July 19, 2018


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LeSean McCoy

Buffalo Bills

McCoy starring down 30 with uncertainty

LeSean McCoy, despite ending the year as the #7 fantasy running back in standard leagues was a slight disappointment for fantasy owners last year. McCoy played in all 16 regular season games, but only cracked 100 yards rushing 4 times, and averaged 4.0 yards per rush, which was 23rd in the NFL. That all happened with a formidable QB with a scrambling ability that defenses had to respect, presumably allowing McCoy some more room before tacklers ascended.
The Bills have the least sexy QB situation in the entire NFL in my opinion. With Tyrod Taylor at the helm for most of the season last year, the bills had the 31st passing offense. None of the QBs on the Bills roster are considered mobile and without a wide receiver on their roster worthy of drafting in any fantasy formats, defenses can stack the box against McCoy. McCoy will be overused, underperform and probably get hurt because of it. McCoy’s ADP is in the second round, but wouldn’t touch him until the fourth or beginning of the fifth round.

06/29/18, 12:42 PM CDT by C-wags


Tyreek Hill

Kansas City Chiefs

Hill lookin' busty with chiefs new look.

Tyreek Hill had a great 2017, amounting 75 receptions for 1183 yards and 7 touchdowns in 15 games. He’s currently being drafted in the middle of the third round in standard leagues, which would appear to be a great value. However, with promoted RB coach Eric Bieniemy presumably in-line to be the primary play caller, a new QB, Travis Kelce receiving the #1 target share and the addition of Sammy Watkins, I expect Hill’s numbers to decrease dramatically.
I believe Hill to be more of a boom or bust player this year. There’s no denying his break-away speed and ability to separate from defenders, and with Mahomes cannon of an arm, I expect them to connect deep on occasion. However, I believe Sammy Watkins to be the more complete receiver and likely to take more of the target share from Hill. Bundled with the change in offensive strategy toward the end of last year to run the ball more, the change to a young QB presumably resulting in a more conservative game plan, I see a major decline in the amount of touches Hill will get and see him as more of a 5-6 round flex play guy.

06/21/18, 10:54 AM CDT by C-wags


Eric Ebron

Detroit Lions

Ebron Could Use Some Luck

Colts signed TE Eric Ebron, formerly of the Lions, to a two-year contract. Coach Frank Reich called Ebron an "elite tight end."

The last time we saw Andrew Luck healthy (2016), the Colts used 2+ TE sets at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL and had the 6th-highest target share to TEs.

04/01/18, 11:32 AM CDT by Wheeler


Carlos Hyde

San Francisco 49ers

Hyde and Seek

Browns agreed to terms with RB Carlos Hyde, formerly of the 49ers, on a three-year, $15 million contract.

Obtaining Hyde has several trickle-down effects; first it replaces Crowell who signed with the Jets, it probably diminishes Duke Johnson’s value a bit. Hyde is a better all-around back than Crowell was and will certainly take over the goal-line work seeing that he’s got 20+ pounds on Duke. It also reduces the likelihood that Cleveland takes Saquon Barkley with the 4th pick in the draft. They will most likely look to draft a defensive player (Chubb) or trade down again.

04/01/18, 11:28 AM CDT by Wheeler


Jerick McKinnon

Minnesota Vikings

McKinnon Goes West For Gold-Rush

49ers agreed to terms with RB Jerick McKinnon, formerly of the Vikings, on a four-year, $30 million contract.

McKinnon averaged a ho-hum 3.8 yards a carry for the Vikings and scored three rushing touchdowns. By contrast, San Francisco's former lead runner, Carlos Hyde, averaged 3.9 yards an attempt in 2017 and had eight rushing touchdowns.

It appears as though Shanahan is enamored with McKinnon's athletic metrics, but I'm not so sure he was "pounding the table" to get him. This move could push the Niner's to cut Joe Williams.

04/01/18, 11:12 AM CDT by Wheeler


Mike Wallace

Baltimore Ravens

Eagles Keep Improving

Eagles signed WR Mike Wallace to a one-year contract.
Mike Wallace can still move posting a top five max speed among wide receivers last season. He will fill the void left by Torrey Smith as a speed vertical threat.

04/01/18, 11:08 AM CDT by Wheeler


Terrelle Pryor

Washington Redskins

Jets Searching For Weapons

Jets agreed to terms with WR Terrelle Pryor, formerly of Washington and Cleveland.

