March 24, 2018


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Cleveland Browns

Money Ball: The Sequel

Hate to start out the offseason with the Cleveland Browns, but they are makin’ moves!
Browns acquired: Tyrod Taylor, Jarvis Landry, Damarious Randall
Browns gave up: 2018 3rd-round pick (No. 65), 2018 4th-round pick, 2019 7th-round pick, DeShone Kizer

Building with experienced quality performers that have something to prove, by selling inconsequential draft picks is exactly what Sashi Brown was building up for. It’s a shame he won’t be around to reap the rewards, but these are quality moves for a win-now mentality.

03/09/18, 09:37 PM CST by Wheeler


Tyrod Taylor

Buffalo Bills

Hue Looks To TyGoat

Browns left tackle Joe Thomas, who's pondering his future, is a fan of Tyrod Taylor and has said so on the ThomaHawk Show podcast.

Tyrod is just one season removed (2016) from being the QB11 in average fantasy ppg, including seven 20+ point weeks and six 15+ point weeks. Given the current talent on the O-line and skill position weapons he could improve on those numbers. He has the potential to be this year’s Alex Smith, definitely heading my late-round (12+) QB picks now.

03/09/18, 09:32 PM CST by Wheeler


Deshone Kizer

Cleveland Browns

Packers Get In On The Fun

The Packers have traded for QB DeShone Kizer from the Browns to Green Bay.

This is the best possible scenario for Kizer, who was thrown into the fire last season. Getting the chance to develop and learn behind the best in the business is the best chance he has for longevity.

03/09/18, 09:30 PM CST by Wheeler


Torrey Smith

Philadelphia Eagles

On The Move Again

The Eagles trade WR Torrey Smith to the Panthers for CB Daryl Worley. Torrey Smith could fill the old Ted Ginn role which makes this fairly interesting. Stagg Party says it’s more of a boost for Cam than Torrey himself.

This is an absolute perfect fit, someone who isn’t going to demand the ball, but can take the top off a defense while McCaffrey, Olsen, and Cam work underneath. Torrey is looking like a great late-round flyer.

03/09/18, 09:28 PM CST by Wheeler


DeMarco Murray

Tennessee Titans

Henry Hype Train Has Clear Track

DeMarco Murray was released by the Titans.
No surprise here, expect Derick Henry to be a lead back with 250+ touches, but they will bring in someone that will play the third-down, pass-catching role out of the backfield. I wouldn’t be surprised if they sign someone like Jerick McKinnon or Rex Burkhead, or even Darren Sproles or Charles Sims. There are also plenty of options in the NFL draft, Henry won’t be a true “Bell Cow.”

03/09/18, 09:17 PM CST by Wheeler


Marquise Goodwin

San Francisco 49ers

The Name Says It All

Marquise Goodwin and the 49ers have agreed to a 3yr extension worth $20.3M & 10M guaranteed.

Shanahan has found his big-play threat at a reasonable price. Goodwin caught 56 balls for 962 yards last season, but only had two TD’s. None of his six longest plays (33+ yards) were from Garoppollo so it leads me to believe they will still be looking for a top of the line WR, even with Garcon coming back from injury.

03/09/18, 09:15 PM CST by Wheeler


Jonathan Stewart

Carolina Panthers

The Search Is On

Former Panthers RB Jonathan Stewart is visiting the Seahawks today, source says. Seattle is looking at all options to get that ground game going.

This would be an interesting landing spot for Stewart, but no RB available in free agency is going to do spit behind this Swiss-cheese O-line.

03/09/18, 09:13 PM CST by Wheeler


New York Giants

Building Blocks

NFL draft insider Tony Pauline says "belief" around the league is free agent OG Andrew Norwell signing with the Giants is "a done deal."
The top guard on the market, Norwell was one of ex-Panthers GM Dave Gettleman's most-prized discoveries as an undrafted free agent. Gettleman now runs the Giants, who have needs all over the line.

I like anything the Giants can do to repair this disheveled O-line. Building a line through free-agency is almost always a better option than through the draft, but I would still like to see them trade back in the draft and grab Quenton Nelson, OG, Notre Dame.

03/09/18, 09:11 PM CST by Wheeler


Dion Lewis

New England Patriots

Pass Catching Backs Set To Dominate

On first downs this year, the Eagles allow a 65% success rate on RB-passes. That ranks 29th in the league. Dion Lewis averaged 6.5 YPA and a 59% success rate, and James White averaged 7.7 YPA and a 58% success rate on first down passes this season.

