Week 20
January 20, 2018
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Tom Brady

New England Patriots

Tom Still Terrific?


Tom Brady was first listed on the team's injury report with an Achilles injury heading in to Week 11.
Weeks 1-10: 21.2 fantasy points per game, 110.9 passer rating
Weeks 11-17: 14.2 fantasy points per game, 87.3 passer rating

Fantasy Goo: This should line up for a good week for Brady, Tennessee is 8th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, but just below average against QB’s. The Patriots are 13 point favorites on Saturday Night, if Brady doesn’t do it at home in prime-time then something is wrong.


01/09/18, 07:30 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alvin Kamara

New Orleans Saints

Primary Role Shifting


Saints have run 5 times at/inside opponent's 5-yard line over last 4 weeks (including playoffs):
Alvin Kamara 3 carries, Zach Line 1, Mark Ingram 1. Kamara was in on all 3 Saints run plays at/inside 5 vs. Panthers last week, including Line's 1-yard TD run.

Fantasy Goo: If you’re trying to decide between Kamara and Ingram for the playoff run, Kamara looks to be the much better play.


01/09/18, 07:20 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jay Ajayi

Philadelphia Eagles

It's A Trap


Jay Ajayi (knee) is practicing in full for the Divisional Round.

Fantasy Goo: Atlanta is 5th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s this year and they are more susceptible to pass-catching backs. Todd Gurley rushed 14 times for 101 yards in the Rams' Wild Card loss to the Falcons, adding four receptions for 10 additional yards. Ajayi might have been drafted before Gurley this year, but that was clearly a mistake. Ajayi has talent, but he’s far from a good option this week.


01/09/18, 07:16 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Chris Hogan

New England Patriots

Back in Action


Chris Hogan (shoulder) is expected to return for Saturday's Divisional Round game against the Titans.

Fantasy Goo: He’s going to take a couple of weeks to get in tune with the offense, I’m looking to save him until the Super Bowl if you’re in one of those one and done fantasy playoff tournaments.


01/09/18, 07:14 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Drew Brees

New Orleans Saints

Strength vs Strength


Saints RBs led NFL during regular season in receptions (9.0) and receiving yards (77.8) per game.
Vikings held opposing RBs to fewest yards per target (4.2) and 3rd-fewest yards per game (30.6).

Fantasy Goo: The Vikings have been absolutely sick in all aspects on defense this year. If the Saints are going to pull this one out it sounds like it’s going to have to be a Brees week, I’m not so sure he’s going to be the guy you want to start on the road this week.


01/09/18, 07:12 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


LeSean McCoy

Buffalo Bills

Not The Real McCoy


LeSean McCoy said if he plays Sunday, "I want to be able to cut well enough to where I don't have a lot of pain cutting. I just want to be close, or the best as far as 100 percent as I can get. The type of game like this, you got to lay it all on the line.”

Fantasy Goo: McCoy is a poor play against the Jags this week. The Jags strength on defense is against the pass (#1 in FP allowed), but they are still strong against the rush (11th). I’m not taking any Bills on fantasy playoff squads or in DFS this week.


01/04/18, 09:29 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Derrick Henry

Tennessee Titans

Arrow Pointing Down


DeMarco Murray (knee) didn't practice again Thursday. Derrick Henry show ready to go.

Fantasy Goo: The way to attack KC is through the air, they rank 9th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s. They will most likely be in negative game script. KC hasn’t allowed any team to score over 20 points in Arrowhead all year.


01/04/18, 09:27 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Julio Jones

Atlanta Falcons

No Fly Zone


Julio Jones finished 11th in NFL in red-zone targets but caught only 5 of 19. He finished 4th in targets inside 10 but only caught 4 of 11.

Fantasy Goo: The Rams have a strong pass defense, especially against outside receivers, but are second worst in fantasy points allowed to RB’s. Freeman and Coleman are the only Falcons I am considering this week.


01/04/18, 09:25 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Kenny Golladay

Detroit Lions

Under the Radar


In the first game with TJ Jones (shoulder) on IR last week, Kenny Golladay played 95% of snaps and led DET WRs with 8 targets.

Fantasy Goo: Marvin Jones has a history of shredding the Packers defense and is a solid play at $6500 on DK, but Golladay is half the price ($3300) and will probably see a similar number of targets. If Detroit had something to play for I’d be stacking the heck out of this game, but I still think it’s smart to have one of these guys in the line-up this week.


