August 17, 2018


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Cooper Kupp

Los Angeles Rams

Mr. Cooper's neighborhood

Cooper Kupp was 4th in the NFL last year in red-zone targets. Kupp and Goff have the most chemistry of all the receivers on the team as Goff targeted him more than anyone last year. Everyone is expecting Cooks to lead these receivers in points this year, but Kupp will be the receiver to own. Sammy Watkins had eight red-zone touchdowns last year. Cooks is not a red-zone target receiver, so Kupp should see more targets and could sneak into the WR2 with massive upside.

08/13/18, 09:39 PM CDT by C-wags


Jerick McKinnon

Minnesota Vikings

The Jet is set to take off!

Mckinnon has been a super divisive player this offseason. Especially after the first preseason game where he didn't amass many yards and the following day he injured himself in practice. I constantly hear people question his ability to carry the ball 200+ times or that he can’t run between the tackles, or he’s unproven in a lead role. This is all NONSENSE and you shouldn’t believe any of it. Shanahan had his pick of players that he could’ve signed instead of Mckinnon, including Dion Lewis, Carlos Hyde, or drafting a rookie. He chose Mckinnon cause he felt he fit his offensive system in the same way that Devante Freeman fit his scheme. The 49ers just signed Alfred Morris today as a safety net, but I’m taking all the Mckinnon I can this year. I see him carrying the ball 205car/950yds/6td while also amassing 60rec/500yds/5td making him an RB1 this year. Don't be scared, and steal him away from people that are.

08/13/18, 09:24 PM CDT by C-wags


Marquise Goodwin

San Francisco 49ers

Too good, too fast

Marquiae goodwin has been targeted like a number one in camp. With Pierre Garcon likely squaring off with one of the toughest schedules against number one DBs, Goodwin could break out even more than he did last year. I wouldn't put it past him to put up T.Y HIlton numbers this year. Pick him up in the 6th and 7th round and pile up the points.

08/13/18, 09:11 PM CDT by C-wags


Jay Ajayi

Philadelphia Eagles

Ready To Fly

In 2016 Ajayi racked up 1272 yards on 260 carries and 8 TD’s and finished as the RB11 in both standard and PPR scoring. Last year Miami ran him out of town when he struggled in an anemic offense. He was not heavily used when he got to Philly, but his touches did increase every week until the Superbowl. He was also hyper efficient gaining 5.8 yards per carry and 9.1 yards per reception. Despite the general perception Clements usage went down with Ajayi’s arrival, even with Smallwood going down with injury. The Eagles have the number 1 offensive line as graded by PFF, and 18 RB targets and 192 carries vacated. Ajayi is a safe pick in the fourth round and a steal in the fifth.

08/02/18, 06:08 PM CDT by Wheeler


Jimmy Graham

Green Bay Packers

Split Wide, Back in Stride

He is coming off a season that produced only 57 receptions for 520 yards, his fewest since his rookie season. With that said, Graham remains a big-time weapon in the red zone. He led the league last year with 27 targets in the region, which led to 10 touchdowns. You can bet Rodgers and play-caller Mike McCarthy will be utilizing his skills early and often when knocking on the door of the end zone.
Look for McCarthy to use a variety of personnel groupings with his new tight end group and expect to see Graham split out wide as a receiver much more than as a traditional in-line tight end.

This goes right along with what I was saying on Pyro podcast 308. I expect Graham to be used as a wide receiver and not a tight end. When Graham was negotiating his contract in his last season in New Orleans he wanted to be paid on scale with wide receivers because he rarely lined-up as an in-line tight end. When Seattle paid him, he did whatever they asked, and they asked him to block more. He was out for five games that year, but averaged one less reception per game and only scored two TD’s, after having at least nine TD’s in the previous four years. Overall Graham saw about 25% fewer targets while in Seattle compared to New Orleans and his fantasy numbers reflect it. I see Green Bay using him more like he was used in New Orleans, and even though he has obviously lost a step or two I see him as the major replacement for the Jordy Nelson targets.

