Week 20
January 22, 2018
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Rex Burkhead

New England Patriots

Rex Back


Despite being listed as questionable for Sunday’s AFC Championship game vs. Jaguars, it appears as though Patriots’ RB Rex Burkhead will play.
This will cut into the 13 targets Amendola saw last week.


01/20/18, 10:49 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Adam Thielen

Minnesota Vikings

Making The Wright Move?


Adam Thielen (back) is questionable for Sunday's NFC Championship game against the Eagles.
He's fully expected to play after limited practices the last two days. He probably won’t be 100 percent so if you’re putting in a line-up you might want to pivot to Diggs or save some money and drop down to Jarius Wright who grabbed three-of-six targets for 56 yards Sunday and has established himself as the number three WR in this offense.


01/20/18, 10:31 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Leonard Fournette

Jacksonville Jaguars

Ankle In Question Again


Fournette aggravated his ankle in the Divisional Round and was limited early in the week. He was left off the injury report for Sunday's AFC Championship game. Fournette saw a heavy workload last week getting 27 touches in Jacksonville's upset of the Steelers. T.J. Yeldon rushed five times for 20 yards and a touchdown and caught 3-of-3 targets for 57 yards. If you’re looking for a cheaper option I expect we see Yeldon to be used to keep Fournette from aggravating the injury early.


01/20/18, 10:23 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Tom Brady

New England Patriots

Give Him A Hand


Reports are that Tom Brady threw the ball "incredibly well" during Friday's practice. He is listed as questionable for Sunday's AFC Championship game against Jacksonville, but I don’t think there was any real doubt that he’d play. Keep in mind what D-Rex spoke about on the Pyro Podcast 303 andScott Barrett tweeted about Brady last week:
Weeks 1-10: 21.2 fantasy points per game, 110.9 passer rating
Weeks 11-17: 14.2 fantasy points per game, 87.3 passer rating
The hand injury on top of his achilles injury, as well as going against the Jags #1 rated pass defense could keep the Patriots attack grounded this week. Lewis is the obvious play, but if Burkhead (Q) comes back it could be he or White that steals the show.


01/20/18, 10:22 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Tom Brady

New England Patriots

Tom Still Terrific?


Tom Brady was first listed on the team's injury report with an Achilles injury heading in to Week 11.
Weeks 1-10: 21.2 fantasy points per game, 110.9 passer rating
Weeks 11-17: 14.2 fantasy points per game, 87.3 passer rating

Fantasy Goo: This should line up for a good week for Brady, Tennessee is 8th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, but just below average against QB’s. The Patriots are 13 point favorites on Saturday Night, if Brady doesn’t do it at home in prime-time then something is wrong.


01/09/18, 07:30 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alvin Kamara

New Orleans Saints

Primary Role Shifting


Saints have run 5 times at/inside opponent's 5-yard line over last 4 weeks (including playoffs):
Alvin Kamara 3 carries, Zach Line 1, Mark Ingram 1. Kamara was in on all 3 Saints run plays at/inside 5 vs. Panthers last week, including Line's 1-yard TD run.

Fantasy Goo: If you’re trying to decide between Kamara and Ingram for the playoff run, Kamara looks to be the much better play.


01/09/18, 07:20 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jay Ajayi

Philadelphia Eagles

It's A Trap


Jay Ajayi (knee) is practicing in full for the Divisional Round.

Fantasy Goo: Atlanta is 5th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s this year and they are more susceptible to pass-catching backs. Todd Gurley rushed 14 times for 101 yards in the Rams' Wild Card loss to the Falcons, adding four receptions for 10 additional yards. Ajayi might have been drafted before Gurley this year, but that was clearly a mistake. Ajayi has talent, but he’s far from a good option this week.


01/09/18, 07:16 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Chris Hogan

New England Patriots

Back in Action


Chris Hogan (shoulder) is expected to return for Saturday's Divisional Round game against the Titans.

Fantasy Goo: He’s going to take a couple of weeks to get in tune with the offense, I’m looking to save him until the Super Bowl if you’re in one of those one and done fantasy playoff tournaments.


01/09/18, 07:14 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Drew Brees

New Orleans Saints

Strength vs Strength


Saints RBs led NFL during regular season in receptions (9.0) and receiving yards (77.8) per game.
Vikings held opposing RBs to fewest yards per target (4.2) and 3rd-fewest yards per game (30.6).

