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May 22, 2018
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Eric Ebron

Detroit Lions

Ebron Could Use Some Luck


Colts signed TE Eric Ebron, formerly of the Lions, to a two-year contract. Coach Frank Reich called Ebron an "elite tight end."

The last time we saw Andrew Luck healthy (2016), the Colts used 2+ TE sets at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL and had the 6th-highest target share to TEs.


04/01/18, 11:32 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Carlos Hyde

San Francisco 49ers

Hyde and Seek


Browns agreed to terms with RB Carlos Hyde, formerly of the 49ers, on a three-year, $15 million contract.

Obtaining Hyde has several trickle-down effects; first it replaces Crowell who signed with the Jets, it probably diminishes Duke Johnson’s value a bit. Hyde is a better all-around back than Crowell was and will certainly take over the goal-line work seeing that he’s got 20+ pounds on Duke. It also reduces the likelihood that Cleveland takes Saquon Barkley with the 4th pick in the draft. They will most likely look to draft a defensive player (Chubb) or trade down again.


04/01/18, 11:28 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jerick McKinnon

Minnesota Vikings

McKinnon Goes West For Gold-Rush


49ers agreed to terms with RB Jerick McKinnon, formerly of the Vikings, on a four-year, $30 million contract.

McKinnon averaged a ho-hum 3.8 yards a carry for the Vikings and scored three rushing touchdowns. By contrast, San Francisco's former lead runner, Carlos Hyde, averaged 3.9 yards an attempt in 2017 and had eight rushing touchdowns.

It appears as though Shanahan is enamored with McKinnon's athletic metrics, but I'm not so sure he was "pounding the table" to get him. This move could push the Niner's to cut Joe Williams.


04/01/18, 11:12 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.sacbee.com


Mike Wallace

Baltimore Ravens

Eagles Keep Improving


Eagles signed WR Mike Wallace to a one-year contract.
Mike Wallace can still move posting a top five max speed among wide receivers last season. He will fill the void left by Torrey Smith as a speed vertical threat.


04/01/18, 11:08 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Terrelle Pryor

Washington Redskins

Jets Searching For Weapons


Jets agreed to terms with WR Terrelle Pryor, formerly of Washington and Cleveland.

Second year in a row on a new team doesn’t really help Pryor's cause, but I like the idea of him on the field with Teddy Bridgewater at some point. I would imagine, with some creativity, the Jets could really design some innovative gadget plays.
The Jets receiving corps really looks like a bunch of question marks at this point though, no telling what the week-to-week outcome will be with these guys.
Jermaine Kearse: 65 catches, 810 yards, 5 touchdowns (2017)
Robby Anderson: 63 catches, 941 yards, 7 touchdowns (2017)
Quincy Enunwa: 58 catches, 857 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)
Terrelle Pryor: 77 catches, 1007 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)


04/01/18, 11:04 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Carlos Henderson

Denver Broncos

Sleeper Watch


Broncos coach Vance Joseph said the team is "counting on" Carlos Henderson making an impact in 2018.

If you are paying attention to Staggs projections there is plenty of opportunity for Henderson to step into a solid number of targets in the slot. Henderson was hindered by injury and awful QB play last year. Being drafted in the 18th round or later in best-ball leagues, Henderson is the late round flyer that should be on your radar.


04/01/18, 11:00 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.denverpost.com


Ben Watson

Baltimore Ravens

Watson Returns To Big Easy


Saints signed TE Ben Watson, formerly of the Ravens, to a one-year contract.

Watson had 74 catches on 110 targets for 825 yards and 6 TD’s when he was with the Saints in 2015. After missing 2016 he had a pretty good year with Baltimore last year despite an anemic offense, with 61 catches on 79 targets for 522 yards and 4 TD’s. He’s not a bad late round flyer TE. He’s basically free right now, but I expect by the time the season starts he’ll be being drafted within the top 20 at the position.


04/01/18, 10:54 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jeff Janis

Green Bay Packers

Janis Truthers Challenged


Browns officially signed former Packers’ WR Jeff Janis.
The combine superstar never amounted to anything in Green Bay, I highly doubt Cleveland is the place for him to finally break-out.


04/01/18, 10:50 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Thomas Rawls

Seattle Seahawks

Jets Sign Rawls


Rawls had five RB1 games in 2015, one in 2016, and has been a disappointment since. He’s not worth your time in fantasy, but he could cause enough disruption in the Jets backfield to cut any upside we might have hoped for from Isaiah Crowell.


