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August 17, 2018
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Cooper Kupp

Los Angeles Rams

Mr. Cooper's neighborhood


Cooper Kupp was 4th in the NFL last year in red-zone targets. Kupp and Goff have the most chemistry of all the receivers on the team as Goff targeted him more than anyone last year. Everyone is expecting Cooks to lead these receivers in points this year, but Kupp will be the receiver to own. Sammy Watkins had eight red-zone touchdowns last year. Cooks is not a red-zone target receiver, so Kupp should see more targets and could sneak into the WR2 with massive upside.


08/13/18, 09:39 PM CDT by C-wags

Source: pyromaniac.com


Jerick McKinnon

Minnesota Vikings

The Jet is set to take off!


Mckinnon has been a super divisive player this offseason. Especially after the first preseason game where he didn't amass many yards and the following day he injured himself in practice. I constantly hear people question his ability to carry the ball 200+ times or that he can’t run between the tackles, or he’s unproven in a lead role. This is all NONSENSE and you shouldn’t believe any of it. Shanahan had his pick of players that he could’ve signed instead of Mckinnon, including Dion Lewis, Carlos Hyde, or drafting a rookie. He chose Mckinnon cause he felt he fit his offensive system in the same way that Devante Freeman fit his scheme. The 49ers just signed Alfred Morris today as a safety net, but I’m taking all the Mckinnon I can this year. I see him carrying the ball 205car/950yds/6td while also amassing 60rec/500yds/5td making him an RB1 this year. Don't be scared, and steal him away from people that are.


08/13/18, 09:24 PM CDT by C-wags

Source: pyromaniac.com


Marquise Goodwin

San Francisco 49ers

Too good, too fast


Marquiae goodwin has been targeted like a number one in camp. With Pierre Garcon likely squaring off with one of the toughest schedules against number one DBs, Goodwin could break out even more than he did last year. I wouldn't put it past him to put up T.Y HIlton numbers this year. Pick him up in the 6th and 7th round and pile up the points.


08/13/18, 09:11 PM CDT by C-wags

Source: pyromaniac.com


Jay Ajayi

Philadelphia Eagles

Ready To Fly


In 2016 Ajayi racked up 1272 yards on 260 carries and 8 TD’s and finished as the RB11 in both standard and PPR scoring. Last year Miami ran him out of town when he struggled in an anemic offense. He was not heavily used when he got to Philly, but his touches did increase every week until the Superbowl. He was also hyper efficient gaining 5.8 yards per carry and 9.1 yards per reception. Despite the general perception Clements usage went down with Ajayi’s arrival, even with Smallwood going down with injury. The Eagles have the number 1 offensive line as graded by PFF, and 18 RB targets and 192 carries vacated. Ajayi is a safe pick in the fourth round and a steal in the fifth.


08/02/18, 06:08 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.nflmock.com


Jimmy Graham

Green Bay Packers

Split Wide, Back in Stride


He is coming off a season that produced only 57 receptions for 520 yards, his fewest since his rookie season. With that said, Graham remains a big-time weapon in the red zone. He led the league last year with 27 targets in the region, which led to 10 touchdowns. You can bet Rodgers and play-caller Mike McCarthy will be utilizing his skills early and often when knocking on the door of the end zone.
Look for McCarthy to use a variety of personnel groupings with his new tight end group and expect to see Graham split out wide as a receiver much more than as a traditional in-line tight end.

This goes right along with what I was saying on Pyro podcast 308. I expect Graham to be used as a wide receiver and not a tight end. When Graham was negotiating his contract in his last season in New Orleans he wanted to be paid on scale with wide receivers because he rarely lined-up as an in-line tight end. When Seattle paid him, he did whatever they asked, and they asked him to block more. He was out for five games that year, but averaged one less reception per game and only scored two TD’s, after having at least nine TD’s in the previous four years. Overall Graham saw about 25% fewer targets while in Seattle compared to New Orleans and his fantasy numbers reflect it. I see Green Bay using him more like he was used in New Orleans, and even though he has obviously lost a step or two I see him as the major replacement for the Jordy Nelson targets.


07/22/18, 01:41 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.packersnews.com


Aaron Jones

Green Bay Packers

Cream Rises To The Top


Jones’ 5.55 YPC on first- and second-down carries trailed only Alvin Kamara (6.24) for best in the league last year. Jamaal Williams averaged 3.80 YPC on first- and second-down in 2017.

