Week 11
November 15, 2018
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Heinz offers Patrick Mahomes free ketchup for life if he throws 57 touchdown passes https://t.co/icZrI1OazG


08:04 PM, Nov 15, 2018

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RT @FantasyPros: Most accurate #FantasyFootball experts thru 10 weeks: 1) @SmolaDS 2) @mrhill9169 3) @FF_Wheeler 4) @allinkid 5)… https://t.co/33Pv1HEtzU


07:50 PM, Nov 15, 2018

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RT @FantasyPros: Most accurate #FantasyFootball experts thru 10 weeks: 1) @SmolaDS 2) @mrhill9169 3) @FF_Wheeler 4) @allinkid 5)… https://t.co/33Pv1HEtzU


07:26 PM, Nov 15, 2018

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RT @FFD260: 'Show Me Sunday – Week 11' Four Games, Four Takes with @TheFFLWire #FantasyFootball #Week11 #FFD260… https://t.co/6TpRgcniIU


07:14 PM, Nov 15, 2018

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RT @RapSheet: Health updates: #Lions WR Marvin Jones (bone bruise, knee) didn’t practice. …. #Chiefs WR Sammy Watkins (foot) will… https://t.co/EgeCE2I0U3


07:13 PM, Nov 15, 2018

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RT @pyroman1ac: Our latest Pyro Podcast is now out, sit back and listen to Houdini, @PyroStag & d-Rx provide you with the fantasy f… https://t.co/MjRRO0OEKd


04:53 PM, Nov 15, 2018

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Our latest Pyro Podcast is now out, sit back and listen to Houdini, @PyroStag & d-Rx provide you with the fantasy f… https://t.co/MjRRO0OEKd


04:50 PM, Nov 15, 2018

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@JohnBoschFF @ScottFish24 @WLWT @WCPO @Fox19News @Local12 Do it, it is for a good cause!


04:39 PM, Nov 15, 2018

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RT @FF_Wheeler: I though I was pretty accurate last week... BAM!!! https://t.co/Rk809ug3jv


02:36 PM, Nov 15, 2018

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RT @FantasyTiltPod: You know what they say, you can’t unring a bell once it has been rung. But that won’t stop @DomiNateFF and… https://t.co/DehufRpEE5


01:30 PM, Nov 15, 2018

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Must listen ⬇️⬇️⬇️ https://t.co/QLHhhl8pWT


01:30 PM, Nov 15, 2018

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RT @andyfreshh: Week 11 + Matchups Based on Last 5 Weeks Avg FF Pts Allowed to RBs https://t.co/wwoNEwpUpX


01:09 PM, Nov 15, 2018

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RT @TheHateful8FF: Looking for players to trade away or maybe to make a trade for? Check out @sbimickey newest article “Week 10 Trades… https://t.co/uNGaw98RdX


12:57 PM, Nov 15, 2018

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RT @Top2Sports: It's here! The @Top2Pod Trade Deadline Special! Including: -Players w/ the Best/Worst #FantasyFootball playoff sch… https://t.co/76MEePtv8C


12:56 PM, Nov 15, 2018

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@beerswater Awesome video. I watched it a dozen times and still don't know what to believe.


04:38 AM, Nov 15, 2018

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RT @ScottBarrettDFB: Since 2000, there have only been two games with an over/under above 59.5: -- in 2000, the Rams @ 49ers (63.0) --… https://t.co/JYvrEmJgap


10:52 PM, Nov 14, 2018

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RT @PyroStag: Through Week 10, here is the percentage of receptions by each teams running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends.… https://t.co/itKyMdiasp


10:42 PM, Nov 14, 2018

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@TheReckonerFF @danharris80 @FantasyPros @justinboone @BillEnright @Fitz_FF @JeffRatcliffe https://t.co/wglodYGpXl


02:02 AM, Nov 14, 2018

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I was projected to finish 11th after the draft. After making the second fewest moves in the league, I am now projec… https://t.co/ZyLyGdhti2


