Week 20
January 20, 2018
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Tom Brady

New England Patriots

Tom Still Terrific?


Tom Brady was first listed on the team's injury report with an Achilles injury heading in to Week 11.
Weeks 1-10: 21.2 fantasy points per game, 110.9 passer rating
Weeks 11-17: 14.2 fantasy points per game, 87.3 passer rating

Fantasy Goo: This should line up for a good week for Brady, Tennessee is 8th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, but just below average against QB’s. The Patriots are 13 point favorites on Saturday Night, if Brady doesn’t do it at home in prime-time then something is wrong.


01/09/18, 07:30 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alvin Kamara

New Orleans Saints

Primary Role Shifting


Saints have run 5 times at/inside opponent's 5-yard line over last 4 weeks (including playoffs):
Alvin Kamara 3 carries, Zach Line 1, Mark Ingram 1. Kamara was in on all 3 Saints run plays at/inside 5 vs. Panthers last week, including Line's 1-yard TD run.

Fantasy Goo: If you’re trying to decide between Kamara and Ingram for the playoff run, Kamara looks to be the much better play.


01/09/18, 07:20 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jay Ajayi

Philadelphia Eagles

It's A Trap


Jay Ajayi (knee) is practicing in full for the Divisional Round.

Fantasy Goo: Atlanta is 5th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s this year and they are more susceptible to pass-catching backs. Todd Gurley rushed 14 times for 101 yards in the Rams' Wild Card loss to the Falcons, adding four receptions for 10 additional yards. Ajayi might have been drafted before Gurley this year, but that was clearly a mistake. Ajayi has talent, but he’s far from a good option this week.


01/09/18, 07:16 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Chris Hogan

New England Patriots

Back in Action


Chris Hogan (shoulder) is expected to return for Saturday's Divisional Round game against the Titans.

Fantasy Goo: He’s going to take a couple of weeks to get in tune with the offense, I’m looking to save him until the Super Bowl if you’re in one of those one and done fantasy playoff tournaments.


01/09/18, 07:14 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Drew Brees

New Orleans Saints

Strength vs Strength


Saints RBs led NFL during regular season in receptions (9.0) and receiving yards (77.8) per game.
Vikings held opposing RBs to fewest yards per target (4.2) and 3rd-fewest yards per game (30.6).

Fantasy Goo: The Vikings have been absolutely sick in all aspects on defense this year. If the Saints are going to pull this one out it sounds like it’s going to have to be a Brees week, I’m not so sure he’s going to be the guy you want to start on the road this week.


01/09/18, 07:12 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


LeSean McCoy

Buffalo Bills

Not The Real McCoy


LeSean McCoy said if he plays Sunday, "I want to be able to cut well enough to where I don't have a lot of pain cutting. I just want to be close, or the best as far as 100 percent as I can get. The type of game like this, you got to lay it all on the line.”

Fantasy Goo: McCoy is a poor play against the Jags this week. The Jags strength on defense is against the pass (#1 in FP allowed), but they are still strong against the rush (11th). I’m not taking any Bills on fantasy playoff squads or in DFS this week.


01/04/18, 09:29 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Derrick Henry

Tennessee Titans

Arrow Pointing Down


DeMarco Murray (knee) didn't practice again Thursday. Derrick Henry show ready to go.

Fantasy Goo: The way to attack KC is through the air, they rank 9th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s. They will most likely be in negative game script. KC hasn’t allowed any team to score over 20 points in Arrowhead all year.


01/04/18, 09:27 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Julio Jones

Atlanta Falcons

No Fly Zone


Julio Jones finished 11th in NFL in red-zone targets but caught only 5 of 19. He finished 4th in targets inside 10 but only caught 4 of 11.

Fantasy Goo: The Rams have a strong pass defense, especially against outside receivers, but are second worst in fantasy points allowed to RB’s. Freeman and Coleman are the only Falcons I am considering this week.


01/04/18, 09:25 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Kenny Golladay

Detroit Lions

Under the Radar


In the first game with TJ Jones (shoulder) on IR last week, Kenny Golladay played 95% of snaps and led DET WRs with 8 targets.

Fantasy Goo: Marvin Jones has a history of shredding the Packers defense and is a solid play at $6500 on DK, but Golladay is half the price ($3300) and will probably see a similar number of targets. If Detroit had something to play for I’d be stacking the heck out of this game, but I still think it’s smart to have one of these guys in the line-up this week.


12/31/17, 09:46 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Patrick Mahomes

Kansas City Chiefs

Rookie Debut


Patrick Mahomes was 2nd in PFF’s QB Rating when kept clean in preseason. He rushed for 744 yards, 22 TDs in his last two years at Texas Tech. Denver has allowed multiple passing TDs to six-straight QBs not named Petty or Brissett.

