March 26, 2019

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Vegas landscape for week thirteen - vegas implied point total

Vegas Vantage Point for Week 13

Posted by PyromaniacMo on 12/01/17

by   The Archer


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This weekly piece is intended to shed light on two primary factors that can weigh heavily upon your fantasy football decision making. Basically, we want to use Vegas in a helpful, predictive way. The first advantage to be gained exposes teams that are likely to be amongst the highest scoring of the week. Next, we want to prognosticate even further and decide which positions, on those teams, will get the most opportunity to score. In other words, which teams will score points, and which positions have the best chance of leading those teams. 

Week 13 Implied Point Total Vegas


NE @   BUF(+9)           O/U = 49

29        20

This game not only opened up as the highest scoring game on the slate, but the Pats have the highest implied team total for Week #13. The Pats fire it up against this divisional rivalry. Gronk has faced them 11 times and has 11 TDs. Tom Brady has 66 TDs against them. In fact, Brady has scored more TDs against the Bills than any other team. He has 20 more against the Bills than the Jets despite playing NYJ two more times. His 66 represents 10 more TDs than he has against the Dolphins despite playing Miami in one more game. While the Bills are stout against opposing WRs, in fact Football Outsiders ranks them #1 against “other WRs” (meaning not a team’s #1 or #2 wide out), in the past 4 games, they have allowed 4 WR TDs. Brandin Cooks is 6th in the league in Air Yards.  Both New England backs are in play. In the last 3 weeks, Burkhead is averaging 14.1 DraftKings points on just 39 looks. His explosiveness has been on display and has a high ceiling. Dion Lewis might be the safer floor play on Draft Kings. He has averaged 14.2 DK points per game in that span on 45 looks. Keep in mind, the Bills have surrendered 10 rushing TDs in the past 5 weeks. Heck, there are only 2 other teams that have allowed over 10 rushing touchdowns to be scored all season long. That, plus the positive game script really favors the New England ground game.


Buffalo will likely need to pass to stay in this game, as they are expected to lose by 7. This makes Tyrod interesting, but risky. He should have all day to pass as the Pats defensive line has the worst Adjusted Sack Rating according to Football Outsiders. This should give him plenty of time to pass, or better yet, to scramble for yards. The Pats have been far better against opposing QBs as of late. In their last 5 games, they have seen the likes of Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers, and Derek Carr yet the best DK score anyone has put up in that time is just 17 points. Still, every QB that has faced New England has managed at least 200 passing yards, 1 TD, and double digit DK points. New England ranks 29th against the rush according to Football Outsiders. Plus, they rank 29th against opposing backs out of the backfield. In fact, only San Francisco has allowed more RB receiving yards per game. In the last 5 weeks, LeSean McCoy is tied for the 7th most DK points on a per game basis. He is usually a solid cash play. The man has the 4th most carries this season and the 7th most targets for running backs. Opportunity is the name of the game in DFS cash plays, especially on DK where the man has the 7th most receptions as well. If Charles Clay is healthy, he has been Tyrod’s favorite target over the season. However, he is Questionable for Week 13 and has only practiced in a limited fashion thus far. Kelvin Benjamin is Doubtful. So, in the past two games, Zay Jones has been the guy. In that span he has 15 targets and just over 100 yards. He has scored 2 TDs in the last 3 games and his floor for targets in that time is 7. Still, Zay is nothing more than a GPP play. Still, the Pats are 2nd in DK points allowed to opposing WRs over the course of this season.


