July 19, 2018


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LeSean McCoy

Buffalo Bills

McCoy starring down 30 with uncertainty

LeSean McCoy, despite ending the year as the #7 fantasy running back in standard leagues was a slight disappointment for fantasy owners last year. McCoy played in all 16 regular season games, but only cracked 100 yards rushing 4 times, and averaged 4.0 yards per rush, which was 23rd in the NFL. That all happened with a formidable QB with a scrambling ability that defenses had to respect, presumably allowing McCoy some more room before tacklers ascended.
The Bills have the least sexy QB situation in the entire NFL in my opinion. With Tyrod Taylor at the helm for most of the season last year, the bills had the 31st passing offense. None of the QBs on the Bills roster are considered mobile and without a wide receiver on their roster worthy of drafting in any fantasy formats, defenses can stack the box against McCoy. McCoy will be overused, underperform and probably get hurt because of it. McCoy’s ADP is in the second round, but wouldn’t touch him until the fourth or beginning of the fifth round.

06/29/18, 12:42 PM CDT by C-wags


Tyreek Hill

Kansas City Chiefs

Hill lookin' busty with chiefs new look.

Tyreek Hill had a great 2017, amounting 75 receptions for 1183 yards and 7 touchdowns in 15 games. He’s currently being drafted in the middle of the third round in standard leagues, which would appear to be a great value. However, with promoted RB coach Eric Bieniemy presumably in-line to be the primary play caller, a new QB, Travis Kelce receiving the #1 target share and the addition of Sammy Watkins, I expect Hill’s numbers to decrease dramatically.
I believe Hill to be more of a boom or bust player this year. There’s no denying his break-away speed and ability to separate from defenders, and with Mahomes cannon of an arm, I expect them to connect deep on occasion. However, I believe Sammy Watkins to be the more complete receiver and likely to take more of the target share from Hill. Bundled with the change in offensive strategy toward the end of last year to run the ball more, the change to a young QB presumably resulting in a more conservative game plan, I see a major decline in the amount of touches Hill will get and see him as more of a 5-6 round flex play guy.

06/21/18, 10:54 AM CDT by C-wags


Eric Ebron

Detroit Lions

Ebron Could Use Some Luck

Colts signed TE Eric Ebron, formerly of the Lions, to a two-year contract. Coach Frank Reich called Ebron an "elite tight end."

The last time we saw Andrew Luck healthy (2016), the Colts used 2+ TE sets at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL and had the 6th-highest target share to TEs.

04/01/18, 11:32 AM CDT by Wheeler


Carlos Hyde

San Francisco 49ers

Hyde and Seek

Browns agreed to terms with RB Carlos Hyde, formerly of the 49ers, on a three-year, $15 million contract.

Obtaining Hyde has several trickle-down effects; first it replaces Crowell who signed with the Jets, it probably diminishes Duke Johnson’s value a bit. Hyde is a better all-around back than Crowell was and will certainly take over the goal-line work seeing that he’s got 20+ pounds on Duke. It also reduces the likelihood that Cleveland takes Saquon Barkley with the 4th pick in the draft. They will most likely look to draft a defensive player (Chubb) or trade down again.

04/01/18, 11:28 AM CDT by Wheeler


Jerick McKinnon

Minnesota Vikings

McKinnon Goes West For Gold-Rush

49ers agreed to terms with RB Jerick McKinnon, formerly of the Vikings, on a four-year, $30 million contract.

McKinnon averaged a ho-hum 3.8 yards a carry for the Vikings and scored three rushing touchdowns. By contrast, San Francisco's former lead runner, Carlos Hyde, averaged 3.9 yards an attempt in 2017 and had eight rushing touchdowns.

It appears as though Shanahan is enamored with McKinnon's athletic metrics, but I'm not so sure he was "pounding the table" to get him. This move could push the Niner's to cut Joe Williams.

