Week 15
December 15, 2017
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Nick Foles

Kansas City Chiefs

Not Skipping a Beat


Carson Wentz is out for the season, and maybe some of Next season with a torn ACL. Over their first 24 games Foles has more TD’s, fewer INT’s, and more yards that Wentz has in his first 24 games. Foles was a Pro Bowler who threw 27 TD & 2 INT with the Eagles in 2013. The last time Nick Foles faced the Raiders, he threw for 7 TDs.

Fantasy Goo: I’m not saying there won’t be an adjustment period and I’m not trying to say the Eagles are better-off without Wentz, but Foles is a very capable back-up and if he can stir-up that 2013 magic the Eagles should be fine. Normally I’d say wait a week before starting Foles or any of the skill position players on the Eagles, but with it being week 15 and the match-up being a weak Oakland defense, I’m starting them all as you usually would.


12/13/17, 03:59 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Lamar Miller

Houston Texans

Miller a Solid Cash Play on DFS


Miller will face the 49'ers, who according to Football Outsiders ranks 30th in Defensive DVOA.

Fantasy Goo: In the last 3 weeks, Miller is 6th in total carries. In cash games, you want opportunity. Considering the 49'ers run one of the fastest paced offenses in the league, his carries, already in the top 10 in recent weeks, should see an increase.


12/10/17, 11:14 AM CST by PyromaniacMo

Source: www.footballoutsiders.com


Giovani Bernard

Cincinnati Bengals

Gio Free Square


Gio is gets the starting role today as there as Mixon is out.

Fantasy Goo: The man is only $3100 on Draft Kings. The Baengals are home and 6 point favorites. The game script could easily favor the ground game, which means Gio should get plenty of touches to surpass 3X value.


12/10/17, 10:57 AM CST by PyromaniacMo

Source: www.pyromaniac.com


Zach Ertz

Philadelphia Eagles

Still in Concussion Protocol


Eagles still want to look at TE Zach Ertz and his concussion on Sunday, but he is considered doubtful for game vs. Rams even though he is listed as questionable.

Fantasy Goo: Trey Burton has been a big name all week, going for 4 receptions for 42 yards after Ertz’s exit last week. Burton is a versatile athlete, but not a premier TE like Ertz. His good numbers came against Denver which is giving up the second most points to the TE position this year. Philly faces the Rams this week who are sixth best in fantasy points allowed. I'm not considering Burton a good stream this week.


12/10/17, 10:19 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Ameer Abdullah

Detroit Lions

Pain in the Neck


Detroit Lions RB Ameer Abdullah (neck, questionable) is not expected to play today, source said, though it's more for play than injury reasons. Detroit is trying other players to improve the run game.

Fantasy Goo: This isn’t surprising given Abdullah’s disappointing performances over the past year and more.
Tion Green led the team with 51 rushing yards in his debut last week, and figures to be the Lions' ball-carrier Sunday in Tampa. Pass-catcher Theo Riddick will see reps as well and I expect that he has a safer floor especially in PPR.


12/10/17, 10:05 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Chris Hogan

New England Patriots

Primed for Monday Return


Hogan has been out the past four weeks and has basically caused me a playoff berth in one of my dynasty leagues. If you’re still in it I’d get him into the line-up. With Gronk out Hogan should see a solid number of targets.


12/10/17, 10:03 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Amari Cooper

Oakland Raiders

It's A Trap


Source says, if Cooper can cut at full speed and start and stop in pregame workout, they will use him on a limited basis or “pitch count.” Calls it a “very dramatic turnaround” from what team was expecting 48 hours ago.

Fantasy Goo: Total decoy move, I’m not starting him even if he is healthy enough to play. Cooper went for 11/210/2 when he faced the Chiefs in Week 7, so it is tempting to put him in, but you’ve got to figure that the Raiders want him in there just so the Chiefs have to play coverage his way and leave Crabtree in single coverage.


12/10/17, 10:01 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Todd Gurley

Los Angeles Rams

Lower Expectations This Week


Todd Gurley has just 1 TD over his last four games, but still has finished as RB6, RB16, RB8, and RB7 in those games. The TD came in the RB16 week. Insane usage AND efficiency from Gurley.