07/22/18, 01:41 PM CDT by Wheeler


Aaron Jones

Green Bay Packers

Cream Rises To The Top

Jones’ 5.55 YPC on first- and second-down carries trailed only Alvin Kamara (6.24) for best in the league last year. Jamaal Williams averaged 3.80 YPC on first- and second-down in 2017.

He’s slid two rounds since the announcement of his two game suspension, he is a screaming value if you can get him in the ninth round. We already knew he was going to be competing in a crowded backfield so missing two games really shouldn’t be a big hit to his overall production. The likelihood of either of the other two backs taking over the role is slim, Jones should be able to carve out 10 touches a game when he gets back with fresh legs. They are all high risk for injuries so I’m hoping this added rest will help Jones in the long run.

07/21/18, 06:51 PM CDT by Wheeler


Nelson Agholor

Philadelphia Eagles

Solidified Role

In 2017, Nelson Agholor had 62 recs, 768 yds, 9 TDs and 7 games of WR2 or better. There is no reason he wouldn't maintain this output, even with additions in the offense. Agholor had to carve out a role for himself and beat out incumbent Jordan Matthews. This year he'll be the main slot receiver and have an established role from the start.

07/21/18, 06:49 PM CDT by Wheeler


Sterling Shepard

New York Giants

Buying The Slot Receiver in a Shurmur Offense

Sterling Shepard is currently 24 years old with a 124/1,414/10 career line, in two seasons. He finished 2017 as the WR42 in 11 games (WR22 in FP/G) with only a 13.9% target share. He finished 2016 as the WR36 as a rookie. He's currently being drafted as the WR42 in MFL10’s.

Shepard does see more targets (+2.7), get more receptions (+2.3), more yards (+28), and get about three more PPR points per game when Beckham is out. But he still averages over 11 PPR points per game when he is playing. Apparently Shepard is more open in the end-zone when Beckham is playing, as he averages three times as many TD’s when they are both playing.

07/21/18, 06:47 PM CDT by Wheeler


Allen Hurns

Jacksonville Jaguars

Plenty of Targets in Dallas

He’s been hampered by injuries over the past couple of years, but when he has stayed healthy and gotten the targets he has been successful. His best season was in 2015, he had 105 Targets for 64 Receptions at 1031 Yards for 10 TDs, that’s 16.11 Yards Per Reception and a 61% Catch Rate coming from Blake Bortles. He finished as the WR14 in Standard Scoring and WR18 in PPR.

He's an amazing value in the 11th round of current best-ball drafts.

07/21/18, 06:41 PM CDT by Wheeler


Eric Ebron

Detroit Lions

Second Team Breath's New Life Into TE

Outside Brady, Luck is the only other QB to support 2 TE's, both Fleener and Allen had 8 TD's with Luck. Frank Reich runs 2 TE sets very successfully - see: 2018 Eagles. TE1's for Coach Reich have never finished worse than 12th. Yes, Doyle would seem like the obvious choice after last season, but that was with Brissett who needed a quick dump off outlet. Luck isn't a check-down machine.

Eric Ebron has lined up "everywhere" in the Colts offense. And the new tight end already is beginning to feel at home in Indianapolis. Without a strong WR2, Ebron could see a large number of targets. The Colt's line-up in two TE sets more than any other team in the NFL.

07/21/18, 06:36 PM CDT by Wheeler


Matt Breida

San Francisco 49ers

Filling Coleman Role

“One guy who stood out at Niners practice to me was RB Matt Breida. No one talks about him, but the dude is gonna get some run this year. Fast downhill player.”

This is just some more camp hype from a beat reporter, but if they don’t get another running back through trade or free-agency Brieda is going to see plenty of touches to pay off being picked in the 15th round of fantasy drafts. McKinnon has never had over 205 touches in a season, that leaves plenty of opportunity in a Shanahan offense.

