Week 7
October 20, 2018
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Wheeler

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RT @DynastyWarZone: 🚨🚨New Podcast Alert 🚨🚨 ⚠️ ⚠️ ⚠️Warning ⚠️ ⚠️ ⚠️ ⁦@DFFMemphis⁩ was both sleep deprived and under the influence in… https://t.co/Z1P0GuX3xB


12:34 PM, Oct 20, 2018

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Wheeler

@FF_Wheeler


RT @ClutchFantasy: 2009 under Todd Haley Larry Johnson totaled 453yds, 65yds per game over 7 games. Jamaal Charles took over and total… https://t.co/dmZ98welaG


12:30 PM, Oct 20, 2018

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Wheeler

@FF_Wheeler


RT @FFStatistics_: Trying to build your Week 7 #DFS lineup? @SMich_5 has some statistics you should take a look at before building yo… https://t.co/ciEBa7lcdW


12:28 PM, Oct 20, 2018

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Wheeler

@FF_Wheeler


RT @DP_NFL: 🚨My Top 5 RBs of Week 6🚨 Agree or Disagree? Let me know your list! #NFL #Top5 #DnD #LARams #GiantsPride #Chargers… https://t.co/HPO0Azit7w


11:19 AM, Oct 20, 2018

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Wheeler

@FF_Wheeler


RT @GeoffLambert77: Did u miss @GoingFor_2's 2018 Week 7 Sit/Start (#FantasyFootball) by @MikeKelleyDLP https://t.co/OaO5OGsirI https://t.co/Mu4UUcHljS


11:19 AM, Oct 20, 2018

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Pyromaniac.com

@pyroman1ac


My baby... #Daisy https://t.co/oi3P3AvUhH


04:38 AM, Oct 20, 2018

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Pyromaniac.com

@pyroman1ac


Danny Glover saying "Riggs" https://t.co/CZ40ULyu9g


03:58 AM, Oct 20, 2018

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Pyromaniac.com

@pyroman1ac


Is turning off your notifications the ultimate productivity hack? https://t.co/ygbM3LZKYf


03:47 AM, Oct 20, 2018

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Pyromaniac.com

@pyroman1ac


Never forget Keith Moon's genius. #TheWho https://t.co/Y43QKyOVXP


03:31 AM, Oct 20, 2018

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Pyromaniac.com

@pyroman1ac


Paul and Dave-Te... such a solid tandem. Make sure to listen to all of their podcasts! Listen to "NFL Trade Deadli… https://t.co/v0OQj2j6Fj


01:40 AM, Oct 20, 2018

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Mo

@pyromaniacmo


@KallmeAlex I do. The implied pt total much higher. I think TB can shoot out this week. Dont trust Mariotta what so ever


12:39 AM, Oct 20, 2018

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Anthony staggs

@PyroStag


RT @MichaelKistNFL: Have a couple corrections to make on some INC passes but the main thing I was trying to do was chart Cam Newton's l… https://t.co/ESaTpBmx9n


10:06 PM, Oct 19, 2018

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Anthony staggs

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@PeoplezPen No issues with Landry still in prime and receivers aren’t sure things even in high draft spots. Organiz… https://t.co/BvG43pcfg0


10:05 PM, Oct 19, 2018

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Anthony staggs

@PyroStag


RT @Reflog_18: How the John Dorsey and Hue Jackson conversation about Carlos Hyde went down... https://t.co/qt4OPjFL34


09:57 PM, Oct 19, 2018

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Anthony staggs

@PyroStag


@pyroman1ac Sending the fiancé immediately.


09:53 PM, Oct 19, 2018

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Anthony staggs

@PyroStag


@DtwMimms That could pay off if you have RB depth, depends what the roster looks like.


09:43 PM, Oct 19, 2018

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Mo

@pyromaniacmo


Chris Godwin is just $4.6K on #DraftKings He has eclipsed 13 DK points in 4 of 5 games this season. Last week, w/Wi… https://t.co/CraZkO6lVT


11:25 PM, Oct 18, 2018

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Mo

@pyromaniacmo


RT @pyroman1ac: A weekly weapon of mass destruction chart and write up by @pyromaniacmo https://t.co/2wTVgKfvqz


11:18 PM, Oct 18, 2018

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Waz

@WazNFL


@andybehrens When did Brad do that?


02:01 AM, Oct 18, 2018

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Waz

@WazNFL


@andybehrens I started Brock Osweiler in #SFB8 last week. I sooooo know what I'm doing.


01:57 AM, Oct 18, 2018

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Waz

@WazNFL


@andybehrens Nothing beats a good Wednesday night roid sesh.


