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May 22, 2018
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Eric Ebron

Detroit Lions

Ebron Could Use Some Luck


Colts signed TE Eric Ebron, formerly of the Lions, to a two-year contract. Coach Frank Reich called Ebron an "elite tight end."

The last time we saw Andrew Luck healthy (2016), the Colts used 2+ TE sets at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL and had the 6th-highest target share to TEs.


04/01/18, 11:32 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Carlos Hyde

San Francisco 49ers

Hyde and Seek


Browns agreed to terms with RB Carlos Hyde, formerly of the 49ers, on a three-year, $15 million contract.

Obtaining Hyde has several trickle-down effects; first it replaces Crowell who signed with the Jets, it probably diminishes Duke Johnson’s value a bit. Hyde is a better all-around back than Crowell was and will certainly take over the goal-line work seeing that he’s got 20+ pounds on Duke. It also reduces the likelihood that Cleveland takes Saquon Barkley with the 4th pick in the draft. They will most likely look to draft a defensive player (Chubb) or trade down again.


04/01/18, 11:28 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jerick McKinnon

Minnesota Vikings

McKinnon Goes West For Gold-Rush


49ers agreed to terms with RB Jerick McKinnon, formerly of the Vikings, on a four-year, $30 million contract.

McKinnon averaged a ho-hum 3.8 yards a carry for the Vikings and scored three rushing touchdowns. By contrast, San Francisco's former lead runner, Carlos Hyde, averaged 3.9 yards an attempt in 2017 and had eight rushing touchdowns.

It appears as though Shanahan is enamored with McKinnon's athletic metrics, but I'm not so sure he was "pounding the table" to get him. This move could push the Niner's to cut Joe Williams.


04/01/18, 11:12 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.sacbee.com


Mike Wallace

Baltimore Ravens

Eagles Keep Improving


Eagles signed WR Mike Wallace to a one-year contract.
Mike Wallace can still move posting a top five max speed among wide receivers last season. He will fill the void left by Torrey Smith as a speed vertical threat.


04/01/18, 11:08 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Terrelle Pryor

Washington Redskins

Jets Searching For Weapons


Jets agreed to terms with WR Terrelle Pryor, formerly of Washington and Cleveland.

Second year in a row on a new team doesn’t really help Pryor's cause, but I like the idea of him on the field with Teddy Bridgewater at some point. I would imagine, with some creativity, the Jets could really design some innovative gadget plays.
The Jets receiving corps really looks like a bunch of question marks at this point though, no telling what the week-to-week outcome will be with these guys.
Jermaine Kearse: 65 catches, 810 yards, 5 touchdowns (2017)
Robby Anderson: 63 catches, 941 yards, 7 touchdowns (2017)
Quincy Enunwa: 58 catches, 857 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)
Terrelle Pryor: 77 catches, 1007 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)


04/01/18, 11:04 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Carlos Henderson

Denver Broncos

Sleeper Watch


Broncos coach Vance Joseph said the team is "counting on" Carlos Henderson making an impact in 2018.

If you are paying attention to Staggs projections there is plenty of opportunity for Henderson to step into a solid number of targets in the slot. Henderson was hindered by injury and awful QB play last year. Being drafted in the 18th round or later in best-ball leagues, Henderson is the late round flyer that should be on your radar.


04/01/18, 11:00 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.denverpost.com


Ben Watson

Baltimore Ravens

Watson Returns To Big Easy


Saints signed TE Ben Watson, formerly of the Ravens, to a one-year contract.

Watson had 74 catches on 110 targets for 825 yards and 6 TD’s when he was with the Saints in 2015. After missing 2016 he had a pretty good year with Baltimore last year despite an anemic offense, with 61 catches on 79 targets for 522 yards and 4 TD’s. He’s not a bad late round flyer TE. He’s basically free right now, but I expect by the time the season starts he’ll be being drafted within the top 20 at the position.


04/01/18, 10:54 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jeff Janis

Green Bay Packers

Janis Truthers Challenged


Browns officially signed former Packers’ WR Jeff Janis.
The combine superstar never amounted to anything in Green Bay, I highly doubt Cleveland is the place for him to finally break-out.


04/01/18, 10:50 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Thomas Rawls

Seattle Seahawks

Jets Sign Rawls


Rawls had five RB1 games in 2015, one in 2016, and has been a disappointment since. He’s not worth your time in fantasy, but he could cause enough disruption in the Jets backfield to cut any upside we might have hoped for from Isaiah Crowell.