Second year in a row on a new team doesn’t really help Pryor's cause, but I like the idea of him on the field with Teddy Bridgewater at some point. I would imagine, with some creativity, the Jets could really design some innovative gadget plays.
The Jets receiving corps really looks like a bunch of question marks at this point though, no telling what the week-to-week outcome will be with these guys.
Jermaine Kearse: 65 catches, 810 yards, 5 touchdowns (2017)
Robby Anderson: 63 catches, 941 yards, 7 touchdowns (2017)
Quincy Enunwa: 58 catches, 857 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)
Terrelle Pryor: 77 catches, 1007 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)

04/01/18, 11:04 AM CDT by Wheeler


Carlos Henderson

Denver Broncos

Sleeper Watch

Broncos coach Vance Joseph said the team is "counting on" Carlos Henderson making an impact in 2018.

If you are paying attention to Staggs projections there is plenty of opportunity for Henderson to step into a solid number of targets in the slot. Henderson was hindered by injury and awful QB play last year. Being drafted in the 18th round or later in best-ball leagues, Henderson is the late round flyer that should be on your radar.

04/01/18, 11:00 AM CDT by Wheeler


Ben Watson

Baltimore Ravens

Watson Returns To Big Easy

Saints signed TE Ben Watson, formerly of the Ravens, to a one-year contract.

Watson had 74 catches on 110 targets for 825 yards and 6 TD’s when he was with the Saints in 2015. After missing 2016 he had a pretty good year with Baltimore last year despite an anemic offense, with 61 catches on 79 targets for 522 yards and 4 TD’s. He’s not a bad late round flyer TE. He’s basically free right now, but I expect by the time the season starts he’ll be being drafted within the top 20 at the position.

04/01/18, 10:54 AM CDT by Wheeler


Jeff Janis

Green Bay Packers

Janis Truthers Challenged

Browns officially signed former Packers’ WR Jeff Janis.
The combine superstar never amounted to anything in Green Bay, I highly doubt Cleveland is the place for him to finally break-out.

04/01/18, 10:50 AM CDT by Wheeler


Thomas Rawls

Seattle Seahawks

Jets Sign Rawls

Rawls had five RB1 games in 2015, one in 2016, and has been a disappointment since. He’s not worth your time in fantasy, but he could cause enough disruption in the Jets backfield to cut any upside we might have hoped for from Isaiah Crowell.

04/01/18, 10:48 AM CDT by Wheeler


Allen Robinson

Jacksonville Jaguars

Coo coo ca choo Mr. Robinson

Bears signed WR Allen Robinson, formerly of the Jaguars, to a three-year, $42 million contract.

This is a great move for Robinson and Chicago. Nagy’s offense and the young QB, Trubiski, should benefit Robinson at least as much as Bortles did, and Chicago gets the top WR in free agency.
Everyone on the team will be in a new scheme so there will be an adjustment, but as they start to gel we should see a big second half. Robinson’s recovery from a torn ACL doesn’t scare me away from drafting him in the late third/early fourth, his current MFL10 ADP is 43 overall while his Draft app ADP is 59.9. I expect Robinson to be somewhere in the range of 75 receptions, for 1100 yards and 8 TD’s.

03/24/18, 08:25 PM CDT by Wheeler


Sammy Watkins

Los Angeles Rams

KC Building Strong Air Attack

Chiefs signed Sammy Watkins, formerly of the Rams, to a three-year, $48 million contract.

I’m a big Sammy truther so getting him in the 5th or 6th round is a pure power move. His current Draft app ADP of 87.1 is an absolute steal, his MFL10 ADP of 69.5 is still a great value in my opinion. There are quite a few options for high targets in KC so I don’t expect him to see the 128 targets he saw his rookie year, but he should definitely see more than the 70 he saw last year. He’ll have an entire offseason to work with the near-rookie QB, and at age 25 he should have enough burst left to have a 70 catch, 1050 yd, 8TD line. For his career he has 16 receptions on 30 targets for 12 TD’s in the Red Zone, and 9 receptions on 13 targets, for 8 TD’s inside the opponents 10. He should be the exact WR the Chiefs need to get over the hump. As a team the Chiefs were 34/75 for 13 TD’s in the Red-Zone last year and 12/24 for 10 TD inside the 10.

