Week 20
January 17, 2018
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Tom Brady

New England Patriots

Tom Still Terrific?


Tom Brady was first listed on the team's injury report with an Achilles injury heading in to Week 11.
Weeks 1-10: 21.2 fantasy points per game, 110.9 passer rating
Weeks 11-17: 14.2 fantasy points per game, 87.3 passer rating

Fantasy Goo: This should line up for a good week for Brady, Tennessee is 8th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, but just below average against QB’s. The Patriots are 13 point favorites on Saturday Night, if Brady doesn’t do it at home in prime-time then something is wrong.


01/09/18, 07:30 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alvin Kamara

New Orleans Saints

Primary Role Shifting


Saints have run 5 times at/inside opponent's 5-yard line over last 4 weeks (including playoffs):
Alvin Kamara 3 carries, Zach Line 1, Mark Ingram 1. Kamara was in on all 3 Saints run plays at/inside 5 vs. Panthers last week, including Line's 1-yard TD run.

Fantasy Goo: If you’re trying to decide between Kamara and Ingram for the playoff run, Kamara looks to be the much better play.


01/09/18, 07:20 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jay Ajayi

Philadelphia Eagles

It's A Trap


Jay Ajayi (knee) is practicing in full for the Divisional Round.

Fantasy Goo: Atlanta is 5th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s this year and they are more susceptible to pass-catching backs. Todd Gurley rushed 14 times for 101 yards in the Rams' Wild Card loss to the Falcons, adding four receptions for 10 additional yards. Ajayi might have been drafted before Gurley this year, but that was clearly a mistake. Ajayi has talent, but he’s far from a good option this week.


01/09/18, 07:16 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Chris Hogan

New England Patriots

Back in Action


Chris Hogan (shoulder) is expected to return for Saturday's Divisional Round game against the Titans.

Fantasy Goo: He’s going to take a couple of weeks to get in tune with the offense, I’m looking to save him until the Super Bowl if you’re in one of those one and done fantasy playoff tournaments.


01/09/18, 07:14 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Drew Brees

New Orleans Saints

Strength vs Strength


Saints RBs led NFL during regular season in receptions (9.0) and receiving yards (77.8) per game.
Vikings held opposing RBs to fewest yards per target (4.2) and 3rd-fewest yards per game (30.6).

Fantasy Goo: The Vikings have been absolutely sick in all aspects on defense this year. If the Saints are going to pull this one out it sounds like it’s going to have to be a Brees week, I’m not so sure he’s going to be the guy you want to start on the road this week.


01/09/18, 07:12 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


LeSean McCoy

Buffalo Bills

Not The Real McCoy


LeSean McCoy said if he plays Sunday, "I want to be able to cut well enough to where I don't have a lot of pain cutting. I just want to be close, or the best as far as 100 percent as I can get. The type of game like this, you got to lay it all on the line.”

Fantasy Goo: McCoy is a poor play against the Jags this week. The Jags strength on defense is against the pass (#1 in FP allowed), but they are still strong against the rush (11th). I’m not taking any Bills on fantasy playoff squads or in DFS this week.


01/04/18, 09:29 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Derrick Henry

Tennessee Titans

Arrow Pointing Down


DeMarco Murray (knee) didn't practice again Thursday. Derrick Henry show ready to go.

Fantasy Goo: The way to attack KC is through the air, they rank 9th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s. They will most likely be in negative game script. KC hasn’t allowed any team to score over 20 points in Arrowhead all year.


01/04/18, 09:27 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Julio Jones

Atlanta Falcons

No Fly Zone


Julio Jones finished 11th in NFL in red-zone targets but caught only 5 of 19. He finished 4th in targets inside 10 but only caught 4 of 11.

Fantasy Goo: The Rams have a strong pass defense, especially against outside receivers, but are second worst in fantasy points allowed to RB’s. Freeman and Coleman are the only Falcons I am considering this week.


01/04/18, 09:25 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Kenny Golladay

Detroit Lions

Under the Radar


In the first game with TJ Jones (shoulder) on IR last week, Kenny Golladay played 95% of snaps and led DET WRs with 8 targets.

