Week 15
December 17, 2017
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Jay Ajayi

Philadelphia Eagles

QB Downgrade Equals RB Upgrade


Ajayi can do more than he has since the Eagles acquired him from the Dolphins on Halloween. And with quarterback Carson Wentz done for the season and Nick Foles tossed into the cauldron, the Eagles will likely need additional carries from the 24-year-old tailback if they are to stoke their chances of securing home field throughout the playoffs.

Fantasy Goo: Ajayi could shred the Giants if he gets the touches, but he hasn’t scored a TD since his 46-yarder against the Bronco’s in his first game with the Eagles. It’s not like the other Eagles backs have been producing TD’s either, Wentz had been that dominant. I have no doubt they will lean on the running game this week, I’m high on Ajayi.


12/16/17, 03:18 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.philly.com


Jermaine Gresham

Arizona Cardinals

Ricky Business


The AZ Cardinals have downgraded TE Jermaine Gresham (illness) to OUT for Sunday’s game against Washington.

Fantasy Goo: Seals-Jones is a desperate move if you’re in the semi-finals of your playoffs, he’s only a streaming option if you’ve been streaming all year. He’s had a couple of big games, but there’s no floor. He could end up with 10 targets or he could end up with none.


12/16/17, 03:15 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Giovani Bernard

Cincinnati Bengals

Flying Solo


Joe Mixon did not pass concussion protocol and will not play Sunday against the Vikings.

Fantasy Goo: Bernard will see a solid workload, but it’s going to take a big play for him to have any real fantasy value. Minnesota did give up that big play to Jonathan Stewart last week, but I don’t see that happening again.


12/16/17, 03:12 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Devonta Freeman

Atlanta Falcons

Bell-Cow Workload


Falcons running back Tevin Coleman, who’s in the NFL concussion protocol, was declared out of the Tampa Bay game on Saturday by coach Dan Quinn.

Fantasy Goo: Tampa has been solid against the run at home, but a complete sieve on the road. They are at home this week, but they haven’t faced a RB like Freeman at home this year. Freeman has traditionally been a better performer at home, but I have no doubt he’ll put up RB1 numbers with action in the passing game.


12/16/17, 03:10 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.myajc.com


Dion Sims

Chicago Bears

Honorable Mention


Bears TE Adam Shaheen (chest), who is listed as questionable against the Lions, is not expected to play, source said. Chicago goes in a little short-handed.

Fantasy Goo: I like Sims as a streamer if you’re desperate, he always seems to put up numbers when he’s the only option. I rarely start a streamer in the early set of games, there will be safer options tomorrow.


12/16/17, 03:06 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Stefon Diggs

Minnesota Vikings

Diggin' It and Thielen It


The Vikings have played five out of their last six games on the road. They return home this week to face a banged-up Bengals defense and Kyle Rudolph is out. Stefon Diggs has played in four home games this year. He has hit 27.7 and 40.3 on DK in two of them.

Fantasy Goo: Diggs has never played a game without Rudolph in the line-up, so we don’t really know how this will affect his targets. Cincinnati has been without both starting CB’s, but may get Dre Kirkpatrick back this week. I have Diggs as a WR2/Flex this week with Thielen being a solid WR1, must start.


12/15/17, 05:20 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Robert Woods

Los Angeles Rams

Back in Action


Seahawks Weeks 1-9 (With Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman)
Passing success rate allowed: 2nd
Explosive pass rate allowed:19th
Weeks 11-14 (Without Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman)
Passing success rate allowed: 22nd
Explosive pass rate allowed: 24th

Fantasy Goo: Robert Woods comes back this week, so I’m moving Watkins way down. Watkins production went up about 70% across the board with Woods out. Kupp’s production went up with Woods out as well, but even with Woods in the line-up he was second on the team in targets. Woods might need to knock some rust off after being out for three weeks so I have Woods and Kupp in the WR3/Flex range, and feel safe with starting either one.