01:54 AM, Oct 18, 2018

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Mo

@pyromaniacmo


RT @bob_lung: In #FantasyFootball, TE's are usually the most inconsistent group. However, so far, this year, there are EIGHT TE's… https://t.co/B6PjMRIasa


01:35 AM, Oct 18, 2018

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Mo

@pyromaniacmo


RT @fantasysixpack: NBA DFS Main Slate Breakdown via @WeTlkFntsySprts Keith looks at the 11 game slate using the Wisdom of the Crowd p… https://t.co/ECYt1vjSXe


01:35 AM, Oct 18, 2018

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Pk ripper 🤜💥🤛

@amaze652


RT @krich1532: If you want some laughs, run through this thread real quick. This tweet wasn’t even about myself, this was my react… https://t.co/iyhCaFlBIe


08:51 AM, Oct 16, 2018

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@amaze652


RT @LeviAndrewFF: Rushing Attempt Leaders for Week 6 Todd Gurley-28 Ezekiel Elliott-25 Sony Michel-24 Latavius Murray-24 James Conne… https://t.co/VLtIJpIwNb


08:49 AM, Oct 16, 2018

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Pk ripper 🤜💥🤛

@amaze652


RT @LeviAndrewFF: Target Leaders for Week 6 Davante Adams-16 Adam Thielen-15 Julio Jones-14 Tyreek Hill-12 Alshon Jeffery-12 Sammy… https://t.co/pcVtFZOwu7


08:49 AM, Oct 16, 2018

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@amaze652


RT @edwardraus: Monday Night Rants: 10/15/2018 - Week 6, MNF, MLB Playoffs and There is Hope for Their w/ @zaragozaanthony https://t.co/Xw8iSQUVhP


08:49 AM, Oct 16, 2018

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RT @DomiNateFF: Here it is! I love me some Davante Adams this #FantasyFootball season! HUGE potential & a real chance as the #1 WR… https://t.co/XIXLpKL7wz


08:49 AM, Oct 16, 2018

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Waz

@WazNFL


That Tyrell Williams TD catch was #good.


06:25 PM, Oct 14, 2018

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Waz

@WazNFL


Even Krusty the Clown tilts on Sundays. https://t.co/vW3MxrfFe8


01:14 PM, Oct 13, 2018

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Brad holmes

@bradholmes17


RT @pyromaniacmo: Of course. Another @pyroman1ac man, @FF_Wheeler The most accurate #FantasyFootball ranker so far this season! Well… https://t.co/49y6HFnfoV


02:13 PM, Oct 06, 2018

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Brad holmes

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@pyroman1ac https://t.co/ZiHjlwIXio


03:36 PM, Oct 05, 2018

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Brad holmes

@bradholmes17


RT @evansilva: #Bengals Pass Catchers Update: Tyler Eifert -- Out for year John Ross -- Groin, questionable at best A.J. Green --… https://t.co/LINlheNiFW


04:19 PM, Oct 04, 2018

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Brad holmes

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@pyroman1ac https://t.co/XRG0konwbt


02:42 PM, Oct 03, 2018

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Brad holmes

@bradholmes17


RT @RotoViz: Dumpster Dives: Deep Waiver Pickups for Week 5 - by @DumpsterDiveFF #FantasyFootball https://t.co/i5xGgc7z40 https://t.co/F6XQEhLn7l


12:42 AM, Oct 03, 2018

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PyromaniacMo's Spreading the Lines Of Fantasy for Week 5 - Vegas Implied Point Totals

Spreading the Lines of Fantasy - Week 5 (2018)

Posted by PyromaniacMo on 10/04/18

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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This weekly piece is intended to shed light on two primary factors that can weigh heavily upon your fantasy football decision making. Basically, we want to use Vegas in a helpful, predictive way. The first advantage to be gained exposes teams that are likely to be amongst the highest scoring of the week. Obviously, the more touchdowns a team puts up, the more fantasy points those players will have. For this, we will look at implied team totals. Generally, any team with an opening implied team total over 24 is one to pay attention to: The higher the number, the greater their chance for scoring.

 

So, now that we have identified the hottest teams of the week, we want to prognosticate even further and decide which positions, on those teams, will get the most opportunity to score. Does Vegas tell us a high scoring team will likely be playing with a lead? In other words, are they heavy favorites? If this is the case, then such a positive game-script indicates more rushing attempts. Thus, we want RBs on those teams. If Vegas expects a high scoring team to be on the losing end of a shoot-out, in other words a team is predicted to play from behind, this tells us to expect more of a passing attack. So, we should see a ground attack for big favorites and a passing game for the big underdogs.

 

That’s it. In essence, we are looking for high implied team totals and an indication as to which positions will likely get the most opportunity to score those points. 

 

Final note, I used to use opening lines. However, these would come out before the completion of the previous week’s games. Therefore, the line movement in the first days after opening would often change due to a team’s performance, injuries, etc. While a great deal of line movement later in the week primarily comes from betting trends. So, the lines reflected in the chart, come from Tuesday. This way, the spreads have been determined AFTER all of the previous week’s games and BEFORE the betting public influences line movement. There is no perfect answer here, but this way, I feel it captures the most accurate reflection of what Vegas has to offer without the clouding caused by the betting public and bookmakers adjusting the line in order to offset public money. In essence, the lines here ideally reflect what Vegas thinks without interference from betting trends. 

