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RT @Mikel_Jollett: TRUMP: John McCain sucks but you know who I like? That Kim Jong Un fellow. REPUBLICANS: This is our guy!


12:45 AM, Mar 24, 2019

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@BenjaminSolak I hope your parents have signed your permissions slip for this. Congrats.


12:27 AM, Mar 24, 2019

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RT @ProudResister: The crook who cried “Witch Hunt” has not tweeted in 24 hours. Something is up.


10:57 PM, Mar 23, 2019

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RT @StripeHype: Our @DP_NFL has his full 2 round NFL mock draft. #NFLDraft #Bengals https://t.co/oD7ZEMkCwj


10:04 PM, Mar 23, 2019

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Agreed. https://t.co/2WSL3WGUdr


10:02 PM, Mar 23, 2019

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RT @StephenKing: Truer words never spoken. Hard to believe any armed services vets can continue to support the draft-dodger presiden… https://t.co/P3fi1nlkMU


09:57 PM, Mar 23, 2019

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Anthony staggs

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@DynastyGuruFF Yeah I’m near there. Sounds like a plan.


08:10 PM, Mar 23, 2019

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@DynastyGuruFF Haha I’m Chicago area too right? I likely live right down the street.


07:41 PM, Mar 23, 2019

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RT @DBro_FFB: SE PAR ATION Skills Dante Pettis Hype Train Roll On https://t.co/PWxperr0S1


06:30 PM, Mar 23, 2019

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RT @drafting_king: The JuJu #Hype Train has officially derailed. I'll break down why he's a potential Sell High Candidate with my late… https://t.co/bbherrXe7C


06:30 PM, Mar 23, 2019

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RT @fntsyfbconnect: My Perfect Running back pairings for this #nfldraft on @GoingFor_2 Who do you want to see the top rbs play for? https://t.co/NYlai8069t


06:27 PM, Mar 23, 2019

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@NYJets_Media Bell, Jamal, CJ,BigCat, and my sleeper is Henry Anderson


06:26 PM, Mar 23, 2019

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This is the kind of stat line you hope for in your fantasy AAF league. #ORLvsATL https://t.co/UaC7wgSIRR


06:24 PM, Mar 23, 2019

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RT @LeviAndrewFF: Can you gues the player, who would you want? Stats from the last two years Player A: 207 rushes, 969 yds, 4TDs, 51… https://t.co/LkhhXjfosj


05:40 PM, Mar 23, 2019

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RT @SportsCenter: He used an empty bottle as a speed bag 🤯 (via @amirkingkhan) https://t.co/NB0sbyUhHE


04:30 PM, Mar 23, 2019

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@WazNFL @LopsidedTrades It’s Chicago summer man. Just take the small wins


03:12 PM, Mar 23, 2019

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@LopsidedTrades @PyroStag We actually get a high in the mid 40s! You just KNOW Staggs is in shorts.


02:40 PM, Mar 23, 2019

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@SpoonfulOfSport Now you belong.


03:16 AM, Mar 23, 2019

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@SpoonfulOfSport It doesn't belong, it's acceptable.


03:11 AM, Mar 23, 2019

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@friscojosh I'm totally going off a Reddit post of someone who attended TedxUGA that he just spoke at. I assume mor… https://t.co/kId1D0IotE


03:05 AM, Mar 23, 2019

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RT @TheQuantEdge: Wondering how to attack rookies in best ball? @OverHypedSleepr has answers for you. https://t.co/hYS0c9xaCI


12:51 AM, Mar 23, 2019

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RT @TodfromPa: @TheQuantEdge FREE POD NFL Bestball Edge #5 @OverHypedSleepr discussing Roster Construction on Fanball&1rst part i… https://t.co/VEXC4AG0jt


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@LateRoundQB You da man JJ 👍


04:00 PM, Mar 22, 2019

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RT @GOATdistrict: 🔥🎧🔥 📡Check out the latest #GOATcast with @TodfromPa from @TheQuantEdge as he joins @OverHypedSleepr & JD to talk al… https://t.co/ifQBNcoinC


03:44 PM, Mar 22, 2019

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@adamlevitan Should be back in the saddle by OTA's, no reason to panic or downgrade.


