Week 20
January 16, 2019
Articles
Newsfeeds
SHARE

Pyro® Twitterfeed

Qmwftfwy_normal

Anthony staggs

@PyroStag


RT @pfref: Tom Brady's playoff stats, age-35 or older: 16 games 5,284 yards 34 TDs 11 INT 95.3 passer rating 12-4 record https://t.co/LAmahJY3Iu


01:32 PM, Jan 16, 2019

0

See Anthony Staggs other Tweets

Ls8qcqzp_normal

Wheeler

@FF_Wheeler


RT @DynastyGuruFF: So for QB I have been working on a strict Pass/Fail model. Excluding the 2018 and 2019 QB class here is the list of… https://t.co/N3N3FeRAPh


12:01 PM, Jan 16, 2019

0

See Wheeler other Tweets

Qmwftfwy_normal

Anthony staggs

@PyroStag


@DynastyGuruFF Hit the 2012 season and unless the scoring system is very different he will have one.


04:32 AM, Jan 16, 2019

2

See Anthony Staggs other Tweets

Qmwftfwy_normal

Anthony staggs

@PyroStag


@DynastyGuruFF Are you looking at their rookie season to project future ones or college pedigrees, how doesn’t RG3… https://t.co/D820jm0vEr


04:28 AM, Jan 16, 2019

1

See Anthony Staggs other Tweets

Qmwftfwy_normal

Anthony staggs

@PyroStag


RT @DynastyGuruFF: College Stats - Name these QB's QB A: 67% CMP, 9430 yds, 9.5 AY/A, 82 TD's, 7.71% TD Rate, 162.8 QB Rate QB B: 65… https://t.co/PN2xQyPyBB


04:15 AM, Jan 16, 2019

0

See Anthony Staggs other Tweets

Sxfrtkuc_normal

Pyromaniac.com

@pyroman1ac


RT @BurgerKing: due to a large order placed yesterday, we're all out of hamberders. just serving hamburgers today.


02:35 AM, Jan 16, 2019

0

See Pyromaniac.com other Tweets

Sxfrtkuc_normal

Pyromaniac.com

@pyroman1ac


RT @KamalaHarris: Folks across the country are struggling to pay their mortgages, put food on the table, and pay off their medical bi… https://t.co/tlYYAUXBxF


02:31 AM, Jan 16, 2019

0

See Pyromaniac.com other Tweets

Ukwcolve_normal

Waz

@WazNFL


@nfldraftscout @DHH_Mandrew Consider it done.


02:17 AM, Jan 16, 2019

1

See Waz other Tweets

Ukwcolve_normal

Waz

@WazNFL


@The_ATJ Yeah, made it work with a week to spare. See you soon!


02:08 AM, Jan 16, 2019

1

See Waz other Tweets

Sxfrtkuc_normal

Pyromaniac.com

@pyroman1ac


RT @TampaBayTre: Put this tweet in the Hall of Fame immediately https://t.co/cie9Ay230O


01:36 AM, Jan 16, 2019

0

See Pyromaniac.com other Tweets

Dw_ol6rxqaemxcn

Ukwcolve_normal

Waz

@WazNFL


@Cover_1_ https://t.co/BovJSfYjB8


01:01 AM, Jan 16, 2019

2

See Waz other Tweets

Sxfrtkuc_normal

Pyromaniac.com

@pyroman1ac


RT @exavierpope: Yes I am breaking down MLK's Letter from A Birmingham Jail and why it answers every question or critique on Colin Kaepernick. Here goes...


12:07 AM, Jan 16, 2019

0

See Pyromaniac.com other Tweets

R_npje3r_normal

Pk ripper 🤜💥🤛

@amaze652


RT @PyroStag: Incredible that this can be asked at such a young age, but if you set the line for career MVPs for Patrick Mahomes… https://t.co/aNfpbCbDgf


11:59 PM, Jan 15, 2019

0

See PK Ripper 🤜💥🤛 other Tweets

Dw_xcb-xqaaplxy

Ukwcolve_normal

Waz

@WazNFL


@Cover_1_ https://t.co/ajMU1jFARA


11:48 PM, Jan 15, 2019

2

See Waz other Tweets

Ukwcolve_normal

Waz

@WazNFL


@MichaelKistNFL countless bad takes too. #brand


11:45 PM, Jan 15, 2019

2

See Waz other Tweets

Qmwftfwy_normal

Anthony staggs

@PyroStag


@BleedGoldandRed Sure but let’s also remember winning MVPs is hard, even when you are really really good. Ask Drew Brees.


