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July 22, 2018
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Aaron Jones

Green Bay Packers

Cream Rises To The Top


Jones’ 5.55 YPC on first- and second-down carries trailed only Alvin Kamara (6.24) for best in the league last year. Jamaal Williams averaged 3.80 YPC on first- and second-down in 2017.

He’s slid two rounds since the announcement of his two game suspension, he is a screaming value if you can get him in the ninth round. We already knew he was going to be competing in a crowded backfield so missing two games really shouldn’t be a big hit to his overall production. The likelihood of either of the other two backs taking over the role is slim, Jones should be able to carve out 10 touches a game when he gets back with fresh legs. They are all high risk for injuries so I’m hoping this added rest will help Jones in the long run.


07/21/18, 06:51 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Nelson Agholor

Philadelphia Eagles

Solidified Role


In 2017, Nelson Agholor had 62 recs, 768 yds, 9 TDs and 7 games of WR2 or better. There is no reason he wouldn't maintain this output, even with additions in the offense. Agholor had to carve out a role for himself and beat out incumbent Jordan Matthews. This year he'll be the main slot receiver and have an established role from the start.


07/21/18, 06:49 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Sterling Shepard

New York Giants

Buying The Slot Receiver in a Shurmur Offense


Sterling Shepard is currently 24 years old with a 124/1,414/10 career line, in two seasons. He finished 2017 as the WR42 in 11 games (WR22 in FP/G) with only a 13.9% target share. He finished 2016 as the WR36 as a rookie. He's currently being drafted as the WR42 in MFL10’s.

Shepard does see more targets (+2.7), get more receptions (+2.3), more yards (+28), and get about three more PPR points per game when Beckham is out. But he still averages over 11 PPR points per game when he is playing. Apparently Shepard is more open in the end-zone when Beckham is playing, as he averages three times as many TD’s when they are both playing.


07/21/18, 06:47 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Allen Hurns

Jacksonville Jaguars

Plenty of Targets in Dallas


He’s been hampered by injuries over the past couple of years, but when he has stayed healthy and gotten the targets he has been successful. His best season was in 2015, he had 105 Targets for 64 Receptions at 1031 Yards for 10 TDs, that’s 16.11 Yards Per Reception and a 61% Catch Rate coming from Blake Bortles. He finished as the WR14 in Standard Scoring and WR18 in PPR.

He's an amazing value in the 11th round of current best-ball drafts.


07/21/18, 06:41 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Eric Ebron

Detroit Lions

Second Team Breath's New Life Into TE


Outside Brady, Luck is the only other QB to support 2 TE's, both Fleener and Allen had 8 TD's with Luck. Frank Reich runs 2 TE sets very successfully - see: 2018 Eagles. TE1's for Coach Reich have never finished worse than 12th. Yes, Doyle would seem like the obvious choice after last season, but that was with Brissett who needed a quick dump off outlet. Luck isn't a check-down machine.

Eric Ebron has lined up "everywhere" in the Colts offense. And the new tight end already is beginning to feel at home in Indianapolis. Without a strong WR2, Ebron could see a large number of targets. The Colt's line-up in two TE sets more than any other team in the NFL.


07/21/18, 06:36 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Matt Breida

San Francisco 49ers

Filling Coleman Role


“One guy who stood out at Niners practice to me was RB Matt Breida. No one talks about him, but the dude is gonna get some run this year. Fast downhill player.”

This is just some more camp hype from a beat reporter, but if they don’t get another running back through trade or free-agency Brieda is going to see plenty of touches to pay off being picked in the 15th round of fantasy drafts. McKinnon has never had over 205 touches in a season, that leaves plenty of opportunity in a Shanahan offense.


07/21/18, 06:28 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


LeSean McCoy

Buffalo Bills

McCoy starring down 30 with uncertainty


LeSean McCoy, despite ending the year as the #7 fantasy running back in standard leagues was a slight disappointment for fantasy owners last year. McCoy played in all 16 regular season games, but only cracked 100 yards rushing 4 times, and averaged 4.0 yards per rush, which was 23rd in the NFL. That all happened with a formidable QB with a scrambling ability that defenses had to respect, presumably allowing McCoy some more room before tacklers ascended.
The Bills have the least sexy QB situation in the entire NFL in my opinion. With Tyrod Taylor at the helm for most of the season last year, the bills had the 31st passing offense. None of the QBs on the Bills roster are considered mobile and without a wide receiver on their roster worthy of drafting in any fantasy formats, defenses can stack the box against McCoy. McCoy will be overused, underperform and probably get hurt because of it. McCoy’s ADP is in the second round, but wouldn’t touch him until the fourth or beginning of the fifth round.


