Week 11
November 19, 2017
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Leonard Fournette

Jacksonville Jaguars

Rookie Wall?


Fournette came off of essentially 20 days of resting and rehabbing the injured ankle suffered in the fourth quarter of Jacksonville’s October 15th loss to the Rams, when he suited up last week against the L.A. Chargers. Last week, he carried 17 times for 33 yards. According to Florida Football Insiders, Leonard Fournette's ankle is "still not right," and he could be limited if he plays this week against the Browns.

I’ve heard a few people recognize that Cleveland’s run defense has been underrated this year. They started out pretty strong, but they have been fading lately, especially when it comes to the pass-catching backs over the past five games. Yeldon or Ivory could be that sneaky flex you’re looking for.


11/18/17, 11:12 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.floridafootballinsiders.com

Jacksonville Jaguars

Ground and Pound


According to Forecast.io, it's expected to be 39° F and with a 18% chance of snow and 20 MPH wind in Cleveland at 1:00 PM ET.

This is something to watch Sunday morning, especially if you were high on the Jacksonville passing game facing Cleveland this weekend. The snow doesn’t matter, but the wind could eliminate any deep balls. If you’re looking for a Dede or K. Cole explosion, like I have been, I think we’re going to have to wait at least one more week. Marquis Lee should be fine, he’ll still get his targets. The running game should benefit, but Fournette is questionable with an ankle.


11/18/17, 11:02 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotowire.com


Jay Ajayi

Philadelphia Eagles

Ajayi Slated for More Work in Week 11


Coaches have come out and said there is a concentrated effort to increase Ajayi's workload.

Fantasy Goo: Certainly Corey Clement impressed in their last game, Week 9 against Denver. However, he won't sustain the pace of 3TDs on just 13 touches. I do like both players in GPP, I would certainly save Clement for the larger tournaments where you take on more risk in order to differentiate yourself from the field. Still, Ajayi has had a bye week and a game to get familiar with his new digs. Each game from now on, should highlight his comfort and growth in the system.


11/18/17, 03:02 PM CST by PyromaniacMo

Source: www.philly.com


Devonta Freeman

Atlanta Falcons

Coleman to Increase Workload Sans Freeman


Devonta Freeman is in concussion protocol. That leaves Tevin 'Betchya Bottom Dollar" Coleman to pick up extra duties.

Fantasy Goo: Freeman was taken out very early on in last week's game. Because of this, Coleman seized the reins with command. He finished as Draft Kings 10th best RB of the week. Their Week 11 matchup with the Seahawks could easily turn into a high schoring affair as Seattle is without starters Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor, and Jarran Reed. What Seattle puts on the field will not resemble what we are accustomed to. Coleman should seize thee opportunity.


11/18/17, 02:33 PM CST by PyromaniacMo

Source: www.fftoday.com


Tevin Coleman

Atlanta Falcons

Coleman to Increase Workload Sans Freeman


Devonta Freeman is in concussion protocol. That leaves Tevin 'Betchya Bottom Dollar" Coleman to pick up extra duties.

Fantasy Goo: Freeman was taken out very early on in last week's game. Because of this, Coleman seized the reins with command. He finished as Draft Kings 10th best RB of the week. Their Week 11 matchup with the Seahawks could easily turn into a high schoring affair as Seattle is without starters Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor, and Jarran Reed. What Seattle puts on the field will not resemble what we are accustomed to. Coleman should seize thee opportunity.


11/18/17, 02:33 PM CST by PyromaniacMo

Source: www.fftoday.com

Buffalo Bills

Bills Getting Gashed


In the last 3 weeks, the Buffalo Bills have given up 8 TDS. There is not a team in the league that has given up more than 8 rushing TDS ALL SEASON!

Fantasy Goo: There is trepidation about Gordon this week. Ekeler made a bit of a name for himself last week as Gordon owners experienced fits or rage and madness last week. I still like Gordon even in cash this week. Still whichever back you prefer, they should have a field day.


11/18/17, 12:55 PM CST by PyromaniacMo

Source: www.fftoday.com


Jamaal Williams

Green Bay Packers

Next Man Up


As expected, Ty Montgomery officially ruled OUT for Sunday against the Ravens. Jamaal Williams should start at running back.

