Week 7
October 21, 2018
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Anthony staggs

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RT @AdamSchefter: Jaguars benched Blake Bortles for Cody Kessler.


07:11 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Pyromaniac.com

@pyroman1ac


RT @RumfordJohnny: Jarvis Landry seems like the easiest fade this week. He’s the Julio of slot WRs.


07:11 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Pk ripper 🤜💥🤛

@amaze652


Good news for the #Bills nobody retired at the half this week....


06:48 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Mo

@pyromaniacmo


What DOES Blount have over Patricia, the Lion’s coach? K Johnson busts a 71 yard run. Two plays later,Blount can no… https://t.co/zFhhV1tS63


05:48 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Pyromaniac.com

@pyroman1ac


Why are folks still surprised by all the missed-extra points this season... they moved it back 13 yards in 2015. No… https://t.co/Su9bdXvfOG


05:46 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Waz

@WazNFL


@ScottFish24 I agree, but that's an odd way to type Tyreek Hill.


05:19 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Wheeler

@FF_Wheeler


RT @Cole_Kev: QB runs inside the two are the highest success rate play. You run a sneak or draw with Mariota, especially with the… https://t.co/6qXmjQI4RZ


05:06 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Pk ripper 🤜💥🤛

@amaze652


RT @csdfantasy: This week's Head-2-Head players are Taylor Gabriel and Albert Wilson #FantasyFootball #NFL https://t.co/yAaWOY2WbG https://t.co/A2krNIzJ8N


04:52 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Pk ripper 🤜💥🤛

@amaze652


RT @evansilva: Uh oh. https://t.co/1I02IozH0w


04:52 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Pk ripper 🤜💥🤛

@amaze652


RT @AdamSchefter: Jacksonville's newly-acquired RB Carlos Hyde is inactive today vs. Houston.


04:52 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Pk ripper 🤜💥🤛

@amaze652


RT @nyjets: Straight fire. #ColorRush #MINvsNYJ https://t.co/DW7F7qslYq


04:52 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Wheeler

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RT @pyroman1ac: Week 7 Pyro Player Rankings by @PyroStag & @FF_Wheeler QBs: https://t.co/58wL7Y0hWZ RBs: https://t.co/r2jGtDe8hC… https://t.co/Ry7ORyIfDC


04:48 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Mo

@pyromaniacmo


RT @SkullKingRyan: Check out the larest podcast where Ryan and Justin take you through about half of this weekend's games to see who y… https://t.co/NDK7JVwKg6


04:44 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Mo

@pyromaniacmo


Anzah is inactive for the Lions D. But I could see the Lions getting up in this game forcing Mia to throw. If so, D… https://t.co/o5shvi3PLl


04:43 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Anthony staggs

@PyroStag


RT @CTowersCBS: I think Melvin Gordon’s job is safe, you guys.


04:29 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Anthony staggs

@PyroStag


That was a bad call there.... C'mon man.


04:27 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Anthony staggs

@PyroStag


RT @pyroman1ac: Week 7 Pyro Player Rankings by @PyroStag & @FF_Wheeler QBs: https://t.co/58wL7Y0hWZ RBs: https://t.co/r2jGtDe8hC… https://t.co/Ry7ORyIfDC


04:23 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Pyromaniac.com

@pyroman1ac


Week 7 Pyro Player Rankings by @PyroStag & @FF_Wheeler QBs: https://t.co/58wL7Y0hWZ RBs: https://t.co/r2jGtDe8hC… https://t.co/Ry7ORyIfDC


04:22 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Wheeler

@FF_Wheeler


@adog235 Chubb


04:21 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Wheeler

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@duke5021 we'll know more after this week, I think Chubb is the starter, but Duke could carve a significant role


04:21 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Waz

@WazNFL


@Adamtz I get so anxious with it, especially when I'm rooting for the team on defense.


04:19 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Wheeler

@FF_Wheeler


@Idr__ nah


04:19 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Waz

@WazNFL


@RobertIrvin210 Coin-flip worthy. I'd lean Rudolph.


