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Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs - Divisional Round - 2016 Playoffs

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs - Divisional Round - 2016 Playoffs

Posted by d-Rx on 01/13/17

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5): OVER/UNDER 44.5

Sunday, January 15, 2017 at 7:20 EST

 

Weekly Matchups - Divisional Playoffs Chiefs against RB1 & Steelers against RB1

 

The Chiefs are home underdogs in this one and understandably so. In their last four meetings at Arrowhead, Pit is 4-0 against the spread. When they faced off earlier this season at Three Rivers, the Steelers had their way with the visiting Chiefs, blowing them out 43 – 14. Smith could be a sneaky DFS play this time around however. He is the cheapest of all eight QBs on Fan Duel and comes in at second cheapest on Draft Kings. In their earlier matchup, he passed for 287 yards, his second most this season. He also threw two TDs and just one pick. Smith should have time in the pocket on Sunday as the Steelers have their two starting DE s with Questionable injury designations. In fact, Ricardo Mathews was unable to play last week and has yet to practice this week. The other, Stephon Tuitt, has been limited but made his return to the field last week following two games on the bench with injury. In the passing game, Tyreek Hill has been the man. He also has three return TDs this season, making him a nice stack with the KC defense and a sneaky way to double dip the fantasy points. Unfortunately, he will have a rough go as he will face the Steelers best corner, slot defender William Gay. Mr. happy only surrenders a fantasy point for every five routes run. PFF grades him as their 11th best corner in the entire NFL. Still, at this time of year, defenders are worn down, and even when freash, very few have the speed to keep up with Hill. Kelce is the other viable pass catching option, although expensive as far as TEs go. Personally, I would rather save money at undoubtedly the most volatile of all fantasy positions. The Steelers are middle of the road against TEs. If you are going to spend up for TE, Kelce is a nice option as he was a top 12 TE five out of the last seven weeks of the regular season. Still, for $1600 less, I will take the most targeted TE last week, Jared Cook. Finally, you have the ground game. Spencer Ware will likely have low ownership compared to the big names out there, but he could be a sneaky play.  Ware had 18 looks in their previous matchup and put up nearly 100 all-purpose yards. The Steelers are giving up the 4th most receiving yards to opposing RBs. The defense also surrendered 19 total TDs to opposing RBs through the air and on the ground. If KC wins, it will likely be with a ball control offense and thus keeping it away from Pittsburgh’s deadly weapons on the offensive side. When you play short-slate GPPs, you want to look for a game script that is within the likely range of outcomes. If indeed KC does this, and Vegas is telling us this could be the closest game of the week, than Ware will need to be heavily involved. It is not so much the player I am betting on as the game script. Finally, going off that same gamescript, the KC D could be a nice one to target as well. They are tied with the Patriots for best turnover differential (+16). They lead the NFL with three return TDs, all from Tyreek Hill. They are tied for the most INTs in the league as well. Out of all the remaining defenses on Draft Kings, they have the most double-digit fantasy days with eight.  KC could easily be the highest scoring defense of the weekend.

 

The Steelers are road favorites. Right on cue, Big Ben let us all know he is injured, but don’t worry sports fans, this gun slinger won’t miss a snap, that is just how committed that rough and tough SOB really is! Wow, what a soldier! Anyway, despite his amazing tolerance for pain, and his even bigger flair for the dramatic, Big Ben is not a road QB by any stretch of the imagination. He carries nearly a 117 QB rating at home. However, that plummets to a mere 78.4 on the road where he has 9 TDs to 8 INTs compared to a 20 to 5 ratio at home, despite playing two less games in Pitt. While I want my fair share of Steelers, its just not at the QB spot for the divisional round. Perhaps the chalkiest of all plays can indeed be found here, at the RB and WR spots. Both Bell and Brown are almost automatic cash plays, and I am going to do my best to get them in my GPP line-ups as well. Now, if you are playing more than say ten contests, then a sharp contrarian play would be to fade these guys, and get massive leverage off the field. KC does not employ a shadow corner. In most situations, Bell will see Terrance Mitchell, leaving the better Marcus Peters to man up on Sammie Coates. Peters plays the left side on 92% of snaps, so Brown could potentially run wild and they might just sacrifice Coates.  If I were to pick a Pitt WR to go with outside of Brown, I might opt for Cobi Hamilton who has a TD in his last two games. In Week 4, when these two teams last met, Bell racked up nearly 180 all-purpose yards. Bell is perhaps one of your two chalkiest RB plays this weekend. Finally, it looks like Ladarius Green will still be in the concussion protocol, he was held out of practice this Wednesday. That leaves Jesse James. However, when you adjust for schedule, KC is top five against the position. I am only on a few defenses this week, Pitt is not one of them as Arrowhead is just too tough of a place to play on the road. 

 

 

 

By: PyromaniacMo

 

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