Week 20
January 21, 2019
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Pyromaniac.com

@pyroman1ac


I know it probably makes me an asshole... but sign him now Pace! https://t.co/95ErElTr9E


07:26 PM, Jan 21, 2019

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Anthony staggs

@PyroStag


RT @vxmcclure23: Surprised to see Mitch Trubisky over Matt Ryan to replace Jared Goff in Pro Bowl but oh well.


06:29 PM, Jan 21, 2019

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Anthony staggs

@PyroStag


@JhawkChalk89 Yes, I lied, I got triggered and un-freinded someone on facebook after their Mitch Trubisky gloat session.


06:27 PM, Jan 21, 2019

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Anthony staggs

@PyroStag


RT @FourVerts: this is the MLK day content we all needed https://t.co/mJPmiNdVDz


06:24 PM, Jan 21, 2019

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Anthony staggs

@PyroStag


I will not be triggered by people thinking Trubisky is now great after being named to the pro-bowl. I will not be t… https://t.co/SwyRSf0Oc3


06:17 PM, Jan 21, 2019

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Pyromaniac.com

@pyroman1ac


"Narrative" had to be the most overused word of 2018.


06:05 PM, Jan 21, 2019

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Anthony staggs

@PyroStag


RT @Chris_Evans91: Hue wore leggings so he could beat the handicapped and old people onto the flight when they were called. When asked… https://t.co/4NzsfCGvJp


05:57 PM, Jan 21, 2019

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Waz

@WazNFL


@PeoplezPen It was ridiculously less expensive for me to fly into NO and then take a rental to Mobile.


05:52 PM, Jan 21, 2019

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Waz

@WazNFL


@PeoplezPen Southern hospitality.


05:51 PM, Jan 21, 2019

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Pyromaniac.com

@pyroman1ac


RT @sarah_malle: Introducing next-gen-scrapy: I took all 400+ Pass Charts from Next Gen Stats from 2017 onwards and extracted every… https://t.co/0rP6AxtxsI


05:34 PM, Jan 21, 2019

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Waz

@WazNFL


RT @AwesemoDFS: Anyone else glad we get to see Mahomes and Brees in the Pro Bowl?


04:14 PM, Jan 21, 2019

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Wheeler

@FF_Wheeler


RT @theFFanalysts: NFL Mock Draft 2.0 is here, happy #MockDraftMonday! #NFLDraft 5 Writers, 32 picks 💥 2 Top 10 Trades 🔥 3 QBs (2 ver… https://t.co/r3xBKkJX0M


02:43 PM, Jan 21, 2019

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Waz

@WazNFL


Sike.


04:52 AM, Jan 21, 2019

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Pyromaniac.com

@pyroman1ac


RT @EliotCrist: Still blows my mind that Tom Brady has played in more Superbowls (7) than road playoff games (6).


03:57 AM, Jan 21, 2019

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Pyromaniac.com

@pyroman1ac


I went 0 for 2 today...


03:54 AM, Jan 21, 2019

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Waz

@WazNFL


Gene Steratore is awfully cringe.


02:46 AM, Jan 21, 2019

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Wheeler

@FF_Wheeler


RT @majesstik1: What does the player pool look like when you use player prop bets to calculate projected points? Glad you asked, he… https://t.co/8rlFZjnZxL


05:28 PM, Jan 20, 2019

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Wheeler

@FF_Wheeler


RT @GridironSchol91: Coming Soon! 2019 #NFL #DraftProFiles with @PeoplezPen and myself. Top Rated QB: Dwayne Haskins, Ohio State… https://t.co/ViQRjx8N5V


03:46 PM, Jan 20, 2019

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Wheeler

@FF_Wheeler


RT @DP_NFL: Good Morning Cardinal fans...check out my game plan for you this off-season. Nice short and sweet!! https://t.co/3NodOls8Lg


03:46 PM, Jan 20, 2019

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Wheeler

@FF_Wheeler


RT @TheHateful8FF: Did the 2018 #FantasyFootball season seem different to you? In his most recent article titled “2018 Fantasy Footbal… https://t.co/BfjYGGY1jn


03:46 PM, Jan 20, 2019

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Pk ripper 🤜💥🤛

@amaze652


RT @PyroStag: Incredible that this can be asked at such a young age, but if you set the line for career MVPs for Patrick Mahomes… https://t.co/aNfpbCbDgf


11:59 PM, Jan 15, 2019

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Pk ripper 🤜💥🤛

@amaze652


RT @ReggieBush: Just when you think you’ve seen it all, @ClemsonFB you guys deserve better you are world champs and this is the hon… https://t.co/oZSQfVAgBm


09:55 PM, Jan 15, 2019

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Pk ripper 🤜💥🤛

@amaze652


RT @jetswhispers: ESPN's Adam Schefter announced the Jets are finalizing deal with Gregg Williams to become their defensive coordinator.


