Week 20
January 20, 2018
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Tom Brady

New England Patriots

Tom Still Terrific?


Tom Brady was first listed on the team's injury report with an Achilles injury heading in to Week 11.
Weeks 1-10: 21.2 fantasy points per game, 110.9 passer rating
Weeks 11-17: 14.2 fantasy points per game, 87.3 passer rating

Fantasy Goo: This should line up for a good week for Brady, Tennessee is 8th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, but just below average against QB’s. The Patriots are 13 point favorites on Saturday Night, if Brady doesn’t do it at home in prime-time then something is wrong.


01/09/18, 07:30 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alvin Kamara

New Orleans Saints

Primary Role Shifting


Saints have run 5 times at/inside opponent's 5-yard line over last 4 weeks (including playoffs):
Alvin Kamara 3 carries, Zach Line 1, Mark Ingram 1. Kamara was in on all 3 Saints run plays at/inside 5 vs. Panthers last week, including Line's 1-yard TD run.

Fantasy Goo: If you’re trying to decide between Kamara and Ingram for the playoff run, Kamara looks to be the much better play.


01/09/18, 07:20 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jay Ajayi

Philadelphia Eagles

It's A Trap


Jay Ajayi (knee) is practicing in full for the Divisional Round.

Fantasy Goo: Atlanta is 5th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s this year and they are more susceptible to pass-catching backs. Todd Gurley rushed 14 times for 101 yards in the Rams' Wild Card loss to the Falcons, adding four receptions for 10 additional yards. Ajayi might have been drafted before Gurley this year, but that was clearly a mistake. Ajayi has talent, but he’s far from a good option this week.


01/09/18, 07:16 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Chris Hogan

New England Patriots

Back in Action


Chris Hogan (shoulder) is expected to return for Saturday's Divisional Round game against the Titans.

Fantasy Goo: He’s going to take a couple of weeks to get in tune with the offense, I’m looking to save him until the Super Bowl if you’re in one of those one and done fantasy playoff tournaments.


01/09/18, 07:14 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Drew Brees

New Orleans Saints

Strength vs Strength


Saints RBs led NFL during regular season in receptions (9.0) and receiving yards (77.8) per game.
Vikings held opposing RBs to fewest yards per target (4.2) and 3rd-fewest yards per game (30.6).

Fantasy Goo: The Vikings have been absolutely sick in all aspects on defense this year. If the Saints are going to pull this one out it sounds like it’s going to have to be a Brees week, I’m not so sure he’s going to be the guy you want to start on the road this week.


01/09/18, 07:12 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


LeSean McCoy

Buffalo Bills

Not The Real McCoy


LeSean McCoy said if he plays Sunday, "I want to be able to cut well enough to where I don't have a lot of pain cutting. I just want to be close, or the best as far as 100 percent as I can get. The type of game like this, you got to lay it all on the line.”

Fantasy Goo: McCoy is a poor play against the Jags this week. The Jags strength on defense is against the pass (#1 in FP allowed), but they are still strong against the rush (11th). I’m not taking any Bills on fantasy playoff squads or in DFS this week.


01/04/18, 09:29 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Derrick Henry

Tennessee Titans

Arrow Pointing Down


DeMarco Murray (knee) didn't practice again Thursday. Derrick Henry show ready to go.

Fantasy Goo: The way to attack KC is through the air, they rank 9th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s. They will most likely be in negative game script. KC hasn’t allowed any team to score over 20 points in Arrowhead all year.


01/04/18, 09:27 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Julio Jones

Atlanta Falcons

No Fly Zone


Julio Jones finished 11th in NFL in red-zone targets but caught only 5 of 19. He finished 4th in targets inside 10 but only caught 4 of 11.

Fantasy Goo: The Rams have a strong pass defense, especially against outside receivers, but are second worst in fantasy points allowed to RB’s. Freeman and Coleman are the only Falcons I am considering this week.