12/15/17, 05:17 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Leonard Fournette

Jacksonville Jaguars

Jag's Starting JAG's


Jaguars RB Leonard Fournette missed his third straight day of practice today due to his quad injury. No practice all week.

Fantasy Goo: I expect Yeldon and Ivory to split the touches if Fournette doesn’t play, neither seems to be worth starting, but Houston has given up five rushing TD’s in the past three games (one to a QB).


12/15/17, 05:14 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jordan Howard

Chicago Bears

Here Comes the BOOM!


Detroit is allowing 3.4 offensive touchdowns per game over the past five weeks, the most in the league, they have also allowed a rushing touchdown in eight straight games. Jordan Howard is tied for the most runs of 10 or more yards (30) on the season. Howard has had 12 100-yard rushing games in his first two seasons and he wasn’t even the starter the first four games last year.

Fantasy Goo: Howard is really boom-bust, he has yet to pair together fantasy RB1 weeks this year. He had a huge game last week and his match-up this week is just too sweet to think that he won’t be able to break this trend.


12/15/17, 05:12 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Zach Ertz

Philadelphia Eagles

In the Clear


Zach Ertz has cleared the concussion protocol and will play this week.

He’s pretty much ranked as the number three TE across the industry, but I think he lacks the boom upside we might think he has against the Giants. His production with Foles, back in 2013, was only slightly lower than his production this year. In the first nine games the Giants gave up a TD to a TE in every game. In the last four games the Giants have only given up one, to Jason Witten, who has historically torched the Giants, it was his only catch of the game. They even managed to keep Kelce out of the end-zone, I believe a couple of OPI’s were involved there and Kelce did get 109 yards receiving though. I believe Ertz is a prime candidate for 5/50/1, but I don’t expect him to win you your week or be worth paying up for in DFS.


12/15/17, 05:11 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Nick Foles

Philadelphia Eagles

Not Skipping a Beat


Carson Wentz is out for the season, and maybe some of Next season with a torn ACL. Over their first 24 games Foles has more TD’s, fewer INT’s, and more yards that Wentz has in his first 24 games. Foles was a Pro Bowler who threw 27 TD & 2 INT with the Eagles in 2013. The last time Nick Foles faced the Raiders, he threw for 7 TDs.

Fantasy Goo: I’m not saying there won’t be an adjustment period and I’m not trying to say the Eagles are better-off without Wentz, but Foles is a very capable back-up and if he can stir-up that 2013 magic the Eagles should be fine. Normally I’d say wait a week before starting Foles or any of the skill position players on the Eagles, but with it being week 15 and the match-up being a weak Giants defense, I’m starting them all as you usually would.


12/13/17, 03:59 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Lamar Miller

Houston Texans

Miller a Solid Cash Play on DFS


Miller will face the 49'ers, who according to Football Outsiders ranks 30th in Defensive DVOA.

Fantasy Goo: In the last 3 weeks, Miller is 6th in total carries. In cash games, you want opportunity. Considering the 49'ers run one of the fastest paced offenses in the league, his carries, already in the top 10 in recent weeks, should see an increase.


12/10/17, 11:14 AM CST by PyromaniacMo

Source: www.footballoutsiders.com


Giovani Bernard

Cincinnati Bengals

Gio Free Square


Gio is gets the starting role today as there as Mixon is out.

Fantasy Goo: The man is only $3100 on Draft Kings. The Baengals are home and 6 point favorites. The game script could easily favor the ground game, which means Gio should get plenty of touches to surpass 3X value.


12/10/17, 10:57 AM CST by PyromaniacMo

Source: www.pyromaniac.com


Zach Ertz

Philadelphia Eagles

Still in Concussion Protocol


Eagles still want to look at TE Zach Ertz and his concussion on Sunday, but he is considered doubtful for game vs. Rams even though he is listed as questionable.