07/21/18, 06:28 PM CDT by Wheeler


LeSean McCoy

Buffalo Bills

McCoy starring down 30 with uncertainty

LeSean McCoy, despite ending the year as the #7 fantasy running back in standard leagues was a slight disappointment for fantasy owners last year. McCoy played in all 16 regular season games, but only cracked 100 yards rushing 4 times, and averaged 4.0 yards per rush, which was 23rd in the NFL. That all happened with a formidable QB with a scrambling ability that defenses had to respect, presumably allowing McCoy some more room before tacklers ascended.
The Bills have the least sexy QB situation in the entire NFL in my opinion. With Tyrod Taylor at the helm for most of the season last year, the bills had the 31st passing offense. None of the QBs on the Bills roster are considered mobile and without a wide receiver on their roster worthy of drafting in any fantasy formats, defenses can stack the box against McCoy. McCoy will be overused, underperform and probably get hurt because of it. McCoy’s ADP is in the second round, but wouldn’t touch him until the fourth or beginning of the fifth round.

06/29/18, 12:42 PM CDT by C-wags


Tyreek Hill

Kansas City Chiefs

Hill lookin' busty with chiefs new look.

Tyreek Hill had a great 2017, amounting 75 receptions for 1183 yards and 7 touchdowns in 15 games. He’s currently being drafted in the middle of the third round in standard leagues, which would appear to be a great value. However, with promoted RB coach Eric Bieniemy presumably in-line to be the primary play caller, a new QB, Travis Kelce receiving the #1 target share and the addition of Sammy Watkins, I expect Hill’s numbers to decrease dramatically.
I believe Hill to be more of a boom or bust player this year. There’s no denying his break-away speed and ability to separate from defenders, and with Mahomes cannon of an arm, I expect them to connect deep on occasion. However, I believe Sammy Watkins to be the more complete receiver and likely to take more of the target share from Hill. Bundled with the change in offensive strategy toward the end of last year to run the ball more, the change to a young QB presumably resulting in a more conservative game plan, I see a major decline in the amount of touches Hill will get and see him as more of a 5-6 round flex play guy.

06/21/18, 10:54 AM CDT by C-wags


Eric Ebron

Detroit Lions

Ebron Could Use Some Luck

Colts signed TE Eric Ebron, formerly of the Lions, to a two-year contract. Coach Frank Reich called Ebron an "elite tight end."

The last time we saw Andrew Luck healthy (2016), the Colts used 2+ TE sets at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL and had the 6th-highest target share to TEs.

04/01/18, 11:32 AM CDT by Wheeler


Carlos Hyde

San Francisco 49ers

Hyde and Seek

Browns agreed to terms with RB Carlos Hyde, formerly of the 49ers, on a three-year, $15 million contract.

Obtaining Hyde has several trickle-down effects; first it replaces Crowell who signed with the Jets, it probably diminishes Duke Johnson’s value a bit. Hyde is a better all-around back than Crowell was and will certainly take over the goal-line work seeing that he’s got 20+ pounds on Duke. It also reduces the likelihood that Cleveland takes Saquon Barkley with the 4th pick in the draft. They will most likely look to draft a defensive player (Chubb) or trade down again.

04/01/18, 11:28 AM CDT by Wheeler


Jerick McKinnon

Minnesota Vikings

McKinnon Goes West For Gold-Rush

49ers agreed to terms with RB Jerick McKinnon, formerly of the Vikings, on a four-year, $30 million contract.

McKinnon averaged a ho-hum 3.8 yards a carry for the Vikings and scored three rushing touchdowns. By contrast, San Francisco's former lead runner, Carlos Hyde, averaged 3.9 yards an attempt in 2017 and had eight rushing touchdowns.

It appears as though Shanahan is enamored with McKinnon's athletic metrics, but I'm not so sure he was "pounding the table" to get him. This move could push the Niner's to cut Joe Williams.

04/01/18, 11:12 AM CDT by Wheeler


Mike Wallace

Baltimore Ravens

Eagles Keep Improving

Eagles signed WR Mike Wallace to a one-year contract.
Mike Wallace can still move posting a top five max speed among wide receivers last season. He will fill the void left by Torrey Smith as a speed vertical threat.

04/01/18, 11:08 AM CDT by Wheeler


Terrelle Pryor

Washington Redskins

Jets Searching For Weapons

Jets agreed to terms with WR Terrelle Pryor, formerly of Washington and Cleveland.

