Week 20
January 20, 2018
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Tom Brady

New England Patriots

Tom Still Terrific?


Tom Brady was first listed on the team's injury report with an Achilles injury heading in to Week 11.
Weeks 1-10: 21.2 fantasy points per game, 110.9 passer rating
Weeks 11-17: 14.2 fantasy points per game, 87.3 passer rating

Fantasy Goo: This should line up for a good week for Brady, Tennessee is 8th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, but just below average against QB’s. The Patriots are 13 point favorites on Saturday Night, if Brady doesn’t do it at home in prime-time then something is wrong.


01/09/18, 07:30 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alvin Kamara

New Orleans Saints

Primary Role Shifting


Saints have run 5 times at/inside opponent's 5-yard line over last 4 weeks (including playoffs):
Alvin Kamara 3 carries, Zach Line 1, Mark Ingram 1. Kamara was in on all 3 Saints run plays at/inside 5 vs. Panthers last week, including Line's 1-yard TD run.

Fantasy Goo: If you’re trying to decide between Kamara and Ingram for the playoff run, Kamara looks to be the much better play.


01/09/18, 07:20 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jay Ajayi

Philadelphia Eagles

It's A Trap


Jay Ajayi (knee) is practicing in full for the Divisional Round.

Fantasy Goo: Atlanta is 5th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s this year and they are more susceptible to pass-catching backs. Todd Gurley rushed 14 times for 101 yards in the Rams' Wild Card loss to the Falcons, adding four receptions for 10 additional yards. Ajayi might have been drafted before Gurley this year, but that was clearly a mistake. Ajayi has talent, but he’s far from a good option this week.


01/09/18, 07:16 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Chris Hogan

New England Patriots

Back in Action


Chris Hogan (shoulder) is expected to return for Saturday's Divisional Round game against the Titans.

Fantasy Goo: He’s going to take a couple of weeks to get in tune with the offense, I’m looking to save him until the Super Bowl if you’re in one of those one and done fantasy playoff tournaments.


01/09/18, 07:14 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Drew Brees

New Orleans Saints

Strength vs Strength


Saints RBs led NFL during regular season in receptions (9.0) and receiving yards (77.8) per game.
Vikings held opposing RBs to fewest yards per target (4.2) and 3rd-fewest yards per game (30.6).

Fantasy Goo: The Vikings have been absolutely sick in all aspects on defense this year. If the Saints are going to pull this one out it sounds like it’s going to have to be a Brees week, I’m not so sure he’s going to be the guy you want to start on the road this week.


01/09/18, 07:12 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


LeSean McCoy

Buffalo Bills

Not The Real McCoy


LeSean McCoy said if he plays Sunday, "I want to be able to cut well enough to where I don't have a lot of pain cutting. I just want to be close, or the best as far as 100 percent as I can get. The type of game like this, you got to lay it all on the line.”

Fantasy Goo: McCoy is a poor play against the Jags this week. The Jags strength on defense is against the pass (#1 in FP allowed), but they are still strong against the rush (11th). I’m not taking any Bills on fantasy playoff squads or in DFS this week.


01/04/18, 09:29 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Derrick Henry

Tennessee Titans

Arrow Pointing Down


DeMarco Murray (knee) didn't practice again Thursday. Derrick Henry show ready to go.

Fantasy Goo: The way to attack KC is through the air, they rank 9th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s. They will most likely be in negative game script. KC hasn’t allowed any team to score over 20 points in Arrowhead all year.


01/04/18, 09:27 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Julio Jones

Atlanta Falcons

No Fly Zone


Julio Jones finished 11th in NFL in red-zone targets but caught only 5 of 19. He finished 4th in targets inside 10 but only caught 4 of 11.

Fantasy Goo: The Rams have a strong pass defense, especially against outside receivers, but are second worst in fantasy points allowed to RB’s. Freeman and Coleman are the only Falcons I am considering this week.


01/04/18, 09:25 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Kenny Golladay

Detroit Lions

Under the Radar


In the first game with TJ Jones (shoulder) on IR last week, Kenny Golladay played 95% of snaps and led DET WRs with 8 targets.

Fantasy Goo: Marvin Jones has a history of shredding the Packers defense and is a solid play at $6500 on DK, but Golladay is half the price ($3300) and will probably see a similar number of targets. If Detroit had something to play for I’d be stacking the heck out of this game, but I still think it’s smart to have one of these guys in the line-up this week.


