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May 22, 2018
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Eric Ebron

Detroit Lions

Ebron Could Use Some Luck


Colts signed TE Eric Ebron, formerly of the Lions, to a two-year contract. Coach Frank Reich called Ebron an "elite tight end."

The last time we saw Andrew Luck healthy (2016), the Colts used 2+ TE sets at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL and had the 6th-highest target share to TEs.


04/01/18, 11:32 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Carlos Hyde

San Francisco 49ers

Hyde and Seek


Browns agreed to terms with RB Carlos Hyde, formerly of the 49ers, on a three-year, $15 million contract.

Obtaining Hyde has several trickle-down effects; first it replaces Crowell who signed with the Jets, it probably diminishes Duke Johnson’s value a bit. Hyde is a better all-around back than Crowell was and will certainly take over the goal-line work seeing that he’s got 20+ pounds on Duke. It also reduces the likelihood that Cleveland takes Saquon Barkley with the 4th pick in the draft. They will most likely look to draft a defensive player (Chubb) or trade down again.


04/01/18, 11:28 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jerick McKinnon

Minnesota Vikings

McKinnon Goes West For Gold-Rush


49ers agreed to terms with RB Jerick McKinnon, formerly of the Vikings, on a four-year, $30 million contract.

McKinnon averaged a ho-hum 3.8 yards a carry for the Vikings and scored three rushing touchdowns. By contrast, San Francisco's former lead runner, Carlos Hyde, averaged 3.9 yards an attempt in 2017 and had eight rushing touchdowns.

It appears as though Shanahan is enamored with McKinnon's athletic metrics, but I'm not so sure he was "pounding the table" to get him. This move could push the Niner's to cut Joe Williams.


04/01/18, 11:12 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.sacbee.com


Mike Wallace

Baltimore Ravens

Eagles Keep Improving


Eagles signed WR Mike Wallace to a one-year contract.
Mike Wallace can still move posting a top five max speed among wide receivers last season. He will fill the void left by Torrey Smith as a speed vertical threat.


04/01/18, 11:08 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Terrelle Pryor

Washington Redskins

Jets Searching For Weapons


Jets agreed to terms with WR Terrelle Pryor, formerly of Washington and Cleveland.

Second year in a row on a new team doesn’t really help Pryor's cause, but I like the idea of him on the field with Teddy Bridgewater at some point. I would imagine, with some creativity, the Jets could really design some innovative gadget plays.
The Jets receiving corps really looks like a bunch of question marks at this point though, no telling what the week-to-week outcome will be with these guys.
Jermaine Kearse: 65 catches, 810 yards, 5 touchdowns (2017)
Robby Anderson: 63 catches, 941 yards, 7 touchdowns (2017)
Quincy Enunwa: 58 catches, 857 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)
Terrelle Pryor: 77 catches, 1007 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)


04/01/18, 11:04 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Carlos Henderson

Denver Broncos

Sleeper Watch


Broncos coach Vance Joseph said the team is "counting on" Carlos Henderson making an impact in 2018.

If you are paying attention to Staggs projections there is plenty of opportunity for Henderson to step into a solid number of targets in the slot. Henderson was hindered by injury and awful QB play last year. Being drafted in the 18th round or later in best-ball leagues, Henderson is the late round flyer that should be on your radar.


04/01/18, 11:00 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.denverpost.com


Ben Watson

Baltimore Ravens

Watson Returns To Big Easy


Saints signed TE Ben Watson, formerly of the Ravens, to a one-year contract.

Watson had 74 catches on 110 targets for 825 yards and 6 TD’s when he was with the Saints in 2015. After missing 2016 he had a pretty good year with Baltimore last year despite an anemic offense, with 61 catches on 79 targets for 522 yards and 4 TD’s. He’s not a bad late round flyer TE. He’s basically free right now, but I expect by the time the season starts he’ll be being drafted within the top 20 at the position.


04/01/18, 10:54 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jeff Janis

Green Bay Packers

Janis Truthers Challenged


Browns officially signed former Packers’ WR Jeff Janis.
The combine superstar never amounted to anything in Green Bay, I highly doubt Cleveland is the place for him to finally break-out.


04/01/18, 10:50 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Thomas Rawls

Seattle Seahawks

Jets Sign Rawls


Rawls had five RB1 games in 2015, one in 2016, and has been a disappointment since. He’s not worth your time in fantasy, but he could cause enough disruption in the Jets backfield to cut any upside we might have hoped for from Isaiah Crowell.