06/29/18, 12:42 PM CDT by C-wags

Source: pyromaniac.com


Tyreek Hill

Kansas City Chiefs

Hill lookin' busty with chiefs new look.


Tyreek Hill had a great 2017, amounting 75 receptions for 1183 yards and 7 touchdowns in 15 games. He’s currently being drafted in the middle of the third round in standard leagues, which would appear to be a great value. However, with promoted RB coach Eric Bieniemy presumably in-line to be the primary play caller, a new QB, Travis Kelce receiving the #1 target share and the addition of Sammy Watkins, I expect Hill’s numbers to decrease dramatically.
I believe Hill to be more of a boom or bust player this year. There’s no denying his break-away speed and ability to separate from defenders, and with Mahomes cannon of an arm, I expect them to connect deep on occasion. However, I believe Sammy Watkins to be the more complete receiver and likely to take more of the target share from Hill. Bundled with the change in offensive strategy toward the end of last year to run the ball more, the change to a young QB presumably resulting in a more conservative game plan, I see a major decline in the amount of touches Hill will get and see him as more of a 5-6 round flex play guy.


06/21/18, 10:54 AM CDT by C-wags

Source: pyromaniac.com


Eric Ebron

Detroit Lions

Ebron Could Use Some Luck


Colts signed TE Eric Ebron, formerly of the Lions, to a two-year contract. Coach Frank Reich called Ebron an "elite tight end."

The last time we saw Andrew Luck healthy (2016), the Colts used 2+ TE sets at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL and had the 6th-highest target share to TEs.


04/01/18, 11:32 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Carlos Hyde

San Francisco 49ers

Hyde and Seek


Browns agreed to terms with RB Carlos Hyde, formerly of the 49ers, on a three-year, $15 million contract.

Obtaining Hyde has several trickle-down effects; first it replaces Crowell who signed with the Jets, it probably diminishes Duke Johnson’s value a bit. Hyde is a better all-around back than Crowell was and will certainly take over the goal-line work seeing that he’s got 20+ pounds on Duke. It also reduces the likelihood that Cleveland takes Saquon Barkley with the 4th pick in the draft. They will most likely look to draft a defensive player (Chubb) or trade down again.


04/01/18, 11:28 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jerick McKinnon

Minnesota Vikings

McKinnon Goes West For Gold-Rush


49ers agreed to terms with RB Jerick McKinnon, formerly of the Vikings, on a four-year, $30 million contract.

McKinnon averaged a ho-hum 3.8 yards a carry for the Vikings and scored three rushing touchdowns. By contrast, San Francisco's former lead runner, Carlos Hyde, averaged 3.9 yards an attempt in 2017 and had eight rushing touchdowns.

It appears as though Shanahan is enamored with McKinnon's athletic metrics, but I'm not so sure he was "pounding the table" to get him. This move could push the Niner's to cut Joe Williams.


04/01/18, 11:12 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.sacbee.com


Mike Wallace

Baltimore Ravens

Eagles Keep Improving


Eagles signed WR Mike Wallace to a one-year contract.
Mike Wallace can still move posting a top five max speed among wide receivers last season. He will fill the void left by Torrey Smith as a speed vertical threat.


04/01/18, 11:08 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Terrelle Pryor

Washington Redskins

Jets Searching For Weapons


Jets agreed to terms with WR Terrelle Pryor, formerly of Washington and Cleveland.

Second year in a row on a new team doesn’t really help Pryor's cause, but I like the idea of him on the field with Teddy Bridgewater at some point. I would imagine, with some creativity, the Jets could really design some innovative gadget plays.
The Jets receiving corps really looks like a bunch of question marks at this point though, no telling what the week-to-week outcome will be with these guys.
Jermaine Kearse: 65 catches, 810 yards, 5 touchdowns (2017)
Robby Anderson: 63 catches, 941 yards, 7 touchdowns (2017)
Quincy Enunwa: 58 catches, 857 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)
Terrelle Pryor: 77 catches, 1007 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)


04/01/18, 11:04 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Carlos Henderson

Denver Broncos

Sleeper Watch


Broncos coach Vance Joseph said the team is "counting on" Carlos Henderson making an impact in 2018.

