Week 20
January 20, 2018
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Tom Brady

New England Patriots

Tom Still Terrific?


Tom Brady was first listed on the team's injury report with an Achilles injury heading in to Week 11.
Weeks 1-10: 21.2 fantasy points per game, 110.9 passer rating
Weeks 11-17: 14.2 fantasy points per game, 87.3 passer rating

Fantasy Goo: This should line up for a good week for Brady, Tennessee is 8th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, but just below average against QB’s. The Patriots are 13 point favorites on Saturday Night, if Brady doesn’t do it at home in prime-time then something is wrong.


01/09/18, 07:30 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alvin Kamara

New Orleans Saints

Primary Role Shifting


Saints have run 5 times at/inside opponent's 5-yard line over last 4 weeks (including playoffs):
Alvin Kamara 3 carries, Zach Line 1, Mark Ingram 1. Kamara was in on all 3 Saints run plays at/inside 5 vs. Panthers last week, including Line's 1-yard TD run.

Fantasy Goo: If you’re trying to decide between Kamara and Ingram for the playoff run, Kamara looks to be the much better play.


01/09/18, 07:20 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jay Ajayi

Philadelphia Eagles

It's A Trap


Jay Ajayi (knee) is practicing in full for the Divisional Round.

Fantasy Goo: Atlanta is 5th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s this year and they are more susceptible to pass-catching backs. Todd Gurley rushed 14 times for 101 yards in the Rams' Wild Card loss to the Falcons, adding four receptions for 10 additional yards. Ajayi might have been drafted before Gurley this year, but that was clearly a mistake. Ajayi has talent, but he’s far from a good option this week.


01/09/18, 07:16 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Chris Hogan

New England Patriots

Back in Action


Chris Hogan (shoulder) is expected to return for Saturday's Divisional Round game against the Titans.

Fantasy Goo: He’s going to take a couple of weeks to get in tune with the offense, I’m looking to save him until the Super Bowl if you’re in one of those one and done fantasy playoff tournaments.


01/09/18, 07:14 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Drew Brees

New Orleans Saints

Strength vs Strength


Saints RBs led NFL during regular season in receptions (9.0) and receiving yards (77.8) per game.
Vikings held opposing RBs to fewest yards per target (4.2) and 3rd-fewest yards per game (30.6).

Fantasy Goo: The Vikings have been absolutely sick in all aspects on defense this year. If the Saints are going to pull this one out it sounds like it’s going to have to be a Brees week, I’m not so sure he’s going to be the guy you want to start on the road this week.


01/09/18, 07:12 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


LeSean McCoy

Buffalo Bills

Not The Real McCoy


LeSean McCoy said if he plays Sunday, "I want to be able to cut well enough to where I don't have a lot of pain cutting. I just want to be close, or the best as far as 100 percent as I can get. The type of game like this, you got to lay it all on the line.”

Fantasy Goo: McCoy is a poor play against the Jags this week. The Jags strength on defense is against the pass (#1 in FP allowed), but they are still strong against the rush (11th). I’m not taking any Bills on fantasy playoff squads or in DFS this week.


01/04/18, 09:29 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Derrick Henry

Tennessee Titans

Arrow Pointing Down


DeMarco Murray (knee) didn't practice again Thursday. Derrick Henry show ready to go.

Fantasy Goo: The way to attack KC is through the air, they rank 9th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s. They will most likely be in negative game script. KC hasn’t allowed any team to score over 20 points in Arrowhead all year.


01/04/18, 09:27 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Julio Jones

Atlanta Falcons

No Fly Zone


Julio Jones finished 11th in NFL in red-zone targets but caught only 5 of 19. He finished 4th in targets inside 10 but only caught 4 of 11.

Fantasy Goo: The Rams have a strong pass defense, especially against outside receivers, but are second worst in fantasy points allowed to RB’s. Freeman and Coleman are the only Falcons I am considering this week.


01/04/18, 09:25 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Kenny Golladay

Detroit Lions

Under the Radar


In the first game with TJ Jones (shoulder) on IR last week, Kenny Golladay played 95% of snaps and led DET WRs with 8 targets.

