Week 15
December 14, 2018
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Anthony staggs

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@MFHHLIVE Bills. Aaron Jones. Play Brees. Second back is Carson for me.


07:14 PM, Dec 14, 2018

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Anthony staggs

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RT @kfishbain: Bears practice report DNP: Eddie Jackson (shin) Limited: Bilal Nichols (knee) Full: Allen Robinson (hip) All three… https://t.co/VBTbG1dGQy


07:06 PM, Dec 14, 2018

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Anthony staggs

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@pavankambhatla Yeah tier 2 and three can pretty much be combined in my mind.


07:05 PM, Dec 14, 2018

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Anthony staggs

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@BleedGoldandRed Yeah, Keenan was one of the tougher ones, probably will end up with Thielen over Keenan and Allen in that next tier.


06:52 PM, Dec 14, 2018

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Anthony staggs

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@BleedGoldandRed Yeah, right up there. I really let me projections for receptions decide who to bump in PPR either way.


06:49 PM, Dec 14, 2018

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Waz

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👀 https://t.co/zxMPdVnR4Q


04:57 PM, Dec 14, 2018

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Wheeler

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RT @friscojosh: I wrote about Washington and Kaepernick. https://t.co/QoSgOInq2g


04:40 PM, Dec 14, 2018

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Wheeler

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RT @ScottFish24: Fantasy football league fills 32 carts for Toys for Tots https://t.co/eq40i8dTMj via @KARE11 #fantasycares


04:21 PM, Dec 14, 2018

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RT @Pat_Thorman: Gotta love when football twitter sets aside their differences and comes together for a good cause, like piling on a loud-mouthed clown.


04:19 PM, Dec 14, 2018

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RT @pyromaniacmo: See how Vegas can help your Fantasy Football decisions for NFL Week 15 - check out the chart and the write-up on… https://t.co/3LFihqRKbk


02:14 PM, Dec 14, 2018

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RT @GOATdistrict: 🎧NEW Episode🎧 🏆Playoff Madness: The Final Four 🍀with @amazehayes_ 🧠 from @FFStatistics_ , @DFFMemphis &… https://t.co/d4fr02AoAt


11:55 AM, Dec 14, 2018

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Pyromaniac.com

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RT @wolfejosh: Physics is visually SATISFYING. Ice––on a trampoline. https://t.co/8XvVRaDyiH


06:35 AM, Dec 14, 2018

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RT @MrGeorgeWallace: Listen, before your sorry ass clicks 'reply all' ask yourself if every damn person you're replyin' to needs to know… https://t.co/RXGCHp0yiO


06:31 AM, Dec 14, 2018

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05:37 AM, Dec 14, 2018

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He Served the Longest Sentence of Any Innocent U.S. Inmate https://t.co/E2kfVw1XEI


05:13 AM, Dec 14, 2018

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Waz

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@b_d_cobb The icon is set up for the player by default. Some still show as their old team (ie. Fitzmagic) but the s… https://t.co/v7hLCFtvpb


10:53 PM, Dec 13, 2018

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Mo

@pyromaniacmo


@LateRoundQB Even failed to mention Hill’s nagging injury.


10:39 PM, Dec 13, 2018

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Pyromaniac.com

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RT @CivilEats: 15% of @SierraNevada's employees were displaced by the campfire. The brewery sprung into action, and others followe… https://t.co/vBynKSEt68


10:31 PM, Dec 13, 2018

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Mo

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See how Vegas can help your Fantasy Football decisions for NFL Week 15 - check out the chart and the write-up on… https://t.co/3LFihqRKbk


10:17 PM, Dec 13, 2018

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Waz

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@troywinger Jackson for sure, and probably Williams for the other.


09:08 PM, Dec 13, 2018

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Waz

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@b_d_cobb Hey man, I'm not sure where you were looking at but my Week 15 ranks weren't published until about an hou… https://t.co/99di82lKxm


09:07 PM, Dec 13, 2018

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@RyanHodge @stephenasmith Prepare for a pivot to Virgil Green.


