Week 20
January 20, 2018
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Tom Brady

New England Patriots

Tom Still Terrific?


Tom Brady was first listed on the team's injury report with an Achilles injury heading in to Week 11.
Weeks 1-10: 21.2 fantasy points per game, 110.9 passer rating
Weeks 11-17: 14.2 fantasy points per game, 87.3 passer rating

Fantasy Goo: This should line up for a good week for Brady, Tennessee is 8th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, but just below average against QB’s. The Patriots are 13 point favorites on Saturday Night, if Brady doesn’t do it at home in prime-time then something is wrong.


01/09/18, 07:30 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alvin Kamara

New Orleans Saints

Primary Role Shifting


Saints have run 5 times at/inside opponent's 5-yard line over last 4 weeks (including playoffs):
Alvin Kamara 3 carries, Zach Line 1, Mark Ingram 1. Kamara was in on all 3 Saints run plays at/inside 5 vs. Panthers last week, including Line's 1-yard TD run.

Fantasy Goo: If you’re trying to decide between Kamara and Ingram for the playoff run, Kamara looks to be the much better play.


01/09/18, 07:20 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jay Ajayi

Philadelphia Eagles

It's A Trap


Jay Ajayi (knee) is practicing in full for the Divisional Round.

Fantasy Goo: Atlanta is 5th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s this year and they are more susceptible to pass-catching backs. Todd Gurley rushed 14 times for 101 yards in the Rams' Wild Card loss to the Falcons, adding four receptions for 10 additional yards. Ajayi might have been drafted before Gurley this year, but that was clearly a mistake. Ajayi has talent, but he’s far from a good option this week.


01/09/18, 07:16 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Chris Hogan

New England Patriots

Back in Action


Chris Hogan (shoulder) is expected to return for Saturday's Divisional Round game against the Titans.

Fantasy Goo: He’s going to take a couple of weeks to get in tune with the offense, I’m looking to save him until the Super Bowl if you’re in one of those one and done fantasy playoff tournaments.


01/09/18, 07:14 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Drew Brees

New Orleans Saints

Strength vs Strength


Saints RBs led NFL during regular season in receptions (9.0) and receiving yards (77.8) per game.
Vikings held opposing RBs to fewest yards per target (4.2) and 3rd-fewest yards per game (30.6).

Fantasy Goo: The Vikings have been absolutely sick in all aspects on defense this year. If the Saints are going to pull this one out it sounds like it’s going to have to be a Brees week, I’m not so sure he’s going to be the guy you want to start on the road this week.


01/09/18, 07:12 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


LeSean McCoy

Buffalo Bills

Not The Real McCoy


LeSean McCoy said if he plays Sunday, "I want to be able to cut well enough to where I don't have a lot of pain cutting. I just want to be close, or the best as far as 100 percent as I can get. The type of game like this, you got to lay it all on the line.”

Fantasy Goo: McCoy is a poor play against the Jags this week. The Jags strength on defense is against the pass (#1 in FP allowed), but they are still strong against the rush (11th). I’m not taking any Bills on fantasy playoff squads or in DFS this week.


01/04/18, 09:29 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Derrick Henry

Tennessee Titans

Arrow Pointing Down


DeMarco Murray (knee) didn't practice again Thursday. Derrick Henry show ready to go.

Fantasy Goo: The way to attack KC is through the air, they rank 9th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s. They will most likely be in negative game script. KC hasn’t allowed any team to score over 20 points in Arrowhead all year.


01/04/18, 09:27 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Julio Jones

Atlanta Falcons

No Fly Zone


Julio Jones finished 11th in NFL in red-zone targets but caught only 5 of 19. He finished 4th in targets inside 10 but only caught 4 of 11.

Fantasy Goo: The Rams have a strong pass defense, especially against outside receivers, but are second worst in fantasy points allowed to RB’s. Freeman and Coleman are the only Falcons I am considering this week.


