March 21, 2018


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Cleveland Browns

Money Ball: The Sequel

Hate to start out the offseason with the Cleveland Browns, but they are makin’ moves!
Browns acquired: Tyrod Taylor, Jarvis Landry, Damarious Randall
Browns gave up: 2018 3rd-round pick (No. 65), 2018 4th-round pick, 2019 7th-round pick, DeShone Kizer

Building with experienced quality performers that have something to prove, by selling inconsequential draft picks is exactly what Sashi Brown was building up for. It’s a shame he won’t be around to reap the rewards, but these are quality moves for a win-now mentality.

03/09/18, 09:37 PM CST by Wheeler


Tyrod Taylor

Buffalo Bills

Hue Looks To TyGoat

Browns left tackle Joe Thomas, who's pondering his future, is a fan of Tyrod Taylor and has said so on the ThomaHawk Show podcast.

Tyrod is just one season removed (2016) from being the QB11 in average fantasy ppg, including seven 20+ point weeks and six 15+ point weeks. Given the current talent on the O-line and skill position weapons he could improve on those numbers. He has the potential to be this year’s Alex Smith, definitely heading my late-round (12+) QB picks now.

03/09/18, 09:32 PM CST by Wheeler


Deshone Kizer

Cleveland Browns

Packers Get In On The Fun

The Packers have traded for QB DeShone Kizer from the Browns to Green Bay.

This is the best possible scenario for Kizer, who was thrown into the fire last season. Getting the chance to develop and learn behind the best in the business is the best chance he has for longevity.

03/09/18, 09:30 PM CST by Wheeler


Torrey Smith

Philadelphia Eagles

On The Move Again

The Eagles trade WR Torrey Smith to the Panthers for CB Daryl Worley. Torrey Smith could fill the old Ted Ginn role which makes this fairly interesting. Stagg Party says it’s more of a boost for Cam than Torrey himself.

This is an absolute perfect fit, someone who isn’t going to demand the ball, but can take the top off a defense while McCaffrey, Olsen, and Cam work underneath. Torrey is looking like a great late-round flyer.

03/09/18, 09:28 PM CST by Wheeler


DeMarco Murray

Tennessee Titans

Henry Hype Train Has Clear Track

DeMarco Murray was released by the Titans.
No surprise here, expect Derick Henry to be a lead back with 250+ touches, but they will bring in someone that will play the third-down, pass-catching role out of the backfield. I wouldn’t be surprised if they sign someone like Jerick McKinnon or Rex Burkhead, or even Darren Sproles or Charles Sims. There are also plenty of options in the NFL draft, Henry won’t be a true “Bell Cow.”

03/09/18, 09:17 PM CST by Wheeler


Marquise Goodwin

San Francisco 49ers

The Name Says It All

Marquise Goodwin and the 49ers have agreed to a 3yr extension worth $20.3M & 10M guaranteed.

Shanahan has found his big-play threat at a reasonable price. Goodwin caught 56 balls for 962 yards last season, but only had two TD’s. None of his six longest plays (33+ yards) were from Garoppollo so it leads me to believe they will still be looking for a top of the line WR, even with Garcon coming back from injury.

03/09/18, 09:15 PM CST by Wheeler


Jonathan Stewart

Carolina Panthers

The Search Is On

Former Panthers RB Jonathan Stewart is visiting the Seahawks today, source says. Seattle is looking at all options to get that ground game going.

This would be an interesting landing spot for Stewart, but no RB available in free agency is going to do spit behind this Swiss-cheese O-line.

03/09/18, 09:13 PM CST by Wheeler


New York Giants

Building Blocks

NFL draft insider Tony Pauline says "belief" around the league is free agent OG Andrew Norwell signing with the Giants is "a done deal."
The top guard on the market, Norwell was one of ex-Panthers GM Dave Gettleman's most-prized discoveries as an undrafted free agent. Gettleman now runs the Giants, who have needs all over the line.