Williams is not Montgomery or Jones, I would not recommend starting him if you can prevent it. It will probably take a positive game script for him to be heavily use, don’t be surprised if we see Cobb being used in the backfield, especially in third-and-long situations.


11/17/17, 09:32 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alshon Jeffery

Philadelphia Eagles

Open Door for Agholor


Eagles coach Doug Pederson says that Alshon Jeffery's ankle injury has been lingering for a while, but he is "optimistic" he'll play against the Cowboys Sunday night. He will be listed as questionable.

I’m looking at Nelson Agholor having a nice opportunity to put up some points with Dallas being the 24th ranked defense against opposing WR’s. Ertz coming off of the injury report is an obvious play, he’s a must start whenever he’s on the field.

It seems as though Jeffery plays through injuries every year, but he’s not very effective when he does. His injuries tend to linger and former performance enhancer users tend to get hurt more often.


11/17/17, 09:28 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Kareem Hunt

Kansas City Chiefs

KC Ready to Run


The KC/NYG game could experience heavy winds, and certainly, a blowout of the Giants is a likely outcome as well. If either, or both of these potential situations play out, it could be good things for the KC ground game.

Fantasy Goo: The Giants have surrendered 3 rushing TD in their last 2 games. On the season, they have given up the 5th most yards to opposing backs. Hunt is a great cash game play, and in GPPs, I will toss out a few line-ups with West, maybe 5%. If indeed it is a blowout, the Chiefs, led by Reid who is 16-2 off a bye, could look to lighten the load for their workhorse RB and let Charcandrick bat cleanup.


11/17/17, 07:04 PM CST by PyromaniacMo

Source: www.cbssports.com


Charcandrick West

Kansas City Chiefs

KC Ready to Run


The KC/NYG game could experience heavy winds, and certainly, a blowout of the Giants is a likely outcome as well. If either, or both of these potential situations play out, it could be good things for the KC ground game.

Fantasy Goo: The Giants have surrendered 3 rushing TD in their last 2 games. On the season, they have given up the 5th most yards to opposing backs. Hunt is a great cash game play, and in GPPs, I will toss out a few line-ups with West, maybe 5%. If indeed it is a blowout, the Chiefs, led by Reid who is 16-2 off a bye, could look to lighten the load for their workhorse RB and let Charcandrick bat cleanup.


11/17/17, 07:04 PM CST by PyromaniacMo

Source: www.cbssports.com


Sterling Shepard

New York Giants

Sterling Shepard's Time to Shine


The Giants are going to need to put the ball in the air against KC. Keep an eye on the winds in this one. If it is north of 15mph, I will lessen my DFS shares.

Fantasy Goo: If the winds are not bad, Shep could get some looks as he should dominate KC's Steven Nelson. There are 84 starting cornerbacks in the NFL for Week #11. Nelson comes in at #80 according to PFF


11/17/17, 06:55 PM CST by PyromaniacMo

Source: www.nflweather.com


Tom Brady

New England Patriots

Brady a Top Bet for DFS Cash Games


The Patriots stayed in mile-high country last week in order to get acclimated to higher altitudes. The Raiders remained at sea level. This week they square off in Mexico City, which is much higher than one mile up. The difference could be seen in the 2nd half where the Raiders could run out of gas.

Fantasy Goo: Regardless of the elevation narrative, this game opened as the only 50 pointer this coming week. Football Outsiders ranks Oakland dead last for defensive DVOA, weighted defense, and overall pass ranking. Plus, Tom Brady is a great stack with Gronk against Oakland who is notoriously bad versus tight ends. Finally, New England will likely be missing Hogan, the recipient of 11 red zone targets this season. Gronk could easily be the beneficiary, as he has 13 himself.


11/17/17, 06:38 PM CST by PyromaniacMo

Source: www.footballoutsiders.com


Rob Gronkowski

New England Patriots

Brady a Top Bet for DFS Cash Games


The Patriots stayed in mile-high country last week in order to get acclimated to higher altitudes. The Raiders remained at sea level. This week they square off in Mexico City, which is much higher than one mile up. The difference could be seen in the 2nd half where the Raiders could run out of gas.

