March 21, 2018


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Cleveland Browns

Money Ball: The Sequel

Hate to start out the offseason with the Cleveland Browns, but they are makin’ moves!
Browns acquired: Tyrod Taylor, Jarvis Landry, Damarious Randall
Browns gave up: 2018 3rd-round pick (No. 65), 2018 4th-round pick, 2019 7th-round pick, DeShone Kizer

Building with experienced quality performers that have something to prove, by selling inconsequential draft picks is exactly what Sashi Brown was building up for. It’s a shame he won’t be around to reap the rewards, but these are quality moves for a win-now mentality.

03/09/18, 09:37 PM CST by Wheeler


Tyrod Taylor

Buffalo Bills

Hue Looks To TyGoat

Browns left tackle Joe Thomas, who's pondering his future, is a fan of Tyrod Taylor and has said so on the ThomaHawk Show podcast.

Tyrod is just one season removed (2016) from being the QB11 in average fantasy ppg, including seven 20+ point weeks and six 15+ point weeks. Given the current talent on the O-line and skill position weapons he could improve on those numbers. He has the potential to be this year’s Alex Smith, definitely heading my late-round (12+) QB picks now.

03/09/18, 09:32 PM CST by Wheeler


Deshone Kizer

Cleveland Browns

Packers Get In On The Fun

The Packers have traded for QB DeShone Kizer from the Browns to Green Bay.

This is the best possible scenario for Kizer, who was thrown into the fire last season. Getting the chance to develop and learn behind the best in the business is the best chance he has for longevity.

03/09/18, 09:30 PM CST by Wheeler


Torrey Smith

Philadelphia Eagles

On The Move Again

The Eagles trade WR Torrey Smith to the Panthers for CB Daryl Worley. Torrey Smith could fill the old Ted Ginn role which makes this fairly interesting. Stagg Party says it’s more of a boost for Cam than Torrey himself.

This is an absolute perfect fit, someone who isn’t going to demand the ball, but can take the top off a defense while McCaffrey, Olsen, and Cam work underneath. Torrey is looking like a great late-round flyer.

03/09/18, 09:28 PM CST by Wheeler


DeMarco Murray

Tennessee Titans

Henry Hype Train Has Clear Track

DeMarco Murray was released by the Titans.
No surprise here, expect Derick Henry to be a lead back with 250+ touches, but they will bring in someone that will play the third-down, pass-catching role out of the backfield. I wouldn’t be surprised if they sign someone like Jerick McKinnon or Rex Burkhead, or even Darren Sproles or Charles Sims. There are also plenty of options in the NFL draft, Henry won’t be a true “Bell Cow.”

03/09/18, 09:17 PM CST by Wheeler


Marquise Goodwin

San Francisco 49ers

The Name Says It All

Marquise Goodwin and the 49ers have agreed to a 3yr extension worth $20.3M & 10M guaranteed.

Shanahan has found his big-play threat at a reasonable price. Goodwin caught 56 balls for 962 yards last season, but only had two TD’s. None of his six longest plays (33+ yards) were from Garoppollo so it leads me to believe they will still be looking for a top of the line WR, even with Garcon coming back from injury.

03/09/18, 09:15 PM CST by Wheeler


Jonathan Stewart

Carolina Panthers

The Search Is On

Former Panthers RB Jonathan Stewart is visiting the Seahawks today, source says. Seattle is looking at all options to get that ground game going.

This would be an interesting landing spot for Stewart, but no RB available in free agency is going to do spit behind this Swiss-cheese O-line.

03/09/18, 09:13 PM CST by Wheeler


New York Giants

Building Blocks

NFL draft insider Tony Pauline says "belief" around the league is free agent OG Andrew Norwell signing with the Giants is "a done deal."
The top guard on the market, Norwell was one of ex-Panthers GM Dave Gettleman's most-prized discoveries as an undrafted free agent. Gettleman now runs the Giants, who have needs all over the line.

I like anything the Giants can do to repair this disheveled O-line. Building a line through free-agency is almost always a better option than through the draft, but I would still like to see them trade back in the draft and grab Quenton Nelson, OG, Notre Dame.

03/09/18, 09:11 PM CST by Wheeler


Dion Lewis

New England Patriots

Pass Catching Backs Set To Dominate

On first downs this year, the Eagles allow a 65% success rate on RB-passes. That ranks 29th in the league. Dion Lewis averaged 6.5 YPA and a 59% success rate, and James White averaged 7.7 YPA and a 58% success rate on first down passes this season.

02/04/18, 10:36 AM CST by Wheeler


James White

New England Patriots

Pass Catching Backs Set To Dominate

On first downs this year, the Eagles allow a 65% success rate on RB-passes. That ranks 29th in the league. Dion Lewis averaged 6.5 YPA and a 59% success rate, and James White averaged 7.7 YPA and a 58% success rate on first down passes this season.