Second year in a row on a new team doesn’t really help Pryor's cause, but I like the idea of him on the field with Teddy Bridgewater at some point. I would imagine, with some creativity, the Jets could really design some innovative gadget plays.
The Jets receiving corps really looks like a bunch of question marks at this point though, no telling what the week-to-week outcome will be with these guys.
Jermaine Kearse: 65 catches, 810 yards, 5 touchdowns (2017)
Robby Anderson: 63 catches, 941 yards, 7 touchdowns (2017)
Quincy Enunwa: 58 catches, 857 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)
Terrelle Pryor: 77 catches, 1007 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)

04/01/18, 11:04 AM CDT by Wheeler


Carlos Henderson

Denver Broncos

Sleeper Watch

Broncos coach Vance Joseph said the team is "counting on" Carlos Henderson making an impact in 2018.

If you are paying attention to Staggs projections there is plenty of opportunity for Henderson to step into a solid number of targets in the slot. Henderson was hindered by injury and awful QB play last year. Being drafted in the 18th round or later in best-ball leagues, Henderson is the late round flyer that should be on your radar.

04/01/18, 11:00 AM CDT by Wheeler


Ben Watson

Baltimore Ravens

Watson Returns To Big Easy

Saints signed TE Ben Watson, formerly of the Ravens, to a one-year contract.

Watson had 74 catches on 110 targets for 825 yards and 6 TD’s when he was with the Saints in 2015. After missing 2016 he had a pretty good year with Baltimore last year despite an anemic offense, with 61 catches on 79 targets for 522 yards and 4 TD’s. He’s not a bad late round flyer TE. He’s basically free right now, but I expect by the time the season starts he’ll be being drafted within the top 20 at the position.

04/01/18, 10:54 AM CDT by Wheeler


Fantasy Football Sleepers from Pop's - check out 21 sleepers and super sleepers for fantasy football in 2017 from

Pop's Sleepers & Super Sleepers for Fantasy Football in 2017

Posted by d-Rx on 07/20/17

by   The Archer


More Articals


“I say luck is when an opportunity comes along and you're prepared for it.” ----- Denzel Washington

As of 2016 there are 774 colleges or universities that field football teams. The average college rosters have about 125 players, so if I count on my fingers and toes that is 96,750 young men with the dream of playing at the NFL level. The roster size of an NFL team is 53. There are 32 teams, wait while I take off my sox again. If I count correctly that is 1,696 NFL spots. It is very hard to make a NFL roster and even more difficult to get playing time. Therefore, it is next to impossible to predict who will come out of nowhere to become a sleeper. A player who may be buried on his depth chart, but due to injury or their sheer will they succeed. If you are one of the lucky fantasy players who pick correctly in the late rounds or use a savvy waiver wire pick. Your chances of championship gold are greatly increased.


It is not an exact science but sometimes you can see it and it shines like a gold nugget in the murky water. Last season I called the rookie of the year in the preseason, feel free to check my Twitter timeline, I’ll wait. I correctly predicted Dak as rookie of the year, well to be honest I believe I said Co ROY with Zeke, but who’s counting. I am not saying I will do the same this year but I do have some guys in the very late rounds I like. Will all of them pan out, probably not, but I will make my case for each of them and why I like them. It will be up to the reader to make his or her decision based on my case. I will be referencing players ADP using Fantasy Football Calculator web site. 



Running Backs


D’Onta Foreman - RB - HOU – I wanted to start with Forman, since he has been in the news the past few days. The earliest reports did no bode well for his fledgling career. Caught with weed and a gun early on a Sunday. To his credit he did not sit by and let others write the story. He immediately had his lawyer issue a report that the gun was registered and the weed belonged to a passenger. The response was one that someone who was innocent might make. My case for Foreman will be based on a presumption of innocence. If it turns out he is in trouble, disregard everything I am about to say.


Lamar Miller had 268 rushing attempts in 2016. That was 6th in the league. The Texans will at some point will turn the QB reins over to Watson and when they do they will want to give the rookie QB cover of a run game. A trend that was started last season with the Texans finishing 6th in rushing by their backs.

