Week 24
February 19, 2019
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RT @CNET: NASA citizen scientist discovers first ancient dead star with peculiar rings. https://t.co/6lnwKhvM1a https://t.co/QbxEmhG4NY


02:33 AM, Feb 20, 2019

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@JhawkChalk89 Full, sorry


02:13 AM, Feb 20, 2019

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@theDude_Z @friscojosh Sorry man, just trying to help you catch it early!


01:46 AM, Feb 20, 2019

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RT @clip_cast: The @GOATdistrict team discusses the Flacco trade. I didn’t realize that he has never made a Pro Bowl. Check out… https://t.co/m2RE6c7qrt


01:11 AM, Feb 20, 2019

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@FF_Monsters @TodfromPa now you're in MM! Tod going to join us?


01:04 AM, Feb 20, 2019

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@fantasymojo @TangoandCashFF yes, guess that's a major detail to leave out, my bad. Still felt like TE's were flyin… https://t.co/zxDVJ8R9Ug


12:57 AM, Feb 20, 2019

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@FF_Monsters @TodfromPa you can see by clicking the 5/12, or whatever number are signed up, after you sign up. Supp… https://t.co/TbPwixY19N


12:51 AM, Feb 20, 2019

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Anthony staggs

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RT @FranchiseKF: This Mike Leach quote on the NFL, KK, and the air raid has me dying https://t.co/pD6FrGMF9E


12:48 AM, Feb 20, 2019

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@theDude_Z @friscojosh Targets per gamge is my favorite so far.


12:42 AM, Feb 20, 2019

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RT @JuMosq: Most receiving yards by a rookie wide receiver taken pick #174+ in this CBA: 1) Marquez Valdes-Scantling: 581 2)… https://t.co/R9eKHeudKN


11:38 PM, Feb 19, 2019

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@FF_Fugazi @FF_Wheeler Yeah, not a gigantic difference for me.


11:28 PM, Feb 19, 2019

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RT @PatrickMahomes: I see I’m going to have to step my game up...! https://t.co/ul2payvihS


10:09 PM, Feb 19, 2019

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RT @BuckyBrooks: Who are the 5 best players in the #NFL right now? Who makes your list? Here’s mine: 1. Aaron Donald 2. Patrick Ma… https://t.co/tLGl2hUtcr


10:04 PM, Feb 19, 2019

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RT @TeamJuJu: Gave everyone who was in the Adidas store free shoes...just wanted to brighten some people’s day! Full video:… https://t.co/LhWJFMgdSs


08:42 PM, Feb 19, 2019

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Awe man, a missed career opportunity for sure... #LifesRegrets https://t.co/GJfzJvPBry


08:13 PM, Feb 19, 2019

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Big fan of @FantasyPros changing their default expert accuracy rankings contest to half-point PPR. https://t.co/goBNklRZl1


07:35 PM, Feb 19, 2019

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I have a super neat idea for a 60-team competition this season. I just hope 59 of you will be on board to make it h… https://t.co/yepxZawzVn


03:24 AM, Feb 19, 2019

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@DTC_IzzyE @ScottFish24 First timers...smh.


12:10 AM, Feb 19, 2019

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Three years ago, #AAF star Charles Johnson of the @aafAPOLLOS did a @reddit_AMA that spoke volumes to his passion &… https://t.co/qUbNG57Qu5


04:54 PM, Feb 18, 2019

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@ScottFish24 Awesome! No rush. :)


04:29 PM, Feb 18, 2019

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As a Nick Chubb owner. This sux! https://t.co/2x8eV6Tn0g


07:02 PM, Feb 11, 2019

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Ah yes. The Browns continuing a fine tradition of creating a positive culture and team dynamic. https://t.co/UfqdIHe3nr


07:00 PM, Feb 11, 2019

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11:30 AM, Jan 23, 2019

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RT @PyroStag: Incredible that this can be asked at such a young age, but if you set the line for career MVPs for Patrick Mahomes… https://t.co/aNfpbCbDgf


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RT @ReggieBush: Just when you think you’ve seen it all, @ClemsonFB you guys deserve better you are world champs and this is the hon… https://t.co/oZSQfVAgBm


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RT @jetswhispers: ESPN's Adam Schefter announced the Jets are finalizing deal with Gregg Williams to become their defensive coordinator.