02/04/18, 10:36 AM CST by Wheeler


James White

New England Patriots

Pass Catching Backs Set To Dominate

On first downs this year, the Eagles allow a 65% success rate on RB-passes. That ranks 29th in the league. Dion Lewis averaged 6.5 YPA and a 59% success rate, and James White averaged 7.7 YPA and a 58% success rate on first down passes this season.

02/04/18, 10:36 AM CST by Wheeler


Philadelphia Eagles

Attack With 11

The Patriots defense is particularly susceptible to runs out of 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRs), allowing a 61% success rate and 6.0 YPC to offenses when rushing from this formation. The Eagles are one of the most run heavy teams from 11 personnel, recording nearly 60% of their total rushes from 11 formation. The Patriots haven’t faced teams like this often, the teams the Pats faced in the playoffs, Tennessee and Jacksonville were last and 5th lowest respectively rushing from 11 formation. This is a massive advantage for the Eagles if they recognize it and use it.

02/04/18, 10:32 AM CST by Wheeler


Jay Ajayi

Philadelphia Eagles

To The Left, To The Left

New England started the season off with one of the worst rush defenses in the entire league, but things have really shifted over the second half of the year. Prior to their Week 9 bye, the Patriots had allowed a 44.70% Success Rate to opposing running backs, the third-worst in the league. That's dropped to about 38% since, and they've had the fifth-best rush defense by Success Rate since Week 12. New England's especially been good at stopping runs to the left side of the field, which just so happens to be where Jay Ajayi has really made a mark since joining the Eagles in Week 9.
I don’t look for Ajayi to make his mark in this game. I know it’s a lazy narrative, but a Blount revenge game seems to really be in the cards here.

02/04/18, 10:30 AM CST by Wheeler


Zach Ertz

Philadelphia Eagles

Pats Could Hit'em Where It Ertz

Zach Ertz leads the Eagles in targets (39) with Foles under center, drawing at least eight in three of their four full games together. Keyed by FS Devin McCourty and SS Patrick Chung, the Pats allowed the NFL’s tenth-fewest receiving yards to tight ends (720) this season, only four opposing tight ends have reached 50 yards through 18 Patriots games.
If Foles continues to pepper Ertz with targets we could see a big game for Chung or McCourty.

02/04/18, 10:25 AM CST by Wheeler


Nelson Agholor

Philadelphia Eagles

Plenty Of Fluids

The Eagles’ biggest pass-catcher personnel mismatch is Nelson Agholor against Patriots slot corner Eric Rowe. Rowe can struggle with quick change of direction, Agholor’s foremost strength. Agholor runs 87% of his routes in the slot, and New England allowed solid games to Eric Decker (6/85/0) in the Divisional Round, and Allen Hurns (6/80/0) in the AFC title game. Agholor still ranks second behind Ertz in Foles targets (29), but has had a surprisingly quiet playoffs with just 7 targets.
This will have to change if the Eagles plan on moving the ball, but Agholor has been sick with the flu for the past few days. He received intravenous fluids Saturday and will play, but it doesn’t sound like he’ll be 100%.

02/04/18, 10:22 AM CST by Wheeler


Danny Amendola

New England Patriots

Danny Playoffs

The Eagles finished second worst this season in percentage of passing yards allowed coming after the catch. Philadelphia struggled on short and intermediate throws this season, specifically to the middle of the field, where they allowed the third-most yards per passing play in the league. Brady was a top-five player in passer rating on these types of tosses. Amendola's been a monster in this year's playoffs for New England, grabbing hold of 22 targets in just two contests, accounting for over 24% of New England's targets. He should continue to play a role on Super Bowl Sunday.

02/04/18, 10:20 AM CST by Wheeler


Rex Burkhead

New England Patriots

Rex Back

Despite being listed as questionable for Sunday’s AFC Championship game vs. Jaguars, it appears as though Patriots’ RB Rex Burkhead will play.
This will cut into the 13 targets Amendola saw last week.

01/20/18, 10:49 PM CST by Wheeler


Adam Thielen

Minnesota Vikings

Making The Wright Move?

Adam Thielen (back) is questionable for Sunday's NFC Championship game against the Eagles.
He's fully expected to play after limited practices the last two days. He probably won’t be 100 percent so if you’re putting in a line-up you might want to pivot to Diggs or save some money and drop down to Jarius Wright who grabbed three-of-six targets for 56 yards Sunday and has established himself as the number three WR in this offense.