03/24/18, 08:19 PM CDT by Wheeler


Kirk Cousins

Washington Redskins

Vikings Like That

Kirk Cousins plans to sign a three-year, fully-guaranteed contract from the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday. The deal is believed to be for around $86 million, and reports are it will be fully-guaranteed, a landmark for an NFL free agent.

Should be a lateral move for Kirk as far as fantasy, better WR’s, but fewer passes thrown in this offense. A healthy Dalvin Cook should be able to run out the clock if they are up in the second half of games and take the ball out of Cousins hands near the end zone. It should also help the overall efficiency of the offense so all in all it increases his floor, but cuts any garbage-time production we’ve seen with Washington. Kyle Rudolph becomes a big benefactor here, Cousins loves his TE, especially near the end-zone.

03/24/18, 08:16 PM CDT by Wheeler


Case Keenum

Minnesota Vikings

Denver Makes Case

Broncos signed QB Case Keenum, formerly of the Vikings, to a two-year, $36 million contract.

Well, I was hoping for more than a bridge QB for my favorite WR (D. Thomas), but this is a definite upgrade from the three stooges Denver put behind center last year.

03/24/18, 08:13 PM CDT by Wheeler


LeGarrette Blount

Philadelphia Eagles

Detroit Sparks Up Blount

The Lions signed free agent RB LeGarrette Blount to a 1-year deal worth $4.5M. He’s back with Matt Patricia, as the New England ties are strong.

The Lions have needed a true goal-line/power-back for years. I expect Blount to get between 150-200 touches and all the short-yardage carries. Detroit’s offense doesn’t really fit what Blount brings to the table, but I expect Patricia will have some influence over how the offense will operate from here-on-out.

03/24/18, 08:10 PM CDT by Wheeler


Cleveland Browns

Money Ball: The Sequel

Hate to start out the offseason with the Cleveland Browns, but they are makin’ moves!
Browns acquired: Tyrod Taylor, Jarvis Landry, Damarious Randall
Browns gave up: 2018 3rd-round pick (No. 65), 2018 4th-round pick, 2019 7th-round pick, DeShone Kizer

Building with experienced quality performers that have something to prove, by selling inconsequential draft picks is exactly what Sashi Brown was building up for. It’s a shame he won’t be around to reap the rewards, but these are quality moves for a win-now mentality.

03/09/18, 09:37 PM CST by Wheeler


Tyrod Taylor

Buffalo Bills

Hue Looks To TyGoat

Browns left tackle Joe Thomas, who's pondering his future, is a fan of Tyrod Taylor and has said so on the ThomaHawk Show podcast.

Tyrod is just one season removed (2016) from being the QB11 in average fantasy ppg, including seven 20+ point weeks and six 15+ point weeks. Given the current talent on the O-line and skill position weapons he could improve on those numbers. He has the potential to be this year’s Alex Smith, definitely heading my late-round (12+) QB picks now.

03/09/18, 09:32 PM CST by Wheeler


Deshone Kizer

Cleveland Browns

Packers Get In On The Fun

The Packers have traded for QB DeShone Kizer from the Browns to Green Bay.

This is the best possible scenario for Kizer, who was thrown into the fire last season. Getting the chance to develop and learn behind the best in the business is the best chance he has for longevity.

03/09/18, 09:30 PM CST by Wheeler


Torrey Smith

Philadelphia Eagles

On The Move Again

The Eagles trade WR Torrey Smith to the Panthers for CB Daryl Worley. Torrey Smith could fill the old Ted Ginn role which makes this fairly interesting. Stagg Party says it’s more of a boost for Cam than Torrey himself.

This is an absolute perfect fit, someone who isn’t going to demand the ball, but can take the top off a defense while McCaffrey, Olsen, and Cam work underneath. Torrey is looking like a great late-round flyer.

03/09/18, 09:28 PM CST by Wheeler


Vegas landscape for week fourteen - vegas implied point total

Vegas Vantage Point for Week 14

Posted by PyromaniacMo on 12/08/17

by   The Archer


More Articals


This weekly piece is intended to shed light on two primary factors that can weigh heavily upon your fantasy football decision making. Basically, we want to use Vegas in a helpful, predictive way. The first advantage to be gained exposes teams that are likely to be amongst the highest scoring of the week. Next, we want to prognosticate even further and decide which positions, on those teams, will get the most opportunity to score. In other words, which teams will score points, and which positions have the best chance of leading those teams.