If you are paying attention to Staggs projections there is plenty of opportunity for Henderson to step into a solid number of targets in the slot. Henderson was hindered by injury and awful QB play last year. Being drafted in the 18th round or later in best-ball leagues, Henderson is the late round flyer that should be on your radar.


04/01/18, 11:00 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.denverpost.com


Ben Watson

Baltimore Ravens

Watson Returns To Big Easy


Saints signed TE Ben Watson, formerly of the Ravens, to a one-year contract.

Watson had 74 catches on 110 targets for 825 yards and 6 TD’s when he was with the Saints in 2015. After missing 2016 he had a pretty good year with Baltimore last year despite an anemic offense, with 61 catches on 79 targets for 522 yards and 4 TD’s. He’s not a bad late round flyer TE. He’s basically free right now, but I expect by the time the season starts he’ll be being drafted within the top 20 at the position.


04/01/18, 10:54 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jeff Janis

Green Bay Packers

Janis Truthers Challenged


Browns officially signed former Packers’ WR Jeff Janis.
The combine superstar never amounted to anything in Green Bay, I highly doubt Cleveland is the place for him to finally break-out.


04/01/18, 10:50 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Thomas Rawls

Seattle Seahawks

Jets Sign Rawls


Rawls had five RB1 games in 2015, one in 2016, and has been a disappointment since. He’s not worth your time in fantasy, but he could cause enough disruption in the Jets backfield to cut any upside we might have hoped for from Isaiah Crowell.


04/01/18, 10:48 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.newyorkjets.com


Allen Robinson

Jacksonville Jaguars

Coo coo ca choo Mr. Robinson


Bears signed WR Allen Robinson, formerly of the Jaguars, to a three-year, $42 million contract.

This is a great move for Robinson and Chicago. Nagy’s offense and the young QB, Trubiski, should benefit Robinson at least as much as Bortles did, and Chicago gets the top WR in free agency.
Everyone on the team will be in a new scheme so there will be an adjustment, but as they start to gel we should see a big second half. Robinson’s recovery from a torn ACL doesn’t scare me away from drafting him in the late third/early fourth, his current MFL10 ADP is 43 overall while his Draft app ADP is 59.9. I expect Robinson to be somewhere in the range of 75 receptions, for 1100 yards and 8 TD’s.


03/24/18, 08:25 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Sammy Watkins

Los Angeles Rams

KC Building Strong Air Attack


Chiefs signed Sammy Watkins, formerly of the Rams, to a three-year, $48 million contract.

I’m a big Sammy truther so getting him in the 5th or 6th round is a pure power move. His current Draft app ADP of 87.1 is an absolute steal, his MFL10 ADP of 69.5 is still a great value in my opinion. There are quite a few options for high targets in KC so I don’t expect him to see the 128 targets he saw his rookie year, but he should definitely see more than the 70 he saw last year. He’ll have an entire offseason to work with the near-rookie QB, and at age 25 he should have enough burst left to have a 70 catch, 1050 yd, 8TD line. For his career he has 16 receptions on 30 targets for 12 TD’s in the Red Zone, and 9 receptions on 13 targets, for 8 TD’s inside the opponents 10. He should be the exact WR the Chiefs need to get over the hump. As a team the Chiefs were 34/75 for 13 TD’s in the Red-Zone last year and 12/24 for 10 TD inside the 10.


03/24/18, 08:19 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.pro-football-reference.com


Kirk Cousins

Washington Redskins

Vikings Like That


Kirk Cousins plans to sign a three-year, fully-guaranteed contract from the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday. The deal is believed to be for around $86 million, and reports are it will be fully-guaranteed, a landmark for an NFL free agent.

Should be a lateral move for Kirk as far as fantasy, better WR’s, but fewer passes thrown in this offense. A healthy Dalvin Cook should be able to run out the clock if they are up in the second half of games and take the ball out of Cousins hands near the end zone. It should also help the overall efficiency of the offense so all in all it increases his floor, but cuts any garbage-time production we’ve seen with Washington. Kyle Rudolph becomes a big benefactor here, Cousins loves his TE, especially near the end-zone.