Fantasy Goo: Regardless of the elevation narrative, this game opened as the only 50 pointer this coming week. Football Outsiders ranks Oakland dead last for defensive DVOA, weighted defense, and overall pass ranking. Plus, Tom Brady is a great stack with Gronk against Oakland who is notoriously bad versus tight ends. Finally, New England will likely be missing Hogan, the recipient of 11 red zone targets this season. Gronk could easily be the beneficiary, as he has 13 himself.


11/17/17, 06:38 PM CST by PyromaniacMo

Source: www.footballoutsiders.com


Chris Hogan

New England Patriots

Brady a Top Bet for DFS Cash Games


The Patriots stayed in mile-high country last week in order to get acclimated to higher altitudes. The Raiders remained at sea level. This week they square off in Mexico City, which is much higher than one mile up. The difference could be seen in the 2nd half where the Raiders could run out of gas.

Fantasy Goo: Regardless of the elevation narrative, this game opened as the only 50 pointer this coming week. Football Outsiders ranks Oakland dead last for defensive DVOA, weighted defense, and overall pass ranking. Plus, Tom Brady is a great stack with Gronk against Oakland who is notoriously bad versus tight ends. Finally, New England will likely be missing Hogan, the recipient of 11 red zone targets this season. Gronk could easily be the beneficiary, as he has 13 himself.


11/17/17, 06:38 PM CST by PyromaniacMo

Source: www.footballoutsiders.com


Mike Evans

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

FanDuel Triple Play - Pass Go Collect 2TDS


This Sunday is "National Play Monopoly day." What does that mean for FD? Absolutely nothing, but I'm taking a "chance" and grabbing these 3 players that have a bit higher price tag because that's how I won at Monopoly.

Mike Evans @MIA - $7,800 - Much like AJ Green last week, I am banking on Evans to deliver his game of redemption and bounce back in a BIG way. Ryan Fitzpatrick will only have eyes for the 6'5 Evans as he once did for Brandon Marshall in NY. Evans will coast down A1A for 2TDS!

Travis Kelce @NYG - $7,500 - Kelce has 3TDs in the last 3 games. The Giants are giving up a TD every game to opposing TEs this season. That's crazy! Momma ain't raise no fool. 1+1= 2TDs!

Melvin Gordon vsBUF - $7,800 - The Bills gave up 50FPTS at home to the Saints dynamic duo of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara just last week, and now have to fly to LA. Gordon will stampede all over the Buffalo Bills. 2TDs in da house!


11/16/17, 12:43 AM CST by Pete Z

Source: www.pyromaniac.com


Travis Kelce

Kansas City Chiefs

FanDuel Triple Play - Pass Go Collect 2TDS


This Sunday is "National Play Monopoly day." What does that mean for FD? Absolutely nothing, but I'm taking a "chance" and grabbing these 3 players that have a bit higher price tag because that's how I won at Monopoly.

Mike Evans @MIA - $7,800 - Much like AJ Green last week, I am banking on Evans to deliver his game of redemption and bounce back in a BIG way. Ryan Fitzpatrick will only have eyes for the 6'5 Evans as he once did for Brandon Marshall in NY. Evans will coast down A1A for 2TDS!

Travis Kelce @NYG - $7,500 - Kelce has 3TDs in the last 3 games. The Giants are giving up a TD every game to opposing TEs this season. That's crazy! Momma ain't raise no fool. 1+1= 2TDs!

Melvin Gordon vsBUF - $7,800 - The Bills gave up 50FPTS at home to the Saints dynamic duo of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara just last week, and now have to fly to LA. Gordon will stampede all over the Buffalo Bills. 2TDs in da house!


11/16/17, 12:42 AM CST by Pete Z

Source: www.pyromaniac.com


Melvin Gordon

Los Angeles Chargers

FanDuel Triple Play - Pass Go Collect 2TDS


This Sunday is "National Play Monopoly day." What does that mean for FD? Absolutely nothing, but I'm taking a "chance" and grabbing these 3 players that have a bit higher price tag because that's how I won at Monopoly.

Mike Evans @MIA - $7,800 - Much like AJ Green last week, I am banking on Evans to deliver his game of redemption and bounce back in a BIG way. Ryan Fitzpatrick will only have eyes for the 6'5 Evans as he once did for Brandon Marshall in NY. Evans will coast down A1A for 2TDS!

