July 17, 2018


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LeSean McCoy

Buffalo Bills

McCoy starring down 30 with uncertainty

LeSean McCoy, despite ending the year as the #7 fantasy running back in standard leagues was a slight disappointment for fantasy owners last year. McCoy played in all 16 regular season games, but only cracked 100 yards rushing 4 times, and averaged 4.0 yards per rush, which was 23rd in the NFL. That all happened with a formidable QB with a scrambling ability that defenses had to respect, presumably allowing McCoy some more room before tacklers ascended.
The Bills have the least sexy QB situation in the entire NFL in my opinion. With Tyrod Taylor at the helm for most of the season last year, the bills had the 31st passing offense. None of the QBs on the Bills roster are considered mobile and without a wide receiver on their roster worthy of drafting in any fantasy formats, defenses can stack the box against McCoy. McCoy will be overused, underperform and probably get hurt because of it. McCoy’s ADP is in the second round, but wouldn’t touch him until the fourth or beginning of the fifth round.

06/29/18, 12:42 PM CDT by C-wags


Tyreek Hill

Kansas City Chiefs

Hill lookin' busty with chiefs new look.

Tyreek Hill had a great 2017, amounting 75 receptions for 1183 yards and 7 touchdowns in 15 games. He’s currently being drafted in the middle of the third round in standard leagues, which would appear to be a great value. However, with promoted RB coach Eric Bieniemy presumably in-line to be the primary play caller, a new QB, Travis Kelce receiving the #1 target share and the addition of Sammy Watkins, I expect Hill’s numbers to decrease dramatically.
I believe Hill to be more of a boom or bust player this year. There’s no denying his break-away speed and ability to separate from defenders, and with Mahomes cannon of an arm, I expect them to connect deep on occasion. However, I believe Sammy Watkins to be the more complete receiver and likely to take more of the target share from Hill. Bundled with the change in offensive strategy toward the end of last year to run the ball more, the change to a young QB presumably resulting in a more conservative game plan, I see a major decline in the amount of touches Hill will get and see him as more of a 5-6 round flex play guy.

06/21/18, 10:54 AM CDT by C-wags


Eric Ebron

Detroit Lions

Ebron Could Use Some Luck

Colts signed TE Eric Ebron, formerly of the Lions, to a two-year contract. Coach Frank Reich called Ebron an "elite tight end."

The last time we saw Andrew Luck healthy (2016), the Colts used 2+ TE sets at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL and had the 6th-highest target share to TEs.

04/01/18, 11:32 AM CDT by Wheeler


Carlos Hyde

San Francisco 49ers

Hyde and Seek

Browns agreed to terms with RB Carlos Hyde, formerly of the 49ers, on a three-year, $15 million contract.

Obtaining Hyde has several trickle-down effects; first it replaces Crowell who signed with the Jets, it probably diminishes Duke Johnson’s value a bit. Hyde is a better all-around back than Crowell was and will certainly take over the goal-line work seeing that he’s got 20+ pounds on Duke. It also reduces the likelihood that Cleveland takes Saquon Barkley with the 4th pick in the draft. They will most likely look to draft a defensive player (Chubb) or trade down again.

04/01/18, 11:28 AM CDT by Wheeler


Jerick McKinnon

Minnesota Vikings

McKinnon Goes West For Gold-Rush

49ers agreed to terms with RB Jerick McKinnon, formerly of the Vikings, on a four-year, $30 million contract.

McKinnon averaged a ho-hum 3.8 yards a carry for the Vikings and scored three rushing touchdowns. By contrast, San Francisco's former lead runner, Carlos Hyde, averaged 3.9 yards an attempt in 2017 and had eight rushing touchdowns.

It appears as though Shanahan is enamored with McKinnon's athletic metrics, but I'm not so sure he was "pounding the table" to get him. This move could push the Niner's to cut Joe Williams.

04/01/18, 11:12 AM CDT by Wheeler


Mike Wallace

Baltimore Ravens

Eagles Keep Improving

Eagles signed WR Mike Wallace to a one-year contract.
Mike Wallace can still move posting a top five max speed among wide receivers last season. He will fill the void left by Torrey Smith as a speed vertical threat.

04/01/18, 11:08 AM CDT by Wheeler


Terrelle Pryor

Washington Redskins

Jets Searching For Weapons

Jets agreed to terms with WR Terrelle Pryor, formerly of Washington and Cleveland.

