Week 11
November 15, 2018
Articles
Newsfeeds
SHARE

Pyro® Twitterfeed

Qmwftfwy_normal

Anthony staggs

@PyroStag


@richardson2_a Why is a one win team going to play Jonathan Stewart? What good does that do for the franchise?


09:05 PM, Nov 15, 2018

0

See Anthony Staggs other Tweets

Ls8qcqzp_normal

Wheeler

@FF_Wheeler


@NavyYardNats Neither if you can help it. If not, I'm going to guess Carson gets the bulk of the touches if he's he… https://t.co/cjTnmhTfVn


08:56 PM, Nov 15, 2018

1

See Wheeler other Tweets

Qmwftfwy_normal

Anthony staggs

@PyroStag


But why tho. https://t.co/OYzOE8vF8t


08:54 PM, Nov 15, 2018

0

See Anthony Staggs other Tweets

Ls8qcqzp_normal

Wheeler

@FF_Wheeler


@pyroman1ac Heinz offered Dimaggio 10k (25% of his salary) had his 56 game hit streak reached 57 games. I believe… https://t.co/lwZsQ45BkN


08:52 PM, Nov 15, 2018

0

See Wheeler other Tweets

Sxfrtkuc_normal

Pyromaniac.com

@pyroman1ac


Heinz offers Patrick Mahomes free ketchup for life if he throws 57 touchdown passes https://t.co/icZrI1OazG


08:04 PM, Nov 15, 2018

3

See Pyromaniac.com other Tweets

Qmwftfwy_normal

Anthony staggs

@PyroStag


RT @FantasyPros: Most accurate #FantasyFootball experts thru 10 weeks: 1) @SmolaDS 2) @mrhill9169 3) @FF_Wheeler 4) @allinkid 5)… https://t.co/33Pv1HEtzU


07:50 PM, Nov 15, 2018

0

See Anthony Staggs other Tweets

Ukwcolve_normal

Waz

@WazNFL


@DTC_IzzyE @TheAllenEcho @DHH_Tyler @_NickWhalen @jtuvey @ScottFish24 @btxj @ExplosiveOutput @FFHurcules… https://t.co/MPAH45DxTM


07:27 PM, Nov 15, 2018

2

See Waz other Tweets

Ukwcolve_normal

Waz

@WazNFL


RT @FantasyPros: Most accurate #FantasyFootball experts thru 10 weeks: 1) @SmolaDS 2) @mrhill9169 3) @FF_Wheeler 4) @allinkid 5)… https://t.co/33Pv1HEtzU


07:26 PM, Nov 15, 2018

0

See Waz other Tweets

Qmwftfwy_normal

Anthony staggs

@PyroStag


RT @FFD260: 'Show Me Sunday – Week 11' Four Games, Four Takes with @TheFFLWire #FantasyFootball #Week11 #FFD260… https://t.co/6TpRgcniIU


07:14 PM, Nov 15, 2018

0

See Anthony Staggs other Tweets

Qmwftfwy_normal

Anthony staggs

@PyroStag


RT @RapSheet: Health updates: #Lions WR Marvin Jones (bone bruise, knee) didn’t practice. …. #Chiefs WR Sammy Watkins (foot) will… https://t.co/EgeCE2I0U3


07:13 PM, Nov 15, 2018

0

See Anthony Staggs other Tweets

Sxfrtkuc_normal

Pyromaniac.com

@pyroman1ac


Our latest Pyro Podcast is now out, sit back and listen to Houdini, @PyroStag & d-Rx provide you with the fantasy f… https://t.co/MjRRO0OEKd


04:50 PM, Nov 15, 2018

2

See Pyromaniac.com other Tweets

Dsc3d1twsaaalmr

Sxfrtkuc_normal

Pyromaniac.com

@pyroman1ac


RT @FF_Wheeler: I though I was pretty accurate last week... BAM!!! https://t.co/Rk809ug3jv


02:36 PM, Nov 15, 2018

0

See Pyromaniac.com other Tweets

Ls8qcqzp_normal

Wheeler

@FF_Wheeler


RT @FantasyTiltPod: You know what they say, you can’t unring a bell once it has been rung. But that won’t stop @DomiNateFF and… https://t.co/DehufRpEE5