Travis Kelce @NYG - $7,500 - Kelce has 3TDs in the last 3 games. The Giants are giving up a TD every game to opposing TEs this season. That's crazy! Momma ain't raise no fool. 1+1= 2TDs!

Melvin Gordon vsBUF - $7,800 - The Bills gave up 50FPTS at home to the Saints dynamic duo of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara just last week, and now have to fly to LA. Gordon will stampede all over the Buffalo Bills. 2TDs in da house!


11/15/17, 11:23 PM CST by Pete Z

Source: www.pyromaniac.com


Latavius Murray

Minnesota Vikings

Waiver Wire Pickup Target for Week 11


LATAVIUS MURRAY – RB – VIKINGS – AVAILABLE IN 34% OF CBS LEAGUES

He is still getting a lot of touches, and this week had 17 carries for 68 yards with a touchdown. Getting the redzone carries makes him a worthy add in deeper leagues.


11/14/17, 07:43 PM CST by Houdini

Source: www.pyromaniac.com


Garrett Celek

San Francisco 49ers

Waiver Wire Pickup Target for Week 11


GARRETT CELEK – TE – 49ERS – AVAILABLE IN 95% OF CBS LEAGUES

With George Kittle out of the game, Celek had four catches for 67 yards with a 47-yard touchdown. He is viable as long as Kittle is out.


11/14/17, 07:43 PM CST by Houdini

Source: www.pyromaniac.com


Jamison Crowder

Washington Redskins

Waiver Wire Pickup Target for Week 11


JAMISON CROWDER – WR – REDSKINS – AVAILABLE IN 61% OF CBS LEAGUES

Crowder came back to action and had four receptions for 76 yards and one run for five yards. He is finally starting to make an impact when healthy.


11/14/17, 07:41 PM CST by Houdini

Source: www.pyromaniac.com


Matt Breida

San Francisco 49ers

Waiver Wire Pickup Target for Week 11


MATT BREIDA – RB – 49ERS – AVAILABLE IN 95% OF CBS LEAUGES

Breida had himself a nice game this week, carrying the ball nine times for 55 yards with a touchdown and had one catch for three yards. The 49ers are looking to the future, and Breida will get more looks going forward.


11/14/17, 07:41 PM CST by Houdini

Source: www.pyromaniac.com


Case Keenum

Minnesota Vikings

Waiver Wire Pickup Target for Week 11


CASE KEENUM – QB – VIKINGS – AVAILABLE IN 73% OF CBS LEAGUES

Looking for a quarterback? Well, how about Keenum? He has the job and the weapons and is doing well. This week he completed 21 of 29 passes for 304 yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions. This is a first place team and they need him the rest of the way.


11/14/17, 07:39 PM CST by Houdini

Source: www.pyromaniac.com


Corey Davis

Tennessee Titans

Waiver Wire Pickup Target for Week 11


COREY DAVIS – WR – TITANS – AVAILABLE IN 42% OF CBS LEAGUES

Davis had four receptions for 48 yards, so not what we are expecting, but there is light for the future. He is starting to see more targets, and is the future of what the Titans want to be. He will see more looks going forward.


11/14/17, 07:38 PM CST by Houdini

Source: www.pyromaniac.com


Marqise Lee

Jacksonville Jaguars

Waiver Wire Pickup Target for Week 11


MARQISE LEE – WR – JAGUARS – AVAILABLE IN 42% OF CBS LEAGUES

He is on this list every week, and he came through again with six catches for 55 yards and a score. He is the best option in the Jaguars passing game.


11/14/17, 07:38 PM CST by Houdini

Source: www.pyromaniac.com

Off The Top Of Our Heads - 2016 After Week 1

Off The Top Of Our Heads - 2016 After Week 1

Posted by d-Rx on 09/18/16

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


More Articals

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Very sorry for not getting this piece up on the site earlier in the week, that is all on my. This weekly piece will come out on Monday or Tuesday moving forward. //d-Rx



STiFFKiTTiES's 2016 Pokemon Go Fantasy Squad


 

 

 

 

Stagg Party's Thoughts

 


 

Target Pass Catching Running Backs against Indianapolis

This is especially true in regards to an offense that can spread out their defense. Indianapolis might have the worst linebacking corps in the league, and when asked to cover backs in space, they will inevitably struggle. Theo Riddick and Ameer Abdullah combined to catch all ten of their targets for 110 yards and two touchdowns. This was also without arguably their best defender in Vontae Davis, who has shown flashes of being able to take a team’s top receiver out of the game. The Colts will face a lot of good passing backs this season, so target them in DFS plays.

