Week 20
January 20, 2018
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Tom Brady

New England Patriots

Tom Still Terrific?


Tom Brady was first listed on the team's injury report with an Achilles injury heading in to Week 11.
Weeks 1-10: 21.2 fantasy points per game, 110.9 passer rating
Weeks 11-17: 14.2 fantasy points per game, 87.3 passer rating

Fantasy Goo: This should line up for a good week for Brady, Tennessee is 8th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, but just below average against QB’s. The Patriots are 13 point favorites on Saturday Night, if Brady doesn’t do it at home in prime-time then something is wrong.


01/09/18, 07:30 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alvin Kamara

New Orleans Saints

Primary Role Shifting


Saints have run 5 times at/inside opponent's 5-yard line over last 4 weeks (including playoffs):
Alvin Kamara 3 carries, Zach Line 1, Mark Ingram 1. Kamara was in on all 3 Saints run plays at/inside 5 vs. Panthers last week, including Line's 1-yard TD run.

Fantasy Goo: If you’re trying to decide between Kamara and Ingram for the playoff run, Kamara looks to be the much better play.


01/09/18, 07:20 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jay Ajayi

Philadelphia Eagles

It's A Trap


Jay Ajayi (knee) is practicing in full for the Divisional Round.

Fantasy Goo: Atlanta is 5th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s this year and they are more susceptible to pass-catching backs. Todd Gurley rushed 14 times for 101 yards in the Rams' Wild Card loss to the Falcons, adding four receptions for 10 additional yards. Ajayi might have been drafted before Gurley this year, but that was clearly a mistake. Ajayi has talent, but he’s far from a good option this week.


01/09/18, 07:16 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Chris Hogan

New England Patriots

Back in Action


Chris Hogan (shoulder) is expected to return for Saturday's Divisional Round game against the Titans.

Fantasy Goo: He’s going to take a couple of weeks to get in tune with the offense, I’m looking to save him until the Super Bowl if you’re in one of those one and done fantasy playoff tournaments.


01/09/18, 07:14 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com


Drew Brees

New Orleans Saints

Strength vs Strength


Saints RBs led NFL during regular season in receptions (9.0) and receiving yards (77.8) per game.
Vikings held opposing RBs to fewest yards per target (4.2) and 3rd-fewest yards per game (30.6).

Fantasy Goo: The Vikings have been absolutely sick in all aspects on defense this year. If the Saints are going to pull this one out it sounds like it’s going to have to be a Brees week, I’m not so sure he’s going to be the guy you want to start on the road this week.


01/09/18, 07:12 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


LeSean McCoy

Buffalo Bills

Not The Real McCoy


LeSean McCoy said if he plays Sunday, "I want to be able to cut well enough to where I don't have a lot of pain cutting. I just want to be close, or the best as far as 100 percent as I can get. The type of game like this, you got to lay it all on the line.”

Fantasy Goo: McCoy is a poor play against the Jags this week. The Jags strength on defense is against the pass (#1 in FP allowed), but they are still strong against the rush (11th). I’m not taking any Bills on fantasy playoff squads or in DFS this week.


01/04/18, 09:29 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Derrick Henry

Tennessee Titans

Arrow Pointing Down


DeMarco Murray (knee) didn't practice again Thursday. Derrick Henry show ready to go.

Fantasy Goo: The way to attack KC is through the air, they rank 9th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s. They will most likely be in negative game script. KC hasn’t allowed any team to score over 20 points in Arrowhead all year.


01/04/18, 09:27 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Julio Jones

Atlanta Falcons

No Fly Zone


Julio Jones finished 11th in NFL in red-zone targets but caught only 5 of 19. He finished 4th in targets inside 10 but only caught 4 of 11.

Fantasy Goo: The Rams have a strong pass defense, especially against outside receivers, but are second worst in fantasy points allowed to RB’s. Freeman and Coleman are the only Falcons I am considering this week.


01/04/18, 09:25 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Kenny Golladay

Detroit Lions

Under the Radar


In the first game with TJ Jones (shoulder) on IR last week, Kenny Golladay played 95% of snaps and led DET WRs with 8 targets.

Fantasy Goo: Marvin Jones has a history of shredding the Packers defense and is a solid play at $6500 on DK, but Golladay is half the price ($3300) and will probably see a similar number of targets. If Detroit had something to play for I’d be stacking the heck out of this game, but I still think it’s smart to have one of these guys in the line-up this week.


