May 22, 2018


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Eric Ebron

Detroit Lions

Ebron Could Use Some Luck

Colts signed TE Eric Ebron, formerly of the Lions, to a two-year contract. Coach Frank Reich called Ebron an "elite tight end."

The last time we saw Andrew Luck healthy (2016), the Colts used 2+ TE sets at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL and had the 6th-highest target share to TEs.

04/01/18, 11:32 AM CDT by Wheeler


Carlos Hyde

San Francisco 49ers

Hyde and Seek

Browns agreed to terms with RB Carlos Hyde, formerly of the 49ers, on a three-year, $15 million contract.

Obtaining Hyde has several trickle-down effects; first it replaces Crowell who signed with the Jets, it probably diminishes Duke Johnson’s value a bit. Hyde is a better all-around back than Crowell was and will certainly take over the goal-line work seeing that he’s got 20+ pounds on Duke. It also reduces the likelihood that Cleveland takes Saquon Barkley with the 4th pick in the draft. They will most likely look to draft a defensive player (Chubb) or trade down again.

04/01/18, 11:28 AM CDT by Wheeler


Jerick McKinnon

Minnesota Vikings

McKinnon Goes West For Gold-Rush

49ers agreed to terms with RB Jerick McKinnon, formerly of the Vikings, on a four-year, $30 million contract.

McKinnon averaged a ho-hum 3.8 yards a carry for the Vikings and scored three rushing touchdowns. By contrast, San Francisco's former lead runner, Carlos Hyde, averaged 3.9 yards an attempt in 2017 and had eight rushing touchdowns.

It appears as though Shanahan is enamored with McKinnon's athletic metrics, but I'm not so sure he was "pounding the table" to get him. This move could push the Niner's to cut Joe Williams.

04/01/18, 11:12 AM CDT by Wheeler


Mike Wallace

Baltimore Ravens

Eagles Keep Improving

Eagles signed WR Mike Wallace to a one-year contract.
Mike Wallace can still move posting a top five max speed among wide receivers last season. He will fill the void left by Torrey Smith as a speed vertical threat.

04/01/18, 11:08 AM CDT by Wheeler


Terrelle Pryor

Washington Redskins

Jets Searching For Weapons

Jets agreed to terms with WR Terrelle Pryor, formerly of Washington and Cleveland.

Second year in a row on a new team doesn’t really help Pryor's cause, but I like the idea of him on the field with Teddy Bridgewater at some point. I would imagine, with some creativity, the Jets could really design some innovative gadget plays.
The Jets receiving corps really looks like a bunch of question marks at this point though, no telling what the week-to-week outcome will be with these guys.
Jermaine Kearse: 65 catches, 810 yards, 5 touchdowns (2017)
Robby Anderson: 63 catches, 941 yards, 7 touchdowns (2017)
Quincy Enunwa: 58 catches, 857 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)
Terrelle Pryor: 77 catches, 1007 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)

04/01/18, 11:04 AM CDT by Wheeler


Carlos Henderson

Denver Broncos

Sleeper Watch

Broncos coach Vance Joseph said the team is "counting on" Carlos Henderson making an impact in 2018.

If you are paying attention to Staggs projections there is plenty of opportunity for Henderson to step into a solid number of targets in the slot. Henderson was hindered by injury and awful QB play last year. Being drafted in the 18th round or later in best-ball leagues, Henderson is the late round flyer that should be on your radar.

04/01/18, 11:00 AM CDT by Wheeler


Ben Watson

Baltimore Ravens

Watson Returns To Big Easy

Saints signed TE Ben Watson, formerly of the Ravens, to a one-year contract.

Watson had 74 catches on 110 targets for 825 yards and 6 TD’s when he was with the Saints in 2015. After missing 2016 he had a pretty good year with Baltimore last year despite an anemic offense, with 61 catches on 79 targets for 522 yards and 4 TD’s. He’s not a bad late round flyer TE. He’s basically free right now, but I expect by the time the season starts he’ll be being drafted within the top 20 at the position.

04/01/18, 10:54 AM CDT by Wheeler


Jeff Janis

Green Bay Packers

Janis Truthers Challenged

Browns officially signed former Packers’ WR Jeff Janis.
The combine superstar never amounted to anything in Green Bay, I highly doubt Cleveland is the place for him to finally break-out.

04/01/18, 10:50 AM CDT by Wheeler


Thomas Rawls

Seattle Seahawks

Jets Sign Rawls

Rawls had five RB1 games in 2015, one in 2016, and has been a disappointment since. He’s not worth your time in fantasy, but he could cause enough disruption in the Jets backfield to cut any upside we might have hoped for from Isaiah Crowell.