Why Foreman over My Boy Blue? Miller nor Blue was particularly impressive considering their opportunities. Miller had 268 carries and Blue 100 for a rushing average of 4 yards and 4.2 respectively. It is unclear if Miller can be the workhorse the Texans desire but what is clear is Forman has the ability and size to do just that. As a Longhorn Foreman won the Doak Walker award when he put up crazy numbers. Rushing for 2,028 yards on 323 attempts in just 11 games. If I do my math right that is 29.4 carries a game. Big, strong and fast at 6’ 1” 249 I can see a clear window to not only relieve the smaller Miller but to vulture goal line work. Foremans ADP has dipped with the news of the recent incident. It has dropped entire round to 14.01. I liked the way he got out in front of the report and I suspect it may have been overblown by the press, but something to monitor.


Jonathan Williams - RB - BUF – I can’t say I am jumping up and down in excitement for Williams, but if opportunity is king then he is in line for a ton if disaster falls. When I started picking Runningbacks for this article I went with the mindset of late round no less than 2nd on depth chart, talent, and most of all, team’s commitment to the run. The Bills will continue their run heavy ways leading the entire league with 2,634 team rushing yards in 2016. That is more yards on less carries, 479 to 495 then the “MIGHTY” Cowboy rushing game. I am not trying to fool anyone into thinking that Williams will split carries and steal goaline work like Gillislee did last year. For whatever reason the Bills allowed Gillislee to head to division rival New England and failed to address the need in the draft. Which brings us back to opportunity. Williams numbers will dramatically increase. Last season he managed just 97 yards on 27 carries. I like Williams as the clear handcuff for Shady. Perhaps not as many carries as Gillislee got last season, 101, but could be huge if the 29-year-old McCoy goes down.


Jalen Richard - RB - OAK – The Raider should be the team to beat in the AFC west. With the departure of Murray to the Twin City a void was created for a lead back. The Raiders could have gone with their bookend RB’s Washington and Richard. Coming in at 5’8” and just 205 lbs. each it was clear they would not hold up to a large work load so in comes hometown hero Marshawn Lynch. After taking a year off to find himself and search Europe for the metalogical golden Skittle. He decides he wants to represent for his Home Town before they are banished to the desert. Why do I like Richard over Washington? Honestly it is very close call, both will see significant action. Richard caught more passes 29 to 17. He had 685 combined yards to 582. I will be shocked to see 75-year-old Lynch with a huge workload, ok maybe not 75 but he old. I suspect the numbers for both Washington and Richard go up from last season.


Duke Johnson - RB - CLV – Ok I maybe stretching my definition of what a late round sleeper is, but I can’t hide my love for Johnson. His current ADP in standard is 13.04 but in PPR he jumps all the way to 10.09. With Football Focus O-Line rank of 2nd both Johnson and his teammate Crowell have seen a steady increase. Crowell is starting to approach the point where he won’t come as much of a value. I wrote an article just before the draft speculating on what the future holds for the Browns. They handled themselves very well making almost every move I had speculated on. Their Defense will improve this year and they will win more games but will still see a ton of negative game scripts where they must throw to catch up. Duke had a better rushing average than Crowell 4.9 to 4.8. Duke is the all-time leading rusher for the Hurricanes. Crowell was a Undrafted FA who has played above his talent. Looking at total yards last season Johnson had 872 total yards on just 126 carries. Crow had 1,271 on 238. Considering the significant difference in ADP value I will take Johnson in a lot of drafts this year.


Joe Williams - RB - SF – This player has become a very fashionable sleeper. With a new coaching staff in San Fran, Carlos Hyde will have to prove himself. Shanahan fought to get Williams even trading up to select him. He will be the clear handcuff and could supplant Hyde. At 5’11” 210 he ran a 4.41 40 at the underwear Olympics. With statements from coaches about Hyde having to earn a position nothing will be set in stone in the Bay City.