09:49 PM, Jan 15, 2019

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@amaze652


RT @pixelnfl: Adam Gase’s introductory presser 👀 #nflart #nyjets #jets #AdamGase #footballart #jetsnation #nflart #pixelart… https://t.co/foFARjww4g


09:46 PM, Jan 15, 2019

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Pk ripper 🤜💥🤛

@amaze652


RT @GeoffLambert77: Sorry to everyone that gets the newsletter and gets the spreadsheet a day late, flaw with the newsletter that I'm g… https://t.co/un7kqCoSPm


09:46 PM, Jan 15, 2019

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Mo

@pyromaniacmo


RT @MaclandJ: So I’ve got rankings updated @DynastyHHPod I’m probably wrong according to some & giving away market inefficiencies… https://t.co/cFriuwuyYh


10:55 PM, Jan 13, 2019

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Mo

@pyromaniacmo


RT @PaulCrane7: NEW Scout's Honor podcast with Joe Flacco's most likely landing spot and the OC who may join him. Problems in PIT i… https://t.co/vsfgxPVl7V


10:46 PM, Jan 13, 2019

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Mo

@pyromaniacmo


RT @Uncle_Odds: James White #DFS If you’re taking a shot with the Patriots backfield for me it would be White #NEvsLAC #GoPats C… https://t.co/1SqVcHyhS7


06:07 PM, Jan 13, 2019

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Mo

@pyromaniacmo


RT @PaulCrane7: NEW Scout's Honor podcast with more coaching news including landing spots for Mike McCarthy and Bruce Arians, coord… https://t.co/rjY7T56Nsg


06:03 PM, Jan 13, 2019

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Mo

@pyromaniacmo


Currently, in the @Ravens vs. @Chargers game, the 2 highest scoring fantasy players for each side= defenses. Accor… https://t.co/kxXxYLeOTn


08:47 PM, Jan 06, 2019

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Brad holmes

@bradholmes17


RT @pyromaniacmo: Of course. Another @pyroman1ac man, @FF_Wheeler The most accurate #FantasyFootball ranker so far this season! Well… https://t.co/49y6HFnfoV


02:13 PM, Oct 06, 2018

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Brad holmes

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@pyroman1ac https://t.co/ZiHjlwIXio


03:36 PM, Oct 05, 2018

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Brad holmes

@bradholmes17


RT @evansilva: #Bengals Pass Catchers Update: Tyler Eifert -- Out for year John Ross -- Groin, questionable at best A.J. Green --… https://t.co/LINlheNiFW


04:19 PM, Oct 04, 2018

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Brad holmes

@bradholmes17


@pyroman1ac https://t.co/XRG0konwbt


02:42 PM, Oct 03, 2018

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Brad holmes

@bradholmes17


RT @RotoViz: Dumpster Dives: Deep Waiver Pickups for Week 5 - by @DumpsterDiveFF #FantasyFootball https://t.co/i5xGgc7z40 https://t.co/F6XQEhLn7l


12:42 AM, Oct 03, 2018

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PyromaniacMo's Spreading the Lines Of Fantasy for Week 12 - Vegas Implied Point Totals

Spreading the Lines of Fantasy - Week 12 (2018)

Posted by PyromaniacMo on 11/23/18

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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This weekly piece is intended to shed light on two primary factors that can weigh heavily upon your fantasy football decision making. Basically, we want to use Vegas in a helpful, predictive way. The first advantage to be gained exposes teams that are likely to be amongst the highest scoring of the week. Obviously, the more touchdowns a team puts up, the more fantasy points those players will have. For this, we will look at implied team totals. Generally, any team with an opening implied team total over 24 is one to pay attention to: The higher the number, the greater their chance for scoring.

 

So, now that we have identified the hottest teams of the week, we want to prognosticate even further and decide which positions, on those teams, will get the most opportunity to score. Does Vegas tell us a high scoring team will likely be playing with a lead? In other words, are they heavy favorites? If this is the case, then such a positive game-script indicates more rushing attempts. Thus, we want RBs on those teams. If Vegas expects a high scoring team to be on the losing end of a shoot-out, in other words, a team is predicted to play from behind, this tells us to expect more of a passing attack. So, we should see a ground attack for big favorites and a passing game for the big underdogs.

