March 21, 2018


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Cleveland Browns

Money Ball: The Sequel

Hate to start out the offseason with the Cleveland Browns, but they are makin’ moves!
Browns acquired: Tyrod Taylor, Jarvis Landry, Damarious Randall
Browns gave up: 2018 3rd-round pick (No. 65), 2018 4th-round pick, 2019 7th-round pick, DeShone Kizer

Building with experienced quality performers that have something to prove, by selling inconsequential draft picks is exactly what Sashi Brown was building up for. It’s a shame he won’t be around to reap the rewards, but these are quality moves for a win-now mentality.

03/09/18, 09:37 PM CST by Wheeler


Tyrod Taylor

Buffalo Bills

Hue Looks To TyGoat

Browns left tackle Joe Thomas, who's pondering his future, is a fan of Tyrod Taylor and has said so on the ThomaHawk Show podcast.

Tyrod is just one season removed (2016) from being the QB11 in average fantasy ppg, including seven 20+ point weeks and six 15+ point weeks. Given the current talent on the O-line and skill position weapons he could improve on those numbers. He has the potential to be this year’s Alex Smith, definitely heading my late-round (12+) QB picks now.

03/09/18, 09:32 PM CST by Wheeler


Deshone Kizer

Cleveland Browns

Packers Get In On The Fun

The Packers have traded for QB DeShone Kizer from the Browns to Green Bay.

This is the best possible scenario for Kizer, who was thrown into the fire last season. Getting the chance to develop and learn behind the best in the business is the best chance he has for longevity.

03/09/18, 09:30 PM CST by Wheeler


Torrey Smith

Philadelphia Eagles

On The Move Again

The Eagles trade WR Torrey Smith to the Panthers for CB Daryl Worley. Torrey Smith could fill the old Ted Ginn role which makes this fairly interesting. Stagg Party says it’s more of a boost for Cam than Torrey himself.

This is an absolute perfect fit, someone who isn’t going to demand the ball, but can take the top off a defense while McCaffrey, Olsen, and Cam work underneath. Torrey is looking like a great late-round flyer.

03/09/18, 09:28 PM CST by Wheeler


DeMarco Murray

Tennessee Titans

Henry Hype Train Has Clear Track

DeMarco Murray was released by the Titans.
No surprise here, expect Derick Henry to be a lead back with 250+ touches, but they will bring in someone that will play the third-down, pass-catching role out of the backfield. I wouldn’t be surprised if they sign someone like Jerick McKinnon or Rex Burkhead, or even Darren Sproles or Charles Sims. There are also plenty of options in the NFL draft, Henry won’t be a true “Bell Cow.”

03/09/18, 09:17 PM CST by Wheeler


Marquise Goodwin

San Francisco 49ers

The Name Says It All

Marquise Goodwin and the 49ers have agreed to a 3yr extension worth $20.3M & 10M guaranteed.

Shanahan has found his big-play threat at a reasonable price. Goodwin caught 56 balls for 962 yards last season, but only had two TD’s. None of his six longest plays (33+ yards) were from Garoppollo so it leads me to believe they will still be looking for a top of the line WR, even with Garcon coming back from injury.

03/09/18, 09:15 PM CST by Wheeler


Jonathan Stewart

Carolina Panthers

The Search Is On

Former Panthers RB Jonathan Stewart is visiting the Seahawks today, source says. Seattle is looking at all options to get that ground game going.

This would be an interesting landing spot for Stewart, but no RB available in free agency is going to do spit behind this Swiss-cheese O-line.

03/09/18, 09:13 PM CST by Wheeler


New York Giants

Building Blocks

NFL draft insider Tony Pauline says "belief" around the league is free agent OG Andrew Norwell signing with the Giants is "a done deal."
The top guard on the market, Norwell was one of ex-Panthers GM Dave Gettleman's most-prized discoveries as an undrafted free agent. Gettleman now runs the Giants, who have needs all over the line.

I like anything the Giants can do to repair this disheveled O-line. Building a line through free-agency is almost always a better option than through the draft, but I would still like to see them trade back in the draft and grab Quenton Nelson, OG, Notre Dame.

03/09/18, 09:11 PM CST by Wheeler


Dion Lewis

New England Patriots

Pass Catching Backs Set To Dominate

On first downs this year, the Eagles allow a 65% success rate on RB-passes. That ranks 29th in the league. Dion Lewis averaged 6.5 YPA and a 59% success rate, and James White averaged 7.7 YPA and a 58% success rate on first down passes this season.

