Week 11
November 13, 2018
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Pyromaniac.com

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Love this guy! So does Andrew Luck. https://t.co/LQUjE3KGoA


04:48 AM, Nov 13, 2018

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Pyromaniac.com

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RT @NickMartinezBR: Smh Booger https://t.co/FpwfEYLRzB


04:42 AM, Nov 13, 2018

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Anthony staggs

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RT @alltwentytwo: one thing going forward. the bills and the jets suck but if the league is trending to condensed formations, then we… https://t.co/qRyvzEBYXN


04:07 AM, Nov 13, 2018

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Anthony staggs

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RT @RyFo18: Booger saying Eli is not a HOFer he can stay on air for all-eternity now.


04:02 AM, Nov 13, 2018

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Anthony staggs

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@903124S @KevinRuprecht Yeah, but teams should use play action more anyways. Part of the point. Run more from shotg… https://t.co/e5oeYNuP5b


03:59 AM, Nov 13, 2018

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Anthony staggs

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RT @WorldWideWob: Markelle Fultz’s form is quickly becoming the Charles Barkley golf swing of basketball my lord https://t.co/zBVmeNMe8L


03:49 AM, Nov 13, 2018

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Anthony staggs

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RT @TJHernandez: Excluding the results from Monday Night, here's a look at how often teams passed in neutral game script (game withi… https://t.co/JXg05bKb0W


03:48 AM, Nov 13, 2018

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Wheeler

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RT @beerswater: Top 5 #MFL10 QB Win Rates through last night. Mahomes way out in front, but still below 20% (you'll see how that co… https://t.co/8zhAT1VgFw


03:41 AM, Nov 13, 2018

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Wheeler

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@LeviAndrewFF Landry vs Adams?


03:11 AM, Nov 13, 2018

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Wheeler

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RT @BradKelly17: Ezekiel Elliott once had the 7th best 110m Hurdle time in the Country at 13.77s Others in the top 20 that year: 1… https://t.co/hqOuwT5hbi


03:06 AM, Nov 13, 2018

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Wheeler

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RT @pyroman1ac: Waiver Wire Pickups Week 11 (After Week 10 Games) by Houdini https://t.co/qM41BKQKW9 https://t.co/zqKh5Eanyz


02:59 AM, Nov 13, 2018

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Wheeler

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RT @PyroStag: I did not see Alvin Kamara scoring even more touchdowns than last season, even with an uptick in work. That was v… https://t.co/pqapnq2S46


02:57 AM, Nov 13, 2018

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Pyromaniac.com

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We'll Make Great Pets. BBC News - UFOs spotted off Irish coast under investigation... https://t.co/LnQhJ9vVX9


12:53 AM, Nov 13, 2018

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Pyromaniac.com

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RT @LordReebs: Julio Jones cleared 1,000 yards yesterday, just the 11th time that a player has hit the 1,000-yard mark receiving t… https://t.co/oe0ei9frPD


12:47 AM, Nov 13, 2018

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Pyromaniac.com

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RT @PyroStag: There are currently 9 quarterbacks on pace for 320+ fantasy points this season in 4-point passing, -2 fumble and IN… https://t.co/4TfWcavA0p


12:25 AM, Nov 13, 2018

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RT @DomiNateFF: Who did you bench on your #FantasyFootball teams in #Week10 that you regret? I’ll start…I played Fitzpatrick over… https://t.co/GZoHOiB8U7


10:54 AM, Nov 12, 2018

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RT @AdvSportsLogic: Before setting those line ups, check out out updated ranks. #FantasyFootball: Week 10 Updated Rankings QB:… https://t.co/oArauvIKdX


10:24 PM, Nov 11, 2018

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RT @FFD260: Ryan Fitzpatrick attempting to throw the lead block down. #Bucs #Redskins #NFL https://t.co/0Te1hbJEWJ


10:16 PM, Nov 11, 2018

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Waz

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Two of us left in a $800 pot survivor pool and I'm about to lose to Matt Barkley. #FeelsBadMan


07:31 PM, Nov 11, 2018

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Waz

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@MikeMarFF and I'll follow that up with a Freeze on Michael Thomas. Good luck!


