March 24, 2018


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Cleveland Browns

Money Ball: The Sequel

Hate to start out the offseason with the Cleveland Browns, but they are makin’ moves!
Browns acquired: Tyrod Taylor, Jarvis Landry, Damarious Randall
Browns gave up: 2018 3rd-round pick (No. 65), 2018 4th-round pick, 2019 7th-round pick, DeShone Kizer

Building with experienced quality performers that have something to prove, by selling inconsequential draft picks is exactly what Sashi Brown was building up for. It’s a shame he won’t be around to reap the rewards, but these are quality moves for a win-now mentality.

03/09/18, 09:37 PM CST by Wheeler


Tyrod Taylor

Buffalo Bills

Hue Looks To TyGoat

Browns left tackle Joe Thomas, who's pondering his future, is a fan of Tyrod Taylor and has said so on the ThomaHawk Show podcast.

Tyrod is just one season removed (2016) from being the QB11 in average fantasy ppg, including seven 20+ point weeks and six 15+ point weeks. Given the current talent on the O-line and skill position weapons he could improve on those numbers. He has the potential to be this year’s Alex Smith, definitely heading my late-round (12+) QB picks now.

03/09/18, 09:32 PM CST by Wheeler


Deshone Kizer

Cleveland Browns

Packers Get In On The Fun

The Packers have traded for QB DeShone Kizer from the Browns to Green Bay.

This is the best possible scenario for Kizer, who was thrown into the fire last season. Getting the chance to develop and learn behind the best in the business is the best chance he has for longevity.

03/09/18, 09:30 PM CST by Wheeler


Torrey Smith

Philadelphia Eagles

On The Move Again

The Eagles trade WR Torrey Smith to the Panthers for CB Daryl Worley. Torrey Smith could fill the old Ted Ginn role which makes this fairly interesting. Stagg Party says it’s more of a boost for Cam than Torrey himself.

This is an absolute perfect fit, someone who isn’t going to demand the ball, but can take the top off a defense while McCaffrey, Olsen, and Cam work underneath. Torrey is looking like a great late-round flyer.

03/09/18, 09:28 PM CST by Wheeler


DeMarco Murray

Tennessee Titans

Henry Hype Train Has Clear Track

DeMarco Murray was released by the Titans.
No surprise here, expect Derick Henry to be a lead back with 250+ touches, but they will bring in someone that will play the third-down, pass-catching role out of the backfield. I wouldn’t be surprised if they sign someone like Jerick McKinnon or Rex Burkhead, or even Darren Sproles or Charles Sims. There are also plenty of options in the NFL draft, Henry won’t be a true “Bell Cow.”

03/09/18, 09:17 PM CST by Wheeler


Marquise Goodwin

San Francisco 49ers

The Name Says It All

Marquise Goodwin and the 49ers have agreed to a 3yr extension worth $20.3M & 10M guaranteed.

Shanahan has found his big-play threat at a reasonable price. Goodwin caught 56 balls for 962 yards last season, but only had two TD’s. None of his six longest plays (33+ yards) were from Garoppollo so it leads me to believe they will still be looking for a top of the line WR, even with Garcon coming back from injury.

03/09/18, 09:15 PM CST by Wheeler


Jonathan Stewart

Carolina Panthers

The Search Is On

Former Panthers RB Jonathan Stewart is visiting the Seahawks today, source says. Seattle is looking at all options to get that ground game going.

This would be an interesting landing spot for Stewart, but no RB available in free agency is going to do spit behind this Swiss-cheese O-line.

03/09/18, 09:13 PM CST by Wheeler


New York Giants

Building Blocks

NFL draft insider Tony Pauline says "belief" around the league is free agent OG Andrew Norwell signing with the Giants is "a done deal."
The top guard on the market, Norwell was one of ex-Panthers GM Dave Gettleman's most-prized discoveries as an undrafted free agent. Gettleman now runs the Giants, who have needs all over the line.

I like anything the Giants can do to repair this disheveled O-line. Building a line through free-agency is almost always a better option than through the draft, but I would still like to see them trade back in the draft and grab Quenton Nelson, OG, Notre Dame.