He’s slid two rounds since the announcement of his two game suspension, he is a screaming value if you can get him in the ninth round. We already knew he was going to be competing in a crowded backfield so missing two games really shouldn’t be a big hit to his overall production. The likelihood of either of the other two backs taking over the role is slim, Jones should be able to carve out 10 touches a game when he gets back with fresh legs. They are all high risk for injuries so I’m hoping this added rest will help Jones in the long run.


07/21/18, 06:51 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Nelson Agholor

Philadelphia Eagles

Solidified Role


In 2017, Nelson Agholor had 62 recs, 768 yds, 9 TDs and 7 games of WR2 or better. There is no reason he wouldn't maintain this output, even with additions in the offense. Agholor had to carve out a role for himself and beat out incumbent Jordan Matthews. This year he'll be the main slot receiver and have an established role from the start.


07/21/18, 06:49 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Sterling Shepard

New York Giants

Buying The Slot Receiver in a Shurmur Offense


Sterling Shepard is currently 24 years old with a 124/1,414/10 career line, in two seasons. He finished 2017 as the WR42 in 11 games (WR22 in FP/G) with only a 13.9% target share. He finished 2016 as the WR36 as a rookie. He's currently being drafted as the WR42 in MFL10’s.

Shepard does see more targets (+2.7), get more receptions (+2.3), more yards (+28), and get about three more PPR points per game when Beckham is out. But he still averages over 11 PPR points per game when he is playing. Apparently Shepard is more open in the end-zone when Beckham is playing, as he averages three times as many TD’s when they are both playing.


07/21/18, 06:47 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Allen Hurns

Jacksonville Jaguars

Plenty of Targets in Dallas


He’s been hampered by injuries over the past couple of years, but when he has stayed healthy and gotten the targets he has been successful. His best season was in 2015, he had 105 Targets for 64 Receptions at 1031 Yards for 10 TDs, that’s 16.11 Yards Per Reception and a 61% Catch Rate coming from Blake Bortles. He finished as the WR14 in Standard Scoring and WR18 in PPR.

He's an amazing value in the 11th round of current best-ball drafts.


07/21/18, 06:41 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Eric Ebron

Detroit Lions

Second Team Breath's New Life Into TE


Outside Brady, Luck is the only other QB to support 2 TE's, both Fleener and Allen had 8 TD's with Luck. Frank Reich runs 2 TE sets very successfully - see: 2018 Eagles. TE1's for Coach Reich have never finished worse than 12th. Yes, Doyle would seem like the obvious choice after last season, but that was with Brissett who needed a quick dump off outlet. Luck isn't a check-down machine.

Eric Ebron has lined up "everywhere" in the Colts offense. And the new tight end already is beginning to feel at home in Indianapolis. Without a strong WR2, Ebron could see a large number of targets. The Colt's line-up in two TE sets more than any other team in the NFL.


07/21/18, 06:36 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Matt Breida

San Francisco 49ers

Filling Coleman Role


“One guy who stood out at Niners practice to me was RB Matt Breida. No one talks about him, but the dude is gonna get some run this year. Fast downhill player.”

This is just some more camp hype from a beat reporter, but if they don’t get another running back through trade or free-agency Brieda is going to see plenty of touches to pay off being picked in the 15th round of fantasy drafts. McKinnon has never had over 205 touches in a season, that leaves plenty of opportunity in a Shanahan offense.


07/21/18, 06:28 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


LeSean McCoy

Buffalo Bills

McCoy starring down 30 with uncertainty


LeSean McCoy, despite ending the year as the #7 fantasy running back in standard leagues was a slight disappointment for fantasy owners last year. McCoy played in all 16 regular season games, but only cracked 100 yards rushing 4 times, and averaged 4.0 yards per rush, which was 23rd in the NFL. That all happened with a formidable QB with a scrambling ability that defenses had to respect, presumably allowing McCoy some more room before tacklers ascended.
The Bills have the least sexy QB situation in the entire NFL in my opinion. With Tyrod Taylor at the helm for most of the season last year, the bills had the 31st passing offense. None of the QBs on the Bills roster are considered mobile and without a wide receiver on their roster worthy of drafting in any fantasy formats, defenses can stack the box against McCoy. McCoy will be overused, underperform and probably get hurt because of it. McCoy’s ADP is in the second round, but wouldn’t touch him until the fourth or beginning of the fifth round.


06/29/18, 12:42 PM CDT by C-wags

Source: pyromaniac.com


Tyreek Hill

Kansas City Chiefs

Hill lookin' busty with chiefs new look.