01/20/18, 10:31 PM CST by Wheeler


Leonard Fournette

Jacksonville Jaguars

Ankle In Question Again

Fournette aggravated his ankle in the Divisional Round and was limited early in the week. He was left off the injury report for Sunday's AFC Championship game. Fournette saw a heavy workload last week getting 27 touches in Jacksonville's upset of the Steelers. T.J. Yeldon rushed five times for 20 yards and a touchdown and caught 3-of-3 targets for 57 yards. If you’re looking for a cheaper option I expect we see Yeldon to be used to keep Fournette from aggravating the injury early.

01/20/18, 10:23 PM CST by Wheeler


Tom Brady

New England Patriots

Give Him A Hand

Reports are that Tom Brady threw the ball "incredibly well" during Friday's practice. He is listed as questionable for Sunday's AFC Championship game against Jacksonville, but I don’t think there was any real doubt that he’d play. Keep in mind what D-Rex spoke about on the Pyro Podcast 303 andScott Barrett tweeted about Brady last week:
Weeks 1-10: 21.2 fantasy points per game, 110.9 passer rating
Weeks 11-17: 14.2 fantasy points per game, 87.3 passer rating
The hand injury on top of his achilles injury, as well as going against the Jags #1 rated pass defense could keep the Patriots attack grounded this week. Lewis is the obvious play, but if Burkhead (Q) comes back it could be he or White that steals the show.

01/20/18, 10:22 PM CST by Wheeler


Tom Brady

New England Patriots

Tom Still Terrific?

Tom Brady was first listed on the team's injury report with an Achilles injury heading in to Week 11.
Weeks 1-10: 21.2 fantasy points per game, 110.9 passer rating
Weeks 11-17: 14.2 fantasy points per game, 87.3 passer rating

Fantasy Goo: This should line up for a good week for Brady, Tennessee is 8th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, but just below average against QB’s. The Patriots are 13 point favorites on Saturday Night, if Brady doesn’t do it at home in prime-time then something is wrong.

01/09/18, 07:30 PM CST by Wheeler


Alvin Kamara

New Orleans Saints

Primary Role Shifting

Saints have run 5 times at/inside opponent's 5-yard line over last 4 weeks (including playoffs):
Alvin Kamara 3 carries, Zach Line 1, Mark Ingram 1. Kamara was in on all 3 Saints run plays at/inside 5 vs. Panthers last week, including Line's 1-yard TD run.

Fantasy Goo: If you’re trying to decide between Kamara and Ingram for the playoff run, Kamara looks to be the much better play.

01/09/18, 07:20 PM CST by Wheeler


Dez the panther tearing it up.

My Most Undervalued Players in MFL10s by Stagg Party

Posted by d-Rx on 06/29/17

by   The Archer


More Articals


Through the course of piling up some MFL10s ( this offseason I have a leg up on drafting, as I have literally been doing it since February. MFL10s have their own sort of cult following with over 1,800 drafts completed to date. MFL10s are PPR bestball drafts where you do not need to set a weekly lineup balancing the demand of being in too many leagues. Because of the following @fantasyADHD has created a great real-time ADP application for you to follow along and also make better decisions while drafting, you can see that work at and play around with a variety of settings. MFL10s has a mix of analysts and casual drafters, allowing you to sharpen your fantasy football knife while others are still enjoying spring break. Roster construction is a very important part of MFL10s, but this is a piece outside of those confines, as great work has already been done in that area. If you want to learn more about the roster construction side of MFL10s one of the best follows is @beerswater of rotoviz and rotogrinders.


Let’s look at a few players and where they are currently going, and why I feel that they are undervalued. These guys are on more of my rosters than not, so if you want to take my ten dollars, you can start your sniping here.


Dez Bryant – Current ADP #19

Since I decided I wouldn’t cherry pick here and pick the first or second pick of the third round, and instead go a little deeper, I found myself landing with Dez, as I often do in the early parts of the second round. Dez brings a long history of fantasy dominance on his resume, including a stretch from 2012-2014 where he was one of the best wide receivers in the world. More recently, people seem to look at his numbers and think, Dez can’t exist without Romo, but let me tell you, Dez thrived after returning from injury last season. Including the playoffs, but excluding that Week 17 tilt in which he played like five plays, Dez averaged as many fantasy points as Jordy Nelson over the course of the season. At 28, Bryant also averaged the highest yards per catch mark of his career. The former Oklahoma State Cowboy, can be had at a value if you play your cards right and he finds himself on the field for all 16. I mean, he has had 10 touchdowns in his last 11 games with Dak? Is that good?