03/09/18, 09:11 PM CST by Wheeler


Dion Lewis

New England Patriots

Pass Catching Backs Set To Dominate

On first downs this year, the Eagles allow a 65% success rate on RB-passes. That ranks 29th in the league. Dion Lewis averaged 6.5 YPA and a 59% success rate, and James White averaged 7.7 YPA and a 58% success rate on first down passes this season.

02/04/18, 10:36 AM CST by Wheeler


James White

New England Patriots

Pass Catching Backs Set To Dominate

On first downs this year, the Eagles allow a 65% success rate on RB-passes. That ranks 29th in the league. Dion Lewis averaged 6.5 YPA and a 59% success rate, and James White averaged 7.7 YPA and a 58% success rate on first down passes this season.

02/04/18, 10:36 AM CST by Wheeler


Philadelphia Eagles

Attack With 11

The Patriots defense is particularly susceptible to runs out of 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRs), allowing a 61% success rate and 6.0 YPC to offenses when rushing from this formation. The Eagles are one of the most run heavy teams from 11 personnel, recording nearly 60% of their total rushes from 11 formation. The Patriots haven’t faced teams like this often, the teams the Pats faced in the playoffs, Tennessee and Jacksonville were last and 5th lowest respectively rushing from 11 formation. This is a massive advantage for the Eagles if they recognize it and use it.

02/04/18, 10:32 AM CST by Wheeler


Jay Ajayi

Philadelphia Eagles

To The Left, To The Left

New England started the season off with one of the worst rush defenses in the entire league, but things have really shifted over the second half of the year. Prior to their Week 9 bye, the Patriots had allowed a 44.70% Success Rate to opposing running backs, the third-worst in the league. That's dropped to about 38% since, and they've had the fifth-best rush defense by Success Rate since Week 12. New England's especially been good at stopping runs to the left side of the field, which just so happens to be where Jay Ajayi has really made a mark since joining the Eagles in Week 9.
I don’t look for Ajayi to make his mark in this game. I know it’s a lazy narrative, but a Blount revenge game seems to really be in the cards here.

02/04/18, 10:30 AM CST by Wheeler


Zach Ertz

Philadelphia Eagles

Pats Could Hit'em Where It Ertz

Zach Ertz leads the Eagles in targets (39) with Foles under center, drawing at least eight in three of their four full games together. Keyed by FS Devin McCourty and SS Patrick Chung, the Pats allowed the NFL’s tenth-fewest receiving yards to tight ends (720) this season, only four opposing tight ends have reached 50 yards through 18 Patriots games.
If Foles continues to pepper Ertz with targets we could see a big game for Chung or McCourty.

02/04/18, 10:25 AM CST by Wheeler


Nelson Agholor

Philadelphia Eagles

Plenty Of Fluids

The Eagles’ biggest pass-catcher personnel mismatch is Nelson Agholor against Patriots slot corner Eric Rowe. Rowe can struggle with quick change of direction, Agholor’s foremost strength. Agholor runs 87% of his routes in the slot, and New England allowed solid games to Eric Decker (6/85/0) in the Divisional Round, and Allen Hurns (6/80/0) in the AFC title game. Agholor still ranks second behind Ertz in Foles targets (29), but has had a surprisingly quiet playoffs with just 7 targets.
This will have to change if the Eagles plan on moving the ball, but Agholor has been sick with the flu for the past few days. He received intravenous fluids Saturday and will play, but it doesn’t sound like he’ll be 100%.

02/04/18, 10:22 AM CST by Wheeler


Danny Amendola

New England Patriots

Danny Playoffs

The Eagles finished second worst this season in percentage of passing yards allowed coming after the catch. Philadelphia struggled on short and intermediate throws this season, specifically to the middle of the field, where they allowed the third-most yards per passing play in the league. Brady was a top-five player in passer rating on these types of tosses. Amendola's been a monster in this year's playoffs for New England, grabbing hold of 22 targets in just two contests, accounting for over 24% of New England's targets. He should continue to play a role on Super Bowl Sunday.

02/04/18, 10:20 AM CST by Wheeler


Rex Burkhead

New England Patriots

Rex Back

Despite being listed as questionable for Sunday’s AFC Championship game vs. Jaguars, it appears as though Patriots’ RB Rex Burkhead will play.
This will cut into the 13 targets Amendola saw last week.