Tyreek Hill had a great 2017, amounting 75 receptions for 1183 yards and 7 touchdowns in 15 games. He’s currently being drafted in the middle of the third round in standard leagues, which would appear to be a great value. However, with promoted RB coach Eric Bieniemy presumably in-line to be the primary play caller, a new QB, Travis Kelce receiving the #1 target share and the addition of Sammy Watkins, I expect Hill’s numbers to decrease dramatically.
I believe Hill to be more of a boom or bust player this year. There’s no denying his break-away speed and ability to separate from defenders, and with Mahomes cannon of an arm, I expect them to connect deep on occasion. However, I believe Sammy Watkins to be the more complete receiver and likely to take more of the target share from Hill. Bundled with the change in offensive strategy toward the end of last year to run the ball more, the change to a young QB presumably resulting in a more conservative game plan, I see a major decline in the amount of touches Hill will get and see him as more of a 5-6 round flex play guy.


06/21/18, 10:54 AM CDT by C-wags

Source: pyromaniac.com


Eric Ebron

Detroit Lions

Ebron Could Use Some Luck


Colts signed TE Eric Ebron, formerly of the Lions, to a two-year contract. Coach Frank Reich called Ebron an "elite tight end."

The last time we saw Andrew Luck healthy (2016), the Colts used 2+ TE sets at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL and had the 6th-highest target share to TEs.


04/01/18, 11:32 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Carlos Hyde

San Francisco 49ers

Hyde and Seek


Browns agreed to terms with RB Carlos Hyde, formerly of the 49ers, on a three-year, $15 million contract.

Obtaining Hyde has several trickle-down effects; first it replaces Crowell who signed with the Jets, it probably diminishes Duke Johnson’s value a bit. Hyde is a better all-around back than Crowell was and will certainly take over the goal-line work seeing that he’s got 20+ pounds on Duke. It also reduces the likelihood that Cleveland takes Saquon Barkley with the 4th pick in the draft. They will most likely look to draft a defensive player (Chubb) or trade down again.


04/01/18, 11:28 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jerick McKinnon

Minnesota Vikings

McKinnon Goes West For Gold-Rush


49ers agreed to terms with RB Jerick McKinnon, formerly of the Vikings, on a four-year, $30 million contract.

McKinnon averaged a ho-hum 3.8 yards a carry for the Vikings and scored three rushing touchdowns. By contrast, San Francisco's former lead runner, Carlos Hyde, averaged 3.9 yards an attempt in 2017 and had eight rushing touchdowns.

It appears as though Shanahan is enamored with McKinnon's athletic metrics, but I'm not so sure he was "pounding the table" to get him. This move could push the Niner's to cut Joe Williams.


04/01/18, 11:12 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.sacbee.com


Mike Wallace

Baltimore Ravens

Eagles Keep Improving


Eagles signed WR Mike Wallace to a one-year contract.
Mike Wallace can still move posting a top five max speed among wide receivers last season. He will fill the void left by Torrey Smith as a speed vertical threat.


04/01/18, 11:08 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Terrelle Pryor

Washington Redskins

Jets Searching For Weapons


Jets agreed to terms with WR Terrelle Pryor, formerly of Washington and Cleveland.

Second year in a row on a new team doesn’t really help Pryor's cause, but I like the idea of him on the field with Teddy Bridgewater at some point. I would imagine, with some creativity, the Jets could really design some innovative gadget plays.
The Jets receiving corps really looks like a bunch of question marks at this point though, no telling what the week-to-week outcome will be with these guys.
Jermaine Kearse: 65 catches, 810 yards, 5 touchdowns (2017)
Robby Anderson: 63 catches, 941 yards, 7 touchdowns (2017)
Quincy Enunwa: 58 catches, 857 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)
Terrelle Pryor: 77 catches, 1007 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)


04/01/18, 11:04 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Carlos Henderson

Denver Broncos

Sleeper Watch


Broncos coach Vance Joseph said the team is "counting on" Carlos Henderson making an impact in 2018.

If you are paying attention to Staggs projections there is plenty of opportunity for Henderson to step into a solid number of targets in the slot. Henderson was hindered by injury and awful QB play last year. Being drafted in the 18th round or later in best-ball leagues, Henderson is the late round flyer that should be on your radar.


04/01/18, 11:00 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.denverpost.com


Ben Watson

Baltimore Ravens

Watson Returns To Big Easy


Saints signed TE Ben Watson, formerly of the Ravens, to a one-year contract.