03:44 PM, Mar 22, 2019

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Mo

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As a Nick Chubb owner. This sux! https://t.co/2x8eV6Tn0g


07:02 PM, Feb 11, 2019

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Ah yes. The Browns continuing a fine tradition of creating a positive culture and team dynamic. https://t.co/UfqdIHe3nr


07:00 PM, Feb 11, 2019

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RT @MaclandJ: So I’ve got rankings updated @DynastyHHPod I’m probably wrong according to some & giving away market inefficiencies… https://t.co/cFriuwuyYh


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RT @PaulCrane7: NEW Scout's Honor podcast with Joe Flacco's most likely landing spot and the OC who may join him. Problems in PIT i… https://t.co/vsfgxPVl7V


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RT @Uncle_Odds: James White #DFS If you’re taking a shot with the Patriots backfield for me it would be White #NEvsLAC #GoPats C… https://t.co/1SqVcHyhS7


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RT @evansilva: #Bengals Pass Catchers Update: Tyler Eifert -- Out for year John Ross -- Groin, questionable at best A.J. Green --… https://t.co/LINlheNiFW


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RT @RotoViz: Dumpster Dives: Deep Waiver Pickups for Week 5 - by @DumpsterDiveFF #FantasyFootball https://t.co/i5xGgc7z40 https://t.co/F6XQEhLn7l


12:42 AM, Oct 03, 2018

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PyromaniacMo's Spreading the Lines Of Fantasy for Week 8 - Vegas Implied Point Totals

Spreading the Lines of Fantasy - Week 8 (2018)

Posted by PyromaniacMo on 10/26/18

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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This weekly piece is intended to shed light on two primary factors that can weigh heavily upon your fantasy football decision making. Basically, we want to use Vegas in a helpful, predictive way. The first advantage to be gained exposes teams that are likely to be amongst the highest scoring of the week. Obviously, the more touchdowns a team puts up, the more fantasy points those players will have. For this, we will look at implied team totals. Generally, any team with an opening implied team total over 24 is one to pay attention to: The higher the number, the greater their chance for scoring.


So, now that we have identified the hottest teams of the week, we want to prognosticate even further and decide which positions, on those teams, will get the most opportunity to score. Does Vegas tell us a high scoring team will likely be playing with a lead? In other words, are they heavy favorites? If this is the case, then such a positive game-script indicates more rushing attempts. Thus, we want RBs on those teams. If Vegas expects a high scoring team to be on the losing end of a shoot-out, in other words, a team is predicted to play from behind, this tells us to expect more of a passing attack. So, we should see a ground attack for big favorites and a passing game for the big underdogs.


That’s it. In essence, we are looking for high implied team totals and an indication as to which positions will likely get the most opportunity to score those points.

 

Final note, I used to use opening lines. However, these would come out before the completion of the previous week’s games. Therefore, the line movement in the first days after opening would often change due to a team’s performance, injuries, etc. While a great deal of line movement later in the week primarily comes from betting trends. So, the lines reflected in the chart, come from Tuesday. This way, the spreads have been determined AFTER all of the previous week’s games and BEFORE the betting public influences line movement. There is no perfect answer here, but this way, I feel it captures the most accurate reflection of what Vegas has to offer without the clouding caused by the betting public and bookmakers adjusting the line in order to offset public money. In essence, the lines here ideally reflect what Vegas thinks without interference from betting trends. 

 

 

Vegas Implied Point Total for Week 8


 

This is the highest expected scoring week thus far according to Vegas, based on the average implied team totals. So get your popcorn ready. 

 

Right off the bat, Houston is expected to score north of 26 points and they have a 7.5 spread at home. This suggests opportunities to score and because of the positive game script, those opportunities should come from the running backs. Lamar Miller, rose from the dead and got you that 100-yard rushing bonus last week. The opportunity is there for him to do it again according to expected usage. He has a floor of 15 looks per game and perhaps he could push 20 again this week. 

 

The Lions are home and also expected to put up just over 26 points against the visiting Seahawks. This should be a neutral game script as the spread is within a field goal. Their rookie RB, Kerryon Johnson, has witnessed an increase in usage in each of the last 3 games, culminating in a plus 20 touch game last week. The Lions boast one of the best receiving trios in the league. Golladay should be cruising as the man has at least 3 TDs called back due to penalties on the field. Alas, the woes of a Lions fan, but I digress… Regardless, the potential is there for a Vesuvian performance from the boys from Motown. This has grown into something of a rivalry with a few close, questionable finishes over the years.  

 

Tampa is visiting the Bengals. At 54 points, this is the 3rd highest total of the week. The game is dripping with shootout potential and one of those games you can stack with players on both sides. Both teams are in the top 8 for passing percentage per game. Tampa is passing the ball on 63.1% of play calls; whereas the Bengals are passing on 65.1%. Tampa’s corners are horrific and Dalton will look to take advantage. The Bengals look good at all fantasy positions. With Tampa, you want to rely on the passing game in this potential 50 burger.