04/01/18, 11:12 AM CDT by Wheeler


Mike Wallace

Baltimore Ravens

Eagles Keep Improving

Eagles signed WR Mike Wallace to a one-year contract.
Mike Wallace can still move posting a top five max speed among wide receivers last season. He will fill the void left by Torrey Smith as a speed vertical threat.

04/01/18, 11:08 AM CDT by Wheeler


Terrelle Pryor

Washington Redskins

Jets Searching For Weapons

Jets agreed to terms with WR Terrelle Pryor, formerly of Washington and Cleveland.

Second year in a row on a new team doesn’t really help Pryor's cause, but I like the idea of him on the field with Teddy Bridgewater at some point. I would imagine, with some creativity, the Jets could really design some innovative gadget plays.
The Jets receiving corps really looks like a bunch of question marks at this point though, no telling what the week-to-week outcome will be with these guys.
Jermaine Kearse: 65 catches, 810 yards, 5 touchdowns (2017)
Robby Anderson: 63 catches, 941 yards, 7 touchdowns (2017)
Quincy Enunwa: 58 catches, 857 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)
Terrelle Pryor: 77 catches, 1007 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)

04/01/18, 11:04 AM CDT by Wheeler


Carlos Henderson

Denver Broncos

Sleeper Watch

Broncos coach Vance Joseph said the team is "counting on" Carlos Henderson making an impact in 2018.

If you are paying attention to Staggs projections there is plenty of opportunity for Henderson to step into a solid number of targets in the slot. Henderson was hindered by injury and awful QB play last year. Being drafted in the 18th round or later in best-ball leagues, Henderson is the late round flyer that should be on your radar.

04/01/18, 11:00 AM CDT by Wheeler


Ben Watson

Baltimore Ravens

Watson Returns To Big Easy

Saints signed TE Ben Watson, formerly of the Ravens, to a one-year contract.

Watson had 74 catches on 110 targets for 825 yards and 6 TD’s when he was with the Saints in 2015. After missing 2016 he had a pretty good year with Baltimore last year despite an anemic offense, with 61 catches on 79 targets for 522 yards and 4 TD’s. He’s not a bad late round flyer TE. He’s basically free right now, but I expect by the time the season starts he’ll be being drafted within the top 20 at the position.

04/01/18, 10:54 AM CDT by Wheeler


Jeff Janis

Green Bay Packers

Janis Truthers Challenged

Browns officially signed former Packers’ WR Jeff Janis.
The combine superstar never amounted to anything in Green Bay, I highly doubt Cleveland is the place for him to finally break-out.

04/01/18, 10:50 AM CDT by Wheeler


Thomas Rawls

Seattle Seahawks

Jets Sign Rawls

Rawls had five RB1 games in 2015, one in 2016, and has been a disappointment since. He’s not worth your time in fantasy, but he could cause enough disruption in the Jets backfield to cut any upside we might have hoped for from Isaiah Crowell.

04/01/18, 10:48 AM CDT by Wheeler


Allen Robinson

Jacksonville Jaguars

Coo coo ca choo Mr. Robinson

Bears signed WR Allen Robinson, formerly of the Jaguars, to a three-year, $42 million contract.

This is a great move for Robinson and Chicago. Nagy’s offense and the young QB, Trubiski, should benefit Robinson at least as much as Bortles did, and Chicago gets the top WR in free agency.
Everyone on the team will be in a new scheme so there will be an adjustment, but as they start to gel we should see a big second half. Robinson’s recovery from a torn ACL doesn’t scare me away from drafting him in the late third/early fourth, his current MFL10 ADP is 43 overall while his Draft app ADP is 59.9. I expect Robinson to be somewhere in the range of 75 receptions, for 1100 yards and 8 TD’s.

03/24/18, 08:25 PM CDT by Wheeler


Sammy Watkins

Los Angeles Rams

KC Building Strong Air Attack

Chiefs signed Sammy Watkins, formerly of the Rams, to a three-year, $48 million contract.

