July 22, 2018


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Aaron Jones

Green Bay Packers

Cream Rises To The Top

Jones’ 5.55 YPC on first- and second-down carries trailed only Alvin Kamara (6.24) for best in the league last year. Jamaal Williams averaged 3.80 YPC on first- and second-down in 2017.

He’s slid two rounds since the announcement of his two game suspension, he is a screaming value if you can get him in the ninth round. We already knew he was going to be competing in a crowded backfield so missing two games really shouldn’t be a big hit to his overall production. The likelihood of either of the other two backs taking over the role is slim, Jones should be able to carve out 10 touches a game when he gets back with fresh legs. They are all high risk for injuries so I’m hoping this added rest will help Jones in the long run.

07/21/18, 06:51 PM CDT by Wheeler


Nelson Agholor

Philadelphia Eagles

Solidified Role

In 2017, Nelson Agholor had 62 recs, 768 yds, 9 TDs and 7 games of WR2 or better. There is no reason he wouldn't maintain this output, even with additions in the offense. Agholor had to carve out a role for himself and beat out incumbent Jordan Matthews. This year he'll be the main slot receiver and have an established role from the start.

07/21/18, 06:49 PM CDT by Wheeler


Sterling Shepard

New York Giants

Buying The Slot Receiver in a Shurmur Offense

Sterling Shepard is currently 24 years old with a 124/1,414/10 career line, in two seasons. He finished 2017 as the WR42 in 11 games (WR22 in FP/G) with only a 13.9% target share. He finished 2016 as the WR36 as a rookie. He's currently being drafted as the WR42 in MFL10’s.

Shepard does see more targets (+2.7), get more receptions (+2.3), more yards (+28), and get about three more PPR points per game when Beckham is out. But he still averages over 11 PPR points per game when he is playing. Apparently Shepard is more open in the end-zone when Beckham is playing, as he averages three times as many TD’s when they are both playing.

07/21/18, 06:47 PM CDT by Wheeler


Allen Hurns

Jacksonville Jaguars

Plenty of Targets in Dallas

He’s been hampered by injuries over the past couple of years, but when he has stayed healthy and gotten the targets he has been successful. His best season was in 2015, he had 105 Targets for 64 Receptions at 1031 Yards for 10 TDs, that’s 16.11 Yards Per Reception and a 61% Catch Rate coming from Blake Bortles. He finished as the WR14 in Standard Scoring and WR18 in PPR.

He's an amazing value in the 11th round of current best-ball drafts.

07/21/18, 06:41 PM CDT by Wheeler


Eric Ebron

Detroit Lions

Second Team Breath's New Life Into TE

Outside Brady, Luck is the only other QB to support 2 TE's, both Fleener and Allen had 8 TD's with Luck. Frank Reich runs 2 TE sets very successfully - see: 2018 Eagles. TE1's for Coach Reich have never finished worse than 12th. Yes, Doyle would seem like the obvious choice after last season, but that was with Brissett who needed a quick dump off outlet. Luck isn't a check-down machine.

Eric Ebron has lined up "everywhere" in the Colts offense. And the new tight end already is beginning to feel at home in Indianapolis. Without a strong WR2, Ebron could see a large number of targets. The Colt's line-up in two TE sets more than any other team in the NFL.

07/21/18, 06:36 PM CDT by Wheeler


Matt Breida

San Francisco 49ers

Filling Coleman Role

“One guy who stood out at Niners practice to me was RB Matt Breida. No one talks about him, but the dude is gonna get some run this year. Fast downhill player.”

This is just some more camp hype from a beat reporter, but if they don’t get another running back through trade or free-agency Brieda is going to see plenty of touches to pay off being picked in the 15th round of fantasy drafts. McKinnon has never had over 205 touches in a season, that leaves plenty of opportunity in a Shanahan offense.