01/04/18, 09:25 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Kenny Golladay

Detroit Lions

Under the Radar


In the first game with TJ Jones (shoulder) on IR last week, Kenny Golladay played 95% of snaps and led DET WRs with 8 targets.

Fantasy Goo: Marvin Jones has a history of shredding the Packers defense and is a solid play at $6500 on DK, but Golladay is half the price ($3300) and will probably see a similar number of targets. If Detroit had something to play for I’d be stacking the heck out of this game, but I still think it’s smart to have one of these guys in the line-up this week.


12/31/17, 09:46 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Patrick Mahomes

Kansas City Chiefs

Rookie Debut


Patrick Mahomes was 2nd in PFF’s QB Rating when kept clean in preseason. He rushed for 744 yards, 22 TDs in his last two years at Texas Tech. Denver has allowed multiple passing TDs to six-straight QBs not named Petty or Brissett.

Fantasy Goo: The rookie was supposed to take over for Alex Smith much earlier this season, but Smith and the Chief’s came out firing on all cylinders and kept the rookie on the bench. Mahomes will get his chance this week as Smith gets a week off before the playoffs. Denver may be packing it in, but they still have one of the best defenses and I expect they will play more inspired this week against a division rival.


12/31/17, 09:32 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Wayne Gallman

New York Giants

Last Man Standing


Giants will be without Shepard (neck), Engram (ribs), and King (concussion) vs. WAS. Wayne Gallman has 9, 7, 8 target counts in last three weeks.

Fantasy Goo: Washington ranks 24th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s and Gallman is $4200 on DK. Feels like a great way to save and pay up at other positions.


12/31/17, 09:21 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alex Collins

Baltimore Ravens

Burfict Situation


Bengals LB Vontaze Burfict ruled out for game Sunday at Baltimore because of shoulder injury.

Fantasy Goo: Collins becomes a solid RB1 this week. Cincinnati’s run defense is a sieve with Burfict out.


12/31/17, 09:19 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Akeem Hunt

Houston Texans

Akeem No Dream


Charcandrick West is out Sunday vs Denver with an illness. Akeem Hunt and Kareem Hunt only RBs on active roster for KC. It would be a surprise to see Kareem play much. That means a ton of Akeem Hunt and likely some De'Anthony Thomas on passing downs.

Fantasy Goo: Akeem is min price ($3000) on DK so the definition of a free-square, but there’s a reason he’s bounced around the NFL and never earned a starting role. Denver is 5th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, I’m not rostering Akeem when there are so many other options this week.


12/31/17, 09:17 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


DeAndre Hopkins

Houston Texans

Milestone Not Worth The Risk


Bill O'Brien on DeAndre Hopkins' status: 'Probably won't know up until game time'. Typically, we might classify this as coach-speak, but Hopkins has never missed a game, and is four catches away from 100 for the season. He's probably pushing hard to play.

Fantasy Goo: This is an awesome match-up for the Houston WR’s going against a very weak Indy pass defense, but there is really no reason for Hopkins to play, especially with the calf injury. At $8400 on DK he’s just way too pricey given this news. A sneaky start might be Will Fuller at $4300, he has 5 targets in each of the past three games and is coming off some difficult match-ups. Earlier in the season he was a superstar with Watson throwing the ball, but he has always had the big play in his arsenal no matter who the QB is.


12/29/17, 10:03 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Dion Lewis

New England Patriots

Vultures Are Always Flying


James White (ankle) remained limited at Thursday's practice. White was absent for last week's win over Buffalo but should be out there against the Jets in Week 17. He ranks eighth among running backs with 56 catches this year.

Fantasy Goo: Lewis dominated last week with White and Burkhead out, even though Gillislee vultured a TD. I would imagine that White playing will take away the five receptions Lewis had last week and the Jets actually have a better rush defense than the Pats week 16 opponent (Buf). The Pats will be looking to lock-up home field advantage and won’t be resting their starters, but they will probably be looking to get everyone some work as they prep for the playoffs. Gillislee appears to be nursing a hammy and is not expected to play, but let’s not forget how White performed last year in the Super Bowl.


