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James Conner

Pittsburgh Steelers

Conner Solid in Debut


Steelers rookie RB James Conner rushed 20 times for 98 yards and caught 1-of-4 targets for three yards on his preseason debut Sunday night. This was his first preseason action after being out with a shoulder injury.

Fantasy Goo: Conner is trying to earn himself the back-up role to LeVeon Bell, and he should have a role if Bell does go down at all, but duties will almost certainly be split between Conner and Fitzgerald Tousaint if that were to happen. Conner is a solid dynasty pick in the double digit rounds, especially if the Steelers don’t extend his deal prior to the start of the season.


08/20/17, 09:19 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alvin Kamara

New Orleans Saints

Kamara Lives Up To Hype Today


“Saints rookie RB Alvin Kamara rushed 5 times for 61 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's preseason game against the Chargers. Kamara's first carry of the game was an explosive 50-yard touchdown run. He was also utilized in the passing game, catching a ball in the flat and scampering for a 20 yard gain.”

Fantasy Goo: This is all against the Chargers second and third string, so don’t get too excited, but it does appear that Kamara could contribute and make this backfield very difficult to predict from week-to-week. Kamara looks to be a very solid dynasty pick in the seventh round.


08/20/17, 09:15 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Anquan Boldin

Detroit Lions

Boldin Retires... For Now...


Anquan Boldin left the Bills today and has informed them he is retiring
This almost definitely allows Matthews to work from the slot/flanker role, not that it really changes the Bills plans. From the glimpse of the Bills preseason game I saw, they had Boldin working outside in the X-receiver position, formerly held by Watkins. I have little doubt that Boldin knows he no longer has the physical ability to fulfil the requirements of that position, so he left.

Fantasy Goo: I still think he ends up somewhere, and will vulture enough TD’s to devalue others, but not have enough value on his own to be fantasy viable. Zay Jones is back in play for the late round flyer, and Clay is looking like a good match-up streamer at TE.


08/20/17, 07:53 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Zay Jones

Detroit Lions

Boldin Retires... For Now...


Anquan Boldin left the Bills today and has informed them he is retiring
This almost definitely allows Matthews to work from the slot/flanker role, not that it really changes the Bills plans. From the glimpse of the Bills preseason game I saw, they had Boldin working outside in the X-receiver position, formerly held by Watkins. I have little doubt that Boldin knows he no longer has the physical ability to fulfil the requirements of that position, so he left.

Fantasy Goo: I still think he ends up somewhere, and will vulture enough TD’s to devalue others, but not have enough value on his own to be fantasy viable. Zay Jones is back in play for the late round flyer, and Clay is looking like a good match-up streamer at TE.


08/20/17, 07:53 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Charles Clay

Detroit Lions

Boldin Retires... For Now...


Anquan Boldin left the Bills today and has informed them he is retiring
This almost definitely allows Matthews to work from the slot/flanker role, not that it really changes the Bills plans. From the glimpse of the Bills preseason game I saw, they had Boldin working outside in the X-receiver position, formerly held by Watkins. I have little doubt that Boldin knows he no longer has the physical ability to fulfil the requirements of that position, so he left.

Fantasy Goo: I still think he ends up somewhere, and will vulture enough TD’s to devalue others, but not have enough value on his own to be fantasy viable. Zay Jones is back in play for the late round flyer, and Clay is looking like a good match-up streamer at TE.


08/20/17, 07:53 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jordan Reed

Washington Redskins

Jordan Reed (toe) Activated from PUP List


Fantasy Goo: Reed has averaged the most fantasy points per game over the past two seasons and is targeted on a minimum of 15% of his routes. Like Gronk, with Reed you have to assume that he will not play all 16 games, but don’t shy away from Reed because when he was active in 2016 he was a top 10 TE 75% of the time.


08/20/17, 05:45 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Le'Veon Bell

Pittsburgh Steelers

Bell Lookin' To Get PAID!


