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August 17, 2018
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Cooper Kupp

Los Angeles Rams

Mr. Cooper's neighborhood


Cooper Kupp was 4th in the NFL last year in red-zone targets. Kupp and Goff have the most chemistry of all the receivers on the team as Goff targeted him more than anyone last year. Everyone is expecting Cooks to lead these receivers in points this year, but Kupp will be the receiver to own. Sammy Watkins had eight red-zone touchdowns last year. Cooks is not a red-zone target receiver, so Kupp should see more targets and could sneak into the WR2 with massive upside.


08/13/18, 09:39 PM CDT by C-wags

Source: pyromaniac.com


Jerick McKinnon

Minnesota Vikings

The Jet is set to take off!


Mckinnon has been a super divisive player this offseason. Especially after the first preseason game where he didn't amass many yards and the following day he injured himself in practice. I constantly hear people question his ability to carry the ball 200+ times or that he can’t run between the tackles, or he’s unproven in a lead role. This is all NONSENSE and you shouldn’t believe any of it. Shanahan had his pick of players that he could’ve signed instead of Mckinnon, including Dion Lewis, Carlos Hyde, or drafting a rookie. He chose Mckinnon cause he felt he fit his offensive system in the same way that Devante Freeman fit his scheme. The 49ers just signed Alfred Morris today as a safety net, but I’m taking all the Mckinnon I can this year. I see him carrying the ball 205car/950yds/6td while also amassing 60rec/500yds/5td making him an RB1 this year. Don't be scared, and steal him away from people that are.


08/13/18, 09:24 PM CDT by C-wags

Source: pyromaniac.com


Marquise Goodwin

San Francisco 49ers

Too good, too fast


Marquiae goodwin has been targeted like a number one in camp. With Pierre Garcon likely squaring off with one of the toughest schedules against number one DBs, Goodwin could break out even more than he did last year. I wouldn't put it past him to put up T.Y HIlton numbers this year. Pick him up in the 6th and 7th round and pile up the points.


08/13/18, 09:11 PM CDT by C-wags

Source: pyromaniac.com


Jay Ajayi

Philadelphia Eagles

Ready To Fly


In 2016 Ajayi racked up 1272 yards on 260 carries and 8 TD’s and finished as the RB11 in both standard and PPR scoring. Last year Miami ran him out of town when he struggled in an anemic offense. He was not heavily used when he got to Philly, but his touches did increase every week until the Superbowl. He was also hyper efficient gaining 5.8 yards per carry and 9.1 yards per reception. Despite the general perception Clements usage went down with Ajayi’s arrival, even with Smallwood going down with injury. The Eagles have the number 1 offensive line as graded by PFF, and 18 RB targets and 192 carries vacated. Ajayi is a safe pick in the fourth round and a steal in the fifth.


08/02/18, 06:08 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.nflmock.com


Jimmy Graham

Green Bay Packers

Split Wide, Back in Stride


He is coming off a season that produced only 57 receptions for 520 yards, his fewest since his rookie season. With that said, Graham remains a big-time weapon in the red zone. He led the league last year with 27 targets in the region, which led to 10 touchdowns. You can bet Rodgers and play-caller Mike McCarthy will be utilizing his skills early and often when knocking on the door of the end zone.
Look for McCarthy to use a variety of personnel groupings with his new tight end group and expect to see Graham split out wide as a receiver much more than as a traditional in-line tight end.

This goes right along with what I was saying on Pyro podcast 308. I expect Graham to be used as a wide receiver and not a tight end. When Graham was negotiating his contract in his last season in New Orleans he wanted to be paid on scale with wide receivers because he rarely lined-up as an in-line tight end. When Seattle paid him, he did whatever they asked, and they asked him to block more. He was out for five games that year, but averaged one less reception per game and only scored two TD’s, after having at least nine TD’s in the previous four years. Overall Graham saw about 25% fewer targets while in Seattle compared to New Orleans and his fantasy numbers reflect it. I see Green Bay using him more like he was used in New Orleans, and even though he has obviously lost a step or two I see him as the major replacement for the Jordy Nelson targets.