02/04/18, 10:36 AM CST by Wheeler


James White

New England Patriots

Pass Catching Backs Set To Dominate

On first downs this year, the Eagles allow a 65% success rate on RB-passes. That ranks 29th in the league. Dion Lewis averaged 6.5 YPA and a 59% success rate, and James White averaged 7.7 YPA and a 58% success rate on first down passes this season.

02/04/18, 10:36 AM CST by Wheeler


Philadelphia Eagles

Attack With 11

The Patriots defense is particularly susceptible to runs out of 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRs), allowing a 61% success rate and 6.0 YPC to offenses when rushing from this formation. The Eagles are one of the most run heavy teams from 11 personnel, recording nearly 60% of their total rushes from 11 formation. The Patriots haven’t faced teams like this often, the teams the Pats faced in the playoffs, Tennessee and Jacksonville were last and 5th lowest respectively rushing from 11 formation. This is a massive advantage for the Eagles if they recognize it and use it.

02/04/18, 10:32 AM CST by Wheeler


Jay Ajayi

Philadelphia Eagles

To The Left, To The Left

New England started the season off with one of the worst rush defenses in the entire league, but things have really shifted over the second half of the year. Prior to their Week 9 bye, the Patriots had allowed a 44.70% Success Rate to opposing running backs, the third-worst in the league. That's dropped to about 38% since, and they've had the fifth-best rush defense by Success Rate since Week 12. New England's especially been good at stopping runs to the left side of the field, which just so happens to be where Jay Ajayi has really made a mark since joining the Eagles in Week 9.
I don’t look for Ajayi to make his mark in this game. I know it’s a lazy narrative, but a Blount revenge game seems to really be in the cards here.

02/04/18, 10:30 AM CST by Wheeler


Zach Ertz

Philadelphia Eagles

Pats Could Hit'em Where It Ertz

Zach Ertz leads the Eagles in targets (39) with Foles under center, drawing at least eight in three of their four full games together. Keyed by FS Devin McCourty and SS Patrick Chung, the Pats allowed the NFL’s tenth-fewest receiving yards to tight ends (720) this season, only four opposing tight ends have reached 50 yards through 18 Patriots games.
If Foles continues to pepper Ertz with targets we could see a big game for Chung or McCourty.

02/04/18, 10:25 AM CST by Wheeler


Nelson Agholor

Philadelphia Eagles

Plenty Of Fluids

The Eagles’ biggest pass-catcher personnel mismatch is Nelson Agholor against Patriots slot corner Eric Rowe. Rowe can struggle with quick change of direction, Agholor’s foremost strength. Agholor runs 87% of his routes in the slot, and New England allowed solid games to Eric Decker (6/85/0) in the Divisional Round, and Allen Hurns (6/80/0) in the AFC title game. Agholor still ranks second behind Ertz in Foles targets (29), but has had a surprisingly quiet playoffs with just 7 targets.
This will have to change if the Eagles plan on moving the ball, but Agholor has been sick with the flu for the past few days. He received intravenous fluids Saturday and will play, but it doesn’t sound like he’ll be 100%.

02/04/18, 10:22 AM CST by Wheeler


Danny Amendola

New England Patriots

Danny Playoffs

The Eagles finished second worst this season in percentage of passing yards allowed coming after the catch. Philadelphia struggled on short and intermediate throws this season, specifically to the middle of the field, where they allowed the third-most yards per passing play in the league. Brady was a top-five player in passer rating on these types of tosses. Amendola's been a monster in this year's playoffs for New England, grabbing hold of 22 targets in just two contests, accounting for over 24% of New England's targets. He should continue to play a role on Super Bowl Sunday.

02/04/18, 10:20 AM CST by Wheeler


Rex Burkhead

New England Patriots

Rex Back

Despite being listed as questionable for Sunday’s AFC Championship game vs. Jaguars, it appears as though Patriots’ RB Rex Burkhead will play.
This will cut into the 13 targets Amendola saw last week.

01/20/18, 10:49 PM CST by Wheeler


Adam Thielen

Minnesota Vikings

Making The Wright Move?

Adam Thielen (back) is questionable for Sunday's NFC Championship game against the Eagles.
He's fully expected to play after limited practices the last two days. He probably won’t be 100 percent so if you’re putting in a line-up you might want to pivot to Diggs or save some money and drop down to Jarius Wright who grabbed three-of-six targets for 56 yards Sunday and has established himself as the number three WR in this offense.