12/29/17, 09:47 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

Pittsburgh Steelers

Stars Sitting


The Steelers Marcus Gilbert tells reporter Tim Benz that the Steelers won't play Ben Roethlisberger or Le'Veon Bell in finale vs. Cleveland. Landry Jones will be under center for Pittsburgh and Fitzgerald Toussaint and Stevan Ridley will form a thoroughly underwhelming RB committee against the Browns.

Fantasy Goo: Underwhelming is an understatement for these two backs, a highly respected fantasy website hasn’t even updated the news on these two since the pre-season and doesn’t even recognize them as being on the team. The one player of note in this is Martavis Bryant, The Alien averages over 17 ppr points per game with Landry at the helm as opposed to 8.4 ppg with other QB’s. He also has 5 TD’s in 5 home games with Landry. Granted most of this production comes from 2015 when they worked together often in the preseason, but Bryant could be a very sneaky GPP play this week.


12/29/17, 09:23 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Jacksonville Jaguars

Play To Win The Game


Despite already being locked into the AFC's No. 3 seed, Jaguars coach Doug Marrone has no plans to rest starters in Sunday's game against the Titans. "Make no mistake about it, just so there is not a lot of talk during the week: When the players come in (Wednesday), we are talking about how we are going to play to win and do everything we possibly can to win this game, period," Marrone said. "I am not even thinking about what happens beyond that, and that is the way we are going to go about our business this week."

Fantasy Goo: I think it’s crazy of him to do, but I’m sure he has Tom Coughlin in his ear feeding him that old-school philosophy. Looks like Bortles, Fournette, Westbrook and Cole will be safe plays against a Titan’s team hoping to hold on to the sixth seed in the AFC.


12/26/17, 10:00 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

Los Angeles Rams

Resting Starters


McVay hints that there will be Rams starters “who won’t play at all” on Sunday. The Rams are already locked into either the No. 3 or 4 seed in the NFC and will host a Wild Card round playoff game.

Fantasy Goo: Gurley, Goff, Woods, all sitting this week? That’s going to destroy so many hopes and dreams for teams that rode Gurley all year.


12/26/17, 09:58 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


DeMarco Murray

Tennessee Titans

Grind It Out


Mike Mularkey said he's not ruling DeMarco Murray out just yet. He's day-to-day. The Titans are holding out hope to have him in limited role.

Fantasy Goo: They are really grinding him into the dirt if they play him this week. I didn’t see the injury, but it sounded pretty ugly from sources in the know. Keep away from him in whatever format you are playing this week, I’m giving Derick Henry a solid upgrade as the Titans are trying to hold on to the final playoff spot in the AFC.


12/26/17, 05:17 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Philadelphia Eagles

All Locked Up


Pederson on playing Foles vs. Cowboys: “I’ve got to get him as many reps as he can and then be smart about it. Obviously, we have a lot of football left. Our season is really just beginning, quite honestly. We’ll be smart.”

Fantasy Goo: This is why you don’t play a championship game in week 17. I’m staying away from the Eagles regular starters, pretty much across the board, as they have a first round bye all locked up. Guys like Blount, Clement, and Nelson Agholor might have some DFS appeal, but we have to get closer to Sunday to see what they plan on doing.


12/26/17, 05:15 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Julio Jones is due for a nice week in DFS after a few weeks of sub par games for the stud WR

The Daily Dos & Don'ts - Week 13 DFS Advice (2016)

Posted by d-Rx on 12/03/16

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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Stagg Party's Week 13 DFS Picks

 


Pillar: Drew Brees - DraftKings - $7,600 / FanDuel - $9,300   [DET@NO]

Drew Brees is a monster and is coming off a huge week in which he lit up the Los Angeles Rams. This week he goes back to the Superdome which he owns for a matchup against another offensive power with a suspect defense in the Detroit Lions. Brees has been on fire and has a trio of receivers that can get the job done as well as multiple playmakers at the running back and tight end positions. The Lions are giving up the sixth most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and have been very good taking away rushing touchdowns this season making Brees more likely to have to score through the air and we already know he is going to get at least three hundred yards at home. This game has a total of 54 points so I want to play a ton of players in this game as it could be one of the shootouts of the year.

