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December 14, 2018
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Anthony staggs

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@Adam87930771 @_PeteLaw Yeah I think some small breaks on tiers may change


08:18 PM, Dec 14, 2018

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Wheeler

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@lowkeykoller @FantasyPros @SmolaDS @mrhill9169 @WazNFL @Pat_Thorman @NMariano53 @andyholloway @PFF_NateJahnke… https://t.co/NiydWPTU7t


08:14 PM, Dec 14, 2018

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Wheeler

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RT @PyroStag: Been working on my 2019 Redraft Standard Rankings for the past few days, here is how the way to early version of my… https://t.co/JszPF2GkxN


07:54 PM, Dec 14, 2018

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Anthony staggs

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@MFHHLIVE Bills. Aaron Jones. Play Brees. Second back is Carson for me.


07:14 PM, Dec 14, 2018

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Anthony staggs

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RT @kfishbain: Bears practice report DNP: Eddie Jackson (shin) Limited: Bilal Nichols (knee) Full: Allen Robinson (hip) All three… https://t.co/VBTbG1dGQy


07:06 PM, Dec 14, 2018

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Anthony staggs

@PyroStag


@pavankambhatla Yeah tier 2 and three can pretty much be combined in my mind.


07:05 PM, Dec 14, 2018

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Anthony staggs

@PyroStag


@BleedGoldandRed Yeah, Keenan was one of the tougher ones, probably will end up with Thielen over Keenan and Allen in that next tier.


06:52 PM, Dec 14, 2018

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Waz

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👀 https://t.co/zxMPdVnR4Q


04:57 PM, Dec 14, 2018

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Wheeler

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RT @friscojosh: I wrote about Washington and Kaepernick. https://t.co/QoSgOInq2g


04:40 PM, Dec 14, 2018

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Wheeler

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RT @ScottFish24: Fantasy football league fills 32 carts for Toys for Tots https://t.co/eq40i8dTMj via @KARE11 #fantasycares


04:21 PM, Dec 14, 2018

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Wheeler

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RT @Pat_Thorman: Gotta love when football twitter sets aside their differences and comes together for a good cause, like piling on a loud-mouthed clown.


04:19 PM, Dec 14, 2018

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Pyromaniac.com

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RT @wolfejosh: Physics is visually SATISFYING. Ice––on a trampoline. https://t.co/8XvVRaDyiH


06:35 AM, Dec 14, 2018

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Pyromaniac.com

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RT @MrGeorgeWallace: Listen, before your sorry ass clicks 'reply all' ask yourself if every damn person you're replyin' to needs to know… https://t.co/RXGCHp0yiO


06:31 AM, Dec 14, 2018

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05:37 AM, Dec 14, 2018

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He Served the Longest Sentence of Any Innocent U.S. Inmate https://t.co/E2kfVw1XEI


05:13 AM, Dec 14, 2018

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Waz

@WazNFL


@b_d_cobb The icon is set up for the player by default. Some still show as their old team (ie. Fitzmagic) but the s… https://t.co/v7hLCFtvpb


10:53 PM, Dec 13, 2018

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Mo

@pyromaniacmo


@LateRoundQB Even failed to mention Hill’s nagging injury.


10:39 PM, Dec 13, 2018

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Pyromaniac.com

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RT @CivilEats: 15% of @SierraNevada's employees were displaced by the campfire. The brewery sprung into action, and others followe… https://t.co/vBynKSEt68


10:31 PM, Dec 13, 2018

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Mo

@pyromaniacmo


See how Vegas can help your Fantasy Football decisions for NFL Week 15 - check out the chart and the write-up on… https://t.co/3LFihqRKbk


10:17 PM, Dec 13, 2018

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Waz

@WazNFL


@troywinger Jackson for sure, and probably Williams for the other.


09:08 PM, Dec 13, 2018

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Waz

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@b_d_cobb Hey man, I'm not sure where you were looking at but my Week 15 ranks weren't published until about an hou… https://t.co/99di82lKxm


09:07 PM, Dec 13, 2018

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Waz

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@RyanHodge @stephenasmith Prepare for a pivot to Virgil Green.