I like anything the Giants can do to repair this disheveled O-line. Building a line through free-agency is almost always a better option than through the draft, but I would still like to see them trade back in the draft and grab Quenton Nelson, OG, Notre Dame.

03/09/18, 09:11 PM CST by Wheeler


Dion Lewis

New England Patriots

Pass Catching Backs Set To Dominate

On first downs this year, the Eagles allow a 65% success rate on RB-passes. That ranks 29th in the league. Dion Lewis averaged 6.5 YPA and a 59% success rate, and James White averaged 7.7 YPA and a 58% success rate on first down passes this season.

02/04/18, 10:36 AM CST by Wheeler


James White

New England Patriots

Pass Catching Backs Set To Dominate

On first downs this year, the Eagles allow a 65% success rate on RB-passes. That ranks 29th in the league. Dion Lewis averaged 6.5 YPA and a 59% success rate, and James White averaged 7.7 YPA and a 58% success rate on first down passes this season.

02/04/18, 10:36 AM CST by Wheeler


Philadelphia Eagles

Attack With 11

The Patriots defense is particularly susceptible to runs out of 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRs), allowing a 61% success rate and 6.0 YPC to offenses when rushing from this formation. The Eagles are one of the most run heavy teams from 11 personnel, recording nearly 60% of their total rushes from 11 formation. The Patriots haven’t faced teams like this often, the teams the Pats faced in the playoffs, Tennessee and Jacksonville were last and 5th lowest respectively rushing from 11 formation. This is a massive advantage for the Eagles if they recognize it and use it.

02/04/18, 10:32 AM CST by Wheeler


Jay Ajayi

Philadelphia Eagles

To The Left, To The Left

New England started the season off with one of the worst rush defenses in the entire league, but things have really shifted over the second half of the year. Prior to their Week 9 bye, the Patriots had allowed a 44.70% Success Rate to opposing running backs, the third-worst in the league. That's dropped to about 38% since, and they've had the fifth-best rush defense by Success Rate since Week 12. New England's especially been good at stopping runs to the left side of the field, which just so happens to be where Jay Ajayi has really made a mark since joining the Eagles in Week 9.
I don’t look for Ajayi to make his mark in this game. I know it’s a lazy narrative, but a Blount revenge game seems to really be in the cards here.

02/04/18, 10:30 AM CST by Wheeler


Zach Ertz

Philadelphia Eagles

Pats Could Hit'em Where It Ertz

Zach Ertz leads the Eagles in targets (39) with Foles under center, drawing at least eight in three of their four full games together. Keyed by FS Devin McCourty and SS Patrick Chung, the Pats allowed the NFL’s tenth-fewest receiving yards to tight ends (720) this season, only four opposing tight ends have reached 50 yards through 18 Patriots games.
If Foles continues to pepper Ertz with targets we could see a big game for Chung or McCourty.

02/04/18, 10:25 AM CST by Wheeler


Nelson Agholor

Philadelphia Eagles

Plenty Of Fluids

The Eagles’ biggest pass-catcher personnel mismatch is Nelson Agholor against Patriots slot corner Eric Rowe. Rowe can struggle with quick change of direction, Agholor’s foremost strength. Agholor runs 87% of his routes in the slot, and New England allowed solid games to Eric Decker (6/85/0) in the Divisional Round, and Allen Hurns (6/80/0) in the AFC title game. Agholor still ranks second behind Ertz in Foles targets (29), but has had a surprisingly quiet playoffs with just 7 targets.
This will have to change if the Eagles plan on moving the ball, but Agholor has been sick with the flu for the past few days. He received intravenous fluids Saturday and will play, but it doesn’t sound like he’ll be 100%.