Fantasy Goo: Marvin Jones has a history of shredding the Packers defense and is a solid play at $6500 on DK, but Golladay is half the price ($3300) and will probably see a similar number of targets. If Detroit had something to play for I’d be stacking the heck out of this game, but I still think it’s smart to have one of these guys in the line-up this week.


12/31/17, 09:46 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Patrick Mahomes

Kansas City Chiefs

Rookie Debut


Patrick Mahomes was 2nd in PFF’s QB Rating when kept clean in preseason. He rushed for 744 yards, 22 TDs in his last two years at Texas Tech. Denver has allowed multiple passing TDs to six-straight QBs not named Petty or Brissett.

Fantasy Goo: The rookie was supposed to take over for Alex Smith much earlier this season, but Smith and the Chief’s came out firing on all cylinders and kept the rookie on the bench. Mahomes will get his chance this week as Smith gets a week off before the playoffs. Denver may be packing it in, but they still have one of the best defenses and I expect they will play more inspired this week against a division rival.


12/31/17, 09:32 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Wayne Gallman

New York Giants

Last Man Standing


Giants will be without Shepard (neck), Engram (ribs), and King (concussion) vs. WAS. Wayne Gallman has 9, 7, 8 target counts in last three weeks.

Fantasy Goo: Washington ranks 24th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s and Gallman is $4200 on DK. Feels like a great way to save and pay up at other positions.


12/31/17, 09:21 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alex Collins

Baltimore Ravens

Burfict Situation


Bengals LB Vontaze Burfict ruled out for game Sunday at Baltimore because of shoulder injury.

Fantasy Goo: Collins becomes a solid RB1 this week. Cincinnati’s run defense is a sieve with Burfict out.


12/31/17, 09:19 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Akeem Hunt

Houston Texans

Akeem No Dream


Charcandrick West is out Sunday vs Denver with an illness. Akeem Hunt and Kareem Hunt only RBs on active roster for KC. It would be a surprise to see Kareem play much. That means a ton of Akeem Hunt and likely some De'Anthony Thomas on passing downs.

Fantasy Goo: Akeem is min price ($3000) on DK so the definition of a free-square, but there’s a reason he’s bounced around the NFL and never earned a starting role. Denver is 5th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, I’m not rostering Akeem when there are so many other options this week.


12/31/17, 09:17 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


DeAndre Hopkins

Houston Texans

Milestone Not Worth The Risk


Bill O'Brien on DeAndre Hopkins' status: 'Probably won't know up until game time'. Typically, we might classify this as coach-speak, but Hopkins has never missed a game, and is four catches away from 100 for the season. He's probably pushing hard to play.

Fantasy Goo: This is an awesome match-up for the Houston WR’s going against a very weak Indy pass defense, but there is really no reason for Hopkins to play, especially with the calf injury. At $8400 on DK he’s just way too pricey given this news. A sneaky start might be Will Fuller at $4300, he has 5 targets in each of the past three games and is coming off some difficult match-ups. Earlier in the season he was a superstar with Watson throwing the ball, but he has always had the big play in his arsenal no matter who the QB is.


12/29/17, 10:03 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Dion Lewis

New England Patriots

Vultures Are Always Flying


James White (ankle) remained limited at Thursday's practice. White was absent for last week's win over Buffalo but should be out there against the Jets in Week 17. He ranks eighth among running backs with 56 catches this year.

Fantasy Goo: Lewis dominated last week with White and Burkhead out, even though Gillislee vultured a TD. I would imagine that White playing will take away the five receptions Lewis had last week and the Jets actually have a better rush defense than the Pats week 16 opponent (Buf). The Pats will be looking to lock-up home field advantage and won’t be resting their starters, but they will probably be looking to get everyone some work as they prep for the playoffs. Gillislee appears to be nursing a hammy and is not expected to play, but let’s not forget how White performed last year in the Super Bowl.