 

Mid Priced Core Piece: Brandin Cooks - DraftKings - $6,400 / FanDuel - $6,800 [DET@NO]

Brandin Cooks is coming off a solid goose egg for fantasy owners last week, which has pissed a lot of fantasy owners off, so maybe you can get him at a lower ownership then typical for a guy with his ceiling. Cooks may no longer be the number one receiver on his own team, but is consistently thrown to, one week withstanding, and has the ability to take it to the house from anywhere on the field. The Lions have a lot of holes in the secondary and in their linebacking corps making all the Saints pass catchers attractive options this week. Stacking two pass catchers with Brees is far from out of the question, but I like Cooks to rebound after being forgotten about last week. It also helps that Michael Thomas has surpassed him in terms of cost, making him a cheaper option to pair with Brees.

 

Low Cost Dart Throw: Marvin Jones - DraftKings - $4,400 / FanDuel - $5,600 [DET@NO]

Marvin Jones has been a major fantasy disappointment since his early season breakout but has a string of tough matchups in strong passing defenses or shut down corners. Jones now gets a New Orleans Saints team that should allow him to remedy his miscues. The Saints are middle of the road against opposing wide receivers, but at his price tag, no one comes close to Jones’ consistent targets and overall ceiling. One interesting tactic in DFS is to target players who have had a major pricing change and play them at a low point, and Marvin Jones definitely has that with a season high salary of 7,600. Jones is also positively correlated to the Saints passing game so you can even stuff him in the Saints stacks.

 

Fade: Jay Ajayi - DraftKings - $7,500 / FanDuel - $7,900   [MIA@BAL]

Jay Ajayi had a nice middle of the season but has cooled off in recent weeks, mostly due to an unhealthy offensive line and backups who aren’t nearly as good as the starters being slotted in. While two of the three could be back this week who knows how their performances will be affected by their injuries. With a potentially hampered offensive line and one of the best run defenses in the league, I think it is better avoiding Ajayi with other running backs in his price range in much better spots.

 

Stack of the Week: Drew Brees and Brandin Cooks [DET@NO]

 



 

Houdini's Week 13 DFS Picks

 

 

Pillar: Julio Jones – Draft Kings $8,700 / Fan Duel $8,300 [ATL vs. KC]

Julio is coming off a tough performance last where he only posted four receptions for 35 yards, but that was against Patrick Peterson. This week he faces a Chiefs defense that has been victimized by opposing receivers, allowing 26.8 fantasy points per game, second most in the league. Julio is going to make up for last week in a big way with a ton of targets and a couple touchdowns. You have to play Julio this week!!!

 

Mid Priced Core Piece: Theo Riddick – Draft Kings $5,800 / Fan Duel $6,500 [DET@NO]

Riddick has been okay the last three weeks, but he has been held out of the endzone. Part of the reason for this is that he played the Vikings twice, and the other against the Jaguars. This week he gets the Saints, and this is when he will be marching back into the endzone. The Saints allow 21.4 fantasy points to running backs, 6th most, and Riddick is going to do a lot of damage as a receiver this week. This game has shootout written all over it, and Theo will be a big part of that.

 

Low Cost Dart Throw: Dontrell Inman – Draft Kings $5,200 / Fan Duel $5,200 [SD vs. TB]

Tyrell Williams is nursing a shoulder injury and may not be able to play, or could be limited. If he can’t go then Inman becomes a super steal for you, as he will see a ton of targets. The Buccaneers defense has been better as of late, but they still give up 24.2 fantasy points per game to receivers. Philip Rivers loves to chuck it, and if Williams is out you need to have Inman IN your lineup.