“Steelers RB Le'Veon Bell will report back to team before regular season kicks off, though it remains unclear exactly when.” Bell values himself at about $15mm per year, your move Rooney.

Fantasy Goo: There is no doubt Bell is an elite RB1 when he is active, this hold-out makes me nervous. He might be staying in shape, but there is no way to really simulate game-speed without actually participating with the team. He missed 3 games last year and came in shredding defenses, but that is much different than missing camp completely.


08/18/17, 05:48 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Eddie Lacy

Seattle Seahawks

Seattle's Crowded Backfield


Seattle Seahawks RB Thomas Rawls ankle injury will hold him out of week 2 preseason action on Friday. It’s being called a minor injury and Eddie Lacy is now expected to be the starting tailback for the second preseason game.

Fantasy Goo: When it was first announced that Rawls would get the start I thought nothing of it, teams usually rest their banged-up players week 2 anyway. Week 3 is what we really care about, but if they’re resting Rawls this week that becomes somewhat questionable. We should probably consider this a full blown committee at this point, in which case you can read our “League Winners” article to see who I think is worthy of drafting in this backfield.


08/17/17, 09:24 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Thomas Rawls

Seattle Seahawks

Seattle's Crowded Backfield


Seattle Seahawks RB Thomas Rawls ankle injury will hold him out of week 2 preseason action on Friday. It’s being called a minor injury and Eddie Lacy is now expected to be the starting tailback for the second preseason game.

Fantasy Goo: When it was first announced that Rawls would get the start I thought nothing of it, teams usually rest their banged-up players week 2 anyway. Week 3 is what we really care about, but if they’re resting Rawls this week that becomes somewhat questionable. We should probably consider this a full blown committee at this point, in which case you can read our “League Winners” article to see who I think is worthy of drafting in this backfield.


08/17/17, 09:24 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Andrew Luck

Indianapolis Colts

Indy Needs Some Luck


There has been quite a bit of concern about Andrew Luck’s availability to start the season on the active roster after offseason surgery. Hartbeat points out that, “Colts seem confident in Luck for week 1 as they haven't changed their playbook.” There is a concern about his offensive line though as starting C Ryan Kelly is likely to find himself on the designated IR for return after foot surgery.

Fantasy Goo: Luck put together a 2016 season with a career best 71.2 QBR and a 92.4 PFF grade. If he’s healthy he’s a must start, and his ADP has fallen nearly two rounds since August first. He is now being drafted as the eighth QB off the board. Check out the Draft Kit vol.3 to get the full goo.


08/17/17, 08:57 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Curtis Samuel

Carolina Panthers

Samuel Back in Pads


Curtis Samuel was back in full pads for today's practice (Wednesday), he has missed almost all of training camp with a hamstring problem that began as a issue in the spring. He's been out for so long that it's hard to see him having a immediate early-season role.

Fantasy Goo: Samuel is the ultimate utility knife if he can get healthy, he can pick up the big plays vacated by Ginn and match anything fellow rookie McCaffrey does in the passing game.


08/16/17, 08:15 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Ty Montgomery

Green Bay Packers

Green Bay Rookie's on Display


“Ty Montgomery’s likely absence from Saturday night’s preseason game at Washington will put an even bigger spotlight on the depth-chart battle involving three of Green Bay’s third-day draft picks. Williams is the front-runner in part because he’s shown the best aptitude for pass protection in the backfield. Jones has displayed a different gear in the open field that he’d love to show off in a game if he gets a crease. Mays is the best example of compact power, at 5-10 and 230 pounds.”

Fantasy Goo:Ty performed very well last year with the 3rd best juke rate of 34% and the best yards per contact per touch of all RBs at 2.8. The issue with Montgomery is Jamaal Williams is in line to take away the short yardage work and it’s unclear what type of volume Ty can handle as he rushed double digits in only 1 game.