Second year in a row on a new team doesn’t really help Pryor's cause, but I like the idea of him on the field with Teddy Bridgewater at some point. I would imagine, with some creativity, the Jets could really design some innovative gadget plays.
The Jets receiving corps really looks like a bunch of question marks at this point though, no telling what the week-to-week outcome will be with these guys.
Jermaine Kearse: 65 catches, 810 yards, 5 touchdowns (2017)
Robby Anderson: 63 catches, 941 yards, 7 touchdowns (2017)
Quincy Enunwa: 58 catches, 857 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)
Terrelle Pryor: 77 catches, 1007 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)

04/01/18, 11:04 AM CDT by Wheeler


Carlos Henderson

Denver Broncos

Sleeper Watch

Broncos coach Vance Joseph said the team is "counting on" Carlos Henderson making an impact in 2018.

If you are paying attention to Staggs projections there is plenty of opportunity for Henderson to step into a solid number of targets in the slot. Henderson was hindered by injury and awful QB play last year. Being drafted in the 18th round or later in best-ball leagues, Henderson is the late round flyer that should be on your radar.

04/01/18, 11:00 AM CDT by Wheeler


Ben Watson

Baltimore Ravens

Watson Returns To Big Easy

Saints signed TE Ben Watson, formerly of the Ravens, to a one-year contract.

Watson had 74 catches on 110 targets for 825 yards and 6 TD’s when he was with the Saints in 2015. After missing 2016 he had a pretty good year with Baltimore last year despite an anemic offense, with 61 catches on 79 targets for 522 yards and 4 TD’s. He’s not a bad late round flyer TE. He’s basically free right now, but I expect by the time the season starts he’ll be being drafted within the top 20 at the position.

04/01/18, 10:54 AM CDT by Wheeler


Jeff Janis

Green Bay Packers

Janis Truthers Challenged

Browns officially signed former Packers’ WR Jeff Janis.
The combine superstar never amounted to anything in Green Bay, I highly doubt Cleveland is the place for him to finally break-out.

04/01/18, 10:50 AM CDT by Wheeler


Thomas Rawls

Seattle Seahawks

Jets Sign Rawls

Rawls had five RB1 games in 2015, one in 2016, and has been a disappointment since. He’s not worth your time in fantasy, but he could cause enough disruption in the Jets backfield to cut any upside we might have hoped for from Isaiah Crowell.

04/01/18, 10:48 AM CDT by Wheeler


Allen Robinson

Jacksonville Jaguars

Coo coo ca choo Mr. Robinson

Bears signed WR Allen Robinson, formerly of the Jaguars, to a three-year, $42 million contract.

This is a great move for Robinson and Chicago. Nagy’s offense and the young QB, Trubiski, should benefit Robinson at least as much as Bortles did, and Chicago gets the top WR in free agency.
Everyone on the team will be in a new scheme so there will be an adjustment, but as they start to gel we should see a big second half. Robinson’s recovery from a torn ACL doesn’t scare me away from drafting him in the late third/early fourth, his current MFL10 ADP is 43 overall while his Draft app ADP is 59.9. I expect Robinson to be somewhere in the range of 75 receptions, for 1100 yards and 8 TD’s.

03/24/18, 08:25 PM CDT by Wheeler


Sammy Watkins

Los Angeles Rams

KC Building Strong Air Attack

Chiefs signed Sammy Watkins, formerly of the Rams, to a three-year, $48 million contract.

I’m a big Sammy truther so getting him in the 5th or 6th round is a pure power move. His current Draft app ADP of 87.1 is an absolute steal, his MFL10 ADP of 69.5 is still a great value in my opinion. There are quite a few options for high targets in KC so I don’t expect him to see the 128 targets he saw his rookie year, but he should definitely see more than the 70 he saw last year. He’ll have an entire offseason to work with the near-rookie QB, and at age 25 he should have enough burst left to have a 70 catch, 1050 yd, 8TD line. For his career he has 16 receptions on 30 targets for 12 TD’s in the Red Zone, and 9 receptions on 13 targets, for 8 TD’s inside the opponents 10. He should be the exact WR the Chiefs need to get over the hump. As a team the Chiefs were 34/75 for 13 TD’s in the Red-Zone last year and 12/24 for 10 TD inside the 10.