01/04/18, 09:25 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Kenny Golladay

Detroit Lions

Under the Radar


In the first game with TJ Jones (shoulder) on IR last week, Kenny Golladay played 95% of snaps and led DET WRs with 8 targets.

Fantasy Goo: Marvin Jones has a history of shredding the Packers defense and is a solid play at $6500 on DK, but Golladay is half the price ($3300) and will probably see a similar number of targets. If Detroit had something to play for I’d be stacking the heck out of this game, but I still think it’s smart to have one of these guys in the line-up this week.


12/31/17, 09:46 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Patrick Mahomes

Kansas City Chiefs

Rookie Debut


Patrick Mahomes was 2nd in PFF’s QB Rating when kept clean in preseason. He rushed for 744 yards, 22 TDs in his last two years at Texas Tech. Denver has allowed multiple passing TDs to six-straight QBs not named Petty or Brissett.

Fantasy Goo: The rookie was supposed to take over for Alex Smith much earlier this season, but Smith and the Chief’s came out firing on all cylinders and kept the rookie on the bench. Mahomes will get his chance this week as Smith gets a week off before the playoffs. Denver may be packing it in, but they still have one of the best defenses and I expect they will play more inspired this week against a division rival.


12/31/17, 09:32 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Wayne Gallman

New York Giants

Last Man Standing


Giants will be without Shepard (neck), Engram (ribs), and King (concussion) vs. WAS. Wayne Gallman has 9, 7, 8 target counts in last three weeks.

Fantasy Goo: Washington ranks 24th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s and Gallman is $4200 on DK. Feels like a great way to save and pay up at other positions.


12/31/17, 09:21 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alex Collins

Baltimore Ravens

Burfict Situation


Bengals LB Vontaze Burfict ruled out for game Sunday at Baltimore because of shoulder injury.

Fantasy Goo: Collins becomes a solid RB1 this week. Cincinnati’s run defense is a sieve with Burfict out.


12/31/17, 09:19 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Akeem Hunt

Houston Texans

Akeem No Dream


Charcandrick West is out Sunday vs Denver with an illness. Akeem Hunt and Kareem Hunt only RBs on active roster for KC. It would be a surprise to see Kareem play much. That means a ton of Akeem Hunt and likely some De'Anthony Thomas on passing downs.

Fantasy Goo: Akeem is min price ($3000) on DK so the definition of a free-square, but there’s a reason he’s bounced around the NFL and never earned a starting role. Denver is 5th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, I’m not rostering Akeem when there are so many other options this week.


12/31/17, 09:17 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


DeAndre Hopkins

Houston Texans

Milestone Not Worth The Risk


Bill O'Brien on DeAndre Hopkins' status: 'Probably won't know up until game time'. Typically, we might classify this as coach-speak, but Hopkins has never missed a game, and is four catches away from 100 for the season. He's probably pushing hard to play.

Fantasy Goo: This is an awesome match-up for the Houston WR’s going against a very weak Indy pass defense, but there is really no reason for Hopkins to play, especially with the calf injury. At $8400 on DK he’s just way too pricey given this news. A sneaky start might be Will Fuller at $4300, he has 5 targets in each of the past three games and is coming off some difficult match-ups. Earlier in the season he was a superstar with Watson throwing the ball, but he has always had the big play in his arsenal no matter who the QB is.


12/29/17, 10:03 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Dion Lewis

New England Patriots

Vultures Are Always Flying


James White (ankle) remained limited at Thursday's practice. White was absent for last week's win over Buffalo but should be out there against the Jets in Week 17. He ranks eighth among running backs with 56 catches this year.

Fantasy Goo: Lewis dominated last week with White and Burkhead out, even though Gillislee vultured a TD. I would imagine that White playing will take away the five receptions Lewis had last week and the Jets actually have a better rush defense than the Pats week 16 opponent (Buf). The Pats will be looking to lock-up home field advantage and won’t be resting their starters, but they will probably be looking to get everyone some work as they prep for the playoffs. Gillislee appears to be nursing a hammy and is not expected to play, but let’s not forget how White performed last year in the Super Bowl.