09:00 PM, Dec 13, 2018

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Mo

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RT @pyroman1ac: Spreading the Lines of Fantasy for Week 15 by @pyromaniacmo https://t.co/a91zBcoQVM https://t.co/bR9kf11Vww


06:05 PM, Dec 13, 2018

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Mo

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JuJu Smith to face Daryl Worley from Oakland. No other starting CB in Week 14 is averaging more fantasy points allo… https://t.co/TcxQYjO8jr


09:22 PM, Dec 08, 2018

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RT @fantasysixpack: The Fantasy Edge Podacst w/ @RRSSavill @JChan_811 @KevinMHuo Fantasy Football Week 14 🏈 DST Stream-0-Matic… https://t.co/wvn87xqarg


08:43 PM, Dec 08, 2018

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Pk ripper 🤜💥🤛

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09:49 PM, Nov 22, 2018

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@FinsBroadcaster The Outsiders C. Thomas Howell.Ralph Macchio. Patrick Swayze.RobLowe.Emilio Estevez.Tom Cruise.Di… https://t.co/NFDHuG2xRE


01:38 PM, Nov 18, 2018

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RT @DomiNateFF: Who did you bench on your #FantasyFootball teams in #Week10 that you regret? I’ll start…I played Fitzpatrick over… https://t.co/GZoHOiB8U7


10:54 AM, Nov 12, 2018

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RT @AdvSportsLogic: Before setting those line ups, check out out updated ranks. #FantasyFootball: Week 10 Updated Rankings QB:… https://t.co/oArauvIKdX


10:24 PM, Nov 11, 2018

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RT @FFD260: Ryan Fitzpatrick attempting to throw the lead block down. #Bucs #Redskins #NFL https://t.co/0Te1hbJEWJ


10:16 PM, Nov 11, 2018

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Brad holmes

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RT @pyromaniacmo: Of course. Another @pyroman1ac man, @FF_Wheeler The most accurate #FantasyFootball ranker so far this season! Well… https://t.co/49y6HFnfoV


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03:36 PM, Oct 05, 2018

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RT @evansilva: #Bengals Pass Catchers Update: Tyler Eifert -- Out for year John Ross -- Groin, questionable at best A.J. Green --… https://t.co/LINlheNiFW


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02:42 PM, Oct 03, 2018

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RT @RotoViz: Dumpster Dives: Deep Waiver Pickups for Week 5 - by @DumpsterDiveFF #FantasyFootball https://t.co/i5xGgc7z40 https://t.co/F6XQEhLn7l


12:42 AM, Oct 03, 2018

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PyromaniacMo's Spreading the Lines Of Fantasy for Week 5 - Vegas Implied Point Totals

Spreading the Lines of Fantasy - Week 5 (2018)

Posted by PyromaniacMo on 10/04/18

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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This weekly piece is intended to shed light on two primary factors that can weigh heavily upon your fantasy football decision making. Basically, we want to use Vegas in a helpful, predictive way. The first advantage to be gained exposes teams that are likely to be amongst the highest scoring of the week. Obviously, the more touchdowns a team puts up, the more fantasy points those players will have. For this, we will look at implied team totals. Generally, any team with an opening implied team total over 24 is one to pay attention to: The higher the number, the greater their chance for scoring.

 

So, now that we have identified the hottest teams of the week, we want to prognosticate even further and decide which positions, on those teams, will get the most opportunity to score. Does Vegas tell us a high scoring team will likely be playing with a lead? In other words, are they heavy favorites? If this is the case, then such a positive game-script indicates more rushing attempts. Thus, we want RBs on those teams. If Vegas expects a high scoring team to be on the losing end of a shoot-out, in other words a team is predicted to play from behind, this tells us to expect more of a passing attack. So, we should see a ground attack for big favorites and a passing game for the big underdogs.

 

That’s it. In essence, we are looking for high implied team totals and an indication as to which positions will likely get the most opportunity to score those points. 

 

Final note, I used to use opening lines. However, these would come out before the completion of the previous week’s games. Therefore, the line movement in the first days after opening would often change due to a team’s performance, injuries, etc. While a great deal of line movement later in the week primarily comes from betting trends. So, the lines reflected in the chart, come from Tuesday. This way, the spreads have been determined AFTER all of the previous week’s games and BEFORE the betting public influences line movement. There is no perfect answer here, but this way, I feel it captures the most accurate reflection of what Vegas has to offer without the clouding caused by the betting public and bookmakers adjusting the line in order to offset public money. In essence, the lines here ideally reflect what Vegas thinks without interference from betting trends. 