Watson had 74 catches on 110 targets for 825 yards and 6 TD’s when he was with the Saints in 2015. After missing 2016 he had a pretty good year with Baltimore last year despite an anemic offense, with 61 catches on 79 targets for 522 yards and 4 TD’s. He’s not a bad late round flyer TE. He’s basically free right now, but I expect by the time the season starts he’ll be being drafted within the top 20 at the position.


04/01/18, 10:54 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Andrew Luck and every relevant QB are covered in this quick hitter piece for fantasy football

Pyro Gold Diggers - FF Outlook Nuggets for Quarterbacks Vol. 1

Posted by d-Rx on 07/06/17

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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Aaron Rodgers

What can we say about Aaron Rodgers? He is the all time leader in TD:INT ratio and finished first among QBs in scoring in 2016 ahead of even the MVP season by Matt Ryan. This being said, he did so on only 27% deep ball accuracy. His previous career low was 38% and has 4 seasons above 50%. Expect A-Rod to IMPROVE on his already excellent 2016 season.

 

Tom Brady

How far away is the cliff for Mr. Brady? Well let’s remember that TB actually fell off a cliff in late March of 2015, no this wasn’t the horrid Chiefs game, but Brady fell off a cliff in the Costa Rican jungle. What did he do after that? He put up the second most points in 2015 to Cam’s superman-esque season, then followed it up with a near perfect 99.3 PFF grade for 2016. Do not fear the cliff in 2017 as Brandin Cooks came to town and Rob Gronkowski returns to action to safely catch Brad and tuck him away as a top 3 QB.

 

Andrew Luck

We all know Luck is coming off a serious shoulder surgery that has sidelined him sporadically the last two season. Despite this, Luck put together a 2016 season with a career best 71.2 QBR and a 92.4 PFF grade. If Luck is doing this with a injured throwing shoulder, imagine what he’ll do once healthy and with an upgraded offensive line.

 

Drew Brees

Mr. 5,000 will be without LT Terron Armstead for an extended period of time with a torn labrum. Fortunately for the QB widely known for his Home/Road splits averaged 18 points per game both with and without Armstead. Unfortunately for Brees, he will be without C Max Unger for an extended period and lost Brandin Cooks via trade.

 

Russell Wilson

Throwing only 34 pass attempts per game, there were 14 QBs who throw more than Russ. However, Wilson’s targets combined for only 10 drops for eligible WRs, and finished as a top 5 QB in five of his final 8 games after recovering from an ankle injury that had him close to immobile for first half of the season.

 

Matt Ryan

Take your pick between the Super Bowl loss hangover season, losing offensive guru Kyle Shanahan or having the highest QB Rating on clean pockets passes for why Ryan should experience regression in 2017.

 

Derek Carr

After signing the richest contract in NFL history what will the storyline for Carr’s 2017 be? We could be talking about how Carr reaped the benefits of Amari Cooper making the 3rd year WR jump. But will he be able to get the ball there with 4 of the top 10 rated CBs from last year on division rivals. Maybe we shouldn’t be taking last years 13th quarterback in points per game as the 6th QB off the board.

 

Kirk Cousins

Cousins is playing yet another season on the Franchise tag, this time he has to do it without Garcon and Jackson. Although many believe Terrelle Pryor to be an upgrade, Garcon actually finished with the 8th highest grade among all WRs. Pryor finished at number 31, with Jackson close behind at 36. In all reality Cousins may be in line for decreased production with his new look WR core.

 

Marcus Mariota

Although the idiom “break a leg” typically means good luck, Mariota’s fibula might be a little salty. We shouldn’t expect Mariota to break his shocking 0 career red zone interceptions with his upgraded toys in rookie Corey Davis and the former Jet and Bronco Eric Decker. Not to mention Mariota was the QB1 in fantasy spanning from Week 5 to 12 without the aforementioned pass catchers.

 

Dak Prescott

How much more leash will they give him as a run first team? Prescott had a historically low interception rate, this will regress this season, how does that affect psyche ad overall FF points?

 

Jameis Winston

Winston has 66 to 1 odds to win the 2017 MVP, but he averaged 9 less passes in Bucs wins. With only 8 QBs throwing deep balls at a worse percentage than Winston in 2016 DJax may be vastly underutilized. Take the field on this one.

 

Ben Roethlisberger

The splits game, Big Ben averages 4 more fantasy points per game with Martavis Bryant on the field. But his 70% completion rating and 20-5 TD to INT ratio drops to 59% and 9-8 on the road. Oh yeah, Ben starts the season with 3/4 games on the road.