08/16/17, 07:58 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.packers.com


Jamaal Williams

Green Bay Packers

Green Bay Rookie's on Display


“Ty Montgomery’s likely absence from Saturday night’s preseason game at Washington will put an even bigger spotlight on the depth-chart battle involving three of Green Bay’s third-day draft picks. Williams is the front-runner in part because he’s shown the best aptitude for pass protection in the backfield. Jones has displayed a different gear in the open field that he’d love to show off in a game if he gets a crease. Mays is the best example of compact power, at 5-10 and 230 pounds.”

Fantasy Goo:Ty performed very well last year with the 3rd best juke rate of 34% and the best yards per contact per touch of all RBs at 2.8. The issue with Montgomery is Jamaal Williams is in line to take away the short yardage work and it’s unclear what type of volume Ty can handle as he rushed double digits in only 1 game.


08/16/17, 07:58 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.packers.com


Jaron Brown

Arizona Cardinals

Jaron Number Two?


Larry Fitzgerald is the No. 1 wideout. Brown? “He’s No. 2 right now,” Coach Bruce Arians said Tuesday.
“I’ve been here for a while,” Jaron Brown said. “Every camp is different. We obviously have injuries, and that gives me an opportunity. I just try to take advantage.

Fantasy Goo: I could see Jaron shooting up draft boards, and I like him as a last round dart throw, but this just makes that receiving corps all the more crowded. A torn ACL prevented Jaron from possibly breaking-out last year. Yesterday we thought JJ Nelson would emerge, I’m sure we will be re-visiting this regularly.


08/16/17, 04:21 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Cole Beasley

Dallas Cowboys

Beasley Under the Radar


NFL Next Gen Stats have revealed many of their numbers to the public recently. Hartbeat picked this one out on Twitter: Cole Beasley adding another advanced stat that he thrives in, Top 10 in separation among all pass catchers.

Fantasy Goo: Beasley was one of the most efficient weapons in the NFL last year. His Defense-adjusted Yards above Replacement and Defense-adjusted Value over Average ranked as 5th best among WRs. For more on Beasley and others check out the Pyro Pulse podcast episode 6, WR Tiers.


08/15/17, 05:08 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


John Brown

Arizona Cardinals

John Brown’s Health Back in Question


WR John Brown looking like sickle cell IS NOT being managed by the Cardinals. Could be another injury plagued season for Brown. Arians said WR John Brown not practicing full time is a concern (He's been participating in certain drills during practice).

Fantasy Goo: JJ Nelson was the WR11 in PPR scoring weeks 13-17, it appears as though we should be drafting Nelson as one of our late round flyers immediately. If the Brown news continues to be negative we will begin to see Nelson’s stock rise. Jaron Brown and Chad Williams are names we should also keep an eye on, but Arians has complained about their lack of performance publicly.


08/15/17, 04:28 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Maxx Williams

Baltimore Ravens

Maxx Looks Slow, Open Door for Watson


“Tight end Maxx Williams deserves a ton of credit for persevering through a serious knee surgery and getting back onto the field this summer. But in watching him run, it’s still pretty clear that he has a ways to go. He has bulked up and gotten considerably stronger, so it will be interesting to see whether he becomes more of a blocking tight end, assuming he’s on the season-opening roster.”

fantasy Goo: Ben Watson appears to be worth a last round flier. Denis Pitta was the number eight TE overall last year and he only scored 2 TD’s. Watson was the number 6 TE in 2015 with Drew Brees throwing him 6 TD’s.


08/15/17, 03:54 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.baltimoresun.com


Ryan Mathews

Philadelphia Eagles

Ryan Matthews Released


After passing his physical earlier today, The Eagles have informed former starting RB Ryan Mathews that he's been released. This move was completely expected, the Eagles save a bunch of money by releasing him now.

Fantasy Goo: Hartbeat would like to see him land in: IND, SF, MIA or CHI (all backup roles). I think the Giants or Ravens should see what he has left in the tank, even if it’s just a few games Matthews is a talented back, he’s just been drenched with injuries. I don’t think the team that picks him up has to pay much for him.