06:05 PM, Nov 11, 2018

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Waz

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@MikeMarFF I am using Magnetism on Michael Thomas this week. Your move.


04:59 PM, Nov 11, 2018

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Mo

@pyromaniacmo


Chris Carson, althogh technically game time decision, he was unable to practice all week. a DNP on Friday is always… https://t.co/QMaq3ItP6n


04:45 PM, Nov 11, 2018

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RT @pyromaniacmo: Fantasy Football Narrative street - revenge games - Moncrief vs Colts & D Lewis vs. Pats. Also, Josh Gordon will fa… https://t.co/wsAtfXFglF


04:43 PM, Nov 11, 2018

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Mo

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@PyroStag @73Davewhite @pyroman1ac Howard = safer floor as this will be another positive game script for him - he w… https://t.co/VfShIR1Tn2


04:43 PM, Nov 11, 2018

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Mo

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RT @PyroStag: Here is the Week 10 overlay of receptions to each position against what their opponent this week is allowing to run… https://t.co/xOPnnAPIIB


04:35 PM, Nov 11, 2018

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Mo

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Fantasy Football Narrative street - revenge games - Moncrief vs Colts & D Lewis vs. Pats. Also, Josh Gordon will fa… https://t.co/wsAtfXFglF


04:33 PM, Nov 11, 2018

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RT @Top2Sports: Need last minute #DFS help? #FantasyFootballAdvice #NFL -@FFJVAPHL has you covered for #DraftKings & #FanDuel… https://t.co/FDsg12zmWm


04:10 PM, Nov 11, 2018

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Mo

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RT @pyroman1ac: Use Vegas to get a #FantasyFootball advantage in #NFL Week 10... and make sure to check out the detailed write-up t… https://t.co/hbrLdfbkmP


10:00 PM, Nov 10, 2018

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Waz

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@dtlerch The confusing part to those not truly immersed in hoodie culture is probably the fact that it's not a pullover.


02:52 PM, Nov 10, 2018

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Waz

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@dtlerch Uh, that's obviously a hoodie.


02:50 PM, Nov 10, 2018

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Brad holmes

@bradholmes17


RT @pyromaniacmo: Of course. Another @pyroman1ac man, @FF_Wheeler The most accurate #FantasyFootball ranker so far this season! Well… https://t.co/49y6HFnfoV


02:13 PM, Oct 06, 2018

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Brad holmes

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@pyroman1ac https://t.co/ZiHjlwIXio


03:36 PM, Oct 05, 2018

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Brad holmes

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RT @evansilva: #Bengals Pass Catchers Update: Tyler Eifert -- Out for year John Ross -- Groin, questionable at best A.J. Green --… https://t.co/LINlheNiFW


04:19 PM, Oct 04, 2018

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Brad holmes

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@pyroman1ac https://t.co/XRG0konwbt


02:42 PM, Oct 03, 2018

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Brad holmes

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RT @RotoViz: Dumpster Dives: Deep Waiver Pickups for Week 5 - by @DumpsterDiveFF #FantasyFootball https://t.co/i5xGgc7z40 https://t.co/F6XQEhLn7l


12:42 AM, Oct 03, 2018

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Vegas landscape for week fourteen - vegas implied point total

Vegas Vantage Point for Week 14

Posted by PyromaniacMo on 12/08/17

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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This weekly piece is intended to shed light on two primary factors that can weigh heavily upon your fantasy football decision making. Basically, we want to use Vegas in a helpful, predictive way. The first advantage to be gained exposes teams that are likely to be amongst the highest scoring of the week. Next, we want to prognosticate even further and decide which positions, on those teams, will get the most opportunity to score. In other words, which teams will score points, and which positions have the best chance of leading those teams.