Fantasy Goo: Trey Burton has been a big name all week, going for 4 receptions for 42 yards after Ertz’s exit last week. Burton is a versatile athlete, but not a premier TE like Ertz. His good numbers came against Denver which is giving up the second most points to the TE position this year. Philly faces the Rams this week who are sixth best in fantasy points allowed. I'm not considering Burton a good stream this week.


12/10/17, 10:19 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Ameer Abdullah

Detroit Lions

Pain in the Neck


Detroit Lions RB Ameer Abdullah (neck, questionable) is not expected to play today, source said, though it's more for play than injury reasons. Detroit is trying other players to improve the run game.

Fantasy Goo: This isn’t surprising given Abdullah’s disappointing performances over the past year and more.
Tion Green led the team with 51 rushing yards in his debut last week, and figures to be the Lions' ball-carrier Sunday in Tampa. Pass-catcher Theo Riddick will see reps as well and I expect that he has a safer floor especially in PPR.


12/10/17, 10:05 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Chris Hogan

New England Patriots

Primed for Monday Return


Hogan has been out the past four weeks and has basically caused me a playoff berth in one of my dynasty leagues. If you’re still in it I’d get him into the line-up. With Gronk out Hogan should see a solid number of targets.


12/10/17, 10:03 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Amari Cooper

Oakland Raiders

It's A Trap


Source says, if Cooper can cut at full speed and start and stop in pregame workout, they will use him on a limited basis or “pitch count.” Calls it a “very dramatic turnaround” from what team was expecting 48 hours ago.

Fantasy Goo: Total decoy move, I’m not starting him even if he is healthy enough to play. Cooper went for 11/210/2 when he faced the Chiefs in Week 7, so it is tempting to put him in, but you’ve got to figure that the Raiders want him in there just so the Chiefs have to play coverage his way and leave Crabtree in single coverage.


12/10/17, 10:01 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Todd Gurley

Los Angeles Rams

Lower Expectations This Week


Todd Gurley has just 1 TD over his last four games, but still has finished as RB6, RB16, RB8, and RB7 in those games. The TD came in the RB16 week. Insane usage AND efficiency from Gurley.

Fantasy Goo: He’s been the most consistent RB1 for the entire season, which is a nice turn-around from a disappointing 2016. He faces the Eagles this week who are second-best in fantasy points allowed to the RB position this year. I think we have to start him, but expectations must be lowered. He’s a fade in DFS this week.


12/09/17, 12:58 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Josh Gordon

Cleveland Browns

Balls Flying Everywhere


Per @rotounderworld, 70% of DeShone Kizer's pass attempts have been catchable balls, the third-lowest rate among quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts this season. Winds expected near 20 mph in Cleveland this week.

Fantasy Goo: I would not consider starting Kizer at any point this year, but the key question here is will he be able to get the ball anywhere near Josh Gordon. He was only able to catch 4 of the 11 balls thrown in his direction last week, but he was going against one of the top corners in the league. He was still able to rack up 85 yards, and had over 200 air-yards, so we can be confident the opportunity will be there. If I had him anywhere I would most likely start him and will probably have him ranked as a mid-range WR2.


12/09/17, 12:53 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Andy Dalton

Cincinnati Bengals

Red Rocket Time


Andy Dalton’s finishes last 3 weeks: QB9, QB12, QB6. Over the last 3 wks he is QB 7.
This week he faces Chicago whose pass defense over the past 3 games is allowing a QBR of 103, a 68% completion percentage, and 6th highest passing percentage for 1st downs.

Fantasy Goo: Dalton is a viable streamer this week, but I hesitate to rank him in the top 12. If you’re in the playoffs you’re probably just riding with what got you there, but if you’re stuck with a questionable match-up Dalton is a solid option. Also consider that while Chicago’s defense has looked good most of the year, their best games have been at home, this game is in Cincinnati.