04/01/18, 10:48 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.newyorkjets.com


Allen Robinson

Jacksonville Jaguars

Coo coo ca choo Mr. Robinson


Bears signed WR Allen Robinson, formerly of the Jaguars, to a three-year, $42 million contract.

This is a great move for Robinson and Chicago. Nagy’s offense and the young QB, Trubiski, should benefit Robinson at least as much as Bortles did, and Chicago gets the top WR in free agency.
Everyone on the team will be in a new scheme so there will be an adjustment, but as they start to gel we should see a big second half. Robinson’s recovery from a torn ACL doesn’t scare me away from drafting him in the late third/early fourth, his current MFL10 ADP is 43 overall while his Draft app ADP is 59.9. I expect Robinson to be somewhere in the range of 75 receptions, for 1100 yards and 8 TD’s.


03/24/18, 08:25 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Sammy Watkins

Los Angeles Rams

KC Building Strong Air Attack


Chiefs signed Sammy Watkins, formerly of the Rams, to a three-year, $48 million contract.

I’m a big Sammy truther so getting him in the 5th or 6th round is a pure power move. His current Draft app ADP of 87.1 is an absolute steal, his MFL10 ADP of 69.5 is still a great value in my opinion. There are quite a few options for high targets in KC so I don’t expect him to see the 128 targets he saw his rookie year, but he should definitely see more than the 70 he saw last year. He’ll have an entire offseason to work with the near-rookie QB, and at age 25 he should have enough burst left to have a 70 catch, 1050 yd, 8TD line. For his career he has 16 receptions on 30 targets for 12 TD’s in the Red Zone, and 9 receptions on 13 targets, for 8 TD’s inside the opponents 10. He should be the exact WR the Chiefs need to get over the hump. As a team the Chiefs were 34/75 for 13 TD’s in the Red-Zone last year and 12/24 for 10 TD inside the 10.


03/24/18, 08:19 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.pro-football-reference.com


Kirk Cousins

Washington Redskins

Vikings Like That


Kirk Cousins plans to sign a three-year, fully-guaranteed contract from the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday. The deal is believed to be for around $86 million, and reports are it will be fully-guaranteed, a landmark for an NFL free agent.

Should be a lateral move for Kirk as far as fantasy, better WR’s, but fewer passes thrown in this offense. A healthy Dalvin Cook should be able to run out the clock if they are up in the second half of games and take the ball out of Cousins hands near the end zone. It should also help the overall efficiency of the offense so all in all it increases his floor, but cuts any garbage-time production we’ve seen with Washington. Kyle Rudolph becomes a big benefactor here, Cousins loves his TE, especially near the end-zone.


03/24/18, 08:16 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Case Keenum

Minnesota Vikings

Denver Makes Case


Broncos signed QB Case Keenum, formerly of the Vikings, to a two-year, $36 million contract.

Well, I was hoping for more than a bridge QB for my favorite WR (D. Thomas), but this is a definite upgrade from the three stooges Denver put behind center last year.


03/24/18, 08:13 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


LeGarrette Blount

Philadelphia Eagles

Detroit Sparks Up Blount


The Lions signed free agent RB LeGarrette Blount to a 1-year deal worth $4.5M. He’s back with Matt Patricia, as the New England ties are strong.

The Lions have needed a true goal-line/power-back for years. I expect Blount to get between 150-200 touches and all the short-yardage carries. Detroit’s offense doesn’t really fit what Blount brings to the table, but I expect Patricia will have some influence over how the offense will operate from here-on-out.


03/24/18, 08:10 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Cleveland Browns

Money Ball: The Sequel


Hate to start out the offseason with the Cleveland Browns, but they are makin’ moves!
Browns acquired: Tyrod Taylor, Jarvis Landry, Damarious Randall
Browns gave up: 2018 3rd-round pick (No. 65), 2018 4th-round pick, 2019 7th-round pick, DeShone Kizer

Building with experienced quality performers that have something to prove, by selling inconsequential draft picks is exactly what Sashi Brown was building up for. It’s a shame he won’t be around to reap the rewards, but these are quality moves for a win-now mentality.


03/09/18, 09:37 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Tyrod Taylor

Buffalo Bills

Hue Looks To TyGoat


Browns left tackle Joe Thomas, who's pondering his future, is a fan of Tyrod Taylor and has said so on the ThomaHawk Show podcast.