07/21/18, 06:28 PM CDT by Wheeler


LeSean McCoy

Buffalo Bills

McCoy starring down 30 with uncertainty

LeSean McCoy, despite ending the year as the #7 fantasy running back in standard leagues was a slight disappointment for fantasy owners last year. McCoy played in all 16 regular season games, but only cracked 100 yards rushing 4 times, and averaged 4.0 yards per rush, which was 23rd in the NFL. That all happened with a formidable QB with a scrambling ability that defenses had to respect, presumably allowing McCoy some more room before tacklers ascended.
The Bills have the least sexy QB situation in the entire NFL in my opinion. With Tyrod Taylor at the helm for most of the season last year, the bills had the 31st passing offense. None of the QBs on the Bills roster are considered mobile and without a wide receiver on their roster worthy of drafting in any fantasy formats, defenses can stack the box against McCoy. McCoy will be overused, underperform and probably get hurt because of it. McCoy’s ADP is in the second round, but wouldn’t touch him until the fourth or beginning of the fifth round.

06/29/18, 12:42 PM CDT by C-wags


Tyreek Hill

Kansas City Chiefs

Hill lookin' busty with chiefs new look.

Tyreek Hill had a great 2017, amounting 75 receptions for 1183 yards and 7 touchdowns in 15 games. He’s currently being drafted in the middle of the third round in standard leagues, which would appear to be a great value. However, with promoted RB coach Eric Bieniemy presumably in-line to be the primary play caller, a new QB, Travis Kelce receiving the #1 target share and the addition of Sammy Watkins, I expect Hill’s numbers to decrease dramatically.
I believe Hill to be more of a boom or bust player this year. There’s no denying his break-away speed and ability to separate from defenders, and with Mahomes cannon of an arm, I expect them to connect deep on occasion. However, I believe Sammy Watkins to be the more complete receiver and likely to take more of the target share from Hill. Bundled with the change in offensive strategy toward the end of last year to run the ball more, the change to a young QB presumably resulting in a more conservative game plan, I see a major decline in the amount of touches Hill will get and see him as more of a 5-6 round flex play guy.

06/21/18, 10:54 AM CDT by C-wags


Eric Ebron

Detroit Lions

Ebron Could Use Some Luck

Colts signed TE Eric Ebron, formerly of the Lions, to a two-year contract. Coach Frank Reich called Ebron an "elite tight end."

The last time we saw Andrew Luck healthy (2016), the Colts used 2+ TE sets at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL and had the 6th-highest target share to TEs.

04/01/18, 11:32 AM CDT by Wheeler


Carlos Hyde

San Francisco 49ers

Hyde and Seek

Browns agreed to terms with RB Carlos Hyde, formerly of the 49ers, on a three-year, $15 million contract.

Obtaining Hyde has several trickle-down effects; first it replaces Crowell who signed with the Jets, it probably diminishes Duke Johnson’s value a bit. Hyde is a better all-around back than Crowell was and will certainly take over the goal-line work seeing that he’s got 20+ pounds on Duke. It also reduces the likelihood that Cleveland takes Saquon Barkley with the 4th pick in the draft. They will most likely look to draft a defensive player (Chubb) or trade down again.

04/01/18, 11:28 AM CDT by Wheeler


Jerick McKinnon

Minnesota Vikings

McKinnon Goes West For Gold-Rush

49ers agreed to terms with RB Jerick McKinnon, formerly of the Vikings, on a four-year, $30 million contract.

McKinnon averaged a ho-hum 3.8 yards a carry for the Vikings and scored three rushing touchdowns. By contrast, San Francisco's former lead runner, Carlos Hyde, averaged 3.9 yards an attempt in 2017 and had eight rushing touchdowns.

It appears as though Shanahan is enamored with McKinnon's athletic metrics, but I'm not so sure he was "pounding the table" to get him. This move could push the Niner's to cut Joe Williams.

04/01/18, 11:12 AM CDT by Wheeler


Mike Wallace

Baltimore Ravens

Eagles Keep Improving

Eagles signed WR Mike Wallace to a one-year contract.
Mike Wallace can still move posting a top five max speed among wide receivers last season. He will fill the void left by Torrey Smith as a speed vertical threat.

04/01/18, 11:08 AM CDT by Wheeler


Terrelle Pryor

Washington Redskins

Jets Searching For Weapons

Jets agreed to terms with WR Terrelle Pryor, formerly of Washington and Cleveland.