12/09/17, 12:50 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Players that are getting over drafted and have a chance to fall flat on their faces for fantasy football owners

Pop's Busts for Fantasy Football in 2017

Posted by d-Rx on 07/27/17

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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“If you align expectations with reality, you will never be disappointed.” ---Terrell Owens

 

Expectations can be a hard thing for any of us to live up to. The pressure that is put on us by family or Co-workers can bring even the strongest to their knees. What about expectation put on you by complete strangers, most of which you will never see or hear from. This is how as Fantasy Football enthusiast we put pressure on the young men of the NFL.


D-Rx has given me the task of developing an article about 2017 Sleepers and Bust. I am to come up with a list of players who will either exceed expectations or fall short of them. I am a positive guy and have no problem pointing out players who I feel will exceed their ADP, but what of the Bust. What makes a bust? Is it Injury, or the coaches, underperformance, or is it expectations. If it is expectations, then whose? Every year at the end of the season we as fantasy nation tattoo the scarlet letter on players butts, but were they a bust to the team or just ourselves. If these players are really such a bust then they should be cut by their teams, never to play another down in the NFL, but teams keep them around, why? The answer is EXPECTATIONS!! It was our expectations they fell short of we took them with a 1st round pick and they only rushed for 850 and 8 TDs. The team may be very content with that or they may say our line was banged up. My point is this. WE as FF Nation are the ones who really dictate who is a bust and who is not. Let that sink in for a second. Fantasy Football has grown to a point that we are starting to influence how players in the regular media are perceived.


My goal with this article will be to point out player that for whatever reason I feel will fall short of expectations. I will not try to point out players who have injury risk, you know who they are Watkins, Allen, Peterson. Instead, I will go on the assumption that each will stay healthy but underperform to their preseason ADP.  This portion of the article will be harder for me to write. I hope they all prove me wrong and live up to the expectations that FF nation has given them.

 


Your 2017 Unfulfilled Expectations


Jordan Howard RB CHI – I will always shy away from backs on bad teams and the Bears are a BAD team. The one thing I will say positive for him is he is on a team with a good line. PFF has the Bears as the #5 line in the league. He should increase his carries this season from the 252, but expect that 5.2 yards per to come down. The Bears will struggle to move the ball effectively and the number of Red Zone attempts required to be a Top Tier back will just not be there. I didn’t want to speculate on injuries but it is hard for any back who is a banger to stay healthy for an entire season and he is a physical player who doesn’t have the willingness or the ability to avoid big hits. If he plays to his ceiling he can finish as a top 12 back, but that is it. Can’t see him bringing 1st round value.


LaGarrette Blount RB PHI – How can 18 rushing TDs be a bust? Simple you go from the best team in the league to an also ran. Blount had 18 TDs yes, but only had a 3.9 yards per. Forget any points from the passing game, there are none with Blount. He had just 7 receptions in 2016. 2016 was far and away his best season. The question you must ask was he a product of game script. Pryor to 2016 his best season was 2010 when he had 1,007 and 6 TDs. That was the only time he cracked the 1000 yards mark until 2017. He is on his 6th team since joining the league. That alone should raise an eyebrow. He is a short yardage player who is not that particularly good at that. The Eagles only gave him a 1-year deal and it was only 900,00 base. They were not impressed with the 2016 numbers. Let me rephrase that I think the 2016 numbers was the ONLY reason he got a contract. He will fall back to what he has been is entire career and that is a backup who will give you about 400 yards and 4 TDs. His current ADP has him at 4.12 which should be your number 2. He is going ahead of guys like Cook, Anderson and Ingram.  Pyro has him more realistic at RB 35. This is probably the best he does.