07/22/18, 01:41 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.packersnews.com


Aaron Jones

Green Bay Packers

Cream Rises To The Top


Jones’ 5.55 YPC on first- and second-down carries trailed only Alvin Kamara (6.24) for best in the league last year. Jamaal Williams averaged 3.80 YPC on first- and second-down in 2017.

He’s slid two rounds since the announcement of his two game suspension, he is a screaming value if you can get him in the ninth round. We already knew he was going to be competing in a crowded backfield so missing two games really shouldn’t be a big hit to his overall production. The likelihood of either of the other two backs taking over the role is slim, Jones should be able to carve out 10 touches a game when he gets back with fresh legs. They are all high risk for injuries so I’m hoping this added rest will help Jones in the long run.


07/21/18, 06:51 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Nelson Agholor

Philadelphia Eagles

Solidified Role


In 2017, Nelson Agholor had 62 recs, 768 yds, 9 TDs and 7 games of WR2 or better. There is no reason he wouldn't maintain this output, even with additions in the offense. Agholor had to carve out a role for himself and beat out incumbent Jordan Matthews. This year he'll be the main slot receiver and have an established role from the start.


07/21/18, 06:49 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Sterling Shepard

New York Giants

Buying The Slot Receiver in a Shurmur Offense


Sterling Shepard is currently 24 years old with a 124/1,414/10 career line, in two seasons. He finished 2017 as the WR42 in 11 games (WR22 in FP/G) with only a 13.9% target share. He finished 2016 as the WR36 as a rookie. He's currently being drafted as the WR42 in MFL10’s.

Shepard does see more targets (+2.7), get more receptions (+2.3), more yards (+28), and get about three more PPR points per game when Beckham is out. But he still averages over 11 PPR points per game when he is playing. Apparently Shepard is more open in the end-zone when Beckham is playing, as he averages three times as many TD’s when they are both playing.


07/21/18, 06:47 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Allen Hurns

Jacksonville Jaguars

Plenty of Targets in Dallas


He’s been hampered by injuries over the past couple of years, but when he has stayed healthy and gotten the targets he has been successful. His best season was in 2015, he had 105 Targets for 64 Receptions at 1031 Yards for 10 TDs, that’s 16.11 Yards Per Reception and a 61% Catch Rate coming from Blake Bortles. He finished as the WR14 in Standard Scoring and WR18 in PPR.

He's an amazing value in the 11th round of current best-ball drafts.


07/21/18, 06:41 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Eric Ebron

Detroit Lions

Second Team Breath's New Life Into TE


Outside Brady, Luck is the only other QB to support 2 TE's, both Fleener and Allen had 8 TD's with Luck. Frank Reich runs 2 TE sets very successfully - see: 2018 Eagles. TE1's for Coach Reich have never finished worse than 12th. Yes, Doyle would seem like the obvious choice after last season, but that was with Brissett who needed a quick dump off outlet. Luck isn't a check-down machine.

Eric Ebron has lined up "everywhere" in the Colts offense. And the new tight end already is beginning to feel at home in Indianapolis. Without a strong WR2, Ebron could see a large number of targets. The Colt's line-up in two TE sets more than any other team in the NFL.


07/21/18, 06:36 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Matt Breida

San Francisco 49ers

Filling Coleman Role


“One guy who stood out at Niners practice to me was RB Matt Breida. No one talks about him, but the dude is gonna get some run this year. Fast downhill player.”

This is just some more camp hype from a beat reporter, but if they don’t get another running back through trade or free-agency Brieda is going to see plenty of touches to pay off being picked in the 15th round of fantasy drafts. McKinnon has never had over 205 touches in a season, that leaves plenty of opportunity in a Shanahan offense.


