July 19, 2018


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LeSean McCoy

Buffalo Bills

McCoy starring down 30 with uncertainty

LeSean McCoy, despite ending the year as the #7 fantasy running back in standard leagues was a slight disappointment for fantasy owners last year. McCoy played in all 16 regular season games, but only cracked 100 yards rushing 4 times, and averaged 4.0 yards per rush, which was 23rd in the NFL. That all happened with a formidable QB with a scrambling ability that defenses had to respect, presumably allowing McCoy some more room before tacklers ascended.
The Bills have the least sexy QB situation in the entire NFL in my opinion. With Tyrod Taylor at the helm for most of the season last year, the bills had the 31st passing offense. None of the QBs on the Bills roster are considered mobile and without a wide receiver on their roster worthy of drafting in any fantasy formats, defenses can stack the box against McCoy. McCoy will be overused, underperform and probably get hurt because of it. McCoy’s ADP is in the second round, but wouldn’t touch him until the fourth or beginning of the fifth round.

06/29/18, 12:42 PM CDT by C-wags


Tyreek Hill

Kansas City Chiefs

Hill lookin' busty with chiefs new look.

Tyreek Hill had a great 2017, amounting 75 receptions for 1183 yards and 7 touchdowns in 15 games. He’s currently being drafted in the middle of the third round in standard leagues, which would appear to be a great value. However, with promoted RB coach Eric Bieniemy presumably in-line to be the primary play caller, a new QB, Travis Kelce receiving the #1 target share and the addition of Sammy Watkins, I expect Hill’s numbers to decrease dramatically.
I believe Hill to be more of a boom or bust player this year. There’s no denying his break-away speed and ability to separate from defenders, and with Mahomes cannon of an arm, I expect them to connect deep on occasion. However, I believe Sammy Watkins to be the more complete receiver and likely to take more of the target share from Hill. Bundled with the change in offensive strategy toward the end of last year to run the ball more, the change to a young QB presumably resulting in a more conservative game plan, I see a major decline in the amount of touches Hill will get and see him as more of a 5-6 round flex play guy.

06/21/18, 10:54 AM CDT by C-wags


Eric Ebron

Detroit Lions

Ebron Could Use Some Luck

Colts signed TE Eric Ebron, formerly of the Lions, to a two-year contract. Coach Frank Reich called Ebron an "elite tight end."

The last time we saw Andrew Luck healthy (2016), the Colts used 2+ TE sets at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL and had the 6th-highest target share to TEs.

04/01/18, 11:32 AM CDT by Wheeler


Carlos Hyde

San Francisco 49ers

Hyde and Seek

Browns agreed to terms with RB Carlos Hyde, formerly of the 49ers, on a three-year, $15 million contract.

Obtaining Hyde has several trickle-down effects; first it replaces Crowell who signed with the Jets, it probably diminishes Duke Johnson’s value a bit. Hyde is a better all-around back than Crowell was and will certainly take over the goal-line work seeing that he’s got 20+ pounds on Duke. It also reduces the likelihood that Cleveland takes Saquon Barkley with the 4th pick in the draft. They will most likely look to draft a defensive player (Chubb) or trade down again.

04/01/18, 11:28 AM CDT by Wheeler


Jerick McKinnon

Minnesota Vikings

McKinnon Goes West For Gold-Rush

49ers agreed to terms with RB Jerick McKinnon, formerly of the Vikings, on a four-year, $30 million contract.

McKinnon averaged a ho-hum 3.8 yards a carry for the Vikings and scored three rushing touchdowns. By contrast, San Francisco's former lead runner, Carlos Hyde, averaged 3.9 yards an attempt in 2017 and had eight rushing touchdowns.

It appears as though Shanahan is enamored with McKinnon's athletic metrics, but I'm not so sure he was "pounding the table" to get him. This move could push the Niner's to cut Joe Williams.

04/01/18, 11:12 AM CDT by Wheeler


Mike Wallace

Baltimore Ravens

Eagles Keep Improving

Eagles signed WR Mike Wallace to a one-year contract.
Mike Wallace can still move posting a top five max speed among wide receivers last season. He will fill the void left by Torrey Smith as a speed vertical threat.