Fantasy Goo: He’s been the most consistent RB1 for the entire season, which is a nice turn-around from a disappointing 2016. He faces the Eagles this week who are second-best in fantasy points allowed to the RB position this year. I think we have to start him, but expectations must be lowered. He’s a fade in DFS this week.


12/09/17, 12:58 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Josh Gordon

Cleveland Browns

Balls Flying Everywhere


Per @rotounderworld, 70% of DeShone Kizer's pass attempts have been catchable balls, the third-lowest rate among quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts this season. Winds expected near 20 mph in Cleveland this week.

Fantasy Goo: I would not consider starting Kizer at any point this year, but the key question here is will he be able to get the ball anywhere near Josh Gordon. He was only able to catch 4 of the 11 balls thrown in his direction last week, but he was going against one of the top corners in the league. He was still able to rack up 85 yards, and had over 200 air-yards, so we can be confident the opportunity will be there. If I had him anywhere I would most likely start him and will probably have him ranked as a mid-range WR2.


12/09/17, 12:53 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Andy Dalton

Cincinnati Bengals

Red Rocket Time


Andy Dalton’s finishes last 3 weeks: QB9, QB12, QB6. Over the last 3 wks he is QB 7.
This week he faces Chicago whose pass defense over the past 3 games is allowing a QBR of 103, a 68% completion percentage, and 6th highest passing percentage for 1st downs.

Fantasy Goo: Dalton is a viable streamer this week, but I hesitate to rank him in the top 12. If you’re in the playoffs you’re probably just riding with what got you there, but if you’re stuck with a questionable match-up Dalton is a solid option. Also consider that while Chicago’s defense has looked good most of the year, their best games have been at home, this game is in Cincinnati.


12/09/17, 12:50 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Tyrod Taylor

Buffalo Bills

Sore Knee Opens Door for Peterman


Nathan Peterman has taken all the first-team reps and it would be utterly shocking if he’s not the starter in a game the Bills must win if they hope to entertain any further thoughts about staying alive in the AFC wild-card playoff chase.

Fantasy Goo: This is a dream match-up, but I wouldn’t consider starting Peterman after his last performance (5 Int’s). If Taylor is able to start we should probably pump the breaks on him as well. The match-up is great, but his knee is the issue holding him back, if he loses his rushing numbers he loses his fantasy upside.


12/09/17, 12:45 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.democratandchronicle.com


Kenyan Drake

Miami Dolphins

Love the Drake


Per PFF, Percentage of Touches With At Least One Missed Tackle Forced:
Kenyan Drake: 25.7% (4th-best), Jay Ajayi: 15.7% (25th-of-50)

Fantasy Goo: Damien Williams is out so Drake should see 20+ touches, even in negative game-script he’ll get catches out of the backfield. When we are looking for a starting RB the first thing to look at is opportunity, and it’s definitely there this week.


12/07/17, 08:00 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Rex Burkhead

New England Patriots

The Belichick Shuffle


Rex Burkhead has scored a touchdown once every 13.2 touches. Alvin Kamara has scored a touchdown once every 13.3 touches.

Fantasy Goo: Burkhead has seen as many touches as Lewis over the past two weeks and is getting goal-line carries, against Miami this week I’ll consider them both RB2’s.


12/07/17, 07:55 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Devin Funchess

Carolina Panthers

Momentum vs Match-Up


Since Kelvin Benjamin was traded, Devin Funchess has averaged 18.4 PPR PPG. That would be good enough for the WR5 on the full season.

Fantasy Goo: Funchess will be facing Xavier Rhodes this week, Rhodes has been slowed by injuries over the past few weeks, but seems to be coming back to health. I’m certainly not considering him as a WR1 this week and if you’re in the playoffs you probably have other options, but if you don’t go with what got you there.


12/07/17, 07:52 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Mark Ingram

New Orleans Saints

Pair of Aces


The Panthers allowed more RB1 games in Week 13 (2) than they had the rest of the season combined (1).