Second year in a row on a new team doesn’t really help Pryor's cause, but I like the idea of him on the field with Teddy Bridgewater at some point. I would imagine, with some creativity, the Jets could really design some innovative gadget plays.
The Jets receiving corps really looks like a bunch of question marks at this point though, no telling what the week-to-week outcome will be with these guys.
Jermaine Kearse: 65 catches, 810 yards, 5 touchdowns (2017)
Robby Anderson: 63 catches, 941 yards, 7 touchdowns (2017)
Quincy Enunwa: 58 catches, 857 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)
Terrelle Pryor: 77 catches, 1007 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)

04/01/18, 11:04 AM CDT by Wheeler


Carlos Henderson

Denver Broncos

Sleeper Watch

Broncos coach Vance Joseph said the team is "counting on" Carlos Henderson making an impact in 2018.

If you are paying attention to Staggs projections there is plenty of opportunity for Henderson to step into a solid number of targets in the slot. Henderson was hindered by injury and awful QB play last year. Being drafted in the 18th round or later in best-ball leagues, Henderson is the late round flyer that should be on your radar.

04/01/18, 11:00 AM CDT by Wheeler


Ben Watson

Baltimore Ravens

Watson Returns To Big Easy

Saints signed TE Ben Watson, formerly of the Ravens, to a one-year contract.

Watson had 74 catches on 110 targets for 825 yards and 6 TD’s when he was with the Saints in 2015. After missing 2016 he had a pretty good year with Baltimore last year despite an anemic offense, with 61 catches on 79 targets for 522 yards and 4 TD’s. He’s not a bad late round flyer TE. He’s basically free right now, but I expect by the time the season starts he’ll be being drafted within the top 20 at the position.

04/01/18, 10:54 AM CDT by Wheeler


Jeff Janis

Green Bay Packers

Janis Truthers Challenged

Browns officially signed former Packers’ WR Jeff Janis.
The combine superstar never amounted to anything in Green Bay, I highly doubt Cleveland is the place for him to finally break-out.

04/01/18, 10:50 AM CDT by Wheeler


Thomas Rawls

Seattle Seahawks

Jets Sign Rawls

Rawls had five RB1 games in 2015, one in 2016, and has been a disappointment since. He’s not worth your time in fantasy, but he could cause enough disruption in the Jets backfield to cut any upside we might have hoped for from Isaiah Crowell.

04/01/18, 10:48 AM CDT by Wheeler


Allen Robinson

Jacksonville Jaguars

Coo coo ca choo Mr. Robinson

Bears signed WR Allen Robinson, formerly of the Jaguars, to a three-year, $42 million contract.

This is a great move for Robinson and Chicago. Nagy’s offense and the young QB, Trubiski, should benefit Robinson at least as much as Bortles did, and Chicago gets the top WR in free agency.
Everyone on the team will be in a new scheme so there will be an adjustment, but as they start to gel we should see a big second half. Robinson’s recovery from a torn ACL doesn’t scare me away from drafting him in the late third/early fourth, his current MFL10 ADP is 43 overall while his Draft app ADP is 59.9. I expect Robinson to be somewhere in the range of 75 receptions, for 1100 yards and 8 TD’s.

03/24/18, 08:25 PM CDT by Wheeler


Sammy Watkins

Los Angeles Rams

KC Building Strong Air Attack

Chiefs signed Sammy Watkins, formerly of the Rams, to a three-year, $48 million contract.

I’m a big Sammy truther so getting him in the 5th or 6th round is a pure power move. His current Draft app ADP of 87.1 is an absolute steal, his MFL10 ADP of 69.5 is still a great value in my opinion. There are quite a few options for high targets in KC so I don’t expect him to see the 128 targets he saw his rookie year, but he should definitely see more than the 70 he saw last year. He’ll have an entire offseason to work with the near-rookie QB, and at age 25 he should have enough burst left to have a 70 catch, 1050 yd, 8TD line. For his career he has 16 receptions on 30 targets for 12 TD’s in the Red Zone, and 9 receptions on 13 targets, for 8 TD’s inside the opponents 10. He should be the exact WR the Chiefs need to get over the hump. As a team the Chiefs were 34/75 for 13 TD’s in the Red-Zone last year and 12/24 for 10 TD inside the 10.

