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August 17, 2018
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Cooper Kupp

Los Angeles Rams

Mr. Cooper's neighborhood


Cooper Kupp was 4th in the NFL last year in red-zone targets. Kupp and Goff have the most chemistry of all the receivers on the team as Goff targeted him more than anyone last year. Everyone is expecting Cooks to lead these receivers in points this year, but Kupp will be the receiver to own. Sammy Watkins had eight red-zone touchdowns last year. Cooks is not a red-zone target receiver, so Kupp should see more targets and could sneak into the WR2 with massive upside.


08/13/18, 09:39 PM CDT by C-wags

Source: pyromaniac.com


Jerick McKinnon

Minnesota Vikings

The Jet is set to take off!


Mckinnon has been a super divisive player this offseason. Especially after the first preseason game where he didn't amass many yards and the following day he injured himself in practice. I constantly hear people question his ability to carry the ball 200+ times or that he can’t run between the tackles, or he’s unproven in a lead role. This is all NONSENSE and you shouldn’t believe any of it. Shanahan had his pick of players that he could’ve signed instead of Mckinnon, including Dion Lewis, Carlos Hyde, or drafting a rookie. He chose Mckinnon cause he felt he fit his offensive system in the same way that Devante Freeman fit his scheme. The 49ers just signed Alfred Morris today as a safety net, but I’m taking all the Mckinnon I can this year. I see him carrying the ball 205car/950yds/6td while also amassing 60rec/500yds/5td making him an RB1 this year. Don't be scared, and steal him away from people that are.


08/13/18, 09:24 PM CDT by C-wags

Source: pyromaniac.com


Marquise Goodwin

San Francisco 49ers

Too good, too fast


Marquiae goodwin has been targeted like a number one in camp. With Pierre Garcon likely squaring off with one of the toughest schedules against number one DBs, Goodwin could break out even more than he did last year. I wouldn't put it past him to put up T.Y HIlton numbers this year. Pick him up in the 6th and 7th round and pile up the points.


08/13/18, 09:11 PM CDT by C-wags

Source: pyromaniac.com


Jay Ajayi

Philadelphia Eagles

Ready To Fly


In 2016 Ajayi racked up 1272 yards on 260 carries and 8 TD’s and finished as the RB11 in both standard and PPR scoring. Last year Miami ran him out of town when he struggled in an anemic offense. He was not heavily used when he got to Philly, but his touches did increase every week until the Superbowl. He was also hyper efficient gaining 5.8 yards per carry and 9.1 yards per reception. Despite the general perception Clements usage went down with Ajayi’s arrival, even with Smallwood going down with injury. The Eagles have the number 1 offensive line as graded by PFF, and 18 RB targets and 192 carries vacated. Ajayi is a safe pick in the fourth round and a steal in the fifth.


08/02/18, 06:08 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.nflmock.com


Jimmy Graham

Green Bay Packers

Split Wide, Back in Stride


He is coming off a season that produced only 57 receptions for 520 yards, his fewest since his rookie season. With that said, Graham remains a big-time weapon in the red zone. He led the league last year with 27 targets in the region, which led to 10 touchdowns. You can bet Rodgers and play-caller Mike McCarthy will be utilizing his skills early and often when knocking on the door of the end zone.
Look for McCarthy to use a variety of personnel groupings with his new tight end group and expect to see Graham split out wide as a receiver much more than as a traditional in-line tight end.

This goes right along with what I was saying on Pyro podcast 308. I expect Graham to be used as a wide receiver and not a tight end. When Graham was negotiating his contract in his last season in New Orleans he wanted to be paid on scale with wide receivers because he rarely lined-up as an in-line tight end. When Seattle paid him, he did whatever they asked, and they asked him to block more. He was out for five games that year, but averaged one less reception per game and only scored two TD’s, after having at least nine TD’s in the previous four years. Overall Graham saw about 25% fewer targets while in Seattle compared to New Orleans and his fantasy numbers reflect it. I see Green Bay using him more like he was used in New Orleans, and even though he has obviously lost a step or two I see him as the major replacement for the Jordy Nelson targets.


