Week 20
January 20, 2018
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Tom Brady

New England Patriots

Tom Still Terrific?


Tom Brady was first listed on the team's injury report with an Achilles injury heading in to Week 11.
Weeks 1-10: 21.2 fantasy points per game, 110.9 passer rating
Weeks 11-17: 14.2 fantasy points per game, 87.3 passer rating

Fantasy Goo: This should line up for a good week for Brady, Tennessee is 8th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, but just below average against QB’s. The Patriots are 13 point favorites on Saturday Night, if Brady doesn’t do it at home in prime-time then something is wrong.


01/09/18, 07:30 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alvin Kamara

New Orleans Saints

Primary Role Shifting


Saints have run 5 times at/inside opponent's 5-yard line over last 4 weeks (including playoffs):
Alvin Kamara 3 carries, Zach Line 1, Mark Ingram 1. Kamara was in on all 3 Saints run plays at/inside 5 vs. Panthers last week, including Line's 1-yard TD run.

Fantasy Goo: If you’re trying to decide between Kamara and Ingram for the playoff run, Kamara looks to be the much better play.


01/09/18, 07:20 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jay Ajayi

Philadelphia Eagles

It's A Trap


Jay Ajayi (knee) is practicing in full for the Divisional Round.

Fantasy Goo: Atlanta is 5th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s this year and they are more susceptible to pass-catching backs. Todd Gurley rushed 14 times for 101 yards in the Rams' Wild Card loss to the Falcons, adding four receptions for 10 additional yards. Ajayi might have been drafted before Gurley this year, but that was clearly a mistake. Ajayi has talent, but he’s far from a good option this week.


01/09/18, 07:16 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Chris Hogan

New England Patriots

Back in Action


Chris Hogan (shoulder) is expected to return for Saturday's Divisional Round game against the Titans.

Fantasy Goo: He’s going to take a couple of weeks to get in tune with the offense, I’m looking to save him until the Super Bowl if you’re in one of those one and done fantasy playoff tournaments.


01/09/18, 07:14 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Drew Brees

New Orleans Saints

Strength vs Strength


Saints RBs led NFL during regular season in receptions (9.0) and receiving yards (77.8) per game.
Vikings held opposing RBs to fewest yards per target (4.2) and 3rd-fewest yards per game (30.6).

Fantasy Goo: The Vikings have been absolutely sick in all aspects on defense this year. If the Saints are going to pull this one out it sounds like it’s going to have to be a Brees week, I’m not so sure he’s going to be the guy you want to start on the road this week.


01/09/18, 07:12 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


LeSean McCoy

Buffalo Bills

Not The Real McCoy


LeSean McCoy said if he plays Sunday, "I want to be able to cut well enough to where I don't have a lot of pain cutting. I just want to be close, or the best as far as 100 percent as I can get. The type of game like this, you got to lay it all on the line.”

Fantasy Goo: McCoy is a poor play against the Jags this week. The Jags strength on defense is against the pass (#1 in FP allowed), but they are still strong against the rush (11th). I’m not taking any Bills on fantasy playoff squads or in DFS this week.


01/04/18, 09:29 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Derrick Henry

Tennessee Titans

Arrow Pointing Down


DeMarco Murray (knee) didn't practice again Thursday. Derrick Henry show ready to go.

Fantasy Goo: The way to attack KC is through the air, they rank 9th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s. They will most likely be in negative game script. KC hasn’t allowed any team to score over 20 points in Arrowhead all year.


01/04/18, 09:27 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Julio Jones

Atlanta Falcons

No Fly Zone


Julio Jones finished 11th in NFL in red-zone targets but caught only 5 of 19. He finished 4th in targets inside 10 but only caught 4 of 11.

Fantasy Goo: The Rams have a strong pass defense, especially against outside receivers, but are second worst in fantasy points allowed to RB’s. Freeman and Coleman are the only Falcons I am considering this week.