12/29/17, 09:47 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

Pittsburgh Steelers

Stars Sitting


The Steelers Marcus Gilbert tells reporter Tim Benz that the Steelers won't play Ben Roethlisberger or Le'Veon Bell in finale vs. Cleveland. Landry Jones will be under center for Pittsburgh and Fitzgerald Toussaint and Stevan Ridley will form a thoroughly underwhelming RB committee against the Browns.

Fantasy Goo: Underwhelming is an understatement for these two backs, a highly respected fantasy website hasn’t even updated the news on these two since the pre-season and doesn’t even recognize them as being on the team. The one player of note in this is Martavis Bryant, The Alien averages over 17 ppr points per game with Landry at the helm as opposed to 8.4 ppg with other QB’s. He also has 5 TD’s in 5 home games with Landry. Granted most of this production comes from 2015 when they worked together often in the preseason, but Bryant could be a very sneaky GPP play this week.


12/29/17, 09:23 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Jacksonville Jaguars

Play To Win The Game


Despite already being locked into the AFC's No. 3 seed, Jaguars coach Doug Marrone has no plans to rest starters in Sunday's game against the Titans. "Make no mistake about it, just so there is not a lot of talk during the week: When the players come in (Wednesday), we are talking about how we are going to play to win and do everything we possibly can to win this game, period," Marrone said. "I am not even thinking about what happens beyond that, and that is the way we are going to go about our business this week."

Fantasy Goo: I think it’s crazy of him to do, but I’m sure he has Tom Coughlin in his ear feeding him that old-school philosophy. Looks like Bortles, Fournette, Westbrook and Cole will be safe plays against a Titan’s team hoping to hold on to the sixth seed in the AFC.


12/26/17, 10:00 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

Los Angeles Rams

Resting Starters


McVay hints that there will be Rams starters “who won’t play at all” on Sunday. The Rams are already locked into either the No. 3 or 4 seed in the NFC and will host a Wild Card round playoff game.

Fantasy Goo: Gurley, Goff, Woods, all sitting this week? That’s going to destroy so many hopes and dreams for teams that rode Gurley all year.


12/26/17, 09:58 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


DeMarco Murray

Tennessee Titans

Grind It Out


Mike Mularkey said he's not ruling DeMarco Murray out just yet. He's day-to-day. The Titans are holding out hope to have him in limited role.

Fantasy Goo: They are really grinding him into the dirt if they play him this week. I didn’t see the injury, but it sounded pretty ugly from sources in the know. Keep away from him in whatever format you are playing this week, I’m giving Derick Henry a solid upgrade as the Titans are trying to hold on to the final playoff spot in the AFC.


12/26/17, 05:17 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Philadelphia Eagles

All Locked Up


Pederson on playing Foles vs. Cowboys: “I’ve got to get him as many reps as he can and then be smart about it. Obviously, we have a lot of football left. Our season is really just beginning, quite honestly. We’ll be smart.”

Fantasy Goo: This is why you don’t play a championship game in week 17. I’m staying away from the Eagles regular starters, pretty much across the board, as they have a first round bye all locked up. Guys like Blount, Clement, and Nelson Agholor might have some DFS appeal, but we have to get closer to Sunday to see what they plan on doing.


12/26/17, 05:15 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Julio Jones vs a banged up Bears defesnse sounds like a great time!

The Daily Dos & Don'ts - Week 1 DFS Advice (2017)

Posted by d-Rx on 09/09/17

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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Stagg Party's Week 1 DFS

 

Pillar: Amari Cooper – FanDuel - $7,600 / DraftKings - $7,200

This week, while everyone will be building his or her lineups around two stalwart running backs, I will play slightly different and run out some high priced receivers to provide a contrarian look. Cooper actually ranks as a borderline top-10 wide receiver depending on your preferred site, but has the upside for much more. While Cooper is more of a GPP play because of his high ceiling, Tennessee’s weak secondary also give him so cash game appeal. 25% of Amari Cooper’s 32 career games have gone for over 20 PPR fantasy points, and nine have gone for over 100 yards, so if there is a bonus system, he has a good likelihood to hit that mark. Amari’s price allows him to be one of the first players to lock in and still pay up at another spot should you wish. Tennessee allowed the most yards to opposing wide receivers and second most catches. With a bulked up physique and a dominant display this preseason, Cooper could get hot from the start.