04:08 PM, Nov 13, 2018

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RT @DomiNateFF: Who did you bench on your #FantasyFootball teams in #Week10 that you regret? I’ll start…I played Fitzpatrick over… https://t.co/GZoHOiB8U7


10:54 AM, Nov 12, 2018

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RT @AdvSportsLogic: Before setting those line ups, check out out updated ranks. #FantasyFootball: Week 10 Updated Rankings QB:… https://t.co/oArauvIKdX


10:24 PM, Nov 11, 2018

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RT @FFD260: Ryan Fitzpatrick attempting to throw the lead block down. #Bucs #Redskins #NFL https://t.co/0Te1hbJEWJ


10:16 PM, Nov 11, 2018

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Chris Carson, althogh technically game time decision, he was unable to practice all week. a DNP on Friday is always… https://t.co/QMaq3ItP6n


04:45 PM, Nov 11, 2018

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RT @pyromaniacmo: Fantasy Football Narrative street - revenge games - Moncrief vs Colts & D Lewis vs. Pats. Also, Josh Gordon will fa… https://t.co/wsAtfXFglF


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@PyroStag @73Davewhite @pyroman1ac Howard = safer floor as this will be another positive game script for him - he w… https://t.co/VfShIR1Tn2


04:43 PM, Nov 11, 2018

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RT @PyroStag: Here is the Week 10 overlay of receptions to each position against what their opponent this week is allowing to run… https://t.co/xOPnnAPIIB


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Fantasy Football Narrative street - revenge games - Moncrief vs Colts & D Lewis vs. Pats. Also, Josh Gordon will fa… https://t.co/wsAtfXFglF


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RT @Top2Sports: Need last minute #DFS help? #FantasyFootballAdvice #NFL -@FFJVAPHL has you covered for #DraftKings & #FanDuel… https://t.co/FDsg12zmWm


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RT @pyroman1ac: Use Vegas to get a #FantasyFootball advantage in #NFL Week 10... and make sure to check out the detailed write-up t… https://t.co/hbrLdfbkmP


10:00 PM, Nov 10, 2018

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RT @pyromaniacmo: Of course. Another @pyroman1ac man, @FF_Wheeler The most accurate #FantasyFootball ranker so far this season! Well… https://t.co/49y6HFnfoV


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RT @evansilva: #Bengals Pass Catchers Update: Tyler Eifert -- Out for year John Ross -- Groin, questionable at best A.J. Green --… https://t.co/LINlheNiFW


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RT @RotoViz: Dumpster Dives: Deep Waiver Pickups for Week 5 - by @DumpsterDiveFF #FantasyFootball https://t.co/i5xGgc7z40 https://t.co/F6XQEhLn7l


12:42 AM, Oct 03, 2018

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PyromaniacMo's Spreading the Lines Of Fantasy for Week 7 - Vegas Implied Point Totals

Spreading the Lines of Fantasy - Week 7 (2018)

Posted by PyromaniacMo on 10/17/18

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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This weekly piece is intended to shed light on two primary factors that can weigh heavily upon your fantasy football decision making. Basically, we want to use Vegas in a helpful, predictive way. The first advantage to be gained exposes teams that are likely to be amongst the highest scoring of the week. Obviously, the more touchdowns a team puts up, the more fantasy points those players will have. For this, we will look at implied team totals. Generally, any team with an opening implied team total over 24 is one to pay attention to: The higher the number, the greater their chance for scoring.

 

So, now that we have identified the hottest teams of the week, we want to prognosticate even further and decide which positions, on those teams, will get the most opportunity to score. Does Vegas tell us a high scoring team will likely be playing with a lead? In other words, are they heavy favorites? If this is the case, then such a positive game-script indicates more rushing attempts. Thus, we want RBs on those teams. If Vegas expects a high scoring team to be on the losing end of a shoot-out, in other words a team is predicted to play from behind, this tells us to expect more of a passing attack. So, we should see a ground attack for big favorites and a passing game for the big underdogs.

 

That’s it. In essence, we are looking for high implied team totals and an indication as to which positions will likely get the most opportunity to score those points. 

