June 21, 2018


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Tyreek Hill

Kansas City Chiefs

Hill lookin' busty with chiefs new look.

Tyreek Hill had a great 2017, amounting 75 receptions for 1183 yards and 7 touchdowns in 15 games. He’s currently being drafted in the middle of the third round in standard leagues, which would appear to be a great value. However, with promoted RB coach Eric Bieniemy presumably in-line to be the primary play caller, a new QB, Travis Kelce receiving the #1 target share and the addition of Sammy Watkins, I expect Hill’s numbers to decrease dramatically.
I believe Hill to be more of a boom or bust player this year. There’s no denying his break-away speed and ability to separate from defenders, and with Mahomes cannon of an arm, I expect them to connect deep on occasion. However, I believe Sammy Watkins to be the more complete receiver and likely to take more of the target share from Hill. Bundled with the change in offensive strategy toward the end of last year to run the ball more, the change to a young QB presumably resulting in a more conservative game plan, I see a major decline in the amount of touches Hill will get and see him as more of a 5-6 round flex play guy.

06/21/18, 10:54 AM CDT by C-wags


Eric Ebron

Detroit Lions

Ebron Could Use Some Luck

Colts signed TE Eric Ebron, formerly of the Lions, to a two-year contract. Coach Frank Reich called Ebron an "elite tight end."

The last time we saw Andrew Luck healthy (2016), the Colts used 2+ TE sets at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL and had the 6th-highest target share to TEs.

04/01/18, 11:32 AM CDT by Wheeler


Carlos Hyde

San Francisco 49ers

Hyde and Seek

Browns agreed to terms with RB Carlos Hyde, formerly of the 49ers, on a three-year, $15 million contract.

Obtaining Hyde has several trickle-down effects; first it replaces Crowell who signed with the Jets, it probably diminishes Duke Johnson’s value a bit. Hyde is a better all-around back than Crowell was and will certainly take over the goal-line work seeing that he’s got 20+ pounds on Duke. It also reduces the likelihood that Cleveland takes Saquon Barkley with the 4th pick in the draft. They will most likely look to draft a defensive player (Chubb) or trade down again.

04/01/18, 11:28 AM CDT by Wheeler


Jerick McKinnon

Minnesota Vikings

McKinnon Goes West For Gold-Rush

49ers agreed to terms with RB Jerick McKinnon, formerly of the Vikings, on a four-year, $30 million contract.

McKinnon averaged a ho-hum 3.8 yards a carry for the Vikings and scored three rushing touchdowns. By contrast, San Francisco's former lead runner, Carlos Hyde, averaged 3.9 yards an attempt in 2017 and had eight rushing touchdowns.

It appears as though Shanahan is enamored with McKinnon's athletic metrics, but I'm not so sure he was "pounding the table" to get him. This move could push the Niner's to cut Joe Williams.

04/01/18, 11:12 AM CDT by Wheeler


Mike Wallace

Baltimore Ravens

Eagles Keep Improving

Eagles signed WR Mike Wallace to a one-year contract.
Mike Wallace can still move posting a top five max speed among wide receivers last season. He will fill the void left by Torrey Smith as a speed vertical threat.

04/01/18, 11:08 AM CDT by Wheeler


Terrelle Pryor

Washington Redskins

Jets Searching For Weapons

Jets agreed to terms with WR Terrelle Pryor, formerly of Washington and Cleveland.

Second year in a row on a new team doesn’t really help Pryor's cause, but I like the idea of him on the field with Teddy Bridgewater at some point. I would imagine, with some creativity, the Jets could really design some innovative gadget plays.
The Jets receiving corps really looks like a bunch of question marks at this point though, no telling what the week-to-week outcome will be with these guys.
Jermaine Kearse: 65 catches, 810 yards, 5 touchdowns (2017)
Robby Anderson: 63 catches, 941 yards, 7 touchdowns (2017)
Quincy Enunwa: 58 catches, 857 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)
Terrelle Pryor: 77 catches, 1007 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)

04/01/18, 11:04 AM CDT by Wheeler


Carlos Henderson

Denver Broncos

Sleeper Watch

Broncos coach Vance Joseph said the team is "counting on" Carlos Henderson making an impact in 2018.

If you are paying attention to Staggs projections there is plenty of opportunity for Henderson to step into a solid number of targets in the slot. Henderson was hindered by injury and awful QB play last year. Being drafted in the 18th round or later in best-ball leagues, Henderson is the late round flyer that should be on your radar.

04/01/18, 11:00 AM CDT by Wheeler


Ben Watson

Baltimore Ravens

Watson Returns To Big Easy

Saints signed TE Ben Watson, formerly of the Ravens, to a one-year contract.