Fantasy Goo: The Vikings have been absolutely sick in all aspects on defense this year. If the Saints are going to pull this one out it sounds like it’s going to have to be a Brees week, I’m not so sure he’s going to be the guy you want to start on the road this week.


01/09/18, 07:12 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


LeSean McCoy

Buffalo Bills

Not The Real McCoy


LeSean McCoy said if he plays Sunday, "I want to be able to cut well enough to where I don't have a lot of pain cutting. I just want to be close, or the best as far as 100 percent as I can get. The type of game like this, you got to lay it all on the line.”

Fantasy Goo: McCoy is a poor play against the Jags this week. The Jags strength on defense is against the pass (#1 in FP allowed), but they are still strong against the rush (11th). I’m not taking any Bills on fantasy playoff squads or in DFS this week.


01/04/18, 09:29 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Derrick Henry

Tennessee Titans

Arrow Pointing Down


DeMarco Murray (knee) didn't practice again Thursday. Derrick Henry show ready to go.

Fantasy Goo: The way to attack KC is through the air, they rank 9th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s. They will most likely be in negative game script. KC hasn’t allowed any team to score over 20 points in Arrowhead all year.


01/04/18, 09:27 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Julio Jones

Atlanta Falcons

No Fly Zone


Julio Jones finished 11th in NFL in red-zone targets but caught only 5 of 19. He finished 4th in targets inside 10 but only caught 4 of 11.

Fantasy Goo: The Rams have a strong pass defense, especially against outside receivers, but are second worst in fantasy points allowed to RB’s. Freeman and Coleman are the only Falcons I am considering this week.


01/04/18, 09:25 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Kenny Golladay

Detroit Lions

Under the Radar


In the first game with TJ Jones (shoulder) on IR last week, Kenny Golladay played 95% of snaps and led DET WRs with 8 targets.

Fantasy Goo: Marvin Jones has a history of shredding the Packers defense and is a solid play at $6500 on DK, but Golladay is half the price ($3300) and will probably see a similar number of targets. If Detroit had something to play for I’d be stacking the heck out of this game, but I still think it’s smart to have one of these guys in the line-up this week.


12/31/17, 09:46 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Patrick Mahomes

Kansas City Chiefs

Rookie Debut


Patrick Mahomes was 2nd in PFF’s QB Rating when kept clean in preseason. He rushed for 744 yards, 22 TDs in his last two years at Texas Tech. Denver has allowed multiple passing TDs to six-straight QBs not named Petty or Brissett.

Fantasy Goo: The rookie was supposed to take over for Alex Smith much earlier this season, but Smith and the Chief’s came out firing on all cylinders and kept the rookie on the bench. Mahomes will get his chance this week as Smith gets a week off before the playoffs. Denver may be packing it in, but they still have one of the best defenses and I expect they will play more inspired this week against a division rival.


12/31/17, 09:32 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Wayne Gallman

New York Giants

Last Man Standing


Giants will be without Shepard (neck), Engram (ribs), and King (concussion) vs. WAS. Wayne Gallman has 9, 7, 8 target counts in last three weeks.

Fantasy Goo: Washington ranks 24th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s and Gallman is $4200 on DK. Feels like a great way to save and pay up at other positions.


12/31/17, 09:21 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alex Collins

Baltimore Ravens

Burfict Situation


Bengals LB Vontaze Burfict ruled out for game Sunday at Baltimore because of shoulder injury.

Fantasy Goo: Collins becomes a solid RB1 this week. Cincinnati’s run defense is a sieve with Burfict out.


12/31/17, 09:19 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Akeem Hunt

Houston Texans

Akeem No Dream


Charcandrick West is out Sunday vs Denver with an illness. Akeem Hunt and Kareem Hunt only RBs on active roster for KC. It would be a surprise to see Kareem play much. That means a ton of Akeem Hunt and likely some De'Anthony Thomas on passing downs.

Fantasy Goo: Akeem is min price ($3000) on DK so the definition of a free-square, but there’s a reason he’s bounced around the NFL and never earned a starting role. Denver is 5th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, I’m not rostering Akeem when there are so many other options this week.


12/31/17, 09:17 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


DeAndre Hopkins

Houston Texans

Milestone Not Worth The Risk


Bill O'Brien on DeAndre Hopkins' status: 'Probably won't know up until game time'. Typically, we might classify this as coach-speak, but Hopkins has never missed a game, and is four catches away from 100 for the season. He's probably pushing hard to play.