03/24/18, 08:19 PM CDT by Wheeler


Kirk Cousins

Washington Redskins

Vikings Like That

Kirk Cousins plans to sign a three-year, fully-guaranteed contract from the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday. The deal is believed to be for around $86 million, and reports are it will be fully-guaranteed, a landmark for an NFL free agent.

Should be a lateral move for Kirk as far as fantasy, better WR’s, but fewer passes thrown in this offense. A healthy Dalvin Cook should be able to run out the clock if they are up in the second half of games and take the ball out of Cousins hands near the end zone. It should also help the overall efficiency of the offense so all in all it increases his floor, but cuts any garbage-time production we’ve seen with Washington. Kyle Rudolph becomes a big benefactor here, Cousins loves his TE, especially near the end-zone.

03/24/18, 08:16 PM CDT by Wheeler


Case Keenum

Minnesota Vikings

Denver Makes Case

Broncos signed QB Case Keenum, formerly of the Vikings, to a two-year, $36 million contract.

Well, I was hoping for more than a bridge QB for my favorite WR (D. Thomas), but this is a definite upgrade from the three stooges Denver put behind center last year.

03/24/18, 08:13 PM CDT by Wheeler


LeGarrette Blount

Philadelphia Eagles

Detroit Sparks Up Blount

The Lions signed free agent RB LeGarrette Blount to a 1-year deal worth $4.5M. He’s back with Matt Patricia, as the New England ties are strong.

The Lions have needed a true goal-line/power-back for years. I expect Blount to get between 150-200 touches and all the short-yardage carries. Detroit’s offense doesn’t really fit what Blount brings to the table, but I expect Patricia will have some influence over how the offense will operate from here-on-out.

03/24/18, 08:10 PM CDT by Wheeler


Cleveland Browns

Money Ball: The Sequel

Hate to start out the offseason with the Cleveland Browns, but they are makin’ moves!
Browns acquired: Tyrod Taylor, Jarvis Landry, Damarious Randall
Browns gave up: 2018 3rd-round pick (No. 65), 2018 4th-round pick, 2019 7th-round pick, DeShone Kizer

Building with experienced quality performers that have something to prove, by selling inconsequential draft picks is exactly what Sashi Brown was building up for. It’s a shame he won’t be around to reap the rewards, but these are quality moves for a win-now mentality.

03/09/18, 09:37 PM CST by Wheeler


Tyrod Taylor

Buffalo Bills

Hue Looks To TyGoat

Browns left tackle Joe Thomas, who's pondering his future, is a fan of Tyrod Taylor and has said so on the ThomaHawk Show podcast.

Tyrod is just one season removed (2016) from being the QB11 in average fantasy ppg, including seven 20+ point weeks and six 15+ point weeks. Given the current talent on the O-line and skill position weapons he could improve on those numbers. He has the potential to be this year’s Alex Smith, definitely heading my late-round (12+) QB picks now.

03/09/18, 09:32 PM CST by Wheeler


Deshone Kizer

Cleveland Browns

Packers Get In On The Fun

The Packers have traded for QB DeShone Kizer from the Browns to Green Bay.

This is the best possible scenario for Kizer, who was thrown into the fire last season. Getting the chance to develop and learn behind the best in the business is the best chance he has for longevity.

03/09/18, 09:30 PM CST by Wheeler


Torrey Smith

Philadelphia Eagles

On The Move Again

The Eagles trade WR Torrey Smith to the Panthers for CB Daryl Worley. Torrey Smith could fill the old Ted Ginn role which makes this fairly interesting. Stagg Party says it’s more of a boost for Cam than Torrey himself.

This is an absolute perfect fit, someone who isn’t going to demand the ball, but can take the top off a defense while McCaffrey, Olsen, and Cam work underneath. Torrey is looking like a great late-round flyer.

03/09/18, 09:28 PM CST by Wheeler


Julio Jones vs a banged up Bears defesnse sounds like a great time!