I’m a big Sammy truther so getting him in the 5th or 6th round is a pure power move. His current Draft app ADP of 87.1 is an absolute steal, his MFL10 ADP of 69.5 is still a great value in my opinion. There are quite a few options for high targets in KC so I don’t expect him to see the 128 targets he saw his rookie year, but he should definitely see more than the 70 he saw last year. He’ll have an entire offseason to work with the near-rookie QB, and at age 25 he should have enough burst left to have a 70 catch, 1050 yd, 8TD line. For his career he has 16 receptions on 30 targets for 12 TD’s in the Red Zone, and 9 receptions on 13 targets, for 8 TD’s inside the opponents 10. He should be the exact WR the Chiefs need to get over the hump. As a team the Chiefs were 34/75 for 13 TD’s in the Red-Zone last year and 12/24 for 10 TD inside the 10.

03/24/18, 08:19 PM CDT by Wheeler


Kirk Cousins

Washington Redskins

Vikings Like That

Kirk Cousins plans to sign a three-year, fully-guaranteed contract from the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday. The deal is believed to be for around $86 million, and reports are it will be fully-guaranteed, a landmark for an NFL free agent.

Should be a lateral move for Kirk as far as fantasy, better WR’s, but fewer passes thrown in this offense. A healthy Dalvin Cook should be able to run out the clock if they are up in the second half of games and take the ball out of Cousins hands near the end zone. It should also help the overall efficiency of the offense so all in all it increases his floor, but cuts any garbage-time production we’ve seen with Washington. Kyle Rudolph becomes a big benefactor here, Cousins loves his TE, especially near the end-zone.

03/24/18, 08:16 PM CDT by Wheeler


Case Keenum

Minnesota Vikings

Denver Makes Case

Broncos signed QB Case Keenum, formerly of the Vikings, to a two-year, $36 million contract.

Well, I was hoping for more than a bridge QB for my favorite WR (D. Thomas), but this is a definite upgrade from the three stooges Denver put behind center last year.

03/24/18, 08:13 PM CDT by Wheeler


LeGarrette Blount

Philadelphia Eagles

Detroit Sparks Up Blount

The Lions signed free agent RB LeGarrette Blount to a 1-year deal worth $4.5M. He’s back with Matt Patricia, as the New England ties are strong.

The Lions have needed a true goal-line/power-back for years. I expect Blount to get between 150-200 touches and all the short-yardage carries. Detroit’s offense doesn’t really fit what Blount brings to the table, but I expect Patricia will have some influence over how the offense will operate from here-on-out.

03/24/18, 08:10 PM CDT by Wheeler


Cleveland Browns

Money Ball: The Sequel

Hate to start out the offseason with the Cleveland Browns, but they are makin’ moves!
Browns acquired: Tyrod Taylor, Jarvis Landry, Damarious Randall
Browns gave up: 2018 3rd-round pick (No. 65), 2018 4th-round pick, 2019 7th-round pick, DeShone Kizer

Building with experienced quality performers that have something to prove, by selling inconsequential draft picks is exactly what Sashi Brown was building up for. It’s a shame he won’t be around to reap the rewards, but these are quality moves for a win-now mentality.

03/09/18, 09:37 PM CST by Wheeler


Tyrod Taylor

Buffalo Bills

Hue Looks To TyGoat

Browns left tackle Joe Thomas, who's pondering his future, is a fan of Tyrod Taylor and has said so on the ThomaHawk Show podcast.

Tyrod is just one season removed (2016) from being the QB11 in average fantasy ppg, including seven 20+ point weeks and six 15+ point weeks. Given the current talent on the O-line and skill position weapons he could improve on those numbers. He has the potential to be this year’s Alex Smith, definitely heading my late-round (12+) QB picks now.

03/09/18, 09:32 PM CST by Wheeler


Deshone Kizer

Cleveland Browns

Packers Get In On The Fun

The Packers have traded for QB DeShone Kizer from the Browns to Green Bay.