02/04/18, 10:22 AM CST by Wheeler


Danny Amendola

New England Patriots

Danny Playoffs

The Eagles finished second worst this season in percentage of passing yards allowed coming after the catch. Philadelphia struggled on short and intermediate throws this season, specifically to the middle of the field, where they allowed the third-most yards per passing play in the league. Brady was a top-five player in passer rating on these types of tosses. Amendola's been a monster in this year's playoffs for New England, grabbing hold of 22 targets in just two contests, accounting for over 24% of New England's targets. He should continue to play a role on Super Bowl Sunday.

02/04/18, 10:20 AM CST by Wheeler


Rex Burkhead

New England Patriots

Rex Back

Despite being listed as questionable for Sunday’s AFC Championship game vs. Jaguars, it appears as though Patriots’ RB Rex Burkhead will play.
This will cut into the 13 targets Amendola saw last week.

01/20/18, 10:49 PM CST by Wheeler


Adam Thielen

Minnesota Vikings

Making The Wright Move?

Adam Thielen (back) is questionable for Sunday's NFC Championship game against the Eagles.
He's fully expected to play after limited practices the last two days. He probably won’t be 100 percent so if you’re putting in a line-up you might want to pivot to Diggs or save some money and drop down to Jarius Wright who grabbed three-of-six targets for 56 yards Sunday and has established himself as the number three WR in this offense.

01/20/18, 10:31 PM CST by Wheeler


Leonard Fournette

Jacksonville Jaguars

Ankle In Question Again

Fournette aggravated his ankle in the Divisional Round and was limited early in the week. He was left off the injury report for Sunday's AFC Championship game. Fournette saw a heavy workload last week getting 27 touches in Jacksonville's upset of the Steelers. T.J. Yeldon rushed five times for 20 yards and a touchdown and caught 3-of-3 targets for 57 yards. If you’re looking for a cheaper option I expect we see Yeldon to be used to keep Fournette from aggravating the injury early.

01/20/18, 10:23 PM CST by Wheeler


Tom Brady

New England Patriots

Give Him A Hand

Reports are that Tom Brady threw the ball "incredibly well" during Friday's practice. He is listed as questionable for Sunday's AFC Championship game against Jacksonville, but I don’t think there was any real doubt that he’d play. Keep in mind what D-Rex spoke about on the Pyro Podcast 303 andScott Barrett tweeted about Brady last week:
Weeks 1-10: 21.2 fantasy points per game, 110.9 passer rating
Weeks 11-17: 14.2 fantasy points per game, 87.3 passer rating
The hand injury on top of his achilles injury, as well as going against the Jags #1 rated pass defense could keep the Patriots attack grounded this week. Lewis is the obvious play, but if Burkhead (Q) comes back it could be he or White that steals the show.

01/20/18, 10:22 PM CST by Wheeler


Tom Brady

New England Patriots

Tom Still Terrific?

Tom Brady was first listed on the team's injury report with an Achilles injury heading in to Week 11.
Weeks 1-10: 21.2 fantasy points per game, 110.9 passer rating
Weeks 11-17: 14.2 fantasy points per game, 87.3 passer rating

Fantasy Goo: This should line up for a good week for Brady, Tennessee is 8th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, but just below average against QB’s. The Patriots are 13 point favorites on Saturday Night, if Brady doesn’t do it at home in prime-time then something is wrong.

01/09/18, 07:30 PM CST by Wheeler


Alvin Kamara

New Orleans Saints

Primary Role Shifting

Saints have run 5 times at/inside opponent's 5-yard line over last 4 weeks (including playoffs):
Alvin Kamara 3 carries, Zach Line 1, Mark Ingram 1. Kamara was in on all 3 Saints run plays at/inside 5 vs. Panthers last week, including Line's 1-yard TD run.

Fantasy Goo: If you’re trying to decide between Kamara and Ingram for the playoff run, Kamara looks to be the much better play.