04/01/18, 11:08 AM CDT by Wheeler


Terrelle Pryor

Washington Redskins

Jets Searching For Weapons

Jets agreed to terms with WR Terrelle Pryor, formerly of Washington and Cleveland.

Second year in a row on a new team doesn’t really help Pryor's cause, but I like the idea of him on the field with Teddy Bridgewater at some point. I would imagine, with some creativity, the Jets could really design some innovative gadget plays.
The Jets receiving corps really looks like a bunch of question marks at this point though, no telling what the week-to-week outcome will be with these guys.
Jermaine Kearse: 65 catches, 810 yards, 5 touchdowns (2017)
Robby Anderson: 63 catches, 941 yards, 7 touchdowns (2017)
Quincy Enunwa: 58 catches, 857 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)
Terrelle Pryor: 77 catches, 1007 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)

04/01/18, 11:04 AM CDT by Wheeler


Carlos Henderson

Denver Broncos

Sleeper Watch

Broncos coach Vance Joseph said the team is "counting on" Carlos Henderson making an impact in 2018.

If you are paying attention to Staggs projections there is plenty of opportunity for Henderson to step into a solid number of targets in the slot. Henderson was hindered by injury and awful QB play last year. Being drafted in the 18th round or later in best-ball leagues, Henderson is the late round flyer that should be on your radar.

04/01/18, 11:00 AM CDT by Wheeler


Ben Watson

Baltimore Ravens

Watson Returns To Big Easy

Saints signed TE Ben Watson, formerly of the Ravens, to a one-year contract.

Watson had 74 catches on 110 targets for 825 yards and 6 TD’s when he was with the Saints in 2015. After missing 2016 he had a pretty good year with Baltimore last year despite an anemic offense, with 61 catches on 79 targets for 522 yards and 4 TD’s. He’s not a bad late round flyer TE. He’s basically free right now, but I expect by the time the season starts he’ll be being drafted within the top 20 at the position.

04/01/18, 10:54 AM CDT by Wheeler


Jeff Janis

Green Bay Packers

Janis Truthers Challenged

Browns officially signed former Packers’ WR Jeff Janis.
The combine superstar never amounted to anything in Green Bay, I highly doubt Cleveland is the place for him to finally break-out.

04/01/18, 10:50 AM CDT by Wheeler


Thomas Rawls

Seattle Seahawks

Jets Sign Rawls

Rawls had five RB1 games in 2015, one in 2016, and has been a disappointment since. He’s not worth your time in fantasy, but he could cause enough disruption in the Jets backfield to cut any upside we might have hoped for from Isaiah Crowell.

04/01/18, 10:48 AM CDT by Wheeler


Allen Robinson

Jacksonville Jaguars

Coo coo ca choo Mr. Robinson

Bears signed WR Allen Robinson, formerly of the Jaguars, to a three-year, $42 million contract.

This is a great move for Robinson and Chicago. Nagy’s offense and the young QB, Trubiski, should benefit Robinson at least as much as Bortles did, and Chicago gets the top WR in free agency.
Everyone on the team will be in a new scheme so there will be an adjustment, but as they start to gel we should see a big second half. Robinson’s recovery from a torn ACL doesn’t scare me away from drafting him in the late third/early fourth, his current MFL10 ADP is 43 overall while his Draft app ADP is 59.9. I expect Robinson to be somewhere in the range of 75 receptions, for 1100 yards and 8 TD’s.

03/24/18, 08:25 PM CDT by Wheeler


Sammy Watkins

Los Angeles Rams

KC Building Strong Air Attack

Chiefs signed Sammy Watkins, formerly of the Rams, to a three-year, $48 million contract.

