 5.1 targets for 36.2 yards. The 16 game pace for that so you don’t have to grab your calculators is: 50 catches on 82 targets for 580 yards. Moncrief’s saving grace has been his ability to score touchdowns, hauling in thirteen of them over the last two seasons. At this stage, projecting Moncrief for 1,000 yards is a big stretch, so lets look at some high touchdown guys who don’t pick up the yards. Since 2005, the receiver with the most touchdowns and under 1,000 yards in a season is James Jones in 2012, when he scored 14. In fact Aaron Rodgers has supported 3 receivers with 12+ touchdowns and under 1,000 yards since 2005, and he is the only quarterback to do so. So if we cap Moncrief at 11 touchdowns and 800 yards we are maybe looking at an upside of WR 24, receivers being drafted behind him have more than that.


 

DeVante Parker – Current ADP #70

DeVante Parker is entering his third year in the league where all receivers break out, I mean it is a fact, a fact that has been disproven over the last few years as spread style offenses have gotten receivers more comfortable in the passing game than ever before. Parker is otherworldly talented and can make tough grabs in contested situations. Unfortunately for Parker though he plays in the most low volume offense in the entire league. The Dolphins are focused on running the ball first and foremost, and then when they go to pass they have a high volume receiver in Jarvis Landry. They also have one of the best deep threats in the league in Kenny Stills who scored nine touchdowns last season. This doesn’t even talk about the redzone where the Dolphins added Julius Thomas who caught 12 touchdown passes in each of his two seasons under Gase in Denver. Tannehill has never thrown more than 27 touchdown passes in a season and has seen his attempts per game under Gase shrink. All in all, I am not buying a breakout for Parker and unwilling to spend a mid sixth round pick on him when there are more proven contributors with upside still on the board.

 


Jameis Winston – Current ADP #83

First let me start with this caveat, I think Jameis Winston will be a good fantasy quarterback this year, but he is being drafted to high, just like any QB after the top two tiers off the board, the first one looks the worst. Hell, Matt Ryan is going behind him. Jameis is currently all the rage after the team added D-Jax (A 30-year old speed wide receiver with a history of injuries, hasn’t played a full season since 2013) Chris Godwin (who unfortunately might not see the field as much as he should because of other weapons) and O.J. Howard (rookie tight ends historically don’t do much in their first seasons) this offseason. As the sixth or seventh quarterback off the board I have worries for a quarterback whose team was at their best when he wasn’t asked to throw more, why change a formula that has won you football games? Let’s also play a game of our own, choose between these two quarterbacks and their average seasons over the last two years:

 

Player A: 361/615 58.9% completions. 4,166 yards 29 touchdowns to 17 interceptions, 55 rushes for 334 yards and 2.5 rushing touchdowns.

 

Player B: 328/551 59.5% completions, 4067 yards 25 touchdowns to 16.5 interceptions, 52 rushes for 189 yards and 3.5 rushing touchdowns.

 

Which Player are you picking, and this doesn’t even factor in cost where player A is going 5 rounds later? Scroll down to the bottom to see whom each player is.

 


Delanie Walker – Current ADP #95

For once, I think tight ends are properly valued. With Gronk around pick 20 and Kelce maybe a tad high at pick 30, the price is right. There is about a tight end a round off the board after them, but suddenly Delanie Walker comes up and a run starts. While I like Walker, his value has been damaged this offseason, not great for a soon-to-be 34 year old tight end who set a new career high in touchdown grabs last season. Walker has so much added competition with Corey Davis and Taywan Taylor added in the draft and expected to make an impact. Not to mention, Johnnu Smith who is also a move tight end and the recent addition of Eric Decker who can play the slot better than Walker. With Anthony Fasano gone, Delanie Walker could be forced to play the in-line tight end position and block more than he has in the past three straight 100-target seasons. With added weaponry and a tweaked roll, Walker could have a hard time surpassing the 100-targets he has become accustomed too and without added touchdowns, which seem far-fetched will have a hard time making up for them. When it comes time to take Walker, I’d rather take a pass and wait a round for the likes of Ertz and the Black Unicorn.

 

 

Player A: Blake Bortles

Player B: Jameis Winston 

 

 

Check out my most undervalued players here. 

 

 

By Stagg Party

 

 

 

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