 

Who Dat?

The Saints wide receivers absolutely lit up the Oakland Raiders on Sunday. Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead will both probably finish as top five receivers, as of Sunday they were each top three options at the position. Michael Thomas also got into the action catching all six of his targets for 58 yards and a huge fumble recovery. This offense looks ready to funnel through the wide receivers, with their tight ends Coby Fleener and Josh Hill on the periphery. Travaris Cadet has also usurped CJ Spiller again, don’t even think about that dude. Mark Ingram was solid, and in different matchups should see a lot more touches. Cooks and Snead are both locked in as top-30 options on a weekly basis, while knowing exactly which one will go off will be the hard part.

 

Melvin Gordon and Danny Woodhead can shine together

In the words of Puffy or Puff Daddy or P. Diddy or whatever his name was and Biggie “Yo, the sun don't shine forever, But as long as it's here then we might as well shine together.” That was full on display Sunday as both running backs looks poised to finish with top positional weeks. Melvin Gordon got a lot of run out of the I-formation in which he was very comfortable, and able to find the endzone twice on just 14 touches after failing to find the endzone on 207 touches last year. We all know what Danny Woodhead did last season, and he kept it up in Week 1. Let’s remember this is a Ken Whisenhunt offense, and it will funnel through these running backs. In 2013, as the offensive coordinator of a similar San Diego squad, Ryan Mathews finished as RB12, and Danny Woodhead finished as RB19. Expect the offense to funnel through these guys with Philip Rivers seeing a frop in attempts similar to his 2013 numbers, especially with Keenan Allen likely out for the season. Get healthy soon buddy.

 

The Seahawks offensive line is awful

No description here, the title says it all.

 

Blocked kicks

I haven’t looked up the stats yet, but I feel like this weekend had the most blocked kicks I have ever seen. Not to mention a ton of extra point and field goal shanks. It was a crazy day for special teams and the field goal kick front lines let a lot of guys through in Week 1.

 

Texans

Brock Osweiler looked pretty good for this offense, but if there was some question about Lamar Miller’s workload and getting all of it there isn’t anymore. Miller got 28 carries, surpassing his previous career high of 22 rush attempts. This isn’t even to talk about the work he got in the passing game. Lamar is gonna eat. DeAndre Hopkins had a solid start to the season, Will Fuller had a coming out party despite a hammy, and Braxton Miller showed an ability to create separation. Things are looking up for the Texans on offense. 




PK Ripper's Thoughts


 

ESPN Fantasy Football App was the Supreme disappointment in week 1 to say the least if you were like me and have leagues on ESPN you weren't able to check your scores in the first set of games and hopefully you set your roster as if you didn't need to make any adjustments when the 4 o'clock game started. Way to go ESPN give me another reason to move all my leagues away from you next season.

 

 

BlackJack Del Rio Doubling down on the two point conversion at the end of a wild game in New Orleans.

After Seth Roberts catches the touchdown to put Oakland down by one with a chance to tie with the extra point and send the game into overtime coach Del Rio makes the ballsiest call in the early part of the season by electing to go for two and essentially the win. Derek Carr throws the ball to Crabtree who makes a wonderful catch over a rookie defensive back and seals the victory.

Surely if that play have ended up going south Del Rio would have busted out and it would have been a media massacre on Monday.

 

 

 

Sunday night special Jimmy Gee does the unexpected and leads the Patriots to a victory over the Cardinals in what must be the biggest upset of opening weekend no Gronk no Tom Brady no half the offensive line, no problem as Jimmy Garoppolo showed he is more than adequate at the quarterback position and Bill Belichick proves that he can outcoach anyone no matter who you have on your side of the ball.

 

 

O' Doyle rules! 

A tight end for the Colts catches two touchdowns it's not Dwyane Allen and Coby Fleener has been exiled to New Orleans it's none other than Jack Doyle from out of nowhere RKO style who gets Andrews Luck this Sunday

 

 

 

Geat games all around other than three games this weekend all the NFL games final score were within a touchdown or less that's great for the league as it creates excitement to start the 2016 season.