03/24/18, 08:16 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

DFS Advice for FanDuel and DraftKings for the 2017 in Week 3

The Daily Dos & Don'ts - Week 3 DFS Advice (2017)

Posted by d-Rx on 09/23/17

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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Stagg Party's Week 3 DFS

 

 

Pillar: RB Le’Veon Bell – FanDuel $8,700 / DraftKings $8,800

Le’Veon Bell is the guy I am centering my lineups around so far this week. When the Steelers go on the road they typically go with a more conservative game plan featured around Bell. Pass attempts decrease and while there is a small difference in the rush attempts number, rushing yardage increases by nearly 20 yards per game. Their rushing touchdowns also increase giving Bell a chance for a rushing score or two. Another factor is the Bears anemic offense giving Pittsburgh a chance to play keep away with Bell in the third and fourth quarters in this game. Last week the Bears allowed 31 rushing attempts to the Bucs for 116 yards, and they do not have a back like Bell to go to. I am of the belief that people will be off Bell in favor of his passing game counterpart in Antonio Brown as the Bears are much weaker in the secondary. Bell is now back to getting a massive workload, and his price has decreased over the last few weeks making now the time to strike.

 

Sleepers: TE Zach Ertz – FanDuel $6,500 / DraftKings $5,000

Zach Ertz is by no means a sleeper, but hey I named these fucking categories and they really don’t mean much. Zach Ertz is a mid-priced pillar for me this week taking on the Giants. New York possesses a different kind of funnel defense, as when Janoris Jenkins is in the lineup they shut down opposing slot receivers and the opponents number one, giving Ertz the prime matchup against the Giants slow footed linebackers. The Giants have allowed double digit fantasy points to each tight end one they have faced this season in Jason Witten and Eric Ebron. Ertz has seen a strong target share in each of his games this season and finished with over 90 yards in each of his matchups. Ertz is a lock to be in most if not all of my lineups this weekend.

 

Low Cost Dart Throw: WR DeSean Jackson– FanDuel $6,400 / Draftkings $4,600

DeSean got off to a slow start to his Tampa Bay career, but this week he will look to bounce back against the stout Minnesota Vikings defense. Lucky for DeSean, he will avoid Xavier Rhodes and match up against second and third corners who have shown a tendency to make mistakes. DeSean’s deep speed could play a major factor in this game as the long play has been a problem for the Vikings from time to time. Martavis Bryant and Tommylee Lewis have each had big catches against the Vikings through the first two weeks and each ended the game with a 25+ yard per catch average, and we all know DeSean has the most 50+ yard touchdown plays since he has entered the NFL. DeSean is a tourney only play, but if you want to win he is a guy who can help you.  

  

I’d Avoid: QB Tom Brady – FanDuel $9,400 / Draftkings $7,700

This is especially true on FanDuel where Tom Brady is the most expensive player on the Sunday slate. I rarely want the most expensive QB, but especially when he is more expensive than stalwarts like Julio, Brown, and Bell. Brady absolutely demolished the Saints last week, but the Texans are a different animal. Houston has allowed just one passing touchdown this season and is coming off a ten-day hiatus after playing on a Thursday night with lots of time to gameplan. BOB knows Bill well, and will mix between coverage and pressure to try and rattle Tom Brady whether successfully or not.  All in all, the matchup doesn’t matter here, it is all about allocation of resources and if you play Brady you can’t do the needed things to win your tourney. But if you want to hear about the matchup, just know that the Pats went with a heavy run game they last time they took on Houston and Brady completed under 50% of his passes for under 300 yards and had as many interceptions as he did touchdowns (2).

 

  

 

ØC's Week 3 DFS

  

Pillar: WR Michael Crabtree – DraftKings $7,400 / FanDuel $7,700

Crabtree is coming off a three-touchdown performance against the defunct NY Jets but will have a tougher test against the Washington Redskins on the road for Sunday Night Football. However, Crabby has been the model of consistency through the first two games. In total, he’s collected 12 of 13 targets for 163 yards and the aforementioned three touchdowns. Josh Norman, the Washington star cornerback, is still ailing from a shoulder injury last weekend and will spend most of his time matched-up with Amari Cooper. Stick with the hot hand and ride Cooper on primetime.