PHI @  SEA (+6)         O/U = 48

27        21

The second highest scoring game according to Vegas is the Eagles at the Seahawks. 48 points is the over under with road Eagles expected to do the majority of the scoring, putting up 27 points to just 21 for the home Seahawks. The 27 implied Eagle points is the 3rd highest for the week. Philly ranks #1 in the NFL for points scored, 31.9 per game. They are 6 point favorites with good reason. Their opponents are scoring the 3rd lowest points per game. So, if this holds true, Philly will have a positive game script and should rely on the ground game. While the coaching staff was talking up Ajayi two weeks ago, it has been Blount since then. I will likely be under weight on him and that would be in GPP only. On the season, Seattle is 11th against the rush according to Football Outsiders. However, they are really banged up on defense. Still only 2 backs have gone for over 60 yards against them on the season. The last one to do so was in Week #3. PFF gives Zach Ertz the 3rd best TE matchup this week. In the Seahawks last 7 games, they have allowed really good days to some mediocre TEs: 4 for 98 yards to Higbee; 6 for 60 and a TD to Engram; 6 for 72 to Vernon Davis; 5 for 64 and a TD to Gresham; and 31 yards and even a TD to the ukulele playing Levine Toilolo… I know Levine Toilolo, and let me tell you, Zach Ertz is no Levine Toilolo. This Eagles team has failed to put up 26 points just once this year. Considering the amount of scoring opportunities they should have, plus the fact that Ertz has the 2nd most Red Zone TD receptions in the league, I like him in cash. Ertz has the 3rd best Weighted Opportunity ranking in the league. Alshon Jeffery is 10th in that category for WRs. He has the 5th most air yards. For that reason, plus the fact they are expected to score nearly 4 TDs and have been doing so nearly all season, I like Jeffery as well, but in GPPs. Well I love what Wentz has been doing, he is expensive. I could see paying down a bit for QB this week. Plus, if the Vegas line holds true, and this team is indeed up and just using Blount as a clock chewing weapon, he might not have as high of a ceiling.

Seattle is at home where Wilson has only lost 8 times. Still, the Philly D is just too good. Plus, Wilson is the 3rd highest priced QB on DK. It is going to be hard to pay $7,100 for Wilson when you can get Rivers at home against the Browns fro $100 less. Heck, why not go cheap with Hundley against the Gawd awful Bucs secondary. Hundley is just $2000 less than Wilson. However, I will still grab some Wilson in GPP formats as Seattle does not have a ground game. Besides, according to Vegas, they will be playing from behind and need to rely on his arm. So the potential is there, but probably not for a ceiling play against this D. Their secondary, Mills, Darby, Robinson, carry some of the highest grades from PFF. Philly has absolutely the best Adjusted Sack rate. So I will likely be under weight on Wilson and hope to use that as leverage against the field. Now, Jimmy Graham can be considered in cash only because of his streak. The man has the most red zone targets for any pass catcher and the most red zone TDs. Graham has scored a TD in 6 of his last 7 games. He is in cash consideration. I am not touching the Philly ground game. They have several viable pass catchers for GPP formats in both Richardson and Baldwin. In fact, Baldwin has the best matchup.


CLE @ LAC (-13)        O/U = 42.5

14.75   27.75

The Chargers have the 2nd highest implied team total on the slate, 27.75. You have to love Philip Rivers at $7,000. Cleveland has allowed 6 different QBs to score over 18 DK points this season. This list includes Keenum, Brissett, and Dalton twice. They have allowed 3 multi-TD days to their last 4 opponents. Surprisingly, they are very solid against #2 WRs. That really just leaves Keenan Allen, and why not, he has the 2nd most DK points in the last 3 weeks. This could be a nice stack. Because the Chargers also carry the highest spread of the week, they are expected to win by 13 points, this is Melvin Gordon game if I ever saw one. Gordon only has 4 games on the season where he did not cross the goal line. While the Browns are fairly solid on paper against the rush, we saw last week, because their offense is so horrendous, they continually leave their opponents with great field position. Football Outsiders ranks 35 QBs for Defensive Adjusted Yards Above Replacement. This stat is excellent for comparing QBs to an average replacement level QB. Well, Kizer ranks 35th. He continually gives opposing teams golden opportunity after opportunity to get into scoring position. Gordon has the 4th most attempts inside the red zone. I do like him for cash consideration.



Starting in Week 7, I started tossing out picks. My record thus far:

Straight bets Against the Spread: 7-4-2


For Week 13:

SF (+3)

GB (+1)

LAR (-7)

PIT (-5.5)




PyromaniacMo with a Founder's


By: PyromaniacMo


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PyromaniacMo with a Founder's


By: PyromaniacMo


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