Watson had 74 catches on 110 targets for 825 yards and 6 TD’s when he was with the Saints in 2015. After missing 2016 he had a pretty good year with Baltimore last year despite an anemic offense, with 61 catches on 79 targets for 522 yards and 4 TD’s. He’s not a bad late round flyer TE. He’s basically free right now, but I expect by the time the season starts he’ll be being drafted within the top 20 at the position.

04/01/18, 10:54 AM CDT by Wheeler


Jeff Janis

Green Bay Packers

Janis Truthers Challenged

Browns officially signed former Packers’ WR Jeff Janis.
The combine superstar never amounted to anything in Green Bay, I highly doubt Cleveland is the place for him to finally break-out.

04/01/18, 10:50 AM CDT by Wheeler


Thomas Rawls

Seattle Seahawks

Jets Sign Rawls

Rawls had five RB1 games in 2015, one in 2016, and has been a disappointment since. He’s not worth your time in fantasy, but he could cause enough disruption in the Jets backfield to cut any upside we might have hoped for from Isaiah Crowell.

04/01/18, 10:48 AM CDT by Wheeler


Allen Robinson

Jacksonville Jaguars

Coo coo ca choo Mr. Robinson

Bears signed WR Allen Robinson, formerly of the Jaguars, to a three-year, $42 million contract.

This is a great move for Robinson and Chicago. Nagy’s offense and the young QB, Trubiski, should benefit Robinson at least as much as Bortles did, and Chicago gets the top WR in free agency.
Everyone on the team will be in a new scheme so there will be an adjustment, but as they start to gel we should see a big second half. Robinson’s recovery from a torn ACL doesn’t scare me away from drafting him in the late third/early fourth, his current MFL10 ADP is 43 overall while his Draft app ADP is 59.9. I expect Robinson to be somewhere in the range of 75 receptions, for 1100 yards and 8 TD’s.

03/24/18, 08:25 PM CDT by Wheeler


Sammy Watkins

Los Angeles Rams

KC Building Strong Air Attack

Chiefs signed Sammy Watkins, formerly of the Rams, to a three-year, $48 million contract.

I’m a big Sammy truther so getting him in the 5th or 6th round is a pure power move. His current Draft app ADP of 87.1 is an absolute steal, his MFL10 ADP of 69.5 is still a great value in my opinion. There are quite a few options for high targets in KC so I don’t expect him to see the 128 targets he saw his rookie year, but he should definitely see more than the 70 he saw last year. He’ll have an entire offseason to work with the near-rookie QB, and at age 25 he should have enough burst left to have a 70 catch, 1050 yd, 8TD line. For his career he has 16 receptions on 30 targets for 12 TD’s in the Red Zone, and 9 receptions on 13 targets, for 8 TD’s inside the opponents 10. He should be the exact WR the Chiefs need to get over the hump. As a team the Chiefs were 34/75 for 13 TD’s in the Red-Zone last year and 12/24 for 10 TD inside the 10.

03/24/18, 08:19 PM CDT by Wheeler


Kirk Cousins

Washington Redskins

Vikings Like That

Kirk Cousins plans to sign a three-year, fully-guaranteed contract from the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday. The deal is believed to be for around $86 million, and reports are it will be fully-guaranteed, a landmark for an NFL free agent.

Should be a lateral move for Kirk as far as fantasy, better WR’s, but fewer passes thrown in this offense. A healthy Dalvin Cook should be able to run out the clock if they are up in the second half of games and take the ball out of Cousins hands near the end zone. It should also help the overall efficiency of the offense so all in all it increases his floor, but cuts any garbage-time production we’ve seen with Washington. Kyle Rudolph becomes a big benefactor here, Cousins loves his TE, especially near the end-zone.

03/24/18, 08:16 PM CDT by Wheeler


Case Keenum

Minnesota Vikings

Denver Makes Case

Broncos signed QB Case Keenum, formerly of the Vikings, to a two-year, $36 million contract.

Well, I was hoping for more than a bridge QB for my favorite WR (D. Thomas), but this is a definite upgrade from the three stooges Denver put behind center last year.

03/24/18, 08:13 PM CDT by Wheeler


LeGarrette Blount

Philadelphia Eagles

Detroit Sparks Up Blount

The Lions signed free agent RB LeGarrette Blount to a 1-year deal worth $4.5M. He’s back with Matt Patricia, as the New England ties are strong.

The Lions have needed a true goal-line/power-back for years. I expect Blount to get between 150-200 touches and all the short-yardage carries. Detroit’s offense doesn’t really fit what Blount brings to the table, but I expect Patricia will have some influence over how the offense will operate from here-on-out.

