Week 3
September 21, 2017
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Chris Thompson

Washington Redskins

Thompson Flashes


Thompson only had three carries, but two of them went for scores, including a 61-yard scamper. He finished with six touches for 106 yards and two scores. Rob Kelley could miss time with the injury and Thompson is lightening in a bottle.

Fantasy Goo: Thompson is the back to own in PPR leagues, his floor is solid with the passing downs work and he will probably average five carries a game if Kelley (ribs) is out.


09/19/17, 07:08 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: pyromaniac.com


Chris Carson

Seattle Seahawks

Seattle Backfield Jumble


Carson was the man at running back for the Seahawks, running the ball 20 times for 93 yards, and he caught one pass for 7 yards to give him 100 total yards on the day. Lacy is a non-factor, and Rawls does not look like he will be able to keep Carson from getting the Lion share of carries going forward.

Fantasy Goo: Carson will probably be the number one waiver add in your league, and if you have the number one pick you NEED to add Carson now.


09/19/17, 07:06 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: pyromaniac.com


D'Onta Foreman

Houston Texans

The Foreman Is On The Job


The Texans want to get Foreman more involved in the offense, and this week he had 12 carries for 40 yards. He is going to be in a 60/40 split with Lamar Miller, but there is upside if Miller goes down. His workload should only increase as the season moves along.

Fantasy Goo: If he’s still available, if you have space on your roster, and if you can wait a few weeks for him to take even more of the role, then this is your guy to grab. Foreman could emerge as the Texans primary back by the end of the year.


09/19/17, 07:03 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: pyromaniac.com


Rashard Higgins

Cleveland Browns

They Call Him "Hollywood"


Browns placed WR Corey Coleman on injured reserve with a broken hand. Coleman underwent surgery on his broken right hand Monday. Higgins played 54-of-71 snaps against the Ravens, 12 more than Kenny Britt. He also turned 11 targets into seven catches for 95 yards. He was just promoted off the practice squad on Saturday, so he could be a one hit wonder.

Fantasy Goo: Normally I would say to just put him on your watch list, but he could emerge into what we thought Kenny Britt would be. Britt is playing like he doesn’t give a crap right now, which is giving Higgins opportunity and with Coleman out for at least eight weeks there might not be anyone else to throw to.


09/19/17, 07:00 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Will Fuller

Houston Texans

Strong Out, Fuller In


Will Fuller (collarbone) returned to practice on Monday. It's a potential sign Fuller could return for Week 3. The Houston Chronicle reported in early August that Fuller would likely miss "2-3 months," but Fuller is an elite athlete in optimal condition, and he is capable of beating a lengthy timetable like that. The Texans also placed WR Jaelen Strong on waivers and the Jaguars have claimed him.

Fantasy Goo: It’s too bad the Texans still don’t have a QB. Fuller could add a valuable weapon for Watson, but I don’t see Watson being a productive QB that can maintain two WR’s with weekly fantasy value. Keep Fuller on the watch list just in case Watson proves he can produce or they shift to a free agent QB.


09/19/17, 06:57 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


A.J. Green

Cincinnati Bengals

Green looking forward to Green Bay


A.J. Green has struggled to get going this season, with 10 receptions for 141 yards and no touchdowns. This week he faces a Packers defense that could be without Mike Daniels and Ahmad Brooks. Julio Jones had 108 yards against the Packers last week, and without the pass rush of Daniels Green should be able to make more plays downfield this week. The Bengals are looking for their first touchdown of the season, and Dalton wants it to be a passing touchdown to A.J.


09/19/17, 06:57 PM CDT by Houdini

Source: www.pro-football-reference.com


Le'Veon Bell

Pittsburgh Steelers

Bell looking for a breakthrough against the Bears


Le'Veon has only totaled 138 yards with no scores through the first two weeks. Owners should be feeling good about his matchup this week against the Bears. Chicago is already without LB Jerrell Freeman, and last week lost his replacement Nick Kwiatkowski. The Bears are a mess and Bell should be able to exploit those weaknesses for big gains this week.