I’m a big Sammy truther so getting him in the 5th or 6th round is a pure power move. His current Draft app ADP of 87.1 is an absolute steal, his MFL10 ADP of 69.5 is still a great value in my opinion. There are quite a few options for high targets in KC so I don’t expect him to see the 128 targets he saw his rookie year, but he should definitely see more than the 70 he saw last year. He’ll have an entire offseason to work with the near-rookie QB, and at age 25 he should have enough burst left to have a 70 catch, 1050 yd, 8TD line. For his career he has 16 receptions on 30 targets for 12 TD’s in the Red Zone, and 9 receptions on 13 targets, for 8 TD’s inside the opponents 10. He should be the exact WR the Chiefs need to get over the hump. As a team the Chiefs were 34/75 for 13 TD’s in the Red-Zone last year and 12/24 for 10 TD inside the 10.

03/24/18, 08:19 PM CDT by Wheeler


Kirk Cousins

Washington Redskins

Vikings Like That

Kirk Cousins plans to sign a three-year, fully-guaranteed contract from the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday. The deal is believed to be for around $86 million, and reports are it will be fully-guaranteed, a landmark for an NFL free agent.

Should be a lateral move for Kirk as far as fantasy, better WR’s, but fewer passes thrown in this offense. A healthy Dalvin Cook should be able to run out the clock if they are up in the second half of games and take the ball out of Cousins hands near the end zone. It should also help the overall efficiency of the offense so all in all it increases his floor, but cuts any garbage-time production we’ve seen with Washington. Kyle Rudolph becomes a big benefactor here, Cousins loves his TE, especially near the end-zone.

03/24/18, 08:16 PM CDT by Wheeler


Case Keenum

Minnesota Vikings

Denver Makes Case

Broncos signed QB Case Keenum, formerly of the Vikings, to a two-year, $36 million contract.

Well, I was hoping for more than a bridge QB for my favorite WR (D. Thomas), but this is a definite upgrade from the three stooges Denver put behind center last year.

03/24/18, 08:13 PM CDT by Wheeler


LeGarrette Blount

Philadelphia Eagles

Detroit Sparks Up Blount

The Lions signed free agent RB LeGarrette Blount to a 1-year deal worth $4.5M. He’s back with Matt Patricia, as the New England ties are strong.

The Lions have needed a true goal-line/power-back for years. I expect Blount to get between 150-200 touches and all the short-yardage carries. Detroit’s offense doesn’t really fit what Blount brings to the table, but I expect Patricia will have some influence over how the offense will operate from here-on-out.

03/24/18, 08:10 PM CDT by Wheeler


Cleveland Browns

Money Ball: The Sequel

Hate to start out the offseason with the Cleveland Browns, but they are makin’ moves!
Browns acquired: Tyrod Taylor, Jarvis Landry, Damarious Randall
Browns gave up: 2018 3rd-round pick (No. 65), 2018 4th-round pick, 2019 7th-round pick, DeShone Kizer

Building with experienced quality performers that have something to prove, by selling inconsequential draft picks is exactly what Sashi Brown was building up for. It’s a shame he won’t be around to reap the rewards, but these are quality moves for a win-now mentality.

03/09/18, 09:37 PM CST by Wheeler


Tyrod Taylor

Buffalo Bills

Hue Looks To TyGoat

Browns left tackle Joe Thomas, who's pondering his future, is a fan of Tyrod Taylor and has said so on the ThomaHawk Show podcast.

Tyrod is just one season removed (2016) from being the QB11 in average fantasy ppg, including seven 20+ point weeks and six 15+ point weeks. Given the current talent on the O-line and skill position weapons he could improve on those numbers. He has the potential to be this year’s Alex Smith, definitely heading my late-round (12+) QB picks now.

03/09/18, 09:32 PM CST by Wheeler


Deshone Kizer

Cleveland Browns

Packers Get In On The Fun

The Packers have traded for QB DeShone Kizer from the Browns to Green Bay.

This is the best possible scenario for Kizer, who was thrown into the fire last season. Getting the chance to develop and learn behind the best in the business is the best chance he has for longevity.

03/09/18, 09:30 PM CST by Wheeler


Torrey Smith

Philadelphia Eagles

On The Move Again

The Eagles trade WR Torrey Smith to the Panthers for CB Daryl Worley. Torrey Smith could fill the old Ted Ginn role which makes this fairly interesting. Stagg Party says it’s more of a boost for Cam than Torrey himself.