04/01/18, 10:48 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.newyorkjets.com


Allen Robinson

Jacksonville Jaguars

Coo coo ca choo Mr. Robinson


Bears signed WR Allen Robinson, formerly of the Jaguars, to a three-year, $42 million contract.

This is a great move for Robinson and Chicago. Nagy’s offense and the young QB, Trubiski, should benefit Robinson at least as much as Bortles did, and Chicago gets the top WR in free agency.
Everyone on the team will be in a new scheme so there will be an adjustment, but as they start to gel we should see a big second half. Robinson’s recovery from a torn ACL doesn’t scare me away from drafting him in the late third/early fourth, his current MFL10 ADP is 43 overall while his Draft app ADP is 59.9. I expect Robinson to be somewhere in the range of 75 receptions, for 1100 yards and 8 TD’s.


03/24/18, 08:25 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Sammy Watkins

Los Angeles Rams

KC Building Strong Air Attack


Chiefs signed Sammy Watkins, formerly of the Rams, to a three-year, $48 million contract.

I’m a big Sammy truther so getting him in the 5th or 6th round is a pure power move. His current Draft app ADP of 87.1 is an absolute steal, his MFL10 ADP of 69.5 is still a great value in my opinion. There are quite a few options for high targets in KC so I don’t expect him to see the 128 targets he saw his rookie year, but he should definitely see more than the 70 he saw last year. He’ll have an entire offseason to work with the near-rookie QB, and at age 25 he should have enough burst left to have a 70 catch, 1050 yd, 8TD line. For his career he has 16 receptions on 30 targets for 12 TD’s in the Red Zone, and 9 receptions on 13 targets, for 8 TD’s inside the opponents 10. He should be the exact WR the Chiefs need to get over the hump. As a team the Chiefs were 34/75 for 13 TD’s in the Red-Zone last year and 12/24 for 10 TD inside the 10.


03/24/18, 08:19 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.pro-football-reference.com


Kirk Cousins

Washington Redskins

Vikings Like That


Kirk Cousins plans to sign a three-year, fully-guaranteed contract from the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday. The deal is believed to be for around $86 million, and reports are it will be fully-guaranteed, a landmark for an NFL free agent.

Should be a lateral move for Kirk as far as fantasy, better WR’s, but fewer passes thrown in this offense. A healthy Dalvin Cook should be able to run out the clock if they are up in the second half of games and take the ball out of Cousins hands near the end zone. It should also help the overall efficiency of the offense so all in all it increases his floor, but cuts any garbage-time production we’ve seen with Washington. Kyle Rudolph becomes a big benefactor here, Cousins loves his TE, especially near the end-zone.


03/24/18, 08:16 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Case Keenum

Minnesota Vikings

Denver Makes Case


Broncos signed QB Case Keenum, formerly of the Vikings, to a two-year, $36 million contract.

Well, I was hoping for more than a bridge QB for my favorite WR (D. Thomas), but this is a definite upgrade from the three stooges Denver put behind center last year.


03/24/18, 08:13 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


LeGarrette Blount

Philadelphia Eagles

Detroit Sparks Up Blount


The Lions signed free agent RB LeGarrette Blount to a 1-year deal worth $4.5M. He’s back with Matt Patricia, as the New England ties are strong.

The Lions have needed a true goal-line/power-back for years. I expect Blount to get between 150-200 touches and all the short-yardage carries. Detroit’s offense doesn’t really fit what Blount brings to the table, but I expect Patricia will have some influence over how the offense will operate from here-on-out.


03/24/18, 08:10 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Cleveland Browns

Money Ball: The Sequel


Hate to start out the offseason with the Cleveland Browns, but they are makin’ moves!
Browns acquired: Tyrod Taylor, Jarvis Landry, Damarious Randall
Browns gave up: 2018 3rd-round pick (No. 65), 2018 4th-round pick, 2019 7th-round pick, DeShone Kizer

Building with experienced quality performers that have something to prove, by selling inconsequential draft picks is exactly what Sashi Brown was building up for. It’s a shame he won’t be around to reap the rewards, but these are quality moves for a win-now mentality.


03/09/18, 09:37 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Tyrod Taylor

Buffalo Bills

Hue Looks To TyGoat


Browns left tackle Joe Thomas, who's pondering his future, is a fan of Tyrod Taylor and has said so on the ThomaHawk Show podcast.