12/31/17, 09:46 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Patrick Mahomes

Kansas City Chiefs

Rookie Debut


Patrick Mahomes was 2nd in PFF’s QB Rating when kept clean in preseason. He rushed for 744 yards, 22 TDs in his last two years at Texas Tech. Denver has allowed multiple passing TDs to six-straight QBs not named Petty or Brissett.

Fantasy Goo: The rookie was supposed to take over for Alex Smith much earlier this season, but Smith and the Chief’s came out firing on all cylinders and kept the rookie on the bench. Mahomes will get his chance this week as Smith gets a week off before the playoffs. Denver may be packing it in, but they still have one of the best defenses and I expect they will play more inspired this week against a division rival.


12/31/17, 09:32 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Wayne Gallman

New York Giants

Last Man Standing


Giants will be without Shepard (neck), Engram (ribs), and King (concussion) vs. WAS. Wayne Gallman has 9, 7, 8 target counts in last three weeks.

Fantasy Goo: Washington ranks 24th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s and Gallman is $4200 on DK. Feels like a great way to save and pay up at other positions.


12/31/17, 09:21 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alex Collins

Baltimore Ravens

Burfict Situation


Bengals LB Vontaze Burfict ruled out for game Sunday at Baltimore because of shoulder injury.

Fantasy Goo: Collins becomes a solid RB1 this week. Cincinnati’s run defense is a sieve with Burfict out.


12/31/17, 09:19 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Akeem Hunt

Houston Texans

Akeem No Dream


Charcandrick West is out Sunday vs Denver with an illness. Akeem Hunt and Kareem Hunt only RBs on active roster for KC. It would be a surprise to see Kareem play much. That means a ton of Akeem Hunt and likely some De'Anthony Thomas on passing downs.

Fantasy Goo: Akeem is min price ($3000) on DK so the definition of a free-square, but there’s a reason he’s bounced around the NFL and never earned a starting role. Denver is 5th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, I’m not rostering Akeem when there are so many other options this week.


12/31/17, 09:17 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


DeAndre Hopkins

Houston Texans

Milestone Not Worth The Risk


Bill O'Brien on DeAndre Hopkins' status: 'Probably won't know up until game time'. Typically, we might classify this as coach-speak, but Hopkins has never missed a game, and is four catches away from 100 for the season. He's probably pushing hard to play.

Fantasy Goo: This is an awesome match-up for the Houston WR’s going against a very weak Indy pass defense, but there is really no reason for Hopkins to play, especially with the calf injury. At $8400 on DK he’s just way too pricey given this news. A sneaky start might be Will Fuller at $4300, he has 5 targets in each of the past three games and is coming off some difficult match-ups. Earlier in the season he was a superstar with Watson throwing the ball, but he has always had the big play in his arsenal no matter who the QB is.


12/29/17, 10:03 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Dion Lewis

New England Patriots

Vultures Are Always Flying


James White (ankle) remained limited at Thursday's practice. White was absent for last week's win over Buffalo but should be out there against the Jets in Week 17. He ranks eighth among running backs with 56 catches this year.

Fantasy Goo: Lewis dominated last week with White and Burkhead out, even though Gillislee vultured a TD. I would imagine that White playing will take away the five receptions Lewis had last week and the Jets actually have a better rush defense than the Pats week 16 opponent (Buf). The Pats will be looking to lock-up home field advantage and won’t be resting their starters, but they will probably be looking to get everyone some work as they prep for the playoffs. Gillislee appears to be nursing a hammy and is not expected to play, but let’s not forget how White performed last year in the Super Bowl.


12/29/17, 09:47 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

Pittsburgh Steelers

Stars Sitting


The Steelers Marcus Gilbert tells reporter Tim Benz that the Steelers won't play Ben Roethlisberger or Le'Veon Bell in finale vs. Cleveland. Landry Jones will be under center for Pittsburgh and Fitzgerald Toussaint and Stevan Ridley will form a thoroughly underwhelming RB committee against the Browns.

Fantasy Goo: Underwhelming is an understatement for these two backs, a highly respected fantasy website hasn’t even updated the news on these two since the pre-season and doesn’t even recognize them as being on the team. The one player of note in this is Martavis Bryant, The Alien averages over 17 ppr points per game with Landry at the helm as opposed to 8.4 ppg with other QB’s. He also has 5 TD’s in 5 home games with Landry. Granted most of this production comes from 2015 when they worked together often in the preseason, but Bryant could be a very sneaky GPP play this week.


12/29/17, 09:23 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Jacksonville Jaguars

Play To Win The Game


Despite already being locked into the AFC's No. 3 seed, Jaguars coach Doug Marrone has no plans to rest starters in Sunday's game against the Titans. "Make no mistake about it, just so there is not a lot of talk during the week: When the players come in (Wednesday), we are talking about how we are going to play to win and do everything we possibly can to win this game, period," Marrone said. "I am not even thinking about what happens beyond that, and that is the way we are going to go about our business this week."

