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San Francisco 49ers - 2016 Fantasy Football Stat Projections

San Francisco 49ers - 2016 Fantasy Football Stat Projections

Posted by Stagg Party on 09/01/16

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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Projecting to the upcoming season is a worthwhile exercise in fantasy circles. Like rankings, some projections are better than others. There are some factors that can help you project for your own purposes. First, never let your ranks affect the projections, second, use the information at hand to determine workload and splits, and finally, do not project in a vacuum. The third point is the most important, always project in the scheme of the offense. For example, you can’t project John Brown, Larry Fitzgerald, and Michael Floyd to each go for over 1,200 yards receiving and have 12 touchdowns if you expect the quarterback (Carson Palmer) to throw for just 3,000 yards and 30 touchdowns. Since projections are a tough business, and it is tough to account for every catch on the season, there is a category known as scraps. Some teams have more of a clear-cut pecking order and therefore have a smaller scraps section; teams with lots of unknowns have a larger one. After you lay out your projections, think about the range of outcomes for each player, and use those to shape your rankings. 

 

 

San Francisco 49ers 2016 projections stat chart

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San Francisco 49ers Pros & Cons:


 

(+) The 49ers could see a rise in plays worth nearly two games in the first season under Chip Kelly

(+) San Fran has three quarterbacks with some rushing ability for the first time, outside of a brief stint with Michael Vick, since Chip has been at the NFL level

(+) Carlos Hyde should return from injury and be the key cog in Chip Kelly’s rushing attack, the question for his fantasy value is his involvement in the passing game

(+) Torrey Smith had a down first year in SF, but Chip Kelly has turned WRs of his profile into WR1’s and at a current WR4 price tag in ADP is a guy I will take a chance on

(+) Shaun Draughn has been expected to get work on this squad as a change of pace back and third down specialist, keep an eye on him late in drafts as he is practically free

(+) Bruce Ellington is a trendy sleeper target at wide receiver as he is expected to be the teams starting slot receiver, but his production over two seasons is uninspiring

(+) The tight end situation is led by Vance McDonald who has made some splash plays in the last few years, but it is also interesting that Kelly has another Celek around to destroy a tight ends fantasy value

(+/-) Philly and SF had the exact same run/pass splits last season despite a different volume of plays

(-) Whether it is Blaine Gabbert or Colin Kaepernick, they will both need to improve off of last seasons atrocious quarterback play to be fantasy viable

(-) Carlos Hyde hasn’t exactly proven himself over the course of a season and Shaun Draughn has been on more teams then I care to count right this minute

(-) Torrey Smith is coming off the worst season of his career and the rest of the receiving corps has more questions than any team not named the Rams

(-) This team has deep receiving corps but there have been numerous reports coming out of camp that each one is better than the next, and performing at a higher-level than others

(-) San Francisco had the lowest yards per carry among their running backs in the NFL last season

(-) The 49ers had a bottom ten offensive line last season but could see a bounce back with the un-retirement of Anthony Davis

 

 

 


 

These projections were built on a variety of factors including but not limited to:

 

Number of Plays Run

Run/Pass Ratio

WR1 Market Share

WR2 Market Share

RB1 Market Share

TE1 Market Share

QB Career Patterns

RB Career Patterns

WR Career Patterns

TE Career Patterns

Sack Percentages

Percentage of Drives ending in scores

 

 

 

 

View the next team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 

 

 

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