Week 20
January 21, 2019
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Wheeler

@FF_Wheeler


RT @Nick_BDGE: i was joined on my channel by @amazehayes_ this week to talk business. he created @FFStatistics_ while he was at pe… https://t.co/duBnJ13RFE


08:49 PM, Jan 21, 2019

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Pyromaniac.com

@pyroman1ac


I know it probably makes me an asshole... but sign him now Pace! https://t.co/95ErElTr9E


07:26 PM, Jan 21, 2019

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Anthony staggs

@PyroStag


RT @vxmcclure23: Surprised to see Mitch Trubisky over Matt Ryan to replace Jared Goff in Pro Bowl but oh well.


06:29 PM, Jan 21, 2019

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Anthony staggs

@PyroStag


@JhawkChalk89 Yes, I lied, I got triggered and un-freinded someone on facebook after their Mitch Trubisky gloat session.


06:27 PM, Jan 21, 2019

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Anthony staggs

@PyroStag


RT @FourVerts: this is the MLK day content we all needed https://t.co/mJPmiNdVDz


06:24 PM, Jan 21, 2019

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Anthony staggs

@PyroStag


I will not be triggered by people thinking Trubisky is now great after being named to the pro-bowl. I will not be t… https://t.co/SwyRSf0Oc3


06:17 PM, Jan 21, 2019

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Pyromaniac.com

@pyroman1ac


"Narrative" had to be the most overused word of 2018.


06:05 PM, Jan 21, 2019

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Anthony staggs

@PyroStag


RT @Chris_Evans91: Hue wore leggings so he could beat the handicapped and old people onto the flight when they were called. When asked… https://t.co/4NzsfCGvJp


05:57 PM, Jan 21, 2019

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Waz

@WazNFL


@PeoplezPen It was ridiculously less expensive for me to fly into NO and then take a rental to Mobile.


05:52 PM, Jan 21, 2019

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Waz

@WazNFL


@PeoplezPen Southern hospitality.


05:51 PM, Jan 21, 2019

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Pyromaniac.com

@pyroman1ac


RT @sarah_malle: Introducing next-gen-scrapy: I took all 400+ Pass Charts from Next Gen Stats from 2017 onwards and extracted every… https://t.co/0rP6AxtxsI


05:34 PM, Jan 21, 2019

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Waz

@WazNFL


RT @AwesemoDFS: Anyone else glad we get to see Mahomes and Brees in the Pro Bowl?


04:14 PM, Jan 21, 2019

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Wheeler

@FF_Wheeler


RT @theFFanalysts: NFL Mock Draft 2.0 is here, happy #MockDraftMonday! #NFLDraft 5 Writers, 32 picks 💥 2 Top 10 Trades 🔥 3 QBs (2 ver… https://t.co/r3xBKkJX0M


02:43 PM, Jan 21, 2019

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Waz

@WazNFL


Sike.


04:52 AM, Jan 21, 2019

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Pyromaniac.com

@pyroman1ac


RT @EliotCrist: Still blows my mind that Tom Brady has played in more Superbowls (7) than road playoff games (6).


03:57 AM, Jan 21, 2019

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Pyromaniac.com

@pyroman1ac


I went 0 for 2 today...


03:54 AM, Jan 21, 2019

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Waz

@WazNFL


Gene Steratore is awfully cringe.


02:46 AM, Jan 21, 2019

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Wheeler

@FF_Wheeler


RT @majesstik1: What does the player pool look like when you use player prop bets to calculate projected points? Glad you asked, he… https://t.co/8rlFZjnZxL


05:28 PM, Jan 20, 2019

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Wheeler

@FF_Wheeler


RT @GridironSchol91: Coming Soon! 2019 #NFL #DraftProFiles with @PeoplezPen and myself. Top Rated QB: Dwayne Haskins, Ohio State… https://t.co/ViQRjx8N5V


03:46 PM, Jan 20, 2019

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Wheeler

@FF_Wheeler


RT @DP_NFL: Good Morning Cardinal fans...check out my game plan for you this off-season. Nice short and sweet!! https://t.co/3NodOls8Lg


03:46 PM, Jan 20, 2019

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Pk ripper 🤜💥🤛

@amaze652


RT @PyroStag: Incredible that this can be asked at such a young age, but if you set the line for career MVPs for Patrick Mahomes… https://t.co/aNfpbCbDgf


11:59 PM, Jan 15, 2019

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@amaze652


RT @ReggieBush: Just when you think you’ve seen it all, @ClemsonFB you guys deserve better you are world champs and this is the hon… https://t.co/oZSQfVAgBm


09:55 PM, Jan 15, 2019

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@amaze652


RT @jetswhispers: ESPN's Adam Schefter announced the Jets are finalizing deal with Gregg Williams to become their defensive coordinator.