Tyrod is just one season removed (2016) from being the QB11 in average fantasy ppg, including seven 20+ point weeks and six 15+ point weeks. Given the current talent on the O-line and skill position weapons he could improve on those numbers. He has the potential to be this year’s Alex Smith, definitely heading my late-round (12+) QB picks now.


03/09/18, 09:32 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Deshone Kizer

Cleveland Browns

Packers Get In On The Fun


The Packers have traded for QB DeShone Kizer from the Browns to Green Bay.

This is the best possible scenario for Kizer, who was thrown into the fire last season. Getting the chance to develop and learn behind the best in the business is the best chance he has for longevity.


03/09/18, 09:30 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Torrey Smith

Philadelphia Eagles

On The Move Again


The Eagles trade WR Torrey Smith to the Panthers for CB Daryl Worley. Torrey Smith could fill the old Ted Ginn role which makes this fairly interesting. Stagg Party says it’s more of a boost for Cam than Torrey himself.

This is an absolute perfect fit, someone who isn’t going to demand the ball, but can take the top off a defense while McCaffrey, Olsen, and Cam work underneath. Torrey is looking like a great late-round flyer.


03/09/18, 09:28 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


DeMarco Murray

Tennessee Titans

Henry Hype Train Has Clear Track


DeMarco Murray was released by the Titans.
No surprise here, expect Derick Henry to be a lead back with 250+ touches, but they will bring in someone that will play the third-down, pass-catching role out of the backfield. I wouldn’t be surprised if they sign someone like Jerick McKinnon or Rex Burkhead, or even Darren Sproles or Charles Sims. There are also plenty of options in the NFL draft, Henry won’t be a true “Bell Cow.”


03/09/18, 09:17 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Marquise Goodwin

San Francisco 49ers

The Name Says It All


Marquise Goodwin and the 49ers have agreed to a 3yr extension worth $20.3M & 10M guaranteed.

Shanahan has found his big-play threat at a reasonable price. Goodwin caught 56 balls for 962 yards last season, but only had two TD’s. None of his six longest plays (33+ yards) were from Garoppollo so it leads me to believe they will still be looking for a top of the line WR, even with Garcon coming back from injury.


03/09/18, 09:15 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Lamar Miller of the Houston Texans is the best RB to play in Week 1 of the NFL playoffs for DFS says Stagg Party

The Daily Dos & Don'ts - Week 18 DFS Advice (Wild Card Playoffs 2016)

Posted by d-Rx on 01/06/17

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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Stagg Party's DFS Picks Wild Card Playoffs

 

 

Pillar: Le’Veon Bell - DraftKings - $10,300 / FanDuel - $10,300   [MIA@PIT]

Le’Veon Bell looks like the best player on this slate of games, with his teammate Antonio Brown arguably his greatest competition. Bell had arguably his worst game of the season against the Dolphins earlier this season, notching 108 total yards as the Steelers got smashed 30-15 in Miami. Luckily for you, everyone knows that the Steelers play better at home, giving him huge upside this week as Pittsburgh is currently a ten-point favorite. In DraftKings scoring, Bell is also more likely to be heavily involved in the passing game early giving him a high floor with his huge ceiling, hence the 10K price. It is hard to fade the running back who has the highest raw point total of all of them on the slate.

 

Mid Priced Core Piece: - Lamar Miller - DraftKings - $6,100 / FanDuel - $7,100 [OAK@HOU]

Lamar Miller is coming off of being out in Week 16 and was held out again in Week 17 with an ankle injury for this exact time of the year. The Texans will again be starting Brock Osweiler, which means their gameplan will be to hide them as much as they can, and that means riding Lamar Miller. In seven games at home this season, Miller averaged 22 rushes for 85 yards and scored three touchdowns and adding 2.5 catches a game to take him over 100 scrimmage yards a game at home. The last time these two teams played, Miller rushed 24 times for 104 yards and a score. The Raiders give up the 8th most fantasy points to opposing running backs, and Miller is now completely healthy for the first time since Week 1.

 

Low Cost Dart Throw: Paul Perkins - DraftKings - $4,100 / FanDuel - $5,900 [NYG@GB]

Paul Perkins looks to have taken the reigns of the Giants lead back from Rashad Jennings in the final game of the season after rushing for their first 100-yard game of the season. Perkins rushed for 102 yards on 21 carries and over his last three games has averaged 16 carries a game at a 4.5-yard per carry clip. Perkins has yet to score a touchdown this season either through the air or on the ground, but the Playoffs are a good a time as any. In PPR leagues, the Packers have allowed a running back over 10 fantasy points in each of the last three weeks. Perkins has big play ability and at his price, a long touchdown can pay off big time.