09:00 PM, Dec 13, 2018

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Mo

@pyromaniacmo


RT @pyroman1ac: Spreading the Lines of Fantasy for Week 15 by @pyromaniacmo https://t.co/a91zBcoQVM https://t.co/bR9kf11Vww


06:05 PM, Dec 13, 2018

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Mo

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JuJu Smith to face Daryl Worley from Oakland. No other starting CB in Week 14 is averaging more fantasy points allo… https://t.co/TcxQYjO8jr


09:22 PM, Dec 08, 2018

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Mo

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RT @fantasysixpack: The Fantasy Edge Podacst w/ @RRSSavill @JChan_811 @KevinMHuo Fantasy Football Week 14 🏈 DST Stream-0-Matic… https://t.co/wvn87xqarg


08:43 PM, Dec 08, 2018

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Pk ripper 🤜💥🤛

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@RapSheet https://t.co/FrlXlyFR2N


09:49 PM, Nov 22, 2018

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@FinsBroadcaster The Outsiders C. Thomas Howell.Ralph Macchio. Patrick Swayze.RobLowe.Emilio Estevez.Tom Cruise.Di… https://t.co/NFDHuG2xRE


01:38 PM, Nov 18, 2018

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RT @DomiNateFF: Who did you bench on your #FantasyFootball teams in #Week10 that you regret? I’ll start…I played Fitzpatrick over… https://t.co/GZoHOiB8U7


10:54 AM, Nov 12, 2018

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RT @AdvSportsLogic: Before setting those line ups, check out out updated ranks. #FantasyFootball: Week 10 Updated Rankings QB:… https://t.co/oArauvIKdX


10:24 PM, Nov 11, 2018

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RT @FFD260: Ryan Fitzpatrick attempting to throw the lead block down. #Bucs #Redskins #NFL https://t.co/0Te1hbJEWJ


10:16 PM, Nov 11, 2018

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Brad holmes

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RT @pyromaniacmo: Of course. Another @pyroman1ac man, @FF_Wheeler The most accurate #FantasyFootball ranker so far this season! Well… https://t.co/49y6HFnfoV


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03:36 PM, Oct 05, 2018

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RT @evansilva: #Bengals Pass Catchers Update: Tyler Eifert -- Out for year John Ross -- Groin, questionable at best A.J. Green --… https://t.co/LINlheNiFW


04:19 PM, Oct 04, 2018

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02:42 PM, Oct 03, 2018

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Brad holmes

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RT @RotoViz: Dumpster Dives: Deep Waiver Pickups for Week 5 - by @DumpsterDiveFF #FantasyFootball https://t.co/i5xGgc7z40 https://t.co/F6XQEhLn7l


12:42 AM, Oct 03, 2018

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PyromaniacMo's Spreading the Lines Of Fantasy for Week 4 - Vegas Implied Point Totals

Spreading the Lines of Fantasy - Week 4 (2018)

Posted by PyromaniacMo on 09/26/18

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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This weekly piece is intended to shed light on two primary factors that can weigh heavily upon your fantasy football decision making. Basically, we want to use Vegas in a helpful, predictive way. The first advantage to be gained exposes teams that are likely to be amongst the highest scoring of the week. Obviously, the more touchdowns a team puts up, the more fantasy points those players will have. For this, we will look at implied team totals. Generally, any team with an opening implied team total over 24 is one to pay attention to: The higher the number, the greater their chance for scoring.

 

So, now that we have identified the hottest teams of the week, we want to prognosticate even further and decide which positions, on those teams, will get the most opportunity to score. Does Vegas tell us a high scoring team will likely be playing with a lead? In other words, are they heavy favorites? If this is the case, then such a positive game-script indicates more rushing attempts. Thus, we want RBs on those teams. If Vegas expects a high scoring team to be on the losing end of a shoot-out, in other words, a team is predicted to play from behind, this tells us to expect more of a passing attack. So, we should see a ground attack for big favorites and a passing game for the big underdogs.

That’s it. In essence, we are looking for high implied team totals and an indication as to which positions will likely get the most opportunity to score those points. 

 

Final note, I use the opening lines as generally, most of the line movement that occurs over the week leading up to the game is a result of betting trends. However, sometimes that is not the case. Perhaps an injury has occurred, or the opening line was set before a team played on Monday night. Essentially, there are instances where the line movement is NOT due to betting trends. In these instances, you want to pay attention to “notable line movement.” I place this at the very bottom of the chart. Any numbers listed there are more accurate reflections for that game. 

 

 

Spreading the Lines chart - Week 4 - Vegas Implied Point Total


 

Although this is a Thursday game, thus the players will be playing on a short week, Vegas feels fairly certain that the Rams have a great shot at scoring points. Because the spread opened at nearly a TD, the Rams ground game should get the work. That said, the Vikings will be looking for redemption after losing to the Bills. An RB has yet to score a TD on the ground or through the air against the Vikings so far this season. 4for4 creates a schedule adjusted fantasy points allowed chart. When looking at this, the Vikings come in as the toughest defense for opposing backs to score against. So, while you should be aware of the Vikings formidable defense thus far, you know the Rams will score, you know the Rams will get into the red zone. In 2018, no other running back has more rushing attempts in the red zone than Gurley (18). My money is on Gurley to get the first TD for RB against the Vikings this season.

