Week 7
October 20, 2018
Articles
Newsfeeds
SHARE

Pyro® Twitterfeed

Sxfrtkuc_normal

Pyromaniac.com

@pyroman1ac


@cokedriver82 If someone will give you OBJ for Ingram, do it.


04:09 PM, Oct 20, 2018

1

See Pyromaniac.com other Tweets

Ls8qcqzp_normal

Wheeler

@FF_Wheeler


RT @DynastyWarZone: 🚨🚨New Podcast Alert 🚨🚨 ⚠️ ⚠️ ⚠️Warning ⚠️ ⚠️ ⚠️ ⁦@DFFMemphis⁩ was both sleep deprived and under the influence in… https://t.co/Z1P0GuX3xB


12:34 PM, Oct 20, 2018

0

See Wheeler other Tweets

Ls8qcqzp_normal

Wheeler

@FF_Wheeler


RT @ClutchFantasy: 2009 under Todd Haley Larry Johnson totaled 453yds, 65yds per game over 7 games. Jamaal Charles took over and total… https://t.co/dmZ98welaG


12:30 PM, Oct 20, 2018

0

See Wheeler other Tweets

Ls8qcqzp_normal

Wheeler

@FF_Wheeler


RT @FFStatistics_: Trying to build your Week 7 #DFS lineup? @SMich_5 has some statistics you should take a look at before building yo… https://t.co/ciEBa7lcdW


12:28 PM, Oct 20, 2018

0

See Wheeler other Tweets

Ls8qcqzp_normal

Wheeler

@FF_Wheeler


RT @DP_NFL: 🚨My Top 5 RBs of Week 6🚨 Agree or Disagree? Let me know your list! #NFL #Top5 #DnD #LARams #GiantsPride #Chargers… https://t.co/HPO0Azit7w


11:19 AM, Oct 20, 2018

0

See Wheeler other Tweets

Ls8qcqzp_normal

Wheeler

@FF_Wheeler


RT @GeoffLambert77: Did u miss @GoingFor_2's 2018 Week 7 Sit/Start (#FantasyFootball) by @MikeKelleyDLP https://t.co/OaO5OGsirI https://t.co/Mu4UUcHljS


11:19 AM, Oct 20, 2018

0

See Wheeler other Tweets

Dp7nlqsv4aey2e-

Sxfrtkuc_normal

Pyromaniac.com

@pyroman1ac


My baby... #Daisy https://t.co/oi3P3AvUhH


04:38 AM, Oct 20, 2018

3

See Pyromaniac.com other Tweets

Sxfrtkuc_normal

Pyromaniac.com

@pyroman1ac


Danny Glover saying "Riggs" https://t.co/CZ40ULyu9g


03:58 AM, Oct 20, 2018

0

See Pyromaniac.com other Tweets

Sxfrtkuc_normal

Pyromaniac.com

@pyroman1ac


Is turning off your notifications the ultimate productivity hack? https://t.co/ygbM3LZKYf


03:47 AM, Oct 20, 2018

0

See Pyromaniac.com other Tweets

Dp6-wffwwaamvfp

Sxfrtkuc_normal

Pyromaniac.com

@pyroman1ac


Never forget Keith Moon's genius. #TheWho https://t.co/Y43QKyOVXP


03:31 AM, Oct 20, 2018

1

See Pyromaniac.com other Tweets

Lw5fkocm_normal

Mo

@pyromaniacmo


@KallmeAlex I do. The implied pt total much higher. I think TB can shoot out this week. Dont trust Mariotta what so ever


12:39 AM, Oct 20, 2018

1

See Mo other Tweets

Qmwftfwy_normal

Anthony staggs

@PyroStag


RT @MichaelKistNFL: Have a couple corrections to make on some INC passes but the main thing I was trying to do was chart Cam Newton's l… https://t.co/ESaTpBmx9n


10:06 PM, Oct 19, 2018

0

See Anthony Staggs other Tweets

Qmwftfwy_normal

Anthony staggs

@PyroStag


@PeoplezPen No issues with Landry still in prime and receivers aren’t sure things even in high draft spots. Organiz… https://t.co/BvG43pcfg0


10:05 PM, Oct 19, 2018

3

See Anthony Staggs other Tweets

Dp5hffjx4aamkyr

Qmwftfwy_normal

Anthony staggs

@PyroStag


RT @Reflog_18: How the John Dorsey and Hue Jackson conversation about Carlos Hyde went down... https://t.co/qt4OPjFL34


09:57 PM, Oct 19, 2018

0

See Anthony Staggs other Tweets

Qmwftfwy_normal

Anthony staggs

@PyroStag


@pyroman1ac Sending the fiancé immediately.