 

Sleeper: Doug Baldwin – FanDuel - $7,500 / DraftKings - $6,700

Doug Baldwin is another receiver I will be spending a little more cash on while most will be forced to go dumpster diving if they go with the jamthemin strategy with Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson. Badlwin was in this same spot against the Packers last year, and disappointed despite many putting him in as a lineup lock. Disappointment in prime spots typically leads to lower ownership, but the way he was drafted this offseason leads me to believe he will be heavily owned as he is priced outside of the top ten receivers. Baldwin’s weekly volatility makes him more of a gpp play, but the tournament winning upside is there. Baldwin has played 36 games including the playoffs over the last two seasons, 33% of those have gone for over 20 points in PPR leagues. Baldwin’s price relative to his scoring upside gives him a slot in my rosters.

 

Low Cost Dart Throw: DeShone Kizer – FanDuel - $6,000 / Draftkings - $4,800 

Back to the well with cheap rookie quarterbacks who can run the rock to give you a nice floor. Let’s play a game, what does it take for DeShone Kizer to three X on FanDuel? So how can DeShone get to 18 fantasy points for you this week and give your roster some much needed savings. Let’s see he could throw for 275 yards one touchdown and no picks with 30 rushing yards. He could throw for 250 yards with two touchdowns an interception and ten yards rushing. Or he could have a Tyrod Taylor like game and pass for 200 yards throw one touchdown and rush for 40 yards. These are all well within his range of outcomes, while he isn’t a viable cash game play, for tournaments he can be used in a handful of lineups to add some diversity to your plays.

  

I’d Avoid: Ezekiel Elliott - FanDuel - $8,700 / Draftkings - $8,100

Ezekiel Elliott got his suspension stayed for at least one week, so many will flock to him. For those who may not have gotten a redraft share, they may try and play him in a game where he looks locked and loaded for a big workload should he be on hiatus for the next six weeks of the season depending on the results of the TRO hearing tomorrow.  The Giants were one of the best squads at bottling up Zeke last season. Holding him to 51 yards on 20 carries and a touchdown in game one and a catch on two targets for one yard in their first tilt. In the second, Elliott rushed 24 times for 107 yards and no scores and failed to catch any of his two targets. On the season, the Giants allowed the fifth fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs and possess some of the best run defenders in the league on their defensive line. While Zeke may possess a big workload this week, the overall score upside leaves him on the outside of my rosters looking in.

 

 

 

ØC's Week 1 DFS

 

Pillar: QB, Russell Wilson – FanDuel - $8,000 / DraftKings - $6,900

Wilson leads a powerful offense into Green Bay on Sunday with a chip on his shoulder. Russell was lambasted back in Week 14 of the 2016 regular season when he threw five interceptions in a 38-10 loss. I think he will come back with a vengeance and a healthy core of running backs to assist. Wilson had six games of 21 or more FF points last season and Packers were dreadful against fantasy QBs, allowing the second most (23.3) FF points per game to opposing passers. Wilson is locked and loaded as my Daily Pillar in a high scoring affair.


Sleeper: WR, Kelvin Benjamin – FanDuel - $6,500 / Draft Kings - $5,900

Kelvin Benjamin will lead the re-vamped Carolina Panthers into San Francisco and put on a show. The Niners were the fourth worst defense against opposing fantasy wide receivers in 2016, allowing 25.3 FF points per game to wide outs. Benjamin is a massive target and a staple in the red-zone when the Panthers dial up the pass. Kelvin collected 91 yards on six receptions while adding a TD in the first week last year and could easily surpass those numbers on Sunday. At less than $6,000, Kelvin will be a bargain in Week 1.

 

Low Cost Dart Throw: WR, Mohamed Sanu – FanDuel - $4,800 / DraftKings $4,200

The only way Chicago can come close to an upset in Week one against last year’s best offense is to stack the line and double cover Julio Jones. This will lead WR2, Mohamed Sanu open all day long. In the last three games daily fantasy production was tracked, Sanu posted 16.9, 14.4, and 13.2 FF points at the end of 2016. This included a touchdown in each of those games and I see no reason why he can’t continue to reach this production. Many of these scores were at home so the opening week road game may cause some challenges, plus Chicago has at worse an average secondary.