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RT @MaclandJ: So I’ve got rankings updated @DynastyHHPod I’m probably wrong according to some & giving away market inefficiencies… https://t.co/cFriuwuyYh


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RT @PaulCrane7: NEW Scout's Honor podcast with Joe Flacco's most likely landing spot and the OC who may join him. Problems in PIT i… https://t.co/vsfgxPVl7V


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RT @Uncle_Odds: James White #DFS If you’re taking a shot with the Patriots backfield for me it would be White #NEvsLAC #GoPats C… https://t.co/1SqVcHyhS7


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RT @evansilva: #Bengals Pass Catchers Update: Tyler Eifert -- Out for year John Ross -- Groin, questionable at best A.J. Green --… https://t.co/LINlheNiFW


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RT @RotoViz: Dumpster Dives: Deep Waiver Pickups for Week 5 - by @DumpsterDiveFF #FantasyFootball https://t.co/i5xGgc7z40 https://t.co/F6XQEhLn7l


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PyromaniacMo's Spreading the Lines Of Fantasy for Week 5 - Vegas Implied Point Totals

Spreading the Lines of Fantasy - Week 5 (2018)

Posted by PyromaniacMo on 10/04/18

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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This weekly piece is intended to shed light on two primary factors that can weigh heavily upon your fantasy football decision making. Basically, we want to use Vegas in a helpful, predictive way. The first advantage to be gained exposes teams that are likely to be amongst the highest scoring of the week. Obviously, the more touchdowns a team puts up, the more fantasy points those players will have. For this, we will look at implied team totals. Generally, any team with an opening implied team total over 24 is one to pay attention to: The higher the number, the greater their chance for scoring.

 

So, now that we have identified the hottest teams of the week, we want to prognosticate even further and decide which positions, on those teams, will get the most opportunity to score. Does Vegas tell us a high scoring team will likely be playing with a lead? In other words, are they heavy favorites? If this is the case, then such a positive game-script indicates more rushing attempts. Thus, we want RBs on those teams. If Vegas expects a high scoring team to be on the losing end of a shoot-out, in other words a team is predicted to play from behind, this tells us to expect more of a passing attack. So, we should see a ground attack for big favorites and a passing game for the big underdogs.

 

That’s it. In essence, we are looking for high implied team totals and an indication as to which positions will likely get the most opportunity to score those points. 

 

Final note, I used to use opening lines. However, these would come out before the completion of the previous week’s games. Therefore, the line movement in the first days after opening would often change due to a team’s performance, injuries, etc. While a great deal of line movement later in the week primarily comes from betting trends. So, the lines reflected in the chart, come from Tuesday. This way, the spreads have been determined AFTER all of the previous week’s games and BEFORE the betting public influences line movement. There is no perfect answer here, but this way, I feel it captures the most accurate reflection of what Vegas has to offer without the clouding caused by the betting public and bookmakers adjusting the line in order to offset public money. In essence, the lines here ideally reflect what Vegas thinks without interference from betting trends. 

 

 

Week 5 Vegas Spreads and Implied Point Total

 

 

The Patriots are really utilizing two backs. One is a pass catcher; the other gets it done on the ground. Well, this week, as is usually the case, New England has the highest implied team total of Week #5. If you couple that with a double-digit spread, also the highest spread of the week, it screams positive game script. All of this should mean Sony Michel will continue the dominance and usage we witnessed last week. The Colts are surrendering roughly 110 rushing yards per game. As my fingers are pressing these keys, the Colts have 4 starting defensive players listed as Questionable, plus they already have 3 ruled out. This is one of six games expected to score over 50 points. This might be a good one to game stack. The Patriots and the Colts are both top three in game-neutral pace. So essentially, when they are running plays at a very fast pace compared to the league average. That means more opportunity. This is what you are looking for in fantasy. That said, the Colts will be without Mack, Hilton, and Doyle will be out Week 5. That certainly brings Ebron and Hines into play. Ebron should be very low owned as he has failed to really produce up to his price in DFS the last two weeks without Doyle. I will have him in a GPP lineup, but remember, this is the Thursday night game.