Fantasy Goo: The rookie was supposed to take over for Alex Smith much earlier this season, but Smith and the Chief’s came out firing on all cylinders and kept the rookie on the bench. Mahomes will get his chance this week as Smith gets a week off before the playoffs. Denver may be packing it in, but they still have one of the best defenses and I expect they will play more inspired this week against a division rival.


12/31/17, 09:32 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Wayne Gallman

New York Giants

Last Man Standing


Giants will be without Shepard (neck), Engram (ribs), and King (concussion) vs. WAS. Wayne Gallman has 9, 7, 8 target counts in last three weeks.

Fantasy Goo: Washington ranks 24th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s and Gallman is $4200 on DK. Feels like a great way to save and pay up at other positions.


12/31/17, 09:21 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alex Collins

Baltimore Ravens

Burfict Situation


Bengals LB Vontaze Burfict ruled out for game Sunday at Baltimore because of shoulder injury.

Fantasy Goo: Collins becomes a solid RB1 this week. Cincinnati’s run defense is a sieve with Burfict out.


12/31/17, 09:19 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Akeem Hunt

Houston Texans

Akeem No Dream


Charcandrick West is out Sunday vs Denver with an illness. Akeem Hunt and Kareem Hunt only RBs on active roster for KC. It would be a surprise to see Kareem play much. That means a ton of Akeem Hunt and likely some De'Anthony Thomas on passing downs.

Fantasy Goo: Akeem is min price ($3000) on DK so the definition of a free-square, but there’s a reason he’s bounced around the NFL and never earned a starting role. Denver is 5th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, I’m not rostering Akeem when there are so many other options this week.


12/31/17, 09:17 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


DeAndre Hopkins

Houston Texans

Milestone Not Worth The Risk


Bill O'Brien on DeAndre Hopkins' status: 'Probably won't know up until game time'. Typically, we might classify this as coach-speak, but Hopkins has never missed a game, and is four catches away from 100 for the season. He's probably pushing hard to play.

Fantasy Goo: This is an awesome match-up for the Houston WR’s going against a very weak Indy pass defense, but there is really no reason for Hopkins to play, especially with the calf injury. At $8400 on DK he’s just way too pricey given this news. A sneaky start might be Will Fuller at $4300, he has 5 targets in each of the past three games and is coming off some difficult match-ups. Earlier in the season he was a superstar with Watson throwing the ball, but he has always had the big play in his arsenal no matter who the QB is.


12/29/17, 10:03 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Dion Lewis

New England Patriots

Vultures Are Always Flying


James White (ankle) remained limited at Thursday's practice. White was absent for last week's win over Buffalo but should be out there against the Jets in Week 17. He ranks eighth among running backs with 56 catches this year.

Fantasy Goo: Lewis dominated last week with White and Burkhead out, even though Gillislee vultured a TD. I would imagine that White playing will take away the five receptions Lewis had last week and the Jets actually have a better rush defense than the Pats week 16 opponent (Buf). The Pats will be looking to lock-up home field advantage and won’t be resting their starters, but they will probably be looking to get everyone some work as they prep for the playoffs. Gillislee appears to be nursing a hammy and is not expected to play, but let’s not forget how White performed last year in the Super Bowl.


12/29/17, 09:47 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

Pittsburgh Steelers

Stars Sitting


The Steelers Marcus Gilbert tells reporter Tim Benz that the Steelers won't play Ben Roethlisberger or Le'Veon Bell in finale vs. Cleveland. Landry Jones will be under center for Pittsburgh and Fitzgerald Toussaint and Stevan Ridley will form a thoroughly underwhelming RB committee against the Browns.

Fantasy Goo: Underwhelming is an understatement for these two backs, a highly respected fantasy website hasn’t even updated the news on these two since the pre-season and doesn’t even recognize them as being on the team. The one player of note in this is Martavis Bryant, The Alien averages over 17 ppr points per game with Landry at the helm as opposed to 8.4 ppg with other QB’s. He also has 5 TD’s in 5 home games with Landry. Granted most of this production comes from 2015 when they worked together often in the preseason, but Bryant could be a very sneaky GPP play this week.


12/29/17, 09:23 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Jacksonville Jaguars

Play To Win The Game


Despite already being locked into the AFC's No. 3 seed, Jaguars coach Doug Marrone has no plans to rest starters in Sunday's game against the Titans. "Make no mistake about it, just so there is not a lot of talk during the week: When the players come in (Wednesday), we are talking about how we are going to play to win and do everything we possibly can to win this game, period," Marrone said. "I am not even thinking about what happens beyond that, and that is the way we are going to go about our business this week."