 

Fade: Odell Beckham Jr. – Draft Kings $8,500 / Fan Duel $9,000 [DAL@PIT]

Odell has been getting back to his old self, and last week he scored two touchdowns. He now has five touchdowns in his last four games. Unfortunately he has been held under 100 yards in his last five games. He will face a Steelers defense that is 4th best at limiting receivers, giving up only 18.9 fantasy points per game. OBJ will be trying to match Antonio Brown, but I think Brown wins the battle and with them at the same price is why I am fading on Beckham.

 

Stack of the Week: Get in on the action with almost any combination in the Saints/Lions game 



 

Mo’s Week 13 DFS Picks

 

Pillar: Jordan Howard - DraftKings - $6,900 / FanDuel - $7,400 [SF@CHI]

This is a great cash game play. Jo-Ho is sure to get the work as the Bears have run out of offensive options. The best part of this deal, he faces the 49’ers, no other defense in the league is giving up as many yards per carry to opposing backs. Not only that, they surrender the most total rushing yards, the most rushing TDs, and the most PPR fantasy points on a per game basis. As a fantasy player, you want to chase opportunity. There are few RBs that are going to have the volume that Howard will receive against perhaps the league’s most vulnerable defense to opposing RBs.

 

Mid Priced Core Piece: Matt Forte - DraftKings - $5,900 / FanDuel - $6,900 [IND@NYJ]

Forte has put up top 12 PPR performances in 55% of his games this season. That trend should continue as the team expects All-Pro Center, Nick Mangold, to return this week. That will be a big boost. In Week 13, they welcome Indy to town. The Colts rank 31st in adjusted line yards surrendered to opposing RBs. In the fantasy realm, their defense has surrendered the 8th most FF Points. Of course, Forte can get it done on the ground and through the air. The Colts have given up the most receiving TDs to opposing RBs this season, 5 all told. This is going to be a tight game, and Vegas opened this one up with a 49.5 line. There should be plenty of scoring to be had, and because Forte is heavily involved in all facets of this offense, he should be considered prime DFS real-estate.

  

Low Cost Dart Throw: Marquise Goodwin - DraftKings - $3,400 / FanDuel - $5,200 [BUF@OAK]

There could be few players at this basement price, especially on Draft Kings, that can expect the amount of volume that will come Goodwin’s way. Both Robert woods, and Percy Harvin have been ruled out. Sammy Watkins will likely be on a bit of a snap count as his surgically repaired foot swelled up this week in practice. It should be noted that Goodwin technically has a Questionable designation himself, but there is nothing to suggest he is in danger of missing this game. The fact of the matter is, he could very well lead the Bills in targets. We have seen him strike from anywhere on the field, and he will have opportunity to do it this weekend. Vegas pegged this one with an over/under of 50 points when this one opened. The Raiders are only favored by 3, that means there should be scoring a plenty. This game may not reach 50, but still, the opportunity is there in spades for Goodwin.

 

Fade:  Terrance West - DraftKings - $3,800 / FanDuel - $5,900 [MIA@BAL]

To be honest, I am fading both Baltimore RBs. Look, I love me some Dixon. However, for some reason, the coaching staff has just not given him the go-ahead. Dixon and West continue to cannibalize one another in this offense. I have been pushing Dixon since he was drafted. But until something shakes loose in this offense, I am staying away. Dixon’s usage has been trending upwards, but it appears stuck in this time-share. I am willing to sit this one out. Once he does plant his flag, great. But until I see it, I just see these two backs continue to drag one-another down. Besides, the Ravens offense is stuck in neutral. They are not putting up the points, and win through their defense.

 

Game Stack of the Week:   Detroit Lions @ the New Orleans Saints

 

 

 

 

 

FanDuel Points Allowed Thru 12 Weeks of Games Played


FanDuel Points Allowed Thru 12 Weeks




DraftKings Points Allowed Thru 12 Weeks of Games Played


DraftKings Points Allowed Thru 12 Weeks


 


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