08/15/17, 03:30 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Devonta Freeman

Atlanta Falcons

Freeman in Concussion Protocol


Coach Quinn says Devonta Freeman is in concussion protocol, will be ruled out for Sunday's game. This really means nothing if he’s back by next week, but if this lingers like Jay Ajayi’s concussion, Coleman might actually be worth his draft value in the sixth round.

Fantasy Goo: Despite being only 206 lbs he had the 3rd most RZ carries with 53. Although Coleman is an extremely strong receiver Freeman was still top 5 in catches among RBs on only a 63% snap share.


08/14/17, 04:34 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Leonard Fournette

Jacksonville Jaguars

Fournette Battling Same Issues


Jaguars rookie RB Leonard Fournette suffered a foot injury and HC Doug Marrone said team intends to be "careful with him." Fournette battled a recurring foot/ankle injury throughout his final season at LSU. It was a real problem most of the year.

Fantasy Goo: Fournette was clocked running 22.9 MPH at LSU last season, for reference Tyreek Hill was the NFLs fastest player at 23.2MPH. It appears as though Jacksonville is being cautious, but rookies need to get on the field and learn the nuances of the NFL, especially pass blocking.


08/14/17, 03:31 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jordan Matthews

Buffalo Bills

Matthews Must Play With Pain


Bills' WR Jordan Mathews has what team is calling "a chip fracture in his sternum" and is week to week.
The good news is that it’s just a pain tolerance issue. The bad news is that it can be pretty painful.

Fantasy Goo: Matthews move to Buffalo had very little effect on his projections, but with lack of practice with his new team he will almost certainly get off to a slow start. Check the Pyro Pulse Podcast (Ep.5) to get the hot, sticky goo on how this affects the value of the other Bills and Eagles skill players.


08/14/17, 03:29 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Marqise Lee

Jacksonville Jaguars

Lee High Ankle Sprain Opens Door for Hurns, Again


Jaguars WR Marqise Lee suffered a high-ankle sprain, source said. He'll push hard to be ready for Week 1, but caution could push it back.

Fantasy Goo: Lee was the 39th overall pick of the 2014 draft. In 2016 he caught a career-high 63 passes for 851 yards and three touchdowns. He was finally healthy after continuous injuries the last two years. I think many would rank him higher if we could be sure that he has beaten Allen Hurns out for regular targets.


08/14/17, 02:56 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jordan Reed

Washington Redskins

Reed Has "Special Shoes"


“Redskins tight end Jordan Reed said his new cleats and orthotics have made a difference for his sprained big toe. Reed said, "I'll be out there shortly." He remains on the PUP list.”

Fantasy Goo: Jay Gruden has made it very clear that the offense runs through Jordan Reed, this was never more prominent than when the Redskins let their two best WRs based on production walk this offseason. Reed has obviously red flags when it comes to injuries, he is one dirty hit away from a career ending concussion. When he is healthy, there is no TE that I would rather have, Reed has averaged the most fantasy points per game over the past two seasons and is targeted on a minimum of 15% of his routes.
For more see Hartbeat TE Gold Diggers vol.1


08/13/17, 08:24 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Sterling Shepard

New York Giants

Shepard Back in Practice


“Just 11 days after he was carted off the practice field with an ankle injury fearing the worst, Shepard practiced fully with his teammates on Sunday. There appeared to be very few restrictions on the second-year receiver, who also didn't seem to be favoring his injured ankle at all.”

Fantasy Goo: Shepard finished second among rookie WRs in targets, catches, yards and touchdowns. In general, second year WRs see a jump in fantasy production by 16%, but Sterling is more likely to move in an inverse fashion. With the Giants bringing in Brandon Marshall and Evan Engram, Shepard is the most likely to see a decrease in targets. See Hartbeat, WR Gold Diggers vol.1 for more.