Fantasy Goo: I think it’s crazy of him to do, but I’m sure he has Tom Coughlin in his ear feeding him that old-school philosophy. Looks like Bortles, Fournette, Westbrook and Cole will be safe plays against a Titan’s team hoping to hold on to the sixth seed in the AFC.


12/26/17, 10:00 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

Los Angeles Rams

Resting Starters


McVay hints that there will be Rams starters “who won’t play at all” on Sunday. The Rams are already locked into either the No. 3 or 4 seed in the NFC and will host a Wild Card round playoff game.

Fantasy Goo: Gurley, Goff, Woods, all sitting this week? That’s going to destroy so many hopes and dreams for teams that rode Gurley all year.


12/26/17, 09:58 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


DeMarco Murray

Tennessee Titans

Grind It Out


Mike Mularkey said he's not ruling DeMarco Murray out just yet. He's day-to-day. The Titans are holding out hope to have him in limited role.

Fantasy Goo: They are really grinding him into the dirt if they play him this week. I didn’t see the injury, but it sounded pretty ugly from sources in the know. Keep away from him in whatever format you are playing this week, I’m giving Derick Henry a solid upgrade as the Titans are trying to hold on to the final playoff spot in the AFC.


12/26/17, 05:17 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Philadelphia Eagles

All Locked Up


Pederson on playing Foles vs. Cowboys: “I’ve got to get him as many reps as he can and then be smart about it. Obviously, we have a lot of football left. Our season is really just beginning, quite honestly. We’ll be smart.”

Fantasy Goo: This is why you don’t play a championship game in week 17. I’m staying away from the Eagles regular starters, pretty much across the board, as they have a first round bye all locked up. Guys like Blount, Clement, and Nelson Agholor might have some DFS appeal, but we have to get closer to Sunday to see what they plan on doing.


12/26/17, 05:15 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Stagg Party like's LeSean McCoy a lot this week in DFS

The Daily Dos & Don'ts - Week 15 DFS Advice (2016)

Posted by d-Rx on 12/16/16

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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Stagg Party's Week 15 DFS Picks

 


Pillar: LeSean McCoy - DraftKings - $8,900 / FanDuel - $9,000   [CLE@BUF]

LeSean McCoy is coming off another nice rushing performance as he was able to get loose against the Pittsburgh Steelers. This week he gets the Cleveland Browns who are allowing over 160 yards from scrimmage to running backs per game. In a game that is expected to snow, McCoy could be in line for another big workload in which he should have plenty of chances to exploit the Cleveland defense. Mike Gillislee could be in line for a vulture touchdown or two, McCoy will still have a chance to take it to the house from anywhere on the field. McCoy also provides a small cost savings over the cream of the crop RBs Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson. The Bills score more often when at home, and home favorite running backs are proven to score more fantasy points. It might be going back to the well, but hey, if it makes you money, why stop?

 

Mid Priced Core Piece: Carlos Hyde - DraftKings - $5,900 / FanDuel - $7,000 [SF@ATL]

Carlos Hyde is coming off of the most productive rushing game of his career. Hyde will also be in a great spot again this week taking on the Atlanta Falcons who are allowing the second most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Also in a week of blistering cold, Hyde will get the comfy confines of the Georgia Dome. While the Falcons Defense was great as a fantasy play last season, they did allow Todd Gurley to have a top-12 fantasy week. The Falcons have also allowed the most receptions to opposing running backs, and Hyde has proven fairly adequate at catching the ball this season. Over the last five weeks, the Falcons have continued that trend and given up at least 15 fantasy points to each of the last four main runners they have faced. While it may look like Atlanta could get out to a big lead and take Hyde of the gameplan, the 49ers always seem to mix in some run plays no matter the score.

 

Low Cost Dart Throw: Ty Montgomery - DraftKings - $4,800 / FanDuel - $5,000 [GB@CHI]

Ty Montgomery is coming off another nice week where he scored his first rushing touchdown of the season. Montgomery looks primed for another big workload this week as the Bears are stout against the run, and Aaron Rodgers threw it over 50 times the last time these two teams matched up. While I am not expecting another solid rushing performance I think Montgomery will be very involved as a receiver out of the backfield. While I prefer playing him at WR and in full PPR, there is also some value on FanDuel. Montgomery could also see some carries late in the game as the Packers should try and get up early in this cold weather game.