This is the best possible scenario for Kizer, who was thrown into the fire last season. Getting the chance to develop and learn behind the best in the business is the best chance he has for longevity.

03/09/18, 09:30 PM CST by Wheeler


Torrey Smith

Philadelphia Eagles

On The Move Again

The Eagles trade WR Torrey Smith to the Panthers for CB Daryl Worley. Torrey Smith could fill the old Ted Ginn role which makes this fairly interesting. Stagg Party says it’s more of a boost for Cam than Torrey himself.

This is an absolute perfect fit, someone who isn’t going to demand the ball, but can take the top off a defense while McCaffrey, Olsen, and Cam work underneath. Torrey is looking like a great late-round flyer.

03/09/18, 09:28 PM CST by Wheeler


Vegas landscape for week eight - vegas implied point total

Vegas Vantage Point for Week 8

Posted by PyromaniacMo on 10/27/17

by   The Archer


More Articals


This weekly piece is intended to shed light on two primary factors that can weigh heavily upon your fantasy football decision making. Basically, we want to use Vegas in a helpful, predictive way. The first advantage to be gained exposes teams that are likely to be amongst the highest scoring of the week. Obviously, the more touchdowns a team puts up, the more fantasy points those players will have. For this, we will look at implied team totals.


So, now that we have identified the hottest teams of the week, we want to prognosticate even further and decide which positions, on those teams, will get the most opportunity to score. Does Vegas tell us a high scoring team will likely be playing with a lead? If this is the case, then such a positive game-script indicates more rushing attempts. Thus, we want RBs on those teams. If Vegas expects a higher scoring team to be on the losing end of a shoot-out, that is to play from behind, this tells us to expect more of a passing attack.


That’s it. In essence, we are looking for high implied team totals and an indication as to which positions will likely get the most opportunity to score those points.



Week 8 Vegas Implied Point Total and Details



The highest implied team total for Week 8 is none other than the Eagles. Vegas has them scoring nearly 30 points. They are facing the visiting 49ers, who are the fastest paced team in the league, and simultaneously the least efficient. Essentially that means that Philly should expect a significant increase in the amount of offensive snaps. That means opportunity, opportunity, opportunity. Although it is a positive game script, let’s spend a minute looking at the Eagles’ air attack. Wentz is on fire and will quite possibly be tossing it towards three of the worst cornerbacks in the league. According to PFF, Nelson Agholor has the most advantageous matchup for any starting WR this week. Alshon Jeffery is not far behind. Jeffery has faced some real shut down corners lately. Because of this, the impression is given that the team is not looking to him, or somehow he is not performing. Such is not the case, he is actually 3rd in air yards. I love both Eagles WRs in DFS this week. Heck, I am sprinkling in some Wentz as well. Only the Patriots are giving up more fantasy goo to opposing gunslingers than the 49ers. Plus, how can you not love the ground game. As stated, this should be a positive game script as Philly also opened with the highest spread, 11.5. San Fran has allowed the most carries of 5 yards or more. If indeed the spread is accurate, you can easily see the Eagles relying on the ground attack to chew up the clock. Thus, I also like Blount and I am not alone. PFF grades all the positions. As far as rushing grades for NFL running backs, Blount is graded as the 12th best. Especially in Fan Duel, Blount is a nice play.


The next highest implied point total goes to the Saints, who are home to Chicago. New Orleans is expected to rack up 4 TDs and win by more than a score. So, not only do I want Saints players, especially at home, but I want their RBs especially. Currently, a debate rages concerning the best Saints back to roll in DFS. Even on full point PPR, I still like Ingram. In the last 3 weeks, Ingram has racked up 57 looks to 30 for Kamara. So, Ingram is playing in a friendly home environment, has been getting nearly 2-1 looks in the last three games, and the team is expected to score 4 TDs, and win by more than a full touchdown. You know how Fox likes to run the ball. Well, the Saints could very easily get out to an early lead and just take the air out of the ball, something Fox does by second nature seemingly. This is perhaps the most likely of outcomes, and that is exactly the name of the game here; we are trying to narrow down a few games and look to the most likely outcomes and thus indentifying game scripts and teams that will have plenty of opportunity to score. This week, the Saints are right up there.