 

Vegas Implied Point Total Week 14

 


The IND/BUF and the DET/TB games both opened OFF and are still not taking bets as of 12-8-17

 

PATS implied total – 30.25, favored by 12  

New England, is a Vegas darling. For week #14, they play on Monday night, which you will want to keep in mind when selecting your slates on DFS. In their last 7 meetings, this matchup has surpassed the over/under 5 times. Not only that, in their last 7 games overall, Miami has gone over the spread. The Dolphins are allowing the 8th most points per game this NFL season. For fantasy purposes, it is hard to find a better D to face. In the last 5 weeks, opposing QBs facing the Dolphins have put up the 5th most DK points on a per game basis; the 3rd most DK points to opposing backs; the 2nd most to TEs. Remember Gronk is suspended for this game. I am not taking any fliers on the other Patriots TEs. So keeping all this in mind and looking at what Vegas tells us, the Pats will largely have a positive game script. So, this puts both RBs in play, although Dion Lewis gets the majority of carries. Still, Burkhead has been downright explosive. In their last 4 games, each RB has put up 3 different double digit fantasy performances. On the season, Lewis has 23 red zone looks while Burkhead has 18. Each back has 6 RZ looks in the last 3 weeks each. Just two weeks ago, Burkhead put up 19.3 to 12.3 for Lewis when they played Miami. So, I can see playing both guys in DFS.  Both are more of a GPP play. Heck, I will even have a double stack or two employing both backs and perhaps even the man himself, the big daddy Tom. Brady has 11 TDs in his last 4 meetings with Miami. He put up 22.7 DK points against them in Week #12. Keep in mind, usually the second meeting within a season is not as fruitful as the first as coaches have tape and can scheme a bit better. Finally, in the Pats last 4 games, 50% of the time, all three players, Brady, Lewis, and Burkhead managed double-digit draft Kings days.

 

 

Philly implied total = 25, facing the Rams, implied total = 26

If you are looking to Vegas to get a feel for a possible game stack, this is the one. This is the only matchup expected to finish north of 5o points, 51 to be exact. Sure the Pats/Miami has an over/under of 48.5, but Miami is only expected to score 2 TDs and change. Amazingly, these two teams are tied for the most points scored per game for this entire NFL season (30.1 each). On the season, each team has surpassed 30 points 8 different times so far. Heck, the Eagles have done it in 6 of their last 8 games. Keep your eyes peeled for Ertz news. He was concussed last week, failed to practice on Wednesday, and he got in a limited practice on Thursday. Trey Burton has been the TE to step up in Ertz’s absence. He could represent a great value on Draft Kings at just $2,900. The Rams have been tough against the position however, only allowing two TEs to amass 50 yards or more this season. This game will likely be a neutral game script, so it is hard to tell which position will go off. But with two implied team totals so high, the action is there. The easiest way to get exposure to scoring is through the QB position. However, Wentz is the most expensive QB on Draft Kings. Alshon Jeffery is 5th in air yards for the season. Pretend receivers caught every ball thrown to them and stopped right there, no yards after catch. That is basically what air yards represents. Jeffery is tied for 21st for Average Depth of Target per pass to WR. Not only that, he is 17th for WR targets. Air Yards is great for highlighting a receiver that is getting the attention just has not broken out. Well, Jeffery has been making up for lost time. In the last 5 games, he has 5 TDs. In the last 5 weeks, there have been 5 instances of a WR putting up 100 yards and/or scoring a TD against the Rams. Nelson Agholor had a monster game last week. His 27.1 Draft Kings points marks a career best. But he is far more volatile. Before last week, his best performance of 20.6 was followed up with a 7.9 DK performance against KC, a secondary that, on the season, is the 2nd worst against the position. Still, Agholor’s DK price is just $5,200, or $1,100 below Jeffery’s.

 

As for the Rams, Gurley is a great cash play this week. Considering you will basically get a free square with Gio Bernard, you can certainly afford Gurley’s price tag of $8,100. The Rams offensive line is ranked 5th best by Football Outsiders for Adjusted Line Yards, which is a fantastic stat used to calculate how good a line is for their running back. Alas however, there is always a rub. It just so happens that Philly ranks #1 for defensive Adjusted Line Yards. But, like the band Alabama sang, “You Can’t Keep a Good Man Down”, Gurley is a stud that rises above such defenses. Currently, no other running back is averaging more Draft Kings points per game than Mr. Todd Gurley. Robert Woods is Doubtful and has failed to practice so far this week. Watkins has certainly benefited in his two week absence. Sammy has 4 double-digit performances in the last 4 weeks. He has the higher ceiling and I like him in GPP only. Cooper Kupp can be considered in cash. Kupp is averaging nearly 8 targets per game in the last 6 weeks. But, I say “considered” because he will likely draw Patrick Robinson, the Eagles best CB. As always, nabbing a QB on a team expected to be in a shoot-out is a great way to get exposure to the majority of the scoring. Goff is the 3rd most expensive QB on draft Kings. At $6,600, he is $500 less than Wentz. In the last 5 weeks, Goff is Draft Kings 2nd best QB. He would be the QB I would back between the two. But a word to the wise, there are several cheaper QB plays this week, but with value guys like the aforementioned Gio, and Josh Gordon at just $5,500, and even Jermaine Kearse, who has put up back to back performances north of 26 DK points, is hard to ignore at just $4,800. Remember, Kerley is out. There are plenty of mid to low range priced players to choose from in Week #14

