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August 17, 2018
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Cooper Kupp

Los Angeles Rams

Mr. Cooper's neighborhood


Cooper Kupp was 4th in the NFL last year in red-zone targets. Kupp and Goff have the most chemistry of all the receivers on the team as Goff targeted him more than anyone last year. Everyone is expecting Cooks to lead these receivers in points this year, but Kupp will be the receiver to own. Sammy Watkins had eight red-zone touchdowns last year. Cooks is not a red-zone target receiver, so Kupp should see more targets and could sneak into the WR2 with massive upside.


08/13/18, 09:39 PM CDT by C-wags

Source: pyromaniac.com


Jerick McKinnon

Minnesota Vikings

The Jet is set to take off!


Mckinnon has been a super divisive player this offseason. Especially after the first preseason game where he didn't amass many yards and the following day he injured himself in practice. I constantly hear people question his ability to carry the ball 200+ times or that he can’t run between the tackles, or he’s unproven in a lead role. This is all NONSENSE and you shouldn’t believe any of it. Shanahan had his pick of players that he could’ve signed instead of Mckinnon, including Dion Lewis, Carlos Hyde, or drafting a rookie. He chose Mckinnon cause he felt he fit his offensive system in the same way that Devante Freeman fit his scheme. The 49ers just signed Alfred Morris today as a safety net, but I’m taking all the Mckinnon I can this year. I see him carrying the ball 205car/950yds/6td while also amassing 60rec/500yds/5td making him an RB1 this year. Don't be scared, and steal him away from people that are.


08/13/18, 09:24 PM CDT by C-wags

Source: pyromaniac.com


Marquise Goodwin

San Francisco 49ers

Too good, too fast


Marquiae goodwin has been targeted like a number one in camp. With Pierre Garcon likely squaring off with one of the toughest schedules against number one DBs, Goodwin could break out even more than he did last year. I wouldn't put it past him to put up T.Y HIlton numbers this year. Pick him up in the 6th and 7th round and pile up the points.


08/13/18, 09:11 PM CDT by C-wags

Source: pyromaniac.com


Jay Ajayi

Philadelphia Eagles

Ready To Fly


In 2016 Ajayi racked up 1272 yards on 260 carries and 8 TD’s and finished as the RB11 in both standard and PPR scoring. Last year Miami ran him out of town when he struggled in an anemic offense. He was not heavily used when he got to Philly, but his touches did increase every week until the Superbowl. He was also hyper efficient gaining 5.8 yards per carry and 9.1 yards per reception. Despite the general perception Clements usage went down with Ajayi’s arrival, even with Smallwood going down with injury. The Eagles have the number 1 offensive line as graded by PFF, and 18 RB targets and 192 carries vacated. Ajayi is a safe pick in the fourth round and a steal in the fifth.


08/02/18, 06:08 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.nflmock.com


Jimmy Graham

Green Bay Packers

Split Wide, Back in Stride


He is coming off a season that produced only 57 receptions for 520 yards, his fewest since his rookie season. With that said, Graham remains a big-time weapon in the red zone. He led the league last year with 27 targets in the region, which led to 10 touchdowns. You can bet Rodgers and play-caller Mike McCarthy will be utilizing his skills early and often when knocking on the door of the end zone.
Look for McCarthy to use a variety of personnel groupings with his new tight end group and expect to see Graham split out wide as a receiver much more than as a traditional in-line tight end.

This goes right along with what I was saying on Pyro podcast 308. I expect Graham to be used as a wide receiver and not a tight end. When Graham was negotiating his contract in his last season in New Orleans he wanted to be paid on scale with wide receivers because he rarely lined-up as an in-line tight end. When Seattle paid him, he did whatever they asked, and they asked him to block more. He was out for five games that year, but averaged one less reception per game and only scored two TD’s, after having at least nine TD’s in the previous four years. Overall Graham saw about 25% fewer targets while in Seattle compared to New Orleans and his fantasy numbers reflect it. I see Green Bay using him more like he was used in New Orleans, and even though he has obviously lost a step or two I see him as the major replacement for the Jordy Nelson targets.


07/22/18, 01:41 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.packersnews.com


Aaron Jones

Green Bay Packers

Cream Rises To The Top


Jones’ 5.55 YPC on first- and second-down carries trailed only Alvin Kamara (6.24) for best in the league last year. Jamaal Williams averaged 3.80 YPC on first- and second-down in 2017.