03/24/18, 08:10 PM CDT by Wheeler


Cleveland Browns

Money Ball: The Sequel

Hate to start out the offseason with the Cleveland Browns, but they are makin’ moves!
Browns acquired: Tyrod Taylor, Jarvis Landry, Damarious Randall
Browns gave up: 2018 3rd-round pick (No. 65), 2018 4th-round pick, 2019 7th-round pick, DeShone Kizer

Building with experienced quality performers that have something to prove, by selling inconsequential draft picks is exactly what Sashi Brown was building up for. It’s a shame he won’t be around to reap the rewards, but these are quality moves for a win-now mentality.

03/09/18, 09:37 PM CST by Wheeler


Tyrod Taylor

Buffalo Bills

Hue Looks To TyGoat

Browns left tackle Joe Thomas, who's pondering his future, is a fan of Tyrod Taylor and has said so on the ThomaHawk Show podcast.

Tyrod is just one season removed (2016) from being the QB11 in average fantasy ppg, including seven 20+ point weeks and six 15+ point weeks. Given the current talent on the O-line and skill position weapons he could improve on those numbers. He has the potential to be this year’s Alex Smith, definitely heading my late-round (12+) QB picks now.

03/09/18, 09:32 PM CST by Wheeler


Deshone Kizer

Cleveland Browns

Packers Get In On The Fun

The Packers have traded for QB DeShone Kizer from the Browns to Green Bay.

This is the best possible scenario for Kizer, who was thrown into the fire last season. Getting the chance to develop and learn behind the best in the business is the best chance he has for longevity.

03/09/18, 09:30 PM CST by Wheeler


Torrey Smith

Philadelphia Eagles

On The Move Again

The Eagles trade WR Torrey Smith to the Panthers for CB Daryl Worley. Torrey Smith could fill the old Ted Ginn role which makes this fairly interesting. Stagg Party says it’s more of a boost for Cam than Torrey himself.

This is an absolute perfect fit, someone who isn’t going to demand the ball, but can take the top off a defense while McCaffrey, Olsen, and Cam work underneath. Torrey is looking like a great late-round flyer.

03/09/18, 09:28 PM CST by Wheeler


DeMarco Murray

Tennessee Titans

Henry Hype Train Has Clear Track

DeMarco Murray was released by the Titans.
No surprise here, expect Derick Henry to be a lead back with 250+ touches, but they will bring in someone that will play the third-down, pass-catching role out of the backfield. I wouldn’t be surprised if they sign someone like Jerick McKinnon or Rex Burkhead, or even Darren Sproles or Charles Sims. There are also plenty of options in the NFL draft, Henry won’t be a true “Bell Cow.”

03/09/18, 09:17 PM CST by Wheeler


Vegas Skyline, use the mindshare of the folks in Vegas to help you in fantasy football

Volume of Opportunity: How Vegas Can Help Influence Fantasy Football Decisions

Posted by d-Rx on 11/03/16

by   The Archer


More Articals


In fantasy football, everybody is looking for an edge. Everything is examined from the wind speed, to turf type, and even the temperature at time of kick-off.  We try to be as scientific as possible in the world of sports prediction. I am reminded of the Casino line: “Nicky’s methods of betting weren’t scientific, but they worked. When he won, he collected. When he lost, he told the bookies to go fuck themselves”. Well, few of us can make predictions like Sam Rothstein, or even swing a baseball bat like Joe Pesci. But, we all want an edge, some added insight. Well, Vegas can certainly give you that leg up in the fantasy football world. We often reference an implied team total or a spread. But perhaps you are not really sure why, or worse yet, what to do with that information. There are just a few key things to start with: the spread, the over under, and the implied team totals. The bottom line is this: Vegas can give you an advantage when making your fantasy football decisions, because it can give you an indication about the volume of opportunity.


So, let’s just start with the spread. The spread is essentially the difference between the two final scores of each team. If team A is favored by 3 points, that means team B is expected to lose by 3 points. Team A is listed as -3, and team B is listed as +3. So if you happen to be betting with the spread, before the ball is even kicked off, the score is team A = 0 and team B = 3. I start paying attention to the spread when it is say 6 points or greater. The higher the spread, the more a certain team is favored to win. Last year, there were 67 instances of a spread being 7 points or more. That is 3.94 each week, and that includes weeks 16 and 17 which saw a higher number than normal. Of the 67 instances where the spread was at least 7 points or more, there were 29 times when that spread reached double digits, or just 1.7 per week on average. So this is a way to really narrow the focus of quality fantasy plays in a given week by simply looking at how much a specific team is favored over their opponent.