11:43 PM, Jan 15, 2019

0

See Anthony Staggs other Tweets

R_npje3r_normal

Pk ripper 🤜💥🤛

@amaze652


RT @ReggieBush: Just when you think you’ve seen it all, @ClemsonFB you guys deserve better you are world champs and this is the hon… https://t.co/oZSQfVAgBm


09:55 PM, Jan 15, 2019

0

See PK Ripper 🤜💥🤛 other Tweets

Dw9-vtixgaiievy

Sxfrtkuc_normal

Pyromaniac.com

@pyroman1ac


RT @PyroStag: In 2018, here is how each #NFL teams passing offense performed in between the 20s. #PartyFFavors https://t.co/NyrRnJjVMZ


09:52 PM, Jan 15, 2019

0

See Pyromaniac.com other Tweets

R_npje3r_normal

Pk ripper 🤜💥🤛

@amaze652


RT @jetswhispers: ESPN's Adam Schefter announced the Jets are finalizing deal with Gregg Williams to become their defensive coordinator.


09:49 PM, Jan 15, 2019

0

See PK Ripper 🤜💥🤛 other Tweets

R_npje3r_normal

Pk ripper 🤜💥🤛

@amaze652


RT @pixelnfl: Adam Gase’s introductory presser 👀 #nflart #nyjets #jets #AdamGase #footballart #jetsnation #nflart #pixelart… https://t.co/foFARjww4g


09:46 PM, Jan 15, 2019

0

See PK Ripper 🤜💥🤛 other Tweets

R_npje3r_normal

Pk ripper 🤜💥🤛

@amaze652


RT @GeoffLambert77: Sorry to everyone that gets the newsletter and gets the spreadsheet a day late, flaw with the newsletter that I'm g… https://t.co/un7kqCoSPm


09:46 PM, Jan 15, 2019

0

See PK Ripper 🤜💥🤛 other Tweets

Ls8qcqzp_normal

Wheeler

@FF_Wheeler


RT @FFanalystsPod: ICYMI: Part 1 of our full breakdown for the QBs in the 2019 #NFLDraft Class & their #FantasyFootball value Make su… https://t.co/8XVZ5ygVdm


08:48 PM, Jan 15, 2019

0

See Wheeler other Tweets

Ls8qcqzp_normal

Wheeler

@FF_Wheeler


RT @ScottFish24: It's Baaaack! @BullRushPodcast Episode 95: The Return (with less football, somehow) @RyanMc23, @DynastyFrank, & S… https://t.co/zxdMtmB7qL


08:46 PM, Jan 15, 2019

0

See Wheeler other Tweets

Dw9-vtixgaiievy

Ls8qcqzp_normal

Wheeler

@FF_Wheeler


RT @PyroStag: In 2018, here is how each #NFL teams passing offense performed in between the 20s. #PartyFFavors https://t.co/NyrRnJjVMZ


07:46 PM, Jan 15, 2019

0

See Wheeler other Tweets

Ls8qcqzp_normal

Wheeler

@FF_Wheeler


RT @DBro_FFB: Tyreek Hill vs NE(2 gms) 28.1% Tg share (led tm tgs in both) 70% ctch rate Avg: 10 tg 7 rec 137.5 yds 2 Tds NE run… https://t.co/jjIQFFsJwF


07:46 PM, Jan 15, 2019

0

See Wheeler other Tweets

Lw5fkocm_normal

Mo

@pyromaniacmo


RT @MaclandJ: So I’ve got rankings updated @DynastyHHPod I’m probably wrong according to some & giving away market inefficiencies… https://t.co/cFriuwuyYh


10:55 PM, Jan 13, 2019

0

See Mo other Tweets

Lw5fkocm_normal

Mo

@pyromaniacmo


RT @PaulCrane7: NEW Scout's Honor podcast with Joe Flacco's most likely landing spot and the OC who may join him. Problems in PIT i… https://t.co/vsfgxPVl7V