 

Fade: Antonio Brown - DraftKings - $8,400 / FanDuel - $8,500   [PIT@CIN]

Antonio Brown is coming off a solid game in the snow in Buffalo, but nothing to write home about. This week he looks to be in a similar spot as the Bengals are tough against wide receivers but do give it up to running backs, which could mean this is another Le’Veon Bell week after the explosion last week. Brown suffers mightily from Big Ben’s home/road splits, and in a freezing cold game, the passing game usually suffers in favor of the run game. Brown is awesome, but I am passing him up in DFS this week.

 

Stack of the Week: LeSean McCoy and Buffalo Bills Defense [CLE@BUF]



 

Houdini's Week 15 DFS Picks

  

Pillar: Devonta Freeman – DraftKings $6,700 / FanDuel $7,700 [ATL vs. SF]

Freeman is coming off a horrible performance against the Rams where he only managed 18 total yards. He will be facing another west coast team in the 49ers, but he should be able to fair much better in this matchup. San Francisco allows a league leading 27.9 fantasy points to running backs, and Freeman is going to be a dual threat monster this week, especially with Julio Jones out. His poor performance last week dropped his price, and makes him a perfect play this week.

 

Mid Priced Core Piece: Trevor Siemian – DraftKings $5,200 / FanDuel $6,600 [DEN vs. NE]

Trevor Sieman is a great mid priced sleeper this week against the Patriots. The Broncos currently have no semblance of a running game, and that has meant a lot of passing attempts for Siemian. In his last four games he has averaged 40.5 pass attempts for 311 passing yards with eight touchdowns, three interceptions, while adding 89 rushing yards. The Patriots are on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football, and will also have to deal with the altitude. Save your money on quarterback so you spend up at other positions this week.

 

Low Cost Dart Throw: J.J. Nelson – DraftKings $3,900 / FanDuel $5,000 [ARI vs. NO]

The Cardinals cut Michael Floyd after being arrested for a DUI, and that is going to clear the path for J.J. Nelson to make a much bigger fantasy impact the next two weeks. He gets the Saints at home this week, and while they are a better defense than they were last season, they can still be victimized by speed, which Nelson has. He should see at least five targets this week, and those will likely be downfield throws making him a boom candidate for no cost.

 

Fade: Aaron Rodgers – DraftKings $7,100 / FanDuel $8,500 [GB@CHI]

Rodgers has been on fire, and he torched the Bears for 326 yards and three touchdowns in their last meeting, but I am fading on him big time this week. The weather on Sunday could be the coldest game in the history of Soldier Field. The high is expected to be three degrees, with a low of negative thirteen. The chances that there will be a lot of throwing and yards is not high by my estimation, as gripping the ball and catching it will be very difficult in this game.

 

Stack of the Week: David Johnson and J.J. Nelson [ARI vs. NO] 



 

ØC's Week 15 DFS Picks

           

Pillar:  WR, Jordy Nelson - DraftKings $7,300 / FanDuel $7,700   [GB@CHI]

Jordy has been on a tear the last seven weeks of the season, averaging 22 FF points in PPR over that span. He’s collected seven touchdowns and nearly 600 yards receiving. Rodgers and Jordy have hit their stride just in time for the fantasy playoffs, and an away game in nearly sub-zero temperatures will do nothing to hamper this offense. The Bears have a solid secondary but allow over 21 points per game, making them 18th best in that category. There will be plenty of scoring in this divisional contest and without a rushing attack; the Packers will spearhead the offense through the air. Play Jordy will high confidence this week no matter what the price.

 

Sleeper:  QB, Tyrod Taylor - DraftKings $5,700 / FanDuel $7,600    [CLE@BUF]

Any player facing off against the Browns deserves no real explanation as to why you should start them. Cleveland is much better at defending the pass, but that has never been Tyrod’s strength. Taylor has two rushing touchdowns in the last two weeks and should have an easy path to a third in potentially shoddy weather. There have also been rumors of Taylor finding the bench unless he can improve in this offense. Both he and head Coach Rex Ryan are on thin ice and a failure to produce against the worst team in the league will mean curtains on their future. Look for Tyrod to throw for 200 and rush for 100 more with 2-3 total touchdowns. You could do a lot worse with more expensive QB options.