08/13/17, 07:55 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Players that are getting over drafted and have a chance to fall flat on their faces for fantasy football owners

Pop's Busts for Fantasy Football in 2017

Posted by d-Rx on 07/27/17

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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“If you align expectations with reality, you will never be disappointed.” ---Terrell Owens

 

Expectations can be a hard thing for any of us to live up to. The pressure that is put on us by family or Co-workers can bring even the strongest to their knees. What about expectation put on you by complete strangers, most of which you will never see or hear from. This is how as Fantasy Football enthusiast we put pressure on the young men of the NFL.


D-Rx has given me the task of developing an article about 2017 Sleepers and Bust. I am to come up with a list of players who will either exceed expectations or fall short of them. I am a positive guy and have no problem pointing out players who I feel will exceed their ADP, but what of the Bust. What makes a bust? Is it Injury, or the coaches, underperformance, or is it expectations. If it is expectations, then whose? Every year at the end of the season we as fantasy nation tattoo the scarlet letter on players butts, but were they a bust to the team or just ourselves. If these players are really such a bust then they should be cut by their teams, never to play another down in the NFL, but teams keep them around, why? The answer is EXPECTATIONS!! It was our expectations they fell short of we took them with a 1st round pick and they only rushed for 850 and 8 TDs. The team may be very content with that or they may say our line was banged up. My point is this. WE as FF Nation are the ones who really dictate who is a bust and who is not. Let that sink in for a second. Fantasy Football has grown to a point that we are starting to influence how players in the regular media are perceived.


My goal with this article will be to point out player that for whatever reason I feel will fall short of expectations. I will not try to point out players who have injury risk, you know who they are Watkins, Allen, Peterson. Instead, I will go on the assumption that each will stay healthy but underperform to their preseason ADP.  This portion of the article will be harder for me to write. I hope they all prove me wrong and live up to the expectations that FF nation has given them.

 


Your 2017 Unfulfilled Expectations


Jordan Howard RB CHI – I will always shy away from backs on bad teams and the Bears are a BAD team. The one thing I will say positive for him is he is on a team with a good line. PFF has the Bears as the #5 line in the league. He should increase his carries this season from the 252, but expect that 5.2 yards per to come down. The Bears will struggle to move the ball effectively and the number of Red Zone attempts required to be a Top Tier back will just not be there. I didn’t want to speculate on injuries but it is hard for any back who is a banger to stay healthy for an entire season and he is a physical player who doesn’t have the willingness or the ability to avoid big hits. If he plays to his ceiling he can finish as a top 12 back, but that is it. Can’t see him bringing 1st round value.


LaGarrette Blount RB PHI – How can 18 rushing TDs be a bust? Simple you go from the best team in the league to an also ran. Blount had 18 TDs yes, but only had a 3.9 yards per. Forget any points from the passing game, there are none with Blount. He had just 7 receptions in 2016. 2016 was far and away his best season. The question you must ask was he a product of game script. Pryor to 2016 his best season was 2010 when he had 1,007 and 6 TDs. That was the only time he cracked the 1000 yards mark until 2017. He is on his 6th team since joining the league. That alone should raise an eyebrow. He is a short yardage player who is not that particularly good at that. The Eagles only gave him a 1-year deal and it was only 900,00 base. They were not impressed with the 2016 numbers. Let me rephrase that I think the 2016 numbers was the ONLY reason he got a contract. He will fall back to what he has been is entire career and that is a backup who will give you about 400 yards and 4 TDs. His current ADP has him at 4.12 which should be your number 2. He is going ahead of guys like Cook, Anderson and Ingram.  Pyro has him more realistic at RB 35. This is probably the best he does.