 

Cam Newton

Well the dab is officially out which is good, but Cam had the lowest adjusted completion percentage in the NFL last year. Luckily for Cam, he goes up against 5 teams that give up the most fantasy points to QB’s and only 2 of the 10 most difficult matchups. Cam needs to learn how to protect himself better as he has been hit on 23% of his drop backs since entering the league in 2011 (That’s over 700 hits from NFL defensive players).

 

Phillip Rivers

After getting uprooted from his San Diego beach home, Rivers moves two hours north and will face the 5th most difficult QB schedule. After not missing a game in 11 season, Rivers might prefer to stay stuck in LA traffic rather than play behind the second worst line in football.

 

Andy Dalton

Dalton produced 4 top 60 players in his offense despite having AJ Green and Tyler Eifert for only 2 games. This season Dalton will have the added weapons of the speedster John Ross and preseason beast Joe Mixon. Dalton should be in line to get back to a top 5 QB and you can really wait on him in drafts.

 

Tyrod Taylor

The shackles are off TyGod as he is released from Rex Ryan and Greg Roman’s most run heavy offense in the NFL. Getting Sammy Watkins back healthy and the addition of Zay Jones shouldn’t hurt either.

 

Matthew Stafford

Stafford set the NFL record for most 4th Quarter Comebacks with 8. Although this statistic doesn’t have sticky correlations for the next season, Stafford has 6 straight 4,000 yard season and is the fastest QB in NFL history to reach the 30,000 yard mark. You can basically view him as a Drew Brees-lite that’s going multiple rounds later.

 

Eli Manning

Manning showed signs that he may be closer to the end than many think, failing to match his statistical outputs across the board since McAdoo took over the offense. The addition of Marshall and Engram should inflate his numbers, but don’t be surprised if we see a decline similar to Peyton’s 2015 season especially since Eli has not missed a game in his last 192, compounding this impact.

 

Blake Bortles

While everyone is talking about how Bortles continues to be a fantasy asset despite his real football struggles. Each year of Bortles career he has trailed less than the prior season. His rookie campaign he threw 77% of his attempts when trailing, 73% as a sophomore and 67% this last season. Jaguars improved their defense so we should expect them to be trailing less in 2017. While NOT trailing Bortles has failed to complete over 58% of his passes for only 2,800 yards with 11 TDs and 12 INTs. He did this on 510 attempts, that’s almost a full seasons worth. Bortles is a disease that you don’t want to catch in 2017!

 

Carson Wentz

Wentz was one of only 6 QBs to attempt over 600 attempts, however he finished with the least fantasy points among said QB’s. Lane Johnson coming back should help tremendously as he averaged 19 fantasy points with Johnson vs 15 without him. The addition of Alshon Jeffrey and Torrey Smith should only increase his effectiveness.

 

Carson Palmer

Is the cliff finally here for Palmer, who will be 38 by seasons end this year? It looked like it after Palmer followed up his 2015 season which was rated as the second best QB season of the past decade by PFF’s Scott Barrett with a gaudy 2016. With an ADP after QB20 Carson has real bounce back potential and is practically free. The stat to watch to indicate 2017 success will be decreasing his league high 137 hits from 2016.

 

Joe Flacco

Despite the highest number of drop backs and pass attempts in 2016, Flacco failed to break 15 fantasy points per game. Although the additions of Jeremy Maclin and Danny Woodhead should help Flacco, it may not even break even compared to 348 targets vacated by Steve Smith, Kamar Aiken and Dennis Pitta.

 

Alex Smith

Smith was one of the most game script sensitive QBs last year. His team led 47% of the time, but scored only 34% of his FP when leading. Known as strictly a game manager, Smith is a streaming QB option at best with Mahomes looming.

 

Ryan Tannehill

Tannehill was one of the most impacted QBs when facing pressure. With a clean pocket he averaged 9 yards per attempt while completing 74% of passes for a 112.4 QB rating. When facing pressure his yards per attempt dropped to 6.3 and competed less than 50% of his passes for a terrible 38.8 QB rating. Keep in mind that LT Branden Albert has moved on to Jacksonville and Pro Bowl Center Mike Pouncey is likely to start to season on the PUP list.

 

Sam Bradford

Bradford set career bests in completion percentage, yards, touchdowns per game and interceptions per game. He did this completing 71.6% of his passes, despite having never topped 65% and having the 3rd highest percentage of yards after that catch in the NFL. Expect some regression, especially with Teddy Bridgewater getting closer to being cleared from his brutal knee injury.

 

 

 

 

By The Hartbeat (@pyro_hartbeat)

 

 

 

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