07/22/18, 01:41 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.packersnews.com


Aaron Jones

Green Bay Packers

Cream Rises To The Top


Jones’ 5.55 YPC on first- and second-down carries trailed only Alvin Kamara (6.24) for best in the league last year. Jamaal Williams averaged 3.80 YPC on first- and second-down in 2017.

He’s slid two rounds since the announcement of his two game suspension, he is a screaming value if you can get him in the ninth round. We already knew he was going to be competing in a crowded backfield so missing two games really shouldn’t be a big hit to his overall production. The likelihood of either of the other two backs taking over the role is slim, Jones should be able to carve out 10 touches a game when he gets back with fresh legs. They are all high risk for injuries so I’m hoping this added rest will help Jones in the long run.


07/21/18, 06:51 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Nelson Agholor

Philadelphia Eagles

Solidified Role


In 2017, Nelson Agholor had 62 recs, 768 yds, 9 TDs and 7 games of WR2 or better. There is no reason he wouldn't maintain this output, even with additions in the offense. Agholor had to carve out a role for himself and beat out incumbent Jordan Matthews. This year he'll be the main slot receiver and have an established role from the start.


07/21/18, 06:49 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Sterling Shepard

New York Giants

Buying The Slot Receiver in a Shurmur Offense


Sterling Shepard is currently 24 years old with a 124/1,414/10 career line, in two seasons. He finished 2017 as the WR42 in 11 games (WR22 in FP/G) with only a 13.9% target share. He finished 2016 as the WR36 as a rookie. He's currently being drafted as the WR42 in MFL10’s.

Shepard does see more targets (+2.7), get more receptions (+2.3), more yards (+28), and get about three more PPR points per game when Beckham is out. But he still averages over 11 PPR points per game when he is playing. Apparently Shepard is more open in the end-zone when Beckham is playing, as he averages three times as many TD’s when they are both playing.


07/21/18, 06:47 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Allen Hurns

Jacksonville Jaguars

Plenty of Targets in Dallas


He’s been hampered by injuries over the past couple of years, but when he has stayed healthy and gotten the targets he has been successful. His best season was in 2015, he had 105 Targets for 64 Receptions at 1031 Yards for 10 TDs, that’s 16.11 Yards Per Reception and a 61% Catch Rate coming from Blake Bortles. He finished as the WR14 in Standard Scoring and WR18 in PPR.

He's an amazing value in the 11th round of current best-ball drafts.


07/21/18, 06:41 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Eric Ebron

Detroit Lions

Second Team Breath's New Life Into TE


Outside Brady, Luck is the only other QB to support 2 TE's, both Fleener and Allen had 8 TD's with Luck. Frank Reich runs 2 TE sets very successfully - see: 2018 Eagles. TE1's for Coach Reich have never finished worse than 12th. Yes, Doyle would seem like the obvious choice after last season, but that was with Brissett who needed a quick dump off outlet. Luck isn't a check-down machine.

Eric Ebron has lined up "everywhere" in the Colts offense. And the new tight end already is beginning to feel at home in Indianapolis. Without a strong WR2, Ebron could see a large number of targets. The Colt's line-up in two TE sets more than any other team in the NFL.


07/21/18, 06:36 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Matt Breida

San Francisco 49ers

Filling Coleman Role


“One guy who stood out at Niners practice to me was RB Matt Breida. No one talks about him, but the dude is gonna get some run this year. Fast downhill player.”

This is just some more camp hype from a beat reporter, but if they don’t get another running back through trade or free-agency Brieda is going to see plenty of touches to pay off being picked in the 15th round of fantasy drafts. McKinnon has never had over 205 touches in a season, that leaves plenty of opportunity in a Shanahan offense.


07/21/18, 06:28 PM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


LeSean McCoy

Buffalo Bills

McCoy starring down 30 with uncertainty


LeSean McCoy, despite ending the year as the #7 fantasy running back in standard leagues was a slight disappointment for fantasy owners last year. McCoy played in all 16 regular season games, but only cracked 100 yards rushing 4 times, and averaged 4.0 yards per rush, which was 23rd in the NFL. That all happened with a formidable QB with a scrambling ability that defenses had to respect, presumably allowing McCoy some more room before tacklers ascended.
The Bills have the least sexy QB situation in the entire NFL in my opinion. With Tyrod Taylor at the helm for most of the season last year, the bills had the 31st passing offense. None of the QBs on the Bills roster are considered mobile and without a wide receiver on their roster worthy of drafting in any fantasy formats, defenses can stack the box against McCoy. McCoy will be overused, underperform and probably get hurt because of it. McCoy’s ADP is in the second round, but wouldn’t touch him until the fourth or beginning of the fifth round.