Tyrod is just one season removed (2016) from being the QB11 in average fantasy ppg, including seven 20+ point weeks and six 15+ point weeks. Given the current talent on the O-line and skill position weapons he could improve on those numbers. He has the potential to be this year’s Alex Smith, definitely heading my late-round (12+) QB picks now.


03/09/18, 09:32 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Deshone Kizer

Cleveland Browns

Packers Get In On The Fun


The Packers have traded for QB DeShone Kizer from the Browns to Green Bay.

This is the best possible scenario for Kizer, who was thrown into the fire last season. Getting the chance to develop and learn behind the best in the business is the best chance he has for longevity.


03/09/18, 09:30 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Torrey Smith

Philadelphia Eagles

On The Move Again


The Eagles trade WR Torrey Smith to the Panthers for CB Daryl Worley. Torrey Smith could fill the old Ted Ginn role which makes this fairly interesting. Stagg Party says it’s more of a boost for Cam than Torrey himself.

This is an absolute perfect fit, someone who isn’t going to demand the ball, but can take the top off a defense while McCaffrey, Olsen, and Cam work underneath. Torrey is looking like a great late-round flyer.


03/09/18, 09:28 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


DeMarco Murray

Tennessee Titans

Henry Hype Train Has Clear Track


DeMarco Murray was released by the Titans.
No surprise here, expect Derick Henry to be a lead back with 250+ touches, but they will bring in someone that will play the third-down, pass-catching role out of the backfield. I wouldn’t be surprised if they sign someone like Jerick McKinnon or Rex Burkhead, or even Darren Sproles or Charles Sims. There are also plenty of options in the NFL draft, Henry won’t be a true “Bell Cow.”


03/09/18, 09:17 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Marquise Goodwin

San Francisco 49ers

The Name Says It All


Marquise Goodwin and the 49ers have agreed to a 3yr extension worth $20.3M & 10M guaranteed.

Shanahan has found his big-play threat at a reasonable price. Goodwin caught 56 balls for 962 yards last season, but only had two TD’s. None of his six longest plays (33+ yards) were from Garoppollo so it leads me to believe they will still be looking for a top of the line WR, even with Garcon coming back from injury.


03/09/18, 09:15 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

A man using a stick to get leverage, how to obtain leverage in fantasy football

Negotiations - Fantasy Football Strategy by The Archer

Posted by d-Rx on 08/12/16

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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“Leverage is having something the other guy wants.  Or better yet, needs.  Or, best of all, simply cannot do without.” Donald Trump, The Art of the Deal.  Prior to his political campaign, Donald Trump wrote a book on making deals. Donald Trump’s book gave me insight to managing my in season fantasy roster.

 

In college, I took a class on negotiations and I was required to read The Art of the Deal. I took the knowledge I had learned in this class, Trump’s book, my economic class, and Toyota’s Manufacturing Company to synthesize a nasty trading component within my fantasy football strategy.  In the past two years, I have refined this strategy and average ~20 trades per league.  In this article, I will give you a brief understanding of my findings and how I apply these concepts to create my strategy within the season.

 

 

Leverage


What is it? In the fantasy football community, it can range from tactical and strategical assets to player insight.

 

Real Leverage: These are assets that other perceive as assets, not what you perceive as assets. Let’s define assets before proceeding.  Assets in the fantasy football realm that have some tradable value no matter how great or how small.  An example, a stud wide receiver that everyone wants to own and a hyped running back that is competing for a starting position.  Both hold different value and yet both face a common enemy, injuries.  Injured players depreciate in value immediately.

 

Pitfalls: This is tricky because it is your perceived value.  It is likely, if you are reading this, you have more intellectual knowledge of the actual value of players than your league mates because they are not reading articles like this.  This poses a problem because odds are, they do not value a player as high as you do, no matter the risk.

 

Obtaining Leverage: You obtain leverage and power over your league mates by doing research on the players that are rising and falling throughout the season.  This is the most common way and you can assume most league mates are doing this.  Where you make your money is searching players on Twitter.  This will bring up any mentions of injuries or insight from beat reporters that give you a tactical advantage. 

 

Let’s take the time to define the difference between tactical and strategic advantages.  Tactical advantages are short term moves that range from a day to a couple weeks.  Strategic advantages range from a couple weeks to the end of the season. The idea is to convert what appear as tactical moves into strategic moves.  This is important because if someone perceives strategical significance, they are less likely to trade a player because they pose some advantage in the playoffs.