 

That’s it. In essence, we are looking for high implied team totals and an indication as to which positions will likely get the most opportunity to score those points. 

 


Week 12 Vegas Implied Point Totals and spread

 

Hello Gus Edwards! The Ravens have a new RB in Edwards and an exciting QB in Lamar Jackson. There is a very viable stack in starting both of these guys. The Ravens are double-digit favorites against a soft defensive line allowing 5.1 yards to opposing RBs, only two teams allow more. In the last 5 weeks, there have only been 6 other defenses that have allowed more FF PTs per game to opposing RBs. In this one, Jackson is really RB1 and Edwards is RB2. In his debut as the starter last week, the man ran the ball 27 times for 117 yards. Now, imagine he tosses a TD and 200 passing yards? He could smash! At 26.5 implied pts, there should be plenty to go around for both Jackson and Edwards. You know they will get up on Oakland. Side note, I am taking the over on prop bets versus rushing yards put up by Jackson. There has not been as big of a dual threat QB since Vick, just minus the outrage and horror. 

 

Also at 26.5 expected pts, Philly is looking to bounce back from an embarrassing performance last week. The Giants D is down 3 Defensive Ends, and their numbers on paper reflect a tougher D when they had Damon Harrison. In the last 5 games since shipping Harrison to the Lions, only 7 teams are surrendering more fantasy goo to the oppositions running game. Philly is home and is expected to win by 6. Josh Adams will look to continue to gain touches. In his last 3 games, he is averaging exactly 7 yards per carry. However, 2 of those 3 Philly has faced a negative-game script. This should be his time to shine and rack up 12-15 carries. Still, this is a floor play as he is not heavily involved in the passing game. On the other side, Barkley is always in play regardless of game script. Because the Giants should be down and Philly has a horrendous secondary, OBJ could have a big game. In 3 of his last 4, Beckham has put up at least 20 PPR pts. He should be able to have his way with Jalen Mills who gives up .45 fantasy points per route run. 

 

The highest scoring game on the slate is the 49ers/Bucs game. The game is expected to rack up 54 pts and the spread is just a field goal. I could see this one being a shootout and a great game to stack in DFS. Fire up both QBs, both TEs, and I even like Goodwin to grab a long one. Even Humphries is a cheap DFS play. However, you have to consider Evans and Jackson. These two Bucs are in the top 4 for most air yards in the last 4 weeks. Jackson definitely benefits from Fitz-magic, but should always be considered for your GPP high floor plays. You have to love Evans. For the 49ers, as long as Brieda escapes without an injury, he should be in play as well. 

 

New England is the healthiest they have been. The Patriots have not had Gronk and Sony Michel on the field since Week 6, and at that time, Josh Gordon was not as integrated into the offense. Do not sleep on this team. Michel could have a great game if indeed it lives up to the Vegas hype as the Pats are currently 10 point favorites. New England is tied for the 2nd highest implied team total of the week at 28.5. When you adjust for schedule, the Jets rank 24th in PPR against opposing backs; they come in at 25th in standard formats against the RB position. Finally, even Julian Edelman has a great matchup versus Buster Skrine. 

 

How can you not load up Melvin Gordon as the Chargers carry the largest spread, 13 pts over the visiting Cardinals. Arizona is ranked 28th in Power situations and 2nd level tackling. Gordon is a plug and play, this situation screams usage and he is one of my cash RBs on Draft Kings.

 

The highest implied team total is 29.25 for the Indianapolis Colts. They are home and favored by 7.5 over a bad Miami D. I love Luck. The man has thrown at least 3, often 4 TDs in each of his last 7 games. Plus, Mack is healthy and in a great spot. Just last week, Aaron Jones ran for 145 against the Dolphins. Jones was the 4th RB to rack up a triple-digit day on the ground against Miami. Mack has scored 4 TDs in his last 3 games, and gone for over 100 in 50% of his last 4. 

 

Finally, Vegas is telling us Houston will face a positive game-script against the Titans. However, Tennessee has only allowed 1 triple digit rusher in the last 2 seasons. This year, nary a one and no back has even put up 18 PPR pts against them this season. So while Vegas is pointing to Lamar Miller, I am fading him in a tough spot.

 

 

 

 

 

 

PyromaniacMo with a Founder's

 

By: PyromaniacMo

 

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