Fantasy Goo: The Saints running game is for real, Kamara and Ingram are both must-starts. They could shred a middle-of-the-road run defense like Atlanta.


12/07/17, 07:21 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alvin Kamara

New Orleans Saints

Pair of Aces


The Panthers allowed more RB1 games in Week 13 (2) than they had the rest of the season combined (1).

Fantasy Goo: The Saints running game is for real, Kamara and Ingram are both must-starts. They could shred a middle-of-the-road run defense like Atlanta.


12/07/17, 07:21 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Derrick Henry

Tennessee Titans

Smoke and Mirrors


Over the last two games, Derrick Henry has faced 8+ in the box 76.92% and 72.73% of the time. He has averaged 7.83 YPC.

Fantasy Goo: His last two games were against Indy and Houston, while Indy is a bottom 5 defense in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, Houston is top 5. Henry had a 75yd run, with a minute left in the game while they were just trying to run-out the clock, against Houston which completely pads his stats. This week’s opponent, Arizona, is another tough opponent against the rush, I’m not betting on a big play from Henry again.


12/07/17, 06:13 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Andre Ellington

Arizona Cardinals

Keep It In The Family


According to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, the Houston Texans have placed wide receiver Bruce Ellington on injured reserve, ending his 2017 season. Ellington's been filling in for Will Fuller (ribs), and his absence will be felt, especially until Fuller's return.

Fantasy Goo: Fuller didn’t practice at all last week. Andre Ellington (Bruce’s cousin) attempted to play WR this year in Arizona, but couldn’t make the roster at that position. Don’t be surprised if the late season pick-up gives it another shot, Ellington had 5 receptions on 6 targets in week 13, for 59 yards.


12/05/17, 07:30 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Stephen Anderson

Houston Texans

Injuries Bread Opportunity


Houston Texans tight end C.J. Fiedorowicz (concussion) has been placed on injured reserve, ending his season. This is his third concussion in a year. The 26-year-old's season is over and possibly his career as well. Stephen Anderson will take over starting tight end duties for the Texans in his place.

Fantasy Goo: The 49ers are next for Houston and SF has been giving up points to every position besides TE’s. Anderson is more of a hybrid WR/TE, the main reason he lacks playing time is because he’s not a good inline blocker. Anderson had 12 targets in week 13, I’d imagine we will see double digit targets again this week.


12/05/17, 07:28 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Frank Gore

Indianapolis Colts

Not on Empty Yet


To say Gore isn't a flashy player is an understatement, but continues to see solid volume, reaching at least 18 touches in four of the last five games. The Bills are near the bottom of the barrel against the run, and Gore should see his usual workload as long as the Colts can keep the game close.

Fantasy Goo: I haven’t touched him all year, but I have a feeling he has just enough left in him for one more big game. It could just as easily be a big game for Mack instead, but starting either will be a risky proposition in this inept offense, especially in your fantasy playoffs.


12/05/17, 07:26 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Matt Ryan

Atlanta Falcons

One Year Wonder


Matt Ryan has not finished as a top-8 fantasy QB once in 2017. Last year, Ryan finished as a top-8 fantasy QB in 9-of-16 (56.3%) contests.

Fantasy Goo: He certainly misses the Shanahan offense. In weeks 14 and 16 Ryan faces the Saints who have been slightly better than average against QB’s this year, and a tremendous improvement over last year. Week 15 he has a nice match-up against Tampa Bay, but it is on the road.