10:46 PM, Jan 13, 2019

0

See Mo other Tweets

Lw5fkocm_normal

Mo

@pyromaniacmo


RT @Uncle_Odds: James White #DFS If you’re taking a shot with the Patriots backfield for me it would be White #NEvsLAC #GoPats C… https://t.co/1SqVcHyhS7


06:07 PM, Jan 13, 2019

0

See Mo other Tweets

Lw5fkocm_normal

Mo

@pyromaniacmo


RT @PaulCrane7: NEW Scout's Honor podcast with more coaching news including landing spots for Mike McCarthy and Bruce Arians, coord… https://t.co/rjY7T56Nsg


06:03 PM, Jan 13, 2019

0

See Mo other Tweets

Lw5fkocm_normal

Mo

@pyromaniacmo


Currently, in the @Ravens vs. @Chargers game, the 2 highest scoring fantasy players for each side= defenses. Accor… https://t.co/kxXxYLeOTn


08:47 PM, Jan 06, 2019

2

See Mo other Tweets

Splxltwd_normal

Brad holmes

@bradholmes17


RT @pyromaniacmo: Of course. Another @pyroman1ac man, @FF_Wheeler The most accurate #FantasyFootball ranker so far this season! Well… https://t.co/49y6HFnfoV


02:13 PM, Oct 06, 2018

0

See Brad Holmes other Tweets

Splxltwd_normal

Brad holmes

@bradholmes17


@pyroman1ac https://t.co/ZiHjlwIXio


03:36 PM, Oct 05, 2018

0

See Brad Holmes other Tweets

Splxltwd_normal

Brad holmes

@bradholmes17


RT @evansilva: #Bengals Pass Catchers Update: Tyler Eifert -- Out for year John Ross -- Groin, questionable at best A.J. Green --… https://t.co/LINlheNiFW


04:19 PM, Oct 04, 2018

0

See Brad Holmes other Tweets

Splxltwd_normal

Brad holmes

@bradholmes17


@pyroman1ac https://t.co/XRG0konwbt


02:42 PM, Oct 03, 2018

0

See Brad Holmes other Tweets

Splxltwd_normal

Brad holmes

@bradholmes17


RT @RotoViz: Dumpster Dives: Deep Waiver Pickups for Week 5 - by @DumpsterDiveFF #FantasyFootball https://t.co/i5xGgc7z40 https://t.co/F6XQEhLn7l


12:42 AM, Oct 03, 2018

0

See Brad Holmes other Tweets

PyromaniacMo's Spreading the Lines Of Fantasy for Week 7 - Vegas Implied Point Totals

Spreading the Lines of Fantasy - Week 7 (2018)

Posted by PyromaniacMo on 10/17/18

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


More Articals

SHARE ON

This weekly piece is intended to shed light on two primary factors that can weigh heavily upon your fantasy football decision making. Basically, we want to use Vegas in a helpful, predictive way. The first advantage to be gained exposes teams that are likely to be amongst the highest scoring of the week. Obviously, the more touchdowns a team puts up, the more fantasy points those players will have. For this, we will look at implied team totals. Generally, any team with an opening implied team total over 24 is one to pay attention to: The higher the number, the greater their chance for scoring.

 

So, now that we have identified the hottest teams of the week, we want to prognosticate even further and decide which positions, on those teams, will get the most opportunity to score. Does Vegas tell us a high scoring team will likely be playing with a lead? In other words, are they heavy favorites? If this is the case, then such a positive game-script indicates more rushing attempts. Thus, we want RBs on those teams. If Vegas expects a high scoring team to be on the losing end of a shoot-out, in other words a team is predicted to play from behind, this tells us to expect more of a passing attack. So, we should see a ground attack for big favorites and a passing game for the big underdogs.

 

That’s it. In essence, we are looking for high implied team totals and an indication as to which positions will likely get the most opportunity to score those points. 