 

Pit implied total = 25.5 and are 7 point favorites

While there is not much that needs to be said about Le’Veon Bell, here are some things to remember. This is not on the main slate for Draft Kings as it is the Sunday night game. While Pitt is on the road, which does not favor Big Ben, it most certainly does Bell. For his career, he averages 4.0 ypc and has 9 TDs total at home. On the road, his ypc jumps to 4.61 and has racked up 22 TDs. The Steelers are favored by a TD despite being on the road. That means they should be playing with a lead for most of the game and relying on the ground game.

 

KC is home with a 26 point implied total, favored by 4.5 over Oakland

Alex Smith might have silenced some recent critics last week. This week, he can certainly continue such a performance against a fledgling Oakland D. In the last 5 weeks, only 5 teams are surrendering more DK points to opposing QBs than the Raiders. Oakland has 2 defensive players listed as Doubtful. Oakland is 22nd in D-line Adjusted Line Yards. This should give Smith time to find his downfield pass catchers. 17 WRs have put up double–digit DK days against Oakland this season. That list includes 3 different KC wide receivers from their earlier meeting this season. In that Week #7 game, Tyreek Hill amassed 25.2 DK points. His 36.5 DK performance last week is a career high. According to Football Outsiders, Oakland is dead last against opposing WR #1’s. I love a Smith/Hill stack this week. In GPP, I will even roll a tri-fecta by adding Hunt. He did have 87 yards in their previous meeting. Again, I am not playing him in cash, but will toss out a GPP triple stack. Why stop there. You want to get crazy, let’s get crazy. The Voltron stack, 4 players from one team. Oakland has always been notoriously bad against opposing TEs. Now, arguably, they face the league’s best in Travis Kelce. It seems he is immune to poor offensive play, which is just another reason he is a solid cash play this week. I will toss out one other solid cash play at the TE spot – Jason Witten.

 

Chargers are home with a 26.25 implied total. They opened as 6.5 favorites over the visiting Redskins

 

This game should have a positive game script for the Chargers. This makes Melvin Gordon another solid cash play at the RB spot. Gordon is tied for the 4th most carries among RBs this season. Out of the 6 RBs that have logged over 200 carries thus far, his points per opportunity in PPR is second highest (.46). Phillip Rivers is also in cash consideration. At $6,800, he is the 2nd most costly QB on the main slate. I do generally like to pay down at the QB position, and Prescott, at just $5,600 is tempting, plus you could even go lower with just $4,900 on Kizer. In cash, I think it is between Smith and Rivers. The Chargers QB put up over 31 DK points 2 weeks ago and just over 20 last week. He will face a Washington D that has allowed 5 different QBs to go for over 20 DK points this season. I know they have Norman, but he does not go in the slot, where Rivers will look for his favorite target in Keenan Allen. Allen, in the last 5 weeks, is averaging the 2nd most DK points for a WR. How good is that you ask? Well, his 5 week average is just .7 behind Antonio Brown on a per game basis. Hunter Henry is coming off his two best games of the season. The Redskins have allowed 10 different TEs to either score and/or go for over 90 yards this season.

 

Starting in Week 7, I started tossing out picks. My record thus far:

Straight bets Against the Spread: 10-5-2

For Week 14:

CHI (+6.5)

CLE (+3)

DAL (-3.5)

KC (-4)

NYJ (-1.5)

 

 

 

PyromaniacMo with a Founder's

 

By: PyromaniacMo

 

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PyromaniacMo with a Founder's

 

By: PyromaniacMo

 

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