04:18 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Anthony staggs

@PyroStag


RT @MitchellRenz365: Raiders Trading Amari Cooper? - How does this impact #FantasyFootball? - Are the Cowboys a real option? - Is Amari… https://t.co/Z8Ep147xRu


04:14 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Waz

@WazNFL


The "let's pretend to go for it on 4th down" plays have really annoyed me lately. I can't recall the last time I saw it work.


03:26 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Mo

@pyromaniacmo


Jags have only 1 TE available on Draft Kings - Grinnage. O'Shaughnessy, ASJ, Niles Paul, and Goolsby all are out. Grinnage just 2.5K


02:36 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Mo

@pyromaniacmo


So used to watching the quick action on the Red Zone channel. There is something to be said for watching the whole… https://t.co/J7mPSIteNH


01:44 PM, Oct 21, 2018

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Pyromaniac.com

@pyroman1ac


Love watching Purdue spank Ohio State...


03:02 AM, Oct 21, 2018

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Pyromaniac.com

@pyroman1ac


RT @Rodcox84: Y’all ! This might be the funniest thing I have ever saw in my life https://t.co/nZQgsPgK5E


01:51 AM, Oct 21, 2018

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Waz

@WazNFL


@andybehrens When did Brad do that?


02:01 AM, Oct 18, 2018

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Brad holmes

@bradholmes17


RT @pyromaniacmo: Of course. Another @pyroman1ac man, @FF_Wheeler The most accurate #FantasyFootball ranker so far this season! Well… https://t.co/49y6HFnfoV


02:13 PM, Oct 06, 2018

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Brad holmes

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@pyroman1ac https://t.co/ZiHjlwIXio


03:36 PM, Oct 05, 2018

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Brad holmes

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RT @evansilva: #Bengals Pass Catchers Update: Tyler Eifert -- Out for year John Ross -- Groin, questionable at best A.J. Green --… https://t.co/LINlheNiFW


04:19 PM, Oct 04, 2018

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Brad holmes

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@pyroman1ac https://t.co/XRG0konwbt


02:42 PM, Oct 03, 2018

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Brad holmes

@bradholmes17


RT @RotoViz: Dumpster Dives: Deep Waiver Pickups for Week 5 - by @DumpsterDiveFF #FantasyFootball https://t.co/i5xGgc7z40 https://t.co/F6XQEhLn7l


12:42 AM, Oct 03, 2018

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Vegas landscape for week nine - vegas implied point total

Vegas Vantage Point for Week 9

Posted by PyromaniacMo on 11/03/17

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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This weekly piece is intended to shed light on two primary factors that can weigh heavily upon your fantasy football decision making. Basically, we want to use Vegas in a helpful, predictive way. The first advantage to be gained exposes teams that are likely to be amongst the highest scoring of the week. Obviously, the more touchdowns a team puts up, the more fantasy points those players will have. For this, we will look at implied team totals.

So, now that we have identified the hottest teams of the week, we want to prognosticate even further and decide which positions, on those teams, will get the most opportunity to score. Does Vegas tell us a high scoring team will likely be playing with a lead? If this is the case, then such a positive game-script indicates more rushing attempts. Thus, we want RBs on those teams. If Vegas expects a higher scoring team to be on the losing end of a shoot-out, in other words to play from behind, well this tells us to expect more of a passing attack.

That’s it. In essence, we are looking for high implied team totals and an indication as to which positions will likely get the most opportunity to score those points.

 

 

Week 9 Vegas Implied Point Totals Chart


 

Considering the hot mess that exists with Houston’s QB situation, a likely outcome would be to turn to the ground game. Even with the drastic line movement after the Watson injury news, Houston is still expected to win by nearly a TD. So, we have two indicators pointing to Lamar Miller. This season, his floor is 15 looks with his ceiling in the mid 20s. In the last 5 weeks, he is a top 10 PPR back. He will face the Colts, who according to Football Outsiders weighted defensive metric, ranks 29th in the league against the run. The Colts have allowed 8 different backs to rack up double-digit PPR days against them this season. With Tom Savage now under center, the Texans should rely heavily on Miller. Even when Savage drops back to pass, he might look to dump it off to Miller on more than just a few occasions, as younger, untested QBs are want to do. On the other side of the ball, the Colts are still likely to be down for most of the game. TY Hilton carries an incredibly attractive price on Draft Kings at just $4,900. If indeed this game script follows suit, Hilton should be in for a bevy of targets. Plus, purchasing shares of Hilton will allow you to fit in some of the more expensive players.