Fantasy Goo: This is an awesome match-up for the Houston WR’s going against a very weak Indy pass defense, but there is really no reason for Hopkins to play, especially with the calf injury. At $8400 on DK he’s just way too pricey given this news. A sneaky start might be Will Fuller at $4300, he has 5 targets in each of the past three games and is coming off some difficult match-ups. Earlier in the season he was a superstar with Watson throwing the ball, but he has always had the big play in his arsenal no matter who the QB is.


12/29/17, 10:03 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Dion Lewis

New England Patriots

Vultures Are Always Flying


James White (ankle) remained limited at Thursday's practice. White was absent for last week's win over Buffalo but should be out there against the Jets in Week 17. He ranks eighth among running backs with 56 catches this year.

Fantasy Goo: Lewis dominated last week with White and Burkhead out, even though Gillislee vultured a TD. I would imagine that White playing will take away the five receptions Lewis had last week and the Jets actually have a better rush defense than the Pats week 16 opponent (Buf). The Pats will be looking to lock-up home field advantage and won’t be resting their starters, but they will probably be looking to get everyone some work as they prep for the playoffs. Gillislee appears to be nursing a hammy and is not expected to play, but let’s not forget how White performed last year in the Super Bowl.


12/29/17, 09:47 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

Pittsburgh Steelers

Stars Sitting


The Steelers Marcus Gilbert tells reporter Tim Benz that the Steelers won't play Ben Roethlisberger or Le'Veon Bell in finale vs. Cleveland. Landry Jones will be under center for Pittsburgh and Fitzgerald Toussaint and Stevan Ridley will form a thoroughly underwhelming RB committee against the Browns.

Fantasy Goo: Underwhelming is an understatement for these two backs, a highly respected fantasy website hasn’t even updated the news on these two since the pre-season and doesn’t even recognize them as being on the team. The one player of note in this is Martavis Bryant, The Alien averages over 17 ppr points per game with Landry at the helm as opposed to 8.4 ppg with other QB’s. He also has 5 TD’s in 5 home games with Landry. Granted most of this production comes from 2015 when they worked together often in the preseason, but Bryant could be a very sneaky GPP play this week.


12/29/17, 09:23 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

A man using a stick to get leverage, how to obtain leverage in fantasy football

Negotiations - Fantasy Football Strategy by The Archer

Posted by d-Rx on 08/12/16

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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“Leverage is having something the other guy wants.  Or better yet, needs.  Or, best of all, simply cannot do without.” Donald Trump, The Art of the Deal.  Prior to his political campaign, Donald Trump wrote a book on making deals. Donald Trump’s book gave me insight to managing my in season fantasy roster.

 

In college, I took a class on negotiations and I was required to read The Art of the Deal. I took the knowledge I had learned in this class, Trump’s book, my economic class, and Toyota’s Manufacturing Company to synthesize a nasty trading component within my fantasy football strategy.  In the past two years, I have refined this strategy and average ~20 trades per league.  In this article, I will give you a brief understanding of my findings and how I apply these concepts to create my strategy within the season.

 

 

Leverage


What is it? In the fantasy football community, it can range from tactical and strategical assets to player insight.

 

Real Leverage: These are assets that other perceive as assets, not what you perceive as assets. Let’s define assets before proceeding.  Assets in the fantasy football realm that have some tradable value no matter how great or how small.  An example, a stud wide receiver that everyone wants to own and a hyped running back that is competing for a starting position.  Both hold different value and yet both face a common enemy, injuries.  Injured players depreciate in value immediately.

 

Pitfalls: This is tricky because it is your perceived value.  It is likely, if you are reading this, you have more intellectual knowledge of the actual value of players than your league mates because they are not reading articles like this.  This poses a problem because odds are, they do not value a player as high as you do, no matter the risk.

 

Obtaining Leverage: You obtain leverage and power over your league mates by doing research on the players that are rising and falling throughout the season.  This is the most common way and you can assume most league mates are doing this.  Where you make your money is searching players on Twitter.  This will bring up any mentions of injuries or insight from beat reporters that give you a tactical advantage. 

 

Let’s take the time to define the difference between tactical and strategic advantages.  Tactical advantages are short term moves that range from a day to a couple weeks.  Strategic advantages range from a couple weeks to the end of the season. The idea is to convert what appear as tactical moves into strategic moves.  This is important because if someone perceives strategical significance, they are less likely to trade a player because they pose some advantage in the playoffs.