01/20/18, 10:31 PM CST by Wheeler


Leonard Fournette

Jacksonville Jaguars

Ankle In Question Again

Fournette aggravated his ankle in the Divisional Round and was limited early in the week. He was left off the injury report for Sunday's AFC Championship game. Fournette saw a heavy workload last week getting 27 touches in Jacksonville's upset of the Steelers. T.J. Yeldon rushed five times for 20 yards and a touchdown and caught 3-of-3 targets for 57 yards. If you’re looking for a cheaper option I expect we see Yeldon to be used to keep Fournette from aggravating the injury early.

01/20/18, 10:23 PM CST by Wheeler


Tom Brady

New England Patriots

Give Him A Hand

Reports are that Tom Brady threw the ball "incredibly well" during Friday's practice. He is listed as questionable for Sunday's AFC Championship game against Jacksonville, but I don’t think there was any real doubt that he’d play. Keep in mind what D-Rex spoke about on the Pyro Podcast 303 andScott Barrett tweeted about Brady last week:
Weeks 1-10: 21.2 fantasy points per game, 110.9 passer rating
Weeks 11-17: 14.2 fantasy points per game, 87.3 passer rating
The hand injury on top of his achilles injury, as well as going against the Jags #1 rated pass defense could keep the Patriots attack grounded this week. Lewis is the obvious play, but if Burkhead (Q) comes back it could be he or White that steals the show.

01/20/18, 10:22 PM CST by Wheeler


Tom Brady

New England Patriots

Tom Still Terrific?

Tom Brady was first listed on the team's injury report with an Achilles injury heading in to Week 11.
Weeks 1-10: 21.2 fantasy points per game, 110.9 passer rating
Weeks 11-17: 14.2 fantasy points per game, 87.3 passer rating

Fantasy Goo: This should line up for a good week for Brady, Tennessee is 8th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, but just below average against QB’s. The Patriots are 13 point favorites on Saturday Night, if Brady doesn’t do it at home in prime-time then something is wrong.

01/09/18, 07:30 PM CST by Wheeler


Alvin Kamara

New Orleans Saints

Primary Role Shifting

Saints have run 5 times at/inside opponent's 5-yard line over last 4 weeks (including playoffs):
Alvin Kamara 3 carries, Zach Line 1, Mark Ingram 1. Kamara was in on all 3 Saints run plays at/inside 5 vs. Panthers last week, including Line's 1-yard TD run.

Fantasy Goo: If you’re trying to decide between Kamara and Ingram for the playoff run, Kamara looks to be the much better play.

01/09/18, 07:20 PM CST by Wheeler


Vegas landscape for week twelve - vegas implied point total

Vegas Vantage Point for Week 12

Posted by PyromaniacMo on 11/22/17

by   The Archer


More Articals


This weekly piece is intended to shed light on two primary factors that can weigh heavily upon your fantasy football decision making. Basically, we want to use Vegas in a helpful, predictive way. The first advantage to be gained exposes teams that are likely to be amongst the highest scoring of the week. Next, we want to prognosticate even further and decide which positions, on those teams, will get the most opportunity to score. In other words, which teams will score points, and which positions have the best chance of leading those teams.


Week 12 Vegas Implied Point Total and Detail Chart



Some of my best memories are watching the Lions on Thanksgiving. The game however, is the conduit. Sure, my DFS picks this year will add to the day’s festivities. However, with the ever tick of time’s clock, I appreciate the good feelings with friends and family. So, relish the good stuff on this day of Thanks. Some may have to look past an opinionated relative, or deal with gridlock and the eternal trials of travel… But look beyond. As time goes on, the experiences of today become tomorrow’s joyous memories. So, happy Thanksgiving, cherish the good goo!



MIN @ DET(+3) - O/U 44.5

23.75   20.75

Detroit is one of two home underdogs on a Thanksgiving day slate of three. This is the lowest scoring game of the slate according to Vegas. I think Detroit is a very solid bet against the spread, they are getting 3 points and they are home. Last week, Detroit was one of only three teams that surpassed their implied team total seven times this season. Well, they did it again last week. Heck, there have only been two occasions when Detroit failed to score 24 points this entire season. That said, I think Stafford has the highest ceiling of the holiday slate of QBs. Now, one of those two times they did not put up 24 points, was against the Vikings back in Week 4. Stafford has more completions against the Vikings than any other team. Now, they have not allowed a 100 yard WR this season, the Lions score a lot of points by spreading the wealth. Rostering Stafford gives you access to all the potential TDs on the team. The Vikings have allowed the 11th most DraftKings points to opposing gun-slingers the last 3 weeks. Golden Tate is a great cash play. Ironically, Marvin Jones  has been targeted just as much in the last 3 weeks. If Xavier Rhodes is out, I like Jones in GPP. Although, Rhodes was listed as a full practice participant Monday and Tuesday. While I am not a huge fan of the ground game versus the Vikings, Ameer Abdulla did put up 94 yards in their Week #4 meeting. Thus far, that is the most yards suffered to an opposing back by the Vikings.