04/01/18, 10:48 AM CDT by Wheeler


Allen Robinson

Jacksonville Jaguars

Coo coo ca choo Mr. Robinson

Bears signed WR Allen Robinson, formerly of the Jaguars, to a three-year, $42 million contract.

This is a great move for Robinson and Chicago. Nagy’s offense and the young QB, Trubiski, should benefit Robinson at least as much as Bortles did, and Chicago gets the top WR in free agency.
Everyone on the team will be in a new scheme so there will be an adjustment, but as they start to gel we should see a big second half. Robinson’s recovery from a torn ACL doesn’t scare me away from drafting him in the late third/early fourth, his current MFL10 ADP is 43 overall while his Draft app ADP is 59.9. I expect Robinson to be somewhere in the range of 75 receptions, for 1100 yards and 8 TD’s.

03/24/18, 08:25 PM CDT by Wheeler


Sammy Watkins

Los Angeles Rams

KC Building Strong Air Attack

Chiefs signed Sammy Watkins, formerly of the Rams, to a three-year, $48 million contract.

I’m a big Sammy truther so getting him in the 5th or 6th round is a pure power move. His current Draft app ADP of 87.1 is an absolute steal, his MFL10 ADP of 69.5 is still a great value in my opinion. There are quite a few options for high targets in KC so I don’t expect him to see the 128 targets he saw his rookie year, but he should definitely see more than the 70 he saw last year. He’ll have an entire offseason to work with the near-rookie QB, and at age 25 he should have enough burst left to have a 70 catch, 1050 yd, 8TD line. For his career he has 16 receptions on 30 targets for 12 TD’s in the Red Zone, and 9 receptions on 13 targets, for 8 TD’s inside the opponents 10. He should be the exact WR the Chiefs need to get over the hump. As a team the Chiefs were 34/75 for 13 TD’s in the Red-Zone last year and 12/24 for 10 TD inside the 10.

03/24/18, 08:19 PM CDT by Wheeler


Kirk Cousins

Washington Redskins

Vikings Like That

Kirk Cousins plans to sign a three-year, fully-guaranteed contract from the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday. The deal is believed to be for around $86 million, and reports are it will be fully-guaranteed, a landmark for an NFL free agent.

Should be a lateral move for Kirk as far as fantasy, better WR’s, but fewer passes thrown in this offense. A healthy Dalvin Cook should be able to run out the clock if they are up in the second half of games and take the ball out of Cousins hands near the end zone. It should also help the overall efficiency of the offense so all in all it increases his floor, but cuts any garbage-time production we’ve seen with Washington. Kyle Rudolph becomes a big benefactor here, Cousins loves his TE, especially near the end-zone.

03/24/18, 08:16 PM CDT by Wheeler


Case Keenum

Minnesota Vikings

Denver Makes Case

Broncos signed QB Case Keenum, formerly of the Vikings, to a two-year, $36 million contract.

Well, I was hoping for more than a bridge QB for my favorite WR (D. Thomas), but this is a definite upgrade from the three stooges Denver put behind center last year.

03/24/18, 08:13 PM CDT by Wheeler


LeGarrette Blount

Philadelphia Eagles

Detroit Sparks Up Blount

The Lions signed free agent RB LeGarrette Blount to a 1-year deal worth $4.5M. He’s back with Matt Patricia, as the New England ties are strong.

The Lions have needed a true goal-line/power-back for years. I expect Blount to get between 150-200 touches and all the short-yardage carries. Detroit’s offense doesn’t really fit what Blount brings to the table, but I expect Patricia will have some influence over how the offense will operate from here-on-out.

03/24/18, 08:10 PM CDT by Wheeler


Cleveland Browns

Money Ball: The Sequel

Hate to start out the offseason with the Cleveland Browns, but they are makin’ moves!
Browns acquired: Tyrod Taylor, Jarvis Landry, Damarious Randall
Browns gave up: 2018 3rd-round pick (No. 65), 2018 4th-round pick, 2019 7th-round pick, DeShone Kizer

Building with experienced quality performers that have something to prove, by selling inconsequential draft picks is exactly what Sashi Brown was building up for. It’s a shame he won’t be around to reap the rewards, but these are quality moves for a win-now mentality.

03/09/18, 09:37 PM CST by Wheeler


Tyrod Taylor

Buffalo Bills

Hue Looks To TyGoat

Browns left tackle Joe Thomas, who's pondering his future, is a fan of Tyrod Taylor and has said so on the ThomaHawk Show podcast.

Tyrod is just one season removed (2016) from being the QB11 in average fantasy ppg, including seven 20+ point weeks and six 15+ point weeks. Given the current talent on the O-line and skill position weapons he could improve on those numbers. He has the potential to be this year’s Alex Smith, definitely heading my late-round (12+) QB picks now.

