March 21, 2018


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Cleveland Browns

Money Ball: The Sequel

Hate to start out the offseason with the Cleveland Browns, but they are makin’ moves!
Browns acquired: Tyrod Taylor, Jarvis Landry, Damarious Randall
Browns gave up: 2018 3rd-round pick (No. 65), 2018 4th-round pick, 2019 7th-round pick, DeShone Kizer

Building with experienced quality performers that have something to prove, by selling inconsequential draft picks is exactly what Sashi Brown was building up for. It’s a shame he won’t be around to reap the rewards, but these are quality moves for a win-now mentality.

03/09/18, 09:37 PM CST by Wheeler


Tyrod Taylor

Buffalo Bills

Hue Looks To TyGoat

Browns left tackle Joe Thomas, who's pondering his future, is a fan of Tyrod Taylor and has said so on the ThomaHawk Show podcast.

Tyrod is just one season removed (2016) from being the QB11 in average fantasy ppg, including seven 20+ point weeks and six 15+ point weeks. Given the current talent on the O-line and skill position weapons he could improve on those numbers. He has the potential to be this year’s Alex Smith, definitely heading my late-round (12+) QB picks now.

03/09/18, 09:32 PM CST by Wheeler


Deshone Kizer

Cleveland Browns

Packers Get In On The Fun

The Packers have traded for QB DeShone Kizer from the Browns to Green Bay.

This is the best possible scenario for Kizer, who was thrown into the fire last season. Getting the chance to develop and learn behind the best in the business is the best chance he has for longevity.

03/09/18, 09:30 PM CST by Wheeler


Torrey Smith

Philadelphia Eagles

On The Move Again

The Eagles trade WR Torrey Smith to the Panthers for CB Daryl Worley. Torrey Smith could fill the old Ted Ginn role which makes this fairly interesting. Stagg Party says it’s more of a boost for Cam than Torrey himself.

This is an absolute perfect fit, someone who isn’t going to demand the ball, but can take the top off a defense while McCaffrey, Olsen, and Cam work underneath. Torrey is looking like a great late-round flyer.

03/09/18, 09:28 PM CST by Wheeler


DeMarco Murray

Tennessee Titans

Henry Hype Train Has Clear Track

DeMarco Murray was released by the Titans.
No surprise here, expect Derick Henry to be a lead back with 250+ touches, but they will bring in someone that will play the third-down, pass-catching role out of the backfield. I wouldn’t be surprised if they sign someone like Jerick McKinnon or Rex Burkhead, or even Darren Sproles or Charles Sims. There are also plenty of options in the NFL draft, Henry won’t be a true “Bell Cow.”

03/09/18, 09:17 PM CST by Wheeler


Marquise Goodwin

San Francisco 49ers

The Name Says It All

Marquise Goodwin and the 49ers have agreed to a 3yr extension worth $20.3M & 10M guaranteed.

Shanahan has found his big-play threat at a reasonable price. Goodwin caught 56 balls for 962 yards last season, but only had two TD’s. None of his six longest plays (33+ yards) were from Garoppollo so it leads me to believe they will still be looking for a top of the line WR, even with Garcon coming back from injury.

03/09/18, 09:15 PM CST by Wheeler


Jonathan Stewart

Carolina Panthers

The Search Is On

Former Panthers RB Jonathan Stewart is visiting the Seahawks today, source says. Seattle is looking at all options to get that ground game going.

This would be an interesting landing spot for Stewart, but no RB available in free agency is going to do spit behind this Swiss-cheese O-line.

03/09/18, 09:13 PM CST by Wheeler


New York Giants

Building Blocks

NFL draft insider Tony Pauline says "belief" around the league is free agent OG Andrew Norwell signing with the Giants is "a done deal."
The top guard on the market, Norwell was one of ex-Panthers GM Dave Gettleman's most-prized discoveries as an undrafted free agent. Gettleman now runs the Giants, who have needs all over the line.