Isaiah Crowell RB CLV – I am hesitant to put the Crow on this list, but going back to what I said in the opener. His expectations and ADP is climbing to a point that I think he could disappoint. I have been singing the praises of the Browns this off season. I have written articles on the job they have done and discipline they have shown. I believe I am not alone in my belief and therefore his ADP has climbed. He does have talent and the line is fantastic this year, PFF #2. There are a couple of things he will have to contend with. The first and most glaring is the Browns will not be in that many positive game scripts. I expect the Browns to win more this year but since they only won 1 last year any will be a large jump. My summation on the Crow I like him as a player, but not a 3rd rounder. Johnson, in my belief is a more talented back whose receiving ability will show when the Browns are down. Let Crow drop to like 5th if you can. If he goes higher take Duke later.


Jeremy Hill RB CIN – After flashing into the league in 2014 Hill has failed to live up to the rookie numbers of 1,124 and 9. His TD numbers have stayed consistent with 9, 11 and 9 but has failed to break 1000 since that rookie year. He has always had to split snaps with Gio taking almost all the passing work. This is a tough call for me to make on Hill. His ADP is 10.09 which puts him in a range that bust potential is diminished. My issue is this I believe the Bengals have hired his replacement. They took the troubled Joe Mixon, a back that has had well documented issues but on field talent is off the charts. Mixon is a complete back and with Gio still ailing Mixon should have a chance to shine earlier than expected and once he does could easily prove more valuable than either of these backs. I compare his situation to that of Jonathan Stewart, a veteran back who may have to deal with his replacement except Stewart is a better back than Hill and will not give up the starting spot as easy. Look for Hills roll to be reduced as the year drags on, not to mention all the Bengals backs will have to run behind a line that PFF has as 31st. Reminder if you forgot there are only 32 teams in the league.

 

Latavius Murray RB MIN – Murray finished the season with 788 and 12 behind the #2 line in the league by PFF. He now goes on to Minnesota who finished as the 29th ranked line. PFF preseason does have them improving this year but only up to 15th. This coupled with a much more talented backfield he should see a diminished work load. His current ADP is 8.03 which is ahead of more talented players player like Stewart, Dixon, and Rawls. Is there any indication that his numbers will be greater than what McKinnon and Asiata could produce, which was 941 and 8 combined. No way does he produce anything like that. All of the eyes will be on the rookie Cook this season. He will be the back to own in the Twin cities, but don’t get to worked up about him. The Vikes had just 9 rushing TDs. A number I don’t expect to significantly increase.


Ty Montgomery RB GB – Montgomery took over the roll as lead back in Green Bay out of necessity. Montgomery surprised in his new role rushing for 457 on just 6 games started. Therefore, his ADP has climbed to 4.09. Green Bay drafted a couple of backs this year notably Jamaal Williams. I can’t see Montgomery holding up as a 3 down back. I would expect the rook to get a larger load as the year moves on.


Brandin Cooks WR NE – Cooks left the Saints for a chance to get a ring with the Pats. Well that is what he might get but I doubt a 1000-yard season is in the books. With an ADP of 3.05 he is ahead of Watkins and D. Thomas. Clear number one guys for their respective teams. Cooks will have to compete with competition from Edleman, Gronk, White, Amendola, I could go on, but I think you get my point. He will be much more valuable for the Pats than he will be for Fantasy. No way does he return 3rd round value.


Allen Robinson WR JAC – Robinson had an ADP of 1.12 in 2016, and as we all know he failed to live up to that spot. He only managed to produce 883 and 6 TDs. My question is this, has anything changed this season to make us think he will be closer to 2015 numbers? The answer is no. He still should deal with Bortles and that throwing motion that looks like he is trying to kill a snake in a phone booth. In 2015, he had a ton of garbage time yards and TDs. This because the Jags were always behind and were chucking it to try and catch up. Their defense this year will be significantly better which means less garbage time. I expect numbers around what he had last year maybe a little better but not to the level of his current ADP of 4.02.