12/29/17, 09:47 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

Pittsburgh Steelers

Stars Sitting


The Steelers Marcus Gilbert tells reporter Tim Benz that the Steelers won't play Ben Roethlisberger or Le'Veon Bell in finale vs. Cleveland. Landry Jones will be under center for Pittsburgh and Fitzgerald Toussaint and Stevan Ridley will form a thoroughly underwhelming RB committee against the Browns.

Fantasy Goo: Underwhelming is an understatement for these two backs, a highly respected fantasy website hasn’t even updated the news on these two since the pre-season and doesn’t even recognize them as being on the team. The one player of note in this is Martavis Bryant, The Alien averages over 17 ppr points per game with Landry at the helm as opposed to 8.4 ppg with other QB’s. He also has 5 TD’s in 5 home games with Landry. Granted most of this production comes from 2015 when they worked together often in the preseason, but Bryant could be a very sneaky GPP play this week.


12/29/17, 09:23 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Jacksonville Jaguars

Play To Win The Game


Despite already being locked into the AFC's No. 3 seed, Jaguars coach Doug Marrone has no plans to rest starters in Sunday's game against the Titans. "Make no mistake about it, just so there is not a lot of talk during the week: When the players come in (Wednesday), we are talking about how we are going to play to win and do everything we possibly can to win this game, period," Marrone said. "I am not even thinking about what happens beyond that, and that is the way we are going to go about our business this week."

Fantasy Goo: I think it’s crazy of him to do, but I’m sure he has Tom Coughlin in his ear feeding him that old-school philosophy. Looks like Bortles, Fournette, Westbrook and Cole will be safe plays against a Titan’s team hoping to hold on to the sixth seed in the AFC.


12/26/17, 10:00 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

Los Angeles Rams

Resting Starters


McVay hints that there will be Rams starters “who won’t play at all” on Sunday. The Rams are already locked into either the No. 3 or 4 seed in the NFC and will host a Wild Card round playoff game.

Fantasy Goo: Gurley, Goff, Woods, all sitting this week? That’s going to destroy so many hopes and dreams for teams that rode Gurley all year.


12/26/17, 09:58 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


DeMarco Murray

Tennessee Titans

Grind It Out


Mike Mularkey said he's not ruling DeMarco Murray out just yet. He's day-to-day. The Titans are holding out hope to have him in limited role.

Fantasy Goo: They are really grinding him into the dirt if they play him this week. I didn’t see the injury, but it sounded pretty ugly from sources in the know. Keep away from him in whatever format you are playing this week, I’m giving Derick Henry a solid upgrade as the Titans are trying to hold on to the final playoff spot in the AFC.


12/26/17, 05:17 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Philadelphia Eagles

All Locked Up


Pederson on playing Foles vs. Cowboys: “I’ve got to get him as many reps as he can and then be smart about it. Obviously, we have a lot of football left. Our season is really just beginning, quite honestly. We’ll be smart.”

Fantasy Goo: This is why you don’t play a championship game in week 17. I’m staying away from the Eagles regular starters, pretty much across the board, as they have a first round bye all locked up. Guys like Blount, Clement, and Nelson Agholor might have some DFS appeal, but we have to get closer to Sunday to see what they plan on doing.


12/26/17, 05:15 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Drew Brees is Breesus

The Daily Dos & Don'ts - Week 16 DFS Advice (2016)

Posted by d-Rx on 12/23/16

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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Stagg Party's Week 16 DFS Picks

 

 

Pillar: T.Y. Hilton - DraftKings - $7,800 / FanDuel - $7,600   [IND@OAK]

 

Hilton has been playing out of his mind all season long and has come a long way to becoming a more complete receiver. Hilton will be facing a secondary that is middle of the pack against receivers but has shown signs of giving up the big play, which TY is a master at. After a disappointing performance in Minnesota, people might not also be dying to slot him into their lineups but if they do it has a chance to pay off big. The Raiders have allowed six different receivers over 20 fantasy points in PPR this season. TY also has shown to rebound from subpar fantasy performances in big ways this seasons averaging nearly 24 fantasy points in PPR coming off of a single digit fantasy performance. TY who plays a variety of different spots all over the field for the Colts should be highly involved as this game features one of the highest totals of the weekend.