01/04/18, 09:25 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Kenny Golladay

Detroit Lions

Under the Radar


In the first game with TJ Jones (shoulder) on IR last week, Kenny Golladay played 95% of snaps and led DET WRs with 8 targets.

Fantasy Goo: Marvin Jones has a history of shredding the Packers defense and is a solid play at $6500 on DK, but Golladay is half the price ($3300) and will probably see a similar number of targets. If Detroit had something to play for I’d be stacking the heck out of this game, but I still think it’s smart to have one of these guys in the line-up this week.


12/31/17, 09:46 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Patrick Mahomes

Kansas City Chiefs

Rookie Debut


Patrick Mahomes was 2nd in PFF’s QB Rating when kept clean in preseason. He rushed for 744 yards, 22 TDs in his last two years at Texas Tech. Denver has allowed multiple passing TDs to six-straight QBs not named Petty or Brissett.

Fantasy Goo: The rookie was supposed to take over for Alex Smith much earlier this season, but Smith and the Chief’s came out firing on all cylinders and kept the rookie on the bench. Mahomes will get his chance this week as Smith gets a week off before the playoffs. Denver may be packing it in, but they still have one of the best defenses and I expect they will play more inspired this week against a division rival.


12/31/17, 09:32 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Wayne Gallman

New York Giants

Last Man Standing


Giants will be without Shepard (neck), Engram (ribs), and King (concussion) vs. WAS. Wayne Gallman has 9, 7, 8 target counts in last three weeks.

Fantasy Goo: Washington ranks 24th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s and Gallman is $4200 on DK. Feels like a great way to save and pay up at other positions.


12/31/17, 09:21 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alex Collins

Baltimore Ravens

Burfict Situation


Bengals LB Vontaze Burfict ruled out for game Sunday at Baltimore because of shoulder injury.

Fantasy Goo: Collins becomes a solid RB1 this week. Cincinnati’s run defense is a sieve with Burfict out.


12/31/17, 09:19 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Akeem Hunt

Houston Texans

Akeem No Dream


Charcandrick West is out Sunday vs Denver with an illness. Akeem Hunt and Kareem Hunt only RBs on active roster for KC. It would be a surprise to see Kareem play much. That means a ton of Akeem Hunt and likely some De'Anthony Thomas on passing downs.

Fantasy Goo: Akeem is min price ($3000) on DK so the definition of a free-square, but there’s a reason he’s bounced around the NFL and never earned a starting role. Denver is 5th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, I’m not rostering Akeem when there are so many other options this week.


12/31/17, 09:17 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


DeAndre Hopkins

Houston Texans

Milestone Not Worth The Risk


Bill O'Brien on DeAndre Hopkins' status: 'Probably won't know up until game time'. Typically, we might classify this as coach-speak, but Hopkins has never missed a game, and is four catches away from 100 for the season. He's probably pushing hard to play.

Fantasy Goo: This is an awesome match-up for the Houston WR’s going against a very weak Indy pass defense, but there is really no reason for Hopkins to play, especially with the calf injury. At $8400 on DK he’s just way too pricey given this news. A sneaky start might be Will Fuller at $4300, he has 5 targets in each of the past three games and is coming off some difficult match-ups. Earlier in the season he was a superstar with Watson throwing the ball, but he has always had the big play in his arsenal no matter who the QB is.


12/29/17, 10:03 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Dion Lewis

New England Patriots

Vultures Are Always Flying


James White (ankle) remained limited at Thursday's practice. White was absent for last week's win over Buffalo but should be out there against the Jets in Week 17. He ranks eighth among running backs with 56 catches this year.

Fantasy Goo: Lewis dominated last week with White and Burkhead out, even though Gillislee vultured a TD. I would imagine that White playing will take away the five receptions Lewis had last week and the Jets actually have a better rush defense than the Pats week 16 opponent (Buf). The Pats will be looking to lock-up home field advantage and won’t be resting their starters, but they will probably be looking to get everyone some work as they prep for the playoffs. Gillislee appears to be nursing a hammy and is not expected to play, but let’s not forget how White performed last year in the Super Bowl.