09:49 PM, Jan 15, 2019

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@amaze652


RT @pixelnfl: Adam Gase’s introductory presser 👀 #nflart #nyjets #jets #AdamGase #footballart #jetsnation #nflart #pixelart… https://t.co/foFARjww4g


09:46 PM, Jan 15, 2019

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@amaze652


RT @GeoffLambert77: Sorry to everyone that gets the newsletter and gets the spreadsheet a day late, flaw with the newsletter that I'm g… https://t.co/un7kqCoSPm


09:46 PM, Jan 15, 2019

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Mo

@pyromaniacmo


RT @MaclandJ: So I’ve got rankings updated @DynastyHHPod I’m probably wrong according to some & giving away market inefficiencies… https://t.co/cFriuwuyYh


10:55 PM, Jan 13, 2019

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Mo

@pyromaniacmo


RT @PaulCrane7: NEW Scout's Honor podcast with Joe Flacco's most likely landing spot and the OC who may join him. Problems in PIT i… https://t.co/vsfgxPVl7V


10:46 PM, Jan 13, 2019

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Mo

@pyromaniacmo


RT @Uncle_Odds: James White #DFS If you’re taking a shot with the Patriots backfield for me it would be White #NEvsLAC #GoPats C… https://t.co/1SqVcHyhS7


06:07 PM, Jan 13, 2019

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Mo

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RT @PaulCrane7: NEW Scout's Honor podcast with more coaching news including landing spots for Mike McCarthy and Bruce Arians, coord… https://t.co/rjY7T56Nsg


06:03 PM, Jan 13, 2019

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Mo

@pyromaniacmo


Currently, in the @Ravens vs. @Chargers game, the 2 highest scoring fantasy players for each side= defenses. Accor… https://t.co/kxXxYLeOTn


08:47 PM, Jan 06, 2019

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Brad holmes

@bradholmes17


RT @pyromaniacmo: Of course. Another @pyroman1ac man, @FF_Wheeler The most accurate #FantasyFootball ranker so far this season! Well… https://t.co/49y6HFnfoV


02:13 PM, Oct 06, 2018

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@pyroman1ac https://t.co/ZiHjlwIXio


03:36 PM, Oct 05, 2018

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Brad holmes

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RT @evansilva: #Bengals Pass Catchers Update: Tyler Eifert -- Out for year John Ross -- Groin, questionable at best A.J. Green --… https://t.co/LINlheNiFW


04:19 PM, Oct 04, 2018

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Brad holmes

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@pyroman1ac https://t.co/XRG0konwbt


02:42 PM, Oct 03, 2018

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Brad holmes

@bradholmes17


RT @RotoViz: Dumpster Dives: Deep Waiver Pickups for Week 5 - by @DumpsterDiveFF #FantasyFootball https://t.co/i5xGgc7z40 https://t.co/F6XQEhLn7l


12:42 AM, Oct 03, 2018

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PyromaniacMo's Spreading the Lines Of Fantasy for Week 14 - Vegas Implied Point Totals

Spreading the Lines of Fantasy - Week 14 (2018)

Posted by PyromaniacMo on 12/06/18

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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This weekly piece is intended to shed light on two primary factors that can weigh heavily upon your fantasy football decision making. Basically, we want to use Vegas in a helpful, predictive way. The first advantage to be gained exposes teams that are likely to be amongst the highest scoring of the week. Obviously, the more touchdowns a team puts up, the more fantasy points those players will have. For this, we will look at implied team totals. Generally, any team with an opening implied team total over 24 is one to pay attention to: The higher the number, the greater their chance for scoring.


So, now that we have identified the hottest teams of the week, we want to prognosticate even further and decide which positions, on those teams, will get the most opportunity to score. Does Vegas tell us a high scoring team will likely be playing with a lead? In other words, are they heavy favorites? If this is the case, then such a positive game-script indicates more rushing attempts. Thus, we want RBs on those teams. If Vegas expects a high scoring team to be on the losing end of a shoot-out, in other words a team is predicted to play from behind, this tells us to expect more of a passing attack. So, we should see a ground attack for big favorites and a passing game for the big underdogs.

 

That’s it. In essence, we are looking for high implied team totals and an indication as to which positions will likely get the most opportunity to score those points. 