09:53 PM, Oct 19, 2018

3

See Anthony Staggs other Tweets

Qmwftfwy_normal

Anthony staggs

@PyroStag


@DtwMimms That could pay off if you have RB depth, depends what the roster looks like.


09:43 PM, Oct 19, 2018

1

See Anthony Staggs other Tweets

Lw5fkocm_normal

Mo

@pyromaniacmo


Chris Godwin is just $4.6K on #DraftKings He has eclipsed 13 DK points in 4 of 5 games this season. Last week, w/Wi… https://t.co/CraZkO6lVT


11:25 PM, Oct 18, 2018

2

See Mo other Tweets

Lw5fkocm_normal

Mo

@pyromaniacmo


RT @pyroman1ac: A weekly weapon of mass destruction chart and write up by @pyromaniacmo https://t.co/2wTVgKfvqz


11:18 PM, Oct 18, 2018

0

See Mo other Tweets

Ukwcolve_normal

Waz

@WazNFL


@andybehrens When did Brad do that?


02:01 AM, Oct 18, 2018

2

See Waz other Tweets

Ukwcolve_normal

Waz

@WazNFL


@andybehrens I started Brock Osweiler in #SFB8 last week. I sooooo know what I'm doing.


01:57 AM, Oct 18, 2018

1

See Waz other Tweets

Ukwcolve_normal

Waz

@WazNFL


@andybehrens Nothing beats a good Wednesday night roid sesh.


01:54 AM, Oct 18, 2018

1

See Waz other Tweets

Lw5fkocm_normal

Mo

@pyromaniacmo


RT @bob_lung: In #FantasyFootball, TE's are usually the most inconsistent group. However, so far, this year, there are EIGHT TE's… https://t.co/B6PjMRIasa


01:35 AM, Oct 18, 2018

0

See Mo other Tweets

Lw5fkocm_normal

Mo

@pyromaniacmo


RT @fantasysixpack: NBA DFS Main Slate Breakdown via @WeTlkFntsySprts Keith looks at the 11 game slate using the Wisdom of the Crowd p… https://t.co/ECYt1vjSXe


01:35 AM, Oct 18, 2018

0

See Mo other Tweets

R_npje3r_normal

Pk ripper 🤜💥🤛

@amaze652


RT @krich1532: If you want some laughs, run through this thread real quick. This tweet wasn’t even about myself, this was my react… https://t.co/iyhCaFlBIe


08:51 AM, Oct 16, 2018

0

See PK Ripper 🤜💥🤛 other Tweets

R_npje3r_normal

Pk ripper 🤜💥🤛

@amaze652


RT @LeviAndrewFF: Rushing Attempt Leaders for Week 6 Todd Gurley-28 Ezekiel Elliott-25 Sony Michel-24 Latavius Murray-24 James Conne… https://t.co/VLtIJpIwNb


08:49 AM, Oct 16, 2018

0

See PK Ripper 🤜💥🤛 other Tweets

R_npje3r_normal

Pk ripper 🤜💥🤛

@amaze652


RT @LeviAndrewFF: Target Leaders for Week 6 Davante Adams-16 Adam Thielen-15 Julio Jones-14 Tyreek Hill-12 Alshon Jeffery-12 Sammy… https://t.co/pcVtFZOwu7


08:49 AM, Oct 16, 2018

0

See PK Ripper 🤜💥🤛 other Tweets

R_npje3r_normal

Pk ripper 🤜💥🤛

@amaze652


RT @edwardraus: Monday Night Rants: 10/15/2018 - Week 6, MNF, MLB Playoffs and There is Hope for Their w/ @zaragozaanthony https://t.co/Xw8iSQUVhP


08:49 AM, Oct 16, 2018

0

See PK Ripper 🤜💥🤛 other Tweets

R_npje3r_normal

Pk ripper 🤜💥🤛

@amaze652


RT @DomiNateFF: Here it is! I love me some Davante Adams this #FantasyFootball season! HUGE potential & a real chance as the #1 WR… https://t.co/XIXLpKL7wz


08:49 AM, Oct 16, 2018

0

See PK Ripper 🤜💥🤛 other Tweets

Ukwcolve_normal

Waz

@WazNFL


That Tyrell Williams TD catch was #good.