12/29/17, 09:47 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

Pittsburgh Steelers

Stars Sitting


The Steelers Marcus Gilbert tells reporter Tim Benz that the Steelers won't play Ben Roethlisberger or Le'Veon Bell in finale vs. Cleveland. Landry Jones will be under center for Pittsburgh and Fitzgerald Toussaint and Stevan Ridley will form a thoroughly underwhelming RB committee against the Browns.

Fantasy Goo: Underwhelming is an understatement for these two backs, a highly respected fantasy website hasn’t even updated the news on these two since the pre-season and doesn’t even recognize them as being on the team. The one player of note in this is Martavis Bryant, The Alien averages over 17 ppr points per game with Landry at the helm as opposed to 8.4 ppg with other QB’s. He also has 5 TD’s in 5 home games with Landry. Granted most of this production comes from 2015 when they worked together often in the preseason, but Bryant could be a very sneaky GPP play this week.


12/29/17, 09:23 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Jacksonville Jaguars

Play To Win The Game


Despite already being locked into the AFC's No. 3 seed, Jaguars coach Doug Marrone has no plans to rest starters in Sunday's game against the Titans. "Make no mistake about it, just so there is not a lot of talk during the week: When the players come in (Wednesday), we are talking about how we are going to play to win and do everything we possibly can to win this game, period," Marrone said. "I am not even thinking about what happens beyond that, and that is the way we are going to go about our business this week."

Fantasy Goo: I think it’s crazy of him to do, but I’m sure he has Tom Coughlin in his ear feeding him that old-school philosophy. Looks like Bortles, Fournette, Westbrook and Cole will be safe plays against a Titan’s team hoping to hold on to the sixth seed in the AFC.


12/26/17, 10:00 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

Los Angeles Rams

Resting Starters


McVay hints that there will be Rams starters “who won’t play at all” on Sunday. The Rams are already locked into either the No. 3 or 4 seed in the NFC and will host a Wild Card round playoff game.

Fantasy Goo: Gurley, Goff, Woods, all sitting this week? That’s going to destroy so many hopes and dreams for teams that rode Gurley all year.


12/26/17, 09:58 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


DeMarco Murray

Tennessee Titans

Grind It Out


Mike Mularkey said he's not ruling DeMarco Murray out just yet. He's day-to-day. The Titans are holding out hope to have him in limited role.

Fantasy Goo: They are really grinding him into the dirt if they play him this week. I didn’t see the injury, but it sounded pretty ugly from sources in the know. Keep away from him in whatever format you are playing this week, I’m giving Derick Henry a solid upgrade as the Titans are trying to hold on to the final playoff spot in the AFC.


12/26/17, 05:17 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Philadelphia Eagles

All Locked Up


Pederson on playing Foles vs. Cowboys: “I’ve got to get him as many reps as he can and then be smart about it. Obviously, we have a lot of football left. Our season is really just beginning, quite honestly. We’ll be smart.”

Fantasy Goo: This is why you don’t play a championship game in week 17. I’m staying away from the Eagles regular starters, pretty much across the board, as they have a first round bye all locked up. Guys like Blount, Clement, and Nelson Agholor might have some DFS appeal, but we have to get closer to Sunday to see what they plan on doing.


12/26/17, 05:15 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Mark Ingram is due for a nice game in DFS for Week 17

The Daily Dos & Don'ts - Week 17 DFS Advice (2016)

Posted by d-Rx on 12/30/16

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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Stagg Party's Week 17 DFS Picks

 

 

Pillar: Aaron Rodgers - DraftKings - $7,700 / FanDuel - $8,800   [GB@DET]

 

Rodgers is coming off his best game of the season, in which he did it all. Rodgers passed for over 300 yards, threw four touchdowns, and rushed for another one for a huge fantasy score. Despite the “slow start” to his season, Aaron Rodgers needs just ten fantasy points to have the second best fantasy season of his career, and that looks primed to be blown away. We have seen the lack of a true consistent run game force the Packers to the air and that could happen again as besides last week against Dallas, the Lions have had a strong rush defense all season long. All the Green bay touchdowns are likely to go through Aaron Rodgers and that makes him one of the best plays of the week, plus he is just locked in. The Packers and Lions may know that this is a winner take all game or a that they are both in at the time of playing, but even then this game will have division winning applications and answer the question of which team will host a home game next week while the other could have to go on the road.

