Week 20
January 20, 2018
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Tom Brady

New England Patriots

Tom Still Terrific?


Tom Brady was first listed on the team's injury report with an Achilles injury heading in to Week 11.
Weeks 1-10: 21.2 fantasy points per game, 110.9 passer rating
Weeks 11-17: 14.2 fantasy points per game, 87.3 passer rating

Fantasy Goo: This should line up for a good week for Brady, Tennessee is 8th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, but just below average against QB’s. The Patriots are 13 point favorites on Saturday Night, if Brady doesn’t do it at home in prime-time then something is wrong.


01/09/18, 07:30 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alvin Kamara

New Orleans Saints

Primary Role Shifting


Saints have run 5 times at/inside opponent's 5-yard line over last 4 weeks (including playoffs):
Alvin Kamara 3 carries, Zach Line 1, Mark Ingram 1. Kamara was in on all 3 Saints run plays at/inside 5 vs. Panthers last week, including Line's 1-yard TD run.

Fantasy Goo: If you’re trying to decide between Kamara and Ingram for the playoff run, Kamara looks to be the much better play.


01/09/18, 07:20 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jay Ajayi

Philadelphia Eagles

It's A Trap


Jay Ajayi (knee) is practicing in full for the Divisional Round.

Fantasy Goo: Atlanta is 5th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s this year and they are more susceptible to pass-catching backs. Todd Gurley rushed 14 times for 101 yards in the Rams' Wild Card loss to the Falcons, adding four receptions for 10 additional yards. Ajayi might have been drafted before Gurley this year, but that was clearly a mistake. Ajayi has talent, but he’s far from a good option this week.


01/09/18, 07:16 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Chris Hogan

New England Patriots

Back in Action


Chris Hogan (shoulder) is expected to return for Saturday's Divisional Round game against the Titans.

Fantasy Goo: He’s going to take a couple of weeks to get in tune with the offense, I’m looking to save him until the Super Bowl if you’re in one of those one and done fantasy playoff tournaments.


01/09/18, 07:14 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Drew Brees

New Orleans Saints

Strength vs Strength


Saints RBs led NFL during regular season in receptions (9.0) and receiving yards (77.8) per game.
Vikings held opposing RBs to fewest yards per target (4.2) and 3rd-fewest yards per game (30.6).

Fantasy Goo: The Vikings have been absolutely sick in all aspects on defense this year. If the Saints are going to pull this one out it sounds like it’s going to have to be a Brees week, I’m not so sure he’s going to be the guy you want to start on the road this week.


01/09/18, 07:12 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


LeSean McCoy

Buffalo Bills

Not The Real McCoy


LeSean McCoy said if he plays Sunday, "I want to be able to cut well enough to where I don't have a lot of pain cutting. I just want to be close, or the best as far as 100 percent as I can get. The type of game like this, you got to lay it all on the line.”

Fantasy Goo: McCoy is a poor play against the Jags this week. The Jags strength on defense is against the pass (#1 in FP allowed), but they are still strong against the rush (11th). I’m not taking any Bills on fantasy playoff squads or in DFS this week.


01/04/18, 09:29 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Derrick Henry

Tennessee Titans

Arrow Pointing Down


DeMarco Murray (knee) didn't practice again Thursday. Derrick Henry show ready to go.

Fantasy Goo: The way to attack KC is through the air, they rank 9th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s. They will most likely be in negative game script. KC hasn’t allowed any team to score over 20 points in Arrowhead all year.


01/04/18, 09:27 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Julio Jones

Atlanta Falcons

No Fly Zone


Julio Jones finished 11th in NFL in red-zone targets but caught only 5 of 19. He finished 4th in targets inside 10 but only caught 4 of 11.

Fantasy Goo: The Rams have a strong pass defense, especially against outside receivers, but are second worst in fantasy points allowed to RB’s. Freeman and Coleman are the only Falcons I am considering this week.


