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July 22, 2018
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Aaron Jones

Green Bay Packers

Cream Rises To The Top


Jones’ 5.55 YPC on first- and second-down carries trailed only Alvin Kamara (6.24) for best in the league last year. Jamaal Williams averaged 3.80 YPC on first- and second-down in 2017.

He’s slid two rounds since the announcement of his two game suspension, he is a screaming value if you can get him in the ninth round. We already knew he was going to be competing in a crowded backfield so missing two games really shouldn’t be a big hit to his overall production. The likelihood of either of the other two backs taking over the role is slim, Jones should be able to carve out 10 touches a game when he gets back with fresh legs. They are all high risk for injuries so I’m hoping this added rest will help Jones in the long run.


07/21/18, 06:51 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Nelson Agholor

Philadelphia Eagles

Solidified Role


In 2017, Nelson Agholor had 62 recs, 768 yds, 9 TDs and 7 games of WR2 or better. There is no reason he wouldn't maintain this output, even with additions in the offense. Agholor had to carve out a role for himself and beat out incumbent Jordan Matthews. This year he'll be the main slot receiver and have an established role from the start.


07/21/18, 06:49 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Sterling Shepard

New York Giants

Buying The Slot Receiver in a Shurmur Offense


Sterling Shepard is currently 24 years old with a 124/1,414/10 career line, in two seasons. He finished 2017 as the WR42 in 11 games (WR22 in FP/G) with only a 13.9% target share. He finished 2016 as the WR36 as a rookie. He's currently being drafted as the WR42 in MFL10’s.

Shepard does see more targets (+2.7), get more receptions (+2.3), more yards (+28), and get about three more PPR points per game when Beckham is out. But he still averages over 11 PPR points per game when he is playing. Apparently Shepard is more open in the end-zone when Beckham is playing, as he averages three times as many TD’s when they are both playing.


07/21/18, 06:47 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Allen Hurns

Jacksonville Jaguars

Plenty of Targets in Dallas


He’s been hampered by injuries over the past couple of years, but when he has stayed healthy and gotten the targets he has been successful. His best season was in 2015, he had 105 Targets for 64 Receptions at 1031 Yards for 10 TDs, that’s 16.11 Yards Per Reception and a 61% Catch Rate coming from Blake Bortles. He finished as the WR14 in Standard Scoring and WR18 in PPR.

He's an amazing value in the 11th round of current best-ball drafts.


07/21/18, 06:41 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Eric Ebron

Detroit Lions

Second Team Breath's New Life Into TE


Outside Brady, Luck is the only other QB to support 2 TE's, both Fleener and Allen had 8 TD's with Luck. Frank Reich runs 2 TE sets very successfully - see: 2018 Eagles. TE1's for Coach Reich have never finished worse than 12th. Yes, Doyle would seem like the obvious choice after last season, but that was with Brissett who needed a quick dump off outlet. Luck isn't a check-down machine.

Eric Ebron has lined up "everywhere" in the Colts offense. And the new tight end already is beginning to feel at home in Indianapolis. Without a strong WR2, Ebron could see a large number of targets. The Colt's line-up in two TE sets more than any other team in the NFL.


07/21/18, 06:36 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Matt Breida

San Francisco 49ers

Filling Coleman Role


“One guy who stood out at Niners practice to me was RB Matt Breida. No one talks about him, but the dude is gonna get some run this year. Fast downhill player.”

This is just some more camp hype from a beat reporter, but if they don’t get another running back through trade or free-agency Brieda is going to see plenty of touches to pay off being picked in the 15th round of fantasy drafts. McKinnon has never had over 205 touches in a season, that leaves plenty of opportunity in a Shanahan offense.