 

 

Draft


It starts with the draft.  In the first couple rounds, establish your core assets.  These are players you will not want to trade and should be conservative picks that you try to minimize the risk of injury and have a clear understanding of their expected performance.  In mid to late rounds, start targeting blue chip players that are viable starters/flex position/trade assets.  In late rounds, go with the players with hype or players that you know will do well barring injury. The goal is to end with players that are undeniably your starters, potential trade bait or starters if you so choose to keep them and absolute must trade players.

 

 

Negotiations


There are 3 types of negation objectives to consider; win-win, win-lose, and lose-lose. When assessing these types of negotiations, you want to be ahead, no matter the outcome.  They are elementary but let’s dig into them to identify their importance.

 

Win-Win: This is ideal for both league teams.  Doing a win-win trade is beneficial for establishing long term trade talks because of the vested interest in a “good” outcome. Identify bottom feeders and help them raise their fantasy potential. They are likely to miss out in the fantasy playoffs and I recommend keeping communications throughout the league with these teams. I recommend using this strategy early to mid-season once players start defining their potential. (Weeks 1-8)

 

Win-Lose: This can lead to negative future relations or an unwillingness to trade down the road and should be used strategically to separate yourself from the sharks in your league. I recommend waiting to use this strategy until mid to late season. (Weeks 7-13)

 

Lose-Lose: This strategy should be used as a last resort.  I attempt to stray from this negotiation type unless it is with my top competitor and I believe it will take a piece they need more than I need my own.  It is also beneficial to concede if the league doesn’t like your overall strategy of constant trading. Consider this a late season strategy (Weeks 10+) because your focus should be on hoisting that championship.

 

 

Building your Plan


Whatever your strategy be consistent but allow yourself enough room to be semi flexible.  This depends on your personal emotions on risk and how much you are willing to tolerate. I personally am semi-risk averse and make trades that surprise me.

 

Objectives: Identify what triggers your league mates to say “Yes” or “No” to a trade, understand league mate’s value across the league (College/draft pedigree, tangibles or intangibles, etc.)

 

Assumptions: What is the terrain of your league.  Are they likely to trade? Do you have to have landslide trades in their favor or are they likely to trade a lot once they see others doing it? It’s important that you identify this within your league or this strategy is moot.

 

Profiles: Are your league mates using the same strategy? Probably not, I have been in very few leagues with more than one to three trade sharks. Identify those who are unwilling to trade and those who are or could be open to it. More or less, profile each league member within your league.  As an active user, inactive user, trader, non-trader, risk averse, a risk taker, or a combination of the previous profiles. This is critical because assessing the landscape will lead to your success of implementing this strategy.

 

Positions: Positions are predetermined outcomes that you have carefully evaluated. I will explain all of them in detail below. It should be noted, when considering this, you are evaluating multiple trade offers and have identified positions with every league mate.

 

Most Desired Outcome (MDO): This is what you would like to attain and should be a win-lose position. In this case you are trading a player you’re looking to get rid of for a player you want.

 

Least Acceptable Outcome (LAO): You should decide if you are willing to accept a win-win or a lose-lose position to conduct the trade. For some, this may be a lose-lose proposition. This is the lowest trade you’re willing to accept in value.  Typically, you’re giving up a player lower than waiver wire material or the same (depending on strategy) for a player equal to waiver wire material or above waiver wire material.

 

Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement (BATNA): This should be higher than your Least Acceptable Outcome but a check down you already have in place for your Most Desired Outcome. If you have a Lose-Lose Least Acceptable Outcome, this should be a win-win or win lose proposition to a lesser degree. You are still giving up a player you want to get rid of but you are trading for a player you weren’t seeking 1st overall.

 

Zone of Possible Agreement (ZOPA): This is more or less a win-win proposition. You will have to check down from your Most Desired Outcome and it is different than your Best Alternative to Negotiated Agreement. At this point you are conceding your best case scenario to accept another player you find of value at or above waiver wire material and giving up a player you weren’t originally hoping to trade at or below waiver wire material.

 

Notes: Do not lose sight of your value regardless of trade talks. ALWAYS plan your trade positions in advance or you will undoubtedly accept lower value.  Anytime you are given a new trade proposal, you reassess your MDO, LAA, BATNA, and ZOPA.  Value should be assessed daily and especially if a player is returning or losing snaps/targets/carries, etc.