12/31/17, 09:46 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Patrick Mahomes

Kansas City Chiefs

Rookie Debut


Patrick Mahomes was 2nd in PFF’s QB Rating when kept clean in preseason. He rushed for 744 yards, 22 TDs in his last two years at Texas Tech. Denver has allowed multiple passing TDs to six-straight QBs not named Petty or Brissett.

Fantasy Goo: The rookie was supposed to take over for Alex Smith much earlier this season, but Smith and the Chief’s came out firing on all cylinders and kept the rookie on the bench. Mahomes will get his chance this week as Smith gets a week off before the playoffs. Denver may be packing it in, but they still have one of the best defenses and I expect they will play more inspired this week against a division rival.


12/31/17, 09:32 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Wayne Gallman

New York Giants

Last Man Standing


Giants will be without Shepard (neck), Engram (ribs), and King (concussion) vs. WAS. Wayne Gallman has 9, 7, 8 target counts in last three weeks.

Fantasy Goo: Washington ranks 24th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s and Gallman is $4200 on DK. Feels like a great way to save and pay up at other positions.


12/31/17, 09:21 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Alex Collins

Baltimore Ravens

Burfict Situation


Bengals LB Vontaze Burfict ruled out for game Sunday at Baltimore because of shoulder injury.

Fantasy Goo: Collins becomes a solid RB1 this week. Cincinnati’s run defense is a sieve with Burfict out.


12/31/17, 09:19 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Akeem Hunt

Houston Texans

Akeem No Dream


Charcandrick West is out Sunday vs Denver with an illness. Akeem Hunt and Kareem Hunt only RBs on active roster for KC. It would be a surprise to see Kareem play much. That means a ton of Akeem Hunt and likely some De'Anthony Thomas on passing downs.

Fantasy Goo: Akeem is min price ($3000) on DK so the definition of a free-square, but there’s a reason he’s bounced around the NFL and never earned a starting role. Denver is 5th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s, I’m not rostering Akeem when there are so many other options this week.


12/31/17, 09:17 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


DeAndre Hopkins

Houston Texans

Milestone Not Worth The Risk


Bill O'Brien on DeAndre Hopkins' status: 'Probably won't know up until game time'. Typically, we might classify this as coach-speak, but Hopkins has never missed a game, and is four catches away from 100 for the season. He's probably pushing hard to play.

Fantasy Goo: This is an awesome match-up for the Houston WR’s going against a very weak Indy pass defense, but there is really no reason for Hopkins to play, especially with the calf injury. At $8400 on DK he’s just way too pricey given this news. A sneaky start might be Will Fuller at $4300, he has 5 targets in each of the past three games and is coming off some difficult match-ups. Earlier in the season he was a superstar with Watson throwing the ball, but he has always had the big play in his arsenal no matter who the QB is.


12/29/17, 10:03 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Dion Lewis

New England Patriots

Vultures Are Always Flying


James White (ankle) remained limited at Thursday's practice. White was absent for last week's win over Buffalo but should be out there against the Jets in Week 17. He ranks eighth among running backs with 56 catches this year.

Fantasy Goo: Lewis dominated last week with White and Burkhead out, even though Gillislee vultured a TD. I would imagine that White playing will take away the five receptions Lewis had last week and the Jets actually have a better rush defense than the Pats week 16 opponent (Buf). The Pats will be looking to lock-up home field advantage and won’t be resting their starters, but they will probably be looking to get everyone some work as they prep for the playoffs. Gillislee appears to be nursing a hammy and is not expected to play, but let’s not forget how White performed last year in the Super Bowl.


12/29/17, 09:47 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

Pittsburgh Steelers

Stars Sitting


The Steelers Marcus Gilbert tells reporter Tim Benz that the Steelers won't play Ben Roethlisberger or Le'Veon Bell in finale vs. Cleveland. Landry Jones will be under center for Pittsburgh and Fitzgerald Toussaint and Stevan Ridley will form a thoroughly underwhelming RB committee against the Browns.

Fantasy Goo: Underwhelming is an understatement for these two backs, a highly respected fantasy website hasn’t even updated the news on these two since the pre-season and doesn’t even recognize them as being on the team. The one player of note in this is Martavis Bryant, The Alien averages over 17 ppr points per game with Landry at the helm as opposed to 8.4 ppg with other QB’s. He also has 5 TD’s in 5 home games with Landry. Granted most of this production comes from 2015 when they worked together often in the preseason, but Bryant could be a very sneaky GPP play this week.