01/09/18, 07:20 PM CST by Wheeler


Players that are getting over drafted and have a chance to fall flat on their faces for fantasy football owners

Pop's Busts for Fantasy Football in 2017

Posted by d-Rx on 07/27/17

by   The Archer


More Articals



“If you align expectations with reality, you will never be disappointed.” ---Terrell Owens


Expectations can be a hard thing for any of us to live up to. The pressure that is put on us by family or Co-workers can bring even the strongest to their knees. What about expectation put on you by complete strangers, most of which you will never see or hear from. This is how as Fantasy Football enthusiast we put pressure on the young men of the NFL.

D-Rx has given me the task of developing an article about 2017 Sleepers and Bust. I am to come up with a list of players who will either exceed expectations or fall short of them. I am a positive guy and have no problem pointing out players who I feel will exceed their ADP, but what of the Bust. What makes a bust? Is it Injury, or the coaches, underperformance, or is it expectations. If it is expectations, then whose? Every year at the end of the season we as fantasy nation tattoo the scarlet letter on players butts, but were they a bust to the team or just ourselves. If these players are really such a bust then they should be cut by their teams, never to play another down in the NFL, but teams keep them around, why? The answer is EXPECTATIONS!! It was our expectations they fell short of we took them with a 1st round pick and they only rushed for 850 and 8 TDs. The team may be very content with that or they may say our line was banged up. My point is this. WE as FF Nation are the ones who really dictate who is a bust and who is not. Let that sink in for a second. Fantasy Football has grown to a point that we are starting to influence how players in the regular media are perceived.

My goal with this article will be to point out player that for whatever reason I feel will fall short of expectations. I will not try to point out players who have injury risk, you know who they are Watkins, Allen, Peterson. Instead, I will go on the assumption that each will stay healthy but underperform to their preseason ADP.  This portion of the article will be harder for me to write. I hope they all prove me wrong and live up to the expectations that FF nation has given them.


Your 2017 Unfulfilled Expectations

Jordan Howard RB CHI – I will always shy away from backs on bad teams and the Bears are a BAD team. The one thing I will say positive for him is he is on a team with a good line. PFF has the Bears as the #5 line in the league. He should increase his carries this season from the 252, but expect that 5.2 yards per to come down. The Bears will struggle to move the ball effectively and the number of Red Zone attempts required to be a Top Tier back will just not be there. I didn’t want to speculate on injuries but it is hard for any back who is a banger to stay healthy for an entire season and he is a physical player who doesn’t have the willingness or the ability to avoid big hits. If he plays to his ceiling he can finish as a top 12 back, but that is it. Can’t see him bringing 1st round value.

LaGarrette Blount RB PHI – How can 18 rushing TDs be a bust? Simple you go from the best team in the league to an also ran. Blount had 18 TDs yes, but only had a 3.9 yards per. Forget any points from the passing game, there are none with Blount. He had just 7 receptions in 2016. 2016 was far and away his best season. The question you must ask was he a product of game script. Pryor to 2016 his best season was 2010 when he had 1,007 and 6 TDs. That was the only time he cracked the 1000 yards mark until 2017. He is on his 6th team since joining the league. That alone should raise an eyebrow. He is a short yardage player who is not that particularly good at that. The Eagles only gave him a 1-year deal and it was only 900,00 base. They were not impressed with the 2016 numbers. Let me rephrase that I think the 2016 numbers was the ONLY reason he got a contract. He will fall back to what he has been is entire career and that is a backup who will give you about 400 yards and 4 TDs. His current ADP has him at 4.12 which should be your number 2. He is going ahead of guys like Cook, Anderson and Ingram.  Pyro has him more realistic at RB 35. This is probably the best he does.