12/05/17, 07:24 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

DFS Advice for FanDuel and DraftKings for the 2017 in Week 3

The Daily Dos & Don'ts - Week 3 DFS Advice (2017)

Posted by d-Rx on 09/23/17

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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Stagg Party's Week 3 DFS

 

 

Pillar: RB Le’Veon Bell – FanDuel $8,700 / DraftKings $8,800

Le’Veon Bell is the guy I am centering my lineups around so far this week. When the Steelers go on the road they typically go with a more conservative game plan featured around Bell. Pass attempts decrease and while there is a small difference in the rush attempts number, rushing yardage increases by nearly 20 yards per game. Their rushing touchdowns also increase giving Bell a chance for a rushing score or two. Another factor is the Bears anemic offense giving Pittsburgh a chance to play keep away with Bell in the third and fourth quarters in this game. Last week the Bears allowed 31 rushing attempts to the Bucs for 116 yards, and they do not have a back like Bell to go to. I am of the belief that people will be off Bell in favor of his passing game counterpart in Antonio Brown as the Bears are much weaker in the secondary. Bell is now back to getting a massive workload, and his price has decreased over the last few weeks making now the time to strike.

 

Sleepers: TE Zach Ertz – FanDuel $6,500 / DraftKings $5,000

Zach Ertz is by no means a sleeper, but hey I named these fucking categories and they really don’t mean much. Zach Ertz is a mid-priced pillar for me this week taking on the Giants. New York possesses a different kind of funnel defense, as when Janoris Jenkins is in the lineup they shut down opposing slot receivers and the opponents number one, giving Ertz the prime matchup against the Giants slow footed linebackers. The Giants have allowed double digit fantasy points to each tight end one they have faced this season in Jason Witten and Eric Ebron. Ertz has seen a strong target share in each of his games this season and finished with over 90 yards in each of his matchups. Ertz is a lock to be in most if not all of my lineups this weekend.

 

Low Cost Dart Throw: WR DeSean Jackson– FanDuel $6,400 / Draftkings $4,600

DeSean got off to a slow start to his Tampa Bay career, but this week he will look to bounce back against the stout Minnesota Vikings defense. Lucky for DeSean, he will avoid Xavier Rhodes and match up against second and third corners who have shown a tendency to make mistakes. DeSean’s deep speed could play a major factor in this game as the long play has been a problem for the Vikings from time to time. Martavis Bryant and Tommylee Lewis have each had big catches against the Vikings through the first two weeks and each ended the game with a 25+ yard per catch average, and we all know DeSean has the most 50+ yard touchdown plays since he has entered the NFL. DeSean is a tourney only play, but if you want to win he is a guy who can help you.  

  

I’d Avoid: QB Tom Brady – FanDuel $9,400 / Draftkings $7,700

This is especially true on FanDuel where Tom Brady is the most expensive player on the Sunday slate. I rarely want the most expensive QB, but especially when he is more expensive than stalwarts like Julio, Brown, and Bell. Brady absolutely demolished the Saints last week, but the Texans are a different animal. Houston has allowed just one passing touchdown this season and is coming off a ten-day hiatus after playing on a Thursday night with lots of time to gameplan. BOB knows Bill well, and will mix between coverage and pressure to try and rattle Tom Brady whether successfully or not.  All in all, the matchup doesn’t matter here, it is all about allocation of resources and if you play Brady you can’t do the needed things to win your tourney. But if you want to hear about the matchup, just know that the Pats went with a heavy run game they last time they took on Houston and Brady completed under 50% of his passes for under 300 yards and had as many interceptions as he did touchdowns (2).

 

  

 

ØC's Week 3 DFS

  

Pillar: WR Michael Crabtree – DraftKings $7,400 / FanDuel $7,700

Crabtree is coming off a three-touchdown performance against the defunct NY Jets but will have a tougher test against the Washington Redskins on the road for Sunday Night Football. However, Crabby has been the model of consistency through the first two games. In total, he’s collected 12 of 13 targets for 163 yards and the aforementioned three touchdowns. Josh Norman, the Washington star cornerback, is still ailing from a shoulder injury last weekend and will spend most of his time matched-up with Amari Cooper. Stick with the hot hand and ride Cooper on primetime.

 

Sleeper: RB James White – DraftKings $5,400 / FanDuel $5,600

In a week where a lot of favored teams are on the road, the Patriots get to play at Gillette. The Houston Texans have a tough defense against the pass but can be very susceptible to fantasy running backs. White racked up eight receptions on eight targets for 85 yards last week and could see similar stat lines all year with Gillislee taking most of the rushing touches. As FanDuel and DraftKings have PPR scoring, White is the perfect “boring” player with a low price to put your lineup over the top.