Sammy Watkins – Current ADP #32

Sammy Watkins is currently going in the middle of the third round, and if I had to I would select him earlier. First, games played in a past season actually have a negative correlation to games played in the next season, so OMG he’s injury prone people can bark up another tree. Second, through 3 seasons, Watkins has played more games than Julio Jones has, 36 to 34 with similar injury. Watkins has tallied 153/273 2,459 yards and 17 touchdowns vs. Julio’s 174/282 2,737 yards and 20 touchdowns. You can get Sammy in the third or fourth round, he is worth the risk. Third, targets are king and fantasy football, and last time I checked his main competition for targets is a rookie second rounder out of East Carolina in Zay Jones and Charles Clay who is not worth the dollars spent.



Ty Montgomery – Current ADP #49

What’s that? Are you not going to draft a running back during this fake draft you are doing in your head? Well, if you haven’t heard Ty Montgomery has officially switched positions and (un)officially(?) still gets to wear number 88, who am I kidding you knew this. You also probably know that the Packers added three rookie running backs during the draft to take his spot, but they haven’t yet and I am a believer that none of them will. Jamaal Williams is JAG who can carry the ball at an average rate, Aaron Jones is probably best as a third down back, and the third guy is a seventh round pick, lets chill out. Montgomery isn’t going to lose snaps on third down after converting from wide receiver. Those worried about Ty losing redzone work or early down work? Montgomery is actually the heaviest running back on the roster. How effective was he as a runner? Well he had more runs of 5+ yards after contact (20) on 102 carries than Lamar Miller (18) did on 318 attempts. Montgomery was one of the most elusive “running backs” in the league last season, constantly forcing broken tackles, let’s just hope that he can elude other drafters and onto my team this season.


Martavis Bryant – Current ADP #51

So far there is a theme on this list, a lot of wide receivers I can see returning plus value, at running back, they are fewer and far between. Bryant is another wide receiver I look for in the fourth or fifth rounds now that he has been completely reinstated from his suspension. Bryant is just a freak of nature with speed and length not seen since a wide receiver we really shouldn’t compare anyone too. Bryant has averaged 17.3 yards per catch in his two active seasons and has scored a touchdown on 18.4% of his receptions and 10% of his targets. These numbers don’t even include playoff games where the Alien has dominated the competition. In three playoff games  Bryant has averaged over 15 standard fantasy points a game, against some tough competition in Cincinnati, Denver, and the Baltimore Ravens. Martavis' per game average including playoffs produces a 16 game pace of 63 catches on 113 targets for 1039 yards, plus 92 rush yards and 11 total TDs. Bryant is a flat out freak, and his ADP doesn’t reflect the upside that most players are being drafted at.


Mark Ingram – Current ADP #63

Mark Ingram has seen his stock plummet since free agency and the draft, and can now be had in fifth or sixth rounds of drafts depending on the competition. The community is currently split, with some preferring Ingram and others his older counterpart in Adrian Peterson. Ingram is my clear preference here, much like I preferred Ajayi to that old buck Arian Foster last season. In#MFL10s, Ingram is the higher drafted player, being drafted a round and a half ahead of Peterson, but on other mock sites this varies, and there you can really take advantage of his price. Ingram has carried at least 50% of the load in each of the last three years, and with the slightly lower workload he has remained healthier, and the team could take the same approach with Peterson, rotating the early down work between the two in order to keep the other fresh. What Ingram does have on his side, however is he is much more effective in the passing game for a team that will drop back 650+ times this season that is incredibly important. Ingram is also one of the best pass blockers in the league, something that Adrian seemingly has no interest in doing. If Adrian Peterson gets a similar role to Hightower of the past few years, then Ingram will remain virtually unharmed in his role that saw him finish as a top-15 running back in each past two seasons.


Jimmy Graham – Current ADP #75

Jimmy Graham is currently coming off the board at the end of the sixth round and at that point, can be a value to your roster. Drafting Graham allows you to just stack two tight ends on your roster if you wish, as he possesses a solid floor and ceiling in his range of outcomes this season. Jimmy will be another year removed from his devastating knee injury, and while he made it back quicker than many imagined, including myself, he did get off to a slow start last season. Graham showed that his burst was back, averaging a career high in yards per catch and posting his highest yardage total since 2013. The Miami product also should get a bump from his quarterback in terms of potential touchdowns, as Wilson posted a TD rate of just 3.8% last season, well under his career average of 5.6%. Graham with another year of health and potential for more targets and touchdowns presents a value at his current ADP.