04/01/18, 10:48 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.newyorkjets.com


Allen Robinson

Jacksonville Jaguars

Coo coo ca choo Mr. Robinson


Bears signed WR Allen Robinson, formerly of the Jaguars, to a three-year, $42 million contract.

This is a great move for Robinson and Chicago. Nagy’s offense and the young QB, Trubiski, should benefit Robinson at least as much as Bortles did, and Chicago gets the top WR in free agency.
Everyone on the team will be in a new scheme so there will be an adjustment, but as they start to gel we should see a big second half. Robinson’s recovery from a torn ACL doesn’t scare me away from drafting him in the late third/early fourth, his current MFL10 ADP is 43 overall while his Draft app ADP is 59.9. I expect Robinson to be somewhere in the range of 75 receptions, for 1100 yards and 8 TD’s.


03/24/18, 08:25 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Sammy Watkins

Los Angeles Rams

KC Building Strong Air Attack


Chiefs signed Sammy Watkins, formerly of the Rams, to a three-year, $48 million contract.

I’m a big Sammy truther so getting him in the 5th or 6th round is a pure power move. His current Draft app ADP of 87.1 is an absolute steal, his MFL10 ADP of 69.5 is still a great value in my opinion. There are quite a few options for high targets in KC so I don’t expect him to see the 128 targets he saw his rookie year, but he should definitely see more than the 70 he saw last year. He’ll have an entire offseason to work with the near-rookie QB, and at age 25 he should have enough burst left to have a 70 catch, 1050 yd, 8TD line. For his career he has 16 receptions on 30 targets for 12 TD’s in the Red Zone, and 9 receptions on 13 targets, for 8 TD’s inside the opponents 10. He should be the exact WR the Chiefs need to get over the hump. As a team the Chiefs were 34/75 for 13 TD’s in the Red-Zone last year and 12/24 for 10 TD inside the 10.


03/24/18, 08:19 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.pro-football-reference.com


Kirk Cousins

Washington Redskins

Vikings Like That


Kirk Cousins plans to sign a three-year, fully-guaranteed contract from the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday. The deal is believed to be for around $86 million, and reports are it will be fully-guaranteed, a landmark for an NFL free agent.

Should be a lateral move for Kirk as far as fantasy, better WR’s, but fewer passes thrown in this offense. A healthy Dalvin Cook should be able to run out the clock if they are up in the second half of games and take the ball out of Cousins hands near the end zone. It should also help the overall efficiency of the offense so all in all it increases his floor, but cuts any garbage-time production we’ve seen with Washington. Kyle Rudolph becomes a big benefactor here, Cousins loves his TE, especially near the end-zone.


03/24/18, 08:16 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Case Keenum

Minnesota Vikings

Denver Makes Case


Broncos signed QB Case Keenum, formerly of the Vikings, to a two-year, $36 million contract.

Well, I was hoping for more than a bridge QB for my favorite WR (D. Thomas), but this is a definite upgrade from the three stooges Denver put behind center last year.


03/24/18, 08:13 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


LeGarrette Blount

Philadelphia Eagles

Detroit Sparks Up Blount


The Lions signed free agent RB LeGarrette Blount to a 1-year deal worth $4.5M. He’s back with Matt Patricia, as the New England ties are strong.

The Lions have needed a true goal-line/power-back for years. I expect Blount to get between 150-200 touches and all the short-yardage carries. Detroit’s offense doesn’t really fit what Blount brings to the table, but I expect Patricia will have some influence over how the offense will operate from here-on-out.


03/24/18, 08:10 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Cleveland Browns

Money Ball: The Sequel


Hate to start out the offseason with the Cleveland Browns, but they are makin’ moves!
Browns acquired: Tyrod Taylor, Jarvis Landry, Damarious Randall
Browns gave up: 2018 3rd-round pick (No. 65), 2018 4th-round pick, 2019 7th-round pick, DeShone Kizer

Building with experienced quality performers that have something to prove, by selling inconsequential draft picks is exactly what Sashi Brown was building up for. It’s a shame he won’t be around to reap the rewards, but these are quality moves for a win-now mentality.


03/09/18, 09:37 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Tyrod Taylor

Buffalo Bills

Hue Looks To TyGoat


Browns left tackle Joe Thomas, who's pondering his future, is a fan of Tyrod Taylor and has said so on the ThomaHawk Show podcast.