PyroLytics Thoughts

 

Don’t look too far into box scores:

Box score scouting is probably the worst thing in fantasy football. For example, if you take a look at the Dolphins box score you’d see that Kenny Stills had a rather down day with 1 catch for 16 yards on 5 targets. What the box score doesn’t tell you is that Stills dropped what would have been an 80-yard bomb to pay dirt.  I still expect big things from Kenny down the line with Parker still nursing the two hamstrings and the future should be brighter, slated to play New England next week and then followed by Cleveland.

 

The Cowboys time of possession battle:

The cowboys dominated the time of possession battle against the Giants on the Sunday. Controlling the ball for just over 36 minutes of the game. What’s even crazier is Dak threw the ball 45 times for 227 yards in that game and didn’t throw a single touchdown. I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt though. Beasley dropped what should have been a touchdown on the opening drive of the game. The Cowboys o-line couldn’t get any push for the running game thanks to the revamped front 7 of the Giants. The Giants front 7 looked fairly serviceable. We should probably keep an eye on the giants in the next couple weeks.

 

David Johnson is the work horse:

The Cardinals definitely believe in the talent they have in David Johnson. He amassed an amazing 95% snap share and an 87% touch share against the Patriots last night. David Johnson is a high end top 5 running back going forward without any questions.

 

Tyrell Williams is the handcuff to Keenan Allen:

This reminds me exactly of last year. Everyone was hoping on the Malcolm Floyd bandwagon when Allen went down but the right move was to go for Stevie Johnson. I’m here to tell you Travis Benjamin is not the guy you want to own in San Diego. It’s Tyrell Williams.

 

Melvin Gordon usage a little concerning:

There was nothing more exciting than to see Gordon fall into the end zone twice this past Sunday but wow, he only played 23 snaps out of the possible 73 snaps. It’s hard to find a reasoning why Woodhead played in 50 snaps. Although most of Woodhead’s production came after the Keenan Allen injury, it is still fairly concerning that Gordon was literally left to dry to on the sideline after proving his worth for being on the field.

 

Detroit toss-up:

We’ve heard it all offseason, the Lions receiving core is going to be a 1A and 1B situation and nobody knew who the 1A was going to be.  Back in late August Marvin Jones was turning into the biggest ADP value in the later rounds and this past Sunday showed why everyone was so high on Jones. Tate still converted all 7 of his targets for receptions while Jones only converted 4 of his 10 targets into receptions. Expect a similar target share going forward. Both are strong weekly plays with Stafford under center.

 


 

PyromaniacMo's Thoughts

 

CJ Anderson
May folks were divided on CJ Anderson leading up to the draft.  I told myself I loved him, but something deep down inside was wary. After all, the pangs of 2015 were deep. But, after watching the Thursday night opener, most fears have been laid to rest; CJ threw down as he put up 139 combined yards, 4 catches, and a pair of TDs. Now, if that was not enough for some of you nay-sayers, the play of the rookie 6th rounder, full-back Andy Janovich, should be enough to ease your worried minds.

 

Anderson looks healthy, and that is huge. Before the season opener last Thursday, the man played in 35 career games. In 9 of those contests, his ankle landed him on the injury report, but he managed to soldier through anyway. In those injury plagued starts, CJ averaged just 3.6 yards per carry. In the other 26 games in which he was healthy, he rushed for 5.3 yards per carry. I can hear Christopher Harris’s voice now, pointing out the obvious flaws in yards per carry; there are too many factors built into that statistic for it to be used as heavily as it is to prove running back worth. But, in this situation, you are not just comparing apples to apples. You are literally using the same piece of fruit.

 

It seems obvious now, last year, his woes, were a direct result from injury. When healthy, which he appears to be now, he is a force to be reckoned with. Plus, this team philosophy is certainly advantageous for the former California back. Denver is going to run and play defense. I think CJ, and his owners, are now fully on board with that. 

 


#FF Table

So, the saying is basically this: Fantasy Football is like a four-legged table; you have the draft; you set your weekly line-ups; grab players off the waiver wire; hopefully, you engage in the art of trading. But still, we put an enormous amount of energy and focus into the draft. I build tiers, I believe in them. They are the golden rules that guide you through you drafting epic. Woe to you that stray from the prescribed rankings laid down by your tiers on draft evening. As Gandolph said: “Stay on the path!”