01/04/18, 09:25 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Kenny Golladay

Detroit Lions

Under the Radar


In the first game with TJ Jones (shoulder) on IR last week, Kenny Golladay played 95% of snaps and led DET WRs with 8 targets.

Fantasy Goo: Marvin Jones has a history of shredding the Packers defense and is a solid play at $6500 on DK, but Golladay is half the price ($3300) and will probably see a similar number of targets. If Detroit had something to play for I’d be stacking the heck out of this game, but I still think it’s smart to have one of these guys in the line-up this week.


12/31/17, 09:46 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Patrick Mahomes

Kansas City Chiefs

Rookie Debut


Patrick Mahomes was 2nd in PFF’s QB Rating when kept clean in preseason. He rushed for 744 yards, 22 TDs in his last two years at Texas Tech. Denver has allowed multiple passing TDs to six-straight QBs not named Petty or Brissett.

Fantasy Goo: The rookie was supposed to take over for Alex Smith much earlier this season, but Smith and the Chief’s came out firing on all cylinders and kept the rookie on the bench. Mahomes will get his chance this week as Smith gets a week off before the playoffs. Denver may be packing it in, but they still have one of the best defenses and I expect they will play more inspired this week against a division rival.


12/31/17, 09:32 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Wayne Gallman

New York Giants

Last Man Standing


Giants will be without Shepard (neck), Engram (ribs), and King (concussion) vs. WAS. Wayne Gallman has 9, 7, 8 target counts in last three weeks.

Fantasy Goo: Washington ranks 24th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s and Gallman is $4200 on DK. Feels like a great way to save and pay up at other positions.


12/31/17, 09:21 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alex Collins

Baltimore Ravens

Burfict Situation


Bengals LB Vontaze Burfict ruled out for game Sunday at Baltimore because of shoulder injury.

Fantasy Goo: Collins becomes a solid RB1 this week. Cincinnati’s run defense is a sieve with Burfict out.


12/31/17, 09:19 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Akeem Hunt

Houston Texans

Akeem No Dream


Charcandrick West is out Sunday vs Denver with an illness. Akeem Hunt and Kareem Hunt only RBs on active roster for KC. It would be a surprise to see Kareem play much. That means a ton of Akeem Hunt and likely some De'Anthony Thomas on passing downs.

Fantasy Goo: Akeem is min price ($3000) on DK so the definition of a free-square, but there’s a reason he’s bounced around the NFL and never earned a starting role. Denver is 5th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, I’m not rostering Akeem when there are so many other options this week.


12/31/17, 09:17 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


DeAndre Hopkins

Houston Texans

Milestone Not Worth The Risk


Bill O'Brien on DeAndre Hopkins' status: 'Probably won't know up until game time'. Typically, we might classify this as coach-speak, but Hopkins has never missed a game, and is four catches away from 100 for the season. He's probably pushing hard to play.

Fantasy Goo: This is an awesome match-up for the Houston WR’s going against a very weak Indy pass defense, but there is really no reason for Hopkins to play, especially with the calf injury. At $8400 on DK he’s just way too pricey given this news. A sneaky start might be Will Fuller at $4300, he has 5 targets in each of the past three games and is coming off some difficult match-ups. Earlier in the season he was a superstar with Watson throwing the ball, but he has always had the big play in his arsenal no matter who the QB is.


12/29/17, 10:03 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Dion Lewis

New England Patriots

Vultures Are Always Flying


James White (ankle) remained limited at Thursday's practice. White was absent for last week's win over Buffalo but should be out there against the Jets in Week 17. He ranks eighth among running backs with 56 catches this year.

Fantasy Goo: Lewis dominated last week with White and Burkhead out, even though Gillislee vultured a TD. I would imagine that White playing will take away the five receptions Lewis had last week and the Jets actually have a better rush defense than the Pats week 16 opponent (Buf). The Pats will be looking to lock-up home field advantage and won’t be resting their starters, but they will probably be looking to get everyone some work as they prep for the playoffs. Gillislee appears to be nursing a hammy and is not expected to play, but let’s not forget how White performed last year in the Super Bowl.