Tyrod is just one season removed (2016) from being the QB11 in average fantasy ppg, including seven 20+ point weeks and six 15+ point weeks. Given the current talent on the O-line and skill position weapons he could improve on those numbers. He has the potential to be this year’s Alex Smith, definitely heading my late-round (12+) QB picks now.


03/09/18, 09:32 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Deshone Kizer

Cleveland Browns

Packers Get In On The Fun


The Packers have traded for QB DeShone Kizer from the Browns to Green Bay.

This is the best possible scenario for Kizer, who was thrown into the fire last season. Getting the chance to develop and learn behind the best in the business is the best chance he has for longevity.


03/09/18, 09:30 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Torrey Smith

Philadelphia Eagles

On The Move Again


The Eagles trade WR Torrey Smith to the Panthers for CB Daryl Worley. Torrey Smith could fill the old Ted Ginn role which makes this fairly interesting. Stagg Party says it’s more of a boost for Cam than Torrey himself.

This is an absolute perfect fit, someone who isn’t going to demand the ball, but can take the top off a defense while McCaffrey, Olsen, and Cam work underneath. Torrey is looking like a great late-round flyer.


03/09/18, 09:28 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


DeMarco Murray

Tennessee Titans

Henry Hype Train Has Clear Track


DeMarco Murray was released by the Titans.
No surprise here, expect Derick Henry to be a lead back with 250+ touches, but they will bring in someone that will play the third-down, pass-catching role out of the backfield. I wouldn’t be surprised if they sign someone like Jerick McKinnon or Rex Burkhead, or even Darren Sproles or Charles Sims. There are also plenty of options in the NFL draft, Henry won’t be a true “Bell Cow.”


03/09/18, 09:17 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Marquise Goodwin

San Francisco 49ers

The Name Says It All


Marquise Goodwin and the 49ers have agreed to a 3yr extension worth $20.3M & 10M guaranteed.

Shanahan has found his big-play threat at a reasonable price. Goodwin caught 56 balls for 962 yards last season, but only had two TD’s. None of his six longest plays (33+ yards) were from Garoppollo so it leads me to believe they will still be looking for a top of the line WR, even with Garcon coming back from injury.


03/09/18, 09:15 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Dez the panther tearing it up.

My Most Undervalued Players in MFL10s by Stagg Party

Posted by d-Rx on 06/29/17

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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Through the course of piling up some MFL10s (mfl10s.com) this offseason I have a leg up on drafting, as I have literally been doing it since February. MFL10s have their own sort of cult following with over 1,800 drafts completed to date. MFL10s are PPR bestball drafts where you do not need to set a weekly lineup balancing the demand of being in too many leagues. Because of the following @fantasyADHD has created a great real-time ADP application for you to follow along and also make better decisions while drafting, you can see that work at http://fantasyadhd.com/mfl10_live/ and play around with a variety of settings. MFL10s has a mix of analysts and casual drafters, allowing you to sharpen your fantasy football knife while others are still enjoying spring break. Roster construction is a very important part of MFL10s, but this is a piece outside of those confines, as great work has already been done in that area. If you want to learn more about the roster construction side of MFL10s one of the best follows is @beerswater of rotoviz and rotogrinders.

 

Let’s look at a few players and where they are currently going, and why I feel that they are undervalued. These guys are on more of my rosters than not, so if you want to take my ten dollars, you can start your sniping here.

 


Dez Bryant – Current ADP #19

Since I decided I wouldn’t cherry pick here and pick the first or second pick of the third round, and instead go a little deeper, I found myself landing with Dez, as I often do in the early parts of the second round. Dez brings a long history of fantasy dominance on his resume, including a stretch from 2012-2014 where he was one of the best wide receivers in the world. More recently, people seem to look at his numbers and think, Dez can’t exist without Romo, but let me tell you, Dez thrived after returning from injury last season. Including the playoffs, but excluding that Week 17 tilt in which he played like five plays, Dez averaged as many fantasy points as Jordy Nelson over the course of the season. At 28, Bryant also averaged the highest yards per catch mark of his career. The former Oklahoma State Cowboy, can be had at a value if you play your cards right and he finds himself on the field for all 16. I mean, he has had 10 touchdowns in his last 11 games with Dak? Is that good?