03/24/18, 08:19 PM CDT by Wheeler


Kirk Cousins

Washington Redskins

Vikings Like That

Kirk Cousins plans to sign a three-year, fully-guaranteed contract from the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday. The deal is believed to be for around $86 million, and reports are it will be fully-guaranteed, a landmark for an NFL free agent.

Should be a lateral move for Kirk as far as fantasy, better WR’s, but fewer passes thrown in this offense. A healthy Dalvin Cook should be able to run out the clock if they are up in the second half of games and take the ball out of Cousins hands near the end zone. It should also help the overall efficiency of the offense so all in all it increases his floor, but cuts any garbage-time production we’ve seen with Washington. Kyle Rudolph becomes a big benefactor here, Cousins loves his TE, especially near the end-zone.

03/24/18, 08:16 PM CDT by Wheeler


DFS Advice for FanDuel and DraftKings for the 2017 in Week 4

The Daily Dos & Don'ts - Week 4 DFS Advice (2017)

Posted by d-Rx on 10/01/17

by   The Archer


More Articals


Stagg Party's Week 4 DFS



Pillar: WR, Julio Jones – FanDuel - $8,400 / DraftKings - $8,800

Julio Jones has gotten off to a slow start to the season based on everyone’s expectations and hasn’t had a full week of practice this week, but you know what YOLO. Those factors combined with seeing red in the matchup column should keep Julio’s ownership at a manageable rate. The Bills rank sixth against opposing wide receivers so far this season and have yet to allow a passing touchdown on 111 passing attempts. But for funsies, here is a list of the corners the Bills are currently trotting out there: Tre'Davious White, Shareece Wright, E.J. Gaines, and Leonard Johnson. Do any of those guys sound familiar? If they do you spend too much time on this game which is commendable, but for fucks sake let me know which of these guys you think can guard Julio Jones. Julio’s targets have increased every week, and all that shit talking Sark did about wanting to get him involved in the redzone has to happen sometime, this could be a week where Julio shines.


Sleepers: WR, Chris Hogan – FanDuel - $6,900 / DraftKings - $6,000

I don’t know if you know this or not but Chris Hogan used to play lacrosse, that has nothing to do with anything but I figured you needed to know. Hogan the football player has gotten off to a hot start this season nearly matching Brandin Cooks in targets, matching him in receptions, and has three touchdowns to Cooks’ two. Expanding the sample a little bit, including the playoffs last year, Hogan has five touchdowns over his last five games. Hogan has week winning upside catching the rock (what do they even call the ball in lacrosse?) from Brady as he has multiple touchdown games in his range of outcomes. The Panthers allowed three touchdowns to Saints wide receivers last week, and Brady has been on such a hot streak over the last two weeks, I am tossing in Hogan everywhere possible.


Low Cost Dart Throw: TE, Evan Engram – FanDuel - $5,200 / DraftKings - $3,000

Much has been made about the success of rookie tight ends in fantasy football, so I guess it is good for all of us that Evan Engram is a wide receiver masquerading as a tight end and still has that designation. Right now, Engram is tied for sixth among tight ends in targets and receptions, seventh in yards, and has a touchdown catch which only 26 tight ends have one so far this season. In PPR scoring like DraftKings, Engram does not have a game with fewer than 8.4 points and has gotten at least 5 targets in every game. In DK pricing, Engram is basically free. His matchup may seem tough at first glance as the Bucks have allowed just 46 receiving yards to opposing tight ends this season, but check the Friday injury report and get back to me. Just because I don’t want you to leave the site I’ll just tell you, the Bucs will be missing the following LBs Kwon Alexander, Lavonte David; SS T.J. Ward. That is a lot of speed and experience in the linebacking and tight end coverage core.


I’d Avoid: QB, Derek Carr – FanDuel - $7,900 – Draftkings - $5,800

This is especially true on FanDuel where Derek Carr is tied for the third highest quarterback on the slate. The Denver Broncos haven’t been as dominant against the quarterbacks as they were during the 2016 season, allowing 17.1 fantasy points a game to opposing passers, compared to 13.8 fantasy points in 2016, but they have owned Derek Carr. Derek’s fantasy point totals in his last three matchups against Denver: 7.7, 13.0, and 9.9. Carr’s top weapons Amari Cooper/ Michael Crabtree or Michael Crabtree/Amari Cooper if you prefer that route have also really struggled against Denver. With limited upside in this matchup I am not where near close to paying a top five price.