07/21/18, 06:28 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


LeSean McCoy

Buffalo Bills

McCoy starring down 30 with uncertainty


LeSean McCoy, despite ending the year as the #7 fantasy running back in standard leagues was a slight disappointment for fantasy owners last year. McCoy played in all 16 regular season games, but only cracked 100 yards rushing 4 times, and averaged 4.0 yards per rush, which was 23rd in the NFL. That all happened with a formidable QB with a scrambling ability that defenses had to respect, presumably allowing McCoy some more room before tacklers ascended.
The Bills have the least sexy QB situation in the entire NFL in my opinion. With Tyrod Taylor at the helm for most of the season last year, the bills had the 31st passing offense. None of the QBs on the Bills roster are considered mobile and without a wide receiver on their roster worthy of drafting in any fantasy formats, defenses can stack the box against McCoy. McCoy will be overused, underperform and probably get hurt because of it. McCoy’s ADP is in the second round, but wouldn’t touch him until the fourth or beginning of the fifth round.


06/29/18, 12:42 PM CDT by C-wags

Source: pyromaniac.com


Tyreek Hill

Kansas City Chiefs

Hill lookin' busty with chiefs new look.


Tyreek Hill had a great 2017, amounting 75 receptions for 1183 yards and 7 touchdowns in 15 games. He’s currently being drafted in the middle of the third round in standard leagues, which would appear to be a great value. However, with promoted RB coach Eric Bieniemy presumably in-line to be the primary play caller, a new QB, Travis Kelce receiving the #1 target share and the addition of Sammy Watkins, I expect Hill’s numbers to decrease dramatically.
I believe Hill to be more of a boom or bust player this year. There’s no denying his break-away speed and ability to separate from defenders, and with Mahomes cannon of an arm, I expect them to connect deep on occasion. However, I believe Sammy Watkins to be the more complete receiver and likely to take more of the target share from Hill. Bundled with the change in offensive strategy toward the end of last year to run the ball more, the change to a young QB presumably resulting in a more conservative game plan, I see a major decline in the amount of touches Hill will get and see him as more of a 5-6 round flex play guy.


06/21/18, 10:54 AM CDT by C-wags

Source: pyromaniac.com


Eric Ebron

Detroit Lions

Ebron Could Use Some Luck


Colts signed TE Eric Ebron, formerly of the Lions, to a two-year contract. Coach Frank Reich called Ebron an "elite tight end."

The last time we saw Andrew Luck healthy (2016), the Colts used 2+ TE sets at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL and had the 6th-highest target share to TEs.


04/01/18, 11:32 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Carlos Hyde

San Francisco 49ers

Hyde and Seek


Browns agreed to terms with RB Carlos Hyde, formerly of the 49ers, on a three-year, $15 million contract.

Obtaining Hyde has several trickle-down effects; first it replaces Crowell who signed with the Jets, it probably diminishes Duke Johnson’s value a bit. Hyde is a better all-around back than Crowell was and will certainly take over the goal-line work seeing that he’s got 20+ pounds on Duke. It also reduces the likelihood that Cleveland takes Saquon Barkley with the 4th pick in the draft. They will most likely look to draft a defensive player (Chubb) or trade down again.


04/01/18, 11:28 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jerick McKinnon

Minnesota Vikings

McKinnon Goes West For Gold-Rush


49ers agreed to terms with RB Jerick McKinnon, formerly of the Vikings, on a four-year, $30 million contract.

McKinnon averaged a ho-hum 3.8 yards a carry for the Vikings and scored three rushing touchdowns. By contrast, San Francisco's former lead runner, Carlos Hyde, averaged 3.9 yards an attempt in 2017 and had eight rushing touchdowns.

It appears as though Shanahan is enamored with McKinnon's athletic metrics, but I'm not so sure he was "pounding the table" to get him. This move could push the Niner's to cut Joe Williams.


04/01/18, 11:12 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.sacbee.com


Mike Wallace

Baltimore Ravens

Eagles Keep Improving


Eagles signed WR Mike Wallace to a one-year contract.
Mike Wallace can still move posting a top five max speed among wide receivers last season. He will fill the void left by Torrey Smith as a speed vertical threat.


04/01/18, 11:08 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Terrelle Pryor

Washington Redskins

Jets Searching For Weapons


Jets agreed to terms with WR Terrelle Pryor, formerly of Washington and Cleveland.