 

Cincinnati is a heavy home favorite over Miami. They are expected to score 4 TDs and win by nearly 7. So, if things go as Vegas expects, the Bengals should be able to put up points and play with a lead. While Gio has been a great fill in, Joe Mixon could possibly be back. Keep an eye on both players as the are listed as Questionable. Regardless, they should be able to do some damage on the ground against the visiting Dolphins. Miami lost two defensive ends against the Raiders in Week #3. Without Hayes and Branch bookending this D, Sony Michel was able to put up 112 rushing yards against them last week. If Mixon is back, it could be a big day as opportunity should abound. 

 

Carolina should be in a positive game script against a woeful Giants D. However, Carolina is a different kind of offense. Cam could be in for a big day as the Giants have given up the most rushing yards to opposing QBs so far this year. Not only that, the Giants are dead last in defensive line adjusted sack rate according to Football Outsiders. If you look at 4for4’s schedule adjusted fantasy points against chart, the Giants are also dead last against WRs in both standard and PPR. Cam is a potential cash play in DFS.

 

If you are looking to game stack in Week #5, you have options. Green Bay at Detroit is just one of six games expected to put up over a 50 points in total. We have witnessed what the trio of Lions WRs are capable of doing. While I believe Aaron Rodgers is one bad hit away from IR, he has thus far put up numbers. While he is not as elusive, he can certainly still rely on his arm.  Keep an eye on the Packers WRs.  All three starting WRs are listed as Questionable as of Wed. I expect Adams to go, as his injury just popped up, but the others are a concern. Scantling would likely be the next man up according to beat reports. 

 

Atlanta is at Pittsburgh and this game is expected to score the most points in Week #5. Both of these teams are in the top 5 for fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs and top 5 to opposing PPR WRs. Not only that, the Steelers are allowing the most PPR points to opposing TEs and the Falcons are giving up the 3rdmost to opposing PPR backs. So, I could see a Matt Ryan/Hooper/Ridley GPP stack in DFS. You are playing both RBs and certainly the WRs. This game could be dripping with goo. Keep an eye peeled as D. Freeman could be back or this week which will certainly cap Coleman’s usage.

 

Vegas has the Chargers pegged to score just over 29 points and win by just over 5 against the visiting Raiders. Certainly M. Gordon and K. Allen are easy starts. Heck, Ekeler has put up doble-digit PPR days in each of the first 4 games this year. However, I like Mike Williams in this one. Whether you grab him off waivers or use him in GPP, he has a great matchup against Jimmie Ward; only 4 other CBs are giving up more fantasy points per route run. Not only that, Mike Williams leads the team in air yards. Mike Williams would be a guy I would be willing to take a chance on if I needed help in the WR area in Week 5.

 

The Rams are home and expected to score nearly 29 points. They are favored by a full TD. Last week, we saw the WRs go off, this week, the game should easily be in hand. The Rams could be cruising and rely heavily on Gurley on the ground.

 

Finally, the Saints are home to a visiting Washington team. Ingram is expected back, however, he will not chew into Kamara’s touches as much as he did last year, especially his first game back. The Redskins are a funnel team when looking at the schedule adjusted for fantasy points allowed. While they are top 10 toughest for QBs and WRs, they are a bottom 10 for opposing RBs in both PPR and Standard. I am not hesitating to play Kamara, even with the return of Ingram.

 


 

 

PyromaniacMo with a Founder's

 

By: PyromaniacMo

 

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