 

 

Week 5 Vegas Spreads and Implied Point Total

 

 

The Patriots are really utilizing two backs. One is a pass catcher; the other gets it done on the ground. Well, this week, as is usually the case, New England has the highest implied team total of Week #5. If you couple that with a double-digit spread, also the highest spread of the week, it screams positive game script. All of this should mean Sony Michel will continue the dominance and usage we witnessed last week. The Colts are surrendering roughly 110 rushing yards per game. As my fingers are pressing these keys, the Colts have 4 starting defensive players listed as Questionable, plus they already have 3 ruled out. This is one of six games expected to score over 50 points. This might be a good one to game stack. The Patriots and the Colts are both top three in game-neutral pace. So essentially, when they are running plays at a very fast pace compared to the league average. That means more opportunity. This is what you are looking for in fantasy. That said, the Colts will be without Mack, Hilton, and Doyle will be out Week 5. That certainly brings Ebron and Hines into play. Ebron should be very low owned as he has failed to really produce up to his price in DFS the last two weeks without Doyle. I will have him in a GPP lineup, but remember, this is the Thursday night game.

 

Cincinnati is a heavy home favorite over Miami. They are expected to score 4 TDs and win by nearly 7. So, if things go as Vegas expects, the Bengals should be able to put up points and play with a lead. While Gio has been a great fill in, Joe Mixon could possibly be back. Keep an eye on both players as the are listed as Questionable. Regardless, they should be able to do some damage on the ground against the visiting Dolphins. Miami lost two defensive ends against the Raiders in Week #3. Without Hayes and Branch bookending this D, Sony Michel was able to put up 112 rushing yards against them last week. If Mixon is back, it could be a big day as opportunity should abound. 

 

Carolina should be in a positive game script against a woeful Giants D. However, Carolina is a different kind of offense. Cam could be in for a big day as the Giants have given up the most rushing yards to opposing QBs so far this year. Not only that, the Giants are dead last in defensive line adjusted sack rate according to Football Outsiders. If you look at 4for4’s schedule adjusted fantasy points against chart, the Giants are also dead last against WRs in both standard and PPR. Cam is a potential cash play in DFS.

 

If you are looking to game stack in Week #5, you have options. Green Bay at Detroit is just one of six games expected to put up over a 50 points in total. We have witnessed what the trio of Lions WRs are capable of doing. While I believe Aaron Rodgers is one bad hit away from IR, he has thus far put up numbers. While he is not as elusive, he can certainly still rely on his arm.  Keep an eye on the Packers WRs.  All three starting WRs are listed as Questionable as of Wed. I expect Adams to go, as his injury just popped up, but the others are a concern. Scantling would likely be the next man up according to beat reports. 

 

Atlanta is at Pittsburgh and this game is expected to score the most points in Week #5. Both of these teams are in the top 5 for fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs and top 5 to opposing PPR WRs. Not only that, the Steelers are allowing the most PPR points to opposing TEs and the Falcons are giving up the 3rdmost to opposing PPR backs. So, I could see a Matt Ryan/Hooper/Ridley GPP stack in DFS. You are playing both RBs and certainly the WRs. This game could be dripping with goo. Keep an eye peeled as D. Freeman could be back or this week which will certainly cap Coleman’s usage.

 

Vegas has the Chargers pegged to score just over 29 points and win by just over 5 against the visiting Raiders. Certainly M. Gordon and K. Allen are easy starts. Heck, Ekeler has put up doble-digit PPR days in each of the first 4 games this year. However, I like Mike Williams in this one. Whether you grab him off waivers or use him in GPP, he has a great matchup against Jimmie Ward; only 4 other CBs are giving up more fantasy points per route run. Not only that, Mike Williams leads the team in air yards. Mike Williams would be a guy I would be willing to take a chance on if I needed help in the WR area in Week 5.

 

The Rams are home and expected to score nearly 29 points. They are favored by a full TD. Last week, we saw the WRs go off, this week, the game should easily be in hand. The Rams could be cruising and rely heavily on Gurley on the ground.

 

Finally, the Saints are home to a visiting Washington team. Ingram is expected back, however, he will not chew into Kamara’s touches as much as he did last year, especially his first game back. The Redskins are a funnel team when looking at the schedule adjusted for fantasy points allowed. While they are top 10 toughest for QBs and WRs, they are a bottom 10 for opposing RBs in both PPR and Standard. I am not hesitating to play Kamara, even with the return of Ingram.

 


 

 

PyromaniacMo with a Founder's

 

By: PyromaniacMo

 

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