Week 20
January 20, 2018
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Tom Brady

New England Patriots

Tom Still Terrific?


Tom Brady was first listed on the team's injury report with an Achilles injury heading in to Week 11.
Weeks 1-10: 21.2 fantasy points per game, 110.9 passer rating
Weeks 11-17: 14.2 fantasy points per game, 87.3 passer rating

Fantasy Goo: This should line up for a good week for Brady, Tennessee is 8th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, but just below average against QB’s. The Patriots are 13 point favorites on Saturday Night, if Brady doesn’t do it at home in prime-time then something is wrong.


01/09/18, 07:30 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alvin Kamara

New Orleans Saints

Primary Role Shifting


Saints have run 5 times at/inside opponent's 5-yard line over last 4 weeks (including playoffs):
Alvin Kamara 3 carries, Zach Line 1, Mark Ingram 1. Kamara was in on all 3 Saints run plays at/inside 5 vs. Panthers last week, including Line's 1-yard TD run.

Fantasy Goo: If you’re trying to decide between Kamara and Ingram for the playoff run, Kamara looks to be the much better play.


01/09/18, 07:20 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jay Ajayi

Philadelphia Eagles

It's A Trap


Jay Ajayi (knee) is practicing in full for the Divisional Round.

Fantasy Goo: Atlanta is 5th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s this year and they are more susceptible to pass-catching backs. Todd Gurley rushed 14 times for 101 yards in the Rams' Wild Card loss to the Falcons, adding four receptions for 10 additional yards. Ajayi might have been drafted before Gurley this year, but that was clearly a mistake. Ajayi has talent, but he’s far from a good option this week.


01/09/18, 07:16 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Chris Hogan

New England Patriots

Back in Action


Chris Hogan (shoulder) is expected to return for Saturday's Divisional Round game against the Titans.

Fantasy Goo: He’s going to take a couple of weeks to get in tune with the offense, I’m looking to save him until the Super Bowl if you’re in one of those one and done fantasy playoff tournaments.


01/09/18, 07:14 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Drew Brees

New Orleans Saints

Strength vs Strength


Saints RBs led NFL during regular season in receptions (9.0) and receiving yards (77.8) per game.
Vikings held opposing RBs to fewest yards per target (4.2) and 3rd-fewest yards per game (30.6).

Fantasy Goo: The Vikings have been absolutely sick in all aspects on defense this year. If the Saints are going to pull this one out it sounds like it’s going to have to be a Brees week, I’m not so sure he’s going to be the guy you want to start on the road this week.


01/09/18, 07:12 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


LeSean McCoy

Buffalo Bills

Not The Real McCoy


LeSean McCoy said if he plays Sunday, "I want to be able to cut well enough to where I don't have a lot of pain cutting. I just want to be close, or the best as far as 100 percent as I can get. The type of game like this, you got to lay it all on the line.”

Fantasy Goo: McCoy is a poor play against the Jags this week. The Jags strength on defense is against the pass (#1 in FP allowed), but they are still strong against the rush (11th). I’m not taking any Bills on fantasy playoff squads or in DFS this week.


01/04/18, 09:29 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Derrick Henry

Tennessee Titans

Arrow Pointing Down


DeMarco Murray (knee) didn't practice again Thursday. Derrick Henry show ready to go.

Fantasy Goo: The way to attack KC is through the air, they rank 9th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s. They will most likely be in negative game script. KC hasn’t allowed any team to score over 20 points in Arrowhead all year.


01/04/18, 09:27 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Julio Jones

Atlanta Falcons

No Fly Zone


Julio Jones finished 11th in NFL in red-zone targets but caught only 5 of 19. He finished 4th in targets inside 10 but only caught 4 of 11.

Fantasy Goo: The Rams have a strong pass defense, especially against outside receivers, but are second worst in fantasy points allowed to RB’s. Freeman and Coleman are the only Falcons I am considering this week.


01/04/18, 09:25 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Kenny Golladay

Detroit Lions

Under the Radar


In the first game with TJ Jones (shoulder) on IR last week, Kenny Golladay played 95% of snaps and led DET WRs with 8 targets.

Fantasy Goo: Marvin Jones has a history of shredding the Packers defense and is a solid play at $6500 on DK, but Golladay is half the price ($3300) and will probably see a similar number of targets. If Detroit had something to play for I’d be stacking the heck out of this game, but I still think it’s smart to have one of these guys in the line-up this week.


12/31/17, 09:46 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Patrick Mahomes

Kansas City Chiefs

Rookie Debut


Patrick Mahomes was 2nd in PFF’s QB Rating when kept clean in preseason. He rushed for 744 yards, 22 TDs in his last two years at Texas Tech. Denver has allowed multiple passing TDs to six-straight QBs not named Petty or Brissett.