07/21/18, 06:28 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


LeSean McCoy

Buffalo Bills

McCoy starring down 30 with uncertainty


LeSean McCoy, despite ending the year as the #7 fantasy running back in standard leagues was a slight disappointment for fantasy owners last year. McCoy played in all 16 regular season games, but only cracked 100 yards rushing 4 times, and averaged 4.0 yards per rush, which was 23rd in the NFL. That all happened with a formidable QB with a scrambling ability that defenses had to respect, presumably allowing McCoy some more room before tacklers ascended.
The Bills have the least sexy QB situation in the entire NFL in my opinion. With Tyrod Taylor at the helm for most of the season last year, the bills had the 31st passing offense. None of the QBs on the Bills roster are considered mobile and without a wide receiver on their roster worthy of drafting in any fantasy formats, defenses can stack the box against McCoy. McCoy will be overused, underperform and probably get hurt because of it. McCoy’s ADP is in the second round, but wouldn’t touch him until the fourth or beginning of the fifth round.


06/29/18, 12:42 PM CDT by C-wags

Source: pyromaniac.com


Tyreek Hill

Kansas City Chiefs

Hill lookin' busty with chiefs new look.


Tyreek Hill had a great 2017, amounting 75 receptions for 1183 yards and 7 touchdowns in 15 games. He’s currently being drafted in the middle of the third round in standard leagues, which would appear to be a great value. However, with promoted RB coach Eric Bieniemy presumably in-line to be the primary play caller, a new QB, Travis Kelce receiving the #1 target share and the addition of Sammy Watkins, I expect Hill’s numbers to decrease dramatically.
I believe Hill to be more of a boom or bust player this year. There’s no denying his break-away speed and ability to separate from defenders, and with Mahomes cannon of an arm, I expect them to connect deep on occasion. However, I believe Sammy Watkins to be the more complete receiver and likely to take more of the target share from Hill. Bundled with the change in offensive strategy toward the end of last year to run the ball more, the change to a young QB presumably resulting in a more conservative game plan, I see a major decline in the amount of touches Hill will get and see him as more of a 5-6 round flex play guy.


06/21/18, 10:54 AM CDT by C-wags

Source: pyromaniac.com


Eric Ebron

Detroit Lions

Ebron Could Use Some Luck


Colts signed TE Eric Ebron, formerly of the Lions, to a two-year contract. Coach Frank Reich called Ebron an "elite tight end."

The last time we saw Andrew Luck healthy (2016), the Colts used 2+ TE sets at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL and had the 6th-highest target share to TEs.


04/01/18, 11:32 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Carlos Hyde

San Francisco 49ers

Hyde and Seek


Browns agreed to terms with RB Carlos Hyde, formerly of the 49ers, on a three-year, $15 million contract.

Obtaining Hyde has several trickle-down effects; first it replaces Crowell who signed with the Jets, it probably diminishes Duke Johnson’s value a bit. Hyde is a better all-around back than Crowell was and will certainly take over the goal-line work seeing that he’s got 20+ pounds on Duke. It also reduces the likelihood that Cleveland takes Saquon Barkley with the 4th pick in the draft. They will most likely look to draft a defensive player (Chubb) or trade down again.


04/01/18, 11:28 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jerick McKinnon

Minnesota Vikings

McKinnon Goes West For Gold-Rush


49ers agreed to terms with RB Jerick McKinnon, formerly of the Vikings, on a four-year, $30 million contract.

McKinnon averaged a ho-hum 3.8 yards a carry for the Vikings and scored three rushing touchdowns. By contrast, San Francisco's former lead runner, Carlos Hyde, averaged 3.9 yards an attempt in 2017 and had eight rushing touchdowns.

It appears as though Shanahan is enamored with McKinnon's athletic metrics, but I'm not so sure he was "pounding the table" to get him. This move could push the Niner's to cut Joe Williams.