This is an absolute perfect fit, someone who isn’t going to demand the ball, but can take the top off a defense while McCaffrey, Olsen, and Cam work underneath. Torrey is looking like a great late-round flyer.

03/09/18, 09:28 PM CST by Wheeler


Players that are getting over drafted and have a chance to fall flat on their faces for fantasy football owners

Pop's Busts for Fantasy Football in 2017

Posted by d-Rx on 07/27/17

by   The Archer


More Articals



“If you align expectations with reality, you will never be disappointed.” ---Terrell Owens


Expectations can be a hard thing for any of us to live up to. The pressure that is put on us by family or Co-workers can bring even the strongest to their knees. What about expectation put on you by complete strangers, most of which you will never see or hear from. This is how as Fantasy Football enthusiast we put pressure on the young men of the NFL.

D-Rx has given me the task of developing an article about 2017 Sleepers and Bust. I am to come up with a list of players who will either exceed expectations or fall short of them. I am a positive guy and have no problem pointing out players who I feel will exceed their ADP, but what of the Bust. What makes a bust? Is it Injury, or the coaches, underperformance, or is it expectations. If it is expectations, then whose? Every year at the end of the season we as fantasy nation tattoo the scarlet letter on players butts, but were they a bust to the team or just ourselves. If these players are really such a bust then they should be cut by their teams, never to play another down in the NFL, but teams keep them around, why? The answer is EXPECTATIONS!! It was our expectations they fell short of we took them with a 1st round pick and they only rushed for 850 and 8 TDs. The team may be very content with that or they may say our line was banged up. My point is this. WE as FF Nation are the ones who really dictate who is a bust and who is not. Let that sink in for a second. Fantasy Football has grown to a point that we are starting to influence how players in the regular media are perceived.

My goal with this article will be to point out player that for whatever reason I feel will fall short of expectations. I will not try to point out players who have injury risk, you know who they are Watkins, Allen, Peterson. Instead, I will go on the assumption that each will stay healthy but underperform to their preseason ADP.  This portion of the article will be harder for me to write. I hope they all prove me wrong and live up to the expectations that FF nation has given them.


Your 2017 Unfulfilled Expectations

Jordan Howard RB CHI – I will always shy away from backs on bad teams and the Bears are a BAD team. The one thing I will say positive for him is he is on a team with a good line. PFF has the Bears as the #5 line in the league. He should increase his carries this season from the 252, but expect that 5.2 yards per to come down. The Bears will struggle to move the ball effectively and the number of Red Zone attempts required to be a Top Tier back will just not be there. I didn’t want to speculate on injuries but it is hard for any back who is a banger to stay healthy for an entire season and he is a physical player who doesn’t have the willingness or the ability to avoid big hits. If he plays to his ceiling he can finish as a top 12 back, but that is it. Can’t see him bringing 1st round value.

LaGarrette Blount RB PHI – How can 18 rushing TDs be a bust? Simple you go from the best team in the league to an also ran. Blount had 18 TDs yes, but only had a 3.9 yards per. Forget any points from the passing game, there are none with Blount. He had just 7 receptions in 2016. 2016 was far and away his best season. The question you must ask was he a product of game script. Pryor to 2016 his best season was 2010 when he had 1,007 and 6 TDs. That was the only time he cracked the 1000 yards mark until 2017. He is on his 6th team since joining the league. That alone should raise an eyebrow. He is a short yardage player who is not that particularly good at that. The Eagles only gave him a 1-year deal and it was only 900,00 base. They were not impressed with the 2016 numbers. Let me rephrase that I think the 2016 numbers was the ONLY reason he got a contract. He will fall back to what he has been is entire career and that is a backup who will give you about 400 yards and 4 TDs. His current ADP has him at 4.12 which should be your number 2. He is going ahead of guys like Cook, Anderson and Ingram.  Pyro has him more realistic at RB 35. This is probably the best he does.