06/29/18, 12:42 PM CDT by C-wags

Source: pyromaniac.com


Tyreek Hill

Kansas City Chiefs

Hill lookin' busty with chiefs new look.


Tyreek Hill had a great 2017, amounting 75 receptions for 1183 yards and 7 touchdowns in 15 games. He’s currently being drafted in the middle of the third round in standard leagues, which would appear to be a great value. However, with promoted RB coach Eric Bieniemy presumably in-line to be the primary play caller, a new QB, Travis Kelce receiving the #1 target share and the addition of Sammy Watkins, I expect Hill’s numbers to decrease dramatically.
I believe Hill to be more of a boom or bust player this year. There’s no denying his break-away speed and ability to separate from defenders, and with Mahomes cannon of an arm, I expect them to connect deep on occasion. However, I believe Sammy Watkins to be the more complete receiver and likely to take more of the target share from Hill. Bundled with the change in offensive strategy toward the end of last year to run the ball more, the change to a young QB presumably resulting in a more conservative game plan, I see a major decline in the amount of touches Hill will get and see him as more of a 5-6 round flex play guy.


06/21/18, 10:54 AM CDT by C-wags

Source: pyromaniac.com


Eric Ebron

Detroit Lions

Ebron Could Use Some Luck


Colts signed TE Eric Ebron, formerly of the Lions, to a two-year contract. Coach Frank Reich called Ebron an "elite tight end."

The last time we saw Andrew Luck healthy (2016), the Colts used 2+ TE sets at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL and had the 6th-highest target share to TEs.


04/01/18, 11:32 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Carlos Hyde

San Francisco 49ers

Hyde and Seek


Browns agreed to terms with RB Carlos Hyde, formerly of the 49ers, on a three-year, $15 million contract.

Obtaining Hyde has several trickle-down effects; first it replaces Crowell who signed with the Jets, it probably diminishes Duke Johnson’s value a bit. Hyde is a better all-around back than Crowell was and will certainly take over the goal-line work seeing that he’s got 20+ pounds on Duke. It also reduces the likelihood that Cleveland takes Saquon Barkley with the 4th pick in the draft. They will most likely look to draft a defensive player (Chubb) or trade down again.


04/01/18, 11:28 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Jerick McKinnon

Minnesota Vikings

McKinnon Goes West For Gold-Rush


49ers agreed to terms with RB Jerick McKinnon, formerly of the Vikings, on a four-year, $30 million contract.

McKinnon averaged a ho-hum 3.8 yards a carry for the Vikings and scored three rushing touchdowns. By contrast, San Francisco's former lead runner, Carlos Hyde, averaged 3.9 yards an attempt in 2017 and had eight rushing touchdowns.

It appears as though Shanahan is enamored with McKinnon's athletic metrics, but I'm not so sure he was "pounding the table" to get him. This move could push the Niner's to cut Joe Williams.


04/01/18, 11:12 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.sacbee.com


Mike Wallace

Baltimore Ravens

Eagles Keep Improving


Eagles signed WR Mike Wallace to a one-year contract.
Mike Wallace can still move posting a top five max speed among wide receivers last season. He will fill the void left by Torrey Smith as a speed vertical threat.


04/01/18, 11:08 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Terrelle Pryor

Washington Redskins

Jets Searching For Weapons


Jets agreed to terms with WR Terrelle Pryor, formerly of Washington and Cleveland.