12/31/17, 09:46 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Patrick Mahomes

Kansas City Chiefs

Rookie Debut


Patrick Mahomes was 2nd in PFF’s QB Rating when kept clean in preseason. He rushed for 744 yards, 22 TDs in his last two years at Texas Tech. Denver has allowed multiple passing TDs to six-straight QBs not named Petty or Brissett.

Fantasy Goo: The rookie was supposed to take over for Alex Smith much earlier this season, but Smith and the Chief’s came out firing on all cylinders and kept the rookie on the bench. Mahomes will get his chance this week as Smith gets a week off before the playoffs. Denver may be packing it in, but they still have one of the best defenses and I expect they will play more inspired this week against a division rival.


12/31/17, 09:32 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Wayne Gallman

New York Giants

Last Man Standing


Giants will be without Shepard (neck), Engram (ribs), and King (concussion) vs. WAS. Wayne Gallman has 9, 7, 8 target counts in last three weeks.

Fantasy Goo: Washington ranks 24th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s and Gallman is $4200 on DK. Feels like a great way to save and pay up at other positions.


12/31/17, 09:21 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alex Collins

Baltimore Ravens

Burfict Situation


Bengals LB Vontaze Burfict ruled out for game Sunday at Baltimore because of shoulder injury.

Fantasy Goo: Collins becomes a solid RB1 this week. Cincinnati’s run defense is a sieve with Burfict out.


12/31/17, 09:19 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Akeem Hunt

Houston Texans

Akeem No Dream


Charcandrick West is out Sunday vs Denver with an illness. Akeem Hunt and Kareem Hunt only RBs on active roster for KC. It would be a surprise to see Kareem play much. That means a ton of Akeem Hunt and likely some De'Anthony Thomas on passing downs.

Fantasy Goo: Akeem is min price ($3000) on DK so the definition of a free-square, but there’s a reason he’s bounced around the NFL and never earned a starting role. Denver is 5th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, I’m not rostering Akeem when there are so many other options this week.


12/31/17, 09:17 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


DeAndre Hopkins

Houston Texans

Milestone Not Worth The Risk


Bill O'Brien on DeAndre Hopkins' status: 'Probably won't know up until game time'. Typically, we might classify this as coach-speak, but Hopkins has never missed a game, and is four catches away from 100 for the season. He's probably pushing hard to play.

Fantasy Goo: This is an awesome match-up for the Houston WR’s going against a very weak Indy pass defense, but there is really no reason for Hopkins to play, especially with the calf injury. At $8400 on DK he’s just way too pricey given this news. A sneaky start might be Will Fuller at $4300, he has 5 targets in each of the past three games and is coming off some difficult match-ups. Earlier in the season he was a superstar with Watson throwing the ball, but he has always had the big play in his arsenal no matter who the QB is.


12/29/17, 10:03 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Dion Lewis

New England Patriots

Vultures Are Always Flying


James White (ankle) remained limited at Thursday's practice. White was absent for last week's win over Buffalo but should be out there against the Jets in Week 17. He ranks eighth among running backs with 56 catches this year.

Fantasy Goo: Lewis dominated last week with White and Burkhead out, even though Gillislee vultured a TD. I would imagine that White playing will take away the five receptions Lewis had last week and the Jets actually have a better rush defense than the Pats week 16 opponent (Buf). The Pats will be looking to lock-up home field advantage and won’t be resting their starters, but they will probably be looking to get everyone some work as they prep for the playoffs. Gillislee appears to be nursing a hammy and is not expected to play, but let’s not forget how White performed last year in the Super Bowl.


12/29/17, 09:47 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

Pittsburgh Steelers

Stars Sitting


The Steelers Marcus Gilbert tells reporter Tim Benz that the Steelers won't play Ben Roethlisberger or Le'Veon Bell in finale vs. Cleveland. Landry Jones will be under center for Pittsburgh and Fitzgerald Toussaint and Stevan Ridley will form a thoroughly underwhelming RB committee against the Browns.

Fantasy Goo: Underwhelming is an understatement for these two backs, a highly respected fantasy website hasn’t even updated the news on these two since the pre-season and doesn’t even recognize them as being on the team. The one player of note in this is Martavis Bryant, The Alien averages over 17 ppr points per game with Landry at the helm as opposed to 8.4 ppg with other QB’s. He also has 5 TD’s in 5 home games with Landry. Granted most of this production comes from 2015 when they worked together often in the preseason, but Bryant could be a very sneaky GPP play this week.