 

Mid Priced Core Piece: - Mark Ingram - DraftKings - $5,600 / FanDuel - $6,100 [NO@ATL]

 

Mark Ingram is coming off a nice week last week in which he rushed for 90 yards and 2 touchdowns. Most importantly, he out snapped Tim Hightower 48 to 15 last week and will look to have the first 1,000 yard rushing season of his career. Ingram needs 59 yards to hit that mark and has a good matchup against the Atlanta Falcons who allow the 11th most fantasy points to opposing running backs on the season. This game also has one of the biggest totals of the season at 56.5 points. New Orleans is a veteran team and we have seen the legendary shootouts between these two teams in the past, so I will have a ton of Ingram in my lineups.

 

Low Cost Dart Throw: Jacquizz Rodgers - DraftKings - $4,900 / FanDuel - $5,200 [CAR@TB]

 

Quiz looks primed to be the lead back again for the Buccaneers in Week 17 as Doug Martin is starting to serve a four game suspension for PED’s after last weeks surprise inactive. Charles Sims was also placed on IR ceding a big workload over to Quiz. The Buccaneers will also be playing with a sliver of hope for the playoffs in an early game so they could ride Rodgers early and often. In games without Martin and Sims, Rodgers saw big workloads both running and receiving. At his price, Quiz is hard to top in terms of expected workload. The Panthers don’t have much to play for at this time, and their defense has shown it over the last five weeks allowing an average of 80 yards rushing and a touchdown per game.

 

Fade: DeMarco Murray - DraftKings - $6,300 / FanDuel - $7,800   [HOU@TEN]

 

DeMarco Murray is coming off a great season, but now the Titans are out of it. Murray doesn’t have any real milestones to hit and his quarterback is already done for the year so the Titans could take it easy on him. I could take the easy route and tell you not to play anyone who is out, but Murray seems like a guy who could be in, will be in a pretty decent spot, and has been awesome this year, but I just think they could give more to Derrick Henry then we expect, to see if he can handle a big workload at the NFL level. This one could bite me, but I won’t be rostering any DeMarco this week.

 

Stack of the Week: Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson [GB@DET]

 

 

 

PyromaniacMo's Week 17 DFS Picks


 

Pillar: Devonta Freeman- DraftKings - $7,000 / FanDuel - $8,000 [NO@ATL]

Atlanta still has skin in the game as they are attempting to get a first round bye. Not only that, they are also expected to score more than any other NFL team according to Vegas. This game could easily be one to target as a shootout is likely. Atlanta opened as 6.5 favorites. Freeman is almost impervious to game script as he is heavily targeted out of the backfield as well. According to Pyro’s own Positional Points Against chart, only three teams are giving up more FF Points to opposing RB1s. Not only that, the Saints have surrendered the 4th most rushing TDs this season. In their last meeting earlier this year, Freeman had his second best day of the season putting up just over 29 Draft Kings points. With the amount of scoring expected, that type of day seems well within his grasp yet again.

 

 

Mid Priced Core Piece: Golden Tate - DraftKings - $6,600 / FanDuel - $5,700 [GB@DET]

This is a great cash play as Tate has been a solid producer as of late. In the last five weeks, he is Stafford’s security blanket. He has amassed 47 targets and 460 yards in that span. Green Bay has allowed the 5th most WR FF Points in that time. Tate will matchup against Damarious Randall, who according to PFF, grades out at 116 out of a total of 119 corners. The Packers have been slipping on defense, heck in the last two games they have allowed three different receivers to amass triple-digit yardage days against them. This game will decide the NFC North Divisional champ, and if Detroit is to get it done, a large percentage of their offense should flow through Golden Tate.