 

Final note, I used to use opening lines. However, these would come out before the completion of the previous week’s games. Therefore, the line movement in the first days after opening would often change due to a team’s performance, injuries, etc. While a great deal of line movement later in the week primarily comes from betting trends. So, the lines reflected in the chart, come from Tuesday. This way, the spreads have been determined AFTER all of the previous week’s games and BEFORE the betting public influences line movement. There is no perfect answer here, but this way, I feel it captures the most accurate reflection of what Vegas has to offer without the clouding caused by the betting public and bookmakers adjusting the line in order to offset public money. In essence, the lines here ideally reflect what Vegas thinks without interference from betting trends. 

 

 

Vegas Implied Point total for fantasy football chart for Week 7 2018

 

 

The Chargers are home to the Titans. LA should be able in a positive game script as they are favored by nearly a TD. That said, the Titans did not give up the first rushing TD to an opposing RB until Week 6. No RB has gone for more than 85 yards against them. However, Melvin Gordon III is not a guy you mess with, he should see some volume albeit against a stout rush D. 

 

Indy is home to Buffalo. In the last 4 games, only 1 opposing RB has put up a double-digit PPR day against the Bills. While the Colts are 7.5 favorites, there is not a team in the league running at a lower percentage rate than the Colts, who only run the ball 30% of the time. Still, they are averaging the 2nd highest amount of plays per game. In the end, the script is favorable. Any team that is putting up 69 plays a game is great for an opportunity, they lack a real ground and pound back, although Marlon Mack is healthy and put up 89 rushing yards on just 12 carries last week. 

 

The Rams boast the highest spread of Week 7 against the surprising 49ers. However, do you really need me to tell you to play Gurley. The one comment I would say, roster Josh Reynolds, as Kupp has already been ruled out with an MCL injury. Reynolds was a wavier favorite last week, but did not get a chance to strut his stuff. With Cooper Kupp down, he has a nice chance to step up in one of the most prolific offenses in the league. San Fran, in every week except one, has allowed either 100 yards and/or a TD to pass catchers. All in all, 4 WRs have had 100 yard days against them, and they have surrendered 8 total receiving TDs. The Rams carry the 2nd highest implied team total of Week. We saw the 49’ers shoot it out with the Packers last week. There is a good chance this game could go the same way with plenty of opportunities to score on both sides. 

 

Tampa Bay is home to Cleveland. This game carries a close spread and is slated to score at least 50 total points. We have seen the weapons that Tampa has. Winston was fantasy’s best QB last week. On the other side, Mayfield is getting going with a Browns team on the upswing. Jarvis Landry will see coverage mainly from M.J. Stewart. According to Pro Football Focus, no other starting corner in Week 7 has allowed more fantasy points per route run than Stewart. He has allowed a whopping .67 fantasy points to routes run by the opposing team. This game could easily shoot out. The Bucs are decimated on defense, in the secondary in particular. The Browns, overall, run at the second fastest clip. As far as the Bucs, in neutral game situations, they rank the 5th fastest. The Bucs have beat the over in their last 6 games according to Cover.com. 

 

The highest expected scoring game of the week is the Bengals visiting the Chiefs. Vegas is expecting north of 58 total points. Not only that, the Chiefs have the highest implied total, as they are expected to score 32 points. The Bengals are bottom 5 in schedule-adjusted for fantasy points against versus opposing RBs and likewise, the Chiefs rank in the bottom 3 versus opposing WRs. In fact, Football Outsiders rank them dead last against an opponent’s #2 WR, calling Boyd, Mr. Tyler Boyd. For those of you playing DFS, keep in mind this is the Sunday night game.

 

Atlanta is home on Monday night football against the visiting Giants. The Falcons carry the 3rd highest implied team total of the week as they are expected to put up 30 points all by their lonesome. Janoris Jenkins has been torched this year. He should see the most of Calvin Ridley. For those of you trashing Julio, keep in mind, he leads all players in air yards, and is only 2nd in target share to Adam Thielen. Finally, he is tied with Thielen for Weighted Opportunity Rating. 

 

 


 

 

PyromaniacMo with a Founder's

 

By: PyromaniacMo

 

Subscribe to the Pyro Podcast: http://iTunes.com/Podcasts/PyroPodcast

Like us on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/pyromaniac 

Follow us on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/pyroman1ac

Become a Pyro Pro: http://bit.ly/1K5Af4R