Fantasy Goo: The rookie was supposed to take over for Alex Smith much earlier this season, but Smith and the Chief’s came out firing on all cylinders and kept the rookie on the bench. Mahomes will get his chance this week as Smith gets a week off before the playoffs. Denver may be packing it in, but they still have one of the best defenses and I expect they will play more inspired this week against a division rival.


12/31/17, 09:32 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Wayne Gallman

New York Giants

Last Man Standing


Giants will be without Shepard (neck), Engram (ribs), and King (concussion) vs. WAS. Wayne Gallman has 9, 7, 8 target counts in last three weeks.

Fantasy Goo: Washington ranks 24th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s and Gallman is $4200 on DK. Feels like a great way to save and pay up at other positions.


12/31/17, 09:21 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alex Collins

Baltimore Ravens

Burfict Situation


Bengals LB Vontaze Burfict ruled out for game Sunday at Baltimore because of shoulder injury.

Fantasy Goo: Collins becomes a solid RB1 this week. Cincinnati’s run defense is a sieve with Burfict out.


12/31/17, 09:19 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Akeem Hunt

Houston Texans

Akeem No Dream


Charcandrick West is out Sunday vs Denver with an illness. Akeem Hunt and Kareem Hunt only RBs on active roster for KC. It would be a surprise to see Kareem play much. That means a ton of Akeem Hunt and likely some De'Anthony Thomas on passing downs.

Fantasy Goo: Akeem is min price ($3000) on DK so the definition of a free-square, but there’s a reason he’s bounced around the NFL and never earned a starting role. Denver is 5th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, I’m not rostering Akeem when there are so many other options this week.


12/31/17, 09:17 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


DeAndre Hopkins

Houston Texans

Milestone Not Worth The Risk


Bill O'Brien on DeAndre Hopkins' status: 'Probably won't know up until game time'. Typically, we might classify this as coach-speak, but Hopkins has never missed a game, and is four catches away from 100 for the season. He's probably pushing hard to play.

Fantasy Goo: This is an awesome match-up for the Houston WR’s going against a very weak Indy pass defense, but there is really no reason for Hopkins to play, especially with the calf injury. At $8400 on DK he’s just way too pricey given this news. A sneaky start might be Will Fuller at $4300, he has 5 targets in each of the past three games and is coming off some difficult match-ups. Earlier in the season he was a superstar with Watson throwing the ball, but he has always had the big play in his arsenal no matter who the QB is.


12/29/17, 10:03 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Dion Lewis

New England Patriots

Vultures Are Always Flying


James White (ankle) remained limited at Thursday's practice. White was absent for last week's win over Buffalo but should be out there against the Jets in Week 17. He ranks eighth among running backs with 56 catches this year.

Fantasy Goo: Lewis dominated last week with White and Burkhead out, even though Gillislee vultured a TD. I would imagine that White playing will take away the five receptions Lewis had last week and the Jets actually have a better rush defense than the Pats week 16 opponent (Buf). The Pats will be looking to lock-up home field advantage and won’t be resting their starters, but they will probably be looking to get everyone some work as they prep for the playoffs. Gillislee appears to be nursing a hammy and is not expected to play, but let’s not forget how White performed last year in the Super Bowl.


12/29/17, 09:47 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

Pittsburgh Steelers

Stars Sitting


The Steelers Marcus Gilbert tells reporter Tim Benz that the Steelers won't play Ben Roethlisberger or Le'Veon Bell in finale vs. Cleveland. Landry Jones will be under center for Pittsburgh and Fitzgerald Toussaint and Stevan Ridley will form a thoroughly underwhelming RB committee against the Browns.

Fantasy Goo: Underwhelming is an understatement for these two backs, a highly respected fantasy website hasn’t even updated the news on these two since the pre-season and doesn’t even recognize them as being on the team. The one player of note in this is Martavis Bryant, The Alien averages over 17 ppr points per game with Landry at the helm as opposed to 8.4 ppg with other QB’s. He also has 5 TD’s in 5 home games with Landry. Granted most of this production comes from 2015 when they worked together often in the preseason, but Bryant could be a very sneaky GPP play this week.


12/29/17, 09:23 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Jacksonville Jaguars

Play To Win The Game


Despite already being locked into the AFC's No. 3 seed, Jaguars coach Doug Marrone has no plans to rest starters in Sunday's game against the Titans. "Make no mistake about it, just so there is not a lot of talk during the week: When the players come in (Wednesday), we are talking about how we are going to play to win and do everything we possibly can to win this game, period," Marrone said. "I am not even thinking about what happens beyond that, and that is the way we are going to go about our business this week."

