Week 20
January 20, 2018
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Tom Brady

New England Patriots

Tom Still Terrific?


Tom Brady was first listed on the team's injury report with an Achilles injury heading in to Week 11.
Weeks 1-10: 21.2 fantasy points per game, 110.9 passer rating
Weeks 11-17: 14.2 fantasy points per game, 87.3 passer rating

Fantasy Goo: This should line up for a good week for Brady, Tennessee is 8th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, but just below average against QB’s. The Patriots are 13 point favorites on Saturday Night, if Brady doesn’t do it at home in prime-time then something is wrong.


01/09/18, 07:30 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alvin Kamara

New Orleans Saints

Primary Role Shifting


Saints have run 5 times at/inside opponent's 5-yard line over last 4 weeks (including playoffs):
Alvin Kamara 3 carries, Zach Line 1, Mark Ingram 1. Kamara was in on all 3 Saints run plays at/inside 5 vs. Panthers last week, including Line's 1-yard TD run.

Fantasy Goo: If you’re trying to decide between Kamara and Ingram for the playoff run, Kamara looks to be the much better play.


01/09/18, 07:20 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jay Ajayi

Philadelphia Eagles

It's A Trap


Jay Ajayi (knee) is practicing in full for the Divisional Round.

Fantasy Goo: Atlanta is 5th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s this year and they are more susceptible to pass-catching backs. Todd Gurley rushed 14 times for 101 yards in the Rams' Wild Card loss to the Falcons, adding four receptions for 10 additional yards. Ajayi might have been drafted before Gurley this year, but that was clearly a mistake. Ajayi has talent, but he’s far from a good option this week.


01/09/18, 07:16 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Chris Hogan

New England Patriots

Back in Action


Chris Hogan (shoulder) is expected to return for Saturday's Divisional Round game against the Titans.

Fantasy Goo: He’s going to take a couple of weeks to get in tune with the offense, I’m looking to save him until the Super Bowl if you’re in one of those one and done fantasy playoff tournaments.


01/09/18, 07:14 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Drew Brees

New Orleans Saints

Strength vs Strength


Saints RBs led NFL during regular season in receptions (9.0) and receiving yards (77.8) per game.
Vikings held opposing RBs to fewest yards per target (4.2) and 3rd-fewest yards per game (30.6).

Fantasy Goo: The Vikings have been absolutely sick in all aspects on defense this year. If the Saints are going to pull this one out it sounds like it’s going to have to be a Brees week, I’m not so sure he’s going to be the guy you want to start on the road this week.


01/09/18, 07:12 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


LeSean McCoy

Buffalo Bills

Not The Real McCoy


LeSean McCoy said if he plays Sunday, "I want to be able to cut well enough to where I don't have a lot of pain cutting. I just want to be close, or the best as far as 100 percent as I can get. The type of game like this, you got to lay it all on the line.”

Fantasy Goo: McCoy is a poor play against the Jags this week. The Jags strength on defense is against the pass (#1 in FP allowed), but they are still strong against the rush (11th). I’m not taking any Bills on fantasy playoff squads or in DFS this week.


01/04/18, 09:29 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Derrick Henry

Tennessee Titans

Arrow Pointing Down


DeMarco Murray (knee) didn't practice again Thursday. Derrick Henry show ready to go.

Fantasy Goo: The way to attack KC is through the air, they rank 9th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s. They will most likely be in negative game script. KC hasn’t allowed any team to score over 20 points in Arrowhead all year.


01/04/18, 09:27 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Julio Jones

Atlanta Falcons

No Fly Zone


Julio Jones finished 11th in NFL in red-zone targets but caught only 5 of 19. He finished 4th in targets inside 10 but only caught 4 of 11.

Fantasy Goo: The Rams have a strong pass defense, especially against outside receivers, but are second worst in fantasy points allowed to RB’s. Freeman and Coleman are the only Falcons I am considering this week.


01/04/18, 09:25 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Kenny Golladay

Detroit Lions

Under the Radar


In the first game with TJ Jones (shoulder) on IR last week, Kenny Golladay played 95% of snaps and led DET WRs with 8 targets.

Fantasy Goo: Marvin Jones has a history of shredding the Packers defense and is a solid play at $6500 on DK, but Golladay is half the price ($3300) and will probably see a similar number of targets. If Detroit had something to play for I’d be stacking the heck out of this game, but I still think it’s smart to have one of these guys in the line-up this week.