09/19/17, 06:52 PM CDT by Houdini

Source: www.pro-football-reference.com

Carolina Panthers

Carolina In My Mind


Implied Team Totals: Panthers 25, Bills 18
Cam looked rusty last week, he was literally shaking his arm after passes like there was rust in his shoulder joint. Christian McCaffrey out-snapped Jonathan Stewart 70% to 43% in Week 1, but Stewart out-touched McCaffrey 20 to 18, and Stewart scored the backfield’s lone TD on a red-zone reception where McCaffrey served as a decoy. As Carolina is favored by a touchdown at home, this sets up as another positive-script game where Stewart can log a similar if not superior workload to his dynamic rookie counterpart, giving both Panthers backs RB2/flex appeal. I don’t like any of the receivers, Benjamin is only ranked within the startable range because of the implied opportunity and what should be a prime match-up.


09/17/17, 10:30 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

Buffalo Bills

Buffalo @ Carolina


Implied Team Totals: Panthers 25, Bills 18
Tyrod is a solid sit for me on the road against a strong Carolina defense that silenced the 49ers on the road last week. McCoy will get 25 or so carries so I’m starting him in season-long, but his upside is capped so he’s a fade in DFS this week. Charles Clay led Buffalo in targets and caught his eighth TD in 29 games as a Bill. Last year’s Panthers allowed the league’s second-most fantasy points to tight ends, a position to which their Cover-3 zone can be vulnerable.


09/17/17, 10:28 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

New England Patriots

New England @ New Orleans


Implied Team Totals: Patriots 31, Saints 25
Last year the Saints allowed the second-most points (454) and the most passing yards (4380), the Superdome is now known as football’s version of Coors Field for its elevation of offensive output. My top DFS plays are Brady, of course, Cooks in a revenge game, Gronk if you are ok with paying up at TE, and the way to get Gronk in a DK line-up is to play James White at RB2 or flex. White is cheap, and played the most snaps of the RB’s last week, he could have around 5 receptions for around 35-50yds and cross your fingers for a TD.


09/17/17, 10:12 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

New Orleans Saints

New Orleans Hosting New England


Implied Team Totals: Patriots 31, Saints 25
The Saints, and Brees are a different animal at home than the road. Alex Smith shredded the Pats last week and even on short rest (6 days, compared to NE’s 10 days) Brees should see similar numbers. I feel good about starting Michael Thomas or Fleener, they should see the bulk of red-zone targets. The RB situation is in flux so the only RB I’m considering is Alvin Kamara, he’s obviously not a cash game play, but at $3500 he could pay-off in a big way.


09/17/17, 10:09 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars have alot to do to bounce back to fantasy relevance in week 2


With Blake Bortles playing the role as "game manager" it certainly puts a cap on the Jags offense as a whole,sure Leonard Fournette can be counted on to get the Lions share of work but at the cost of the passing game especially after losing AR15 who is left to count on ?
Blake threw for a meager 125 and a TD in week one's victory over Houston,but went 11 for 21 pass attempts. (21 attempts yoikes)
It seems the lack of faith in Bortles has everyone wondering if you can even start any pass catcher on this team.
The improvement of the defense should help but if history tells us anything it is that the Jags will be playing from behind and will be forced to throw. So again who's catching the ball in Jacksonville week 2?

Allen Hurns caught 3 out of 4 targets for 42 yards in the Jaguars' season opener and should be the one to take on the WR1 duties. He did show some fantasy value two years ago and is most likely to be the receiver with the most upside and is currently WR 49 on pyro rankings.

Marqise Lee was off the marq week 1 and had 4 balls thrown his way and failed to haul in a single catch, but he is in line to be the WR2. Maybe the increased workload and motivation of being more involved in the game plan will be the trick for Lee who's is WR 50 on pyro rankings.