The Daily Dos & Don'ts - Week 1 DFS Advice (2017)

Posted by d-Rx on 09/09/17

by   The Archer


More Articals


Stagg Party's Week 1 DFS


Pillar: Amari Cooper – FanDuel - $7,600 / DraftKings - $7,200

This week, while everyone will be building his or her lineups around two stalwart running backs, I will play slightly different and run out some high priced receivers to provide a contrarian look. Cooper actually ranks as a borderline top-10 wide receiver depending on your preferred site, but has the upside for much more. While Cooper is more of a GPP play because of his high ceiling, Tennessee’s weak secondary also give him so cash game appeal. 25% of Amari Cooper’s 32 career games have gone for over 20 PPR fantasy points, and nine have gone for over 100 yards, so if there is a bonus system, he has a good likelihood to hit that mark. Amari’s price allows him to be one of the first players to lock in and still pay up at another spot should you wish. Tennessee allowed the most yards to opposing wide receivers and second most catches. With a bulked up physique and a dominant display this preseason, Cooper could get hot from the start.


Sleeper: Doug Baldwin – FanDuel - $7,500 / DraftKings - $6,700

Doug Baldwin is another receiver I will be spending a little more cash on while most will be forced to go dumpster diving if they go with the jamthemin strategy with Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson. Badlwin was in this same spot against the Packers last year, and disappointed despite many putting him in as a lineup lock. Disappointment in prime spots typically leads to lower ownership, but the way he was drafted this offseason leads me to believe he will be heavily owned as he is priced outside of the top ten receivers. Baldwin’s weekly volatility makes him more of a gpp play, but the tournament winning upside is there. Baldwin has played 36 games including the playoffs over the last two seasons, 33% of those have gone for over 20 points in PPR leagues. Baldwin’s price relative to his scoring upside gives him a slot in my rosters.


Low Cost Dart Throw: DeShone Kizer – FanDuel - $6,000 / Draftkings - $4,800 

Back to the well with cheap rookie quarterbacks who can run the rock to give you a nice floor. Let’s play a game, what does it take for DeShone Kizer to three X on FanDuel? So how can DeShone get to 18 fantasy points for you this week and give your roster some much needed savings. Let’s see he could throw for 275 yards one touchdown and no picks with 30 rushing yards. He could throw for 250 yards with two touchdowns an interception and ten yards rushing. Or he could have a Tyrod Taylor like game and pass for 200 yards throw one touchdown and rush for 40 yards. These are all well within his range of outcomes, while he isn’t a viable cash game play, for tournaments he can be used in a handful of lineups to add some diversity to your plays.


I’d Avoid: Ezekiel Elliott - FanDuel - $8,700 / Draftkings - $8,100

Ezekiel Elliott got his suspension stayed for at least one week, so many will flock to him. For those who may not have gotten a redraft share, they may try and play him in a game where he looks locked and loaded for a big workload should he be on hiatus for the next six weeks of the season depending on the results of the TRO hearing tomorrow.  The Giants were one of the best squads at bottling up Zeke last season. Holding him to 51 yards on 20 carries and a touchdown in game one and a catch on two targets for one yard in their first tilt. In the second, Elliott rushed 24 times for 107 yards and no scores and failed to catch any of his two targets. On the season, the Giants allowed the fifth fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs and possess some of the best run defenders in the league on their defensive line. While Zeke may possess a big workload this week, the overall score upside leaves him on the outside of my rosters looking in.




ØC's Week 1 DFS


Pillar: QB, Russell Wilson – FanDuel - $8,000 / DraftKings - $6,900

Wilson leads a powerful offense into Green Bay on Sunday with a chip on his shoulder. Russell was lambasted back in Week 14 of the 2016 regular season when he threw five interceptions in a 38-10 loss. I think he will come back with a vengeance and a healthy core of running backs to assist. Wilson had six games of 21 or more FF points last season and Packers were dreadful against fantasy QBs, allowing the second most (23.3) FF points per game to opposing passers. Wilson is locked and loaded as my Daily Pillar in a high scoring affair.

Sleeper: WR, Kelvin Benjamin – FanDuel - $6,500 / Draft Kings - $5,900

Kelvin Benjamin will lead the re-vamped Carolina Panthers into San Francisco and put on a show. The Niners were the fourth worst defense against opposing fantasy wide receivers in 2016, allowing 25.3 FF points per game to wide outs. Benjamin is a massive target and a staple in the red-zone when the Panthers dial up the pass. Kelvin collected 91 yards on six receptions while adding a TD in the first week last year and could easily surpass those numbers on Sunday. At less than $6,000, Kelvin will be a bargain in Week 1.