03/09/18, 09:32 PM CST by Wheeler


Deshone Kizer

Cleveland Browns

Packers Get In On The Fun

The Packers have traded for QB DeShone Kizer from the Browns to Green Bay.

This is the best possible scenario for Kizer, who was thrown into the fire last season. Getting the chance to develop and learn behind the best in the business is the best chance he has for longevity.

03/09/18, 09:30 PM CST by Wheeler


Torrey Smith

Philadelphia Eagles

On The Move Again

The Eagles trade WR Torrey Smith to the Panthers for CB Daryl Worley. Torrey Smith could fill the old Ted Ginn role which makes this fairly interesting. Stagg Party says it’s more of a boost for Cam than Torrey himself.

This is an absolute perfect fit, someone who isn’t going to demand the ball, but can take the top off a defense while McCaffrey, Olsen, and Cam work underneath. Torrey is looking like a great late-round flyer.

03/09/18, 09:28 PM CST by Wheeler


DeMarco Murray

Tennessee Titans

Henry Hype Train Has Clear Track

DeMarco Murray was released by the Titans.
No surprise here, expect Derick Henry to be a lead back with 250+ touches, but they will bring in someone that will play the third-down, pass-catching role out of the backfield. I wouldn’t be surprised if they sign someone like Jerick McKinnon or Rex Burkhead, or even Darren Sproles or Charles Sims. There are also plenty of options in the NFL draft, Henry won’t be a true “Bell Cow.”

03/09/18, 09:17 PM CST by Wheeler


Marquise Goodwin

San Francisco 49ers

The Name Says It All

Marquise Goodwin and the 49ers have agreed to a 3yr extension worth $20.3M & 10M guaranteed.

Shanahan has found his big-play threat at a reasonable price. Goodwin caught 56 balls for 962 yards last season, but only had two TD’s. None of his six longest plays (33+ yards) were from Garoppollo so it leads me to believe they will still be looking for a top of the line WR, even with Garcon coming back from injury.

03/09/18, 09:15 PM CST by Wheeler


Lamar Miller is the DFS cover player for this week's DFS piece

The Daily Dos & Don'ts - Week 12 DFS Advice (2016)

Posted by d-Rx on 11/26/16

by   The Archer


More Articals


Stagg Party's Week 12 DFS Picks


Pillar: David Johnson - DraftKings - $8,900 / FanDuel - $9,500   [ARI@ATL]

David Johnson has been a lock for much of the season. He literally posses an 18-point floor weekly in PPR purposes because of his involvement in the passing game, the redzone, and even running it between the twenties with nearly no competition. DJ has finished with over 100 scrimmage yards in every game this season. Johnson has scored multiple touchdowns in half of his games this season and has a ceiling as high as anyone on the main slate. Especially with Ezekiel Elliott and Le’Veon Bell off the board with their thanksgiving matchups. Lock in David Johnson into your lineups and expect a big game against the Atlanta Falcons who have given up 50% more fantasy points to opposing running backs then the average team over the last three weeks.


Mid Priced Core Piece: Lamar Miller - DraftKings - $5,800 / FanDuel - $7,100 [SD@HOU]

Lamar Miller looked fully healthy on Monday Night on his way to a big night. Miller rushed for 100 yards for the third time this seasonseason, and scored his third rushing touchdown of the season to help cap off a top-12 week. Miller played over 75% of the snaps and looks healthy and primed for a stretch run. San Diego is allowing the 5th most fantasy points to opposing running backs and have allowed 12 rushing touchdowns. The Chargers have yet to give up a 100-yard rusher this season, but give it up in the passing game to running backs as well which is something Lamar Miller has shown the ability to do. At his price, Lamar Miller is an interesting alternative to Rashad Jennings who is sure to be more highly owned.


Low Cost Dart Throw: Will Tye - DraftKings - $3,000 / FanDuel - $4,600 [NYG@CLE]

Will Tye is coming off his first touchdown of the season. Tye is also not being bothered by Larry Donnell any longer who has been a healthy scratch in the Giants last two weeks. Tye has 20 targets over the last three weeks and showed down the stretch last season that he can be a viable fantasy option. But the real reason you are starting Tye is his low price and the great matchup against the Browns. The Browns are allowing 10 more receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends then any teams in the league. The Browns are also tied for allowing the most touchdowns to opposing tight ends on the season. Tye is an interesting streaming option this week in redraft and low cost option in DFS.


Fade: Mike Evans - DraftKings - $7,500 / FanDuel - $7,900   [SEA@TB]

Mike Evans is the number one wide receiver over the last three weeks, and is the most heavily targeted receiver in the league. But Seattle is a tough matchup for opposing wide receivers, even though they go into the game more banged up in the secondary than at any point this season. Sherman has shadowed some receivers this season, and if there is ever a week for him to do so again though it is this week. At his price point, there are just many other players I would rather play this week.