Vegas Implied Point Total Week 14


The IND/BUF and the DET/TB games both opened OFF and are still not taking bets as of 12-8-17


PATS implied total – 30.25, favored by 12  

New England, is a Vegas darling. For week #14, they play on Monday night, which you will want to keep in mind when selecting your slates on DFS. In their last 7 meetings, this matchup has surpassed the over/under 5 times. Not only that, in their last 7 games overall, Miami has gone over the spread. The Dolphins are allowing the 8th most points per game this NFL season. For fantasy purposes, it is hard to find a better D to face. In the last 5 weeks, opposing QBs facing the Dolphins have put up the 5th most DK points on a per game basis; the 3rd most DK points to opposing backs; the 2nd most to TEs. Remember Gronk is suspended for this game. I am not taking any fliers on the other Patriots TEs. So keeping all this in mind and looking at what Vegas tells us, the Pats will largely have a positive game script. So, this puts both RBs in play, although Dion Lewis gets the majority of carries. Still, Burkhead has been downright explosive. In their last 4 games, each RB has put up 3 different double digit fantasy performances. On the season, Lewis has 23 red zone looks while Burkhead has 18. Each back has 6 RZ looks in the last 3 weeks each. Just two weeks ago, Burkhead put up 19.3 to 12.3 for Lewis when they played Miami. So, I can see playing both guys in DFS.  Both are more of a GPP play. Heck, I will even have a double stack or two employing both backs and perhaps even the man himself, the big daddy Tom. Brady has 11 TDs in his last 4 meetings with Miami. He put up 22.7 DK points against them in Week #12. Keep in mind, usually the second meeting within a season is not as fruitful as the first as coaches have tape and can scheme a bit better. Finally, in the Pats last 4 games, 50% of the time, all three players, Brady, Lewis, and Burkhead managed double-digit draft Kings days.



Philly implied total = 25, facing the Rams, implied total = 26

If you are looking to Vegas to get a feel for a possible game stack, this is the one. This is the only matchup expected to finish north of 5o points, 51 to be exact. Sure the Pats/Miami has an over/under of 48.5, but Miami is only expected to score 2 TDs and change. Amazingly, these two teams are tied for the most points scored per game for this entire NFL season (30.1 each). On the season, each team has surpassed 30 points 8 different times so far. Heck, the Eagles have done it in 6 of their last 8 games. Keep your eyes peeled for Ertz news. He was concussed last week, failed to practice on Wednesday, and he got in a limited practice on Thursday. Trey Burton has been the TE to step up in Ertz’s absence. He could represent a great value on Draft Kings at just $2,900. The Rams have been tough against the position however, only allowing two TEs to amass 50 yards or more this season. This game will likely be a neutral game script, so it is hard to tell which position will go off. But with two implied team totals so high, the action is there. The easiest way to get exposure to scoring is through the QB position. However, Wentz is the most expensive QB on Draft Kings. Alshon Jeffery is 5th in air yards for the season. Pretend receivers caught every ball thrown to them and stopped right there, no yards after catch. That is basically what air yards represents. Jeffery is tied for 21st for Average Depth of Target per pass to WR. Not only that, he is 17th for WR targets. Air Yards is great for highlighting a receiver that is getting the attention just has not broken out. Well, Jeffery has been making up for lost time. In the last 5 games, he has 5 TDs. In the last 5 weeks, there have been 5 instances of a WR putting up 100 yards and/or scoring a TD against the Rams. Nelson Agholor had a monster game last week. His 27.1 Draft Kings points marks a career best. But he is far more volatile. Before last week, his best performance of 20.6 was followed up with a 7.9 DK performance against KC, a secondary that, on the season, is the 2nd worst against the position. Still, Agholor’s DK price is just $5,200, or $1,100 below Jeffery’s.