Low Cost Dart Throw: WR, Mohamed Sanu – FanDuel - $4,800 / DraftKings $4,200

The only way Chicago can come close to an upset in Week one against last year’s best offense is to stack the line and double cover Julio Jones. This will lead WR2, Mohamed Sanu open all day long. In the last three games daily fantasy production was tracked, Sanu posted 16.9, 14.4, and 13.2 FF points at the end of 2016. This included a touchdown in each of those games and I see no reason why he can’t continue to reach this production. Many of these scores were at home so the opening week road game may cause some challenges, plus Chicago has at worse an average secondary.


I'd Avoid: TE, Jordan Reed – FanDuel - $7,100 / DraftKings $5,900

Jordan Reed lives on the injury report, this time it’s a toe injury just a few weeks after he was activated from the PUP list. Combine Jordan’s durability with a first Week match-up against the second toughest defense against fantasy tight ends and you get a recipe for failure. Reed snagged a late touchdown in Week 17 last season but hasn’t been fantasy relevant since his two touchdown performance on Thanksgiving when he also left with a dislocated shoulder. There are many ends with cheaper price tags you can consider for better fantasy output.





d-Rx's Week 1 DFS


Pillar: Julio Jones - FanDuel - $9,000 / DraftKings - $8,500

This Bears defensive secondary is totally new after an offseason reboot. They were an above average unit last season against WRs for fantasy points against on FanDuel and DraftKings, but you can’t use those metrics for this season because it’s all new faces this time around. Prince Amukamara was going to be covering Julio Jones (gulp), but he’s out with an ankle injury. But truth be told, I think it’s less about what the Bears do or don’t have, and more about the demons that Ryan and Julio have to exorcise after their heartbreaking Super Bowl loss in February. If They put up a nice win and everyone puts up nice stats, people will stop looking in the rear-view mirror and focus on the Falcons for 2017, who should again put up the most fantasy points of any NFL offense. This will probably be the most expensive Julio will cost all season, but I’m going all in!


Sleeper: Tyrod Taylor - FanDuel - $7,500 / DraftKings - $6,200

Great matchup against the Jets here for Tygod. He comes at a reasonable price and should be ready to brush off the cob webs and get the post-Sammy era going fast and early. Hopefully, the cloudiness from the concussion is behind him and he starts off hot with his 2 new weapons at wideout in rookie Zay Jones (another guy I am playing at a value on my DFS teams, see stack below) and Jordan Matthews who was just traded from the Eagles. This is a litmus test for this Bills offense that I firmly believe they pass with flying colors. I’m digging the Bills offense on the ground and through the air this season.


Low Cost Dart Throw: Evan Engram - FanDuel - $4,900 / DraftKings - $2,900 

Even if Odell Beckham plays, he’s going to be 50% of himself. Marshall has been banged up as well. I think Engram is the one that you move up in this one, because the Cowboys aren’t good against TEs. Last season, they were second worst in giving up #FF points to tight ends in DraftKings at 17.3 fantasy points per game, and they ranked just as poorly in FanDuel allowing 13.6 points to the position. Evan is essentially a WR that is faster than a lot of the best WRs in the league (I’m looking at you Antonio Brown) and will be a matchup nightmare for the Cowboys linebackers. Watch McAdoo get his new shiny toy going early to set the tone for teams across the league that the Giants offense has a lot of weapons this time around. 


I'd Avoid: Ty Montgomery - FanDuel - $6,600 / DraftKings - $5,800

The Seahawks defense looks fired up this season, and they are a top 5 team at stopping RBs from scoring #FF points against them. I think Ty gets his ass handed to him this week and has owners that over-drafted him worried sick about how well he can hold up this season. With Ajayi out this week he’s a top 10 back in salary on DraftKings and 14th at RB in FD. No thanks, to rich for my blood.


Stack: Tyrod Taylor - FD - $7,500 / DK - $6,200 -&- Zay Jones - FD - $5,100 / DK - $3,500






Head-to-Head FanDuel Competition

 - Week 1 -


ØC (0-0) vs. d-Rx® (0-0)


ØÇ vs d-Rx Week 1 DFS Competition





FanDuel Points Allowed During the 2016 Regular Season

FanDuel Points Allowed During the 2016 Regular Season

DraftKings Points Allowed During the 2016 Regular Season

DraftKings Points Allowed During the 2016 NFL Season





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