Second year in a row on a new team doesn’t really help Pryor's cause, but I like the idea of him on the field with Teddy Bridgewater at some point. I would imagine, with some creativity, the Jets could really design some innovative gadget plays.
The Jets receiving corps really looks like a bunch of question marks at this point though, no telling what the week-to-week outcome will be with these guys.
Jermaine Kearse: 65 catches, 810 yards, 5 touchdowns (2017)
Robby Anderson: 63 catches, 941 yards, 7 touchdowns (2017)
Quincy Enunwa: 58 catches, 857 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)
Terrelle Pryor: 77 catches, 1007 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)


04/01/18, 11:04 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Carlos Henderson

Denver Broncos

Sleeper Watch


Broncos coach Vance Joseph said the team is "counting on" Carlos Henderson making an impact in 2018.

If you are paying attention to Staggs projections there is plenty of opportunity for Henderson to step into a solid number of targets in the slot. Henderson was hindered by injury and awful QB play last year. Being drafted in the 18th round or later in best-ball leagues, Henderson is the late round flyer that should be on your radar.


04/01/18, 11:00 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.denverpost.com


Ben Watson

Baltimore Ravens

Watson Returns To Big Easy


Saints signed TE Ben Watson, formerly of the Ravens, to a one-year contract.

Watson had 74 catches on 110 targets for 825 yards and 6 TD’s when he was with the Saints in 2015. After missing 2016 he had a pretty good year with Baltimore last year despite an anemic offense, with 61 catches on 79 targets for 522 yards and 4 TD’s. He’s not a bad late round flyer TE. He’s basically free right now, but I expect by the time the season starts he’ll be being drafted within the top 20 at the position.


04/01/18, 10:54 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jeff Janis

Green Bay Packers

Janis Truthers Challenged


Browns officially signed former Packers’ WR Jeff Janis.
The combine superstar never amounted to anything in Green Bay, I highly doubt Cleveland is the place for him to finally break-out.


04/01/18, 10:50 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Thomas Rawls

Seattle Seahawks

Jets Sign Rawls


Rawls had five RB1 games in 2015, one in 2016, and has been a disappointment since. He’s not worth your time in fantasy, but he could cause enough disruption in the Jets backfield to cut any upside we might have hoped for from Isaiah Crowell.


04/01/18, 10:48 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.newyorkjets.com


Allen Robinson

Jacksonville Jaguars

Coo coo ca choo Mr. Robinson


Bears signed WR Allen Robinson, formerly of the Jaguars, to a three-year, $42 million contract.

This is a great move for Robinson and Chicago. Nagy’s offense and the young QB, Trubiski, should benefit Robinson at least as much as Bortles did, and Chicago gets the top WR in free agency.
Everyone on the team will be in a new scheme so there will be an adjustment, but as they start to gel we should see a big second half. Robinson’s recovery from a torn ACL doesn’t scare me away from drafting him in the late third/early fourth, his current MFL10 ADP is 43 overall while his Draft app ADP is 59.9. I expect Robinson to be somewhere in the range of 75 receptions, for 1100 yards and 8 TD’s.


03/24/18, 08:25 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Sammy Watkins

Los Angeles Rams

KC Building Strong Air Attack


Chiefs signed Sammy Watkins, formerly of the Rams, to a three-year, $48 million contract.

I’m a big Sammy truther so getting him in the 5th or 6th round is a pure power move. His current Draft app ADP of 87.1 is an absolute steal, his MFL10 ADP of 69.5 is still a great value in my opinion. There are quite a few options for high targets in KC so I don’t expect him to see the 128 targets he saw his rookie year, but he should definitely see more than the 70 he saw last year. He’ll have an entire offseason to work with the near-rookie QB, and at age 25 he should have enough burst left to have a 70 catch, 1050 yd, 8TD line. For his career he has 16 receptions on 30 targets for 12 TD’s in the Red Zone, and 9 receptions on 13 targets, for 8 TD’s inside the opponents 10. He should be the exact WR the Chiefs need to get over the hump. As a team the Chiefs were 34/75 for 13 TD’s in the Red-Zone last year and 12/24 for 10 TD inside the 10.


03/24/18, 08:19 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.pro-football-reference.com


Kirk Cousins

Washington Redskins

Vikings Like That


Kirk Cousins plans to sign a three-year, fully-guaranteed contract from the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday. The deal is believed to be for around $86 million, and reports are it will be fully-guaranteed, a landmark for an NFL free agent.