Tyreek Hill WR KC – Hill is fast and as quick as a hiccup, he is also small. 5’ 10” 185 lbs. Which means one big pop from a safety and good night sweet prince. Hill was a fantastic gimmick player last season. Taking Jet sweeps and pitches out of the backfield. Now with the departure of Maclin he will be forced into a new role. A role he has not proven he can handle. I am not saying he can’t excel at his role but what I am not willing to do is gamble on unproven commodity at his current ADP of 4.08 ahead of guys like Bryant, Crabtree and Landry. If he turns into the next coming of Antonio Brown then I guess Pop was wrong. Going on how I was burnt on Patterson a season or so ago I am just getting an over hyped vibe. I will own Hill in exactly one league this season. A keeper league for a 14th. At that price, I am ok with just about any upside guy. Hill was incredibly effective on limited touched he had 9 total TDs on just 85. With the increased load that rate is unsustainable.

 

Greg Olsen TE CAR – Here is my most controversial pick on the list, and the one that I hope I am wrong about. The Sabbath song “Changes” is going through my head and through the Queen City. Carolina will be make some changes to the way the conduct business this season. They drafted Stanford’s Christion McCaffrey and slot receiver Curtis Samual. They will be asking Newton to do something he has not done up this point. That is to run less and throw more short passes. Olsen was the leading receiver for Carolina last year with 1,073, but only managed 3 TDs. With the new additions, this year the numbers must take a dip, but a dip in the TE numbers are relative. There is not that large of a gap between the 4th TE and the 10th. Just 154 yards separated the 4th TE and the 10th last season. Just 9.6 yards a game. Olsen is a fantastic Tight End he is going at a ADP of 5.05 the 4th TE of the board. With all the uncertainty in Carolina this year I would be hard pressed to take Olsen that high.


Delanie Walker TE TEN – Walker has been Mariota go to guy for the past 2 seasons. Mariota’s rookie season he only had eyes for Walker with 133 targets for 94 receptions. That number dipped in 2016 to 102 and 65. What was the difference between the 2 years? Competent receivers and Mariota confidence. Walker is no spring chicken either at 32. Again, it is hard to call someone a bust at TE when all the starters barring injury will be close at season end. Walker is going at TE 8 currently but I could easily see him slipping to like 12. The Titans will take a step forward this season and should see some of those receptions going to rookie Corey Davis, but this is a zero-sum game. When you only have X amount of receptions to go around they must come from somewhere.


Cam Newton QB CAR -  I am not sure he will really be considered a bust, this is mainly for those who still think he might rush for 5 or 6 hundred yards rushing. I will say up front I am not a big Newton Fan, too much preening for my taste, but I am old so maybe the kids like it. I just say less dance moves and more reading defenses. Newton finished with 3,509 passing and added 359 on the ground. What was the big dip from the 2015 MVP season? The TDs he only had 24 combined last season compared to 45 his MVP season. He was considered a bust last season when he was being take in the 1st or 2nd rounds. This season his ADP is 7.08 and I would suspect in my neck of the woods even higher. Seems a little steep considering he came in at 21. When you look at his number over the past few seasons he was not that far off what he has done. 2015 was a magical year when everything went right. Newton when he runs can give you top 8 QB numbers but he is being asked to dial that back, and his passing number by themselves will not bring him in as a QB 1. Check back in a week and I will let you know what I see at Panthers Camp.


Matt Ryan QB ATL – Ryan like Newton the year before had a magical year. Everything went right and the Falcons played lights out and should have won a Superbowl. This year their OC Kyle Shanahan has moved to the far coast to take over the 49ers. All the offensive weapons are still in place except for the play caller. With the bad taste that loss put in their mouths I can see regression all over the place. Ryan is coming off at the 5th QB way too rich for a player whose best finish was 300 yards less than last season. He had his best TD number last season as well. If you are betting on Ryan to put up those same kinds of numbers you are setting yourself up for disappointment.


Again, it is my hope I am wrong about these players. I hope all of them flourish in 2017. It is hard to live up to expectations, but when you can exceed what is expected of you than you can deal with the times when they come, and they all come for all of us at some point.

 

 

 

 

By Pop's



 

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