Marcedes Lewis the tight-end failed to make a single reception of his two targets vs.the Texans. He could be called on to make up some of the loss of ARob but I'm not holding my breath. He only had 169 yards and a single touchdown all of last season Lewis is currently holding down TE 47 on the current pyro rankings.

Fantasy Goo: So if your like me the approach in Jacksonville is wait and see what happens Sunday vs Tennessee and hopefully we get the answers we are looking for by end of week three.


09/17/17, 05:13 AM CDT by PK Ripper

Source: pyromaniac.com

Green Bay Packers

Packers @ Falcons


Ty Montgomery played 75 of82 snaps, he’s playing a team that struggles to cover RBs and there’s a high over under. After allowing a league-high 14.5 receiving points per game to opposing backfields in 2016, Atlanta allowed a Week 1 high 23.1 points to the Chicago backfield receiving. Aaron Rodgers has thrown 10 touchdowns with at least three in each game and averaged 29.3 points per game. Randall Cobb accounted for 32 percent of the Green Bay targets Week 1.

Fantasy Goo: Start everyone mentioned above and Jordy. I guess Adams and Bennett are solid plays too, but I usually stay away from them in general, very TD dependent. This should be a shoot-out in Atlanta’s new stadium, and I expect Ty Montgomery to have the best value at $5800 on DK.


09/16/17, 06:28 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Akeem Hunt

Houston Texans

Double Hunt in KC


“Chiefs are releasing CJ Spiller again, per sources. This makes room on the 53 for RB Akeem Hunt, who can contribute on lots of special teams.”

Fantasy: Ok, this means absolutely nothing, but if you have that guy in your league that keeps sending annoying trades, you should pick up Akeem and send the guy an offer when you know he’s been drinking. All he’ll see is Hunt KC, if you make the right offer. Ask for someone good, but don’t get greedy.


09/16/17, 06:24 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Michael Crabtree

Oakland Raiders

Crabtree is the WR1 on Oakland yet again


Crabtree is the WR1a for the Raiders against a strong Jets defense in Oakland, but it’s the first home game of the year and they’ve already shown the ability to put up points. This game should end in a blowout which means more red-zone targets for Crabby, something that he didn’t see in Week 1. Look for another seven reception performance for around 100 yards and a touchdown.


09/16/17, 04:56 PM CDT by d-Rx

Source: www.pyomaniac.com


Derek Carr

Oakland Raiders

Great matchup this week


Carr was very efficient against the Titans on the road but will break out in a major way at home against the withering Jets defense. Tyrod Taylor posted 18.7 FF points in Week 1 against NYJ and Carr has better weapons at his disposal. Carr could easily be the top QB this week and will continue to be the steal of the draft.


09/16/17, 04:54 PM CDT by d-Rx

Source: www.pyomaniac.com


Amari Cooper

Oakland Raiders

Cooper scooper


Cooper had the big fantasy day with his 62 yards and a touchdown, but he had only five receptions on 13 targets! Something to be concerned about, but Amari also worked through a small knee injury. Use the eye-test in Week 2 to see if his efficiency improves, otherwise, Crabtree might re-take the WR1 spot on this powerful offense.


09/16/17, 04:54 PM CDT by d-Rx

Source: www.pyomaniac.com


Emmanuel Sanders

Denver Broncos

2 inches short of explosion


Sanders was so close to a massive fantasy day but was overthrown by inches on two red-zone targets on Monday night. Sanders and Demaryius will mimic each other’s stat lines through the season, but ‘Manny usually sees the softer coverage. Over the course of the season, Demaryius will see a larger total FF point sum, but itll be Sanders that wins you the week.


09/16/17, 04:53 PM CDT by d-Rx

Source: www.pyomaniac.com


Demaryius Thomas

Denver Broncos

Solid WR2 in all formats


Thomas will continue to be a solid WR2 especially in PPR leagues. Dallas is a similar test to the Chargers in defending receivers, so temper expectations for a breakout week, but you can definitely expect 6-8 receptions for just under 100 yards.