 

 

Low Cost Dart Throw: Dion Lewis - DraftKings - $4,000 / FanDuel - $5,200 [NE@MIA]

On the season, the Patriots are perfect on the road. Since Lewis has come back from injury, the team is really involving him in the offense. In the past two weeks, Lewis has more first half carries than Blount, 20 to 12. The Dolphins are already going to the playoffs, so you could easily see them trying to get a bit of rest where they can. The Patriots on the other hand are still trying to lock up home field and a first round bye. That is something that seems achievable. In the last five weeks, the Dolphins have surrendered the 4th most rushing yards, the second most PPR points to the position, and no one has given up as many receptions or yards to backs out of the backfield.

 

Fade:  Ezekiel Elliott - DraftKings - $7,400 / FanDuel - $8,800 [DAL@PHI]

The Cowboys cannot improve their situation any, win or lose. So, they are going to the playoffs, and this week’s game means virtually nothing. Would you play your studs in that situation? The coaching staff has already come out and said McFadden will be getting more work than normal, and they have hinted at more work than Zeke himself. It is certainly the smart move. This is precisely the reason you should target only team’s that have a vested interest in playing Week 17. I generally plan out my bankroll on a 16 game outlook. As far as I am concerned, this week is just for kicks.

 

Stack of the Week:   Matt Ryan / Devanta Freeman/ Mohamed Sanu


 

 

 

Houdini's Week 17 DFS Picks

 

Pillar: Aaron Rodgers – Draft Kings $7,700 / Fan Duel $8,800 [GB@DET]

Rodgers is playing in one of the meaningful games this week, and depending on what happens earlier in the day could make it a very crucial game. If Washington beats the Giants then the loser of this game is out of the playoffs. Rodgers got back on track last week throwing for 347 yards and four touchdowns against the Vikings. He also threw four touchdowns in his last meeting against the Lions. The Packers are rolling and the Lions are reeling, and with the weather not being a factor there should be a lot of offense in this game with Rodgers leading the way.

 

Mid Priced Core Piece: Golden Tate – Draft Kings $6,600 / Fan Duel $5,700 [DET vs. GB]

The Lions are in a fight for the division and possibly a fight for their playoff life against the Packers this week. Green Bay is going to bring a lot of offense to this game, and the Lions are going to have to keep the pace. Golden Tate is the most trusted target for Matthew Stafford and should see the majority of targets this week against the Packers poor secondary. Tate has been targeted 40 times over his last four games, and should see at least 10 targets this week.  

 

Low Cost Dart Throw: Fitzgerald Toussaint – Draft Kings $4,300 / Fan Duel $4,500 [PIT vs. CLE]

Everyone is thinking that DeAngelo Williams will be the main man this week for the Steelers, but I would rather take my chances with Toussaint. Williams is coming back from a knee injury, and I believe they are going to take it slow with him, especially since they will want him to be healthy for the playoffs. The Browns are atrocious against the run and Fitzgerald is going to do a lot of damage at a low cost this week.

 

Fade: Ezekiel Elliott – Draft Kings $7,400 / Fan Duel $8,800 [DAL@PHI]

The Cowboys have nothing to play for this week, and no matter what they say about playing their starters there is no reason to risk injury to Elliott in a meaningless game with the playoffs right around the corner. I don’t expect him to play more than the first quarter at most, and will be spending my money on other players.

 

Stack of the Week:  Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson [GB@DET] 

 

 

 

 

FanDuel Points Allowed Thru 16 Weeks of Games Played


FanDuel Points Allowed Thru 16 Weeks of games played




DraftKings Points Allowed Thru 16 Weeks of Games Played


DraftKings Points Allowed Thru 16 Weeks


 


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