12/29/17, 09:23 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Jacksonville Jaguars

Play To Win The Game


Despite already being locked into the AFC's No. 3 seed, Jaguars coach Doug Marrone has no plans to rest starters in Sunday's game against the Titans. "Make no mistake about it, just so there is not a lot of talk during the week: When the players come in (Wednesday), we are talking about how we are going to play to win and do everything we possibly can to win this game, period," Marrone said. "I am not even thinking about what happens beyond that, and that is the way we are going to go about our business this week."

Fantasy Goo: I think it’s crazy of him to do, but I’m sure he has Tom Coughlin in his ear feeding him that old-school philosophy. Looks like Bortles, Fournette, Westbrook and Cole will be safe plays against a Titan’s team hoping to hold on to the sixth seed in the AFC.


12/26/17, 10:00 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

Los Angeles Rams

Resting Starters


McVay hints that there will be Rams starters “who won’t play at all” on Sunday. The Rams are already locked into either the No. 3 or 4 seed in the NFC and will host a Wild Card round playoff game.

Fantasy Goo: Gurley, Goff, Woods, all sitting this week? That’s going to destroy so many hopes and dreams for teams that rode Gurley all year.


12/26/17, 09:58 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


DeMarco Murray

Tennessee Titans

Grind It Out


Mike Mularkey said he's not ruling DeMarco Murray out just yet. He's day-to-day. The Titans are holding out hope to have him in limited role.

Fantasy Goo: They are really grinding him into the dirt if they play him this week. I didn’t see the injury, but it sounded pretty ugly from sources in the know. Keep away from him in whatever format you are playing this week, I’m giving Derick Henry a solid upgrade as the Titans are trying to hold on to the final playoff spot in the AFC.


12/26/17, 05:17 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Philadelphia Eagles

All Locked Up


Pederson on playing Foles vs. Cowboys: “I’ve got to get him as many reps as he can and then be smart about it. Obviously, we have a lot of football left. Our season is really just beginning, quite honestly. We’ll be smart.”

Fantasy Goo: This is why you don’t play a championship game in week 17. I’m staying away from the Eagles regular starters, pretty much across the board, as they have a first round bye all locked up. Guys like Blount, Clement, and Nelson Agholor might have some DFS appeal, but we have to get closer to Sunday to see what they plan on doing.


12/26/17, 05:15 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Dez the panther tearing it up.

My Most Undervalued Players in MFL10s by Stagg Party

Posted by d-Rx on 06/29/17

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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Through the course of piling up some MFL10s (mfl10s.com) this offseason I have a leg up on drafting, as I have literally been doing it since February. MFL10s have their own sort of cult following with over 1,800 drafts completed to date. MFL10s are PPR bestball drafts where you do not need to set a weekly lineup balancing the demand of being in too many leagues. Because of the following @fantasyADHD has created a great real-time ADP application for you to follow along and also make better decisions while drafting, you can see that work at http://fantasyadhd.com/mfl10_live/ and play around with a variety of settings. MFL10s has a mix of analysts and casual drafters, allowing you to sharpen your fantasy football knife while others are still enjoying spring break. Roster construction is a very important part of MFL10s, but this is a piece outside of those confines, as great work has already been done in that area. If you want to learn more about the roster construction side of MFL10s one of the best follows is @beerswater of rotoviz and rotogrinders.

 

Let’s look at a few players and where they are currently going, and why I feel that they are undervalued. These guys are on more of my rosters than not, so if you want to take my ten dollars, you can start your sniping here.

 


Dez Bryant – Current ADP #19

Since I decided I wouldn’t cherry pick here and pick the first or second pick of the third round, and instead go a little deeper, I found myself landing with Dez, as I often do in the early parts of the second round. Dez brings a long history of fantasy dominance on his resume, including a stretch from 2012-2014 where he was one of the best wide receivers in the world. More recently, people seem to look at his numbers and think, Dez can’t exist without Romo, but let me tell you, Dez thrived after returning from injury last season. Including the playoffs, but excluding that Week 17 tilt in which he played like five plays, Dez averaged as many fantasy points as Jordy Nelson over the course of the season. At 28, Bryant also averaged the highest yards per catch mark of his career. The former Oklahoma State Cowboy, can be had at a value if you play your cards right and he finds himself on the field for all 16. I mean, he has had 10 touchdowns in his last 11 games with Dak? Is that good?