06:25 PM, Oct 14, 2018

1

See Waz other Tweets

Dpzayzuxcaewpbt

Ukwcolve_normal

Waz

@WazNFL


Even Krusty the Clown tilts on Sundays. https://t.co/vW3MxrfFe8


01:14 PM, Oct 13, 2018

12

See Waz other Tweets

Splxltwd_normal

Brad holmes

@bradholmes17


RT @pyromaniacmo: Of course. Another @pyroman1ac man, @FF_Wheeler The most accurate #FantasyFootball ranker so far this season! Well… https://t.co/49y6HFnfoV


02:13 PM, Oct 06, 2018

0

See Brad Holmes other Tweets

Splxltwd_normal

Brad holmes

@bradholmes17


@pyroman1ac https://t.co/ZiHjlwIXio


03:36 PM, Oct 05, 2018

0

See Brad Holmes other Tweets

Splxltwd_normal

Brad holmes

@bradholmes17


RT @evansilva: #Bengals Pass Catchers Update: Tyler Eifert -- Out for year John Ross -- Groin, questionable at best A.J. Green --… https://t.co/LINlheNiFW


04:19 PM, Oct 04, 2018

0

See Brad Holmes other Tweets

Splxltwd_normal

Brad holmes

@bradholmes17


@pyroman1ac https://t.co/XRG0konwbt


02:42 PM, Oct 03, 2018

0

See Brad Holmes other Tweets

Splxltwd_normal

Brad holmes

@bradholmes17


RT @RotoViz: Dumpster Dives: Deep Waiver Pickups for Week 5 - by @DumpsterDiveFF #FantasyFootball https://t.co/i5xGgc7z40 https://t.co/F6XQEhLn7l


12:42 AM, Oct 03, 2018

0

See Brad Holmes other Tweets

PyromaniacMo's Spreading the Lines Of Fantasy for Week 4 - Vegas Implied Point Totals

Spreading the Lines of Fantasy - Week 4 (2018)

Posted by PyromaniacMo on 09/26/18

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


More Articals

SHARE ON

This weekly piece is intended to shed light on two primary factors that can weigh heavily upon your fantasy football decision making. Basically, we want to use Vegas in a helpful, predictive way. The first advantage to be gained exposes teams that are likely to be amongst the highest scoring of the week. Obviously, the more touchdowns a team puts up, the more fantasy points those players will have. For this, we will look at implied team totals. Generally, any team with an opening implied team total over 24 is one to pay attention to: The higher the number, the greater their chance for scoring.

 

So, now that we have identified the hottest teams of the week, we want to prognosticate even further and decide which positions, on those teams, will get the most opportunity to score. Does Vegas tell us a high scoring team will likely be playing with a lead? In other words, are they heavy favorites? If this is the case, then such a positive game-script indicates more rushing attempts. Thus, we want RBs on those teams. If Vegas expects a high scoring team to be on the losing end of a shoot-out, in other words, a team is predicted to play from behind, this tells us to expect more of a passing attack. So, we should see a ground attack for big favorites and a passing game for the big underdogs.

That’s it. In essence, we are looking for high implied team totals and an indication as to which positions will likely get the most opportunity to score those points. 

 

Final note, I use the opening lines as generally, most of the line movement that occurs over the week leading up to the game is a result of betting trends. However, sometimes that is not the case. Perhaps an injury has occurred, or the opening line was set before a team played on Monday night. Essentially, there are instances where the line movement is NOT due to betting trends. In these instances, you want to pay attention to “notable line movement.” I place this at the very bottom of the chart. Any numbers listed there are more accurate reflections for that game. 

 

 

Spreading the Lines chart - Week 4 - Vegas Implied Point Total


 

Although this is a Thursday game, thus the players will be playing on a short week, Vegas feels fairly certain that the Rams have a great shot at scoring points. Because the spread opened at nearly a TD, the Rams ground game should get the work. That said, the Vikings will be looking for redemption after losing to the Bills. An RB has yet to score a TD on the ground or through the air against the Vikings so far this season. 4for4 creates a schedule adjusted fantasy points allowed chart. When looking at this, the Vikings come in as the toughest defense for opposing backs to score against. So, while you should be aware of the Vikings formidable defense thus far, you know the Rams will score, you know the Rams will get into the red zone. In 2018, no other running back has more rushing attempts in the red zone than Gurley (18). My money is on Gurley to get the first TD for RB against the Vikings this season.