Fantasy Goo: I think it’s crazy of him to do, but I’m sure he has Tom Coughlin in his ear feeding him that old-school philosophy. Looks like Bortles, Fournette, Westbrook and Cole will be safe plays against a Titan’s team hoping to hold on to the sixth seed in the AFC.


12/26/17, 10:00 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

Los Angeles Rams

Resting Starters


McVay hints that there will be Rams starters “who won’t play at all” on Sunday. The Rams are already locked into either the No. 3 or 4 seed in the NFC and will host a Wild Card round playoff game.

Fantasy Goo: Gurley, Goff, Woods, all sitting this week? That’s going to destroy so many hopes and dreams for teams that rode Gurley all year.


12/26/17, 09:58 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


DeMarco Murray

Tennessee Titans

Grind It Out


Mike Mularkey said he's not ruling DeMarco Murray out just yet. He's day-to-day. The Titans are holding out hope to have him in limited role.

Fantasy Goo: They are really grinding him into the dirt if they play him this week. I didn’t see the injury, but it sounded pretty ugly from sources in the know. Keep away from him in whatever format you are playing this week, I’m giving Derick Henry a solid upgrade as the Titans are trying to hold on to the final playoff spot in the AFC.


12/26/17, 05:17 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Philadelphia Eagles

All Locked Up


Pederson on playing Foles vs. Cowboys: “I’ve got to get him as many reps as he can and then be smart about it. Obviously, we have a lot of football left. Our season is really just beginning, quite honestly. We’ll be smart.”

Fantasy Goo: This is why you don’t play a championship game in week 17. I’m staying away from the Eagles regular starters, pretty much across the board, as they have a first round bye all locked up. Guys like Blount, Clement, and Nelson Agholor might have some DFS appeal, but we have to get closer to Sunday to see what they plan on doing.


12/26/17, 05:15 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Lamar Miller is the DFS cover player for this week's DFS piece

The Daily Dos & Don'ts - Week 12 DFS Advice (2016)

Posted by d-Rx on 11/26/16

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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Stagg Party's Week 12 DFS Picks

 

Pillar: David Johnson - DraftKings - $8,900 / FanDuel - $9,500   [ARI@ATL]

David Johnson has been a lock for much of the season. He literally posses an 18-point floor weekly in PPR purposes because of his involvement in the passing game, the redzone, and even running it between the twenties with nearly no competition. DJ has finished with over 100 scrimmage yards in every game this season. Johnson has scored multiple touchdowns in half of his games this season and has a ceiling as high as anyone on the main slate. Especially with Ezekiel Elliott and Le’Veon Bell off the board with their thanksgiving matchups. Lock in David Johnson into your lineups and expect a big game against the Atlanta Falcons who have given up 50% more fantasy points to opposing running backs then the average team over the last three weeks.

 

Mid Priced Core Piece: Lamar Miller - DraftKings - $5,800 / FanDuel - $7,100 [SD@HOU]

Lamar Miller looked fully healthy on Monday Night on his way to a big night. Miller rushed for 100 yards for the third time this seasonseason, and scored his third rushing touchdown of the season to help cap off a top-12 week. Miller played over 75% of the snaps and looks healthy and primed for a stretch run. San Diego is allowing the 5th most fantasy points to opposing running backs and have allowed 12 rushing touchdowns. The Chargers have yet to give up a 100-yard rusher this season, but give it up in the passing game to running backs as well which is something Lamar Miller has shown the ability to do. At his price, Lamar Miller is an interesting alternative to Rashad Jennings who is sure to be more highly owned.

 

Low Cost Dart Throw: Will Tye - DraftKings - $3,000 / FanDuel - $4,600 [NYG@CLE]

Will Tye is coming off his first touchdown of the season. Tye is also not being bothered by Larry Donnell any longer who has been a healthy scratch in the Giants last two weeks. Tye has 20 targets over the last three weeks and showed down the stretch last season that he can be a viable fantasy option. But the real reason you are starting Tye is his low price and the great matchup against the Browns. The Browns are allowing 10 more receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends then any teams in the league. The Browns are also tied for allowing the most touchdowns to opposing tight ends on the season. Tye is an interesting streaming option this week in redraft and low cost option in DFS.

 

Fade: Mike Evans - DraftKings - $7,500 / FanDuel - $7,900   [SEA@TB]

Mike Evans is the number one wide receiver over the last three weeks, and is the most heavily targeted receiver in the league. But Seattle is a tough matchup for opposing wide receivers, even though they go into the game more banged up in the secondary than at any point this season. Sherman has shadowed some receivers this season, and if there is ever a week for him to do so again though it is this week. At his price point, there are just many other players I would rather play this week.