 

 

Sammy Watkins – Current ADP #32

Sammy Watkins is currently going in the middle of the third round, and if I had to I would select him earlier. First, games played in a past season actually have a negative correlation to games played in the next season, so OMG he’s injury prone people can bark up another tree. Second, through 3 seasons, Watkins has played more games than Julio Jones has, 36 to 34 with similar injury. Watkins has tallied 153/273 2,459 yards and 17 touchdowns vs. Julio’s 174/282 2,737 yards and 20 touchdowns. You can get Sammy in the third or fourth round, he is worth the risk. Third, targets are king and fantasy football, and last time I checked his main competition for targets is a rookie second rounder out of East Carolina in Zay Jones and Charles Clay who is not worth the dollars spent.

 

 

Ty Montgomery – Current ADP #49

What’s that? Are you not going to draft a running back during this fake draft you are doing in your head? Well, if you haven’t heard Ty Montgomery has officially switched positions and (un)officially(?) still gets to wear number 88, who am I kidding you knew this. You also probably know that the Packers added three rookie running backs during the draft to take his spot, but they haven’t yet and I am a believer that none of them will. Jamaal Williams is JAG who can carry the ball at an average rate, Aaron Jones is probably best as a third down back, and the third guy is a seventh round pick, lets chill out. Montgomery isn’t going to lose snaps on third down after converting from wide receiver. Those worried about Ty losing redzone work or early down work? Montgomery is actually the heaviest running back on the roster. How effective was he as a runner? Well he had more runs of 5+ yards after contact (20) on 102 carries than Lamar Miller (18) did on 318 attempts. Montgomery was one of the most elusive “running backs” in the league last season, constantly forcing broken tackles, let’s just hope that he can elude other drafters and onto my team this season.

 


Martavis Bryant – Current ADP #51

So far there is a theme on this list, a lot of wide receivers I can see returning plus value, at running back, they are fewer and far between. Bryant is another wide receiver I look for in the fourth or fifth rounds now that he has been completely reinstated from his suspension. Bryant is just a freak of nature with speed and length not seen since a wide receiver we really shouldn’t compare anyone too. Bryant has averaged 17.3 yards per catch in his two active seasons and has scored a touchdown on 18.4% of his receptions and 10% of his targets. These numbers don’t even include playoff games where the Alien has dominated the competition. In three playoff games  Bryant has averaged over 15 standard fantasy points a game, against some tough competition in Cincinnati, Denver, and the Baltimore Ravens. Martavis' per game average including playoffs produces a 16 game pace of 63 catches on 113 targets for 1039 yards, plus 92 rush yards and 11 total TDs. Bryant is a flat out freak, and his ADP doesn’t reflect the upside that most players are being drafted at.

 


Mark Ingram – Current ADP #63

Mark Ingram has seen his stock plummet since free agency and the draft, and can now be had in fifth or sixth rounds of drafts depending on the competition. The community is currently split, with some preferring Ingram and others his older counterpart in Adrian Peterson. Ingram is my clear preference here, much like I preferred Ajayi to that old buck Arian Foster last season. In#MFL10s, Ingram is the higher drafted player, being drafted a round and a half ahead of Peterson, but on other mock sites this varies, and there you can really take advantage of his price. Ingram has carried at least 50% of the load in each of the last three years, and with the slightly lower workload he has remained healthier, and the team could take the same approach with Peterson, rotating the early down work between the two in order to keep the other fresh. What Ingram does have on his side, however is he is much more effective in the passing game for a team that will drop back 650+ times this season that is incredibly important. Ingram is also one of the best pass blockers in the league, something that Adrian seemingly has no interest in doing. If Adrian Peterson gets a similar role to Hightower of the past few years, then Ingram will remain virtually unharmed in his role that saw him finish as a top-15 running back in each past two seasons.

 


Jimmy Graham – Current ADP #75

Jimmy Graham is currently coming off the board at the end of the sixth round and at that point, can be a value to your roster. Drafting Graham allows you to just stack two tight ends on your roster if you wish, as he possesses a solid floor and ceiling in his range of outcomes this season. Jimmy will be another year removed from his devastating knee injury, and while he made it back quicker than many imagined, including myself, he did get off to a slow start last season. Graham showed that his burst was back, averaging a career high in yards per catch and posting his highest yardage total since 2013. The Miami product also should get a bump from his quarterback in terms of potential touchdowns, as Wilson posted a TD rate of just 3.8% last season, well under his career average of 5.6%. Graham with another year of health and potential for more targets and touchdowns presents a value at his current ADP.