Fantasy Goo: Marvin Jones has a history of shredding the Packers defense and is a solid play at $6500 on DK, but Golladay is half the price ($3300) and will probably see a similar number of targets. If Detroit had something to play for I’d be stacking the heck out of this game, but I still think it’s smart to have one of these guys in the line-up this week.


12/31/17, 09:46 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Patrick Mahomes

Kansas City Chiefs

Rookie Debut


Patrick Mahomes was 2nd in PFF’s QB Rating when kept clean in preseason. He rushed for 744 yards, 22 TDs in his last two years at Texas Tech. Denver has allowed multiple passing TDs to six-straight QBs not named Petty or Brissett.

Fantasy Goo: The rookie was supposed to take over for Alex Smith much earlier this season, but Smith and the Chief’s came out firing on all cylinders and kept the rookie on the bench. Mahomes will get his chance this week as Smith gets a week off before the playoffs. Denver may be packing it in, but they still have one of the best defenses and I expect they will play more inspired this week against a division rival.


12/31/17, 09:32 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Wayne Gallman

New York Giants

Last Man Standing


Giants will be without Shepard (neck), Engram (ribs), and King (concussion) vs. WAS. Wayne Gallman has 9, 7, 8 target counts in last three weeks.

Fantasy Goo: Washington ranks 24th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s and Gallman is $4200 on DK. Feels like a great way to save and pay up at other positions.


12/31/17, 09:21 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alex Collins

Baltimore Ravens

Burfict Situation


Bengals LB Vontaze Burfict ruled out for game Sunday at Baltimore because of shoulder injury.

Fantasy Goo: Collins becomes a solid RB1 this week. Cincinnati’s run defense is a sieve with Burfict out.


12/31/17, 09:19 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Akeem Hunt

Houston Texans

Akeem No Dream


Charcandrick West is out Sunday vs Denver with an illness. Akeem Hunt and Kareem Hunt only RBs on active roster for KC. It would be a surprise to see Kareem play much. That means a ton of Akeem Hunt and likely some De'Anthony Thomas on passing downs.

Fantasy Goo: Akeem is min price ($3000) on DK so the definition of a free-square, but there’s a reason he’s bounced around the NFL and never earned a starting role. Denver is 5th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, I’m not rostering Akeem when there are so many other options this week.


12/31/17, 09:17 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


DeAndre Hopkins

Houston Texans

Milestone Not Worth The Risk


Bill O'Brien on DeAndre Hopkins' status: 'Probably won't know up until game time'. Typically, we might classify this as coach-speak, but Hopkins has never missed a game, and is four catches away from 100 for the season. He's probably pushing hard to play.

Fantasy Goo: This is an awesome match-up for the Houston WR’s going against a very weak Indy pass defense, but there is really no reason for Hopkins to play, especially with the calf injury. At $8400 on DK he’s just way too pricey given this news. A sneaky start might be Will Fuller at $4300, he has 5 targets in each of the past three games and is coming off some difficult match-ups. Earlier in the season he was a superstar with Watson throwing the ball, but he has always had the big play in his arsenal no matter who the QB is.


12/29/17, 10:03 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Dion Lewis

New England Patriots

Vultures Are Always Flying


James White (ankle) remained limited at Thursday's practice. White was absent for last week's win over Buffalo but should be out there against the Jets in Week 17. He ranks eighth among running backs with 56 catches this year.

Fantasy Goo: Lewis dominated last week with White and Burkhead out, even though Gillislee vultured a TD. I would imagine that White playing will take away the five receptions Lewis had last week and the Jets actually have a better rush defense than the Pats week 16 opponent (Buf). The Pats will be looking to lock-up home field advantage and won’t be resting their starters, but they will probably be looking to get everyone some work as they prep for the playoffs. Gillislee appears to be nursing a hammy and is not expected to play, but let’s not forget how White performed last year in the Super Bowl.


12/29/17, 09:47 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

Pittsburgh Steelers

Stars Sitting


The Steelers Marcus Gilbert tells reporter Tim Benz that the Steelers won't play Ben Roethlisberger or Le'Veon Bell in finale vs. Cleveland. Landry Jones will be under center for Pittsburgh and Fitzgerald Toussaint and Stevan Ridley will form a thoroughly underwhelming RB committee against the Browns.