04/01/18, 11:12 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.sacbee.com


Mike Wallace

Baltimore Ravens

Eagles Keep Improving


Eagles signed WR Mike Wallace to a one-year contract.
Mike Wallace can still move posting a top five max speed among wide receivers last season. He will fill the void left by Torrey Smith as a speed vertical threat.


04/01/18, 11:08 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Terrelle Pryor

Washington Redskins

Jets Searching For Weapons


Jets agreed to terms with WR Terrelle Pryor, formerly of Washington and Cleveland.

Second year in a row on a new team doesn’t really help Pryor's cause, but I like the idea of him on the field with Teddy Bridgewater at some point. I would imagine, with some creativity, the Jets could really design some innovative gadget plays.
The Jets receiving corps really looks like a bunch of question marks at this point though, no telling what the week-to-week outcome will be with these guys.
Jermaine Kearse: 65 catches, 810 yards, 5 touchdowns (2017)
Robby Anderson: 63 catches, 941 yards, 7 touchdowns (2017)
Quincy Enunwa: 58 catches, 857 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)
Terrelle Pryor: 77 catches, 1007 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)


04/01/18, 11:04 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Carlos Henderson

Denver Broncos

Sleeper Watch


Broncos coach Vance Joseph said the team is "counting on" Carlos Henderson making an impact in 2018.

If you are paying attention to Staggs projections there is plenty of opportunity for Henderson to step into a solid number of targets in the slot. Henderson was hindered by injury and awful QB play last year. Being drafted in the 18th round or later in best-ball leagues, Henderson is the late round flyer that should be on your radar.


04/01/18, 11:00 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.denverpost.com


Ben Watson

Baltimore Ravens

Watson Returns To Big Easy


Saints signed TE Ben Watson, formerly of the Ravens, to a one-year contract.

Watson had 74 catches on 110 targets for 825 yards and 6 TD’s when he was with the Saints in 2015. After missing 2016 he had a pretty good year with Baltimore last year despite an anemic offense, with 61 catches on 79 targets for 522 yards and 4 TD’s. He’s not a bad late round flyer TE. He’s basically free right now, but I expect by the time the season starts he’ll be being drafted within the top 20 at the position.


04/01/18, 10:54 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Off The Top Of Our Heads - 2016 After Week 1

Off The Top Of Our Heads - 2016 After Week 1

Posted by d-Rx on 09/18/16

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


More Articals

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Very sorry for not getting this piece up on the site earlier in the week, that is all on my. This weekly piece will come out on Monday or Tuesday moving forward. //d-Rx



STiFFKiTTiES's 2016 Pokemon Go Fantasy Squad


 

 

 

 

Stagg Party's Thoughts

 


 

Target Pass Catching Running Backs against Indianapolis

This is especially true in regards to an offense that can spread out their defense. Indianapolis might have the worst linebacking corps in the league, and when asked to cover backs in space, they will inevitably struggle. Theo Riddick and Ameer Abdullah combined to catch all ten of their targets for 110 yards and two touchdowns. This was also without arguably their best defender in Vontae Davis, who has shown flashes of being able to take a team’s top receiver out of the game. The Colts will face a lot of good passing backs this season, so target them in DFS plays.

 

Who Dat?

The Saints wide receivers absolutely lit up the Oakland Raiders on Sunday. Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead will both probably finish as top five receivers, as of Sunday they were each top three options at the position. Michael Thomas also got into the action catching all six of his targets for 58 yards and a huge fumble recovery. This offense looks ready to funnel through the wide receivers, with their tight ends Coby Fleener and Josh Hill on the periphery. Travaris Cadet has also usurped CJ Spiller again, don’t even think about that dude. Mark Ingram was solid, and in different matchups should see a lot more touches. Cooks and Snead are both locked in as top-30 options on a weekly basis, while knowing exactly which one will go off will be the hard part.