I like anything the Giants can do to repair this disheveled O-line. Building a line through free-agency is almost always a better option than through the draft, but I would still like to see them trade back in the draft and grab Quenton Nelson, OG, Notre Dame.

03/09/18, 09:11 PM CST by Wheeler


Dion Lewis

New England Patriots

Pass Catching Backs Set To Dominate

On first downs this year, the Eagles allow a 65% success rate on RB-passes. That ranks 29th in the league. Dion Lewis averaged 6.5 YPA and a 59% success rate, and James White averaged 7.7 YPA and a 58% success rate on first down passes this season.

02/04/18, 10:36 AM CST by Wheeler


James White

New England Patriots

Pass Catching Backs Set To Dominate

On first downs this year, the Eagles allow a 65% success rate on RB-passes. That ranks 29th in the league. Dion Lewis averaged 6.5 YPA and a 59% success rate, and James White averaged 7.7 YPA and a 58% success rate on first down passes this season.

02/04/18, 10:36 AM CST by Wheeler


Philadelphia Eagles

Attack With 11

The Patriots defense is particularly susceptible to runs out of 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRs), allowing a 61% success rate and 6.0 YPC to offenses when rushing from this formation. The Eagles are one of the most run heavy teams from 11 personnel, recording nearly 60% of their total rushes from 11 formation. The Patriots haven’t faced teams like this often, the teams the Pats faced in the playoffs, Tennessee and Jacksonville were last and 5th lowest respectively rushing from 11 formation. This is a massive advantage for the Eagles if they recognize it and use it.

02/04/18, 10:32 AM CST by Wheeler


Jay Ajayi

Philadelphia Eagles

To The Left, To The Left

New England started the season off with one of the worst rush defenses in the entire league, but things have really shifted over the second half of the year. Prior to their Week 9 bye, the Patriots had allowed a 44.70% Success Rate to opposing running backs, the third-worst in the league. That's dropped to about 38% since, and they've had the fifth-best rush defense by Success Rate since Week 12. New England's especially been good at stopping runs to the left side of the field, which just so happens to be where Jay Ajayi has really made a mark since joining the Eagles in Week 9.
I don’t look for Ajayi to make his mark in this game. I know it’s a lazy narrative, but a Blount revenge game seems to really be in the cards here.

02/04/18, 10:30 AM CST by Wheeler


Zach Ertz

Philadelphia Eagles

Pats Could Hit'em Where It Ertz

Zach Ertz leads the Eagles in targets (39) with Foles under center, drawing at least eight in three of their four full games together. Keyed by FS Devin McCourty and SS Patrick Chung, the Pats allowed the NFL’s tenth-fewest receiving yards to tight ends (720) this season, only four opposing tight ends have reached 50 yards through 18 Patriots games.
If Foles continues to pepper Ertz with targets we could see a big game for Chung or McCourty.

02/04/18, 10:25 AM CST by Wheeler


Nelson Agholor

Philadelphia Eagles

Plenty Of Fluids

The Eagles’ biggest pass-catcher personnel mismatch is Nelson Agholor against Patriots slot corner Eric Rowe. Rowe can struggle with quick change of direction, Agholor’s foremost strength. Agholor runs 87% of his routes in the slot, and New England allowed solid games to Eric Decker (6/85/0) in the Divisional Round, and Allen Hurns (6/80/0) in the AFC title game. Agholor still ranks second behind Ertz in Foles targets (29), but has had a surprisingly quiet playoffs with just 7 targets.
This will have to change if the Eagles plan on moving the ball, but Agholor has been sick with the flu for the past few days. He received intravenous fluids Saturday and will play, but it doesn’t sound like he’ll be 100%.

02/04/18, 10:22 AM CST by Wheeler


Danny Amendola

New England Patriots

Danny Playoffs

The Eagles finished second worst this season in percentage of passing yards allowed coming after the catch. Philadelphia struggled on short and intermediate throws this season, specifically to the middle of the field, where they allowed the third-most yards per passing play in the league. Brady was a top-five player in passer rating on these types of tosses. Amendola's been a monster in this year's playoffs for New England, grabbing hold of 22 targets in just two contests, accounting for over 24% of New England's targets. He should continue to play a role on Super Bowl Sunday.