Fantasy Goo: Underwhelming is an understatement for these two backs, a highly respected fantasy website hasn’t even updated the news on these two since the pre-season and doesn’t even recognize them as being on the team. The one player of note in this is Martavis Bryant, The Alien averages over 17 ppr points per game with Landry at the helm as opposed to 8.4 ppg with other QB’s. He also has 5 TD’s in 5 home games with Landry. Granted most of this production comes from 2015 when they worked together often in the preseason, but Bryant could be a very sneaky GPP play this week.


12/29/17, 09:23 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Jacksonville Jaguars

Play To Win The Game


Despite already being locked into the AFC's No. 3 seed, Jaguars coach Doug Marrone has no plans to rest starters in Sunday's game against the Titans. "Make no mistake about it, just so there is not a lot of talk during the week: When the players come in (Wednesday), we are talking about how we are going to play to win and do everything we possibly can to win this game, period," Marrone said. "I am not even thinking about what happens beyond that, and that is the way we are going to go about our business this week."

Fantasy Goo: I think it’s crazy of him to do, but I’m sure he has Tom Coughlin in his ear feeding him that old-school philosophy. Looks like Bortles, Fournette, Westbrook and Cole will be safe plays against a Titan’s team hoping to hold on to the sixth seed in the AFC.


12/26/17, 10:00 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

Los Angeles Rams

Resting Starters


McVay hints that there will be Rams starters “who won’t play at all” on Sunday. The Rams are already locked into either the No. 3 or 4 seed in the NFC and will host a Wild Card round playoff game.

Fantasy Goo: Gurley, Goff, Woods, all sitting this week? That’s going to destroy so many hopes and dreams for teams that rode Gurley all year.


12/26/17, 09:58 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


DeMarco Murray

Tennessee Titans

Grind It Out


Mike Mularkey said he's not ruling DeMarco Murray out just yet. He's day-to-day. The Titans are holding out hope to have him in limited role.

Fantasy Goo: They are really grinding him into the dirt if they play him this week. I didn’t see the injury, but it sounded pretty ugly from sources in the know. Keep away from him in whatever format you are playing this week, I’m giving Derick Henry a solid upgrade as the Titans are trying to hold on to the final playoff spot in the AFC.


12/26/17, 05:17 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Philadelphia Eagles

All Locked Up


Pederson on playing Foles vs. Cowboys: “I’ve got to get him as many reps as he can and then be smart about it. Obviously, we have a lot of football left. Our season is really just beginning, quite honestly. We’ll be smart.”

Fantasy Goo: This is why you don’t play a championship game in week 17. I’m staying away from the Eagles regular starters, pretty much across the board, as they have a first round bye all locked up. Guys like Blount, Clement, and Nelson Agholor might have some DFS appeal, but we have to get closer to Sunday to see what they plan on doing.


12/26/17, 05:15 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Vegas landscape for week fourteen - vegas implied point total

Vegas Vantage Point for Week 14

Posted by PyromaniacMo on 12/08/17

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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This weekly piece is intended to shed light on two primary factors that can weigh heavily upon your fantasy football decision making. Basically, we want to use Vegas in a helpful, predictive way. The first advantage to be gained exposes teams that are likely to be amongst the highest scoring of the week. Next, we want to prognosticate even further and decide which positions, on those teams, will get the most opportunity to score. In other words, which teams will score points, and which positions have the best chance of leading those teams.

 

Vegas Implied Point Total Week 14

 


The IND/BUF and the DET/TB games both opened OFF and are still not taking bets as of 12-8-17

 