Fantasy Goo: I think it’s crazy of him to do, but I’m sure he has Tom Coughlin in his ear feeding him that old-school philosophy. Looks like Bortles, Fournette, Westbrook and Cole will be safe plays against a Titan’s team hoping to hold on to the sixth seed in the AFC.


12/26/17, 10:00 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

Los Angeles Rams

Resting Starters


McVay hints that there will be Rams starters “who won’t play at all” on Sunday. The Rams are already locked into either the No. 3 or 4 seed in the NFC and will host a Wild Card round playoff game.

Fantasy Goo: Gurley, Goff, Woods, all sitting this week? That’s going to destroy so many hopes and dreams for teams that rode Gurley all year.


12/26/17, 09:58 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


DeMarco Murray

Tennessee Titans

Grind It Out


Mike Mularkey said he's not ruling DeMarco Murray out just yet. He's day-to-day. The Titans are holding out hope to have him in limited role.

Fantasy Goo: They are really grinding him into the dirt if they play him this week. I didn’t see the injury, but it sounded pretty ugly from sources in the know. Keep away from him in whatever format you are playing this week, I’m giving Derick Henry a solid upgrade as the Titans are trying to hold on to the final playoff spot in the AFC.


12/26/17, 05:17 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Philadelphia Eagles

All Locked Up


Pederson on playing Foles vs. Cowboys: “I’ve got to get him as many reps as he can and then be smart about it. Obviously, we have a lot of football left. Our season is really just beginning, quite honestly. We’ll be smart.”

Fantasy Goo: This is why you don’t play a championship game in week 17. I’m staying away from the Eagles regular starters, pretty much across the board, as they have a first round bye all locked up. Guys like Blount, Clement, and Nelson Agholor might have some DFS appeal, but we have to get closer to Sunday to see what they plan on doing.


12/26/17, 05:15 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Vegas landscape for week eight - vegas implied point total

Vegas Vantage Point for Week 8

Posted by PyromaniacMo on 10/27/17

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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This weekly piece is intended to shed light on two primary factors that can weigh heavily upon your fantasy football decision making. Basically, we want to use Vegas in a helpful, predictive way. The first advantage to be gained exposes teams that are likely to be amongst the highest scoring of the week. Obviously, the more touchdowns a team puts up, the more fantasy points those players will have. For this, we will look at implied team totals.

 

So, now that we have identified the hottest teams of the week, we want to prognosticate even further and decide which positions, on those teams, will get the most opportunity to score. Does Vegas tell us a high scoring team will likely be playing with a lead? If this is the case, then such a positive game-script indicates more rushing attempts. Thus, we want RBs on those teams. If Vegas expects a higher scoring team to be on the losing end of a shoot-out, that is to play from behind, this tells us to expect more of a passing attack.

 

That’s it. In essence, we are looking for high implied team totals and an indication as to which positions will likely get the most opportunity to score those points.

 

 

Week 8 Vegas Implied Point Total and Details

 

 

The highest implied team total for Week 8 is none other than the Eagles. Vegas has them scoring nearly 30 points. They are facing the visiting 49ers, who are the fastest paced team in the league, and simultaneously the least efficient. Essentially that means that Philly should expect a significant increase in the amount of offensive snaps. That means opportunity, opportunity, opportunity. Although it is a positive game script, let’s spend a minute looking at the Eagles’ air attack. Wentz is on fire and will quite possibly be tossing it towards three of the worst cornerbacks in the league. According to PFF, Nelson Agholor has the most advantageous matchup for any starting WR this week. Alshon Jeffery is not far behind. Jeffery has faced some real shut down corners lately. Because of this, the impression is given that the team is not looking to him, or somehow he is not performing. Such is not the case, he is actually 3rd in air yards. I love both Eagles WRs in DFS this week. Heck, I am sprinkling in some Wentz as well. Only the Patriots are giving up more fantasy goo to opposing gunslingers than the 49ers. Plus, how can you not love the ground game. As stated, this should be a positive game script as Philly also opened with the highest spread, 11.5. San Fran has allowed the most carries of 5 yards or more. If indeed the spread is accurate, you can easily see the Eagles relying on the ground attack to chew up the clock. Thus, I also like Blount and I am not alone. PFF grades all the positions. As far as rushing grades for NFL running backs, Blount is graded as the 12th best. Especially in Fan Duel, Blount is a nice play.