09/16/17, 04:52 PM CDT by d-Rx

Source: www.pyomaniac.com


C.J. Anderson

Denver Broncos

Anderson has Charles breathing down his neck...


Anderson rushed 20 times for 81 yards but was often replaced near the goal line and in long yardage situations. It was odd to see and may be a legitimate concern with Jamaal Charles in the back-up role. All CJ owners should think about stashing Charles on the bench. Dallas only allowed 9.6 and 3.5 FF points to Giant RBs so we should expect a similar output in Week 2, making CJ a flex candidate.


09/16/17, 04:50 PM CDT by d-Rx

Source: www.pyomaniac.com

A man using a stick to get leverage, how to obtain leverage in fantasy football

Negotiations - Fantasy Football Strategy by The Archer

Posted by d-Rx on 08/12/16

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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“Leverage is having something the other guy wants.  Or better yet, needs.  Or, best of all, simply cannot do without.” Donald Trump, The Art of the Deal.  Prior to his political campaign, Donald Trump wrote a book on making deals. Donald Trump’s book gave me insight to managing my in season fantasy roster.

 

In college, I took a class on negotiations and I was required to read The Art of the Deal. I took the knowledge I had learned in this class, Trump’s book, my economic class, and Toyota’s Manufacturing Company to synthesize a nasty trading component within my fantasy football strategy.  In the past two years, I have refined this strategy and average ~20 trades per league.  In this article, I will give you a brief understanding of my findings and how I apply these concepts to create my strategy within the season.

 

 

Leverage


What is it? In the fantasy football community, it can range from tactical and strategical assets to player insight.

 

Real Leverage: These are assets that other perceive as assets, not what you perceive as assets. Let’s define assets before proceeding.  Assets in the fantasy football realm that have some tradable value no matter how great or how small.  An example, a stud wide receiver that everyone wants to own and a hyped running back that is competing for a starting position.  Both hold different value and yet both face a common enemy, injuries.  Injured players depreciate in value immediately.

 

Pitfalls: This is tricky because it is your perceived value.  It is likely, if you are reading this, you have more intellectual knowledge of the actual value of players than your league mates because they are not reading articles like this.  This poses a problem because odds are, they do not value a player as high as you do, no matter the risk.

 

Obtaining Leverage: You obtain leverage and power over your league mates by doing research on the players that are rising and falling throughout the season.  This is the most common way and you can assume most league mates are doing this.  Where you make your money is searching players on Twitter.  This will bring up any mentions of injuries or insight from beat reporters that give you a tactical advantage. 

 

Let’s take the time to define the difference between tactical and strategic advantages.  Tactical advantages are short term moves that range from a day to a couple weeks.  Strategic advantages range from a couple weeks to the end of the season. The idea is to convert what appear as tactical moves into strategic moves.  This is important because if someone perceives strategical significance, they are less likely to trade a player because they pose some advantage in the playoffs.

 

 

Draft


It starts with the draft.  In the first couple rounds, establish your core assets.  These are players you will not want to trade and should be conservative picks that you try to minimize the risk of injury and have a clear understanding of their expected performance.  In mid to late rounds, start targeting blue chip players that are viable starters/flex position/trade assets.  In late rounds, go with the players with hype or players that you know will do well barring injury. The goal is to end with players that are undeniably your starters, potential trade bait or starters if you so choose to keep them and absolute must trade players.

 

 

Negotiations


There are 3 types of negation objectives to consider; win-win, win-lose, and lose-lose. When assessing these types of negotiations, you want to be ahead, no matter the outcome.  They are elementary but let’s dig into them to identify their importance.