01:30 PM, Nov 15, 2018

0

See Wheeler other Tweets

Ls8qcqzp_normal

Wheeler

@FF_Wheeler


Must listen ⬇️⬇️⬇️ https://t.co/QLHhhl8pWT


01:30 PM, Nov 15, 2018

2

See Wheeler other Tweets

Dsa1bk3xqaabfct

Ls8qcqzp_normal

Wheeler

@FF_Wheeler


RT @andyfreshh: Week 11 + Matchups Based on Last 5 Weeks Avg FF Pts Allowed to RBs https://t.co/wwoNEwpUpX


01:09 PM, Nov 15, 2018

0

See Wheeler other Tweets

Ukwcolve_normal

Waz

@WazNFL


@beerswater Awesome video. I watched it a dozen times and still don't know what to believe.


04:38 AM, Nov 15, 2018

1

See Waz other Tweets

Sxfrtkuc_normal

Pyromaniac.com

@pyroman1ac


RT @ScottBarrettDFB: Since 2000, there have only been two games with an over/under above 59.5: -- in 2000, the Rams @ 49ers (63.0) --… https://t.co/JYvrEmJgap


10:52 PM, Nov 14, 2018

0

See Pyromaniac.com other Tweets

Sxfrtkuc_normal

Pyromaniac.com

@pyroman1ac


RT @PyroStag: Through Week 10, here is the percentage of receptions by each teams running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends.… https://t.co/itKyMdiasp


10:42 PM, Nov 14, 2018

0

See Pyromaniac.com other Tweets

Dr7zy5kwkaatjje

Ukwcolve_normal

Waz

@WazNFL


@TheReckonerFF @danharris80 @FantasyPros @justinboone @BillEnright @Fitz_FF @JeffRatcliffe https://t.co/wglodYGpXl


02:02 AM, Nov 14, 2018

1

See Waz other Tweets

Ukwcolve_normal

Waz

@WazNFL


I was projected to finish 11th after the draft. After making the second fewest moves in the league, I am now projec… https://t.co/ZyLyGdhti2


04:08 PM, Nov 13, 2018

1

See Waz other Tweets

R_npje3r_normal

Pk ripper 🤜💥🤛

@amaze652


RT @DomiNateFF: Who did you bench on your #FantasyFootball teams in #Week10 that you regret? I’ll start…I played Fitzpatrick over… https://t.co/GZoHOiB8U7


10:54 AM, Nov 12, 2018

0

See PK Ripper 🤜💥🤛 other Tweets

R_npje3r_normal

Pk ripper 🤜💥🤛

@amaze652


RT @AdvSportsLogic: Before setting those line ups, check out out updated ranks. #FantasyFootball: Week 10 Updated Rankings QB:… https://t.co/oArauvIKdX


10:24 PM, Nov 11, 2018

0

See PK Ripper 🤜💥🤛 other Tweets

He8yo46pym1-z-6_

R_npje3r_normal

Pk ripper 🤜💥🤛

@amaze652


RT @FFD260: Ryan Fitzpatrick attempting to throw the lead block down. #Bucs #Redskins #NFL https://t.co/0Te1hbJEWJ


10:16 PM, Nov 11, 2018

0

See PK Ripper 🤜💥🤛 other Tweets

Lw5fkocm_normal

Mo

@pyromaniacmo


Chris Carson, althogh technically game time decision, he was unable to practice all week. a DNP on Friday is always… https://t.co/QMaq3ItP6n


04:45 PM, Nov 11, 2018

1

See Mo other Tweets

R_npje3r_normal

Pk ripper 🤜💥🤛

@amaze652


RT @pyromaniacmo: Fantasy Football Narrative street - revenge games - Moncrief vs Colts & D Lewis vs. Pats. Also, Josh Gordon will fa… https://t.co/wsAtfXFglF