12/31/17, 09:46 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Patrick Mahomes

Kansas City Chiefs

Rookie Debut


Patrick Mahomes was 2nd in PFF’s QB Rating when kept clean in preseason. He rushed for 744 yards, 22 TDs in his last two years at Texas Tech. Denver has allowed multiple passing TDs to six-straight QBs not named Petty or Brissett.

Fantasy Goo: The rookie was supposed to take over for Alex Smith much earlier this season, but Smith and the Chief’s came out firing on all cylinders and kept the rookie on the bench. Mahomes will get his chance this week as Smith gets a week off before the playoffs. Denver may be packing it in, but they still have one of the best defenses and I expect they will play more inspired this week against a division rival.


12/31/17, 09:32 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Wayne Gallman

New York Giants

Last Man Standing


Giants will be without Shepard (neck), Engram (ribs), and King (concussion) vs. WAS. Wayne Gallman has 9, 7, 8 target counts in last three weeks.

Fantasy Goo: Washington ranks 24th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s and Gallman is $4200 on DK. Feels like a great way to save and pay up at other positions.


12/31/17, 09:21 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alex Collins

Baltimore Ravens

Burfict Situation


Bengals LB Vontaze Burfict ruled out for game Sunday at Baltimore because of shoulder injury.

Fantasy Goo: Collins becomes a solid RB1 this week. Cincinnati’s run defense is a sieve with Burfict out.


12/31/17, 09:19 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Akeem Hunt

Houston Texans

Akeem No Dream


Charcandrick West is out Sunday vs Denver with an illness. Akeem Hunt and Kareem Hunt only RBs on active roster for KC. It would be a surprise to see Kareem play much. That means a ton of Akeem Hunt and likely some De'Anthony Thomas on passing downs.

Fantasy Goo: Akeem is min price ($3000) on DK so the definition of a free-square, but there’s a reason he’s bounced around the NFL and never earned a starting role. Denver is 5th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, I’m not rostering Akeem when there are so many other options this week.


12/31/17, 09:17 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


DeAndre Hopkins

Houston Texans

Milestone Not Worth The Risk


Bill O'Brien on DeAndre Hopkins' status: 'Probably won't know up until game time'. Typically, we might classify this as coach-speak, but Hopkins has never missed a game, and is four catches away from 100 for the season. He's probably pushing hard to play.

Fantasy Goo: This is an awesome match-up for the Houston WR’s going against a very weak Indy pass defense, but there is really no reason for Hopkins to play, especially with the calf injury. At $8400 on DK he’s just way too pricey given this news. A sneaky start might be Will Fuller at $4300, he has 5 targets in each of the past three games and is coming off some difficult match-ups. Earlier in the season he was a superstar with Watson throwing the ball, but he has always had the big play in his arsenal no matter who the QB is.


12/29/17, 10:03 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Dion Lewis

New England Patriots

Vultures Are Always Flying


James White (ankle) remained limited at Thursday's practice. White was absent for last week's win over Buffalo but should be out there against the Jets in Week 17. He ranks eighth among running backs with 56 catches this year.

Fantasy Goo: Lewis dominated last week with White and Burkhead out, even though Gillislee vultured a TD. I would imagine that White playing will take away the five receptions Lewis had last week and the Jets actually have a better rush defense than the Pats week 16 opponent (Buf). The Pats will be looking to lock-up home field advantage and won’t be resting their starters, but they will probably be looking to get everyone some work as they prep for the playoffs. Gillislee appears to be nursing a hammy and is not expected to play, but let’s not forget how White performed last year in the Super Bowl.


12/29/17, 09:47 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

Pittsburgh Steelers

Stars Sitting


The Steelers Marcus Gilbert tells reporter Tim Benz that the Steelers won't play Ben Roethlisberger or Le'Veon Bell in finale vs. Cleveland. Landry Jones will be under center for Pittsburgh and Fitzgerald Toussaint and Stevan Ridley will form a thoroughly underwhelming RB committee against the Browns.

Fantasy Goo: Underwhelming is an understatement for these two backs, a highly respected fantasy website hasn’t even updated the news on these two since the pre-season and doesn’t even recognize them as being on the team. The one player of note in this is Martavis Bryant, The Alien averages over 17 ppr points per game with Landry at the helm as opposed to 8.4 ppg with other QB’s. He also has 5 TD’s in 5 home games with Landry. Granted most of this production comes from 2015 when they worked together often in the preseason, but Bryant could be a very sneaky GPP play this week.