He’s slid two rounds since the announcement of his two game suspension, he is a screaming value if you can get him in the ninth round. We already knew he was going to be competing in a crowded backfield so missing two games really shouldn’t be a big hit to his overall production. The likelihood of either of the other two backs taking over the role is slim, Jones should be able to carve out 10 touches a game when he gets back with fresh legs. They are all high risk for injuries so I’m hoping this added rest will help Jones in the long run.


07/21/18, 06:51 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Nelson Agholor

Philadelphia Eagles

Solidified Role


In 2017, Nelson Agholor had 62 recs, 768 yds, 9 TDs and 7 games of WR2 or better. There is no reason he wouldn't maintain this output, even with additions in the offense. Agholor had to carve out a role for himself and beat out incumbent Jordan Matthews. This year he'll be the main slot receiver and have an established role from the start.


07/21/18, 06:49 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Sterling Shepard

New York Giants

Buying The Slot Receiver in a Shurmur Offense


Sterling Shepard is currently 24 years old with a 124/1,414/10 career line, in two seasons. He finished 2017 as the WR42 in 11 games (WR22 in FP/G) with only a 13.9% target share. He finished 2016 as the WR36 as a rookie. He's currently being drafted as the WR42 in MFL10’s.

Shepard does see more targets (+2.7), get more receptions (+2.3), more yards (+28), and get about three more PPR points per game when Beckham is out. But he still averages over 11 PPR points per game when he is playing. Apparently Shepard is more open in the end-zone when Beckham is playing, as he averages three times as many TD’s when they are both playing.


07/21/18, 06:47 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Allen Hurns

Jacksonville Jaguars

Plenty of Targets in Dallas


He’s been hampered by injuries over the past couple of years, but when he has stayed healthy and gotten the targets he has been successful. His best season was in 2015, he had 105 Targets for 64 Receptions at 1031 Yards for 10 TDs, that’s 16.11 Yards Per Reception and a 61% Catch Rate coming from Blake Bortles. He finished as the WR14 in Standard Scoring and WR18 in PPR.

He's an amazing value in the 11th round of current best-ball drafts.


07/21/18, 06:41 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Eric Ebron

Detroit Lions

Second Team Breath's New Life Into TE


Outside Brady, Luck is the only other QB to support 2 TE's, both Fleener and Allen had 8 TD's with Luck. Frank Reich runs 2 TE sets very successfully - see: 2018 Eagles. TE1's for Coach Reich have never finished worse than 12th. Yes, Doyle would seem like the obvious choice after last season, but that was with Brissett who needed a quick dump off outlet. Luck isn't a check-down machine.

Eric Ebron has lined up "everywhere" in the Colts offense. And the new tight end already is beginning to feel at home in Indianapolis. Without a strong WR2, Ebron could see a large number of targets. The Colt's line-up in two TE sets more than any other team in the NFL.


07/21/18, 06:36 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Matt Breida

San Francisco 49ers

Filling Coleman Role


“One guy who stood out at Niners practice to me was RB Matt Breida. No one talks about him, but the dude is gonna get some run this year. Fast downhill player.”

This is just some more camp hype from a beat reporter, but if they don’t get another running back through trade or free-agency Brieda is going to see plenty of touches to pay off being picked in the 15th round of fantasy drafts. McKinnon has never had over 205 touches in a season, that leaves plenty of opportunity in a Shanahan offense.


07/21/18, 06:28 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


LeSean McCoy

Buffalo Bills

McCoy starring down 30 with uncertainty


LeSean McCoy, despite ending the year as the #7 fantasy running back in standard leagues was a slight disappointment for fantasy owners last year. McCoy played in all 16 regular season games, but only cracked 100 yards rushing 4 times, and averaged 4.0 yards per rush, which was 23rd in the NFL. That all happened with a formidable QB with a scrambling ability that defenses had to respect, presumably allowing McCoy some more room before tacklers ascended.
The Bills have the least sexy QB situation in the entire NFL in my opinion. With Tyrod Taylor at the helm for most of the season last year, the bills had the 31st passing offense. None of the QBs on the Bills roster are considered mobile and without a wide receiver on their roster worthy of drafting in any fantasy formats, defenses can stack the box against McCoy. McCoy will be overused, underperform and probably get hurt because of it. McCoy’s ADP is in the second round, but wouldn’t touch him until the fourth or beginning of the fifth round.


06/29/18, 12:42 PM CDT by C-wags

Source: pyromaniac.com


Tyreek Hill

Kansas City Chiefs

Hill lookin' busty with chiefs new look.