Theo Riddick – Current ADP #83

Running backs that can catch passes are especially important in the MFL10 format as the sites PPR set up allows players like Riddick a nice weekly floor. In PPR leagues last season, Riddick averaged over 16 fantasy points a game, and in 2015 finished as the 18th overall running back on the strength of an 80-reception season. That 80-catch season happened with some guy named Ameer Abdullah, who is being drafted two rounds ahead of him, on the field for 16 games. Riddick will continue to be a bestball asset because him receiving work provides a safe double-digit point score if no one else on your roster rocks the house that week. Theo isn’t disappearing as the third down back, and after showing more than ever as a runner last season, could be in line for an even greater role going forward, despite the Ameer hype train seemingly ready to hit full speed at any time.



Kirk Cousins – Current ADP #104

So Kirk Cousins is currently coming off the board as QB11, despite finishing as QB5 last season and QB9 the season before that. Cousins threw for nearly 5,000 yards last season and completed 68% of his passes over the last two seasons. Kirk will get hopefully his best weapon back to full health in Jordan Reed, and also upgraded in the size department with Terrelle Pryor and hopefully some impact from last season first round pick Josh Doctson. The former Michigan State signal caller could also see a bump in touchdown rate after coming in at 4.1% last season, lower than his career average of 4.6% and career high of 5.3% in 2015. If Kirk threw touchdown at just his career average last season, he would have passed Andrew Luck in scoring and finished only a hair behind the top tier of fantasy passers. While there are some concerns about losing both DeSean Jackson, who is arguably the best deep ball catcher of the past decade, and Pierre Garcon in free agency, Cousins should be able to keep the ship going down the right path as he looks to secure a long-term big money deal, hopefully elsewhere.


Eric Ebron – Current ADP #112

 The much-maligned Eric Ebron is undervalued to me, as I think he is a clear top-10 option at the position. Ebron has his share of red flags, but he also has some great indicators of future success. First, let’s look at this one from Heath Cummings at CBS Sports: Travis Kelce’s 2015 season, 103 targets 72 receptions 875 yards, Eric Ebron’s 2016 (16 game pace) 104 targets 75 receptions 875 yards. Or how about this one from the great Pat Thorman of Pro Football Focus: Since 1980 only 5 TEs had more catches than Eric Ebron through their age-23 season. (Jason Witten, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Tony Gonzalez, Todd Heap) & only 7 had more yards. Finally, how about this one from Graham Barfield of Fantasy Guru: Eric Ebron is one of 16 TEs since the 1970 merger to average 50+ Yards/Game in a single-season at 22 or 23-years-old. Now that you have heard from everyone else, let’s hear some things from me: If Eric Ebron scored at his career average rate in 2016, ~8% of catches, he would have scored 5 touchdowns, that would have made him TE8 last season ahead of Zach Ertz. Ebron has improved his catches, targets, yards per reception, and yardage each year in the league. EE (squirrel sound) is expected to play closer to 50% of his snaps in the slot this season after dropping down to 30% last year, he has a higher scoring rate from the slot and Boldin leaves behind 22 redzone targets, the third highest number in the league. Anquan also leaves behind six touchdowns on his 9 targets inside the ten-yard line, the arrow is pointing up for this now 24 year-old tight end, who the team has a ton of draft capital in, sign me up.



Kenny Britt – Current ADP #119

Kenny Britt is the new Rodney Dangerfield of fantasy football, he gets no respect, honestly though I must defer to my much older colleagues here, did I use that correctly? Britt is coming over from the Los Angeles Rams that had the worst QB play I can remember last season and still put up numbers. In 15 games, Britt hauled in 68 passes on 111 targets for 1,002 yards and 5 touchdowns. Now with the Browns, we are expecting everything to be different? Like they didn’t just pay him big money over the long term instead of just re-signing Terrelle Pryor? They did. Like Josh Gordon has yet to be reinstated? He hasn’t. Like his greatest competition for targets is a second year pro in Corey Coleman, or a rookie tight end from Miami who I am unsure if he is allowed to legally drink yet? They are. Britt will still see targets, and is being drafted as the 52nd WR off the board for a team that will need to throw to keep pace with the opposition. You interested yet? I am. 




By Stagg Party




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