Second year in a row on a new team doesn’t really help Pryor's cause, but I like the idea of him on the field with Teddy Bridgewater at some point. I would imagine, with some creativity, the Jets could really design some innovative gadget plays.
The Jets receiving corps really looks like a bunch of question marks at this point though, no telling what the week-to-week outcome will be with these guys.
Jermaine Kearse: 65 catches, 810 yards, 5 touchdowns (2017)
Robby Anderson: 63 catches, 941 yards, 7 touchdowns (2017)
Quincy Enunwa: 58 catches, 857 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)
Terrelle Pryor: 77 catches, 1007 yards, 4 touchdowns (2016)


04/01/18, 11:04 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com


Carlos Henderson

Denver Broncos

Sleeper Watch


Broncos coach Vance Joseph said the team is "counting on" Carlos Henderson making an impact in 2018.

If you are paying attention to Staggs projections there is plenty of opportunity for Henderson to step into a solid number of targets in the slot. Henderson was hindered by injury and awful QB play last year. Being drafted in the 18th round or later in best-ball leagues, Henderson is the late round flyer that should be on your radar.


04/01/18, 11:00 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: www.denverpost.com


Ben Watson

Baltimore Ravens

Watson Returns To Big Easy


Saints signed TE Ben Watson, formerly of the Ravens, to a one-year contract.

Watson had 74 catches on 110 targets for 825 yards and 6 TD’s when he was with the Saints in 2015. After missing 2016 he had a pretty good year with Baltimore last year despite an anemic offense, with 61 catches on 79 targets for 522 yards and 4 TD’s. He’s not a bad late round flyer TE. He’s basically free right now, but I expect by the time the season starts he’ll be being drafted within the top 20 at the position.


04/01/18, 10:54 AM CDT by Wheeler

Source: twitter.com

Tom Brady goes for his 5th ring and Matt Ryan for his first

Weekly Matchups - Super Bowl LI

Posted by d-Rx on 02/03/17

by   The Archer


@TheArcher


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New England (-3) vs. Atlanta Falcons; Over/Under: 58.5 

 

Let’s just start by stating that 58.5 is the highest over/under in Super Bowl history, so the brainiacs in Vegas think there is going to be a lot of scoring happening in this game. The 33.8 points per game by the Falcons (540 total points) led the NFL this season, while the Patriots came in 3rd with 27.6 (441 total points) points per game. In the 2 playoff games each team has played so far this season, the Falcons are averaging 40 points per game and the Patriots are averaging 35 points per game. Holy crap, let the scoreboard ring! On defense in those 2 games, the Falcons allowed Seattle and Green Bay to score 41 points against them, and the Patriots have only allowed 33 points by the Texans and Steelers this postseason.

 

The Patriots are playing in their NFL-record 9th Super Bowl appearance, the 7th during the Tom Brady and Bill Belicheck era. They’ve won 4 of their 6 appearances thus far. Will Tom Brady have a hand full of hardware Sunday Night and go 5 of 7 in his Super Bowl appearances? Or will Atlanta win their first championship in their second ever Super Bowl chance. The Falcons currently sit with the Cardinals, Bills, Jaguars, Vikings, Panthers, Bengals, Lions, Chargers, Browns, Texans, Eagles and Titans as the only 13 NFL teams that have never won a Lombardi Trophy. So it's essentially the Falcons getting off the schneid or the Patriots solidify their legacy as the greatest dynasty the NFL has seen to date.

 


Super Bowl LI: Matt Ryan vs Tom Brady

 


This is the third time the Super Bowl has taken place in Houston. This is also Dan Quinn’s third Super Bowl in the last 4 years, which is super impressive. Quinn lost to Tom Brady and the Patriots a couple of years ago as the defensive coordinator of the Seahawks. In just his second year as head coach of the Falcons, he has brought them to the biggest game in all of professional sports, he's an under-rated coach.

 

The fact is, neither team wants to get caught in a shootout here, but the Falcons will be in unchartered waters if the Patriots were to get off to a quick start and jump out to an early lead. That would put a lot of pressure on Julio Jones, and take the running attack away. But the Falcons are great at getting on the board early given the fact that Atlanta has scored touchdowns on their last 8 opening drives, which is insane. The result may be Bill taking the ball first if the Patriots were to win the coin toss before the game, something he usually differs. The first quarter of this game will be make or break for the Falcons in my eyes, it will be tough for them to come back if down early.