 

Low Cost Dart Throw:  Rishard Matthews - DraftKings $4,600 / FanDuel $5,800   [TEN@KC]

Kansas City has a “bend but don't break” attitude on defense, allowing almost 375 total yards per game to opposing offenses, yet they rank 8th in points allowed per game. Taking out last week’s match-up against the best secondary in football, Rishard has five touchdowns in five games and averages 70 yards receiving in each. Matthews is Mariota’s favorite target and shouldn’t have a problem getting open in Kansas City, as long as the O-Line allows Mariota some time to look downfield. The Titans are scrapping for their playoff lives and no offensive strategy is off the table. Emmanuel Sanders was the last WR to go off back in Week 12 for over 25 FF points, and Rishard has the talent to put up similar numbers. He is a great, cheap option this week. 

 

Fade:   WR, TY Hilton - DraftKings $7,200 / FanDuel $7,300   [ARI@MIA]

Hilton has been a beast of late; however, he is dealing with a back injury and will face a Minnesota secondary ranked third in passing yards allowed and second in total yards allowed. To expect another 25 FF point performance is asinine, especially on the road. While I would never sit TY in season long leagues, he’s just too expensive in such a violent match-up. Golden Tate has the highest FF point performance against the Vikings this season, and it was due to a long TD catch in overtime. No reason to waste your money on TY this week.  

 

Stack of the Week: Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson 

 


 

PyromaniacMo’s Week 15 DFS Picks

 

Pillar: LeSean McCoy - DraftKings - $8,900 / FanDuel - $9,000 [CLE@BUF]

Buffalo is home to Cleveland. This game carries the second highest spread of the week, in favor of the Bills. That means a positive game script, in other words, lots of running for the Bills, who already run the ball nearly 50% of the time, third most of all the league’s teams. The Browns D is giving up the second most rushing yards per game and will possibly be without starting DT, Jamie Meder, who has failed to practice Wed and Thur. Finally, McCoy has racked up ten games this season with at least 100 all-pyrpose yards and/or a TD.

 


Mid Priced Core Piece: Devonta Freeman- DraftKings - $6,700 / FanDuel - $7,700 [SF@ATL]

With Julio out, the pie should grow for everyone, and this week, the pie is extraordinarily large. In fact, Atlanta has the highest implied team total of the week, 32.5. That should come easy against the 49’ers who are allowing a league high 4.9 yards per carry, and a league high total rushing yards per game. According to Pyro’s own Positional Points Against chart, versus #1 RBs, the 49’ers allow 114 yards per game, by far the most in the NFL.  In fact, they have allowed a RB TD in the last 11 games straight. This game also carries the highest spread of the week, standing in the double-digits. Now, if you toss out last week’s decimation of the Rams where they beat them 42-14 and the game script was so out-of whack, there has been four other instances where the Falcons have won by more than a TD. In those four games, Freeman is averaging 18.7 Draft Kings points. With that track record, and the stench coming off the opposing D, this should be a recipe for fantasy success in Week 15.

 

Low Cost Dart Throw: Vikings - DraftKings - $3,500 / FanDuel - $4,500 [IND@MIN]

I am guessing most readers all ready know that Kenneth Farrow is only $4,400 on Draft Kings. That right there is a deal. But rarely do we talk defenses. Let’s face it, if you do not hit on your defense, then you certainly are not going to bring home the coin, at least not in tournament plays. Of course, everyone is aware of the Vikings D. They started the season on a historic pace. They hit a rough patch a few weeks ago, but still are amongst the leaders defensively in most categories. This week, they are home to the Colts. Indy has allowed the 2nd most QB hits. That is a gateway to fumbles, sacks, INTs, or just bad decisions. That is exactly what defenses try to capitalize on. The biggest reason to play the Vikings, surprisingly, is not the price; The Vikings are the 5th most expensive on Draft Kings and the 11th most on Fan Duel. The best reason to play Minnesota against Indianapolis is the latter’s offensive line injuries. Indy will be down three starting offensive linemen in Week 15. Look for the Vikings to exploit that all day long.

 

Fade:  Julian Edelman - DraftKings - $6,400 / FanDuel - $6,100 [NE@DEN]

Mile High is always a tough place to play. Add to that the fact you have two of the league’s best corners on your tail. According to Pro Football Focus, when grading corner backs in coverage, the Broncos indeed have the top two. Aqib Talib comes in at number one and his partner, chris Harris, is number two. That is a lethal duo, and certainly one to avoid in fantasy. When adjusting for schedule, Denver comes in at number one against opposing QBs and opposing WRs in both standard and PPR scoring.

 

Stack of the Week:   McCoy and the Bills D

 

 

 

FanDuel Points Allowed Thru 14 Weeks of Games Played


FanDuel Points Allowed Thru 14 Weeks of games played




DraftKings Points Allowed Thru 14 Weeks of Games Played


DraftKings Points Allowed Thru 14 Weeks


 


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