12/29/17, 09:47 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

Pittsburgh Steelers

Stars Sitting


The Steelers Marcus Gilbert tells reporter Tim Benz that the Steelers won't play Ben Roethlisberger or Le'Veon Bell in finale vs. Cleveland. Landry Jones will be under center for Pittsburgh and Fitzgerald Toussaint and Stevan Ridley will form a thoroughly underwhelming RB committee against the Browns.

Fantasy Goo: Underwhelming is an understatement for these two backs, a highly respected fantasy website hasn’t even updated the news on these two since the pre-season and doesn’t even recognize them as being on the team. The one player of note in this is Martavis Bryant, The Alien averages over 17 ppr points per game with Landry at the helm as opposed to 8.4 ppg with other QB’s. He also has 5 TD’s in 5 home games with Landry. Granted most of this production comes from 2015 when they worked together often in the preseason, but Bryant could be a very sneaky GPP play this week.


12/29/17, 09:23 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Jacksonville Jaguars

Play To Win The Game


Despite already being locked into the AFC's No. 3 seed, Jaguars coach Doug Marrone has no plans to rest starters in Sunday's game against the Titans. "Make no mistake about it, just so there is not a lot of talk during the week: When the players come in (Wednesday), we are talking about how we are going to play to win and do everything we possibly can to win this game, period," Marrone said. "I am not even thinking about what happens beyond that, and that is the way we are going to go about our business this week."

Fantasy Goo: I think it’s crazy of him to do, but I’m sure he has Tom Coughlin in his ear feeding him that old-school philosophy. Looks like Bortles, Fournette, Westbrook and Cole will be safe plays against a Titan’s team hoping to hold on to the sixth seed in the AFC.


12/26/17, 10:00 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

Los Angeles Rams

Resting Starters


McVay hints that there will be Rams starters “who won’t play at all” on Sunday. The Rams are already locked into either the No. 3 or 4 seed in the NFC and will host a Wild Card round playoff game.

Fantasy Goo: Gurley, Goff, Woods, all sitting this week? That’s going to destroy so many hopes and dreams for teams that rode Gurley all year.


12/26/17, 09:58 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


DeMarco Murray

Tennessee Titans

Grind It Out


Mike Mularkey said he's not ruling DeMarco Murray out just yet. He's day-to-day. The Titans are holding out hope to have him in limited role.

Fantasy Goo: They are really grinding him into the dirt if they play him this week. I didn’t see the injury, but it sounded pretty ugly from sources in the know. Keep away from him in whatever format you are playing this week, I’m giving Derick Henry a solid upgrade as the Titans are trying to hold on to the final playoff spot in the AFC.


12/26/17, 05:17 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Philadelphia Eagles

All Locked Up


Pederson on playing Foles vs. Cowboys: “I’ve got to get him as many reps as he can and then be smart about it. Obviously, we have a lot of football left. Our season is really just beginning, quite honestly. We’ll be smart.”

Fantasy Goo: This is why you don’t play a championship game in week 17. I’m staying away from the Eagles regular starters, pretty much across the board, as they have a first round bye all locked up. Guys like Blount, Clement, and Nelson Agholor might have some DFS appeal, but we have to get closer to Sunday to see what they plan on doing.


12/26/17, 05:15 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Dez Bryant of the Dallas Cowboys in front of a Dallas Skyline at night - DFS

The Daily Dos & Don'ts - Week 19 DFS Advice (Divisional Round Playoffs 2016)

Posted by d-Rx on 01/14/17

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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Stagg Party's DFS Picks Divisional Round Playoffs

 

 

Pillar: Ezekiel Elliott - DraftKings - $8,500 / FanDuel - $8,500   [GB@DAL]

 

Ezekiel Elliott looks like one of the best plays of the week, and could even challenge Le’Veon Bell as the number one back on the week, unlike last week when Bell looked like the clear best play. Elliott will be coming off a couple week hiatus as he was held out in Week 17 then the Cowboys had a first round bye. Elliott averaged over 20 fantasy points in any PPR scoring format after leading the league in rushing yards and scored 15 touchdowns en route to finishing as the number two back in fantasy. Elliott was the first rusher to surpass 40 yards rushing against the Green Bay Packers this season in their Week 6 tilt in which he rushed for 157 yards on 28 carries. The Packers allowed the tenth fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs this season, but Zeke and this Dallas offensive line have proven to be matchup proof over the course of this season.