 

Melvin Gordon and Danny Woodhead can shine together

In the words of Puffy or Puff Daddy or P. Diddy or whatever his name was and Biggie “Yo, the sun don't shine forever, But as long as it's here then we might as well shine together.” That was full on display Sunday as both running backs looks poised to finish with top positional weeks. Melvin Gordon got a lot of run out of the I-formation in which he was very comfortable, and able to find the endzone twice on just 14 touches after failing to find the endzone on 207 touches last year. We all know what Danny Woodhead did last season, and he kept it up in Week 1. Let’s remember this is a Ken Whisenhunt offense, and it will funnel through these running backs. In 2013, as the offensive coordinator of a similar San Diego squad, Ryan Mathews finished as RB12, and Danny Woodhead finished as RB19. Expect the offense to funnel through these guys with Philip Rivers seeing a frop in attempts similar to his 2013 numbers, especially with Keenan Allen likely out for the season. Get healthy soon buddy.

 

The Seahawks offensive line is awful

No description here, the title says it all.

 

Blocked kicks

I haven’t looked up the stats yet, but I feel like this weekend had the most blocked kicks I have ever seen. Not to mention a ton of extra point and field goal shanks. It was a crazy day for special teams and the field goal kick front lines let a lot of guys through in Week 1.

 

Texans

Brock Osweiler looked pretty good for this offense, but if there was some question about Lamar Miller’s workload and getting all of it there isn’t anymore. Miller got 28 carries, surpassing his previous career high of 22 rush attempts. This isn’t even to talk about the work he got in the passing game. Lamar is gonna eat. DeAndre Hopkins had a solid start to the season, Will Fuller had a coming out party despite a hammy, and Braxton Miller showed an ability to create separation. Things are looking up for the Texans on offense. 




PK Ripper's Thoughts


 

ESPN Fantasy Football App was the Supreme disappointment in week 1 to say the least if you were like me and have leagues on ESPN you weren't able to check your scores in the first set of games and hopefully you set your roster as if you didn't need to make any adjustments when the 4 o'clock game started. Way to go ESPN give me another reason to move all my leagues away from you next season.

 

 

BlackJack Del Rio Doubling down on the two point conversion at the end of a wild game in New Orleans.

After Seth Roberts catches the touchdown to put Oakland down by one with a chance to tie with the extra point and send the game into overtime coach Del Rio makes the ballsiest call in the early part of the season by electing to go for two and essentially the win. Derek Carr throws the ball to Crabtree who makes a wonderful catch over a rookie defensive back and seals the victory.

Surely if that play have ended up going south Del Rio would have busted out and it would have been a media massacre on Monday.

 

 

 

Sunday night special Jimmy Gee does the unexpected and leads the Patriots to a victory over the Cardinals in what must be the biggest upset of opening weekend no Gronk no Tom Brady no half the offensive line, no problem as Jimmy Garoppolo showed he is more than adequate at the quarterback position and Bill Belichick proves that he can outcoach anyone no matter who you have on your side of the ball.

 

 

O' Doyle rules! 

A tight end for the Colts catches two touchdowns it's not Dwyane Allen and Coby Fleener has been exiled to New Orleans it's none other than Jack Doyle from out of nowhere RKO style who gets Andrews Luck this Sunday

 

 

 

Geat games all around other than three games this weekend all the NFL games final score were within a touchdown or less that's great for the league as it creates excitement to start the 2016 season.




PyroLytics Thoughts

 

Don’t look too far into box scores:

Box score scouting is probably the worst thing in fantasy football. For example, if you take a look at the Dolphins box score you’d see that Kenny Stills had a rather down day with 1 catch for 16 yards on 5 targets. What the box score doesn’t tell you is that Stills dropped what would have been an 80-yard bomb to pay dirt.  I still expect big things from Kenny down the line with Parker still nursing the two hamstrings and the future should be brighter, slated to play New England next week and then followed by Cleveland.