 

 

SBLI: Freeman vs Blount at RB

 

 

The New England offense can attack the Falcons a lot of ways. They have a bevy of talent for Terrific Tom to quickly get the ball out of his hands and into the playing field. The Falcons are going to have to use Vic Beasley all over the place, but especially up the middle and get in Brady’s face quickly and rough him up, or else #12 will eat them alive. When James White is the game they are passing, 92% of the time, so if you see him out there, expect a passing play. Staggs and Houdini both think this is a Blount game.

 

The Patriots can smash the Falcons on the ground using Blount, just look at the Philadelphia Eagles win over the Falcons in week 10, where the Eagles won using their 3 running backs (Ryan Mathews, Wendell Smallwood and Darren Sproles) on 34 carries for 198 yards and 2 TDs. I'd look for the Patriots to potentially follow that game plan model and set the tone by running a lot in order to keep the Falcons high-flying offense on the sidelines. If they can move the chains on the ground, Brady may have a pretty chill day at the office.

 

 

SBLI: Tevin Coleman vs Dion Lewis

 


Patriots are going to target the hell out of Julian Edelman, but will he be getting the red zone looks? With a Gronk out, will The Black Unicorn be the one that gets one in the red zone? Tough call. Staggs doesn't see Hogan lighting it up. Tom Brady is tough to blitz, on the season he has gone 61 of 99 throws for 838 passing yards and 11 touchdowns, and no interceptions. Heres the crazy part, he was only sacked twice on those 99 blitzes. Not an easy guy to throw the kitchen sink at, but what choice do the Falcons have - if you give him time Brady will slice you up. It's going to be a long day for the Falcons defense, that is for sure.

 

 

SBLI: Wide Receivers 1 

 


Both offensive coordinators in McDaniel and Shanahan are very creative play callers, so Staggs believes there will be an array of creative plays called from each side on offense. On the latest Pyro Podcast (show 261) both Staggs and Houdini agreed the final score will be 28-24 with the Patriots winning it again. The winner of the game earns $97,000 and the loser gets paid $49,000 so who wants the money more? While all of said we'd love to see Julio, Matt and the rest of the team get a ring for the ATL, it's going to be tough to achive. Should be an awesome game though.

 

While most of the chatter has been on how BB can scheme and come up with a defensive gameplan to slow down the Falcons offense, the Falcons defense is riding high at the moment themselves, after the Falcons bye week in Week 12 they have been a top-10 defense league-wide. Not chop liver by any means, and they were able to make Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense look marginal a couple of weeks ago in the NFC Conference Championship game.

 

 

SBLI: WR2

 

SBLI: WR3

 

 

Atlanta has converted 64 percent of their 3rd downs this season, over 20 points higher than their regular season rate (42.1), which against the Patriots you have to think will come back down to earth. The Falcons have 2 explosive running backs in Tevin Coleman and Devonte Freeman, but the Patriots gameplan take you out of your element, make you stop running, they don’t allow touchdowns to RBs, but they are susceptible to running backs catching passes on them. Don’t expect a long touchdown run by one of these Falcons running backs, seeing that the Patriots only let up 1 carry of over 30 yards on the season. They are really tough to run on.

 

Julio Jones is going to be beat up and hit a lot, every play - hard and often. It’s what Belichick does, he’ll knock the star player in the jaw till the guy breaks and doesn’t want to get hit anymore. Staggs thinks Julio will still get his stats, but the Patriots are great tacklers, so don't exect a long play on a missed tackle like he did on the Packers. It shouldn’t be a 1 on 1 by Malcolm Butler, while they bracket Julio in order to take him out. When Julio is hurt he can be used as more of a decoy, so let's hope he is really healthy for this big game or the Falcons are toast. Mohamed Sanu has been playing well and will have to make some plays in this game if the Falcons are going pull this game out. Rooting for Mohamed to have a good game and represent all the Muslim people out there that he represents in this game.

 

 

 

SBLI: Tight Ends from Falcons vs Tight Ends from Patriots

 

 

So sit back and throw down a few Vaaalverdes on Sunday, and let's all hope for a great game. I hope you all win your squares and your team wins, it's a sad day in sports come Monday with the NFL season being complete, so enjoy this last game to the fullest! Much love and respect! //d-Rx®

 

 

 

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