Isaiah Crowell RB CLV – I am hesitant to put the Crow on this list, but going back to what I said in the opener. His expectations and ADP is climbing to a point that I think he could disappoint. I have been singing the praises of the Browns this off season. I have written articles on the job they have done and discipline they have shown. I believe I am not alone in my belief and therefore his ADP has climbed. He does have talent and the line is fantastic this year, PFF #2. There are a couple of things he will have to contend with. The first and most glaring is the Browns will not be in that many positive game scripts. I expect the Browns to win more this year but since they only won 1 last year any will be a large jump. My summation on the Crow I like him as a player, but not a 3rd rounder. Johnson, in my belief is a more talented back whose receiving ability will show when the Browns are down. Let Crow drop to like 5th if you can. If he goes higher take Duke later.


Jeremy Hill RB CIN – After flashing into the league in 2014 Hill has failed to live up to the rookie numbers of 1,124 and 9. His TD numbers have stayed consistent with 9, 11 and 9 but has failed to break 1000 since that rookie year. He has always had to split snaps with Gio taking almost all the passing work. This is a tough call for me to make on Hill. His ADP is 10.09 which puts him in a range that bust potential is diminished. My issue is this I believe the Bengals have hired his replacement. They took the troubled Joe Mixon, a back that has had well documented issues but on field talent is off the charts. Mixon is a complete back and with Gio still ailing Mixon should have a chance to shine earlier than expected and once he does could easily prove more valuable than either of these backs. I compare his situation to that of Jonathan Stewart, a veteran back who may have to deal with his replacement except Stewart is a better back than Hill and will not give up the starting spot as easy. Look for Hills roll to be reduced as the year drags on, not to mention all the Bengals backs will have to run behind a line that PFF has as 31st. Reminder if you forgot there are only 32 teams in the league.

 

Latavius Murray RB MIN – Murray finished the season with 788 and 12 behind the #2 line in the league by PFF. He now goes on to Minnesota who finished as the 29th ranked line. PFF preseason does have them improving this year but only up to 15th. This coupled with a much more talented backfield he should see a diminished work load. His current ADP is 8.03 which is ahead of more talented players player like Stewart, Dixon, and Rawls. Is there any indication that his numbers will be greater than what McKinnon and Asiata could produce, which was 941 and 8 combined. No way does he produce anything like that. All of the eyes will be on the rookie Cook this season. He will be the back to own in the Twin cities, but don’t get to worked up about him. The Vikes had just 9 rushing TDs. A number I don’t expect to significantly increase.


Ty Montgomery RB GB – Montgomery took over the roll as lead back in Green Bay out of necessity. Montgomery surprised in his new role rushing for 457 on just 6 games started. Therefore, his ADP has climbed to 4.09. Green Bay drafted a couple of backs this year notably Jamaal Williams. I can’t see Montgomery holding up as a 3 down back. I would expect the rook to get a larger load as the year moves on.


Brandin Cooks WR NE – Cooks left the Saints for a chance to get a ring with the Pats. Well that is what he might get but I doubt a 1000-yard season is in the books. With an ADP of 3.05 he is ahead of Watkins and D. Thomas. Clear number one guys for their respective teams. Cooks will have to compete with competition from Edleman, Gronk, White, Amendola, I could go on, but I think you get my point. He will be much more valuable for the Pats than he will be for Fantasy. No way does he return 3rd round value.


Allen Robinson WR JAC – Robinson had an ADP of 1.12 in 2016, and as we all know he failed to live up to that spot. He only managed to produce 883 and 6 TDs. My question is this, has anything changed this season to make us think he will be closer to 2015 numbers? The answer is no. He still should deal with Bortles and that throwing motion that looks like he is trying to kill a snake in a phone booth. In 2015, he had a ton of garbage time yards and TDs. This because the Jags were always behind and were chucking it to try and catch up. Their defense this year will be significantly better which means less garbage time. I expect numbers around what he had last year maybe a little better but not to the level of his current ADP of 4.02.