04:43 PM, Nov 11, 2018

0

See PK Ripper 🤜💥🤛 other Tweets

Lw5fkocm_normal

Mo

@pyromaniacmo


@PyroStag @73Davewhite @pyroman1ac Howard = safer floor as this will be another positive game script for him - he w… https://t.co/VfShIR1Tn2


04:43 PM, Nov 11, 2018

1

See Mo other Tweets

Lw5fkocm_normal

Mo

@pyromaniacmo


RT @PyroStag: Here is the Week 10 overlay of receptions to each position against what their opponent this week is allowing to run… https://t.co/xOPnnAPIIB


04:35 PM, Nov 11, 2018

0

See Mo other Tweets

Lw5fkocm_normal

Mo

@pyromaniacmo


Fantasy Football Narrative street - revenge games - Moncrief vs Colts & D Lewis vs. Pats. Also, Josh Gordon will fa… https://t.co/wsAtfXFglF


04:33 PM, Nov 11, 2018

1

See Mo other Tweets

R_npje3r_normal

Pk ripper 🤜💥🤛

@amaze652


RT @Top2Sports: Need last minute #DFS help? #FantasyFootballAdvice #NFL -@FFJVAPHL has you covered for #DraftKings & #FanDuel… https://t.co/FDsg12zmWm


04:10 PM, Nov 11, 2018

0

See PK Ripper 🤜💥🤛 other Tweets

Lw5fkocm_normal

Mo

@pyromaniacmo


RT @pyroman1ac: Use Vegas to get a #FantasyFootball advantage in #NFL Week 10... and make sure to check out the detailed write-up t… https://t.co/hbrLdfbkmP


10:00 PM, Nov 10, 2018

0

See Mo other Tweets

Splxltwd_normal

Brad holmes

@bradholmes17


RT @pyromaniacmo: Of course. Another @pyroman1ac man, @FF_Wheeler The most accurate #FantasyFootball ranker so far this season! Well… https://t.co/49y6HFnfoV


02:13 PM, Oct 06, 2018

0

See Brad Holmes other Tweets

Splxltwd_normal

Brad holmes

@bradholmes17


@pyroman1ac https://t.co/ZiHjlwIXio


03:36 PM, Oct 05, 2018

0

See Brad Holmes other Tweets

Splxltwd_normal

Brad holmes

@bradholmes17


RT @evansilva: #Bengals Pass Catchers Update: Tyler Eifert -- Out for year John Ross -- Groin, questionable at best A.J. Green --… https://t.co/LINlheNiFW


04:19 PM, Oct 04, 2018

0

See Brad Holmes other Tweets

Splxltwd_normal

Brad holmes

@bradholmes17


@pyroman1ac https://t.co/XRG0konwbt


02:42 PM, Oct 03, 2018

0

See Brad Holmes other Tweets

Splxltwd_normal

Brad holmes

@bradholmes17


RT @RotoViz: Dumpster Dives: Deep Waiver Pickups for Week 5 - by @DumpsterDiveFF #FantasyFootball https://t.co/i5xGgc7z40 https://t.co/F6XQEhLn7l


12:42 AM, Oct 03, 2018

0

See Brad Holmes other Tweets

PyromaniacMo's Spreading the Lines Of Fantasy for Week 8 - Vegas Implied Point Totals

Spreading the Lines of Fantasy - Week 8 (2018)

Posted by PyromaniacMo on 10/26/18

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


More Articals

SHARE ON

This weekly piece is intended to shed light on two primary factors that can weigh heavily upon your fantasy football decision making. Basically, we want to use Vegas in a helpful, predictive way. The first advantage to be gained exposes teams that are likely to be amongst the highest scoring of the week. Obviously, the more touchdowns a team puts up, the more fantasy points those players will have. For this, we will look at implied team totals. Generally, any team with an opening implied team total over 24 is one to pay attention to: The higher the number, the greater their chance for scoring.


So, now that we have identified the hottest teams of the week, we want to prognosticate even further and decide which positions, on those teams, will get the most opportunity to score. Does Vegas tell us a high scoring team will likely be playing with a lead? In other words, are they heavy favorites? If this is the case, then such a positive game-script indicates more rushing attempts. Thus, we want RBs on those teams. If Vegas expects a high scoring team to be on the losing end of a shoot-out, in other words, a team is predicted to play from behind, this tells us to expect more of a passing attack. So, we should see a ground attack for big favorites and a passing game for the big underdogs.