 

The Bills have the 3rd worst Defensive DVOA (Defensive Value Over Average) according to Football Outsiders. Green Bay has an implied team total of just north of 27 points and they carry the highest spread of the week at 10.5 at opening. This screams ground game. Aaron Jones looked great in his first game back. The question, will Jones get enough work as the Packers seem content to use running back by community. He is worth a flier in DFS. While I am loving what I am seeing in redraft from Jones and know the situation is prime, I may wait until he starts to get more looks with regularity as he only had 7 looks in Week 3. 

 

Jacksonville is a 9 point home favorite at opening. That number has dwindled slightly, likely due to Fornette’s status still being in question. Either way, such a number suggests a positive game script. While their implied point total leaves something to be desired, at this point, Fournette is expected to return to the offense. Keep an eye on this, as many expected him to get cleared at the start of the week, and he still carries an injury designation. If he gets in some practice time, owners would breath a sigh of relief in the week’s build up to Sunday. When he is there, they tend to lean on him. If the game goes as expected, they will be playing with a lead, and Fournette should get a lion share of the offensive looks. 

 

New England, a perennial Vegas favorite, is expected to score nearly 4 TDs. Although the offense has not resembled the juggernaut we are accustomed to seeing, they face a vulnerable Miami run D. According to 4for4’s Schedule Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed, the Dolphins rank 28th worst against opposing PPR backs. As usual, fantasy owners are playing whack a mole with the Patriot’s backfield. However, Burkhead went on IR Wednesday. Sony Michel is tied for the most rushing attempts with Burkhead despite playing in one less game. His recent usage, plus the recent Burkhead news should give owners confidence to play Michel in Week 4. James White is the pass catcher and Kenyon Barner is merely a gadget play, possible dart throw in GPPs. 

 

Atlanta is home and is expected to beat the Bengals by 5. If so, we could see another strong game for Coleman. The Bengals are giving up the 7th most rushing yards per game through the first 3 weeks. This game opened at 48 and is now hitting 51. We know both teams have the potential to put up points. Both teams are top 6 in NFL scoring on a point per game basis thus far in 2018. This game could go to a shoot-out. You have to like T Coleman for Atlanta as they should have a favorable game script. On the other side, Gio is a great pass catcher and we have seen Boyd and Green both step up recently. Keep an eye on AJ’s practice reports and injury status, but we could easily see a lot of passing action from the Bengals. Atlanta is currently giving up the most receptions to opposing RBs. This should not come as a surprise. In fact, for the past three NFL seasons, the Falcons finished each of those seasons allowing the most receptions to opposing backs. So, yeah, I am setting and forgetting Gio in full PPR leagues. 

 

New Orleans opened with a 26.5 expected team total, a number that has barely risen. We know they can put up the points. Eli Apple is Questionable and a liability in the secondary when starting. Michael Thomas has a smash matchup against Janoris Jenkins. You know you are starting Kamara and Thomas, without question.

 

With Beathard taking the rains in San Fran, the spread is climbing in favor of the Chargers. LAC had the 2nd highest implied team total at opening and the spread has climbed to double digits. This screams positive gamescript and yes we expect the RBs to score. You are certainly starting Gordon and Ekeler as well. In standard scoring, Ekeler is ranked 13th. Both guys will get plenty of looks and should have no problem rolling to a big day at home. 

 

Pit is home to Baltimore. This game opened and has stayed at 51 over/under with just a 3 point favorite for the Stealers. Here is another game you could potentially stack. Flacco has been better than anyone expected. He was a top 12 performer in the first 2 weeks. Pittsburgh ranks 27th when you adjust for schedule against opposing QBs. Side note, Crabtree will square off against Cody Sensabaugh, who according to PFF, is giving up the most fantasy point per route run (.6). This is more than any other starting CB through the first 3 weeks. 

 

Finally, the Monday night game will see Mahomie and the Chiefs. This is pegged by Vegas to be the highest scoring affair of Week 4. KC is expected to score over 29 points. Looking at 4for4’s Schedule Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed, KC ranks 31st against opposing RBs in PPR formats and 28th in standard scoring. This could be the game where R Freeman gets lose. You know you are starting your Chiefs. Hill has the most favorable matchup against Bradley Roby. Plus Sammy Watkins will face Isaac Yiadom, who is allowing the most fantasy points per route run of any starting Denver CB (.37).

 

 

 

 

 

PyromaniacMo with a Founder's

 

By: PyromaniacMo

 

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