 


Vegas Implied Point Total Week 14

 


Vegas is telling us Green Bay should expect positive game script against the Falcons and are expected to win by 6. They are expected to score just over 27 points and that number is trending upwards. Aaron Jones is the guy that should see the benefit of this situation. The Falcons rank 31st in DVOA (Defensive Value Over Average) according to Football Outsiders. Plus, the Falcons have allowed the most RB receptions since 2016. Also, you have to like D. Adams, he leads all WR with 25 red zone targets. The Packers, with a new coaching philosophy, could look to highlight Aaron Rodgers in their first game under an interim coach, Joe Philbin. Green Bay and Atlanta both rank in the top 10 for rate of play when the game is within 6 points. That suggests even more opportunities on both sides to put up fantasy numbers. Atlanta has allowed 13 different RBs to put up double-digit PPR days against them this season. Considering Matt Ryan will likely need to pass to stay in this one, his WRs are decent bets. In the last 5 weeks, only 4 other defenses have surrendered more PPR points on a per game basis to opposing WRs. Green Bay is allowing the 7th most passes per game to the opposing teams WR1. 

 

The highest scoring game on the entire slate (57 O/U) is Tampa, as they welcome the Saints. Both teams are in the top 4 for most fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs. The 8 point spread suggests plenty of opportunity for the New Orleans running back duo of Kamara and Ingram. As far as the Saints WRs, Michael Thomas is currently listed as Questionable and did not practice Wednesday. Just keep an eye out. The Saints have the highest implied team total (32.5) of all teams in Week 14. The Bucs have struggled in their secondary and currently have 3 players on IR and 3 secondary players listed as Questionable. Winston could be a great start. Chris Godwin will face Apple, who has been getting picked on. Perhaps the best matchup comes from Humphries. He has proven himself to be one of Winston’s favorite targets. Not only that, he will face PJ Williams. According to Pro Football Focus, Williams carries the 3rd lowest grade of any starting slot corner in Week 14.

 

The second highest scoring game (53 O/U) is Baltimore at KC. I am not wasting any breath on the Chiefs, if you own ‘em, you are playing ‘em. Lamar Jackson is not on the injury report and will start again. We have yet to see his ceiling and KC has surrendered the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing gunslingers in the last 5 weeks. In fact, KC has allowed 4 QB rushing TDs on the season. No other NFL team has allowed more. Plus, they are 2nd on the season for most fantasy points allowed to RBs. Gus Edwards is not listed on the injury report for Week 14. The only deterrent would be if KC gets up early. We have yet to see Lamar Jackson rely on his arm. If the Ravens can play D and stay in this one, Lamar could have a day. If it gets out of hand quickly, then it will be a risky play. That said, it is the playoffs, and he has huge upside. We are in this thing to win it all, not to finish 2nd. There is a high correlation between playing a running QB with the team’s RB1.

 

If you know one thing about Vegas, they love, or rather, the public loves to bet on the Patriots. The Pats travel to face Miami and are 8 point road favorites. Do not get sucked in with that spread. Personally, I am taking the points and laying money on the Dolphins. The Pats are just 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 meetings in Miami. That said, with a high implied team total, and heavy road favorites, the game script should lend itself to the Patriots running backs. Yes I love Sony Michel. Typically, White is in play when they need to pass. However, Burkhead is back in the mix and of course there is always C Patterson; by the way, Patterson is the minimum price on Yahoo DFS. He is by no means a cash play, but in tournaments, he could be a way to reach some of the more expensive players. 

 

The Chargers are carrying the 3rd highest implied team total (31) as they are home to the Bengals. Not only that, but they carry a 14 point spread, highest of week 14. Clearly, this screams the ground attack for LA. This is one to watch. Gordon is still Questionable as of Wednesday and did not practice. Last week, Ekeler saw the most RB snaps, but it was Justin Jackson who had the better day. Ekeler has always been more of the pass catcher. Look, it is a one-game sample size, but between the two, I roll Jackson. The Bengals have absolutely been the worst, as they have surrendered the most fantasy points this season to the RB position.

 

The Steelers are traveling west to face Oakland. This game carries the 2nd highest spread (11) and Pitt has the 2nd highest implied team total (31.25). Conner is going to be out. While Jaylen Samuels is getting the start, he is going to split time with Ridley. Both should be huge pickups this week. It is possible both guys put up a decent day. The Raiders are allowing the 6th most RB adjusted line yards. Without adjustment, they are surrendering the 3rd most by the numbers letting opposing backs average 5.08 per carry. Ridley is 29 years old and past his prime. Samuels is the rookie and by far, the one to own in dynasty.  Considering they are giving him first crack, this is his opportunity and he is the one I would roll with between the two.

 

Finally, the Rams and Chicago are expected to put up the 3rd most points (52.5) in Week 14. Trubisky is looking like he will be back under center. The Rams have the talent to overcome the Bears D. Obviously, you are starting your Rams. Cohen is always a good start for the Bears, as well as Trubisky, as long as he is healthy. This one could rack up the points. 

 

 

 

 

 

PyromaniacMo with a Founder's

 

By: PyromaniacMo

 

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