That’s it. In essence, we are looking for high implied team totals and an indication as to which positions will likely get the most opportunity to score those points.

 

Final note, I used to use opening lines. However, these would come out before the completion of the previous week’s games. Therefore, the line movement in the first days after opening would often change due to a team’s performance, injuries, etc. While a great deal of line movement later in the week primarily comes from betting trends. So, the lines reflected in the chart, come from Tuesday. This way, the spreads have been determined AFTER all of the previous week’s games and BEFORE the betting public influences line movement. There is no perfect answer here, but this way, I feel it captures the most accurate reflection of what Vegas has to offer without the clouding caused by the betting public and bookmakers adjusting the line in order to offset public money. In essence, the lines here ideally reflect what Vegas thinks without interference from betting trends. 

 

 

Vegas Implied Point Total for Week 8


 

This is the highest expected scoring week thus far according to Vegas, based on the average implied team totals. So get your popcorn ready. 

 

Right off the bat, Houston is expected to score north of 26 points and they have a 7.5 spread at home. This suggests opportunities to score and because of the positive game script, those opportunities should come from the running backs. Lamar Miller, rose from the dead and got you that 100-yard rushing bonus last week. The opportunity is there for him to do it again according to expected usage. He has a floor of 15 looks per game and perhaps he could push 20 again this week. 

 

The Lions are home and also expected to put up just over 26 points against the visiting Seahawks. This should be a neutral game script as the spread is within a field goal. Their rookie RB, Kerryon Johnson, has witnessed an increase in usage in each of the last 3 games, culminating in a plus 20 touch game last week. The Lions boast one of the best receiving trios in the league. Golladay should be cruising as the man has at least 3 TDs called back due to penalties on the field. Alas, the woes of a Lions fan, but I digress… Regardless, the potential is there for a Vesuvian performance from the boys from Motown. This has grown into something of a rivalry with a few close, questionable finishes over the years.  

 

Tampa is visiting the Bengals. At 54 points, this is the 3rd highest total of the week. The game is dripping with shootout potential and one of those games you can stack with players on both sides. Both teams are in the top 8 for passing percentage per game. Tampa is passing the ball on 63.1% of play calls; whereas the Bengals are passing on 65.1%. Tampa’s corners are horrific and Dalton will look to take advantage. The Bengals look good at all fantasy positions. With Tampa, you want to rely on the passing game in this potential 50 burger.

 

Jordan Howard could get it going in Week 8. I know the level of panic owners have at his lack of usage with the rise of Cohen. The Bears should be up early and looking to take the air out of the ball. Remember, the Jets will be without Enunwa again. Plus, last week, they lost Powell for the season. Kearse laid a goose egg. The talent is depleted, to say the least. The Bears are home and favored by a full TD. Not only that, they have an implied total of 26.25. Latavius Murray put up 69 and 2 TDs last week. In Week 6, Marlon Mack rushed for 89 yards on just 12 carries against this Jets D. Not only that, Trubisky could look to take advantage of their hobbled secondary. The Jets have 75% of their secondary listed as questionable. In PPR leagues, over the course of the last 5 weeks, Mitch, the Biscuit, Trubisky is fantasy’s best QB on a pts per game basis. A very likely outcome for this game sees the Bears get up early and stay there running the ball with Howard. Of course, that assumes a sound coaching mind, which in today’s NFL is by no means a guarantee.

 

Coming in at the 2nd highest expected net game total, we have Denver visiting the Chiefs. Denver turned it up last week. So much so, their backup QB went batshit crazy, go Broncos! Regardless, Sanders continues to get it done for Denver and Lindsay is magic waiting to happen. Denver will need to pass to stay in this one as KC is favored by 10, the second highest spread of the week. KC is expected to score 32.5. Start ‘em if ya got ‘em! What with the expected points and the positive game script, this is a huge opportunity for Hunt, who is in contention for scoring the most fantasy points at the position this week according to the Vegas numbers. The Denver defensive line is allowing 4.85 adjusted line yards, only 5 teams allow more. 

