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Vegas landscape for week sixteen - vegas implied point total

Vegas Vantage Point for Week 16

Posted by PyromaniacMo on 12/23/17

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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This weekly piece is intended to shed light on two primary factors that can weigh heavily upon your fantasy football decision making. Basically, we want to use Vegas in a helpful, predictive way. The first advantage to be gained exposes teams that are likely to be amongst the highest scoring of the week. Next, we want to prognosticate even further and decide which positions, on those teams, will get the most opportunity to score. In other words, which teams will score points, and which positions have the best chance of leading those teams.

 

Vegas Implied Poin Total Week 16


A word to the wise, I start tapering off my weekly allotment in DFS money during week 16. There are some teams that will likely look to rest a few guys for playoffs. There are others who are out that may want to test a RB or two before the off season. So, I do reduce my weekly budget for DFS. Next week, I generally do not play at all. For the playoffs, I might toss out a GPP lineup just for fun, but that is about it. Sadly, the DFS season is coming to an end. But not quite yet…

 

Baltimore has both a high implied team total (26.75) and the highest spread of the week. This could be a perfect opportunity for Alex Collins, fantasy’s 7th best RB in the last 5 weeks. Baltimore is ranked 8th best for rushing offense according to Football Outsiders. They will face an Indy team that allowed both McCoy and CJ Anderson to surpass 150 rushing yards in each of their last 2 games.

 

Both Vikings backs should be in play as they are 9 point favorites and are expected to score over 26 points. This should favor a positive ground game. McKinnon is typically their pass catcher, thus the Vegas numbers suggest Murray as he is their between the tackles back. Murray is 4th in the NFL in red zone rushing attempts with 37.

 

New Orleans has the highest implied total of the slate. Vegas has the Saints pegged to score 29.5 points against visiting Atlanta. How can you not love both Saints RBs – Ingram, 10th in red zone attempts, and Kamara. Amazingly, in the last 5 weeks, both of these backs are inside the top 4 for Draft Kings scoring during that time. This one could easily turn into a shootout, which opens up Atlanta’s passing game.

 

You have to love KC’s running game as they are 10 point favorites over a visiting Miami team that has a weighted Defensive rank of just 23rd on Football Outsiders. Since Andy Reid handed offensive play calling over to Matt Nagy, Akeem Hunt looks like his early season self again. He put up 22.8 and then 39.6 Draft Kings points since the Nagy appointment.

 

How can we have a Vegas piece without looking to the Patriots. The Pats are favored by just over 10 and are expected to score almost 29 points. They will be without Burkhead, which could mean this is a great week for Dion Lewis. However, Wild Bill could also call up plays for Gillislee, or even White. Because of the multiple outcomes, I would only use these players in GPP situations.

 

Carolina has a favorable spread as well (-9). Although McCaffrey is not their typical ground back, I am not counting on a J-Stew. McCaffrey has 5 games over 20 Draft Kings points. He has 5 overall TDs in the last 6 games. Cam Newton is a fantastic cash pick this week as he is always a dual threat. Plus, the Tampa CBs are collectively, quite possibly the worst in the NFL.

 

Gurley and the Rams are a great pick as they have an implied team total of nearly 29 and are favored by almost a TD.  Plus, Woods will be back in the receiver fold. I could see the Rams easily surpassing their implied team total against the Titans.

 

The Steelers are 10 point favorites and have an implied team total of 27. Do I need to even mention the Bell and Brown. In the last 5 weeks, they are at the top of their positions for average Draft Kings points scored on a per game basis. Houston has Gawd awful corners. They have surrendered 16  touchdowns to opposing WRs, and allowed 7 of them to get that 100 yard bonus on Draft Kings. As for opposing backs, 11 all-purpose TDs and 3 of the opposing backs went for at least 100 yards. Finally, Houston is allowing a league high 27.1 points to their opponents.

 

Last but not least, Philly has the 3rd highest implied team total of the week at just 28.25 and carry a spread of 8. This game is expected to be the 3rd highest scoring game of the week as Philly has opened the flood gates on the defensive side. I could see Crabtree doing well with lots of looks by Carr as they will need to put up points to stay in this. Walford has not practiced all week and Cooper has only managed 1 limited practice so far. On the Philly side, remember Foles tossed 4 TDs last week. The Philly receivers have a tougher time this week however. According to PFF, Agholor has a slightly more favorable matchup.

 

Starting in Week 7, I started tossing out picks. My record thus far:

Straight bets Against the Spread: 14-8-4

 

For Week 16:

 DET (-3)

LAC (-6.5)

LAR (-6.5)

WAS (-3)

OAK (+9)

 

 

 

PyromaniacMo with a Founder's

 

By: PyromaniacMo

 

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PyromaniacMo with a Founder's

 

By: PyromaniacMo

 

Subscribe to the Pyro Podcast: http://iTunes.com/Podcasts/PyroPodcast

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