12/29/17, 09:23 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Jacksonville Jaguars

Play To Win The Game


Despite already being locked into the AFC's No. 3 seed, Jaguars coach Doug Marrone has no plans to rest starters in Sunday's game against the Titans. "Make no mistake about it, just so there is not a lot of talk during the week: When the players come in (Wednesday), we are talking about how we are going to play to win and do everything we possibly can to win this game, period," Marrone said. "I am not even thinking about what happens beyond that, and that is the way we are going to go about our business this week."

Fantasy Goo: I think it’s crazy of him to do, but I’m sure he has Tom Coughlin in his ear feeding him that old-school philosophy. Looks like Bortles, Fournette, Westbrook and Cole will be safe plays against a Titan’s team hoping to hold on to the sixth seed in the AFC.


12/26/17, 10:00 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

Los Angeles Rams

Resting Starters


McVay hints that there will be Rams starters “who won’t play at all” on Sunday. The Rams are already locked into either the No. 3 or 4 seed in the NFC and will host a Wild Card round playoff game.

Fantasy Goo: Gurley, Goff, Woods, all sitting this week? That’s going to destroy so many hopes and dreams for teams that rode Gurley all year.


12/26/17, 09:58 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


DeMarco Murray

Tennessee Titans

Grind It Out


Mike Mularkey said he's not ruling DeMarco Murray out just yet. He's day-to-day. The Titans are holding out hope to have him in limited role.

Fantasy Goo: They are really grinding him into the dirt if they play him this week. I didn’t see the injury, but it sounded pretty ugly from sources in the know. Keep away from him in whatever format you are playing this week, I’m giving Derick Henry a solid upgrade as the Titans are trying to hold on to the final playoff spot in the AFC.


12/26/17, 05:17 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Philadelphia Eagles

All Locked Up


Pederson on playing Foles vs. Cowboys: “I’ve got to get him as many reps as he can and then be smart about it. Obviously, we have a lot of football left. Our season is really just beginning, quite honestly. We’ll be smart.”

Fantasy Goo: This is why you don’t play a championship game in week 17. I’m staying away from the Eagles regular starters, pretty much across the board, as they have a first round bye all locked up. Guys like Blount, Clement, and Nelson Agholor might have some DFS appeal, but we have to get closer to Sunday to see what they plan on doing.


12/26/17, 05:15 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Lamar Miller of the Houston Texans is the best RB to play in Week 1 of the NFL playoffs for DFS says Stagg Party

The Daily Dos & Don'ts - Week 18 DFS Advice (Wild Card Playoffs 2016)

Posted by d-Rx on 01/06/17

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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Stagg Party's DFS Picks Wild Card Playoffs

 

 

Pillar: Le’Veon Bell - DraftKings - $10,300 / FanDuel - $10,300   [MIA@PIT]

Le’Veon Bell looks like the best player on this slate of games, with his teammate Antonio Brown arguably his greatest competition. Bell had arguably his worst game of the season against the Dolphins earlier this season, notching 108 total yards as the Steelers got smashed 30-15 in Miami. Luckily for you, everyone knows that the Steelers play better at home, giving him huge upside this week as Pittsburgh is currently a ten-point favorite. In DraftKings scoring, Bell is also more likely to be heavily involved in the passing game early giving him a high floor with his huge ceiling, hence the 10K price. It is hard to fade the running back who has the highest raw point total of all of them on the slate.

 

Mid Priced Core Piece: - Lamar Miller - DraftKings - $6,100 / FanDuel - $7,100 [OAK@HOU]

Lamar Miller is coming off of being out in Week 16 and was held out again in Week 17 with an ankle injury for this exact time of the year. The Texans will again be starting Brock Osweiler, which means their gameplan will be to hide them as much as they can, and that means riding Lamar Miller. In seven games at home this season, Miller averaged 22 rushes for 85 yards and scored three touchdowns and adding 2.5 catches a game to take him over 100 scrimmage yards a game at home. The last time these two teams played, Miller rushed 24 times for 104 yards and a score. The Raiders give up the 8th most fantasy points to opposing running backs, and Miller is now completely healthy for the first time since Week 1.

 

Low Cost Dart Throw: Paul Perkins - DraftKings - $4,100 / FanDuel - $5,900 [NYG@GB]

Paul Perkins looks to have taken the reigns of the Giants lead back from Rashad Jennings in the final game of the season after rushing for their first 100-yard game of the season. Perkins rushed for 102 yards on 21 carries and over his last three games has averaged 16 carries a game at a 4.5-yard per carry clip. Perkins has yet to score a touchdown this season either through the air or on the ground, but the Playoffs are a good a time as any. In PPR leagues, the Packers have allowed a running back over 10 fantasy points in each of the last three weeks. Perkins has big play ability and at his price, a long touchdown can pay off big time.