Isaiah Crowell RB CLV – I am hesitant to put the Crow on this list, but going back to what I said in the opener. His expectations and ADP is climbing to a point that I think he could disappoint. I have been singing the praises of the Browns this off season. I have written articles on the job they have done and discipline they have shown. I believe I am not alone in my belief and therefore his ADP has climbed. He does have talent and the line is fantastic this year, PFF #2. There are a couple of things he will have to contend with. The first and most glaring is the Browns will not be in that many positive game scripts. I expect the Browns to win more this year but since they only won 1 last year any will be a large jump. My summation on the Crow I like him as a player, but not a 3rd rounder. Johnson, in my belief is a more talented back whose receiving ability will show when the Browns are down. Let Crow drop to like 5th if you can. If he goes higher take Duke later.

Jeremy Hill RB CIN – After flashing into the league in 2014 Hill has failed to live up to the rookie numbers of 1,124 and 9. His TD numbers have stayed consistent with 9, 11 and 9 but has failed to break 1000 since that rookie year. He has always had to split snaps with Gio taking almost all the passing work. This is a tough call for me to make on Hill. His ADP is 10.09 which puts him in a range that bust potential is diminished. My issue is this I believe the Bengals have hired his replacement. They took the troubled Joe Mixon, a back that has had well documented issues but on field talent is off the charts. Mixon is a complete back and with Gio still ailing Mixon should have a chance to shine earlier than expected and once he does could easily prove more valuable than either of these backs. I compare his situation to that of Jonathan Stewart, a veteran back who may have to deal with his replacement except Stewart is a better back than Hill and will not give up the starting spot as easy. Look for Hills roll to be reduced as the year drags on, not to mention all the Bengals backs will have to run behind a line that PFF has as 31st. Reminder if you forgot there are only 32 teams in the league.


Latavius Murray RB MIN – Murray finished the season with 788 and 12 behind the #2 line in the league by PFF. He now goes on to Minnesota who finished as the 29th ranked line. PFF preseason does have them improving this year but only up to 15th. This coupled with a much more talented backfield he should see a diminished work load. His current ADP is 8.03 which is ahead of more talented players player like Stewart, Dixon, and Rawls. Is there any indication that his numbers will be greater than what McKinnon and Asiata could produce, which was 941 and 8 combined. No way does he produce anything like that. All of the eyes will be on the rookie Cook this season. He will be the back to own in the Twin cities, but don’t get to worked up about him. The Vikes had just 9 rushing TDs. A number I don’t expect to significantly increase.

Ty Montgomery RB GB – Montgomery took over the roll as lead back in Green Bay out of necessity. Montgomery surprised in his new role rushing for 457 on just 6 games started. Therefore, his ADP has climbed to 4.09. Green Bay drafted a couple of backs this year notably Jamaal Williams. I can’t see Montgomery holding up as a 3 down back. I would expect the rook to get a larger load as the year moves on.

Brandin Cooks WR NE – Cooks left the Saints for a chance to get a ring with the Pats. Well that is what he might get but I doubt a 1000-yard season is in the books. With an ADP of 3.05 he is ahead of Watkins and D. Thomas. Clear number one guys for their respective teams. Cooks will have to compete with competition from Edleman, Gronk, White, Amendola, I could go on, but I think you get my point. He will be much more valuable for the Pats than he will be for Fantasy. No way does he return 3rd round value.

Allen Robinson WR JAC – Robinson had an ADP of 1.12 in 2016, and as we all know he failed to live up to that spot. He only managed to produce 883 and 6 TDs. My question is this, has anything changed this season to make us think he will be closer to 2015 numbers? The answer is no. He still should deal with Bortles and that throwing motion that looks like he is trying to kill a snake in a phone booth. In 2015, he had a ton of garbage time yards and TDs. This because the Jags were always behind and were chucking it to try and catch up. Their defense this year will be significantly better which means less garbage time. I expect numbers around what he had last year maybe a little better but not to the level of his current ADP of 4.02.