 

 

Draft


It starts with the draft.  In the first couple rounds, establish your core assets.  These are players you will not want to trade and should be conservative picks that you try to minimize the risk of injury and have a clear understanding of their expected performance.  In mid to late rounds, start targeting blue chip players that are viable starters/flex position/trade assets.  In late rounds, go with the players with hype or players that you know will do well barring injury. The goal is to end with players that are undeniably your starters, potential trade bait or starters if you so choose to keep them and absolute must trade players.

 

 

Negotiations


There are 3 types of negation objectives to consider; win-win, win-lose, and lose-lose. When assessing these types of negotiations, you want to be ahead, no matter the outcome.  They are elementary but let’s dig into them to identify their importance.

 

Win-Win: This is ideal for both league teams.  Doing a win-win trade is beneficial for establishing long term trade talks because of the vested interest in a “good” outcome. Identify bottom feeders and help them raise their fantasy potential. They are likely to miss out in the fantasy playoffs and I recommend keeping communications throughout the league with these teams. I recommend using this strategy early to mid-season once players start defining their potential. (Weeks 1-8)

 

Win-Lose: This can lead to negative future relations or an unwillingness to trade down the road and should be used strategically to separate yourself from the sharks in your league. I recommend waiting to use this strategy until mid to late season. (Weeks 7-13)

 

Lose-Lose: This strategy should be used as a last resort.  I attempt to stray from this negotiation type unless it is with my top competitor and I believe it will take a piece they need more than I need my own.  It is also beneficial to concede if the league doesn’t like your overall strategy of constant trading. Consider this a late season strategy (Weeks 10+) because your focus should be on hoisting that championship.

 

 

Building your Plan


Whatever your strategy be consistent but allow yourself enough room to be semi flexible.  This depends on your personal emotions on risk and how much you are willing to tolerate. I personally am semi-risk averse and make trades that surprise me.

 

Objectives: Identify what triggers your league mates to say “Yes” or “No” to a trade, understand league mate’s value across the league (College/draft pedigree, tangibles or intangibles, etc.)

 

Assumptions: What is the terrain of your league.  Are they likely to trade? Do you have to have landslide trades in their favor or are they likely to trade a lot once they see others doing it? It’s important that you identify this within your league or this strategy is moot.

 

Profiles: Are your league mates using the same strategy? Probably not, I have been in very few leagues with more than one to three trade sharks. Identify those who are unwilling to trade and those who are or could be open to it. More or less, profile each league member within your league.  As an active user, inactive user, trader, non-trader, risk averse, a risk taker, or a combination of the previous profiles. This is critical because assessing the landscape will lead to your success of implementing this strategy.

 

Positions: Positions are predetermined outcomes that you have carefully evaluated. I will explain all of them in detail below. It should be noted, when considering this, you are evaluating multiple trade offers and have identified positions with every league mate.

 

Most Desired Outcome (MDO): This is what you would like to attain and should be a win-lose position. In this case you are trading a player you’re looking to get rid of for a player you want.

 

Least Acceptable Outcome (LAO): You should decide if you are willing to accept a win-win or a lose-lose position to conduct the trade. For some, this may be a lose-lose proposition. This is the lowest trade you’re willing to accept in value.  Typically, you’re giving up a player lower than waiver wire material or the same (depending on strategy) for a player equal to waiver wire material or above waiver wire material.

 

Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement (BATNA): This should be higher than your Least Acceptable Outcome but a check down you already have in place for your Most Desired Outcome. If you have a Lose-Lose Least Acceptable Outcome, this should be a win-win or win lose proposition to a lesser degree. You are still giving up a player you want to get rid of but you are trading for a player you weren’t seeking 1st overall.

 

Zone of Possible Agreement (ZOPA): This is more or less a win-win proposition. You will have to check down from your Most Desired Outcome and it is different than your Best Alternative to Negotiated Agreement. At this point you are conceding your best case scenario to accept another player you find of value at or above waiver wire material and giving up a player you weren’t originally hoping to trade at or below waiver wire material.

 

Notes: Do not lose sight of your value regardless of trade talks. ALWAYS plan your trade positions in advance or you will undoubtedly accept lower value.  Anytime you are given a new trade proposal, you reassess your MDO, LAA, BATNA, and ZOPA.  Value should be assessed daily and especially if a player is returning or losing snaps/targets/carries, etc.