 

The next highest implied point total goes to the Saints, who are home to Chicago. New Orleans is expected to rack up 4 TDs and win by more than a score. So, not only do I want Saints players, especially at home, but I want their RBs especially. Currently, a debate rages concerning the best Saints back to roll in DFS. Even on full point PPR, I still like Ingram. In the last 3 weeks, Ingram has racked up 57 looks to 30 for Kamara. So, Ingram is playing in a friendly home environment, has been getting nearly 2-1 looks in the last three games, and the team is expected to score 4 TDs, and win by more than a full touchdown. You know how Fox likes to run the ball. Well, the Saints could very easily get out to an early lead and just take the air out of the ball, something Fox does by second nature seemingly. This is perhaps the most likely of outcomes, and that is exactly the name of the game here; we are trying to narrow down a few games and look to the most likely outcomes and thus indentifying game scripts and teams that will have plenty of opportunity to score. This week, the Saints are right up there.

 

Of course, Vegas loves the Patriots. There is plenty of talk that New England’s D found its stride. Really? There was a Stephen King like fog that settled on the stadium last week, and Matt Ryan just down right had a bad game. I can see this one getting into a shootout. Now, the Chargers are a funnel D. Football Outsiders have them as a top 10 pass D, but only ranked 27th versus the rush. Now with New England, that could be one of four backs, but if I load up one, Dion Lewis looks great again, and Wild Bill has been relying on him more and more. On the other side of the ball, I think Rivers can certainly have a game, after all, the Pats are still allowing the most fantasy points to opposing gunslingers. I love a GPP stack with Rivers and K. Allen. Mr. Allen will draw the most coverage from Eric Rowe. PFF has 110 grades for CBs in coverage. Well, Rowe ranks 109, so, the optimists can say he is not THE worst CB graded. So he’s got that going for him.

 

Last week, we say Amari Cooper loyalists get paid off. Well, I believe the positive TD regression will continue for Julio as well. He got his first score last week, in what ended up being a terrible game for Matty Ice. Despite the team’s woes, Julio still has 3 games over 90 yards. He faces the Jets who just gave up 3 TDs last week to WRs alone.  Atlanta does have the 4th highest implied total of the week, as they are expected to put up 27 points. They are on the road. Despite that, and considering their performance last week, Vegas still picks them as the favorite. Road favorites have been paying off lately in DFS. That basically means if the game was in Atlanta, then Vegas would expect the team to win by double-digits. Freeman is always a solid play, especially in Draft Kings where he is getting rewarded for receptions. A back like that rises to the occasion regardless of game-script.

 

The following reflects current Vegas numbers, not opening.

 

Now, I have done exceptionally well in straight betting this year. So last week I tossed out my favorite pick, taking Jacksonville ATS, or Against the Spread. Well, they dominated last week, so let us see if that trend can’t keep going. As much as I hate bets involving my beloved Lions, in the last two games, both Bell and Brown have been the games leading rusher and receiver. Big Ben, only has 1 INT in that time and 3 TDs. Golden Tate is banged up and the Steelers have arguably one of the best pass defenses in the league. Pit is just one of three road favorites this week. If you want to parlay that, I would also take the under. The over/under has been on the rise and is currently sitting at 47. Pitt has not been in a game yet this season that has racked up that many points. The Lions, when they have faced a solid run and pass D, have floundered. If you add up average pts scored and average pts allowed for both teams, they do not reach this week’s current over/under on this game, 47 points.

 

I like Seattle as they are home to the visiting Texans. For Seattle, Jeremy Lane, who missed the last two games, is practicing again and barring setbacks, should be ready to go. On the Houston, side, they have some major injuries, with three defensive players not practicing so far this week, and one offensive lineman. As mentioned earlier, Seattle is just starting to turn it on. I like Seattle, and the over, which is crawling up and hovers around 45.5 currently.

 

Finally, I like Buffalo, as the Raiders have to fly all the way across the country for an early game. The Raiders D can certainly be taken advantage of. Not only that, we are seeing a Buffalo offense continue to rise each week. McCoy is one of the most heavily involved backs in the game, and how about Deonte Thompson, a great GPP play this week. He could really work in nicely to this receiving core that needs a boost. Plus, you always have the Tyrod factor against an ugly Raiders D. Buffalo is actually favored by just less than 3 points now, which is where they opened.

 

So I am putting it out there this week

 

SEA (-6) and under – 45.5

 

PIT (-3) and the under 47

 

BUF (-2.5)


 

 

 

PyromaniacMo with a Founder's

 

By: PyromaniacMo

 

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PyromaniacMo with a Founder's

 

By: PyromaniacMo

 

Subscribe to the Pyro Podcast: http://iTunes.com/Podcasts/PyroPodcast

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