Tyreek Hill had a great 2017, amounting 75 receptions for 1183 yards and 7 touchdowns in 15 games. He’s currently being drafted in the middle of the third round in standard leagues, which would appear to be a great value. However, with promoted RB coach Eric Bieniemy presumably in-line to be the primary play caller, a new QB, Travis Kelce receiving the #1 target share and the addition of Sammy Watkins, I expect Hill’s numbers to decrease dramatically.
I believe Hill to be more of a boom or bust player this year. There’s no denying his break-away speed and ability to separate from defenders, and with Mahomes cannon of an arm, I expect them to connect deep on occasion. However, I believe Sammy Watkins to be the more complete receiver and likely to take more of the target share from Hill. Bundled with the change in offensive strategy toward the end of last year to run the ball more, the change to a young QB presumably resulting in a more conservative game plan, I see a major decline in the amount of touches Hill will get and see him as more of a 5-6 round flex play guy.


06/21/18, 10:54 AM CDT by C-wags

Source: pyromaniac.com


Eric Ebron

Detroit Lions

Ebron Could Use Some Luck


Colts signed TE Eric Ebron, formerly of the Lions, to a two-year contract. Coach Frank Reich called Ebron an "elite tight end."

The last time we saw Andrew Luck healthy (2016), the Colts used 2+ TE sets at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL and had the 6th-highest target share to TEs.


04/01/18, 11:32 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Carlos Hyde

San Francisco 49ers

Hyde and Seek


Browns agreed to terms with RB Carlos Hyde, formerly of the 49ers, on a three-year, $15 million contract.

Obtaining Hyde has several trickle-down effects; first it replaces Crowell who signed with the Jets, it probably diminishes Duke Johnson’s value a bit. Hyde is a better all-around back than Crowell was and will certainly take over the goal-line work seeing that he’s got 20+ pounds on Duke. It also reduces the likelihood that Cleveland takes Saquon Barkley with the 4th pick in the draft. They will most likely look to draft a defensive player (Chubb) or trade down again.


04/01/18, 11:28 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jerick McKinnon

Minnesota Vikings

McKinnon Goes West For Gold-Rush


49ers agreed to terms with RB Jerick McKinnon, formerly of the Vikings, on a four-year, $30 million contract.

McKinnon averaged a ho-hum 3.8 yards a carry for the Vikings and scored three rushing touchdowns. By contrast, San Francisco's former lead runner, Carlos Hyde, averaged 3.9 yards an attempt in 2017 and had eight rushing touchdowns.

It appears as though Shanahan is enamored with McKinnon's athletic metrics, but I'm not so sure he was "pounding the table" to get him. This move could push the Niner's to cut Joe Williams.


04/01/18, 11:12 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.sacbee.com


Mike Wallace

Baltimore Ravens

Eagles Keep Improving


Eagles signed WR Mike Wallace to a one-year contract.
Mike Wallace can still move posting a top five max speed among wide receivers last season. He will fill the void left by Torrey Smith as a speed vertical threat.


04/01/18, 11:08 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Terrelle Pryor

Washington Redskins

Jets Searching For Weapons


Jets agreed to terms with WR Terrelle Pryor, formerly of Washington and Cleveland.

Second year in a row on a new team doesn’t really help Pryor's cause, but I like the idea of him on the field with Teddy Bridgewater at some point. I would imagine, with some creativity, the Jets could really design some innovative gadget plays.
The Jets receiving corps really looks like a bunch of question marks at this point though, no telling what the week-to-week outcome will be with these guys.
Jermaine Kearse: 65 catches, 810 yards, 5 touchdowns (2017)
Robby Anderson: 63 catches, 941 yards, 7 touchdowns (2017)
Quincy Enunwa: 58 catches, 857 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)
Terrelle Pryor: 77 catches, 1007 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)


04/01/18, 11:04 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Carlos Henderson

Denver Broncos

Sleeper Watch


Broncos coach Vance Joseph said the team is "counting on" Carlos Henderson making an impact in 2018.

If you are paying attention to Staggs projections there is plenty of opportunity for Henderson to step into a solid number of targets in the slot. Henderson was hindered by injury and awful QB play last year. Being drafted in the 18th round or later in best-ball leagues, Henderson is the late round flyer that should be on your radar.


04/01/18, 11:00 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.denverpost.com


Ben Watson

Baltimore Ravens

Watson Returns To Big Easy


Saints signed TE Ben Watson, formerly of the Ravens, to a one-year contract.