02/04/18, 10:20 AM CST by Wheeler


Rex Burkhead

New England Patriots

Rex Back

Despite being listed as questionable for Sunday’s AFC Championship game vs. Jaguars, it appears as though Patriots’ RB Rex Burkhead will play.
This will cut into the 13 targets Amendola saw last week.

01/20/18, 10:49 PM CST by Wheeler


Adam Thielen

Minnesota Vikings

Making The Wright Move?

Adam Thielen (back) is questionable for Sunday's NFC Championship game against the Eagles.
He's fully expected to play after limited practices the last two days. He probably won’t be 100 percent so if you’re putting in a line-up you might want to pivot to Diggs or save some money and drop down to Jarius Wright who grabbed three-of-six targets for 56 yards Sunday and has established himself as the number three WR in this offense.

01/20/18, 10:31 PM CST by Wheeler


Leonard Fournette

Jacksonville Jaguars

Ankle In Question Again

Fournette aggravated his ankle in the Divisional Round and was limited early in the week. He was left off the injury report for Sunday's AFC Championship game. Fournette saw a heavy workload last week getting 27 touches in Jacksonville's upset of the Steelers. T.J. Yeldon rushed five times for 20 yards and a touchdown and caught 3-of-3 targets for 57 yards. If you’re looking for a cheaper option I expect we see Yeldon to be used to keep Fournette from aggravating the injury early.

01/20/18, 10:23 PM CST by Wheeler


Tom Brady

New England Patriots

Give Him A Hand

Reports are that Tom Brady threw the ball "incredibly well" during Friday's practice. He is listed as questionable for Sunday's AFC Championship game against Jacksonville, but I don’t think there was any real doubt that he’d play. Keep in mind what D-Rex spoke about on the Pyro Podcast 303 andScott Barrett tweeted about Brady last week:
Weeks 1-10: 21.2 fantasy points per game, 110.9 passer rating
Weeks 11-17: 14.2 fantasy points per game, 87.3 passer rating
The hand injury on top of his achilles injury, as well as going against the Jags #1 rated pass defense could keep the Patriots attack grounded this week. Lewis is the obvious play, but if Burkhead (Q) comes back it could be he or White that steals the show.

01/20/18, 10:22 PM CST by Wheeler


Tom Brady

New England Patriots

Tom Still Terrific?

Tom Brady was first listed on the team's injury report with an Achilles injury heading in to Week 11.
Weeks 1-10: 21.2 fantasy points per game, 110.9 passer rating
Weeks 11-17: 14.2 fantasy points per game, 87.3 passer rating

Fantasy Goo: This should line up for a good week for Brady, Tennessee is 8th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, but just below average against QB’s. The Patriots are 13 point favorites on Saturday Night, if Brady doesn’t do it at home in prime-time then something is wrong.

01/09/18, 07:30 PM CST by Wheeler


Alvin Kamara

New Orleans Saints

Primary Role Shifting

Saints have run 5 times at/inside opponent's 5-yard line over last 4 weeks (including playoffs):
Alvin Kamara 3 carries, Zach Line 1, Mark Ingram 1. Kamara was in on all 3 Saints run plays at/inside 5 vs. Panthers last week, including Line's 1-yard TD run.

Fantasy Goo: If you’re trying to decide between Kamara and Ingram for the playoff run, Kamara looks to be the much better play.