12/29/17, 09:23 AM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Jacksonville Jaguars

Play To Win The Game


Despite already being locked into the AFC's No. 3 seed, Jaguars coach Doug Marrone has no plans to rest starters in Sunday's game against the Titans. "Make no mistake about it, just so there is not a lot of talk during the week: When the players come in (Wednesday), we are talking about how we are going to play to win and do everything we possibly can to win this game, period," Marrone said. "I am not even thinking about what happens beyond that, and that is the way we are going to go about our business this week."

Fantasy Goo: I think it’s crazy of him to do, but I’m sure he has Tom Coughlin in his ear feeding him that old-school philosophy. Looks like Bortles, Fournette, Westbrook and Cole will be safe plays against a Titan’s team hoping to hold on to the sixth seed in the AFC.


12/26/17, 10:00 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: www.rotoworld.com

Los Angeles Rams

Resting Starters


McVay hints that there will be Rams starters “who won’t play at all” on Sunday. The Rams are already locked into either the No. 3 or 4 seed in the NFC and will host a Wild Card round playoff game.

Fantasy Goo: Gurley, Goff, Woods, all sitting this week? That’s going to destroy so many hopes and dreams for teams that rode Gurley all year.


12/26/17, 09:58 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


DeMarco Murray

Tennessee Titans

Grind It Out


Mike Mularkey said he's not ruling DeMarco Murray out just yet. He's day-to-day. The Titans are holding out hope to have him in limited role.

Fantasy Goo: They are really grinding him into the dirt if they play him this week. I didn’t see the injury, but it sounded pretty ugly from sources in the know. Keep away from him in whatever format you are playing this week, I’m giving Derick Henry a solid upgrade as the Titans are trying to hold on to the final playoff spot in the AFC.


12/26/17, 05:17 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Philadelphia Eagles

All Locked Up


Pederson on playing Foles vs. Cowboys: “I’ve got to get him as many reps as he can and then be smart about it. Obviously, we have a lot of football left. Our season is really just beginning, quite honestly. We’ll be smart.”

Fantasy Goo: This is why you don’t play a championship game in week 17. I’m staying away from the Eagles regular starters, pretty much across the board, as they have a first round bye all locked up. Guys like Blount, Clement, and Nelson Agholor might have some DFS appeal, but we have to get closer to Sunday to see what they plan on doing.


12/26/17, 05:15 PM CST by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Vegas Skyline, use the mindshare of the folks in Vegas to help you in fantasy football

Volume of Opportunity: How Vegas Can Help Influence Fantasy Football Decisions

Posted by d-Rx on 11/03/16

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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In fantasy football, everybody is looking for an edge. Everything is examined from the wind speed, to turf type, and even the temperature at time of kick-off.  We try to be as scientific as possible in the world of sports prediction. I am reminded of the Casino line: “Nicky’s methods of betting weren’t scientific, but they worked. When he won, he collected. When he lost, he told the bookies to go fuck themselves”. Well, few of us can make predictions like Sam Rothstein, or even swing a baseball bat like Joe Pesci. But, we all want an edge, some added insight. Well, Vegas can certainly give you that leg up in the fantasy football world. We often reference an implied team total or a spread. But perhaps you are not really sure why, or worse yet, what to do with that information. There are just a few key things to start with: the spread, the over under, and the implied team totals. The bottom line is this: Vegas can give you an advantage when making your fantasy football decisions, because it can give you an indication about the volume of opportunity.

 

So, let’s just start with the spread. The spread is essentially the difference between the two final scores of each team. If team A is favored by 3 points, that means team B is expected to lose by 3 points. Team A is listed as -3, and team B is listed as +3. So if you happen to be betting with the spread, before the ball is even kicked off, the score is team A = 0 and team B = 3. I start paying attention to the spread when it is say 6 points or greater. The higher the spread, the more a certain team is favored to win. Last year, there were 67 instances of a spread being 7 points or more. That is 3.94 each week, and that includes weeks 16 and 17 which saw a higher number than normal. Of the 67 instances where the spread was at least 7 points or more, there were 29 times when that spread reached double digits, or just 1.7 per week on average. So this is a way to really narrow the focus of quality fantasy plays in a given week by simply looking at how much a specific team is favored over their opponent.