Mid Priced Core Piece: Latavius Murray - DraftKings - $7,300 / FanDuel - $7,000 [IND@OAK]

 

Latavius Murray is in a great spot this week taking on the Indianapolis Colts in a home game as a favorite with a nice total. Latavius looks like the perfect storm for the running back position where many of the guys are in tough spots. The Colts are allowing 25 fantasy points per game in PPR leagues and have allowed a double-digit scorer in all but one game this season. Laxatives has three games this season with multiple rushing touchdowns but the Colts haven’t allowed a single player to rush for two touchdowns in a single game. Murray should have multiple cracks at the endzone this week and get a heavy amount of work in between the twenties. Murray at his price looks like a prime play this weekend.

 

Low Cost Dart Throw: Willie Snead - DraftKings - $5,500 / FanDuel - $6,000 [TB@NO]

 

Big Willie Style is coming off another solid game for the Saints in which he was used all over the field and most importantly in the redzone. Over the last two weeks Snead has been targeted 19 times and also caught 14 passes over that span. In his last matchup with the Buccaneers, Snead caught 6 passes for 85 yards. Snead is continually involved and has some touchdown upside especially in a game with a high over under in the Superdome. Snead was the leading wide receiver in the last matchup, but that game did happen without Michael Thomas in the lineup. Snead provides a cheap access point to the Saints offense in a game with a nice total.


Fade: Jimmy Graham - DraftKings - $4,500 / FanDuel - $6,200   [ARI@SEA]

 

Jimmy Graham takes on the Arizona Cardinals and the toughest tight end matchup in the league. In the last matchup, Graham caught just 5 of his 10 targets for 53 yards in an underwhelming performance. The Cards have allowed just one touchdown to a tight end on the season and it caps off Grahams total. While Graham is still a solid play, spending up to his point in DFS seems unwise with a few better options in his price range.


Stack of the Week: Andrew Luck and T.Y. Hilton [IND@OAK]


 


Houdini's Week 16 DFS Picks

 

 

Pillar: Drew Brees – Draft Kings $7,400 / Fan Duel $8,500 [NO vs. TB]

Drew Brees was not intimidated by the tough Cardinals defense last week, throwing for 389 yards with four touchdowns, and he will have a great chance for more this week against the Buccaneers at home. Drew had a horrible game throwing three interceptions with no touchdowns the last time these two teams faced each other two weeks ago. Drew will be able to make up for that performance now that he will have them in the dome, and the will look to air it out against the Bucs defense.


Mid Priced Core Piece: Jordan Howard – Draft Kings $6,300 / Fan Duel $7,200 [CHI vs. WAS]

Jordan Howard has rushed for more than 100 yards in three of his last seven games, but the best mark for him is that his low watermark in that time has been 77 yards. The more impressive stat is that he has totaled over 100 total yards in six of his last seven with a low watermark of 99 yards, and has scored five touchdowns. He faces a Redskins defense that has given up 17 rushing touchdowns and 115 rushing yards per game. Howard should be able to generate a lot of offense in a game where the Bears probably steal a victory at home.

 

Low Cost Dart Throw: Ted Ginn Jr. – Draft Kings $4,500 / Fan Duel $4,800 [CAR vs. ATL]

Ted Ginn has scored a touchdown in four of his last five games, and has seen 32 targets in that span. That amount of looks makes him viable, especially with his big play ability, as he is still averaging 13.9 yards per reception. The Panthers running game has improved, and Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess have not been extremely impressive this season. Ginn has the speed that they don’t, and is the last real boom threat in the offense. The Falcons give up the fourth most passing yards per game, and have allowed 28 passing touchdowns, which is second most. Ginn will get his chances to add to that this week.