01/20/18, 10:49 PM CST by Wheeler


Adam Thielen

Minnesota Vikings

Making The Wright Move?

Adam Thielen (back) is questionable for Sunday's NFC Championship game against the Eagles.
He's fully expected to play after limited practices the last two days. He probably won’t be 100 percent so if you’re putting in a line-up you might want to pivot to Diggs or save some money and drop down to Jarius Wright who grabbed three-of-six targets for 56 yards Sunday and has established himself as the number three WR in this offense.

01/20/18, 10:31 PM CST by Wheeler


Leonard Fournette

Jacksonville Jaguars

Ankle In Question Again

Fournette aggravated his ankle in the Divisional Round and was limited early in the week. He was left off the injury report for Sunday's AFC Championship game. Fournette saw a heavy workload last week getting 27 touches in Jacksonville's upset of the Steelers. T.J. Yeldon rushed five times for 20 yards and a touchdown and caught 3-of-3 targets for 57 yards. If you’re looking for a cheaper option I expect we see Yeldon to be used to keep Fournette from aggravating the injury early.

01/20/18, 10:23 PM CST by Wheeler


Tom Brady

New England Patriots

Give Him A Hand

Reports are that Tom Brady threw the ball "incredibly well" during Friday's practice. He is listed as questionable for Sunday's AFC Championship game against Jacksonville, but I don’t think there was any real doubt that he’d play. Keep in mind what D-Rex spoke about on the Pyro Podcast 303 andScott Barrett tweeted about Brady last week:
Weeks 1-10: 21.2 fantasy points per game, 110.9 passer rating
Weeks 11-17: 14.2 fantasy points per game, 87.3 passer rating
The hand injury on top of his achilles injury, as well as going against the Jags #1 rated pass defense could keep the Patriots attack grounded this week. Lewis is the obvious play, but if Burkhead (Q) comes back it could be he or White that steals the show.

01/20/18, 10:22 PM CST by Wheeler


Tom Brady

New England Patriots

Tom Still Terrific?

Tom Brady was first listed on the team's injury report with an Achilles injury heading in to Week 11.
Weeks 1-10: 21.2 fantasy points per game, 110.9 passer rating
Weeks 11-17: 14.2 fantasy points per game, 87.3 passer rating

Fantasy Goo: This should line up for a good week for Brady, Tennessee is 8th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, but just below average against QB’s. The Patriots are 13 point favorites on Saturday Night, if Brady doesn’t do it at home in prime-time then something is wrong.

01/09/18, 07:30 PM CST by Wheeler


Alvin Kamara

New Orleans Saints

Primary Role Shifting

Saints have run 5 times at/inside opponent's 5-yard line over last 4 weeks (including playoffs):
Alvin Kamara 3 carries, Zach Line 1, Mark Ingram 1. Kamara was in on all 3 Saints run plays at/inside 5 vs. Panthers last week, including Line's 1-yard TD run.

Fantasy Goo: If you’re trying to decide between Kamara and Ingram for the playoff run, Kamara looks to be the much better play.

01/09/18, 07:20 PM CST by Wheeler


Jordan Howard is overvalued in MFL10s

My Most Overvalued Players in MFL10s by Stagg Party

Posted by Stagg Party on 07/13/17

by   The Archer


More Articals


Through the course of piling up some MFL10s ( this offseason I have a leg up on drafting, as I have literally been doing it since February. MFL10s have their own sort of cult following with over 2,000 drafts completed to date. MFL10s are PPR bestball drafts where you do not need to set a weekly lineup balancing the demand of being in too many leagues. Because of the following @fantasyADHD has created a great real-time ADP application for you to follow along and also make better decisions while drafting, you can see that work at and play around with a variety of settings. MFL10s has a mix of analysts and casual drafters, allowing you to sharpen your fantasy football knife while others are still enjoying spring break. Roster construction is a very important part of MFL10s, but this is a piece outside of those confines, as great work has already been done in that area. If you want to learn more about the roster construction side of MFL10s one of the best follows is @beerswater of rotoviz and rotogrinders.


Let’s look at a few players and where they are currently going, and why I feel that they are overvalued. These guys aren’t on many of my rosters so feel free to hit that draft button.


