Week 7
October 21, 2018
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Anthony staggs

@PyroStag


Eddie Jackson is really struggling with his tackling in this one.


07:49 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Anthony staggs

@PyroStag


RT @AdamSchefter: Jaguars benched Blake Bortles for Cody Kessler.


07:11 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Pyromaniac.com

@pyroman1ac


RT @RumfordJohnny: Jarvis Landry seems like the easiest fade this week. He’s the Julio of slot WRs.


07:11 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Pk ripper 🤜💥🤛

@amaze652


Good news for the #Bills nobody retired at the half this week....


06:48 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Mo

@pyromaniacmo


What DOES Blount have over Patricia, the Lion’s coach? K Johnson busts a 71 yard run. Two plays later,Blount can no… https://t.co/zFhhV1tS63


05:48 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Pyromaniac.com

@pyroman1ac


Why are folks still surprised by all the missed-extra points this season... they moved it back 13 yards in 2015. No… https://t.co/Su9bdXvfOG


05:46 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Waz

@WazNFL


@ScottFish24 I agree, but that's an odd way to type Tyreek Hill.


05:19 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Wheeler

@FF_Wheeler


RT @Cole_Kev: QB runs inside the two are the highest success rate play. You run a sneak or draw with Mariota, especially with the… https://t.co/6qXmjQI4RZ


05:06 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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@amaze652


RT @csdfantasy: This week's Head-2-Head players are Taylor Gabriel and Albert Wilson #FantasyFootball #NFL https://t.co/yAaWOY2WbG https://t.co/A2krNIzJ8N


04:52 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Pk ripper 🤜💥🤛

@amaze652


RT @evansilva: Uh oh. https://t.co/1I02IozH0w


04:52 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Pk ripper 🤜💥🤛

@amaze652


RT @AdamSchefter: Jacksonville's newly-acquired RB Carlos Hyde is inactive today vs. Houston.


04:52 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Pk ripper 🤜💥🤛

@amaze652


RT @nyjets: Straight fire. #ColorRush #MINvsNYJ https://t.co/DW7F7qslYq


04:52 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Wheeler

@FF_Wheeler


RT @pyroman1ac: Week 7 Pyro Player Rankings by @PyroStag & @FF_Wheeler QBs: https://t.co/58wL7Y0hWZ RBs: https://t.co/r2jGtDe8hC… https://t.co/Ry7ORyIfDC


04:48 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Mo

@pyromaniacmo


RT @SkullKingRyan: Check out the larest podcast where Ryan and Justin take you through about half of this weekend's games to see who y… https://t.co/NDK7JVwKg6


04:44 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Mo

@pyromaniacmo


Anzah is inactive for the Lions D. But I could see the Lions getting up in this game forcing Mia to throw. If so, D… https://t.co/o5shvi3PLl


04:43 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Anthony staggs

@PyroStag


RT @CTowersCBS: I think Melvin Gordon’s job is safe, you guys.


04:29 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Anthony staggs

@PyroStag


That was a bad call there.... C'mon man.


04:27 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Anthony staggs

@PyroStag


RT @pyroman1ac: Week 7 Pyro Player Rankings by @PyroStag & @FF_Wheeler QBs: https://t.co/58wL7Y0hWZ RBs: https://t.co/r2jGtDe8hC… https://t.co/Ry7ORyIfDC


04:23 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Pyromaniac.com

@pyroman1ac


Week 7 Pyro Player Rankings by @PyroStag & @FF_Wheeler QBs: https://t.co/58wL7Y0hWZ RBs: https://t.co/r2jGtDe8hC… https://t.co/Ry7ORyIfDC


04:22 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Wheeler

@FF_Wheeler


@adog235 Chubb


04:21 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Wheeler

@FF_Wheeler


@duke5021 we'll know more after this week, I think Chubb is the starter, but Duke could carve a significant role


04:21 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Waz

@WazNFL


@Adamtz I get so anxious with it, especially when I'm rooting for the team on defense.


04:19 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Wheeler

@FF_Wheeler


@Idr__ nah


04:19 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Waz

@WazNFL


@RobertIrvin210 Coin-flip worthy. I'd lean Rudolph.