 

 

Sammy Watkins – Current ADP #32

Sammy Watkins is currently going in the middle of the third round, and if I had to I would select him earlier. First, games played in a past season actually have a negative correlation to games played in the next season, so OMG he’s injury prone people can bark up another tree. Second, through 3 seasons, Watkins has played more games than Julio Jones has, 36 to 34 with similar injury. Watkins has tallied 153/273 2,459 yards and 17 touchdowns vs. Julio’s 174/282 2,737 yards and 20 touchdowns. You can get Sammy in the third or fourth round, he is worth the risk. Third, targets are king and fantasy football, and last time I checked his main competition for targets is a rookie second rounder out of East Carolina in Zay Jones and Charles Clay who is not worth the dollars spent.

 

 

Ty Montgomery – Current ADP #49

What’s that? Are you not going to draft a running back during this fake draft you are doing in your head? Well, if you haven’t heard Ty Montgomery has officially switched positions and (un)officially(?) still gets to wear number 88, who am I kidding you knew this. You also probably know that the Packers added three rookie running backs during the draft to take his spot, but they haven’t yet and I am a believer that none of them will. Jamaal Williams is JAG who can carry the ball at an average rate, Aaron Jones is probably best as a third down back, and the third guy is a seventh round pick, lets chill out. Montgomery isn’t going to lose snaps on third down after converting from wide receiver. Those worried about Ty losing redzone work or early down work? Montgomery is actually the heaviest running back on the roster. How effective was he as a runner? Well he had more runs of 5+ yards after contact (20) on 102 carries than Lamar Miller (18) did on 318 attempts. Montgomery was one of the most elusive “running backs” in the league last season, constantly forcing broken tackles, let’s just hope that he can elude other drafters and onto my team this season.

 


Martavis Bryant – Current ADP #51

So far there is a theme on this list, a lot of wide receivers I can see returning plus value, at running back, they are fewer and far between. Bryant is another wide receiver I look for in the fourth or fifth rounds now that he has been completely reinstated from his suspension. Bryant is just a freak of nature with speed and length not seen since a wide receiver we really shouldn’t compare anyone too. Bryant has averaged 17.3 yards per catch in his two active seasons and has scored a touchdown on 18.4% of his receptions and 10% of his targets. These numbers don’t even include playoff games where the Alien has dominated the competition. In three playoff games  Bryant has averaged over 15 standard fantasy points a game, against some tough competition in Cincinnati, Denver, and the Baltimore Ravens. Martavis' per game average including playoffs produces a 16 game pace of 63 catches on 113 targets for 1039 yards, plus 92 rush yards and 11 total TDs. Bryant is a flat out freak, and his ADP doesn’t reflect the upside that most players are being drafted at.

 


Mark Ingram – Current ADP #63

Mark Ingram has seen his stock plummet since free agency and the draft, and can now be had in fifth or sixth rounds of drafts depending on the competition. The community is currently split, with some preferring Ingram and others his older counterpart in Adrian Peterson. Ingram is my clear preference here, much like I preferred Ajayi to that old buck Arian Foster last season. In#MFL10s, Ingram is the higher drafted player, being drafted a round and a half ahead of Peterson, but on other mock sites this varies, and there you can really take advantage of his price. Ingram has carried at least 50% of the load in each of the last three years, and with the slightly lower workload he has remained healthier, and the team could take the same approach with Peterson, rotating the early down work between the two in order to keep the other fresh. What Ingram does have on his side, however is he is much more effective in the passing game for a team that will drop back 650+ times this season that is incredibly important. Ingram is also one of the best pass blockers in the league, something that Adrian seemingly has no interest in doing. If Adrian Peterson gets a similar role to Hightower of the past few years, then Ingram will remain virtually unharmed in his role that saw him finish as a top-15 running back in each past two seasons.

 


Jimmy Graham – Current ADP #75

Jimmy Graham is currently coming off the board at the end of the sixth round and at that point, can be a value to your roster. Drafting Graham allows you to just stack two tight ends on your roster if you wish, as he possesses a solid floor and ceiling in his range of outcomes this season. Jimmy will be another year removed from his devastating knee injury, and while he made it back quicker than many imagined, including myself, he did get off to a slow start last season. Graham showed that his burst was back, averaging a career high in yards per catch and posting his highest yardage total since 2013. The Miami product also should get a bump from his quarterback in terms of potential touchdowns, as Wilson posted a TD rate of just 3.8% last season, well under his career average of 5.6%. Graham with another year of health and potential for more targets and touchdowns presents a value at his current ADP.