Jordan Howard – Current ADP #16

While I like Jordan Howard as a top-10 running back enough this season, I think he is being overdrafted in the overall scheme of the draft. Running backs have stormed back after an outside of trend season last year and have an ADP that is much more similar to the days of old. So while I like Jordan Howard’s eighth spot among running backs, I am much more likely to draft a wide receiver when it is time to press submit on Jordan Howard. Howard does possess some reasons to be skeptical however, as he had a fairly unprecedented rookie season as there have been 46 instances in NFL History of RBs with 250 or more attempts averaging over 5.05 yards per carry. The season after domination like that? The average running back lost .82 yards per carry and only three running backs have had a better yards per carry average the next season and they are just some guys named Barry Sanders, Jim Brown, and Marshall Faulk. The Indiana product also dominated against light fronts averaging 6.15 yards per carry with six or fewer men in the box. When defenses stacked the box, with eight or more men in the box, Howard averaged a paltry 2.82 yards per carry. Howard won’t be sneaking up on anyone this season especially with quarterback play by Mike Glennon or rookie Mitch Trubisky. Howard is also expected to lose passing game work to Benny Cunningham or rookie Tarik Cohen, and with the negative game scripts Chicago is sure to be playing with next season, this could be a big loss after seeing 50 targets in his rookie season. The optimists will hope the optometrists did their job with J-How’s eye surgery and say he will find the endzone more with added volume, but Jordan is not without his warts.  



Leonard Fournette – Current ADP #23 

Leonard Fournette sort of suffers from some of the same things as Jordan Howard, as he is being drafted in a spot at the back of the second round where I’d much rather draft wide receivers. Fourny also doesn’t have the advantage of running behind a great offensive line or coming into the league as an adept pass catcher in the same vein as Ezekiel Elliott. On average, just three rookies a year finish as a top-24 at his position and there are plenty of candidates to not live up to the rookie hype, Fournette just costs the most to acquire, so I will be avoiding unless his price comes down. Brandon Linder played well last season, but the rest of the offensive line has struggled, the addition of Branden Albert could pay off if he stays healthy, but that has been his Achilles heel over the last few years. The Jags will also need to completely retool their offensive mindset, going from an aerial attack to a ground and pound style, which doesn’t happen in just the blink of an eye.



Tyreek Hill – Current ADP #43

Tyreek Hill is one of the most polarizing players in the NFL and fantasy for this upcoming season, and it has nothing to do with his off-field issues. Hill burst onto the scene in the second half of the season and there was a stretch where he was a top-12 PPR receiver. The team released Jeremy Maclin and it gives a big opportunity to the second year playmaker. The issue with Hill is people are over-projecting and here’s why: they are expecting both more carries and more receptions. In the history of the NFL, there has never been a wide receiver to receive 90 catches and 30 carries in a season. If we are expecting him to take more of a receiving load, then we should be careful on his expectations as a ball carries. As the 42nd player off the board, I’d just rather spend the pick on other players in his range. Hill also averaged just 9.7 yards per reception and with Alex Smith at the helm he is unlikely to suddenly become more of a downfield threat. Smith has never had a receiver with 70 or more targets average more than 12.5 yards per catch while with Kansas City. 


Dalvin Cook – Current ADP #53

Dalvin Cook is one of the rookie running backs that everyone is lusting over, and as previously discussed, the number of top players that are rookies really varies per season and everyone loves the shiny new toys. I won’t pound more on his lackluster combine, but I will talk about his competition in the backfield, and the strength of the offensive line. Latavius Murray has proven capable if unspectacular when given opportunities and also scored 12 touchdowns last season. Murray is a great pass protector and coaching notes this offseason have stated that it is the biggest area in which Cook needs to improve. The Florida State product will also have to battle with Jerick McKinnon who when given limited carries has made explosive plays as a runner and a receiver. Without a rugged offensive line in front of him, albeit and improved one, and potential to lose the important touches like redzone carries and receptions, Cook could have a tough time paying off his fifth round ADP.