Watson had 74 catches on 110 targets for 825 yards and 6 TD’s when he was with the Saints in 2015. After missing 2016 he had a pretty good year with Baltimore last year despite an anemic offense, with 61 catches on 79 targets for 522 yards and 4 TD’s. He’s not a bad late round flyer TE. He’s basically free right now, but I expect by the time the season starts he’ll be being drafted within the top 20 at the position.


04/01/18, 10:54 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

DFS Advice for FanDuel and DraftKings for the 2017 in Week 10

The Daily Dos & Don'ts - Week 10 DFS Advice (2017)

Posted by d-Rx on 11/11/17

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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Stagg Party's Week 10 DFS

 

Pillar: TE, Rob Gronkowski – FanDuel $8,100 / DraftKings $7,000

With Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, and Jimmy Graham off the main Sunday slates, I believe Gronk can be a major lineup differentiator as the next best options are arguably Evan Engram or Cameron Brate. Neither of those players have the upside of 100+ yards that Gronk does, and you can argue Brate’s an effective redzone weapon all you want, but he is no Gronk. Gronk also has the plus matchup against the Broncos who have struggled against tight ends this season, allowing the third most fantasy points to the position. Five different tight ends have gone over double-digit fantasy points against the Bronco’s in half PPR, but the best ones the Broncos have faced Witten, Engram, and Kelce scored a combined 60.2 fantasy points, that is an average of 20 fantasy points. With their corners having to pay attention to Brandin Cooks and Danny Amendola, Gronk should be able to work the middle of the field whenever he wants. 38% of the Broncos’ receiving yardage allowed this season have been against tight ends, the highest rate in the league, Gronk gonna Gronk. 

 

Sleepers: WR, Robby Anderson – FanDuel $6,500 / DraftKings $5,200

Robby Anderson has shown consistency and upside in his recent surge. Over the last five weeks, Robby is WR9 in half PPR scoring and showing a mix of redzone usage to go along with his big play ability. He is actually WR6 in half PPR over the last three weeks with a touchdown in each. He has also shown the ability to convert on more of his targets recently, catching 13 of his last 16 targets after sporting a low catch rate for most of his first two seasons in the league. Robby is an ascending target and now gets the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who are allowing the second most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. Against Speedy receivers, including guys like Deonte Thompson, the Bucs have trouble keeping these guys contained. The Bucs have allowed at least 1 receiver over double-digit fantasy points in half PPR every week this season and have allowed 14 in total through 8 games. Lock in Robby at a nice price to your lineups.

 

Low Cost Dart Throw: RB, Orleans Darkwa– FanDuel $5,300 / DraftKings $4,500

Orleans Darkwa just gets put in the best of all spots this week, you may recall some of this from Adrian Peterson’s write up last week. On the season, RBs are averaging 27.5 half PPR points against the 49ers this season, including 1,650 total yards in nine games. Over the last five weeks the 49ers have allowed 1,023 total yards to opposing running backs and six total touchdowns. Over the last three weeks the 49ers have allowed 495 rushing yards and 132 receiving yards with four total touchdowns. Darkwa played his most snaps last week, and has averaged 25 snaps over his last four games, while Wayne Gallman’s snaps have been reduced. Over the last five weeks, Darkwa is RB23 in half PPR points per game averaging 10.6 a week. Go full Darkwang Duck and start Orleans this week.

 

Fade: RB, LeSean McCoy – FanDuel $8,300 / Draftkings $8,300 

While LeSean McCoy has been a center piece of some good weeks in the last month, that game against the Jets just put the fear of god into me. While he may not be listed with an injury, his groin injury looks to be lingering and could reappear at any time, taking him off the field. Plus the Saints defense has been tough as of late, allowing the 11th fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs over the last five weeks. While McCoy does have some big upside, and the Saints aren’t world beaters against the run, the injury downside just scares me away from making him a stalwart of my lineups this week.

 

 

 

 

ØC's Week 10 DFS


Pillar: RB, Melvin Gordon – DraftKings $7,200 / FanDuel $7,600

Coming off a bye, the often injured Melvin Gordon will return to stud form against the 27th worst defense against fantasy running backs. The Jaguars also boast the top secondary in the league, which will lead to a higher volume of rushing attempts and receptions out of the back field. Gordon has big play ability, with the potential for 30 touches, mimicking LeVeon Bell’s productivity. Plus, Melvin is pretty cheap so what do you have to lose?