As for the Rams, Gurley is a great cash play this week. Considering you will basically get a free square with Gio Bernard, you can certainly afford Gurley’s price tag of $8,100. The Rams offensive line is ranked 5th best by Football Outsiders for Adjusted Line Yards, which is a fantastic stat used to calculate how good a line is for their running back. Alas however, there is always a rub. It just so happens that Philly ranks #1 for defensive Adjusted Line Yards. But, like the band Alabama sang, “You Can’t Keep a Good Man Down”, Gurley is a stud that rises above such defenses. Currently, no other running back is averaging more Draft Kings points per game than Mr. Todd Gurley. Robert Woods is Doubtful and has failed to practice so far this week. Watkins has certainly benefited in his two week absence. Sammy has 4 double-digit performances in the last 4 weeks. He has the higher ceiling and I like him in GPP only. Cooper Kupp can be considered in cash. Kupp is averaging nearly 8 targets per game in the last 6 weeks. But, I say “considered” because he will likely draw Patrick Robinson, the Eagles best CB. As always, nabbing a QB on a team expected to be in a shoot-out is a great way to get exposure to the majority of the scoring. Goff is the 3rd most expensive QB on draft Kings. At $6,600, he is $500 less than Wentz. In the last 5 weeks, Goff is Draft Kings 2nd best QB. He would be the QB I would back between the two. But a word to the wise, there are several cheaper QB plays this week, but with value guys like the aforementioned Gio, and Josh Gordon at just $5,500, and even Jermaine Kearse, who has put up back to back performances north of 26 DK points, is hard to ignore at just $4,800. Remember, Kerley is out. There are plenty of mid to low range priced players to choose from in Week #14


Pit implied total = 25.5 and are 7 point favorites

While there is not much that needs to be said about Le’Veon Bell, here are some things to remember. This is not on the main slate for Draft Kings as it is the Sunday night game. While Pitt is on the road, which does not favor Big Ben, it most certainly does Bell. For his career, he averages 4.0 ypc and has 9 TDs total at home. On the road, his ypc jumps to 4.61 and has racked up 22 TDs. The Steelers are favored by a TD despite being on the road. That means they should be playing with a lead for most of the game and relying on the ground game.


KC is home with a 26 point implied total, favored by 4.5 over Oakland

Alex Smith might have silenced some recent critics last week. This week, he can certainly continue such a performance against a fledgling Oakland D. In the last 5 weeks, only 5 teams are surrendering more DK points to opposing QBs than the Raiders. Oakland has 2 defensive players listed as Doubtful. Oakland is 22nd in D-line Adjusted Line Yards. This should give Smith time to find his downfield pass catchers. 17 WRs have put up double–digit DK days against Oakland this season. That list includes 3 different KC wide receivers from their earlier meeting this season. In that Week #7 game, Tyreek Hill amassed 25.2 DK points. His 36.5 DK performance last week is a career high. According to Football Outsiders, Oakland is dead last against opposing WR #1’s. I love a Smith/Hill stack this week. In GPP, I will even roll a tri-fecta by adding Hunt. He did have 87 yards in their previous meeting. Again, I am not playing him in cash, but will toss out a GPP triple stack. Why stop there. You want to get crazy, let’s get crazy. The Voltron stack, 4 players from one team. Oakland has always been notoriously bad against opposing TEs. Now, arguably, they face the league’s best in Travis Kelce. It seems he is immune to poor offensive play, which is just another reason he is a solid cash play this week. I will toss out one other solid cash play at the TE spot – Jason Witten.


Chargers are home with a 26.25 implied total. They opened as 6.5 favorites over the visiting Redskins


This game should have a positive game script for the Chargers. This makes Melvin Gordon another solid cash play at the RB spot. Gordon is tied for the 4th most carries among RBs this season. Out of the 6 RBs that have logged over 200 carries thus far, his points per opportunity in PPR is second highest (.46). Phillip Rivers is also in cash consideration. At $6,800, he is the 2nd most costly QB on the main slate. I do generally like to pay down at the QB position, and Prescott, at just $5,600 is tempting, plus you could even go lower with just $4,900 on Kizer. In cash, I think it is between Smith and Rivers. The Chargers QB put up over 31 DK points 2 weeks ago and just over 20 last week. He will face a Washington D that has allowed 5 different QBs to go for over 20 DK points this season. I know they have Norman, but he does not go in the slot, where Rivers will look for his favorite target in Keenan Allen. Allen, in the last 5 weeks, is averaging the 2nd most DK points for a WR. How good is that you ask? Well, his 5 week average is just .7 behind Antonio Brown on a per game basis. Hunter Henry is coming off his two best games of the season. The Redskins have allowed 10 different TEs to either score and/or go for over 90 yards this season.


Starting in Week 7, I started tossing out picks. My record thus far:

Straight bets Against the Spread: 10-5-2

For Week 14:

CHI (+6.5)

CLE (+3)

DAL (-3.5)

KC (-4)

NYJ (-1.5)




PyromaniacMo with a Founder's


By: PyromaniacMo


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PyromaniacMo with a Founder's


By: PyromaniacMo


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