 

The highest opening implied total goes to New Orleans, tossing out Houston of course. The Saints are at home and expected to score 4 TDs. Drew Brees is currently 5th in Red Zone passing attempts. In fact, out of the top 10 RZ passers, he has the highest Red Zone completion percentage. Football Outsiders ranks Tampa Bay 30th for passing defense. Their CBs are worse for wear. Brent Grimes is listed as questionable and could not practice on Wednesday or Thursday. Vernon Hargreaves allows just over a full fantasy point for every 3 routes run. That leaves McClain who ranks 107 out of 115 graded starting CBs from PFF. Both Michael Thomas and Ted Ginn have great matchups. I could see starting both in GPP. Plus, this season, we have seen the Saints rely more heavily on the ground game. Alvin Kamara can break a big play nearly any time, he is in consideration in PPR formats. Of course, one of my favorite DFS plays the last 3 weeks is Ingram. In that span, since AP packed his bags and headed to where the chilly winds won’t blow, Ingram is fantasy’s best back in PPR and Kamara comes in at  #9.  In just 3 weeks, Ingram has 81 looks with 41 for Kamara. Certainly you have plenty of stacking options, and owning Brees potentially give you exposure to all the TDs.

Now, before we go to the next matchup and discuss a popular but expensive TE, let’s talk about ways of getting those upper echelon, high priced players. One way to fit such guys in, besides throwing a few cheap darts at other roster spots, is stacking up a QB on a team expected to do some scoring with a lower priced starting WR. For example, Brees and Coleman. Sure I like Thomas and Ginn more, but with the highest implied total of the week, Coleman has a decent chance to get a score. Stack him with his QB and now you are doubling up and able to spend up at other positions, such as the next TE to talk about.

 

 

Philly is home to Denver. The Eagles implied total is just north of 25 points and should have positive game script. Now, Denver is solid almost all the way around on D, except against TEs. In the last 3 weeks, only 2 teams have allowed more fantasy goo to opposing TEs. So, we have a home game, a high implied total, a team favored to win, playing against  a defense vulnerable to opposing TEs. Let’s hear it for Ertz. Of course he is a pretty penny on DFS sites, but as previously mentioned, you can fit him if you balance your budget right. You could even think about running two TEs considering Ertz costs and performs much like a WR.

 

The final team that really stands out when looking at Vegas is the Seattle Seahawks. Every year they seem to heat up towards the second half of the season. Seattle is home to Washington and is expected to win by 6 points. Not only that, they have a high implied total as well, it opened at 25.5. In the last 5 weeks, there have only been 4 teams that have allowed an average of at least 20 FF Pts to opposing gunslingers. Yes indeed, the Redskins make the list. In that same span of time, Russell Wilson is averaging the 2nd highest fantasy points per game, just behind Watson. (Oh what could have been!) Wilson has gone over 25 FF Pts on 4 of his last 5 performances. This season, Alex Smith and Wentz were both able to put up more than 25 points against Washington. The question is always who to pair him with. Personally, I might not stack him with anyone. Seattle has too many weapons that could go off and it can be a bit of a crapshoot.  I will point out, Washington has allowed the 7th most PPR FF Pts per game to TEs in the last 5 weeks. Still, I like rolling Wilson out there by himself. He is 2nd only to Brady for Red Zone attempts.

 

So, since Week 7, I started tossing out a few picks against the spread. In that time, I am 2 for 2 on my single bets against the spread and 1 for 2 on my 2 team parlay bets against the spread. So, here are my picks for week 9:

 

Single Game Bets

KC (-2.5)

LAR (-3.5)

OAK (-3)

 

Parlay

SF (+2.5) OVER 39.5

 


 

 

PyromaniacMo with a Founder's

 

By: PyromaniacMo

 

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PyromaniacMo with a Founder's

 

By: PyromaniacMo

 

Subscribe to the Pyro Podcast: http://iTunes.com/Podcasts/PyroPodcast

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