 

Fade: Thomas Rawls - DraftKings - $5,700 / FanDuel - $7,100   [DET@SEA]

Thomas Rawls basically has had one good game of the season, back in Week 13 against the Carolina Panthers. Since then, Rawls carried it 49 times over four games and averaged a miniscule 2.5 yards per carry with one score. That includes a tilt against one of the worst rushing defenses of the last 50 years, in the San Francisco 49ers. Rawls can’t seem to shake free from his offensive line and defenses are smashing him in the backfield. On the season, Detroit was tough against opposing running backs and with how bad this run game has been. Lets just saw I am running away from Thomas Rawls.

 

Stack of the Week: Lamar Miller and Texans Defense [OAK@HOU]



 

Mo’s DFS Picks Wild Card Playoffs

 

 

Pillar: Zach Zenner - DraftKings - $4,500 / FanDuel - $6,200 [DET@SEA]

Look, Lev Bell is probably my pillar, but that is almost a given. Besides Bell, and almost because of him, you need some cheaper plays. Zenner gives you an affordable back that will get volume. In the last five weeks, he leads all Lions backs in every statistical category including receiving numbers out of the backfield. He is their red zone guy. Zenner has three TDs in the last two games. In Week 16 he played in 76% of snaps, last week he played in 97%. It is hard to find a better volume to dollar ratio. In fact, I even like Zenner in cash games this week.

 

Mid Priced Core Piece: Doug Baldwin - DraftKings - $7,000 / FanDuel - $6,900 [DET@SEA]

Seattle does not have the best offensive line. Wilson could very well be under duress and need to get the ball out quick. If so, Baldwin has the lowest average depth of target on the team, meaning he runs shorter routes. Plus, he plays in the slot. Detroit is down their two top corners. Even when they were there, it was the weakest spot on their secondary. Now they will be forced to start 3rd or even a 4th string secondary guy, that likely, does not normally play slot corner. Baldwin tends to ramp up his play later in the season and he will be playing against a slot corner that does not even have a ranking in PFF. This matchup could be a disaster for the Lions.

 

Low Cost Dart Throw: Alex Collins- DraftKings - $4,500 / FanDuel - $5,800 [DET@SEA]

While Collins is the same price as Zenner, I consider him more of a GPP play. Zenner does not have any competition. But, comparing Collins with Rawls, I think many folks will be surprised. One, you want a Seahawks RB as this game should see lots of running; Seattle is favored by just over a TD. In the last couple of weeks, Collins is far more efficient. Collins is averaging 5.6 yards per touch to Rawls 1.4. Not only that, Collins is getting more volume. In the same time span, he has 3 more touches. In fact, Rawls is not even involved in the passing game, but Collins is. The bottom line is, for a very cheap price, you get a RB on a team expected to run a great deal. Not only is Collins more efficient with his touches, he is getting more of them. He is your Seahawks RB to own.

 

Fade: Aaron Rodgers  - DraftKings - $7,900 / FanDuel - $8,600 [NYG@GB]

Aaron Rodgers has been the man in fantasy as of late. That is precisely why I think he will be the highest owned QB. I want to leverage those ownership numbers. He has a very tough matchup against the Giants. According to PFF, DRC and Janoris Jenkins are both ranked in the top 10. No other defense this weekend can boast two corners ranked so high. Football Outsiders gives the Giants a ranking of 4th against the pass, and when you look at their weighted DVOA (which accounts more for recent games than earlier ones) the Giants are 2nd in the NFL against the pass. They are a sneaky good D that could account for INTs, if indeed Rodgers has a subpar game, just think of how many owners you can vault over.

 

Stack of the Week: Big Ben, Le'Veon Bell



 

ØC's DFS Picks Wild Card Playoffs

 


Pillar: WR, Odell Beckham Jr. / NYG @ GB / Draft Kings $9,100 /  FanDuel $8,900

Odell has arguably the easiest match-up and situation for all receivers this Wild Card weekend. Ignoring Week 17, Beckham put up double digit fantasy points in seven of the last eight games. This includes seven touchdowns and two games over 100 yards receiving. His yardage total could be better, but Eli Manning is having an off year and not getting the ball to Odell downfield accurately. Despite this, the Giants will need the passing game to keep pace with Rodgers and the Packer offense. Luckily, Green Bay is dead last in defending fantasy receivers. They have allowed double digit points to every receiver with six or more targets in the last three weeks.