 

To continue with this line of thinking, a high spread really suggests game script. Game script will allow you to identify the play-calling in a given game and thus, which positions will have the greatest volume of opportunity. So, let’s say Atlanta is 10 point favorites over Cleveland (sorry Browns fans). What does that tell you? How can you use that for fantasy purposes? Well, Atlanta should have a positive game script. If the game goes accordingly, Atlanta will be up, chances are fairly early. They will look to run and play D like most teams do when they have the lead. Running the ball means the clock keeps moving, and when you are up, coaches want the game to end to secure the win. So, the higher the spread, the more likely the favored team’s running backs will be used. If you add an opposing defenses performance against the rush, then you really start to have something. Guess what, this is what Billicheck does. There is this believe that surrounds him that suggests a mystery, an unpredictable quality to ‘Wild Bill’. But the fact is, if the Patriots have a positive game-script, that is to say, they are heavy favorites, AND the opposing D struggles against RBs, then it is a safe bet it will be a Blount game in that the Patriot’s ground game should get plenty of action.

 

In contrast, let’s just say a team is heavy underdogs. Well, then chances are, while the other team is running the ball offensively, the under dog will need to pass in order to stay in the game. So, that is referred to a s a negative game-script and chances are, the QB and the pass catchers will be decent fantasy plays. Look, the bottom line, we are chasing opportunity. If a team is heavy favorites, there will be more opportunity for the favored team to use their running backs.. If they are underdogs, there should be a greater volume of usage for the pass catchers. While TDs are hard to predict, it stands to reason if a player is given more opportunities, they will have a higher chance to score, and that is what you are doing when you use the spread to influence your fantasy decisions. You are identifying which positions will get the most usage, and thus, have a greater probability to score.

 

Now, let’s turn from identifying a position with the use of the spread, to determining which offenses are most likely to score TDs in a given week. Obviously, if there is an over/under above 50, that means there should be plenty of scoring opportunity. But we need to go farther than that. Here is where you want to look at implied team totals. This is tossed out quite a bit in fantasy circles. Yet, I have been asked several times where to find this. Sure there are certain sites you can pay for, or a few hidden gems that post this. But really, you just need to know the formula and do a little math.

 

In order to find a team’s implied team total, you divide the over/under in half, then add half the spread to the favored team and subtract half the spread from the underdogs and you have the implied team total.  For example, let us just use the previous Atlanta vs. Cleveland scenario. If the over under is 44 and the spread favors the Falcons by 10 points, then you just break the 44 in half. That leaves 22. Then you add half the spread (5 points) to Atlanta, so they have an implied team total of 27 points. On the other hand, you take half the over/under, again, 22 points and then deduct half the spread, 5 points. So, the Browns have an implied team total in this situation of 17 points.

 

So, traditionally, an implied team total of 24 or above is when I will start paying attention, the higher you go, the better of course. In a given week, 28 might be tops, but implied team totals of 30 are not unheard of. On the Pyro Light podcast, I will generally bring it up if it is 26 or higher.

 

So, back to our original scenario, Atlanta versus the Browns. At first glance, if you just look at the 50 point over/under, it could be misleading. Ideally you want the implied team total. Now, what really sticks out is the Falcons (27) and the Browns only (17). So, if we put it all together, we know Atlanta should have plenty of opportunity to score TDs, nearly 4 in fact. Plus, they are heavy favorites, so now we are cooking with gas. We believe Atlanta will score a great deal, and will likely face a positive game-script. Thus, I want ownership of Atlanta running backs in this situation. We know from the implied team total, that there should be plenty of touchdowns. We narrow it down even further by adding the predictive game-script and say that those touchdowns will most likely come from the running back positions. Again, we are chasing opportunity to score. In this situation, we identified the Atlanta running backs as having the greatest likelihood of scoring.

 

In conclusion, this is an imperfect science of course. We are trying to make predictions about future events with imperfect, changing information. But, to me, it boils down to the volume of opportunity. I want chances to score, I want my players touching the ball as often as possible. Ironically, there is little correlation between a QB and attempts however. But for the other fantasy relevant positions, it is a numbers game. I look for a spread of perhaps 6 and above and an implied team total of 26 or above. I am not suggestions Vegas is the end all be all. But, it is one of several stats I use heavily in determining fantasy plays in a given week, it is a tool in the tool-chest, one of many. But, Vegas is a glittering city in the desert for a reason. They know what they are doing, so if I can use that to fashion a starting line-up, by God I am going to do it. I want to use as many quality indicators as possible, so I can prevent my fantasy team from sleeping with the fishes like Luca Brasi.

 

 

 

Luca Brasi from the The Godfather


 

By: @PyromaniacMo

 

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