 

Mid Priced Core Piece: - Dak Prescott - DraftKings - $6,000 / FanDuel - $7,700 [GB@DAL]

 

Dak is coming off a great regular season in which he finished as the sixth best quarterback in four point passing leagues, demolishing expectations of any of the fantasy pundits. Dak is my favorite quarterback on the slate, and priced as the sixth highest option on DraftKings allows you to create some heavy-handed lineups. Dak is uber efficient when he throws the ball, will throw or run for touchdowns in the redzone, and doesn’t have many negative plays in which you can lose points. The Packers allowed the seventh most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks on the season. Dak should get to role at home, as the Packers defense hasn’t shown the ability to stop anyone on the season.

 

Low Cost Dart Throw: Jared Cook - DraftKings - $3,900 / FanDuel - $5,400 [GB@DAL]

 

Jared Cook led all tight ends in targets in the Wildcard round of the playoffs. Over the last four weeks of the season including last week, Cook has seen 30 targets go his way and at least 5 in every game. Cook has at least 37 yards in every game since Week 15 and could be in line for even more targets if Jordy Nelson is out of the lineup, which is a definite possibility at this point in the week. The Cowboys allowed the most receptions and yardage to opposing tight ends on the season, in addition to 8 touchdowns on the season. Jared Cook looks like a top option on the week at an affordable rate.

 

Fade: Ben Roethlisberger - DraftKings - $6,500 / FanDuel - $8,100   [PIT@KC]

 

Roethlisberger is coming off a nice game last week, but wasn’t the top scoring option on the slate that many thought he could be in a matchup with the Miami Dolphins, instead they got ahead early and rode Le’Veon Bell to a victory, a recipe that could be utilized against a Kansas City defense this week. With Le’Veon Bell looking like he can score from anywhere on the field, Andy Reid coming off a bye week, and gigantic home road splits, Roethlisberger wont be in any of my lineups. Roethlisberger’s road splits are so bad that Alex Smith averages two more fantasy points at home then Ben does on the road over the last three seasons. With Kansas City’s penchant for causing havoc and separating quarterbacks from the ball, Ben looks like one of the lower quarterbacks on the weekend.

 

Stack of the Week: Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott [GB@DAL]

 

 

 

PyromaniacMo's DFS Picks Divisional Round Playoffs


 

Pillar: Ezekiel Elliott - DraftKings - $8,500 / FanDuel - $8,500 [GB@DAL]

At $2,000 less on Draft Kings than Bell, Zeke is perhaps giving you the best dollars to looks ratio. Dallas was 2nd in the league as far as time of possession goes. That is exactly the type of game they want to run. If the Cowboys are going to advance, they will need to keep the ball out of the hands of Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense. Zeke could be in line for 20 touches easy. That is what you want to chase, especially in a short slate. Green Bay, when you adjust for schedule, ranks just 24th against opposing RBs. Zeke is a crucial part of this offense, and will get plenty of opportunity to rack up the points. Again, compared to the five figures you will have to fork out for Bell, Zeke is a steal and will allow you to afford a better roster all around. Even if Green Bay does take control of this game, Elliott is too heavily involved and runs behind the best line in football. Elliott is a great play regardless of the outcome of this game and is one of the safest bets for sheer volume.