Isaiah Crowell RB CLV – I am hesitant to put the Crow on this list, but going back to what I said in the opener. His expectations and ADP is climbing to a point that I think he could disappoint. I have been singing the praises of the Browns this off season. I have written articles on the job they have done and discipline they have shown. I believe I am not alone in my belief and therefore his ADP has climbed. He does have talent and the line is fantastic this year, PFF #2. There are a couple of things he will have to contend with. The first and most glaring is the Browns will not be in that many positive game scripts. I expect the Browns to win more this year but since they only won 1 last year any will be a large jump. My summation on the Crow I like him as a player, but not a 3rd rounder. Johnson, in my belief is a more talented back whose receiving ability will show when the Browns are down. Let Crow drop to like 5th if you can. If he goes higher take Duke later.

Jeremy Hill RB CIN – After flashing into the league in 2014 Hill has failed to live up to the rookie numbers of 1,124 and 9. His TD numbers have stayed consistent with 9, 11 and 9 but has failed to break 1000 since that rookie year. He has always had to split snaps with Gio taking almost all the passing work. This is a tough call for me to make on Hill. His ADP is 10.09 which puts him in a range that bust potential is diminished. My issue is this I believe the Bengals have hired his replacement. They took the troubled Joe Mixon, a back that has had well documented issues but on field talent is off the charts. Mixon is a complete back and with Gio still ailing Mixon should have a chance to shine earlier than expected and once he does could easily prove more valuable than either of these backs. I compare his situation to that of Jonathan Stewart, a veteran back who may have to deal with his replacement except Stewart is a better back than Hill and will not give up the starting spot as easy. Look for Hills roll to be reduced as the year drags on, not to mention all the Bengals backs will have to run behind a line that PFF has as 31st. Reminder if you forgot there are only 32 teams in the league.


Latavius Murray RB MIN – Murray finished the season with 788 and 12 behind the #2 line in the league by PFF. He now goes on to Minnesota who finished as the 29th ranked line. PFF preseason does have them improving this year but only up to 15th. This coupled with a much more talented backfield he should see a diminished work load. His current ADP is 8.03 which is ahead of more talented players player like Stewart, Dixon, and Rawls. Is there any indication that his numbers will be greater than what McKinnon and Asiata could produce, which was 941 and 8 combined. No way does he produce anything like that. All of the eyes will be on the rookie Cook this season. He will be the back to own in the Twin cities, but don’t get to worked up about him. The Vikes had just 9 rushing TDs. A number I don’t expect to significantly increase.

Ty Montgomery RB GB – Montgomery took over the roll as lead back in Green Bay out of necessity. Montgomery surprised in his new role rushing for 457 on just 6 games started. Therefore, his ADP has climbed to 4.09. Green Bay drafted a couple of backs this year notably Jamaal Williams. I can’t see Montgomery holding up as a 3 down back. I would expect the rook to get a larger load as the year moves on.

Brandin Cooks WR NE – Cooks left the Saints for a chance to get a ring with the Pats. Well that is what he might get but I doubt a 1000-yard season is in the books. With an ADP of 3.05 he is ahead of Watkins and D. Thomas. Clear number one guys for their respective teams. Cooks will have to compete with competition from Edleman, Gronk, White, Amendola, I could go on, but I think you get my point. He will be much more valuable for the Pats than he will be for Fantasy. No way does he return 3rd round value.

Allen Robinson WR JAC – Robinson had an ADP of 1.12 in 2016, and as we all know he failed to live up to that spot. He only managed to produce 883 and 6 TDs. My question is this, has anything changed this season to make us think he will be closer to 2015 numbers? The answer is no. He still should deal with Bortles and that throwing motion that looks like he is trying to kill a snake in a phone booth. In 2015, he had a ton of garbage time yards and TDs. This because the Jags were always behind and were chucking it to try and catch up. Their defense this year will be significantly better which means less garbage time. I expect numbers around what he had last year maybe a little better but not to the level of his current ADP of 4.02.