 

 

Mid Price Core: RB, Jay Ajayi / MIA @ PIT / DraftKings $6,800 / FanDuel $8,300

Jay Ajayi will be the main weapon for Miami against the Steelers in Pittsburgh. I am not usually a proponent of a rushing attack going on the road in a hostile environment like Heinze Field, but the Dolphins cannot rely on Matt Moore to pull off the upset. Ajayi will be used in the passing game as well, making him more important in PPR formats like DraftKings and FanDuel. In Week 6, Ajayi ripped off 204 rushing yards and two touchdowns against the Steelers. Obviously, the odds of a repeat performance are zero, but if Miami wants to keep the ball out of the hands of Bell, Brown, and Big Ben, they’ll have to win time of possession. Using Ajayi will also open up play action sequences where Moore can hit Stills, Landry, or Parker down field. Either way, Jay is the pillar of this offense with a history of major fantasy production.

 

 

Dart Throw: RB, Alex Collins / SEA vs DET / Draft Kings $4,500 / FanDuel $5,800

Thomas Rawls is bad at football and often injured. He should be 100% back from his most recent shoulder injury and facing a fairly stout Detroit rush defense at home. However, since his only 100+ yard rushing performance this season back in Week 13, Rawls has averaged just 2.5 yards per carry with only one score. Alex Collins on the other hand, averages 5.1 yards per rush over his last three contests. If Seattle comes out struggling to establish a rushing attack, look for Pete Carrol to get Collins into the game more often. You’ll need Alex to get at least 10 touches to remain fantasy relevant, but I see this as a battle between who can control the line of scrimmage. You could do worse for the cost.

 

 

Fade: The Entire Oakland Offense

I think it’s safe to say we all miss Derek Carr. It would be somewhat okay to swap Matt McGloin in and hope for comparable numbers from guys like Crabtree and Cooper, but McGloin will not be playing in this game due to injury. Third string QB Connor Cook will get the first start of his career on the road against a fantasy defense that is top 4 in defending quarterbacks, receivers, and tight ends. This is a nightmare scenario for Oakland and I see no player worth their price tag.

 

 

Stack: Jay Ajayi and Jarvis Landry (45.8 points combined against the Steelers in Week 6)


 

 

Houdini's DFS Picks Wild Card Playoffs

 

  

Pillar: Le’Veon Bell – Draft Kings $10,300 / Fan Duel $10,300 [PIT vs. MIA]

This is a ridiculous price for Bell, but there are not many options this week, and there are plenty of mid-range players that spending for him makes sense. Bell has been on a tear since Week 11, averaging 182 total yards per game, with seven touchdowns in those six games. Miami allows 140 rushing yards per game, so the Bell should be rung early and often in this matchup.

 

Mid Priced Core Piece: Doug Baldwin – Draft Kings $7,000 / Fan Duel $6,900 [SEA vs. DET]

Baldwin has not been playing winning football as of late, but he is still the main outside threat for the Seahawks. The Lions allowed 72.7% of passes to be completed this year, which was the worst rate in NFL history, and should allow Baldwin a high conversion rate and a much higher upside this week.

 

Low Cost Dart Throw: Paul Perkins – Draft Kings $4,100 / Fan Duel $5,900 [NYG@GB]

Perkins is coming off his first 100-yard rushing game of his career and will look to carry that momentum into this meeting with the Packers. The Giants may want to lean on the running game to keep the ball out of Aaron Rodgers hands, and Perkins is the big play threat out of the backfield. He could also see more work as a receiver if the Giants fall behind. If you spend up for Bell, you can do a nice job matching him up with Perkins.

 

Fade: Latavius Murray – Draft Kings $5,000 / Fan Duel $6,700 [OAK@HOU]

Murray has been unimpressive in his final three weeks of the season. He only ran for 132 yards with no touchdowns in those three games. He faces a Texans defense that was 5th best overall in fantasy points allowed, and this game has the lowest over/under of any game this week. With Connor Cook under center you may think they will lean on the running game, but the Raiders have been featuring DeAndre Washington, so he will still be splitting carries on an offense that is going to have a lot of three and outs.

 

Stack of the Week:  Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams [GB vs. NYG]

 

 

 

 

 

FanDuel Points Allowed During the 2016 Regular Season


FanDuel Points Allowed During the 2016 Regular Season




DraftKings Points Allowed During the 2016 Regular Season


DraftKings Points Allowed During the 2016 NFL Season


 


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The Daily Dos & Don'ts - Week 17 DFS Advice (2016)