 

Pittsburgh is home against the Browns. The Steelers are expected to score north of 29 points and carry a favorable spread of 8 points. Bell has officially been ruled out as he did not show up for a Wednesday meeting. So Conner owners breathe a collective sigh of relief knowing they have at least one more week of the Terminator (I know the first name is not exactly the same, but still). Earlier this season, Conner put up 36.2 PPR points against the Brownies. Granted, the second meeting within a season usually suggests lower numbers as there is increased familiarity between the teams, more tape, and each side has accumulated bumps and bruises along the way. Still, it is a prime spot for Conner. On the other side, Cleveland will look to play catch-up most of the game, relying on Baker’s arm.

 

Oakland is the 29th ranked DVOA defense. Mack has been on a two-week roll. Although the Colts are on the road, they have been putting up points and have a team implied total of 26.25. Mack could look to take advantage. Indy boasts the fastest paced offense in the league. Like always, we are looking for opportunities, well, because they move fast, they go through more plays per game. That spells opportunity. In the last 4 games, Andrew Luck has put up over 30 fantasy points on 3 occasions. 

 

The Rams are home to Green Bay. This game has the highest overall expected total according to Vegas. The Rams themselves carry the highest implied team total at a whopping 33.25. Finally, they have the third highest game spread. For Green Bay, and the healthiest Aaron Rodgers we have seen, the passing game could be on fire, heck the Packers will have to be blazing if they want to stay in this one. For the Rams, Gurley will be jammed into a plethora of DFS lineups this week. He should be the top owned back with a projected ownership of 40%. His floor is just too high. Monitor Kupp as he attempts to return to the field, but other than that, this could be a bonanza!

 

The Vikings are home to the Saints in the Sunday night match. This game is expected to be the 4th highest scoring game of the week and one of five that should go over 50 in total. Minnesota has been notoriously bad all year against the TE spot. I trotted out Herndon last week and indeed, he paid off in DFS as he was in the top 10 TE scorers. The opportunity cost was fantastic as it allowed for higher priced players I normally would not have exposure to. So, just how bad is the Vikings D, particularly over the middle? According to Football Outsiders, they rank 27th against opposing TEs and dead last against opposing RBs catching passes. They lost Mike Hughes to IR. He was already a weak spot in the secondary and now they have a few liabilities back there. Plus, Linval Joseph, a one-man wrecking crew, is listed as Questionable, plus an additional 3 starters, many of whom thrust into starting due to past injuries. This could be a phenomenal Kamara game. He will certainly be low owned in DFs and could be a nice pivot play. I might even give old Ben Watson, a scholar amongst gentlemen, by the way, a chance. He got in the end zone last week and put up 43 yards on 6 targets.

 

At a whopping 14 points, the Patriots carry the highest spread of the week. They are visiting Buffalo. Last week, they bought up all the Ensure dietary supplement they could get their hands on, pumped it directly into Derek Anderson’s veins, and wheeled that ole’ bag of bones onto the field. Unsurprisingly, he is Questionable this week complaining of aches, pains, a slight chill, and too many of those damn kids on his lawn! If only the Patriots RB situation were clear. Sony Michel is Doubtful. That leaves White, their pass-catching back, and Kenjon Barner, who was a huge waiver wire pickup this past week. Still, White dominated the looks getting 21 last week to Barner’s 10. While you certainly have the faith in White, there is a possible scenario that sees the Patriots up by a couple scores and they choose to rest James White and showcase Barner for evaluation purposes going forward…with Wild Bill at the helm, you just never know

 

 


 

 

 

PyromaniacMo with a Founder's

 

By: PyromaniacMo

 

Subscribe to the Pyro Podcast: http://iTunes.com/Podcasts/PyroPodcast

Like us on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/pyromaniac 

Follow us on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/pyroman1ac

Become a Pyro Pro: http://bit.ly/1K5Af4R