Donte Moncrief – Current ADP #61

Donte Moncrief is a fantasy love child, I am not sure who his daddy is but it has to be someone in the industry. Moncrief has looked like a man-child while in the league, he is big and fast, but still that childishness tends to show on the league, as he has struggled with inconsistency and health so far in his career. Moncrief has seen his yards per catch dip in every season since entering the league and has per game averages of 3.1 catches on 5.1 targets for 36.2 yards. The 16 game pace for that so you don’t have to grab your calculators is: 50 catches on 82 targets for 580 yards. Moncrief’s saving grace has been his ability to score touchdowns, hauling in thirteen of them over the last two seasons. At this stage, projecting Moncrief for 1,000 yards is a big stretch, so lets look at some high touchdown guys who don’t pick up the yards. Since 2005, the receiver with the most touchdowns and under 1,000 yards in a season is James Jones in 2012, when he scored 14. In fact Aaron Rodgers has supported 3 receivers with 12+ touchdowns and under 1,000 yards since 2005, and he is the only quarterback to do so. So if we cap Moncrief at 11 touchdowns and 800 yards we are maybe looking at an upside of WR 24, receivers being drafted behind him have more than that.


DeVante Parker – Current ADP #70

DeVante Parker is entering his third year in the league where all receivers break out, I mean it is a fact, a fact that has been disproven over the last few years as spread style offenses have gotten receivers more comfortable in the passing game than ever before. Parker is otherworldly talented and can make tough grabs in contested situations. Unfortunately for Parker though he plays in the most low volume offense in the entire league. The Dolphins are focused on running the ball first and foremost, and then when they go to pass they have a high volume receiver in Jarvis Landry. They also have one of the best deep threats in the league in Kenny Stills who scored nine touchdowns last season. This doesn’t even talk about the redzone where the Dolphins added Julius Thomas who caught 12 touchdown passes in each of his two seasons under Gase in Denver. Tannehill has never thrown more than 27 touchdown passes in a season and has seen his attempts per game under Gase shrink. All in all, I am not buying a breakout for Parker and unwilling to spend a mid sixth round pick on him when there are more proven contributors with upside still on the board.


Jameis Winston – Current ADP #83

First let me start with this caveat, I think Jameis Winston will be a good fantasy quarterback this year, but he is being drafted to high, just like any QB after the top two tiers off the board, the first one looks the worst. Hell, Matt Ryan is going behind him. Jameis is currently all the rage after the team added D-Jax (A 30-year old speed wide receiver with a history of injuries, hasn’t played a full season since 2013) Chris Godwin (who unfortunately might not see the field as much as he should because of other weapons) and O.J. Howard (rookie tight ends historically don’t do much in their first seasons) this offseason. As the sixth or seventh quarterback off the board I have worries for a quarterback whose team was at their best when he wasn’t asked to throw more, why change a formula that has won you football games? Let’s also play a game of our own, choose between these two quarterbacks and their average seasons over the last two years:


Player A: 361/615 58.9% completions. 4,166 yards 29 touchdowns to 17 interceptions, 55 rushes for 334 yards and 2.5 rushing touchdowns.


Player B: 328/551 59.5% completions, 4067 yards 25 touchdowns to 16.5 interceptions, 52 rushes for 189 yards and 3.5 rushing touchdowns.


Which Player are you picking, and this doesn’t even factor in cost where player A is going 5 rounds later? Scroll down to the bottom to see whom each player is.


Delanie Walker – Current ADP #95

For once, I think tight ends are properly valued. With Gronk around pick 20 and Kelce maybe a tad high at pick 30, the price is right. There is about a tight end a round off the board after them, but suddenly Delanie Walker comes up and a run starts. While I like Walker, his value has been damaged this offseason, not great for a soon-to-be 34 year old tight end who set a new career high in touchdown grabs last season. Walker has so much added competition with Corey Davis and Taywan Taylor added in the draft and expected to make an impact. Not to mention, Johnnu Smith who is also a move tight end and the recent addition of Eric Decker who can play the slot better than Walker. With Anthony Fasano gone, Delanie Walker could be forced to play the in-line tight end position and block more than he has in the past three straight 100-target seasons. With added weaponry and a tweaked roll, Walker could have a hard time surpassing the 100-targets he has become accustomed too and without added touchdowns, which seem far-fetched will have a hard time making up for them. When it comes time to take Walker, I’d rather take a pass and wait a round for the likes of Ertz and the Black Unicorn.



Player A: Blake Bortles

Player B: Jameis Winston 



Check out my most undervalued players here. 



By Stagg Party




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