ØC Week 4 DFS

Pillar: WR, AJ Green – FanDuel $8,000 – DraftKings $8,600

It’s not often that Draft Kings prices a wideout higher than FanDuel, but they may be onto something this week. Green averages seven receptions for 149 yards and a touchdown in his last two meetings with the Browns. AJ boasts six receiving touchdowns and averages at least eight targets per game in his career against Cleveland. New offensive coordinator Bill Lazor already made a point to get Green the touches he needs in Week 3 and I don’t expect anything short of a 20 FF point performance in Week 4.


Sleeper: QB, Trevor Siemian – FanDuel $7,500 – DraftKings $5,200

Trevor Siemian posted 22.6 FF points in both of Denver’s home games this season, then put up a dismal 7.6 FF points on the road. Trevor excels at Mile High and Oakland has been very generous to opposing quarterbacks, allowing five touchdowns with no interceptions. He is currently priced at QB #27 (DK), so you won’t get a better deal than that for a passer that can post 20+ FF points! The Bronco rush attack is diverse and healthy to boot, so you might as well save some money with a lot of upside!


Low Cost Dart Throw: WR, Marvin Jones Jr. – FanDuel $5,700 / DraftKings $4,000

Jones Jr. has collected a receiving touchdown in each of his last two games but faces a tough Minnesota team on the road. Expect a lot of passing in this matchup as the Vikings are the number one defense against fantasy running backs. However, stud defensive back Xavier Rhodes should be covering Golden Tate which means more opportunity for Marvin to reach the production levels he experienced from early last season. 


I'd Avoid: RB, Devonta Freeman – FanDuel $8,500 / DraftKings $7,300

Freeman will face a tough Bills defense in Atlanta this weekend. While averaging 18 FF points per game in half PPR formats, no running back has accrued more than 12 FF points against Buffalo in the first three weeks of the season. Jamaal Charles was the only RB to score thus far and no back has crossed the goal line for a receiving touchdown. Tevin Coleman is the bigger back and may be used more often against the brutish DLine of the Bills. Use your budget money elsewhere this week for sure victory!



RB, Jay Ajayi – FanDuel $7,800 – DraftKings $7,400

WR, DeVante Parker – FanDuel $6,500 – DraftKings $6,700





d-Rx's Week 4 DFS


Pillar: WR, Odell Beckham Jr. - FanDuel $9,100 / DraftKings $8,900

The Tampa Bay Bucs are letting up a ton of points to WRs (44.6 on FanDuel & 52.8 on DraftKings), more than any other team by a large margin. Odell seems to be back, when I see the best against the worst - I like to take that matchup.


Sleeper: RB, Joe Mixon - FanDuel $5,600 / DraftKings $5,700

New offensive coordinator showed us that he likes Mixon the most last week in his first game calling the plays for the Bengals. Against the Browns, a team the Bengals know they have to beat and make a statement against, I see Mixon breaking out and having his best game in his short NFL career today. Mixon is in all my DFS lineups this week.


Low Cost Dart Throw: TE, Tyler Kroft - FanDuel $4,900  / DraftKings $2,600

Eifert is out again, and the Cleveland Browns are bottom 5 against the tight end position. If you have a stacked team in other spots and need to grab a throw in for a low salary, I like this one as a close my eyes and throw that shit against the wall and hope it hits the bullseye.

I'd Avoid: WR, Amari Cooper - FanDuel $7,500 / DraftKings $6,000

Amari has been terrible this season. Crabtree has been ruled out so the Broncos defense now can focus purely on Amari Cooper. This spells trouble for one of the most over-rated WRs in the NFL thus far in 2017.





Head-to-Head FanDuel Competition

 - Week 4 -


ØC (1-2 | 299.58 pts) vs. d-Rx® (2-1 | 301.24 pts)


ØC vs d-Rx head-to-head FanDuel Competition - week 4 



FanDuel Points Allowed - 2017


FanDuel Points Allowed chart thru 3 weeks 





DraftKings Points Allowed - 2017

DraftKings Points Allowed thru 3 weeks 





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