 

Sleeper: RB James White – DraftKings $5,400 / FanDuel $5,600

In a week where a lot of favored teams are on the road, the Patriots get to play at Gillette. The Houston Texans have a tough defense against the pass but can be very susceptible to fantasy running backs. White racked up eight receptions on eight targets for 85 yards last week and could see similar stat lines all year with Gillislee taking most of the rushing touches. As FanDuel and DraftKings have PPR scoring, White is the perfect “boring” player with a low price to put your lineup over the top.

 

Low Cost Dart Throw: TE Jack Doyle – DraftKings $3,600 / FanDuel $5,300

Doyle was Jacoby Brissett’s favorite target in Week 2, collecting all eight targets for 79 yards against Arizona. The old adage of the tight end being a rookie/new quarterback’s security blanket still rings true in Indianapolis. This week the Colts square off against the Cleveland Browns who currently allows an average of 23.7 FF points to tight ends. Both Jesse James and Ben Watson teed off on the Browns secondary in the first two weeks of the season and the trend will continue for Doyle this Sunday.

 

I'd Avoid: QB Drew Brees – DraftKings $7,200 / FanDuel $8,400

Drew Brees can go off for 30 FF points at any given week, but I just don’t like the matchup on the road in Carolina against the toughest fantasy defense vs opposing passers. Granted the Panthers have only faced Brian Hoyer and Tyrod Tayler at the QB position, but even they couldn’t gain more than 193 yards through the air with a touchdown total of…zero. Brees will obviously earn more fantasy points than these two scrubs, but the upside to win your contest just inst there. I suggest the comparably priced Derek Carr or even Kirk Cousins at a further discount.

 

Stack

RB, James White – DraftKings $5,400 – FanDuel $5,600

RB, Mike Gillislee – DraftKings $5,700 – FanDuel $6,800

 

 

 

d-Rx's Week 3 DFS

 

Pillar: WR A.J. Green - FanDuel $7,500 / DraftKings $8,100

This is the game that A.J. Green gets going. The Packers are middle of the road this season on allowing DFS points, but they are giving up a majority of their yards to the wide receiver. Look for Bill Lazor to target the shit out of A.J. Green, Dalton will have the green light to force it to #18. I'm expecting a huge game for A.J. to break this offense out of it's funk.

 

Sleeper: RB Derrick Henry - FanDuel $6,400 / DraftKings $ 5,300

Even if DeMarco Murray plays, which I doubt will happen - Derrick Henry is going to be the lead back against the Seahawks this weekend. Tough defense, but through 2 games they are allowing over 5 yards per carry to opposing running backs - plus the Titans have a tough offensive line and Derrick Henry is a tank that no one wants to tackle. I think you will see the winds of change begin here (after building on last weeks big game) and start to see Henry getting more of the carries even when DeMarco is healthy, Henry is just too much of a weapon.

 

Low Cost Dart Throw: WR Rashard Higgins - FanDuel $5,100  / DraftKings $4,000

Opportunity knocks. Sadly for the Browns, he's their best wide receiver at the moment with Corey Coleman going on the IR and Kenny Britt looking like he forgot how to catch. The only person that can make plays right now through the air is Higgins. He caught 7 balls last week for almost 100 yards, and Kizer is going to need to throw it to somebody. The Colts are the perfect team for the Browns to play this week, as they are 29th at allowing WRs to score for both FanDuel and DraftKings allowing over 40 points to WRs in DraftKings. Value city for Higgins IMO.


I'd Avoid: RB Melvin Gordon - FanDuel $7,600 / DraftKings $7,600

Melvin Gordon will need to continue to do it through the air to be effective against the Chiefs. I can see the Cheifs getting out to an early lead and changing the game script from run to pass. Gordon has 67 yards on the ground on 27 carries thus far, but has been active in the passing game, take away Melvin's week 1 rushing TD against the Broncos, and he's had a shitty season so far. 

 

 

 

 

Head-to-Head FanDuel Competition

 - Week 3 -

 

ØC (1-1 | 216.16 pts) vs. d-Rx® (1-1 | 214.26 pts)

 

ØC vs d-Rx head-to-head FanDuel Competition 

 

 

 

FanDuel Points Allowed - 2017

 

FanDuel Points Allowed chart thru 2 weeks 

 

 

 

 

DraftKings Points Allowed - 2017


DraftKings Points Allowed thru 2 weeks 

 

 

 

  

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