 

 

At this point, you are asking, are trades really worth it if I have to do all of this? The answer is yes! In an economics class we discussed why countries trade.  The silver lining is that some countries can produce products easier/cheaper than other companies.  Below I will take two league mates and identify their capabilities.  One is better at drafting Wide Receiver talent and one is better at drafting Running Back talent. When managing a roster, you are limited to the amount of slots you can hold at any given time. In these slots, the goal is to maintain a high level of talent at each position. Each square below is 1 x 1.

 

 

Before The Trade:

 

Chart 1 for negotiations article


Let’s assume Team 1 has a probability of hitting on a good Running Back at 100% but a probability of hitting on a good Wide Receiver at 50%.  Let’s also assume Team 2 has a probability of hitting on a good Running Back at 50% and a probability of hitting on a good Wide Receiver at 100%. Both are efficient where the other is not. Their area under the line is equal at 16.

 

Now, assume Team 1 trades 2-Wide Receivers for 2-Running Backs to Team 2.

 

 

After The Trade:

 

After the Trade Chart - negotiations article

 

After the trade, the area under both Team 1 and Team 2 are equal.  The area is 18 this time, which is 2 boxes higher than before.  This was a win-win trade and we must remind ourselves that in real life, no two players are the same.  One would benefit more than the other but in theory, the two would be better off if the trade was perceived as equal.  In real life, the value of a player is always changing based on hype, momentum, injuries, and other unknown factors. It is your job as a fantasy team manager to continue to build leverage through trades.

 

 

Toyota’s Manufacturing Company


Toyota revolutionized the production in the automobile industry with the introduction of Just-In-Time.  This theory is to minimize costs by coordinating the arrival of materials only when you need them.  In fantasy, this comes with acquiring fantasy players before they blow up.  Some like to stream but I am encouraging you to trade for players before they blow up.  In fantasy, your goal should be to consolidate with premium talent whenever possible.  This will give you more points per week throughout the year. Toyota’s Just-in-Time theory is often called “lean” which is exactly what your team should be, lean and elite.

 

Toyota used another principal called Kaizen.  Kaizen is the principal that Toyota used to continuously improve their manufacturing process.  They would stop the line, investigate problems and ask lower level employees for their insight. They would redesign their process or product attempting to eliminate costs and materials used. In fantasy football, we are constantly attempting to increase our fantasy outputs on a weekly basis. What I am suggesting as that no matter how big the increment, you should constantly attempt to acquire better talent.  You should make tactical moves that are aligned with your strategic moves.

 

 

So, How does this all work?

 

Immediately following the draft, I contact the commissioner for a league roster.  If you’re in a public league, email the entire league with your number or email, while requesting theirs. You don’t always get people to respond but don’t lose hope.

 

Before going on, I want to make one thing clear.  You can use this multiple times or one time throughout the season, it is entirely up to you. 

 

Stick to a weekly regimen. My goal week to week is to identify players I don’t want to keep on my roster, players I want to trade for, and up and comers on the waiver wire. Once I’ve done this, I send feeler trades AFTER attempting to communicate.  Prepare the soil before deciding to plant or you may give up more than what is desired. ALWAYS trade through, 2 of your players for one, to create a hole in your roster if you believe there is better talent on the waiver than your lowest rostered player. Try to make this happen before the waiver deadline if your league has late waivers or immediate trade approval. Be realistic with yourself and don’t ride a dying opportunity too long. You have limited roster spots and avoid a bottleneck while your opponents get the players you wish you could. Trust your instincts. Over the course of the past 14 years, I have felt good about players and refused to trade because the stats are different than my qualitative research. Don’t get addicted. Trading is very addictive and it is wise to step away every once in a while. Never trade for more players than what you’re trading away unless you absolutely need it to compete. There is plenty of talent to stream or use in a trade up later.

 

 

Saved Arrows

Wrapping up, do not leave your trades up during a game where a player is involved. I have been bit before on a trade and the commissioner was not forgiving. Trust your gut and realize your league may not research or value players as high or low as you do. If you can recognize their perceived value, you can leverage it against them and constantly improve your roster. If you decide to use this strategy, it takes time and you can’t expect top level athletes immediately. Stay consistent and trust yourself, it has raised my performance in just the past two years. This strategy is only recommended in redraft leagues and variations of it can be used in redraft leagues. Good luck and thank you for reading. Follow me on twitter @raiderbuchanon

 


 

by The Archer (@raiderbuchanon)


  

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