 


Theo Riddick – Current ADP #83

Running backs that can catch passes are especially important in the MFL10 format as the sites PPR set up allows players like Riddick a nice weekly floor. In PPR leagues last season, Riddick averaged over 16 fantasy points a game, and in 2015 finished as the 18th overall running back on the strength of an 80-reception season. That 80-catch season happened with some guy named Ameer Abdullah, who is being drafted two rounds ahead of him, on the field for 16 games. Riddick will continue to be a bestball asset because him receiving work provides a safe double-digit point score if no one else on your roster rocks the house that week. Theo isn’t disappearing as the third down back, and after showing more than ever as a runner last season, could be in line for an even greater role going forward, despite the Ameer hype train seemingly ready to hit full speed at any time.

 

 

Kirk Cousins – Current ADP #104

So Kirk Cousins is currently coming off the board as QB11, despite finishing as QB5 last season and QB9 the season before that. Cousins threw for nearly 5,000 yards last season and completed 68% of his passes over the last two seasons. Kirk will get hopefully his best weapon back to full health in Jordan Reed, and also upgraded in the size department with Terrelle Pryor and hopefully some impact from last season first round pick Josh Doctson. The former Michigan State signal caller could also see a bump in touchdown rate after coming in at 4.1% last season, lower than his career average of 4.6% and career high of 5.3% in 2015. If Kirk threw touchdown at just his career average last season, he would have passed Andrew Luck in scoring and finished only a hair behind the top tier of fantasy passers. While there are some concerns about losing both DeSean Jackson, who is arguably the best deep ball catcher of the past decade, and Pierre Garcon in free agency, Cousins should be able to keep the ship going down the right path as he looks to secure a long-term big money deal, hopefully elsewhere.

 


Eric Ebron – Current ADP #112

 The much-maligned Eric Ebron is undervalued to me, as I think he is a clear top-10 option at the position. Ebron has his share of red flags, but he also has some great indicators of future success. First, let’s look at this one from Heath Cummings at CBS Sports: Travis Kelce’s 2015 season, 103 targets 72 receptions 875 yards, Eric Ebron’s 2016 (16 game pace) 104 targets 75 receptions 875 yards. Or how about this one from the great Pat Thorman of Pro Football Focus: Since 1980 only 5 TEs had more catches than Eric Ebron through their age-23 season. (Jason Witten, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Tony Gonzalez, Todd Heap) & only 7 had more yards. Finally, how about this one from Graham Barfield of Fantasy Guru: Eric Ebron is one of 16 TEs since the 1970 merger to average 50+ Yards/Game in a single-season at 22 or 23-years-old. Now that you have heard from everyone else, let’s hear some things from me: If Eric Ebron scored at his career average rate in 2016, ~8% of catches, he would have scored 5 touchdowns, that would have made him TE8 last season ahead of Zach Ertz. Ebron has improved his catches, targets, yards per reception, and yardage each year in the league. EE (squirrel sound) is expected to play closer to 50% of his snaps in the slot this season after dropping down to 30% last year, he has a higher scoring rate from the slot and Boldin leaves behind 22 redzone targets, the third highest number in the league. Anquan also leaves behind six touchdowns on his 9 targets inside the ten-yard line, the arrow is pointing up for this now 24 year-old tight end, who the team has a ton of draft capital in, sign me up.

 

 

Kenny Britt – Current ADP #119

Kenny Britt is the new Rodney Dangerfield of fantasy football, he gets no respect, honestly though I must defer to my much older colleagues here, did I use that correctly? Britt is coming over from the Los Angeles Rams that had the worst QB play I can remember last season and still put up numbers. In 15 games, Britt hauled in 68 passes on 111 targets for 1,002 yards and 5 touchdowns. Now with the Browns, we are expecting everything to be different? Like they didn’t just pay him big money over the long term instead of just re-signing Terrelle Pryor? They did. Like Josh Gordon has yet to be reinstated? He hasn’t. Like his greatest competition for targets is a second year pro in Corey Coleman, or a rookie tight end from Miami who I am unsure if he is allowed to legally drink yet? They are. Britt will still see targets, and is being drafted as the 52nd WR off the board for a team that will need to throw to keep pace with the opposition. You interested yet? I am. 

 

 

 

By Stagg Party

 

 

 

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