 

Low Cost Dart Throw: TE Jack Doyle – DraftKings $3,600 / FanDuel $5,300

Doyle was Jacoby Brissett’s favorite target in Week 2, collecting all eight targets for 79 yards against Arizona. The old adage of the tight end being a rookie/new quarterback’s security blanket still rings true in Indianapolis. This week the Colts square off against the Cleveland Browns who currently allows an average of 23.7 FF points to tight ends. Both Jesse James and Ben Watson teed off on the Browns secondary in the first two weeks of the season and the trend will continue for Doyle this Sunday.

 

I'd Avoid: QB Drew Brees – DraftKings $7,200 / FanDuel $8,400

Drew Brees can go off for 30 FF points at any given week, but I just don’t like the matchup on the road in Carolina against the toughest fantasy defense vs opposing passers. Granted the Panthers have only faced Brian Hoyer and Tyrod Tayler at the QB position, but even they couldn’t gain more than 193 yards through the air with a touchdown total of…zero. Brees will obviously earn more fantasy points than these two scrubs, but the upside to win your contest just inst there. I suggest the comparably priced Derek Carr or even Kirk Cousins at a further discount.

 

Stack

RB, James White – DraftKings $5,400 – FanDuel $5,600

RB, Mike Gillislee – DraftKings $5,700 – FanDuel $6,800

 

 

 

d-Rx's Week 3 DFS

 

Pillar: WR A.J. Green - FanDuel $7,500 / DraftKings $8,100

This is the game that A.J. Green gets going. The Packers are middle of the road this season on allowing DFS points, but they are giving up a majority of their yards to the wide receiver. Look for Bill Lazor to target the shit out of A.J. Green, Dalton will have the green light to force it to #18. I'm expecting a huge game for A.J. to break this offense out of it's funk.

 

Sleeper: RB Derrick Henry - FanDuel $6,400 / DraftKings $ 5,300

Even if DeMarco Murray plays, which I doubt will happen - Derrick Henry is going to be the lead back against the Seahawks this weekend. Tough defense, but through 2 games they are allowing over 5 yards per carry to opposing running backs - plus the Titans have a tough offensive line and Derrick Henry is a tank that no one wants to tackle. I think you will see the winds of change begin here (after building on last weeks big game) and start to see Henry getting more of the carries even when DeMarco is healthy, Henry is just too much of a weapon.

 

Low Cost Dart Throw: WR Rashard Higgins - FanDuel $5,100  / DraftKings $4,000

Opportunity knocks. Sadly for the Browns, he's their best wide receiver at the moment with Corey Coleman going on the IR and Kenny Britt looking like he forgot how to catch. The only person that can make plays right now through the air is Higgins. He caught 7 balls last week for almost 100 yards, and Kizer is going to need to throw it to somebody. The Colts are the perfect team for the Browns to play this week, as they are 29th at allowing WRs to score for both FanDuel and DraftKings allowing over 40 points to WRs in DraftKings. Value city for Higgins IMO.


I'd Avoid: RB Melvin Gordon - FanDuel $7,600 / DraftKings $7,600

Melvin Gordon will need to continue to do it through the air to be effective against the Chiefs. I can see the Cheifs getting out to an early lead and changing the game script from run to pass. Gordon has 67 yards on the ground on 27 carries thus far, but has been active in the passing game, take away Melvin's week 1 rushing TD against the Broncos, and he's had a shitty season so far. 

 

 

 

 

Head-to-Head FanDuel Competition

 - Week 3 -

 

ØC (1-1 | 216.16 pts) vs. d-Rx® (1-1 | 214.26 pts)

 

ØC vs d-Rx head-to-head FanDuel Competition 

 

 

 

FanDuel Points Allowed - 2017

 

FanDuel Points Allowed chart thru 2 weeks 

 

 

 

 

DraftKings Points Allowed - 2017


DraftKings Points Allowed thru 2 weeks 

 

 

 

  

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