Stack of the Week: Russell Wilson and Doug Baldwin [SEA@TB]


PyromaniacMo’s Week 12 DFS Picks


Pillar: Jay Ajayi - DraftKings - $7,600 / FanDuel - $8,400 [SF@MIA]

Vegas opened this up with an implied point total for Miami at 27, which is on the higher end this week. Not only that, being that they are favored by more than a TD, you expect them to chew the clock and lean on the ground game against the 49’ers who are allowing a league high 5.2 yards per carry. Home games are always a big plus. Considering they are facing the league’s softest run D, and Miami themselves are gaining 4.8 ypc as a team, a number that currently stands as second highest in the NFL. The 49’ers are allowing the most FF Points per game to opposing RBs. In fact, this defense has allowed a 100 yard rusher in all but two games thus far. Finally, thanks to recency bias, Ajayi might be a bit lower owned this week. It is a fantastic matchup, but after 3 weeks of dominance, he has put up just over 20 FF Points in the last two weeks combined.



Mid Priced Core Piece: Michael Thomas - DraftKings - $6,600 / FanDuel - $6,400 [LA@NO]

Drew Brees is averaging 366 yards at home and exactly 3 TDs per game. He is not the only Saint that enjoys the Big Easy, as MT himself has an 82% catch rate when playing in Louisiana, it drops a whopping 12 percentage point on the road. New Orleans is expected to roll again as they opened with a 26.25 implied team total. LA, while tough against the rush, invites teams to pass. Thomas will enjoy the softest CB matchup in this game as EJ Gaines will face off against him on most plays. Pro Football Focus currently has grades on 119 cornerbacks, Mr. Gaines comes in at number 115. It should come as no surprise that Gaines is the most picked on of the LA corners. If you add the fact that Gaines also gives up the most FF Points per route run, this should be a great game for Thomas.



Low Cost Dart Throw: Kendall Wright- DraftKings - $4,000 / FanDuel - $4,500 [TEN@CHI]

In the last five weeks, no other defense has given up more PPR points per game to the opposition than the Chicago Bears. In that span, 6 WRs have scored, the vast majority of them from the slot. The fault lies with their slot corner, Cre’von LeBlanc. Considering the Bears are starting Barkley, who in his only start so far this year completed just 40% of his passes for 2 INTS and a total of 81 yards, chances are fairly good that the Titans will have more offensive drives per game than normal. This will allow Mariota to work his magic and pick on the Bears liability at corner, one Mr. Le’Blanc. At a week when you will want to spend up at the cornerback position, low end guys like Kendall Wright will come in handy.


Since I believe you want to collect a few low-cost WRs, here’s a bonus guy: Braxton Miller. He is the price minimum for a WR on both Fan Duel and Draft Kings. So, yes, he does have Brock tossing him the ball, but last week, Miller collected 7 targets and scored a TD. Will Fuller has not seen 7 targets since Week 7. Plus, Brock should have more time in the pocket considering 4 of San Diego’s 9 defensive linemen are on IR.  The lack of depth is one contributing factor to the sluggish play of the Chargers D-line. Football Outsiders only scores 2 team defenses with a lower adjusted sack rate that San Diego. Finally, Braxton will square off against Trevor Williams. He is getting straight picked on by opposing passers and for good reason. In fact, he is targeted on 32% of all passes, no other starting CB in the entire NFL gets thrown at as much.



Fade:  Jeremy Hill - DraftKings - $3,900 / FanDuel - $5,900 [CIN@BAL]

This is a tough one. Now, when I say fade, I may still have him in a lineup, but I play mulitiple. The fact is, this is a starting RB, that is expected to get the bulk of the carriers what with Gio out. For his going price, on Draft Kings especially, that is hard to ignore. But I am certainly going to be under weight on him. He goes against the league’s best rush defense. They held Ezekiel Elliott, arguably the league’s most impressive running back, to less than four yards a carry. But, while I am going to be under weight, on most of my plays, I want to leverage his high ownership. I believe a lot of people will be on him for the reasons I just stated. If Baltimore plays as they have been, and let’s face it, Hill is no Zeke, many owners will struggle to meet 2X. Baltimore is the only team in the league to allow fewer than 80 rushing yards per game to opponents. On Draft Kings, they are giving up the 2nd fewest points to the position. Baltimore is a funnel, D, that is precisely how I think they will spend most of their possessions.



Stack of the Week:   Titans Defense &  DeMarco Murray





FanDuel Points Allowed Thru 11 Weeks

FanDuel Points Allowed Thru 11 Weeks

DraftKings Points Allowed Thru 11 Weeks

DraftKings Points Allowed Thru 11 Weeks


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