 

Final note, I used to use opening lines. However, these would come out before the completion of the previous week’s games. Therefore, the line movement in the first days after opening would often change due to a team’s performance, injuries, etc. While a great deal of line movement later in the week primarily comes from betting trends. So, the lines reflected in the chart, come from Tuesday. This way, the spreads have been determined AFTER all of the previous week’s games and BEFORE the betting public influences line movement. There is no perfect answer here, but this way, I feel it captures the most accurate reflection of what Vegas has to offer without the clouding caused by the betting public and bookmakers adjusting the line in order to offset public money. In essence, the lines here ideally reflect what Vegas thinks without interference from betting trends. 

 

 

Vegas Implied Point total for fantasy football chart for Week 7 2018

 

 

The Chargers are home to the Titans. LA should be able in a positive game script as they are favored by nearly a TD. That said, the Titans did not give up the first rushing TD to an opposing RB until Week 6. No RB has gone for more than 85 yards against them. However, Melvin Gordon III is not a guy you mess with, he should see some volume albeit against a stout rush D. 

 

Indy is home to Buffalo. In the last 4 games, only 1 opposing RB has put up a double-digit PPR day against the Bills. While the Colts are 7.5 favorites, there is not a team in the league running at a lower percentage rate than the Colts, who only run the ball 30% of the time. Still, they are averaging the 2nd highest amount of plays per game. In the end, the script is favorable. Any team that is putting up 69 plays a game is great for an opportunity, they lack a real ground and pound back, although Marlon Mack is healthy and put up 89 rushing yards on just 12 carries last week. 

 

The Rams boast the highest spread of Week 7 against the surprising 49ers. However, do you really need me to tell you to play Gurley. The one comment I would say, roster Josh Reynolds, as Kupp has already been ruled out with an MCL injury. Reynolds was a wavier favorite last week, but did not get a chance to strut his stuff. With Cooper Kupp down, he has a nice chance to step up in one of the most prolific offenses in the league. San Fran, in every week except one, has allowed either 100 yards and/or a TD to pass catchers. All in all, 4 WRs have had 100 yard days against them, and they have surrendered 8 total receiving TDs. The Rams carry the 2nd highest implied team total of Week. We saw the 49’ers shoot it out with the Packers last week. There is a good chance this game could go the same way with plenty of opportunities to score on both sides. 

 

Tampa Bay is home to Cleveland. This game carries a close spread and is slated to score at least 50 total points. We have seen the weapons that Tampa has. Winston was fantasy’s best QB last week. On the other side, Mayfield is getting going with a Browns team on the upswing. Jarvis Landry will see coverage mainly from M.J. Stewart. According to Pro Football Focus, no other starting corner in Week 7 has allowed more fantasy points per route run than Stewart. He has allowed a whopping .67 fantasy points to routes run by the opposing team. This game could easily shoot out. The Bucs are decimated on defense, in the secondary in particular. The Browns, overall, run at the second fastest clip. As far as the Bucs, in neutral game situations, they rank the 5th fastest. The Bucs have beat the over in their last 6 games according to Cover.com. 

 

The highest expected scoring game of the week is the Bengals visiting the Chiefs. Vegas is expecting north of 58 total points. Not only that, the Chiefs have the highest implied total, as they are expected to score 32 points. The Bengals are bottom 5 in schedule-adjusted for fantasy points against versus opposing RBs and likewise, the Chiefs rank in the bottom 3 versus opposing WRs. In fact, Football Outsiders rank them dead last against an opponent’s #2 WR, calling Boyd, Mr. Tyler Boyd. For those of you playing DFS, keep in mind this is the Sunday night game.

 

Atlanta is home on Monday night football against the visiting Giants. The Falcons carry the 3rd highest implied team total of the week as they are expected to put up 30 points all by their lonesome. Janoris Jenkins has been torched this year. He should see the most of Calvin Ridley. For those of you trashing Julio, keep in mind, he leads all players in air yards, and is only 2nd in target share to Adam Thielen. Finally, he is tied with Thielen for Weighted Opportunity Rating. 

 

 


 

 

PyromaniacMo with a Founder's

 

By: PyromaniacMo

 

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