 

Win-Win: This is ideal for both league teams.  Doing a win-win trade is beneficial for establishing long term trade talks because of the vested interest in a “good” outcome. Identify bottom feeders and help them raise their fantasy potential. They are likely to miss out in the fantasy playoffs and I recommend keeping communications throughout the league with these teams. I recommend using this strategy early to mid-season once players start defining their potential. (Weeks 1-8)

 

Win-Lose: This can lead to negative future relations or an unwillingness to trade down the road and should be used strategically to separate yourself from the sharks in your league. I recommend waiting to use this strategy until mid to late season. (Weeks 7-13)

 

Lose-Lose: This strategy should be used as a last resort.  I attempt to stray from this negotiation type unless it is with my top competitor and I believe it will take a piece they need more than I need my own.  It is also beneficial to concede if the league doesn’t like your overall strategy of constant trading. Consider this a late season strategy (Weeks 10+) because your focus should be on hoisting that championship.

 

 

Building your Plan


Whatever your strategy be consistent but allow yourself enough room to be semi flexible.  This depends on your personal emotions on risk and how much you are willing to tolerate. I personally am semi-risk averse and make trades that surprise me.

 

Objectives: Identify what triggers your league mates to say “Yes” or “No” to a trade, understand league mate’s value across the league (College/draft pedigree, tangibles or intangibles, etc.)

 

Assumptions: What is the terrain of your league.  Are they likely to trade? Do you have to have landslide trades in their favor or are they likely to trade a lot once they see others doing it? It’s important that you identify this within your league or this strategy is moot.

 

Profiles: Are your league mates using the same strategy? Probably not, I have been in very few leagues with more than one to three trade sharks. Identify those who are unwilling to trade and those who are or could be open to it. More or less, profile each league member within your league.  As an active user, inactive user, trader, non-trader, risk averse, a risk taker, or a combination of the previous profiles. This is critical because assessing the landscape will lead to your success of implementing this strategy.

 

Positions: Positions are predetermined outcomes that you have carefully evaluated. I will explain all of them in detail below. It should be noted, when considering this, you are evaluating multiple trade offers and have identified positions with every league mate.

 

Most Desired Outcome (MDO): This is what you would like to attain and should be a win-lose position. In this case you are trading a player you’re looking to get rid of for a player you want.

 

Least Acceptable Outcome (LAO): You should decide if you are willing to accept a win-win or a lose-lose position to conduct the trade. For some, this may be a lose-lose proposition. This is the lowest trade you’re willing to accept in value.  Typically, you’re giving up a player lower than waiver wire material or the same (depending on strategy) for a player equal to waiver wire material or above waiver wire material.

 

Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement (BATNA): This should be higher than your Least Acceptable Outcome but a check down you already have in place for your Most Desired Outcome. If you have a Lose-Lose Least Acceptable Outcome, this should be a win-win or win lose proposition to a lesser degree. You are still giving up a player you want to get rid of but you are trading for a player you weren’t seeking 1st overall.

 

Zone of Possible Agreement (ZOPA): This is more or less a win-win proposition. You will have to check down from your Most Desired Outcome and it is different than your Best Alternative to Negotiated Agreement. At this point you are conceding your best case scenario to accept another player you find of value at or above waiver wire material and giving up a player you weren’t originally hoping to trade at or below waiver wire material.

 

Notes: Do not lose sight of your value regardless of trade talks. ALWAYS plan your trade positions in advance or you will undoubtedly accept lower value.  Anytime you are given a new trade proposal, you reassess your MDO, LAA, BATNA, and ZOPA.  Value should be assessed daily and especially if a player is returning or losing snaps/targets/carries, etc.

 

 

At this point, you are asking, are trades really worth it if I have to do all of this? The answer is yes! In an economics class we discussed why countries trade.  The silver lining is that some countries can produce products easier/cheaper than other companies.  Below I will take two league mates and identify their capabilities.  One is better at drafting Wide Receiver talent and one is better at drafting Running Back talent. When managing a roster, you are limited to the amount of slots you can hold at any given time. In these slots, the goal is to maintain a high level of talent at each position. Each square below is 1 x 1.