PATS implied total – 30.25, favored by 12  

New England, is a Vegas darling. For week #14, they play on Monday night, which you will want to keep in mind when selecting your slates on DFS. In their last 7 meetings, this matchup has surpassed the over/under 5 times. Not only that, in their last 7 games overall, Miami has gone over the spread. The Dolphins are allowing the 8th most points per game this NFL season. For fantasy purposes, it is hard to find a better D to face. In the last 5 weeks, opposing QBs facing the Dolphins have put up the 5th most DK points on a per game basis; the 3rd most DK points to opposing backs; the 2nd most to TEs. Remember Gronk is suspended for this game. I am not taking any fliers on the other Patriots TEs. So keeping all this in mind and looking at what Vegas tells us, the Pats will largely have a positive game script. So, this puts both RBs in play, although Dion Lewis gets the majority of carries. Still, Burkhead has been downright explosive. In their last 4 games, each RB has put up 3 different double digit fantasy performances. On the season, Lewis has 23 red zone looks while Burkhead has 18. Each back has 6 RZ looks in the last 3 weeks each. Just two weeks ago, Burkhead put up 19.3 to 12.3 for Lewis when they played Miami. So, I can see playing both guys in DFS.  Both are more of a GPP play. Heck, I will even have a double stack or two employing both backs and perhaps even the man himself, the big daddy Tom. Brady has 11 TDs in his last 4 meetings with Miami. He put up 22.7 DK points against them in Week #12. Keep in mind, usually the second meeting within a season is not as fruitful as the first as coaches have tape and can scheme a bit better. Finally, in the Pats last 4 games, 50% of the time, all three players, Brady, Lewis, and Burkhead managed double-digit draft Kings days.

 

 

Philly implied total = 25, facing the Rams, implied total = 26

If you are looking to Vegas to get a feel for a possible game stack, this is the one. This is the only matchup expected to finish north of 5o points, 51 to be exact. Sure the Pats/Miami has an over/under of 48.5, but Miami is only expected to score 2 TDs and change. Amazingly, these two teams are tied for the most points scored per game for this entire NFL season (30.1 each). On the season, each team has surpassed 30 points 8 different times so far. Heck, the Eagles have done it in 6 of their last 8 games. Keep your eyes peeled for Ertz news. He was concussed last week, failed to practice on Wednesday, and he got in a limited practice on Thursday. Trey Burton has been the TE to step up in Ertz’s absence. He could represent a great value on Draft Kings at just $2,900. The Rams have been tough against the position however, only allowing two TEs to amass 50 yards or more this season. This game will likely be a neutral game script, so it is hard to tell which position will go off. But with two implied team totals so high, the action is there. The easiest way to get exposure to scoring is through the QB position. However, Wentz is the most expensive QB on Draft Kings. Alshon Jeffery is 5th in air yards for the season. Pretend receivers caught every ball thrown to them and stopped right there, no yards after catch. That is basically what air yards represents. Jeffery is tied for 21st for Average Depth of Target per pass to WR. Not only that, he is 17th for WR targets. Air Yards is great for highlighting a receiver that is getting the attention just has not broken out. Well, Jeffery has been making up for lost time. In the last 5 games, he has 5 TDs. In the last 5 weeks, there have been 5 instances of a WR putting up 100 yards and/or scoring a TD against the Rams. Nelson Agholor had a monster game last week. His 27.1 Draft Kings points marks a career best. But he is far more volatile. Before last week, his best performance of 20.6 was followed up with a 7.9 DK performance against KC, a secondary that, on the season, is the 2nd worst against the position. Still, Agholor’s DK price is just $5,200, or $1,100 below Jeffery’s.

 

As for the Rams, Gurley is a great cash play this week. Considering you will basically get a free square with Gio Bernard, you can certainly afford Gurley’s price tag of $8,100. The Rams offensive line is ranked 5th best by Football Outsiders for Adjusted Line Yards, which is a fantastic stat used to calculate how good a line is for their running back. Alas however, there is always a rub. It just so happens that Philly ranks #1 for defensive Adjusted Line Yards. But, like the band Alabama sang, “You Can’t Keep a Good Man Down”, Gurley is a stud that rises above such defenses. Currently, no other running back is averaging more Draft Kings points per game than Mr. Todd Gurley. Robert Woods is Doubtful and has failed to practice so far this week. Watkins has certainly benefited in his two week absence. Sammy has 4 double-digit performances in the last 4 weeks. He has the higher ceiling and I like him in GPP only. Cooper Kupp can be considered in cash. Kupp is averaging nearly 8 targets per game in the last 6 weeks. But, I say “considered” because he will likely draw Patrick Robinson, the Eagles best CB. As always, nabbing a QB on a team expected to be in a shoot-out is a great way to get exposure to the majority of the scoring. Goff is the 3rd most expensive QB on draft Kings. At $6,600, he is $500 less than Wentz. In the last 5 weeks, Goff is Draft Kings 2nd best QB. He would be the QB I would back between the two. But a word to the wise, there are several cheaper QB plays this week, but with value guys like the aforementioned Gio, and Josh Gordon at just $5,500, and even Jermaine Kearse, who has put up back to back performances north of 26 DK points, is hard to ignore at just $4,800. Remember, Kerley is out. There are plenty of mid to low range priced players to choose from in Week #14