 


Theo Riddick – Current ADP #83

Running backs that can catch passes are especially important in the MFL10 format as the sites PPR set up allows players like Riddick a nice weekly floor. In PPR leagues last season, Riddick averaged over 16 fantasy points a game, and in 2015 finished as the 18th overall running back on the strength of an 80-reception season. That 80-catch season happened with some guy named Ameer Abdullah, who is being drafted two rounds ahead of him, on the field for 16 games. Riddick will continue to be a bestball asset because him receiving work provides a safe double-digit point score if no one else on your roster rocks the house that week. Theo isn’t disappearing as the third down back, and after showing more than ever as a runner last season, could be in line for an even greater role going forward, despite the Ameer hype train seemingly ready to hit full speed at any time.

 

 

Kirk Cousins – Current ADP #104

So Kirk Cousins is currently coming off the board as QB11, despite finishing as QB5 last season and QB9 the season before that. Cousins threw for nearly 5,000 yards last season and completed 68% of his passes over the last two seasons. Kirk will get hopefully his best weapon back to full health in Jordan Reed, and also upgraded in the size department with Terrelle Pryor and hopefully some impact from last season first round pick Josh Doctson. The former Michigan State signal caller could also see a bump in touchdown rate after coming in at 4.1% last season, lower than his career average of 4.6% and career high of 5.3% in 2015. If Kirk threw touchdown at just his career average last season, he would have passed Andrew Luck in scoring and finished only a hair behind the top tier of fantasy passers. While there are some concerns about losing both DeSean Jackson, who is arguably the best deep ball catcher of the past decade, and Pierre Garcon in free agency, Cousins should be able to keep the ship going down the right path as he looks to secure a long-term big money deal, hopefully elsewhere.

 


Eric Ebron – Current ADP #112

 The much-maligned Eric Ebron is undervalued to me, as I think he is a clear top-10 option at the position. Ebron has his share of red flags, but he also has some great indicators of future success. First, let’s look at this one from Heath Cummings at CBS Sports: Travis Kelce’s 2015 season, 103 targets 72 receptions 875 yards, Eric Ebron’s 2016 (16 game pace) 104 targets 75 receptions 875 yards. Or how about this one from the great Pat Thorman of Pro Football Focus: Since 1980 only 5 TEs had more catches than Eric Ebron through their age-23 season. (Jason Witten, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Tony Gonzalez, Todd Heap) & only 7 had more yards. Finally, how about this one from Graham Barfield of Fantasy Guru: Eric Ebron is one of 16 TEs since the 1970 merger to average 50+ Yards/Game in a single-season at 22 or 23-years-old. Now that you have heard from everyone else, let’s hear some things from me: If Eric Ebron scored at his career average rate in 2016, ~8% of catches, he would have scored 5 touchdowns, that would have made him TE8 last season ahead of Zach Ertz. Ebron has improved his catches, targets, yards per reception, and yardage each year in the league. EE (squirrel sound) is expected to play closer to 50% of his snaps in the slot this season after dropping down to 30% last year, he has a higher scoring rate from the slot and Boldin leaves behind 22 redzone targets, the third highest number in the league. Anquan also leaves behind six touchdowns on his 9 targets inside the ten-yard line, the arrow is pointing up for this now 24 year-old tight end, who the team has a ton of draft capital in, sign me up.

 

 

Kenny Britt – Current ADP #119

Kenny Britt is the new Rodney Dangerfield of fantasy football, he gets no respect, honestly though I must defer to my much older colleagues here, did I use that correctly? Britt is coming over from the Los Angeles Rams that had the worst QB play I can remember last season and still put up numbers. In 15 games, Britt hauled in 68 passes on 111 targets for 1,002 yards and 5 touchdowns. Now with the Browns, we are expecting everything to be different? Like they didn’t just pay him big money over the long term instead of just re-signing Terrelle Pryor? They did. Like Josh Gordon has yet to be reinstated? He hasn’t. Like his greatest competition for targets is a second year pro in Corey Coleman, or a rookie tight end from Miami who I am unsure if he is allowed to legally drink yet? They are. Britt will still see targets, and is being drafted as the 52nd WR off the board for a team that will need to throw to keep pace with the opposition. You interested yet? I am. 

 

 

 

By Stagg Party

 

 

 

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