To continue with this line of thinking, a high spread really suggests game script. Game script will allow you to identify the play-calling in a given game and thus, which positions will have the greatest volume of opportunity. So, let’s say Atlanta is 10 point favorites over Cleveland (sorry Browns fans). What does that tell you? How can you use that for fantasy purposes? Well, Atlanta should have a positive game script. If the game goes accordingly, Atlanta will be up, chances are fairly early. They will look to run and play D like most teams do when they have the lead. Running the ball means the clock keeps moving, and when you are up, coaches want the game to end to secure the win. So, the higher the spread, the more likely the favored team’s running backs will be used. If you add an opposing defenses performance against the rush, then you really start to have something. Guess what, this is what Billicheck does. There is this believe that surrounds him that suggests a mystery, an unpredictable quality to ‘Wild Bill’. But the fact is, if the Patriots have a positive game-script, that is to say, they are heavy favorites, AND the opposing D struggles against RBs, then it is a safe bet it will be a Blount game in that the Patriot’s ground game should get plenty of action.


In contrast, let’s just say a team is heavy underdogs. Well, then chances are, while the other team is running the ball offensively, the under dog will need to pass in order to stay in the game. So, that is referred to a s a negative game-script and chances are, the QB and the pass catchers will be decent fantasy plays. Look, the bottom line, we are chasing opportunity. If a team is heavy favorites, there will be more opportunity for the favored team to use their running backs.. If they are underdogs, there should be a greater volume of usage for the pass catchers. While TDs are hard to predict, it stands to reason if a player is given more opportunities, they will have a higher chance to score, and that is what you are doing when you use the spread to influence your fantasy decisions. You are identifying which positions will get the most usage, and thus, have a greater probability to score.


Now, let’s turn from identifying a position with the use of the spread, to determining which offenses are most likely to score TDs in a given week. Obviously, if there is an over/under above 50, that means there should be plenty of scoring opportunity. But we need to go farther than that. Here is where you want to look at implied team totals. This is tossed out quite a bit in fantasy circles. Yet, I have been asked several times where to find this. Sure there are certain sites you can pay for, or a few hidden gems that post this. But really, you just need to know the formula and do a little math.


In order to find a team’s implied team total, you divide the over/under in half, then add half the spread to the favored team and subtract half the spread from the underdogs and you have the implied team total.  For example, let us just use the previous Atlanta vs. Cleveland scenario. If the over under is 44 and the spread favors the Falcons by 10 points, then you just break the 44 in half. That leaves 22. Then you add half the spread (5 points) to Atlanta, so they have an implied team total of 27 points. On the other hand, you take half the over/under, again, 22 points and then deduct half the spread, 5 points. So, the Browns have an implied team total in this situation of 17 points.


So, traditionally, an implied team total of 24 or above is when I will start paying attention, the higher you go, the better of course. In a given week, 28 might be tops, but implied team totals of 30 are not unheard of. On the Pyro Light podcast, I will generally bring it up if it is 26 or higher.


So, back to our original scenario, Atlanta versus the Browns. At first glance, if you just look at the 50 point over/under, it could be misleading. Ideally you want the implied team total. Now, what really sticks out is the Falcons (27) and the Browns only (17). So, if we put it all together, we know Atlanta should have plenty of opportunity to score TDs, nearly 4 in fact. Plus, they are heavy favorites, so now we are cooking with gas. We believe Atlanta will score a great deal, and will likely face a positive game-script. Thus, I want ownership of Atlanta running backs in this situation. We know from the implied team total, that there should be plenty of touchdowns. We narrow it down even further by adding the predictive game-script and say that those touchdowns will most likely come from the running back positions. Again, we are chasing opportunity to score. In this situation, we identified the Atlanta running backs as having the greatest likelihood of scoring.


In conclusion, this is an imperfect science of course. We are trying to make predictions about future events with imperfect, changing information. But, to me, it boils down to the volume of opportunity. I want chances to score, I want my players touching the ball as often as possible. Ironically, there is little correlation between a QB and attempts however. But for the other fantasy relevant positions, it is a numbers game. I look for a spread of perhaps 6 and above and an implied team total of 26 or above. I am not suggestions Vegas is the end all be all. But, it is one of several stats I use heavily in determining fantasy plays in a given week, it is a tool in the tool-chest, one of many. But, Vegas is a glittering city in the desert for a reason. They know what they are doing, so if I can use that to fashion a starting line-up, by God I am going to do it. I want to use as many quality indicators as possible, so I can prevent my fantasy team from sleeping with the fishes like Luca Brasi.




Luca Brasi from the The Godfather


By: @PyromaniacMo


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