04:18 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Waz

@WazNFL


The "let's pretend to go for it on 4th down" plays have really annoyed me lately. I can't recall the last time I saw it work.


03:26 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Mo

@pyromaniacmo


Jags have only 1 TE available on Draft Kings - Grinnage. O'Shaughnessy, ASJ, Niles Paul, and Goolsby all are out. Grinnage just 2.5K


02:36 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Mo

@pyromaniacmo


So used to watching the quick action on the Red Zone channel. There is something to be said for watching the whole… https://t.co/J7mPSIteNH


01:44 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Pyromaniac.com

@pyroman1ac


Love watching Purdue spank Ohio State...


03:02 AM, Oct 21, 2018

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Pyromaniac.com

@pyroman1ac


RT @Rodcox84: Y’all ! This might be the funniest thing I have ever saw in my life https://t.co/nZQgsPgK5E


01:51 AM, Oct 21, 2018

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Waz

@WazNFL


@andybehrens When did Brad do that?


02:01 AM, Oct 18, 2018

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Brad holmes

@bradholmes17


RT @pyromaniacmo: Of course. Another @pyroman1ac man, @FF_Wheeler The most accurate #FantasyFootball ranker so far this season! Well… https://t.co/49y6HFnfoV


02:13 PM, Oct 06, 2018

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Brad holmes

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@pyroman1ac https://t.co/ZiHjlwIXio


03:36 PM, Oct 05, 2018

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Brad holmes

@bradholmes17


RT @evansilva: #Bengals Pass Catchers Update: Tyler Eifert -- Out for year John Ross -- Groin, questionable at best A.J. Green --… https://t.co/LINlheNiFW


04:19 PM, Oct 04, 2018

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Brad holmes

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@pyroman1ac https://t.co/XRG0konwbt


02:42 PM, Oct 03, 2018

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Brad holmes

@bradholmes17


RT @RotoViz: Dumpster Dives: Deep Waiver Pickups for Week 5 - by @DumpsterDiveFF #FantasyFootball https://t.co/i5xGgc7z40 https://t.co/F6XQEhLn7l


12:42 AM, Oct 03, 2018

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Vegas landscape for week ten - vegas implied point total

Vegas Vantage Point for Week 10

Posted by PyromaniacMo on 11/10/17

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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This weekly piece is intended to shed light on two primary factors that can weigh heavily upon your fantasy football decision making. Basically, we want to use Vegas in a helpful, predictive way. The first advantage to be gained exposes teams that are likely to be amongst the highest scoring of the week. Obviously, the more touchdowns a team puts up, the more fantasy points those players will have. For this, we will look at implied team totals.

So, now that we have identified the hottest teams of the week, we want to prognosticate even further and decide which positions, on those teams, will get the most opportunity to score. Does Vegas tell us a high scoring team will likely be playing with a lead? If this is the case, then such a positive game-script indicates more rushing attempts. Thus, we want RBs on those teams. If Vegas expects a higher scoring team to be on the losing end of a shoot-out, that is to play from behind, this tells us to expect more of a passing attack.

That’s it. In essence, we are looking for high implied team totals and an indication as to which positions will likely get the most opportunity to score those points.

 

 

Vegas Implied Point Total for Week 10

 


If you are looking to stack players from a specific game, gaze no further than Dallas/Atlanta. It actually opened over 50, but with the Zeke suspension back on, the total points expected now rests at 49.5. Still, it is the highest game of the week. Because the spread is only 3, favoring the home team of Atlanta, I expect both teams to do well. You certainly want to keep an eye on Dez Bryant’s status, but Terrance Williams could be a nice pivot play as he has been looking great as of late. In the last three weeks, Williams is second on the team for WR targets and actually has more receiving yards than Dez. According to Football Outsiders, no other team ranks worse against #2 WRs than Atlanta. Certainly Dak Prescott is a great play. Using Football Outsiders Weighted Defensive metric, the Falcons rank 29th. On the other side of the ball, Freeman is a great price on most DFS sites. This season, 3 RBs have racked up over 100 rushing yards against the Cowboys, and 4 different backs have amassed at least 50 receiving yards against them. Sanu is another nice pivot away from a Julio. Dallas is 27th against #2 WRs. In fact, they have allowed double-digit fantasy days to 6 different #2 WRs so far this year. Sanu has 3 TDs in the last 5 games and has scored in each of the last two weeks.