 

Pit implied total = 25.5 and are 7 point favorites

While there is not much that needs to be said about Le’Veon Bell, here are some things to remember. This is not on the main slate for Draft Kings as it is the Sunday night game. While Pitt is on the road, which does not favor Big Ben, it most certainly does Bell. For his career, he averages 4.0 ypc and has 9 TDs total at home. On the road, his ypc jumps to 4.61 and has racked up 22 TDs. The Steelers are favored by a TD despite being on the road. That means they should be playing with a lead for most of the game and relying on the ground game.

 

KC is home with a 26 point implied total, favored by 4.5 over Oakland

Alex Smith might have silenced some recent critics last week. This week, he can certainly continue such a performance against a fledgling Oakland D. In the last 5 weeks, only 5 teams are surrendering more DK points to opposing QBs than the Raiders. Oakland has 2 defensive players listed as Doubtful. Oakland is 22nd in D-line Adjusted Line Yards. This should give Smith time to find his downfield pass catchers. 17 WRs have put up double–digit DK days against Oakland this season. That list includes 3 different KC wide receivers from their earlier meeting this season. In that Week #7 game, Tyreek Hill amassed 25.2 DK points. His 36.5 DK performance last week is a career high. According to Football Outsiders, Oakland is dead last against opposing WR #1’s. I love a Smith/Hill stack this week. In GPP, I will even roll a tri-fecta by adding Hunt. He did have 87 yards in their previous meeting. Again, I am not playing him in cash, but will toss out a GPP triple stack. Why stop there. You want to get crazy, let’s get crazy. The Voltron stack, 4 players from one team. Oakland has always been notoriously bad against opposing TEs. Now, arguably, they face the league’s best in Travis Kelce. It seems he is immune to poor offensive play, which is just another reason he is a solid cash play this week. I will toss out one other solid cash play at the TE spot – Jason Witten.

 

Chargers are home with a 26.25 implied total. They opened as 6.5 favorites over the visiting Redskins

 

This game should have a positive game script for the Chargers. This makes Melvin Gordon another solid cash play at the RB spot. Gordon is tied for the 4th most carries among RBs this season. Out of the 6 RBs that have logged over 200 carries thus far, his points per opportunity in PPR is second highest (.46). Phillip Rivers is also in cash consideration. At $6,800, he is the 2nd most costly QB on the main slate. I do generally like to pay down at the QB position, and Prescott, at just $5,600 is tempting, plus you could even go lower with just $4,900 on Kizer. In cash, I think it is between Smith and Rivers. The Chargers QB put up over 31 DK points 2 weeks ago and just over 20 last week. He will face a Washington D that has allowed 5 different QBs to go for over 20 DK points this season. I know they have Norman, but he does not go in the slot, where Rivers will look for his favorite target in Keenan Allen. Allen, in the last 5 weeks, is averaging the 2nd most DK points for a WR. How good is that you ask? Well, his 5 week average is just .7 behind Antonio Brown on a per game basis. Hunter Henry is coming off his two best games of the season. The Redskins have allowed 10 different TEs to either score and/or go for over 90 yards this season.

 

Starting in Week 7, I started tossing out picks. My record thus far:

Straight bets Against the Spread: 10-5-2

For Week 14:

CHI (+6.5)

CLE (+3)

DAL (-3.5)

KC (-4)

NYJ (-1.5)

 

 

 

PyromaniacMo with a Founder's

 

By: PyromaniacMo

 

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PyromaniacMo with a Founder's

 

By: PyromaniacMo

 

Subscribe to the Pyro Podcast: http://iTunes.com/Podcasts/PyroPodcast

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