 

Mid Priced Core Piece: LaGarrette Blount- DraftKings - $5,800 / FanDuel - $7,300 [HOU@NE]

Although the Houston D can hold their own against opposing backs, this game is likely to be the most lopsided of the weekend. This game opened with a 16 point spread. You know angry Brady is going to give them plenty of chances in the red zone, so why not look to the most heavily used back in the red zone this season. Amazingly, Blount had a total of 68 carries inside the opponent’s 20. The next most used back was David Johnson with 53. You will need to keep an eye on his availability as he missed back-to-back practices this week and is officially questionable,. If indeed he is out, then I will pivot to Dion Lewis. However, there has not been any indication from beat writers that Blount is in danger of missing the game. Blount led all RBs with regular season TDs, logging 18.

 

Low Cost Dart Throw: Geronimo Allison - DraftKings - $3,900 / FanDuel - $5,400  [GB@DAL]

Vegas expects this to be the highest scoring game of the week. Aaron Rodgers is certainly heating up at the right time. There just has not been a better fantasy QB in the second half of the season. Now, the Packers will likely play without Jordy Nelson. Allison is the one who gets vaulted up to the starting role. This is the only game that Vegas has pegged to score north of 50 points, and you can get a starting Packers WR for less than $4,000 on Draft Kings. Allison had 13 targets in the final two weeks of the regular season, he put up a total of 157 yards and nabbed a TD. This is about a low dollar cost for a high volume of opportunity, in a game expected to see a lot of scoring. Plus, this will allow you to roster some higher dollar players at other spots on your line-up.

 

Fade: Ben Roethlisberger - DraftKings - $6,500 / FanDuel - $8,100 [PIT@KC]

While we know Big Ben is a monster at home, he suffers on the road. He carries nearly a 117 QB rating at home. However, that plummets to a mere 78.4 on the road where he has 9 TDs to 8 INTs compared to a 20 to 5 ratio at home, despite playing two less games in Pitt. Plus, he was in a walking boot after last week’s game. KC will likely have Justin Houston back, and they have formidable secondary, especially Peters and Berry. Arrowhead is a tough place to play on the road as it is. If KC is going to win, they will need to take the air out of the ball, and chew the clock. Essentially, they need to keep Pittsburgh off the score board.

 

Stack of the Week:   Tyreek Hill and KC defense

 


Houdini's DFS Picks Divisional Round Playoffs

 

 

Pillar: Le’Veon Bell – DraftKings $10,500 / FanDuel $9,900 [PIT@KC]

Bell rushed 29 times last week for 167 yards with two touchdowns, and paid off for the owners that spent up to get him last week. Le’Veon will once again be the focal point of the Steelers offense as they face off against the Chiefs. Kansas City is allowing 121 rushing yards per game, but only surrendered 10 rushing touchdowns on the season. When these two teams met in Week 4, Bell had 144 rushing yards and 178 total yards but was held out of the endzone. He is going to get plenty of looks as a runner and receiver this week, and is the best play of all the Steelers this week.

 

Mid Priced Core Piece: Dez Bryant – DraftKings $6,600 / FanDuel $7,600 [DAL vs. GB]

Dez has not had a 100-yard receiving game since Week 10, but he has gone for 70 or more yards in his last two games, and scored twice in his last game. This week he faces a Packers defense that allows a league high 288 passing yards per game, and gave up 32 passing touchdowns on the season. Dez should see a lot of targets this week, and it is likely the Packers load up to stop Ezekiel Elliott, which is going to open up big opportunities in the passing game for Dez.

 

Low Cost Dart Throw: Dion Lewis – DraftKings $3,900 / FanDuel $5,400 [NE vs. HOU]

Dion Lewis has seen an average of 15 carries per game over his last three weeks, but he has not done much damage as a receiver with only five catches for 18 yards in those three games. That is likely to change this week, as the Texans are tough against the run, holding opponents to 99.7 rushing yards per game. Lewis will continue to share carries with Blount, but should be utilized as a bigger weapon in the passing game in this matchup. At this price he is perfect to match with Le’Veon Bell if you start him.