 


Sleeper: WR, DeSean Jackson – Draft Kings $4,900 / Fan Duel $6,300

The Buccaneers are on their last leg and desperate. Jameis Winston will not play at quarterback, Mike Evans is suspended, and Doug Martin is being cuckolded by both Jaquizz Rodgers and Peyton Barber. The only real constant…DeSean Jackson. This is the first time he will be the WR1 at home against a forgiving New York Jets secondary. Look for his typical six targets to balloon to 10-12 in a high scoring affair.

 

 

Dart Throw: WR, Danny Amendola – DraftKings $5,200 / FanDuel $5,300

The Patriots are traveling to Denver to face the often touted “no fly zone”, but recently the Broncos defensive backs haven’t even shown up. The Patriots love to kill you with 1000 cuts, meaning screens, short slants, out routes, etc especially to their quick running backs and short white receivers. Chris Hogan will not play this weekend with an injury, leaving Amendola to take all of the short yardage receiving opportunities.

 

 

Fade: RB, Todd Gurley – DraftKings $8,700 / FanDuel $9,600

Todd “the Bod Gurley” absolutely feasts on weak matchups. Averaging more than 24 FF points per game against rush defenses ranked 14th or worse. However, in his two games against tougher defensive units (Seattle and Jacksonville), Gurley averages only 8.25 FF points. His Week 10 opponent is Houston, which is ranked 9th against fantasy rushers. Fan Duel has Todd as the most expensive player of the week and it just isn’t worth the money given his history against stout defenses. 

 

 

Stack: 

QB, Tom Brady – Draft Kings $6,700 – Fan Duel $8,500

WR, Danny Amendola – Draft Kings $5,200 – Fan Duel $5,300

 

 

 

d-Rx® Week 10 DFS


Pillar: WR, A.J. Green - FanDuel $7,900 / DraftKings $7,700

A.J. Green is pissed and about to show the world that he’s not soft. He escaped a bullet by not being suspended for his altercation with Jalen Ramsey, no question there. But I think ROS, the ejection will be a good thing for AJ’s game play  as I expect him to be locked-in and targeted like crazy. Dalton has to be going #18’s way early and often for the remainder of the season. 

 

Sleeper: QB, Eli Manning - FanDuel $6,700 / DraftKings $5,100

I have more faith in Chicago’s favorite dessert Eli’s Cheesecake 9 games into the 2017 NFL season than Eli Manning at this point. The Niners make superheroes out of average men (4th worst in the league vs QBs so far this season). Eli’s days may be numbered as a starter, in all honesty. Anyway, it’s been a good run buddy - but this matchup is the one for the guy. If he can’t get it done in this game, he pretty much can’t get it done against anyone in my eyes.

 

Low Cost Dart Throw: WR, Martavis Bryant - FanDuel $5,100 / DraftKings $3,900

I feel like this game is going to be such a blowout for the Steelers, that they may go out of their way to make it be a make-up party for Martavis Bryant. This sets up defenses for future games throughout the remainder of the season, so teams understand the Steelers have a quiet beast they can unleash, while also making mends on a rough few weeks between the Steelers and their oft-troubled yet hyper-explosive wideout. The Alien is a force of nature, and I agree with him - JuJu’s got nothing on him. I like JuJu, but Martavis is a different breed when he gets going. There is a reason the Steelers didn’t trade him. They are going to need #10 to help if they are to win a championship this year. He’ll be heavily involved in the gameplay I figure.

 

Fade: WR, Keenan Allen - FanDuel $7,300 / DraftKings $4,500

Jacksonville’s defense is a juggernaut that you don’t want to mess with. The beautiful part about DFS is you can choose the guys you want and in this case don’t want based on the player’s matchup. This is not a good matchup for any of the Chargers receivers. Jags secondary is the best against WRs in not allowing fantasy points, they give up 15.8 per game, for a comparison the secondary that gives up the most points to wideouts is the Chiefs and they allow 34.2, almost 19 fantasy points more per game.

 

 

 

 

 

Head-to-Head FanDuel Competition

 - Week 10 -

 

ØC (5-4 | 1055.9 pts) vs. d-Rx® (4-5 | 959.76 pts)

 

ØC vs d-Rx head-to-head FanDuel Competition - week 10 

 

 

  

FanDuel Points Allowed - 2017

 

FanDuel Points Allowed chart thru 9 weeks 

 

 

 

 

DraftKings Points Allowed - 2017


DraftKings Points Allowed thru 9 weeks 

 

 

 

  

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