Wide Receivers


Ted Ginn Jr. - WR - CAR – Which one is more valuable the 2nd best receiver in Carolina or the 3rd option in New Orleans? I say the latter. Most people would say that with the departure of Cooks that Thomas and Snead each move up a spot in the pecking order. I am not convinced that is how it will go. Throughout his career Ginn has been the speed guy, someone to take the top off the D. Now he goes to a team who just let a 1000-yard burner scoot off to Boston. I could make a case for Ginn to approach that 1000-yard mark. Not a bad value considering his ADP is 14.01. In Best ball leagues, he should be even better.


Zay Jones - WR - BUF – Jones had 158 receptions for the Pirates last season that was 44% of the teams catches. He had 1,770 combined yards. He had 31% of the total team’s offense. Let me spell that out for you again. ECU had 1,589 rushing and 4,016 receiving he had 1,770 total yards by himself. Now he is slotted into the #2 WR in Buffalo alongside “Glass Foot Watkins” Even if Watkins plays 16 games he should still get a respectable number of targets and if Watkins goes down AGAIN. Oh Baby!!!!


Robert Woods - WR - LAR – Jeff Fisher was so conservative he made Berry Goldwater look like a Berkley hippy. What you think to dated? Maybe it shows my age, any hoo. The long and short of it is this. Fisher was a run 3 times and punt kind of a guy and even that team could produce a 1000-yard receiver. Woods comes into the vacated Britt roll and should see something very close to the same or even more targets as Britt. I like the rest of the Pyro guys love Woods this year. He finished as the Bills #1 last season with the injury to Watkins. The team finished dead last in receptions which accounts for the very low numbers for a WR1. Let us do some number extrapolating. He had a catch average of 12.1 yards if he ends up with 70 catches 841 yards. Now let’s look at players who finished around those numbers last season and where they are going this year.




Tight Ends


Jack Doyle - TE - IND – The Colts finished 3rd in TE receiving yards in 2016. Doyle had 59 receptions for 584 yards. Dewayne Allen had 35 for 466. Allen is gone to play understudy to the GOAT in New England. The way I look at this if he gets just half of those added to his receptions you are looking at 752 yards and with is TD rate 6 TDs. Folks we are talking a top 6 TE whose current ADP places him as 13th TE.


Cameron Brate - TE - TB – Brate tied Hunter Henry with 8 TDs for TEs and had 660 yards. He finished as TE12 and as a reward the Bucs go out and drafted the highly touted TE from Bama, O.J. Howard. Now based on ADP Howard is supposed to be a TE1 and Brate is like the 16th TE. You are joking, right? I look for an example from last season to compare TB to and the closest is the Chargers. Established vet and talented rookie. Henry finished with 36 receptions for 478 while Gates had 53 for 548. Look for a similar split in Tampa this season. With the larger portion going to Brate and Howard getting around the 478 number. Tight End is an extremely hard position to come in off the street and pick it up right away. Don’t make the mistake of getting enamored with the new shiny toy just yet when your old one isn’t broke.


Coby Fleener - TE - NO – I can’t believe I am doing this again, at least this year he comes at a proper ADP. His current ADP is bringing him in at 14.03 in 2016 his ADP was 7.01. As we all know he was considered a bust based on his ADP. I will go into my feelings about ADP and expectations in part 2 of this article, but for now I will make my case for a late round flyer on Fleener.

Previous to the 2016 season these are the yardage and TD totals for the Saints TEs. 2015 825 and 6, 2014 889 and 10, 2013 1,215 and 16, 2012 982 and 9, and 2011 1,310 and 11. The opportunity is there for Fleener he just needs to get on the same page as Breese. There were signs last year. He is one of the league’s most athletic Tightends. Showing that ability on occasion he still managed to finish as a TE1 last season. He was a deep threat also connecting for 249 yards on catches of 20 yards or more. If you can get past that bad taste he left in your mouth last season, you could get a top 8 TE at the end of your draft.




If you are looking for names under this portion, forget it. I can’t pick just one late round guy I like. They all have the potential for top 8 numbers. This is the season for waiting on QB. From 8 all the way to like 13 or 14 I could see myself starting those guys. My only advice is this. Wait and then wait some more. If you are playing in a league where most teams have a QB by the 4th, don’t freak out. You will be ok I promise. 





By Pop's



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