 

I'd Avoid: TE, Jordan Reed – FanDuel - $7,100 / DraftKings $5,900

Jordan Reed lives on the injury report, this time it’s a toe injury just a few weeks after he was activated from the PUP list. Combine Jordan’s durability with a first Week match-up against the second toughest defense against fantasy tight ends and you get a recipe for failure. Reed snagged a late touchdown in Week 17 last season but hasn’t been fantasy relevant since his two touchdown performance on Thanksgiving when he also left with a dislocated shoulder. There are many ends with cheaper price tags you can consider for better fantasy output.

 

 

 

 

d-Rx's Week 1 DFS

 

Pillar: Julio Jones - FanDuel - $9,000 / DraftKings - $8,500

This Bears defensive secondary is totally new after an offseason reboot. They were an above average unit last season against WRs for fantasy points against on FanDuel and DraftKings, but you can’t use those metrics for this season because it’s all new faces this time around. Prince Amukamara was going to be covering Julio Jones (gulp), but he’s out with an ankle injury. But truth be told, I think it’s less about what the Bears do or don’t have, and more about the demons that Ryan and Julio have to exorcise after their heartbreaking Super Bowl loss in February. If They put up a nice win and everyone puts up nice stats, people will stop looking in the rear-view mirror and focus on the Falcons for 2017, who should again put up the most fantasy points of any NFL offense. This will probably be the most expensive Julio will cost all season, but I’m going all in!

  

Sleeper: Tyrod Taylor - FanDuel - $7,500 / DraftKings - $6,200

Great matchup against the Jets here for Tygod. He comes at a reasonable price and should be ready to brush off the cob webs and get the post-Sammy era going fast and early. Hopefully, the cloudiness from the concussion is behind him and he starts off hot with his 2 new weapons at wideout in rookie Zay Jones (another guy I am playing at a value on my DFS teams, see stack below) and Jordan Matthews who was just traded from the Eagles. This is a litmus test for this Bills offense that I firmly believe they pass with flying colors. I’m digging the Bills offense on the ground and through the air this season.

 

Low Cost Dart Throw: Evan Engram - FanDuel - $4,900 / DraftKings - $2,900 

Even if Odell Beckham plays, he’s going to be 50% of himself. Marshall has been banged up as well. I think Engram is the one that you move up in this one, because the Cowboys aren’t good against TEs. Last season, they were second worst in giving up #FF points to tight ends in DraftKings at 17.3 fantasy points per game, and they ranked just as poorly in FanDuel allowing 13.6 points to the position. Evan is essentially a WR that is faster than a lot of the best WRs in the league (I’m looking at you Antonio Brown) and will be a matchup nightmare for the Cowboys linebackers. Watch McAdoo get his new shiny toy going early to set the tone for teams across the league that the Giants offense has a lot of weapons this time around. 

  

I'd Avoid: Ty Montgomery - FanDuel - $6,600 / DraftKings - $5,800

The Seahawks defense looks fired up this season, and they are a top 5 team at stopping RBs from scoring #FF points against them. I think Ty gets his ass handed to him this week and has owners that over-drafted him worried sick about how well he can hold up this season. With Ajayi out this week he’s a top 10 back in salary on DraftKings and 14th at RB in FD. No thanks, to rich for my blood.

 

Stack: Tyrod Taylor - FD - $7,500 / DK - $6,200 -&- Zay Jones - FD - $5,100 / DK - $3,500

 

 

 

 

 

Head-to-Head FanDuel Competition

 - Week 1 -

 

ØC (0-0) vs. d-Rx® (0-0)

 


ØÇ vs d-Rx Week 1 DFS Competition

            

 

 

 

FanDuel Points Allowed During the 2016 Regular Season


FanDuel Points Allowed During the 2016 Regular Season




DraftKings Points Allowed During the 2016 Regular Season


DraftKings Points Allowed During the 2016 NFL Season


 

 

 

 

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