02/04/18, 10:36 AM CST by Wheeler


Philadelphia Eagles

Attack With 11

The Patriots defense is particularly susceptible to runs out of 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRs), allowing a 61% success rate and 6.0 YPC to offenses when rushing from this formation. The Eagles are one of the most run heavy teams from 11 personnel, recording nearly 60% of their total rushes from 11 formation. The Patriots haven’t faced teams like this often, the teams the Pats faced in the playoffs, Tennessee and Jacksonville were last and 5th lowest respectively rushing from 11 formation. This is a massive advantage for the Eagles if they recognize it and use it.

02/04/18, 10:32 AM CST by Wheeler


Jay Ajayi

Philadelphia Eagles

To The Left, To The Left

New England started the season off with one of the worst rush defenses in the entire league, but things have really shifted over the second half of the year. Prior to their Week 9 bye, the Patriots had allowed a 44.70% Success Rate to opposing running backs, the third-worst in the league. That's dropped to about 38% since, and they've had the fifth-best rush defense by Success Rate since Week 12. New England's especially been good at stopping runs to the left side of the field, which just so happens to be where Jay Ajayi has really made a mark since joining the Eagles in Week 9.
I don’t look for Ajayi to make his mark in this game. I know it’s a lazy narrative, but a Blount revenge game seems to really be in the cards here.

02/04/18, 10:30 AM CST by Wheeler


Zach Ertz

Philadelphia Eagles

Pats Could Hit'em Where It Ertz

Zach Ertz leads the Eagles in targets (39) with Foles under center, drawing at least eight in three of their four full games together. Keyed by FS Devin McCourty and SS Patrick Chung, the Pats allowed the NFL’s tenth-fewest receiving yards to tight ends (720) this season, only four opposing tight ends have reached 50 yards through 18 Patriots games.
If Foles continues to pepper Ertz with targets we could see a big game for Chung or McCourty.

02/04/18, 10:25 AM CST by Wheeler


Nelson Agholor

Philadelphia Eagles

Plenty Of Fluids

The Eagles’ biggest pass-catcher personnel mismatch is Nelson Agholor against Patriots slot corner Eric Rowe. Rowe can struggle with quick change of direction, Agholor’s foremost strength. Agholor runs 87% of his routes in the slot, and New England allowed solid games to Eric Decker (6/85/0) in the Divisional Round, and Allen Hurns (6/80/0) in the AFC title game. Agholor still ranks second behind Ertz in Foles targets (29), but has had a surprisingly quiet playoffs with just 7 targets.
This will have to change if the Eagles plan on moving the ball, but Agholor has been sick with the flu for the past few days. He received intravenous fluids Saturday and will play, but it doesn’t sound like he’ll be 100%.

02/04/18, 10:22 AM CST by Wheeler


Danny Amendola

New England Patriots

Danny Playoffs

The Eagles finished second worst this season in percentage of passing yards allowed coming after the catch. Philadelphia struggled on short and intermediate throws this season, specifically to the middle of the field, where they allowed the third-most yards per passing play in the league. Brady was a top-five player in passer rating on these types of tosses. Amendola's been a monster in this year's playoffs for New England, grabbing hold of 22 targets in just two contests, accounting for over 24% of New England's targets. He should continue to play a role on Super Bowl Sunday.

02/04/18, 10:20 AM CST by Wheeler


Rex Burkhead

New England Patriots

Rex Back

Despite being listed as questionable for Sunday’s AFC Championship game vs. Jaguars, it appears as though Patriots’ RB Rex Burkhead will play.
This will cut into the 13 targets Amendola saw last week.

01/20/18, 10:49 PM CST by Wheeler


Adam Thielen

Minnesota Vikings

Making The Wright Move?

Adam Thielen (back) is questionable for Sunday's NFC Championship game against the Eagles.
He's fully expected to play after limited practices the last two days. He probably won’t be 100 percent so if you’re putting in a line-up you might want to pivot to Diggs or save some money and drop down to Jarius Wright who grabbed three-of-six targets for 56 yards Sunday and has established himself as the number three WR in this offense.

01/20/18, 10:31 PM CST by Wheeler


Leonard Fournette

Jacksonville Jaguars

Ankle In Question Again

Fournette aggravated his ankle in the Divisional Round and was limited early in the week. He was left off the injury report for Sunday's AFC Championship game. Fournette saw a heavy workload last week getting 27 touches in Jacksonville's upset of the Steelers. T.J. Yeldon rushed five times for 20 yards and a touchdown and caught 3-of-3 targets for 57 yards. If you’re looking for a cheaper option I expect we see Yeldon to be used to keep Fournette from aggravating the injury early.