Tyreek Hill WR KC – Hill is fast and as quick as a hiccup, he is also small. 5’ 10” 185 lbs. Which means one big pop from a safety and good night sweet prince. Hill was a fantastic gimmick player last season. Taking Jet sweeps and pitches out of the backfield. Now with the departure of Maclin he will be forced into a new role. A role he has not proven he can handle. I am not saying he can’t excel at his role but what I am not willing to do is gamble on unproven commodity at his current ADP of 4.08 ahead of guys like Bryant, Crabtree and Landry. If he turns into the next coming of Antonio Brown then I guess Pop was wrong. Going on how I was burnt on Patterson a season or so ago I am just getting an over hyped vibe. I will own Hill in exactly one league this season. A keeper league for a 14th. At that price, I am ok with just about any upside guy. Hill was incredibly effective on limited touched he had 9 total TDs on just 85. With the increased load that rate is unsustainable.


Greg Olsen TE CAR – Here is my most controversial pick on the list, and the one that I hope I am wrong about. The Sabbath song “Changes” is going through my head and through the Queen City. Carolina will be make some changes to the way the conduct business this season. They drafted Stanford’s Christion McCaffrey and slot receiver Curtis Samual. They will be asking Newton to do something he has not done up this point. That is to run less and throw more short passes. Olsen was the leading receiver for Carolina last year with 1,073, but only managed 3 TDs. With the new additions, this year the numbers must take a dip, but a dip in the TE numbers are relative. There is not that large of a gap between the 4th TE and the 10th. Just 154 yards separated the 4th TE and the 10th last season. Just 9.6 yards a game. Olsen is a fantastic Tight End he is going at a ADP of 5.05 the 4th TE of the board. With all the uncertainty in Carolina this year I would be hard pressed to take Olsen that high.

Delanie Walker TE TEN – Walker has been Mariota go to guy for the past 2 seasons. Mariota’s rookie season he only had eyes for Walker with 133 targets for 94 receptions. That number dipped in 2016 to 102 and 65. What was the difference between the 2 years? Competent receivers and Mariota confidence. Walker is no spring chicken either at 32. Again, it is hard to call someone a bust at TE when all the starters barring injury will be close at season end. Walker is going at TE 8 currently but I could easily see him slipping to like 12. The Titans will take a step forward this season and should see some of those receptions going to rookie Corey Davis, but this is a zero-sum game. When you only have X amount of receptions to go around they must come from somewhere.

Cam Newton QB CAR -  I am not sure he will really be considered a bust, this is mainly for those who still think he might rush for 5 or 6 hundred yards rushing. I will say up front I am not a big Newton Fan, too much preening for my taste, but I am old so maybe the kids like it. I just say less dance moves and more reading defenses. Newton finished with 3,509 passing and added 359 on the ground. What was the big dip from the 2015 MVP season? The TDs he only had 24 combined last season compared to 45 his MVP season. He was considered a bust last season when he was being take in the 1st or 2nd rounds. This season his ADP is 7.08 and I would suspect in my neck of the woods even higher. Seems a little steep considering he came in at 21. When you look at his number over the past few seasons he was not that far off what he has done. 2015 was a magical year when everything went right. Newton when he runs can give you top 8 QB numbers but he is being asked to dial that back, and his passing number by themselves will not bring him in as a QB 1. Check back in a week and I will let you know what I see at Panthers Camp.

Matt Ryan QB ATL – Ryan like Newton the year before had a magical year. Everything went right and the Falcons played lights out and should have won a Superbowl. This year their OC Kyle Shanahan has moved to the far coast to take over the 49ers. All the offensive weapons are still in place except for the play caller. With the bad taste that loss put in their mouths I can see regression all over the place. Ryan is coming off at the 5th QB way too rich for a player whose best finish was 300 yards less than last season. He had his best TD number last season as well. If you are betting on Ryan to put up those same kinds of numbers you are setting yourself up for disappointment.

Again, it is my hope I am wrong about these players. I hope all of them flourish in 2017. It is hard to live up to expectations, but when you can exceed what is expected of you than you can deal with the times when they come, and they all come for all of us at some point.





By Pop's


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