 

 

At this point, you are asking, are trades really worth it if I have to do all of this? The answer is yes! In an economics class we discussed why countries trade.  The silver lining is that some countries can produce products easier/cheaper than other companies.  Below I will take two league mates and identify their capabilities.  One is better at drafting Wide Receiver talent and one is better at drafting Running Back talent. When managing a roster, you are limited to the amount of slots you can hold at any given time. In these slots, the goal is to maintain a high level of talent at each position. Each square below is 1 x 1.

 

 

Before The Trade:

 

Chart 1 for negotiations article


Let’s assume Team 1 has a probability of hitting on a good Running Back at 100% but a probability of hitting on a good Wide Receiver at 50%.  Let’s also assume Team 2 has a probability of hitting on a good Running Back at 50% and a probability of hitting on a good Wide Receiver at 100%. Both are efficient where the other is not. Their area under the line is equal at 16.

 

Now, assume Team 1 trades 2-Wide Receivers for 2-Running Backs to Team 2.

 

 

After The Trade:

 

After the Trade Chart - negotiations article

 

After the trade, the area under both Team 1 and Team 2 are equal.  The area is 18 this time, which is 2 boxes higher than before.  This was a win-win trade and we must remind ourselves that in real life, no two players are the same.  One would benefit more than the other but in theory, the two would be better off if the trade was perceived as equal.  In real life, the value of a player is always changing based on hype, momentum, injuries, and other unknown factors. It is your job as a fantasy team manager to continue to build leverage through trades.

 

 

Toyota’s Manufacturing Company


Toyota revolutionized the production in the automobile industry with the introduction of Just-In-Time.  This theory is to minimize costs by coordinating the arrival of materials only when you need them.  In fantasy, this comes with acquiring fantasy players before they blow up.  Some like to stream but I am encouraging you to trade for players before they blow up.  In fantasy, your goal should be to consolidate with premium talent whenever possible.  This will give you more points per week throughout the year. Toyota’s Just-in-Time theory is often called “lean” which is exactly what your team should be, lean and elite.

 

Toyota used another principal called Kaizen.  Kaizen is the principal that Toyota used to continuously improve their manufacturing process.  They would stop the line, investigate problems and ask lower level employees for their insight. They would redesign their process or product attempting to eliminate costs and materials used. In fantasy football, we are constantly attempting to increase our fantasy outputs on a weekly basis. What I am suggesting as that no matter how big the increment, you should constantly attempt to acquire better talent.  You should make tactical moves that are aligned with your strategic moves.

 

 

So, How does this all work?

 

Immediately following the draft, I contact the commissioner for a league roster.  If you’re in a public league, email the entire league with your number or email, while requesting theirs. You don’t always get people to respond but don’t lose hope.

 

Before going on, I want to make one thing clear.  You can use this multiple times or one time throughout the season, it is entirely up to you. 

 

Stick to a weekly regimen. My goal week to week is to identify players I don’t want to keep on my roster, players I want to trade for, and up and comers on the waiver wire. Once I’ve done this, I send feeler trades AFTER attempting to communicate.  Prepare the soil before deciding to plant or you may give up more than what is desired. ALWAYS trade through, 2 of your players for one, to create a hole in your roster if you believe there is better talent on the waiver than your lowest rostered player. Try to make this happen before the waiver deadline if your league has late waivers or immediate trade approval. Be realistic with yourself and don’t ride a dying opportunity too long. You have limited roster spots and avoid a bottleneck while your opponents get the players you wish you could. Trust your instincts. Over the course of the past 14 years, I have felt good about players and refused to trade because the stats are different than my qualitative research. Don’t get addicted. Trading is very addictive and it is wise to step away every once in a while. Never trade for more players than what you’re trading away unless you absolutely need it to compete. There is plenty of talent to stream or use in a trade up later.

 

 

Saved Arrows

Wrapping up, do not leave your trades up during a game where a player is involved. I have been bit before on a trade and the commissioner was not forgiving. Trust your gut and realize your league may not research or value players as high or low as you do. If you can recognize their perceived value, you can leverage it against them and constantly improve your roster. If you decide to use this strategy, it takes time and you can’t expect top level athletes immediately. Stay consistent and trust yourself, it has raised my performance in just the past two years. This strategy is only recommended in redraft leagues and variations of it can be used in redraft leagues. Good luck and thank you for reading. Follow me on twitter @raiderbuchanon

 


 

by The Archer (@raiderbuchanon)


  

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