 

Fade: Ben Roethlisberger – DraftKings $6,500 / FanDuel $8,100 [PIT@KC]

Big Ben only threw for 197 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions last week. I am not feeling starting him against a Chiefs defense that has only given up 23 passing touchdowns, while intercepting 18 passes. Ben is likely to turn the ball over a couple times in this game, and Kansas City is not going to let him get off like he did the last time they faced each other in Week 4, when Roethlisberger threw for 300 yards with five touchdowns. The Chiefs defense is much better than they were at that point, and they will be at home. I am avoiding Big Ben this week.

 

Stack of the Week:  Dak Prescott and Dez Bryant [DAL vs. GB] 


 

 

OC's DFS Picks Divisional Round Playoffs


 

Pillar: RB, Ezekiel Elliot / DAL vs GB / DraftKings $8,500 /  FanDuel $8,500

The Cowboys will attempt to hold the ball for as long as possible in their divisional matchup against Green Bay. Ten to twelve play drives are the key to their success as it will keep Rodgers and the Packer high powered offense on the sidelines. Zeke is the league leader in rush yards and he should continue to receive 25+ touches against this depleted Packers defense. He’s about $2,000 cheaper than LeVeon Bell but any difference in FF points won’t be worth the extra cash. Zeke will be in all of my daily line ups this week.

 

 

Mid Price Core: RB, Dion Lewis / NE vs HOU  / DraftKings $3,900 / FanDuel $5,400

The Patriots have treated Dion Lewis like an every-day back-up rusher in a RBBC backfield. But, we all should know, he is no ordinary player. I think The Patriots have been hiding him since his return from injury for this very moment. He’s shared the change of pace, passing down workload with James White while LeGarrette Blount took the brunt of the carries. Lewis is a semi-dart throw due to this committee and the fact that Lewis doesn’t get the goal line carries, but “playoff Patriots” seem to pull out all the stops. They find ways to get every player involved and what could be better than an all-pro type RB to have a re-emergence against a vastly inferior team at home? The Texans have a top 10 defense against rushers, but they aren’t as stout against quick pass catchers, and of course, theres always an added bonus if his QB is Tom Brady.

 

 

Dart Throw: WR, Geronimo Allison / GB @ DAL  / DraftKings $3,900 / FanDuel $5,300

Geronimo Allison will fill the spot as WR4 behind Devante Adams, Randall Cobb, and Jared Cook with Jordy Nelson out with a rib injury. Rodgers has already made a few comments about Allison and how he’s performed nicely with limited opportunity in the latter part of the season. In the final week of the season, Geronimo posted 91 yards and a touchdown against the Lions and the absence of Nelson will leave at least 10 targets on the field. This should be the highest scoring game of the week and for a near bottom of the barrel price, you could do a lot worse.

 

 

Fade: QB, Ben Roethlisberger / PIT @ KC / DraftKings $6,500 / Fan Duel $8,100

Simply, Ben’s home and road splits are shockingly different. He has a 4 to 1 (TD to Interception) ratio at home but nearly a 1 to 1 ratio on the road. Kansas City has one of the loudest stadiums in the league plus their defense is middle of the pack or better against passers. Yes, Antonio Brown and LeVeon Bell are the best at their respective positions and could take any play the distance, but the Chiefs defense has 33 turnovers and is #1 in both interceptions and fumble recoveries. Kansas City is very good at playing keep-away, limiting any possibility for Ben to put up big numbers. Roethlisberger may reach his point threshold, but there is a limited possibility for stats that put you above the other daily players.

 

 

Stack: Tom Brady and Dion Lewis

 

 

 

 

FanDuel Points Allowed During the 2016 Regular Season


FanDuel Points Allowed During the 2016 Regular Season




DraftKings Points Allowed During the 2016 Regular Season


DraftKings Points Allowed During the 2016 NFL Season


 


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FanDuel Points Allowed During the 2016 Regular Season


FanDuel Points Allowed During the 2016 Regular Season




DraftKings Points Allowed During the 2016 Regular Season


DraftKings Points Allowed During the 2016 NFL Season


 


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