01/20/18, 10:23 PM CST by Wheeler


Tom Brady

New England Patriots

Give Him A Hand

Reports are that Tom Brady threw the ball "incredibly well" during Friday's practice. He is listed as questionable for Sunday's AFC Championship game against Jacksonville, but I don’t think there was any real doubt that he’d play. Keep in mind what D-Rex spoke about on the Pyro Podcast 303 andScott Barrett tweeted about Brady last week:
Weeks 1-10: 21.2 fantasy points per game, 110.9 passer rating
Weeks 11-17: 14.2 fantasy points per game, 87.3 passer rating
The hand injury on top of his achilles injury, as well as going against the Jags #1 rated pass defense could keep the Patriots attack grounded this week. Lewis is the obvious play, but if Burkhead (Q) comes back it could be he or White that steals the show.

01/20/18, 10:22 PM CST by Wheeler


Tom Brady

New England Patriots

Tom Still Terrific?

Tom Brady was first listed on the team's injury report with an Achilles injury heading in to Week 11.
Weeks 1-10: 21.2 fantasy points per game, 110.9 passer rating
Weeks 11-17: 14.2 fantasy points per game, 87.3 passer rating

Fantasy Goo: This should line up for a good week for Brady, Tennessee is 8th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, but just below average against QB’s. The Patriots are 13 point favorites on Saturday Night, if Brady doesn’t do it at home in prime-time then something is wrong.

01/09/18, 07:30 PM CST by Wheeler


Alvin Kamara

New Orleans Saints

Primary Role Shifting

Saints have run 5 times at/inside opponent's 5-yard line over last 4 weeks (including playoffs):
Alvin Kamara 3 carries, Zach Line 1, Mark Ingram 1. Kamara was in on all 3 Saints run plays at/inside 5 vs. Panthers last week, including Line's 1-yard TD run.

Fantasy Goo: If you’re trying to decide between Kamara and Ingram for the playoff run, Kamara looks to be the much better play.

01/09/18, 07:20 PM CST by Wheeler


DFS Advice for FanDuel and DraftKings for the 2017 in Week 4

The Daily Dos & Don'ts - Week 4 DFS Advice (2017)

Posted by d-Rx on 10/01/17

by   The Archer


More Articals


Stagg Party's Week 4 DFS



Pillar: WR, Julio Jones – FanDuel - $8,400 / DraftKings - $8,800

Julio Jones has gotten off to a slow start to the season based on everyone’s expectations and hasn’t had a full week of practice this week, but you know what YOLO. Those factors combined with seeing red in the matchup column should keep Julio’s ownership at a manageable rate. The Bills rank sixth against opposing wide receivers so far this season and have yet to allow a passing touchdown on 111 passing attempts. But for funsies, here is a list of the corners the Bills are currently trotting out there: Tre'Davious White, Shareece Wright, E.J. Gaines, and Leonard Johnson. Do any of those guys sound familiar? If they do you spend too much time on this game which is commendable, but for fucks sake let me know which of these guys you think can guard Julio Jones. Julio’s targets have increased every week, and all that shit talking Sark did about wanting to get him involved in the redzone has to happen sometime, this could be a week where Julio shines.


Sleepers: WR, Chris Hogan – FanDuel - $6,900 / DraftKings - $6,000

I don’t know if you know this or not but Chris Hogan used to play lacrosse, that has nothing to do with anything but I figured you needed to know. Hogan the football player has gotten off to a hot start this season nearly matching Brandin Cooks in targets, matching him in receptions, and has three touchdowns to Cooks’ two. Expanding the sample a little bit, including the playoffs last year, Hogan has five touchdowns over his last five games. Hogan has week winning upside catching the rock (what do they even call the ball in lacrosse?) from Brady as he has multiple touchdown games in his range of outcomes. The Panthers allowed three touchdowns to Saints wide receivers last week, and Brady has been on such a hot streak over the last two weeks, I am tossing in Hogan everywhere possible.


Low Cost Dart Throw: TE, Evan Engram – FanDuel - $5,200 / DraftKings - $3,000

Much has been made about the success of rookie tight ends in fantasy football, so I guess it is good for all of us that Evan Engram is a wide receiver masquerading as a tight end and still has that designation. Right now, Engram is tied for sixth among tight ends in targets and receptions, seventh in yards, and has a touchdown catch which only 26 tight ends have one so far this season. In PPR scoring like DraftKings, Engram does not have a game with fewer than 8.4 points and has gotten at least 5 targets in every game. In DK pricing, Engram is basically free. His matchup may seem tough at first glance as the Bucks have allowed just 46 receiving yards to opposing tight ends this season, but check the Friday injury report and get back to me. Just because I don’t want you to leave the site I’ll just tell you, the Bucs will be missing the following LBs Kwon Alexander, Lavonte David; SS T.J. Ward. That is a lot of speed and experience in the linebacking and tight end coverage core.