Fade: Doug Martin – Draft Kings $5,400 / Fan Duel $6,900 [TB@NO]

Martin is getting a lot of touches, but he is doing nothing with them. He has failed to rush for more than 3.0 YPC in five of his last six games. So even though he has a tasty matchup with the Saints, you can’t trust it. When they met two weeks ago Martin carried the ball 17 times for 45 yards with a touchdown, and added one catch for 23 yards. The Bucs are likely to abandon their running game in order to keep pace with the Saints, and Martin is no value, even with his lower price on Draft Kings.


Stack of the Week:  Andrew Luck and T.Y. Hilton [IND@OAK] 





PyromaniacMo’s Week Week 16 DFS Picks


Pillar: DeMarco Murray- DraftKings - $7,000 / FanDuel - $8,400 [TEN@JAC]

Earlier this season, Murray put up 123 rushing yards and scored a TD against the Jags. That defense has certainly not fared well since. In fact, over the course of the last five weeks, they have surrendered just as many rushing TDs. Big bruisers do well against the Jags. McCoy put up 103 and a TD, Lamar Miller averaged 5.5 ypc, Melvin Gordon put up over 100 and a TD. The Jags are terrible in short yardage situations and on the goal line, and that bodes well for Murray as there are only six backs that have more red zone attempts. Finally, looking at Pyro’s own TPW chart, Murray secures a top 12 finish in 79% of his games, that is tied with David Johnson for the highest clip of top finishes.



Mid Priced Core Piece: Michael Thomas - DraftKings - $6,000 / FanDuel - $6,900 [TAM@NO]

The last time Drew Brees squared off against the Bucs, he was without Thomas. Now he has his full arsenal. Of course we know Drew Brees is a monster under the dome. However, Thomas also steps up his game. On the road, the rookie boasts a 70% catch rate, in New Orleans, his steady hands lock down 84% of passes thrown his way. This is one of just three games expected to score north of 50 points. Looking at Pyro’s own Positional Points Against Chart, Tampa allows the 6th most FF Points to opposing WR#1s. Finally, Michael Thomas will matchup up against Vernon Hargreaves III, who has continually been one of the worst corners this season. I expect Thomas to eat him for lunch.



Low Cost Dart Throw: Cameron Brate- DraftKings - $3,900 / FanDuel - $5,600 [TAM@NO]

Of course I am still going to get some action on Antonio Gates. He is bound to get that record, and that means there is not another TE that has a higher ceiling. But, I will also have exposure to Cameron Brate as well. This is a great game-stack play. There should be lots of scoring on both sides. Of course, Brees always does well at home. That means, if Tampa is going to stay in this one, they will need to start passing early and often. In the last three weeks, Brate has been targeted just as much as Mike Evans. Not only that, in the red zone, Brate actually has more receptions and TDs in that time. Brate is a cheap way to get exposure to this high scoring affair.



Fade: Jimmy Graham  - DraftKings - $4,500 / FanDuel - $6,200 [ARZ@SEA]

The Arizona Cardinals are just plain down-right stingy when it comes to TE scoring. They are by far the toughest against the position. On the season, only one TE has managed to score against the Cardinals. Not only that, only three players at the position have gone for more than 50 yards. Incredibly enough, the most yards a TE has hung on Arizona is a lowly 53. I know Graham has had a great season, but I am not taking the chance, history is just speaking out against this play in week 16.


Stack of the Week:  Drew Brees / Michael Thomas 

 

 

 

 

 

FanDuel Points Allowed Thru 15 Weeks of Games Played


FanDuel Points Allowed Thru 15 Weeks of games played




DraftKings Points Allowed Thru 15 Weeks of Games Played


DraftKings Points Allowed Thru 15 Weeks


 


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FanDuel Points Allowed Thru 14 Weeks of Games Played


FanDuel Points Allowed Thru 14 Weeks of games played




DraftKings Points Allowed Thru 14 Weeks of Games Played


DraftKings Points Allowed Thru 14 Weeks


 


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Follow us on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/pyroman1ac

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