 

 

Week 5 Vegas Spreads and Implied Point Total

 

 

The Patriots are really utilizing two backs. One is a pass catcher; the other gets it done on the ground. Well, this week, as is usually the case, New England has the highest implied team total of Week #5. If you couple that with a double-digit spread, also the highest spread of the week, it screams positive game script. All of this should mean Sony Michel will continue the dominance and usage we witnessed last week. The Colts are surrendering roughly 110 rushing yards per game. As my fingers are pressing these keys, the Colts have 4 starting defensive players listed as Questionable, plus they already have 3 ruled out. This is one of six games expected to score over 50 points. This might be a good one to game stack. The Patriots and the Colts are both top three in game-neutral pace. So essentially, when they are running plays at a very fast pace compared to the league average. That means more opportunity. This is what you are looking for in fantasy. That said, the Colts will be without Mack, Hilton, and Doyle will be out Week 5. That certainly brings Ebron and Hines into play. Ebron should be very low owned as he has failed to really produce up to his price in DFS the last two weeks without Doyle. I will have him in a GPP lineup, but remember, this is the Thursday night game.

 

Cincinnati is a heavy home favorite over Miami. They are expected to score 4 TDs and win by nearly 7. So, if things go as Vegas expects, the Bengals should be able to put up points and play with a lead. While Gio has been a great fill in, Joe Mixon could possibly be back. Keep an eye on both players as the are listed as Questionable. Regardless, they should be able to do some damage on the ground against the visiting Dolphins. Miami lost two defensive ends against the Raiders in Week #3. Without Hayes and Branch bookending this D, Sony Michel was able to put up 112 rushing yards against them last week. If Mixon is back, it could be a big day as opportunity should abound. 

 

Carolina should be in a positive game script against a woeful Giants D. However, Carolina is a different kind of offense. Cam could be in for a big day as the Giants have given up the most rushing yards to opposing QBs so far this year. Not only that, the Giants are dead last in defensive line adjusted sack rate according to Football Outsiders. If you look at 4for4’s schedule adjusted fantasy points against chart, the Giants are also dead last against WRs in both standard and PPR. Cam is a potential cash play in DFS.

 

If you are looking to game stack in Week #5, you have options. Green Bay at Detroit is just one of six games expected to put up over a 50 points in total. We have witnessed what the trio of Lions WRs are capable of doing. While I believe Aaron Rodgers is one bad hit away from IR, he has thus far put up numbers. While he is not as elusive, he can certainly still rely on his arm.  Keep an eye on the Packers WRs.  All three starting WRs are listed as Questionable as of Wed. I expect Adams to go, as his injury just popped up, but the others are a concern. Scantling would likely be the next man up according to beat reports. 

 

Atlanta is at Pittsburgh and this game is expected to score the most points in Week #5. Both of these teams are in the top 5 for fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs and top 5 to opposing PPR WRs. Not only that, the Steelers are allowing the most PPR points to opposing TEs and the Falcons are giving up the 3rdmost to opposing PPR backs. So, I could see a Matt Ryan/Hooper/Ridley GPP stack in DFS. You are playing both RBs and certainly the WRs. This game could be dripping with goo. Keep an eye peeled as D. Freeman could be back or this week which will certainly cap Coleman’s usage.

 

Vegas has the Chargers pegged to score just over 29 points and win by just over 5 against the visiting Raiders. Certainly M. Gordon and K. Allen are easy starts. Heck, Ekeler has put up doble-digit PPR days in each of the first 4 games this year. However, I like Mike Williams in this one. Whether you grab him off waivers or use him in GPP, he has a great matchup against Jimmie Ward; only 4 other CBs are giving up more fantasy points per route run. Not only that, Mike Williams leads the team in air yards. Mike Williams would be a guy I would be willing to take a chance on if I needed help in the WR area in Week 5.

 

The Rams are home and expected to score nearly 29 points. They are favored by a full TD. Last week, we saw the WRs go off, this week, the game should easily be in hand. The Rams could be cruising and rely heavily on Gurley on the ground.

 

Finally, the Saints are home to a visiting Washington team. Ingram is expected back, however, he will not chew into Kamara’s touches as much as he did last year, especially his first game back. The Redskins are a funnel team when looking at the schedule adjusted for fantasy points allowed. While they are top 10 toughest for QBs and WRs, they are a bottom 10 for opposing RBs in both PPR and Standard. I am not hesitating to play Kamara, even with the return of Ingram.

 


 

 

PyromaniacMo with a Founder's

 

By: PyromaniacMo

 

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