 

 

Before The Trade:

 

Chart 1 for negotiations article


Let’s assume Team 1 has a probability of hitting on a good Running Back at 100% but a probability of hitting on a good Wide Receiver at 50%.  Let’s also assume Team 2 has a probability of hitting on a good Running Back at 50% and a probability of hitting on a good Wide Receiver at 100%. Both are efficient where the other is not. Their area under the line is equal at 16.

 

Now, assume Team 1 trades 2-Wide Receivers for 2-Running Backs to Team 2.

 

 

After The Trade:

 

After the Trade Chart - negotiations article

 

After the trade, the area under both Team 1 and Team 2 are equal.  The area is 18 this time, which is 2 boxes higher than before.  This was a win-win trade and we must remind ourselves that in real life, no two players are the same.  One would benefit more than the other but in theory, the two would be better off if the trade was perceived as equal.  In real life, the value of a player is always changing based on hype, momentum, injuries, and other unknown factors. It is your job as a fantasy team manager to continue to build leverage through trades.

 

 

Toyota’s Manufacturing Company


Toyota revolutionized the production in the automobile industry with the introduction of Just-In-Time.  This theory is to minimize costs by coordinating the arrival of materials only when you need them.  In fantasy, this comes with acquiring fantasy players before they blow up.  Some like to stream but I am encouraging you to trade for players before they blow up.  In fantasy, your goal should be to consolidate with premium talent whenever possible.  This will give you more points per week throughout the year. Toyota’s Just-in-Time theory is often called “lean” which is exactly what your team should be, lean and elite.

 

Toyota used another principal called Kaizen.  Kaizen is the principal that Toyota used to continuously improve their manufacturing process.  They would stop the line, investigate problems and ask lower level employees for their insight. They would redesign their process or product attempting to eliminate costs and materials used. In fantasy football, we are constantly attempting to increase our fantasy outputs on a weekly basis. What I am suggesting as that no matter how big the increment, you should constantly attempt to acquire better talent.  You should make tactical moves that are aligned with your strategic moves.

 

 

So, How does this all work?

 

Immediately following the draft, I contact the commissioner for a league roster.  If you’re in a public league, email the entire league with your number or email, while requesting theirs. You don’t always get people to respond but don’t lose hope.

 

Before going on, I want to make one thing clear.  You can use this multiple times or one time throughout the season, it is entirely up to you. 

 

Stick to a weekly regimen. My goal week to week is to identify players I don’t want to keep on my roster, players I want to trade for, and up and comers on the waiver wire. Once I’ve done this, I send feeler trades AFTER attempting to communicate.  Prepare the soil before deciding to plant or you may give up more than what is desired. ALWAYS trade through, 2 of your players for one, to create a hole in your roster if you believe there is better talent on the waiver than your lowest rostered player. Try to make this happen before the waiver deadline if your league has late waivers or immediate trade approval. Be realistic with yourself and don’t ride a dying opportunity too long. You have limited roster spots and avoid a bottleneck while your opponents get the players you wish you could. Trust your instincts. Over the course of the past 14 years, I have felt good about players and refused to trade because the stats are different than my qualitative research. Don’t get addicted. Trading is very addictive and it is wise to step away every once in a while. Never trade for more players than what you’re trading away unless you absolutely need it to compete. There is plenty of talent to stream or use in a trade up later.

 

 

Saved Arrows

Wrapping up, do not leave your trades up during a game where a player is involved. I have been bit before on a trade and the commissioner was not forgiving. Trust your gut and realize your league may not research or value players as high or low as you do. If you can recognize their perceived value, you can leverage it against them and constantly improve your roster. If you decide to use this strategy, it takes time and you can’t expect top level athletes immediately. Stay consistent and trust yourself, it has raised my performance in just the past two years. This strategy is only recommended in redraft leagues and variations of it can be used in redraft leagues. Good luck and thank you for reading. Follow me on twitter @raiderbuchanon

 


 

by The Archer (@raiderbuchanon)


  

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