 

Fade: Thomas Rawls - DraftKings - $5,700 / FanDuel - $7,100   [DET@SEA]

Thomas Rawls basically has had one good game of the season, back in Week 13 against the Carolina Panthers. Since then, Rawls carried it 49 times over four games and averaged a miniscule 2.5 yards per carry with one score. That includes a tilt against one of the worst rushing defenses of the last 50 years, in the San Francisco 49ers. Rawls can’t seem to shake free from his offensive line and defenses are smashing him in the backfield. On the season, Detroit was tough against opposing running backs and with how bad this run game has been. Lets just saw I am running away from Thomas Rawls.

 

Stack of the Week: Lamar Miller and Texans Defense [OAK@HOU]



 

Mo’s DFS Picks Wild Card Playoffs

 

 

Pillar: Zach Zenner - DraftKings - $4,500 / FanDuel - $6,200 [DET@SEA]

Look, Lev Bell is probably my pillar, but that is almost a given. Besides Bell, and almost because of him, you need some cheaper plays. Zenner gives you an affordable back that will get volume. In the last five weeks, he leads all Lions backs in every statistical category including receiving numbers out of the backfield. He is their red zone guy. Zenner has three TDs in the last two games. In Week 16 he played in 76% of snaps, last week he played in 97%. It is hard to find a better volume to dollar ratio. In fact, I even like Zenner in cash games this week.

 

Mid Priced Core Piece: Doug Baldwin - DraftKings - $7,000 / FanDuel - $6,900 [DET@SEA]

Seattle does not have the best offensive line. Wilson could very well be under duress and need to get the ball out quick. If so, Baldwin has the lowest average depth of target on the team, meaning he runs shorter routes. Plus, he plays in the slot. Detroit is down their two top corners. Even when they were there, it was the weakest spot on their secondary. Now they will be forced to start 3rd or even a 4th string secondary guy, that likely, does not normally play slot corner. Baldwin tends to ramp up his play later in the season and he will be playing against a slot corner that does not even have a ranking in PFF. This matchup could be a disaster for the Lions.

 

Low Cost Dart Throw: Alex Collins- DraftKings - $4,500 / FanDuel - $5,800 [DET@SEA]

While Collins is the same price as Zenner, I consider him more of a GPP play. Zenner does not have any competition. But, comparing Collins with Rawls, I think many folks will be surprised. One, you want a Seahawks RB as this game should see lots of running; Seattle is favored by just over a TD. In the last couple of weeks, Collins is far more efficient. Collins is averaging 5.6 yards per touch to Rawls 1.4. Not only that, Collins is getting more volume. In the same time span, he has 3 more touches. In fact, Rawls is not even involved in the passing game, but Collins is. The bottom line is, for a very cheap price, you get a RB on a team expected to run a great deal. Not only is Collins more efficient with his touches, he is getting more of them. He is your Seahawks RB to own.

 

Fade: Aaron Rodgers  - DraftKings - $7,900 / FanDuel - $8,600 [NYG@GB]

Aaron Rodgers has been the man in fantasy as of late. That is precisely why I think he will be the highest owned QB. I want to leverage those ownership numbers. He has a very tough matchup against the Giants. According to PFF, DRC and Janoris Jenkins are both ranked in the top 10. No other defense this weekend can boast two corners ranked so high. Football Outsiders gives the Giants a ranking of 4th against the pass, and when you look at their weighted DVOA (which accounts more for recent games than earlier ones) the Giants are 2nd in the NFL against the pass. They are a sneaky good D that could account for INTs, if indeed Rodgers has a subpar game, just think of how many owners you can vault over.

 

Stack of the Week: Big Ben, Le'Veon Bell



 

ØC's DFS Picks Wild Card Playoffs

 


Pillar: WR, Odell Beckham Jr. / NYG @ GB / Draft Kings $9,100 /  FanDuel $8,900

Odell has arguably the easiest match-up and situation for all receivers this Wild Card weekend. Ignoring Week 17, Beckham put up double digit fantasy points in seven of the last eight games. This includes seven touchdowns and two games over 100 yards receiving. His yardage total could be better, but Eli Manning is having an off year and not getting the ball to Odell downfield accurately. Despite this, the Giants will need the passing game to keep pace with Rodgers and the Packer offense. Luckily, Green Bay is dead last in defending fantasy receivers. They have allowed double digit points to every receiver with six or more targets in the last three weeks.