Tyreek Hill WR KC – Hill is fast and as quick as a hiccup, he is also small. 5’ 10” 185 lbs. Which means one big pop from a safety and good night sweet prince. Hill was a fantastic gimmick player last season. Taking Jet sweeps and pitches out of the backfield. Now with the departure of Maclin he will be forced into a new role. A role he has not proven he can handle. I am not saying he can’t excel at his role but what I am not willing to do is gamble on unproven commodity at his current ADP of 4.08 ahead of guys like Bryant, Crabtree and Landry. If he turns into the next coming of Antonio Brown then I guess Pop was wrong. Going on how I was burnt on Patterson a season or so ago I am just getting an over hyped vibe. I will own Hill in exactly one league this season. A keeper league for a 14th. At that price, I am ok with just about any upside guy. Hill was incredibly effective on limited touched he had 9 total TDs on just 85. With the increased load that rate is unsustainable.

 

Greg Olsen TE CAR – Here is my most controversial pick on the list, and the one that I hope I am wrong about. The Sabbath song “Changes” is going through my head and through the Queen City. Carolina will be make some changes to the way the conduct business this season. They drafted Stanford’s Christion McCaffrey and slot receiver Curtis Samual. They will be asking Newton to do something he has not done up this point. That is to run less and throw more short passes. Olsen was the leading receiver for Carolina last year with 1,073, but only managed 3 TDs. With the new additions, this year the numbers must take a dip, but a dip in the TE numbers are relative. There is not that large of a gap between the 4th TE and the 10th. Just 154 yards separated the 4th TE and the 10th last season. Just 9.6 yards a game. Olsen is a fantastic Tight End he is going at a ADP of 5.05 the 4th TE of the board. With all the uncertainty in Carolina this year I would be hard pressed to take Olsen that high.


Delanie Walker TE TEN – Walker has been Mariota go to guy for the past 2 seasons. Mariota’s rookie season he only had eyes for Walker with 133 targets for 94 receptions. That number dipped in 2016 to 102 and 65. What was the difference between the 2 years? Competent receivers and Mariota confidence. Walker is no spring chicken either at 32. Again, it is hard to call someone a bust at TE when all the starters barring injury will be close at season end. Walker is going at TE 8 currently but I could easily see him slipping to like 12. The Titans will take a step forward this season and should see some of those receptions going to rookie Corey Davis, but this is a zero-sum game. When you only have X amount of receptions to go around they must come from somewhere.


Cam Newton QB CAR -  I am not sure he will really be considered a bust, this is mainly for those who still think he might rush for 5 or 6 hundred yards rushing. I will say up front I am not a big Newton Fan, too much preening for my taste, but I am old so maybe the kids like it. I just say less dance moves and more reading defenses. Newton finished with 3,509 passing and added 359 on the ground. What was the big dip from the 2015 MVP season? The TDs he only had 24 combined last season compared to 45 his MVP season. He was considered a bust last season when he was being take in the 1st or 2nd rounds. This season his ADP is 7.08 and I would suspect in my neck of the woods even higher. Seems a little steep considering he came in at 21. When you look at his number over the past few seasons he was not that far off what he has done. 2015 was a magical year when everything went right. Newton when he runs can give you top 8 QB numbers but he is being asked to dial that back, and his passing number by themselves will not bring him in as a QB 1. Check back in a week and I will let you know what I see at Panthers Camp.


Matt Ryan QB ATL – Ryan like Newton the year before had a magical year. Everything went right and the Falcons played lights out and should have won a Superbowl. This year their OC Kyle Shanahan has moved to the far coast to take over the 49ers. All the offensive weapons are still in place except for the play caller. With the bad taste that loss put in their mouths I can see regression all over the place. Ryan is coming off at the 5th QB way too rich for a player whose best finish was 300 yards less than last season. He had his best TD number last season as well. If you are betting on Ryan to put up those same kinds of numbers you are setting yourself up for disappointment.


Again, it is my hope I am wrong about these players. I hope all of them flourish in 2017. It is hard to live up to expectations, but when you can exceed what is expected of you than you can deal with the times when they come, and they all come for all of us at some point.

 

 

 

 

By Pop's



 

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