 

Jordan Howard could get it going in Week 8. I know the level of panic owners have at his lack of usage with the rise of Cohen. The Bears should be up early and looking to take the air out of the ball. Remember, the Jets will be without Enunwa again. Plus, last week, they lost Powell for the season. Kearse laid a goose egg. The talent is depleted, to say the least. The Bears are home and favored by a full TD. Not only that, they have an implied total of 26.25. Latavius Murray put up 69 and 2 TDs last week. In Week 6, Marlon Mack rushed for 89 yards on just 12 carries against this Jets D. Not only that, Trubisky could look to take advantage of their hobbled secondary. The Jets have 75% of their secondary listed as questionable. In PPR leagues, over the course of the last 5 weeks, Mitch, the Biscuit, Trubisky is fantasy’s best QB on a pts per game basis. A very likely outcome for this game sees the Bears get up early and stay there running the ball with Howard. Of course, that assumes a sound coaching mind, which in today’s NFL is by no means a guarantee.

 

Coming in at the 2nd highest expected net game total, we have Denver visiting the Chiefs. Denver turned it up last week. So much so, their backup QB went batshit crazy, go Broncos! Regardless, Sanders continues to get it done for Denver and Lindsay is magic waiting to happen. Denver will need to pass to stay in this one as KC is favored by 10, the second highest spread of the week. KC is expected to score 32.5. Start ‘em if ya got ‘em! What with the expected points and the positive game script, this is a huge opportunity for Hunt, who is in contention for scoring the most fantasy points at the position this week according to the Vegas numbers. The Denver defensive line is allowing 4.85 adjusted line yards, only 5 teams allow more. 

 

Pittsburgh is home against the Browns. The Steelers are expected to score north of 29 points and carry a favorable spread of 8 points. Bell has officially been ruled out as he did not show up for a Wednesday meeting. So Conner owners breathe a collective sigh of relief knowing they have at least one more week of the Terminator (I know the first name is not exactly the same, but still). Earlier this season, Conner put up 36.2 PPR points against the Brownies. Granted, the second meeting within a season usually suggests lower numbers as there is increased familiarity between the teams, more tape, and each side has accumulated bumps and bruises along the way. Still, it is a prime spot for Conner. On the other side, Cleveland will look to play catch-up most of the game, relying on Baker’s arm.

 

Oakland is the 29th ranked DVOA defense. Mack has been on a two-week roll. Although the Colts are on the road, they have been putting up points and have a team implied total of 26.25. Mack could look to take advantage. Indy boasts the fastest paced offense in the league. Like always, we are looking for opportunities, well, because they move fast, they go through more plays per game. That spells opportunity. In the last 4 games, Andrew Luck has put up over 30 fantasy points on 3 occasions. 

 

The Rams are home to Green Bay. This game has the highest overall expected total according to Vegas. The Rams themselves carry the highest implied team total at a whopping 33.25. Finally, they have the third highest game spread. For Green Bay, and the healthiest Aaron Rodgers we have seen, the passing game could be on fire, heck the Packers will have to be blazing if they want to stay in this one. For the Rams, Gurley will be jammed into a plethora of DFS lineups this week. He should be the top owned back with a projected ownership of 40%. His floor is just too high. Monitor Kupp as he attempts to return to the field, but other than that, this could be a bonanza!

 

The Vikings are home to the Saints in the Sunday night match. This game is expected to be the 4th highest scoring game of the week and one of five that should go over 50 in total. Minnesota has been notoriously bad all year against the TE spot. I trotted out Herndon last week and indeed, he paid off in DFS as he was in the top 10 TE scorers. The opportunity cost was fantastic as it allowed for higher priced players I normally would not have exposure to. So, just how bad is the Vikings D, particularly over the middle? According to Football Outsiders, they rank 27th against opposing TEs and dead last against opposing RBs catching passes. They lost Mike Hughes to IR. He was already a weak spot in the secondary and now they have a few liabilities back there. Plus, Linval Joseph, a one-man wrecking crew, is listed as Questionable, plus an additional 3 starters, many of whom thrust into starting due to past injuries. This could be a phenomenal Kamara game. He will certainly be low owned in DFs and could be a nice pivot play. I might even give old Ben Watson, a scholar amongst gentlemen, by the way, a chance. He got in the end zone last week and put up 43 yards on 6 targets.

 

At a whopping 14 points, the Patriots carry the highest spread of the week. They are visiting Buffalo. Last week, they bought up all the Ensure dietary supplement they could get their hands on, pumped it directly into Derek Anderson’s veins, and wheeled that ole’ bag of bones onto the field. Unsurprisingly, he is Questionable this week complaining of aches, pains, a slight chill, and too many of those damn kids on his lawn! If only the Patriots RB situation were clear. Sony Michel is Doubtful. That leaves White, their pass-catching back, and Kenjon Barner, who was a huge waiver wire pickup this past week. Still, White dominated the looks getting 21 last week to Barner’s 10. While you certainly have the faith in White, there is a possible scenario that sees the Patriots up by a couple scores and they choose to rest James White and showcase Barner for evaluation purposes going forward…with Wild Bill at the helm, you just never know

 

 


 

 

 

PyromaniacMo with a Founder's

 

By: PyromaniacMo

 

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