For Minnesota, this game does have shootout potential. Case Keenum could benefit and is in GPP consideration. There will be a lot of people on Theilen after last week’s performance. He should draw a tough matchup in Quandre Diggs. For the Vikings, Stefon Diggs will likely get the Slay ride and is a fade candidate as well. Treadwell has the best matchup against Nevin Lawson but keep in mind Treadwell’s lack of production till now. I like Rudolph in cash. Detroit is notorious for giving it up to TEs and Football Outsiders ranks them 29th in that department this season. In the last 6 weeks, Rudolph is averaging over 7 targets a game.  Of course, the Vikings ground game offers some cash game appeal. I like McKinnon as a pivot off Murray who has been more productive of late. But, this could be a negative script for the Vikings. In which case, they will look to pass, and McKinnon’s role will be vital if they are down.



LAC @ DAL(+1) - O/U 48

24.5     23.5

The highest scoring game of the slate; this would be the one to game stack. The Chargers are also road favorites and Rivers will make a nice cash option for QBs. Keenan Allen will likely be the highest owned WR. You could look to get leverage against the field by fading him in GPP. He is a great cash game option. I like Hunter Henry as well. Dallas will still be without Lee, the heart of their defense. Mike Williams has the second most Charger targets for a WR in the last three weeks. He is a high draft pick the organization would like to see get going, especially around the red zone. Gordon is sure to be the highest owned RB and for good reason.  A solid cash play. He is 4th for red zone attempts. Ekeler really did not get any work until the 2nd half last week, so I am not as scared off. I do like Ekeler in GPP as well. I even stacked them last week. This is an option as this game has the best potential for a shootout.


While Prescott while likely see depressed ownership, a bounce-back performance could be possible and would give you leverage off a field likely on mainly one or two other QBs. The last three weeks, the Chargers have given up the 7th most rushing yards to QBs. Of course, in that span, they have allowed the 2nd most draft Kings points to opposing RBs. Alf is one of the few healthy Dallas back and could be in for a haul of carries. Rod Smith went from getting 6 targets two weeks ago, to 0 last week in a game that required a passing script from the Cowboys. His role is anything but solidified. Witten is a great option, I could see him shining in the national spotlight. Dez is so volatile, love his ceiling potential in GPP, but I will not be overweight on him by any means. As always with short slates, in tournaments, you will need a low-cost guy to put up some numbers. That could be Terrance Williams who actually has more yards than Dez in the last three games.



NYG @ WAS (-7.5) - O/U 45

18.75   26.25

Starting with the Giants, the only one I see exposure to would be Engram of course. He is 6th in DraftKings points in the last 3 games. He makes up the whole team, especially if Shepard is out, who very well could be. He has not practiced all week. Darkwa looked solid last week. However, will they be able to stay within a neutral game script? If not, his usage comes into question. Also, his health, the man has been limited in practice so far this week.

As for Washington, Cousins is sure to be the highest owned cash QB. Samaje Perine was 6th in DraftKings points last week. Vegas is certainly telling us he should get the usage again as the Redskins have the highest spread of the slate at 7.5, and the home field advantage. Pryor is out of the passing game now, as is Chris Thompson. This should open up some room for fantasy production, but from whom? My money is on Crowder. He leads the team in targets for the last 5 weeks. While I like Crowder’s floor, Doctson has the ceiling and could be a nice GPP play if Cousins goes off. In larger tournaments, when you are looking for a cheap WR to stack with cousins, Ryan Grant could be your guy. He had his best DraftKings day last week with 14.9 points.



Starting in Week 7, I started tossing out picks. My record thus far:


Straight bets Against the Spread: 6-3-2


For Week 12:

            DET (+3)







PyromaniacMo with a Founder's


By: PyromaniacMo


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Tons of movement this week so pay extra attention to our Week 11 of Pyromaniac Mo's Vegas Piece and how Vegas spreads can help you with fantasy football and DFS selections for players on teams that are likely to score the most points. Check it out!