I’d Avoid: QB, Derek Carr – FanDuel - $7,900 – Draftkings - $5,800

This is especially true on FanDuel where Derek Carr is tied for the third highest quarterback on the slate. The Denver Broncos haven’t been as dominant against the quarterbacks as they were during the 2016 season, allowing 17.1 fantasy points a game to opposing passers, compared to 13.8 fantasy points in 2016, but they have owned Derek Carr. Derek’s fantasy point totals in his last three matchups against Denver: 7.7, 13.0, and 9.9. Carr’s top weapons Amari Cooper/ Michael Crabtree or Michael Crabtree/Amari Cooper if you prefer that route have also really struggled against Denver. With limited upside in this matchup I am not where near close to paying a top five price.



ØC Week 4 DFS

Pillar: WR, AJ Green – FanDuel $8,000 – DraftKings $8,600

It’s not often that Draft Kings prices a wideout higher than FanDuel, but they may be onto something this week. Green averages seven receptions for 149 yards and a touchdown in his last two meetings with the Browns. AJ boasts six receiving touchdowns and averages at least eight targets per game in his career against Cleveland. New offensive coordinator Bill Lazor already made a point to get Green the touches he needs in Week 3 and I don’t expect anything short of a 20 FF point performance in Week 4.


Sleeper: QB, Trevor Siemian – FanDuel $7,500 – DraftKings $5,200

Trevor Siemian posted 22.6 FF points in both of Denver’s home games this season, then put up a dismal 7.6 FF points on the road. Trevor excels at Mile High and Oakland has been very generous to opposing quarterbacks, allowing five touchdowns with no interceptions. He is currently priced at QB #27 (DK), so you won’t get a better deal than that for a passer that can post 20+ FF points! The Bronco rush attack is diverse and healthy to boot, so you might as well save some money with a lot of upside!


Low Cost Dart Throw: WR, Marvin Jones Jr. – FanDuel $5,700 / DraftKings $4,000

Jones Jr. has collected a receiving touchdown in each of his last two games but faces a tough Minnesota team on the road. Expect a lot of passing in this matchup as the Vikings are the number one defense against fantasy running backs. However, stud defensive back Xavier Rhodes should be covering Golden Tate which means more opportunity for Marvin to reach the production levels he experienced from early last season. 


I'd Avoid: RB, Devonta Freeman – FanDuel $8,500 / DraftKings $7,300

Freeman will face a tough Bills defense in Atlanta this weekend. While averaging 18 FF points per game in half PPR formats, no running back has accrued more than 12 FF points against Buffalo in the first three weeks of the season. Jamaal Charles was the only RB to score thus far and no back has crossed the goal line for a receiving touchdown. Tevin Coleman is the bigger back and may be used more often against the brutish DLine of the Bills. Use your budget money elsewhere this week for sure victory!



RB, Jay Ajayi – FanDuel $7,800 – DraftKings $7,400

WR, DeVante Parker – FanDuel $6,500 – DraftKings $6,700





d-Rx's Week 4 DFS


Pillar: WR, Odell Beckham Jr. - FanDuel $9,100 / DraftKings $8,900

The Tampa Bay Bucs are letting up a ton of points to WRs (44.6 on FanDuel & 52.8 on DraftKings), more than any other team by a large margin. Odell seems to be back, when I see the best against the worst - I like to take that matchup.


Sleeper: RB, Joe Mixon - FanDuel $5,600 / DraftKings $5,700

New offensive coordinator showed us that he likes Mixon the most last week in his first game calling the plays for the Bengals. Against the Browns, a team the Bengals know they have to beat and make a statement against, I see Mixon breaking out and having his best game in his short NFL career today. Mixon is in all my DFS lineups this week.


Low Cost Dart Throw: TE, Tyler Kroft - FanDuel $4,900  / DraftKings $2,600

Eifert is out again, and the Cleveland Browns are bottom 5 against the tight end position. If you have a stacked team in other spots and need to grab a throw in for a low salary, I like this one as a close my eyes and throw that shit against the wall and hope it hits the bullseye.

I'd Avoid: WR, Amari Cooper - FanDuel $7,500 / DraftKings $6,000

Amari has been terrible this season. Crabtree has been ruled out so the Broncos defense now can focus purely on Amari Cooper. This spells trouble for one of the most over-rated WRs in the NFL thus far in 2017.





Head-to-Head FanDuel Competition

 - Week 4 -


ØC (1-2 | 299.58 pts) vs. d-Rx® (2-1 | 301.24 pts)


ØC vs d-Rx head-to-head FanDuel Competition - week 4 



FanDuel Points Allowed - 2017


FanDuel Points Allowed chart thru 3 weeks 





DraftKings Points Allowed - 2017

DraftKings Points Allowed thru 3 weeks 





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