 

The Cowboys time of possession battle:

The cowboys dominated the time of possession battle against the Giants on the Sunday. Controlling the ball for just over 36 minutes of the game. What’s even crazier is Dak threw the ball 45 times for 227 yards in that game and didn’t throw a single touchdown. I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt though. Beasley dropped what should have been a touchdown on the opening drive of the game. The Cowboys o-line couldn’t get any push for the running game thanks to the revamped front 7 of the Giants. The Giants front 7 looked fairly serviceable. We should probably keep an eye on the giants in the next couple weeks.

 

David Johnson is the work horse:

The Cardinals definitely believe in the talent they have in David Johnson. He amassed an amazing 95% snap share and an 87% touch share against the Patriots last night. David Johnson is a high end top 5 running back going forward without any questions.

 

Tyrell Williams is the handcuff to Keenan Allen:

This reminds me exactly of last year. Everyone was hoping on the Malcolm Floyd bandwagon when Allen went down but the right move was to go for Stevie Johnson. I’m here to tell you Travis Benjamin is not the guy you want to own in San Diego. It’s Tyrell Williams.

 

Melvin Gordon usage a little concerning:

There was nothing more exciting than to see Gordon fall into the end zone twice this past Sunday but wow, he only played 23 snaps out of the possible 73 snaps. It’s hard to find a reasoning why Woodhead played in 50 snaps. Although most of Woodhead’s production came after the Keenan Allen injury, it is still fairly concerning that Gordon was literally left to dry to on the sideline after proving his worth for being on the field.

 

Detroit toss-up:

We’ve heard it all offseason, the Lions receiving core is going to be a 1A and 1B situation and nobody knew who the 1A was going to be.  Back in late August Marvin Jones was turning into the biggest ADP value in the later rounds and this past Sunday showed why everyone was so high on Jones. Tate still converted all 7 of his targets for receptions while Jones only converted 4 of his 10 targets into receptions. Expect a similar target share going forward. Both are strong weekly plays with Stafford under center.

 


 

PyromaniacMo's Thoughts

 

CJ Anderson
May folks were divided on CJ Anderson leading up to the draft.  I told myself I loved him, but something deep down inside was wary. After all, the pangs of 2015 were deep. But, after watching the Thursday night opener, most fears have been laid to rest; CJ threw down as he put up 139 combined yards, 4 catches, and a pair of TDs. Now, if that was not enough for some of you nay-sayers, the play of the rookie 6th rounder, full-back Andy Janovich, should be enough to ease your worried minds.

 

Anderson looks healthy, and that is huge. Before the season opener last Thursday, the man played in 35 career games. In 9 of those contests, his ankle landed him on the injury report, but he managed to soldier through anyway. In those injury plagued starts, CJ averaged just 3.6 yards per carry. In the other 26 games in which he was healthy, he rushed for 5.3 yards per carry. I can hear Christopher Harris’s voice now, pointing out the obvious flaws in yards per carry; there are too many factors built into that statistic for it to be used as heavily as it is to prove running back worth. But, in this situation, you are not just comparing apples to apples. You are literally using the same piece of fruit.

 

It seems obvious now, last year, his woes, were a direct result from injury. When healthy, which he appears to be now, he is a force to be reckoned with. Plus, this team philosophy is certainly advantageous for the former California back. Denver is going to run and play defense. I think CJ, and his owners, are now fully on board with that. 

 


#FF Table

So, the saying is basically this: Fantasy Football is like a four-legged table; you have the draft; you set your weekly line-ups; grab players off the waiver wire; hopefully, you engage in the art of trading. But still, we put an enormous amount of energy and focus into the draft. I build tiers, I believe in them. They are the golden rules that guide you through you drafting epic. Woe to you that stray from the prescribed rankings laid down by your tiers on draft evening. As Gandolph said: “Stay on the path!”