Of course, Vegas loves the Patriots. There is plenty of talk that New England’s D found its stride. Really? There was a Stephen King like fog that settled on the stadium last week, and Matt Ryan just down right had a bad game. I can see this one getting into a shootout. Now, the Chargers are a funnel D. Football Outsiders have them as a top 10 pass D, but only ranked 27th versus the rush. Now with New England, that could be one of four backs, but if I load up one, Dion Lewis looks great again, and Wild Bill has been relying on him more and more. On the other side of the ball, I think Rivers can certainly have a game, after all, the Pats are still allowing the most fantasy points to opposing gunslingers. I love a GPP stack with Rivers and K. Allen. Mr. Allen will draw the most coverage from Eric Rowe. PFF has 110 grades for CBs in coverage. Well, Rowe ranks 109, so, the optimists can say he is not THE worst CB graded. So he’s got that going for him.


Last week, we say Amari Cooper loyalists get paid off. Well, I believe the positive TD regression will continue for Julio as well. He got his first score last week, in what ended up being a terrible game for Matty Ice. Despite the team’s woes, Julio still has 3 games over 90 yards. He faces the Jets who just gave up 3 TDs last week to WRs alone.  Atlanta does have the 4th highest implied total of the week, as they are expected to put up 27 points. They are on the road. Despite that, and considering their performance last week, Vegas still picks them as the favorite. Road favorites have been paying off lately in DFS. That basically means if the game was in Atlanta, then Vegas would expect the team to win by double-digits. Freeman is always a solid play, especially in Draft Kings where he is getting rewarded for receptions. A back like that rises to the occasion regardless of game-script.


The following reflects current Vegas numbers, not opening.


Now, I have done exceptionally well in straight betting this year. So last week I tossed out my favorite pick, taking Jacksonville ATS, or Against the Spread. Well, they dominated last week, so let us see if that trend can’t keep going. As much as I hate bets involving my beloved Lions, in the last two games, both Bell and Brown have been the games leading rusher and receiver. Big Ben, only has 1 INT in that time and 3 TDs. Golden Tate is banged up and the Steelers have arguably one of the best pass defenses in the league. Pit is just one of three road favorites this week. If you want to parlay that, I would also take the under. The over/under has been on the rise and is currently sitting at 47. Pitt has not been in a game yet this season that has racked up that many points. The Lions, when they have faced a solid run and pass D, have floundered. If you add up average pts scored and average pts allowed for both teams, they do not reach this week’s current over/under on this game, 47 points.


I like Seattle as they are home to the visiting Texans. For Seattle, Jeremy Lane, who missed the last two games, is practicing again and barring setbacks, should be ready to go. On the Houston, side, they have some major injuries, with three defensive players not practicing so far this week, and one offensive lineman. As mentioned earlier, Seattle is just starting to turn it on. I like Seattle, and the over, which is crawling up and hovers around 45.5 currently.


Finally, I like Buffalo, as the Raiders have to fly all the way across the country for an early game. The Raiders D can certainly be taken advantage of. Not only that, we are seeing a Buffalo offense continue to rise each week. McCoy is one of the most heavily involved backs in the game, and how about Deonte Thompson, a great GPP play this week. He could really work in nicely to this receiving core that needs a boost. Plus, you always have the Tyrod factor against an ugly Raiders D. Buffalo is actually favored by just less than 3 points now, which is where they opened.


So I am putting it out there this week


SEA (-6) and under – 45.5


PIT (-3) and the under 47


BUF (-2.5)




PyromaniacMo with a Founder's


By: PyromaniacMo


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PyromaniacMo with a Founder's


By: PyromaniacMo


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