Should be a lateral move for Kirk as far as fantasy, better WR’s, but fewer passes thrown in this offense. A healthy Dalvin Cook should be able to run out the clock if they are up in the second half of games and take the ball out of Cousins hands near the end zone. It should also help the overall efficiency of the offense so all in all it increases his floor, but cuts any garbage-time production we’ve seen with Washington. Kyle Rudolph becomes a big benefactor here, Cousins loves his TE, especially near the end-zone.


03/24/18, 08:16 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

DFS Advice for FanDuel and DraftKings for the 2017 in Week 2

The Daily Dos & Don'ts - Week 2 DFS Advice (2017)

Posted by d-Rx on 09/16/17

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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Stagg Party's Week 2 DFS


Pillar: WR, Julio Jones – FanDuel - $8,800 / DraftKings - $9,200

This week, Julio Jones is the guy I am pushing to get in all my lineups. He was held in check against the Bears, for really no fault of his own, as the Bears played a ton of cover-6 and bracket coverage trying to slow him down. The end result was lackluster four catches on five targets for 66 yards. Coaches have been quoted as saying we really should have just gotten Julio involved more last week, and I think they intend to do so. Last year, in games after he recorded 67 or fewer receiving yards Julio averaged 7.85 catches on 10 targets for 149.85 yards and a touchdown. In those matchups, Julio recorded a touchdown in all but one game, and 100 yards in all but one. Using FanDuel scoring, his average in those games would look like a cool 24.9 fantasy points. If you need another point after that, well Julio demolished the packers in the Conference Championship, putting up a stat line of 9 catches on 12 targets for 180 yards and two touchdowns. Yeah, I think I am rostering Julio this week, especially on FanDuel where his price is a bit cheaper.

 

Sleepers: RB, Mike Gillislee – FanDuel - $6,700 / DraftKings - $5,700

Mike Gillislee still sits as a strong value after his three-touchdown game against the Chiefs in Week 1. Gillislee has a locked in role as the Patriots goal-line running back, and as the game went on we saw him more and more involved with team getting first and second down work. While the Patriots are still likely to use all their backs, but Gillislee is in a role to succeed, with another 10 days of game planning for the Saints who are coming off a short week after playing on Monday night, Gillislee should be locked into lineups. The Pats are going to start using MG in different ways now that he is healthy and practicing with the team, and his ability to run from the shotgun formation will be a highlight sooner rather than later. We saw Dalvin Cook wear down the New Orleans defense on Monday Night, and I am expecting more of the same from Mike. Not being listed on the injury report is also a sign that he is healthy, as Bill would probably list his wife on there if he could. Gillislee also faced 8+ men in the box on over 50% of his carries, while the Saints went with a heavy box just 40% of the time against Dalvin Cook.

 

Low-Cost Dart Throw: TE, Kyle Rudolph – FanDuel - $5,500 / Draftkings - $4,200

Rudolph is a nice low cost option this week against the Steelers, instead of paying up for the receivers, Rudolph is a low cost option to get a piece of this hot Vikings offense, and a preferred play in the redzone. Rudolph runs a variety of routes and is a reliable quick threat, which could come in handy against the blitz crazy Pittsburgh, or Blitzberg if you will. Rudolph’s biggest upside however comes in the redzone where Bradford’s two best receivers, have a combined 15 career touchdowns, compared to 30 career trips to the endzone for the Notre Dame product. Rudolph also has a decent matchup, the Cleveland Brown threw 7 targets to their tight ends and they hauled in six passes for 62 yards. Last season, the Steelers finished just outside the bottom-ten in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.  Priced outside of the top-ten on FanDuel, Rudolph allows you to spend that cash in other spots.