 

Stack of the Week: Russell Wilson and Doug Baldwin [SEA@TB]




 

PyromaniacMo’s Week 12 DFS Picks

 

Pillar: Jay Ajayi - DraftKings - $7,600 / FanDuel - $8,400 [SF@MIA]

Vegas opened this up with an implied point total for Miami at 27, which is on the higher end this week. Not only that, being that they are favored by more than a TD, you expect them to chew the clock and lean on the ground game against the 49’ers who are allowing a league high 5.2 yards per carry. Home games are always a big plus. Considering they are facing the league’s softest run D, and Miami themselves are gaining 4.8 ypc as a team, a number that currently stands as second highest in the NFL. The 49’ers are allowing the most FF Points per game to opposing RBs. In fact, this defense has allowed a 100 yard rusher in all but two games thus far. Finally, thanks to recency bias, Ajayi might be a bit lower owned this week. It is a fantastic matchup, but after 3 weeks of dominance, he has put up just over 20 FF Points in the last two weeks combined.

 

 

Mid Priced Core Piece: Michael Thomas - DraftKings - $6,600 / FanDuel - $6,400 [LA@NO]

Drew Brees is averaging 366 yards at home and exactly 3 TDs per game. He is not the only Saint that enjoys the Big Easy, as MT himself has an 82% catch rate when playing in Louisiana, it drops a whopping 12 percentage point on the road. New Orleans is expected to roll again as they opened with a 26.25 implied team total. LA, while tough against the rush, invites teams to pass. Thomas will enjoy the softest CB matchup in this game as EJ Gaines will face off against him on most plays. Pro Football Focus currently has grades on 119 cornerbacks, Mr. Gaines comes in at number 115. It should come as no surprise that Gaines is the most picked on of the LA corners. If you add the fact that Gaines also gives up the most FF Points per route run, this should be a great game for Thomas.

 

 

Low Cost Dart Throw: Kendall Wright- DraftKings - $4,000 / FanDuel - $4,500 [TEN@CHI]

In the last five weeks, no other defense has given up more PPR points per game to the opposition than the Chicago Bears. In that span, 6 WRs have scored, the vast majority of them from the slot. The fault lies with their slot corner, Cre’von LeBlanc. Considering the Bears are starting Barkley, who in his only start so far this year completed just 40% of his passes for 2 INTS and a total of 81 yards, chances are fairly good that the Titans will have more offensive drives per game than normal. This will allow Mariota to work his magic and pick on the Bears liability at corner, one Mr. Le’Blanc. At a week when you will want to spend up at the cornerback position, low end guys like Kendall Wright will come in handy.

 

Since I believe you want to collect a few low-cost WRs, here’s a bonus guy: Braxton Miller. He is the price minimum for a WR on both Fan Duel and Draft Kings. So, yes, he does have Brock tossing him the ball, but last week, Miller collected 7 targets and scored a TD. Will Fuller has not seen 7 targets since Week 7. Plus, Brock should have more time in the pocket considering 4 of San Diego’s 9 defensive linemen are on IR.  The lack of depth is one contributing factor to the sluggish play of the Chargers D-line. Football Outsiders only scores 2 team defenses with a lower adjusted sack rate that San Diego. Finally, Braxton will square off against Trevor Williams. He is getting straight picked on by opposing passers and for good reason. In fact, he is targeted on 32% of all passes, no other starting CB in the entire NFL gets thrown at as much.

 

 

Fade:  Jeremy Hill - DraftKings - $3,900 / FanDuel - $5,900 [CIN@BAL]

This is a tough one. Now, when I say fade, I may still have him in a lineup, but I play mulitiple. The fact is, this is a starting RB, that is expected to get the bulk of the carriers what with Gio out. For his going price, on Draft Kings especially, that is hard to ignore. But I am certainly going to be under weight on him. He goes against the league’s best rush defense. They held Ezekiel Elliott, arguably the league’s most impressive running back, to less than four yards a carry. But, while I am going to be under weight, on most of my plays, I want to leverage his high ownership. I believe a lot of people will be on him for the reasons I just stated. If Baltimore plays as they have been, and let’s face it, Hill is no Zeke, many owners will struggle to meet 2X. Baltimore is the only team in the league to allow fewer than 80 rushing yards per game to opponents. On Draft Kings, they are giving up the 2nd fewest points to the position. Baltimore is a funnel, D, that is precisely how I think they will spend most of their possessions.

 

 

Stack of the Week:   Titans Defense &  DeMarco Murray

 

 

 

 

FanDuel Points Allowed Thru 11 Weeks


FanDuel Points Allowed Thru 11 Weeks




DraftKings Points Allowed Thru 11 Weeks


DraftKings Points Allowed Thru 11 Weeks


 


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