 

 

Mid Price Core: RB, Jay Ajayi / MIA @ PIT / DraftKings $6,800 / FanDuel $8,300

Jay Ajayi will be the main weapon for Miami against the Steelers in Pittsburgh. I am not usually a proponent of a rushing attack going on the road in a hostile environment like Heinze Field, but the Dolphins cannot rely on Matt Moore to pull off the upset. Ajayi will be used in the passing game as well, making him more important in PPR formats like DraftKings and FanDuel. In Week 6, Ajayi ripped off 204 rushing yards and two touchdowns against the Steelers. Obviously, the odds of a repeat performance are zero, but if Miami wants to keep the ball out of the hands of Bell, Brown, and Big Ben, they’ll have to win time of possession. Using Ajayi will also open up play action sequences where Moore can hit Stills, Landry, or Parker down field. Either way, Jay is the pillar of this offense with a history of major fantasy production.

 

 

Dart Throw: RB, Alex Collins / SEA vs DET / Draft Kings $4,500 / FanDuel $5,800

Thomas Rawls is bad at football and often injured. He should be 100% back from his most recent shoulder injury and facing a fairly stout Detroit rush defense at home. However, since his only 100+ yard rushing performance this season back in Week 13, Rawls has averaged just 2.5 yards per carry with only one score. Alex Collins on the other hand, averages 5.1 yards per rush over his last three contests. If Seattle comes out struggling to establish a rushing attack, look for Pete Carrol to get Collins into the game more often. You’ll need Alex to get at least 10 touches to remain fantasy relevant, but I see this as a battle between who can control the line of scrimmage. You could do worse for the cost.

 

 

Fade: The Entire Oakland Offense

I think it’s safe to say we all miss Derek Carr. It would be somewhat okay to swap Matt McGloin in and hope for comparable numbers from guys like Crabtree and Cooper, but McGloin will not be playing in this game due to injury. Third string QB Connor Cook will get the first start of his career on the road against a fantasy defense that is top 4 in defending quarterbacks, receivers, and tight ends. This is a nightmare scenario for Oakland and I see no player worth their price tag.

 

 

Stack: Jay Ajayi and Jarvis Landry (45.8 points combined against the Steelers in Week 6)


 

 

Houdini's DFS Picks Wild Card Playoffs

 

  

Pillar: Le’Veon Bell – Draft Kings $10,300 / Fan Duel $10,300 [PIT vs. MIA]

This is a ridiculous price for Bell, but there are not many options this week, and there are plenty of mid-range players that spending for him makes sense. Bell has been on a tear since Week 11, averaging 182 total yards per game, with seven touchdowns in those six games. Miami allows 140 rushing yards per game, so the Bell should be rung early and often in this matchup.

 

Mid Priced Core Piece: Doug Baldwin – Draft Kings $7,000 / Fan Duel $6,900 [SEA vs. DET]

Baldwin has not been playing winning football as of late, but he is still the main outside threat for the Seahawks. The Lions allowed 72.7% of passes to be completed this year, which was the worst rate in NFL history, and should allow Baldwin a high conversion rate and a much higher upside this week.

 

Low Cost Dart Throw: Paul Perkins – Draft Kings $4,100 / Fan Duel $5,900 [NYG@GB]

Perkins is coming off his first 100-yard rushing game of his career and will look to carry that momentum into this meeting with the Packers. The Giants may want to lean on the running game to keep the ball out of Aaron Rodgers hands, and Perkins is the big play threat out of the backfield. He could also see more work as a receiver if the Giants fall behind. If you spend up for Bell, you can do a nice job matching him up with Perkins.

 

Fade: Latavius Murray – Draft Kings $5,000 / Fan Duel $6,700 [OAK@HOU]

Murray has been unimpressive in his final three weeks of the season. He only ran for 132 yards with no touchdowns in those three games. He faces a Texans defense that was 5th best overall in fantasy points allowed, and this game has the lowest over/under of any game this week. With Connor Cook under center you may think they will lean on the running game, but the Raiders have been featuring DeAndre Washington, so he will still be splitting carries on an offense that is going to have a lot of three and outs.

 

Stack of the Week:  Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams [GB vs. NYG]

 

 

 

 

 

FanDuel Points Allowed During the 2016 Regular Season


FanDuel Points Allowed During the 2016 Regular Season




DraftKings Points Allowed During the 2016 Regular Season


DraftKings Points Allowed During the 2016 NFL Season


 


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The Daily Dos & Don'ts - Week 17 DFS Advice (2016)