 

The highest implied team total for the week 10 slate goes to the Rams, and why not. They have been racking up the points. Vegas expects them to score just over 28 points this week. I do like the Goff / Woods stack. Afterall, look at what Hilton did to that aging secondary last week. I half expected on of their corner backs to pull a Red Fox and have a heart attack right there on the field. “I’m coming to see you Elizabeth!”. In the last 3 weeks, Houston is tied for the most FF Pts per game to opposing WRs. I love his ceiling. Also on the Rams and of particular note for full point reception leagues, take a look at Cooper Kupp. PFF notes the best matchup for Rams receivers goes to Kupp, who will matchup with Kareem Jackson. (He is actually tied along with Antonio Brown for best matchup). Kareem, nay, Mr. Jackson because he’s nasty, has the dubious distinction of coming in at CB #95 according to PFF. In PPR formats, Kupp should be solid, but I still like Woods for his ceiling. Finally, with the largest opening spread of the week, Gurley should see plenty of opportunity. Although Houston is far more susceptible to WRs, Fournette and Hunt both ripped off triple digit rushing days against the Texans.

 

The Lions are favored by nearly double digits over the visiting Browns. Detroit has an implied team total of nearly 27 points. You have to love Stafford at home. Watson, Dalton, and Brissett have all racked up 20 point fantasy days against the Cleveland secondary. Tate should get plenty of targets in this one. In the last 3 weeks, the former ND player has a total of 21 receptions and is 12th in receiving yards in that stretch. The Lions should get more offensive looks this game considering the Browns run at the second fastest clip in the NFL.

 

The Steelers are home to Indy in Week 10. Not only is there nearly a double-digit spread in favor of Pittsburgh, but they are expected to score just over 26 points. I don’t have any problem paying up for Bell in DFS this week. He leads the NFL for team touch percentage. The man is touching the ball 56% of the time. What is not to like against a Colts team who have surrendered the most rushing TDs in the league. Plus, Indy is allowing the most yards per passing attempt. Antonio Brown is absolutely in play this week against a very soft secondary. Remarkably, 16 different WRs have put up double-digit Draft Kings performances against the Colts. I expect Brown to be number 17. Vontae Davis has the name but no longer the game. PFF has Brown tied for the best matchup this week.

New England is a Vegas favorite. The Pats are slotted to put up nearly 27 points and hold a 7 point spread over the visiting Broncos. Brady will look to test their D that came off the rails last week. Considering the rushing woes of the Broncos, Tom Brady and company should get more looks than normal against a fledgling offense with Brock Osweiler under center.

 

The Saints are expected to score 25.5 on the road against Buffalo.  In the last 5 weeks, the Bills have surrendered the 5th most Draft Kings points to opposing RBs. I would not be opposed to equal shares of Kamara and Ingram.

 

Finally, for a defensive play, I like the Bears who are home to a struggling Packers team. This is the lowest Over/Under on the slate. Chicago is fairly cheap on the DFS sites. Hundley has one career game with a completion percentage above 55%. Then, because a RB/DEF stack is generally an attractive way to roll, I like Jordan Howard. The Packers have given up the 5th most fantasy points per game in the last 3 weeks. Howard is averaging just north of 25 touches per game since Trubisky took the helm. You know that is exactly within Coach Fox’s wheel house.

 

Starting in Week 7, I started tossing out picks. I am not counting the KC pick from last week as that call was made when Zeke was deemed out. I just want that on the record. So my totals so far:

Straight bets Against the Spread: 3-0-1

2 team parlays Against the Spread: 1-3

 

For Week 10

2 team parlays:

TEN (-4.5) and OVER 40.5

LAC (+4.5) and OVER 41

           

Straight Bets

MIA (+9)

SF (+2.5)

BUF (+3)

 

 

 

 

PyromaniacMo with a Founder's

 

By: PyromaniacMo

 

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