 

Well… I might have wandered off course a touch. Why dwell on this? Every season, I try to look over the draft. There are always things to learn in life from situations if looked at in the right way, from the proper perspective. So, why am I engaging in this public display of metacognition? I th as well.ink this is how we grow as humans. I think self examination is how we grow as fantasy players.

 

So, back to the draft in question. I was stacked at WR. My first RB was Jeremy Hill. Obviously he is not known for being a pass catcher. This was a PPR draft, so I was conscientious of this fact a bit perhaps too aware. Needing another RB at this point, I glanced to my tiers to find the next highest two. One was actually in the next tier down, but those were the two highest on my sheet.  



Error or blessing in disguise?

Well, I strayed. I went with the man ranked lower. Why you ask? I folded to the news cycle, the recent headlines surrounding one of the players listed (I don’t think the point is to debate which player is actually better, thus no names. The point is to examine process). Mainly, this decision was based on recent, preseason, camp news. After all, when you are at the Blackjack table, you always hit on 16 if the dealer is showing 10. You never just go with your gut because of a sudden urge. Do not waiver. The fantasy winds may change, but stick to your guns.  The decision I made was rash, and done in the spur of the moment. It was based solely on a handful of headline tidbits that were ringing in my ears as of late. We have a tendency to over react. After all, think of how many league mates are hitting the waiver wire hard the first week. I know not to get overly excited about a one week performance, and yet I let the recent news cycle, the totality of which was perhaps two weeks, outweigh months of meticulous meditation and careful calculation.


Was this an error? Or perhaps, was this a blessing in disguise? As is with many instances that occur in the degenerative game we all know and love, only time will tell. However, the lesson to take away is this: Over reaction in fantasy football can rear its ugly head in a variety of fashions. We drop a guy too quickly only to pick up a guy after too small a sample size after hearing just one or two blurbs, or even scanning a strongly worded tweet. As is with most things in life, it is all about the balance. But over reaction can be venomous in fantasy. A good captain has a steady hand. So dear friends, guide your ships through the treacherous fantasy waters with care least not you fall prey to a sudden siren song, and find yourself crashing on the rocks, ruined on the fantasy shores as other teams sail past you to glory. All hands on deck people!

 

 

 

Itchy's Thoughts

 

YPC:

Adrian Peterson’s career YPC… 4.9. Jerick McKinnon’s? 4.9. McKinnon does have the advantage of coming in on a lot of 3rd and longs, so he gets those cheap yards from time to time, but still. I’m not saying you MUST draft McKinnon if you draft AD, but he’s cheap and ridiculously athletic. Never a bad idea to insure against a running back on the wrong side of 30, even if he’s a freak of nature like Paterson.


Speaking of YPC, Jamaal Charles is unsurprisingly the current career leader at 5.47 YPA. The next two active leaders before you get to AD and McKinnon? Darren Sproles and Justin Forsett with 4.97 and 4.91 respectively. Sproles I get for the situations, but Forsett?!

 


ADP Value:

Current active career leader in catch rate (min 200 targets)? Randall Cobb at 69.9%. He was miscast last season as the WR1, but this year he’s going to reward owners that take him at his current ADP.


The Seattle Seahawks had 3 of the top 13 receivers in yards per target in 2015 with Baldwin, Kearse, and Lockett. I know Seattle isn’t going to turn into the Saints anytime soon, but I can’t help but get excited about the potential of that passing game.

 

 

Lucky?

Player One in seven games with his starting QB in 2015:

Total: 69 targets, 32 receptions, 46.4% catch rate, 77.3 yards per game, 2 TD, 104.1 PPR points, 14.9 PPR PPG, 1.5 PPR points per target


Player Two in seven games with his starting QB in 2015:  

Total: 52 targets, 32 receptions, 61.5% catch rate, 51 yards per game, 4 TD, 97.1 PPR points, 13.9 PPR PPG, 1.87  PPR points per target


Player One is TY, player two is Moncrief. It’s already looking like Moncrief will be a significant factor in 2016 as expected. 

 

 

 

 

 

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