 

Well… I might have wandered off course a touch. Why dwell on this? Every season, I try to look over the draft. There are always things to learn in life from situations if looked at in the right way, from the proper perspective. So, why am I engaging in this public display of metacognition? I th as well.ink this is how we grow as humans. I think self examination is how we grow as fantasy players.

 

So, back to the draft in question. I was stacked at WR. My first RB was Jeremy Hill. Obviously he is not known for being a pass catcher. This was a PPR draft, so I was conscientious of this fact a bit perhaps too aware. Needing another RB at this point, I glanced to my tiers to find the next highest two. One was actually in the next tier down, but those were the two highest on my sheet.  



Error or blessing in disguise?

Well, I strayed. I went with the man ranked lower. Why you ask? I folded to the news cycle, the recent headlines surrounding one of the players listed (I don’t think the point is to debate which player is actually better, thus no names. The point is to examine process). Mainly, this decision was based on recent, preseason, camp news. After all, when you are at the Blackjack table, you always hit on 16 if the dealer is showing 10. You never just go with your gut because of a sudden urge. Do not waiver. The fantasy winds may change, but stick to your guns.  The decision I made was rash, and done in the spur of the moment. It was based solely on a handful of headline tidbits that were ringing in my ears as of late. We have a tendency to over react. After all, think of how many league mates are hitting the waiver wire hard the first week. I know not to get overly excited about a one week performance, and yet I let the recent news cycle, the totality of which was perhaps two weeks, outweigh months of meticulous meditation and careful calculation.


Was this an error? Or perhaps, was this a blessing in disguise? As is with many instances that occur in the degenerative game we all know and love, only time will tell. However, the lesson to take away is this: Over reaction in fantasy football can rear its ugly head in a variety of fashions. We drop a guy too quickly only to pick up a guy after too small a sample size after hearing just one or two blurbs, or even scanning a strongly worded tweet. As is with most things in life, it is all about the balance. But over reaction can be venomous in fantasy. A good captain has a steady hand. So dear friends, guide your ships through the treacherous fantasy waters with care least not you fall prey to a sudden siren song, and find yourself crashing on the rocks, ruined on the fantasy shores as other teams sail past you to glory. All hands on deck people!

 

 

 

Itchy's Thoughts

 

YPC:

Adrian Peterson’s career YPC… 4.9. Jerick McKinnon’s? 4.9. McKinnon does have the advantage of coming in on a lot of 3rd and longs, so he gets those cheap yards from time to time, but still. I’m not saying you MUST draft McKinnon if you draft AD, but he’s cheap and ridiculously athletic. Never a bad idea to insure against a running back on the wrong side of 30, even if he’s a freak of nature like Paterson.


Speaking of YPC, Jamaal Charles is unsurprisingly the current career leader at 5.47 YPA. The next two active leaders before you get to AD and McKinnon? Darren Sproles and Justin Forsett with 4.97 and 4.91 respectively. Sproles I get for the situations, but Forsett?!

 


ADP Value:

Current active career leader in catch rate (min 200 targets)? Randall Cobb at 69.9%. He was miscast last season as the WR1, but this year he’s going to reward owners that take him at his current ADP.


The Seattle Seahawks had 3 of the top 13 receivers in yards per target in 2015 with Baldwin, Kearse, and Lockett. I know Seattle isn’t going to turn into the Saints anytime soon, but I can’t help but get excited about the potential of that passing game.

 

 

Lucky?

Player One in seven games with his starting QB in 2015:

Total: 69 targets, 32 receptions, 46.4% catch rate, 77.3 yards per game, 2 TD, 104.1 PPR points, 14.9 PPR PPG, 1.5 PPR points per target


Player Two in seven games with his starting QB in 2015:  

Total: 52 targets, 32 receptions, 61.5% catch rate, 51 yards per game, 4 TD, 97.1 PPR points, 13.9 PPR PPG, 1.87  PPR points per target


Player One is TY, player two is Moncrief. It’s already looking like Moncrief will be a significant factor in 2016 as expected. 

 

 

 

 

 

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