01/09/18, 07:20 PM CST by Wheeler


DFS Advice for FanDuel and DraftKings for the 2017 in Week 3

The Daily Dos & Don'ts - Week 3 DFS Advice (2017)

Posted by d-Rx on 09/23/17

by   The Archer


More Articals


Stagg Party's Week 3 DFS



Pillar: RB Le’Veon Bell – FanDuel $8,700 / DraftKings $8,800

Le’Veon Bell is the guy I am centering my lineups around so far this week. When the Steelers go on the road they typically go with a more conservative game plan featured around Bell. Pass attempts decrease and while there is a small difference in the rush attempts number, rushing yardage increases by nearly 20 yards per game. Their rushing touchdowns also increase giving Bell a chance for a rushing score or two. Another factor is the Bears anemic offense giving Pittsburgh a chance to play keep away with Bell in the third and fourth quarters in this game. Last week the Bears allowed 31 rushing attempts to the Bucs for 116 yards, and they do not have a back like Bell to go to. I am of the belief that people will be off Bell in favor of his passing game counterpart in Antonio Brown as the Bears are much weaker in the secondary. Bell is now back to getting a massive workload, and his price has decreased over the last few weeks making now the time to strike.


Sleepers: TE Zach Ertz – FanDuel $6,500 / DraftKings $5,000

Zach Ertz is by no means a sleeper, but hey I named these fucking categories and they really don’t mean much. Zach Ertz is a mid-priced pillar for me this week taking on the Giants. New York possesses a different kind of funnel defense, as when Janoris Jenkins is in the lineup they shut down opposing slot receivers and the opponents number one, giving Ertz the prime matchup against the Giants slow footed linebackers. The Giants have allowed double digit fantasy points to each tight end one they have faced this season in Jason Witten and Eric Ebron. Ertz has seen a strong target share in each of his games this season and finished with over 90 yards in each of his matchups. Ertz is a lock to be in most if not all of my lineups this weekend.


Low Cost Dart Throw: WR DeSean Jackson– FanDuel $6,400 / Draftkings $4,600

DeSean got off to a slow start to his Tampa Bay career, but this week he will look to bounce back against the stout Minnesota Vikings defense. Lucky for DeSean, he will avoid Xavier Rhodes and match up against second and third corners who have shown a tendency to make mistakes. DeSean’s deep speed could play a major factor in this game as the long play has been a problem for the Vikings from time to time. Martavis Bryant and Tommylee Lewis have each had big catches against the Vikings through the first two weeks and each ended the game with a 25+ yard per catch average, and we all know DeSean has the most 50+ yard touchdown plays since he has entered the NFL. DeSean is a tourney only play, but if you want to win he is a guy who can help you.  


I’d Avoid: QB Tom Brady – FanDuel $9,400 / Draftkings $7,700

This is especially true on FanDuel where Tom Brady is the most expensive player on the Sunday slate. I rarely want the most expensive QB, but especially when he is more expensive than stalwarts like Julio, Brown, and Bell. Brady absolutely demolished the Saints last week, but the Texans are a different animal. Houston has allowed just one passing touchdown this season and is coming off a ten-day hiatus after playing on a Thursday night with lots of time to gameplan. BOB knows Bill well, and will mix between coverage and pressure to try and rattle Tom Brady whether successfully or not.  All in all, the matchup doesn’t matter here, it is all about allocation of resources and if you play Brady you can’t do the needed things to win your tourney. But if you want to hear about the matchup, just know that the Pats went with a heavy run game they last time they took on Houston and Brady completed under 50% of his passes for under 300 yards and had as many interceptions as he did touchdowns (2).




ØC's Week 3 DFS


Pillar: WR Michael Crabtree – DraftKings $7,400 / FanDuel $7,700

Crabtree is coming off a three-touchdown performance against the defunct NY Jets but will have a tougher test against the Washington Redskins on the road for Sunday Night Football. However, Crabby has been the model of consistency through the first two games. In total, he’s collected 12 of 13 targets for 163 yards and the aforementioned three touchdowns. Josh Norman, the Washington star cornerback, is still ailing from a shoulder injury last weekend and will spend most of his time matched-up with Amari Cooper. Stick with the hot hand and ride Cooper on primetime.


Sleeper: RB James White – DraftKings $5,400 / FanDuel $5,600

In a week where a lot of favored teams are on the road, the Patriots get to play at Gillette. The Houston Texans have a tough defense against the pass but can be very susceptible to fantasy running backs. White racked up eight receptions on eight targets for 85 yards last week and could see similar stat lines all year with Gillislee taking most of the rushing touches. As FanDuel and DraftKings have PPR scoring, White is the perfect “boring” player with a low price to put your lineup over the top.