 

The Bills have the 3rd worst Defensive DVOA (Defensive Value Over Average) according to Football Outsiders. Green Bay has an implied team total of just north of 27 points and they carry the highest spread of the week at 10.5 at opening. This screams ground game. Aaron Jones looked great in his first game back. The question, will Jones get enough work as the Packers seem content to use running back by community. He is worth a flier in DFS. While I am loving what I am seeing in redraft from Jones and know the situation is prime, I may wait until he starts to get more looks with regularity as he only had 7 looks in Week 3. 

 

Jacksonville is a 9 point home favorite at opening. That number has dwindled slightly, likely due to Fornette’s status still being in question. Either way, such a number suggests a positive game script. While their implied point total leaves something to be desired, at this point, Fournette is expected to return to the offense. Keep an eye on this, as many expected him to get cleared at the start of the week, and he still carries an injury designation. If he gets in some practice time, owners would breath a sigh of relief in the week’s build up to Sunday. When he is there, they tend to lean on him. If the game goes as expected, they will be playing with a lead, and Fournette should get a lion share of the offensive looks. 

 

New England, a perennial Vegas favorite, is expected to score nearly 4 TDs. Although the offense has not resembled the juggernaut we are accustomed to seeing, they face a vulnerable Miami run D. According to 4for4’s Schedule Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed, the Dolphins rank 28th worst against opposing PPR backs. As usual, fantasy owners are playing whack a mole with the Patriot’s backfield. However, Burkhead went on IR Wednesday. Sony Michel is tied for the most rushing attempts with Burkhead despite playing in one less game. His recent usage, plus the recent Burkhead news should give owners confidence to play Michel in Week 4. James White is the pass catcher and Kenyon Barner is merely a gadget play, possible dart throw in GPPs. 

 

Atlanta is home and is expected to beat the Bengals by 5. If so, we could see another strong game for Coleman. The Bengals are giving up the 7th most rushing yards per game through the first 3 weeks. This game opened at 48 and is now hitting 51. We know both teams have the potential to put up points. Both teams are top 6 in NFL scoring on a point per game basis thus far in 2018. This game could go to a shoot-out. You have to like T Coleman for Atlanta as they should have a favorable game script. On the other side, Gio is a great pass catcher and we have seen Boyd and Green both step up recently. Keep an eye on AJ’s practice reports and injury status, but we could easily see a lot of passing action from the Bengals. Atlanta is currently giving up the most receptions to opposing RBs. This should not come as a surprise. In fact, for the past three NFL seasons, the Falcons finished each of those seasons allowing the most receptions to opposing backs. So, yeah, I am setting and forgetting Gio in full PPR leagues. 

 

New Orleans opened with a 26.5 expected team total, a number that has barely risen. We know they can put up the points. Eli Apple is Questionable and a liability in the secondary when starting. Michael Thomas has a smash matchup against Janoris Jenkins. You know you are starting Kamara and Thomas, without question.

 

With Beathard taking the rains in San Fran, the spread is climbing in favor of the Chargers. LAC had the 2nd highest implied team total at opening and the spread has climbed to double digits. This screams positive gamescript and yes we expect the RBs to score. You are certainly starting Gordon and Ekeler as well. In standard scoring, Ekeler is ranked 13th. Both guys will get plenty of looks and should have no problem rolling to a big day at home. 

 

Pit is home to Baltimore. This game opened and has stayed at 51 over/under with just a 3 point favorite for the Stealers. Here is another game you could potentially stack. Flacco has been better than anyone expected. He was a top 12 performer in the first 2 weeks. Pittsburgh ranks 27th when you adjust for schedule against opposing QBs. Side note, Crabtree will square off against Cody Sensabaugh, who according to PFF, is giving up the most fantasy point per route run (.6). This is more than any other starting CB through the first 3 weeks. 

 

Finally, the Monday night game will see Mahomie and the Chiefs. This is pegged by Vegas to be the highest scoring affair of Week 4. KC is expected to score over 29 points. Looking at 4for4’s Schedule Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed, KC ranks 31st against opposing RBs in PPR formats and 28th in standard scoring. This could be the game where R Freeman gets lose. You know you are starting your Chiefs. Hill has the most favorable matchup against Bradley Roby. Plus Sammy Watkins will face Isaac Yiadom, who is allowing the most fantasy points per route run of any starting Denver CB (.37).

 

 

 

 

 

PyromaniacMo with a Founder's

 

By: PyromaniacMo

 

Subscribe to the Pyro Podcast: http://iTunes.com/Podcasts/PyroPodcast

Like us on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/pyromaniac 

Follow us on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/pyroman1ac

Become a Pyro Pro: http://bit.ly/1K5Af4R