Tyreek Hill WR KC – Hill is fast and as quick as a hiccup, he is also small. 5’ 10” 185 lbs. Which means one big pop from a safety and good night sweet prince. Hill was a fantastic gimmick player last season. Taking Jet sweeps and pitches out of the backfield. Now with the departure of Maclin he will be forced into a new role. A role he has not proven he can handle. I am not saying he can’t excel at his role but what I am not willing to do is gamble on unproven commodity at his current ADP of 4.08 ahead of guys like Bryant, Crabtree and Landry. If he turns into the next coming of Antonio Brown then I guess Pop was wrong. Going on how I was burnt on Patterson a season or so ago I am just getting an over hyped vibe. I will own Hill in exactly one league this season. A keeper league for a 14th. At that price, I am ok with just about any upside guy. Hill was incredibly effective on limited touched he had 9 total TDs on just 85. With the increased load that rate is unsustainable.


Greg Olsen TE CAR – Here is my most controversial pick on the list, and the one that I hope I am wrong about. The Sabbath song “Changes” is going through my head and through the Queen City. Carolina will be make some changes to the way the conduct business this season. They drafted Stanford’s Christion McCaffrey and slot receiver Curtis Samual. They will be asking Newton to do something he has not done up this point. That is to run less and throw more short passes. Olsen was the leading receiver for Carolina last year with 1,073, but only managed 3 TDs. With the new additions, this year the numbers must take a dip, but a dip in the TE numbers are relative. There is not that large of a gap between the 4th TE and the 10th. Just 154 yards separated the 4th TE and the 10th last season. Just 9.6 yards a game. Olsen is a fantastic Tight End he is going at a ADP of 5.05 the 4th TE of the board. With all the uncertainty in Carolina this year I would be hard pressed to take Olsen that high.

Delanie Walker TE TEN – Walker has been Mariota go to guy for the past 2 seasons. Mariota’s rookie season he only had eyes for Walker with 133 targets for 94 receptions. That number dipped in 2016 to 102 and 65. What was the difference between the 2 years? Competent receivers and Mariota confidence. Walker is no spring chicken either at 32. Again, it is hard to call someone a bust at TE when all the starters barring injury will be close at season end. Walker is going at TE 8 currently but I could easily see him slipping to like 12. The Titans will take a step forward this season and should see some of those receptions going to rookie Corey Davis, but this is a zero-sum game. When you only have X amount of receptions to go around they must come from somewhere.

Cam Newton QB CAR -  I am not sure he will really be considered a bust, this is mainly for those who still think he might rush for 5 or 6 hundred yards rushing. I will say up front I am not a big Newton Fan, too much preening for my taste, but I am old so maybe the kids like it. I just say less dance moves and more reading defenses. Newton finished with 3,509 passing and added 359 on the ground. What was the big dip from the 2015 MVP season? The TDs he only had 24 combined last season compared to 45 his MVP season. He was considered a bust last season when he was being take in the 1st or 2nd rounds. This season his ADP is 7.08 and I would suspect in my neck of the woods even higher. Seems a little steep considering he came in at 21. When you look at his number over the past few seasons he was not that far off what he has done. 2015 was a magical year when everything went right. Newton when he runs can give you top 8 QB numbers but he is being asked to dial that back, and his passing number by themselves will not bring him in as a QB 1. Check back in a week and I will let you know what I see at Panthers Camp.

Matt Ryan QB ATL – Ryan like Newton the year before had a magical year. Everything went right and the Falcons played lights out and should have won a Superbowl. This year their OC Kyle Shanahan has moved to the far coast to take over the 49ers. All the offensive weapons are still in place except for the play caller. With the bad taste that loss put in their mouths I can see regression all over the place. Ryan is coming off at the 5th QB way too rich for a player whose best finish was 300 yards less than last season. He had his best TD number last season as well. If you are betting on Ryan to put up those same kinds of numbers you are setting yourself up for disappointment.

Again, it is my hope I am wrong about these players. I hope all of them flourish in 2017. It is hard to live up to expectations, but when you can exceed what is expected of you than you can deal with the times when they come, and they all come for all of us at some point.





By Pop's


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