 

I’d Avoid: WR, Mike Evans – FanDuel - $8,700 / Draftkings - $7,700

Mike Evans is coming off his bye week, and his priced has decreased a bit from last week. While the Bears have no one of note in the secondary the Bears are a tough squad against elite wide receivers. Julio posted just 4 catches for 66 yards last week, and Mike Evans posted the exact same stat line against the Bears. Last year against the elites, this is the average state lines for these players:  DeAndre Hopkins, Dez Bryant, T.Y. Hilton, Allen Robinson, Jordy Nelson (x2), Mike Evans, and Odell Beckham Jr. These guys averaged 4.75 catches on 7.1 targets for 70 yards and .375 touchdowns. The Bears just play a conservative style to take these guys away, making Evans a guy to avoid for me this week.

 

 

 

ØC's Week 2 DFS

 

Pillar: WR, Antonio Brown – FanDuel - $9,400 / DraftKings - $9,400

Even with the Steelers struggling, Brown amassed 32.2 fantasy points in PPR off 11 receptions. With David Johnson on the IR, Brown is the only player who can pencil in 10 FF points before the game begins. I won’t pay more than $10k for him and even $9,500 is cutting is close, but the return is worth it at Heinze Field.

 

Sleeper: RB, Thomas Rawls – FanDuel - $5,800 / DraftKings - $4,600

Rawls was a full participant in practice after not dressing for the first game of the season in Green Bay. For Week 2, Rawls will be the de-facto starting RB at home against San Francisco, who allowed a combined 24.2 FF points to Carolina backs in half PPR. Eddie Lacy is no threat and Prosise has a very specific role in the offense, so the only worry is rookie Chris Carson. If Rawls begins to falter we will see more carries for Carson, but I honestly don’t see Rawls getting less than 60% of the work.

 

Low-Cost Dart Throw: RB, Andre Ellington – FanDuel - $4,900 / DraftKings - $4,000

With the injury to David Johnson, Kerwyn Williams and Andre Ellington will see an increased workload. The Colts as a whole are a horrible team that allowed a combined 25.7 FF points to Todd Gurley and Malcolm Brown in Week 1, with most damage coming through the air; Ellington’s specialty. At such a cheap price, the potential is astounding.

 

I'd Avoid: WR, TY Hilton – FanDuel - $7,200 / DraftKings - $5,300

Hilton is more appropriately priced in DraftKings, but his potential is very low with either Brissett or Tolzein at the quarterback position. He just isn’t the same player without Andrew Luck, and a tougher Cardinals secondary is coming to town. Hilton should collect another five for fifty type stat line which is not going to win you any tournaments. Spend your budget elsewhere.

 

Stack: Thomas Rawls and Doug Baldwin

 



d-Rx's Week 2 DFS


Pillar: Brandin Cooks - FanDuel - $7,900 / DraftKings - $8,200

Revenge game for Brandin Cooks against his old team the Saints with a head coach that like revenge type shite in Belichick.Chris  Hogan might be the guy that has the huge game, but 1 of them is and my money is on the speedster out of Oregon State that the Patriots just acquired.


Sleeper: TE, Martellus Bennett - FanDuel - $5,800 / DraftKings - $3,900

The Falcons are crap against the tight end position and pretty stout vs. wide receivers. Aaron Rodgers will use the much-traveled Black Unicorn in this matchup to exploit the key weakness of the Falcons.

 

Low-Cost Dart Throw: RB, Chris Carson - FanDuel - $5,200 / DraftKings - $4,100

This is going to be the coming out party for Chris Carson. I know Rawls is back, but I think this team wants to have a lead back and it isn't Lacy, and Rawls is a good change of pace, move the chains type of runner. They know Rawls is an injury waiting to happen and Carson looks the part. We'll see who is right between me and ØC, who has Rawls as his sleeper pick.

 

I'd Avoid: WR, Michael Thomas - FanDuel - $8,000 / DraftKings - $7,500

Sorry to have this be so Bill Belichick focused, but they are coming off of a brutal loss, and while Drew Brees plays great against the Patrios, the Patriots always shut someone down. Tomorrow, that person is going to be Michael Thomas.


Stack: Derek Carr & Marshawn Lynch vs. the Jets

 

 


Head-to-Head FanDuel Competition

 - Week 2 -

 

ØC (0-1 | 88.32 pts) vs. d-Rx® (1-0 | 96.96 pts)


 

 

 

FanDuel Points Allowed - 2017


 

 

 

DraftKings Points Allowed - 2017

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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