Low Cost Dart Throw: TE Jack Doyle – DraftKings $3,600 / FanDuel $5,300

Doyle was Jacoby Brissett’s favorite target in Week 2, collecting all eight targets for 79 yards against Arizona. The old adage of the tight end being a rookie/new quarterback’s security blanket still rings true in Indianapolis. This week the Colts square off against the Cleveland Browns who currently allows an average of 23.7 FF points to tight ends. Both Jesse James and Ben Watson teed off on the Browns secondary in the first two weeks of the season and the trend will continue for Doyle this Sunday.


I'd Avoid: QB Drew Brees – DraftKings $7,200 / FanDuel $8,400

Drew Brees can go off for 30 FF points at any given week, but I just don’t like the matchup on the road in Carolina against the toughest fantasy defense vs opposing passers. Granted the Panthers have only faced Brian Hoyer and Tyrod Tayler at the QB position, but even they couldn’t gain more than 193 yards through the air with a touchdown total of…zero. Brees will obviously earn more fantasy points than these two scrubs, but the upside to win your contest just inst there. I suggest the comparably priced Derek Carr or even Kirk Cousins at a further discount.



RB, James White – DraftKings $5,400 – FanDuel $5,600

RB, Mike Gillislee – DraftKings $5,700 – FanDuel $6,800




d-Rx's Week 3 DFS


Pillar: WR A.J. Green - FanDuel $7,500 / DraftKings $8,100

This is the game that A.J. Green gets going. The Packers are middle of the road this season on allowing DFS points, but they are giving up a majority of their yards to the wide receiver. Look for Bill Lazor to target the shit out of A.J. Green, Dalton will have the green light to force it to #18. I'm expecting a huge game for A.J. to break this offense out of it's funk.


Sleeper: RB Derrick Henry - FanDuel $6,400 / DraftKings $ 5,300

Even if DeMarco Murray plays, which I doubt will happen - Derrick Henry is going to be the lead back against the Seahawks this weekend. Tough defense, but through 2 games they are allowing over 5 yards per carry to opposing running backs - plus the Titans have a tough offensive line and Derrick Henry is a tank that no one wants to tackle. I think you will see the winds of change begin here (after building on last weeks big game) and start to see Henry getting more of the carries even when DeMarco is healthy, Henry is just too much of a weapon.


Low Cost Dart Throw: WR Rashard Higgins - FanDuel $5,100  / DraftKings $4,000

Opportunity knocks. Sadly for the Browns, he's their best wide receiver at the moment with Corey Coleman going on the IR and Kenny Britt looking like he forgot how to catch. The only person that can make plays right now through the air is Higgins. He caught 7 balls last week for almost 100 yards, and Kizer is going to need to throw it to somebody. The Colts are the perfect team for the Browns to play this week, as they are 29th at allowing WRs to score for both FanDuel and DraftKings allowing over 40 points to WRs in DraftKings. Value city for Higgins IMO.

I'd Avoid: RB Melvin Gordon - FanDuel $7,600 / DraftKings $7,600

Melvin Gordon will need to continue to do it through the air to be effective against the Chiefs. I can see the Cheifs getting out to an early lead and changing the game script from run to pass. Gordon has 67 yards on the ground on 27 carries thus far, but has been active in the passing game, take away Melvin's week 1 rushing TD against the Broncos, and he's had a shitty season so far. 





Head-to-Head FanDuel Competition

 - Week 3 -


ØC (1-1 | 216.16 pts) vs. d-Rx® (1-1 | 214.26 pts)


ØC vs d-Rx head-to-head FanDuel Competition 




FanDuel Points Allowed - 2017


FanDuel Points Allowed chart thru 2 weeks 





DraftKings Points Allowed - 2017

DraftKings Points Allowed thru 2 weeks 





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