Who was more responsible for last year’s record-breaking year?  Bobby Layne,  Matt Millen, or William Clay Ford, Sr.?  The timing of it all has Layne written all over it.  But we don’t believe in ghosts… or curses.  Take the Chicago Cubs; their failures have nothing to do with a goat.  Their ineptitude for the last 100+ years is because of lax ownership.  The Wrigleys didn’t know what they were doing, while the Tribune Company only cared about maximizing profits and perennially took the Cub fan base for granted.  The Lions are just poorly run.  How is it fair to assign Matt Millen the lion’s (pun intended) share of the blame?  Should he have voluntarily stepped down after it was clear that he didn’t know what he was doing?  It’s an owner’s responsibility to make a move, just ask Vince McMahon:

 
By our estimation, the blame for this debacle lands squarely on the chin of Ford Sr., as he should have let Millen go after the third or fourth consecutive last place in-division finish (2002-2003).

Millen is the worst talent evaluator in the history of the NFL.  We present to you Exhibit A - 31 wins and 97 losses – good for the worst GM record in league history.  We’re interested to know how many Tums that comes out to.  Exhibits B-Z are his many failed draft picks, which started with his very first one, OL Stockar McDougle (20th overall pick bust in the 2000 draft), as well as other colossal high 1st round busts like QB Joey Harrington, WR Mike Williams, and WR Charles Rogers.  

In free agency, he was just as bad.  Jon Kitna and James Stewart represent the only off-season moves on offense worthy of mention.  Kitna managed three more INTs than TDs in his 2.25 years under center in Detroit.  James Stewart and his two 1,000-yard seasons and 19 total TDS in three years (2000-2002) was Millen’s crowning achievement.  What was Ford Sr. waiting for all of these years?  A supernova?  A black hole to suck up the Earth?  An 0-16 season?  In the context of the franchise he currently owns/runs, he got all three.  The longer he procrastinated, the worse it got.  By the time he finally drafted some talent (Calvin Johnson 1st round 2007 and Kevin Smith 3rd round 2008), it was too late.  The years of poor talent management and coaching selections culminated in the most pathetic way possible.

There are a few reasons to be bullish on their fantasy prospects over the next few years:  They had a strong 2009 draft by adding #1 overall pick, QB Matt Stafford, and then TE Brandon Pettigrew later in the round at 20th.  Add WR Calvin Johnson, RB Kevin Smith, and a decent offensive line to the mix, and you find yourself with some hope.  The immediate future looks a bit murky, though.  

Megatron owners could be in for some heartache in ‘09.  Calvin is other-worldly talented, but he racked up a lot of his production in games where they were recklessly chucking the ball while down by three or more scores.  The Lions threw on 59% of their plays (509 attempts).  With a rookie under center, despite having the pass-happy freak Scott Linehan running the offense, we would expect that the Lions have an eye toward how the Ravens and Falcons handled having two rookie signal callers under center last year.  Atlanta ended up 2nd in rushing attempts, while the Ravens were 4th, and both teams managed playoff berths.  The X-factor in the Lions’ camp is if Daunte Culpepper wins the job, as he flourished in Minnesota when Linehan was coordinator from 2002-2004.  No, Culpepper and his injury-riddled body isn’t capable of putting up those kinds of numbers in Detroit, but if he’s under center, Linehan will not shy away from passing the ball like he would with a rookie.  One thing to consider is that Roddy White and Derrick Mason were able to maintain their fantasy value on lower passing attempts... and Megatron is more talented than both.

Kevin Smith could be in for a monster year in either case.  When handed the starting role in the 2nd half of the season, he rushed for 671 yards and four TDs on 168 attempts along with 124 receiving yards.  Those are starter numbers when amortized over 16 games (1,590 total yards and eight TDs), and don’t forget that the Lions attempted the 2nd fewest rushes (352) in the NFL in ’08.  Teams will still have to worry about Calvin Johnson split out wide, and it’s not like the rookie Stafford can fare any poorer than Dan Orlovsky, Jon Kitna, and Daunte Culpepper did last season (3,160 yards, 18 TDs, 19 INTs for a 55% completion percentage).

Matthew Stafford - The Lions threw for 3334 yards and 18 TD and 19 INTs with five awful QBs in 2008.  If Stafford can match those numbers, he can be a service-able back-up fantasy QB.  To do that, he will need to A)win the starting job and B) be given 509 (in 2008) passing attempts again.  We don’t see B) happening as they will increase their 31st ranked rushing attempts (352).  This is a team that can’t get worse, and they will be trying to protect their QB much like Baltimore and Atlanta did in 2008, no matter how far from behind they are playing.  He is certainly worth a late round flier, though.  Over the last 11 years, Matt Ryan, Peyton Manning, Vince Young, Byron Leftwich, and Joe Flacco all finished in the top 20 fantasy QBs (basic format).    

Daunte Culpepper – He should have never let the Vikings let Randy Moss leave Minnesota after the 2004 season – or should have at least followed him to Oakland.  He has been wildly inaccurate since not playing with Randy and has not played in more than seven games since they’ve been split.   and will serve as Stafford’s back-up unless Stafford chokes in training camp.  One note to consider is that Scott Linehan, former Vikings’ coordinator from 2002-2004 will be coordinating the offense in 2009.  Culpepper had the best year of his career in Linehan’s offense in 2004.

Kevin Smith - He is a future fantasy star and one of a few every-down RBs remaining in the league.  After only getting 70 carries the first eight games in '08, he had a great second half rushing for 671 yards and four TDs on 168 attempts along with 124 receiving yards.  Spread those over 16 games and you are all of the sudden looking at 1,590 total yards and eight TDs.  Don't forget that the Lions attempted the 2nd fewest rushes in the NFL in '08.  He is capable of a full load having toted the ball 450 times in his last season with Central Florida in '07.  We have him ranked in the top-ten RBs.  Aggressive?  Yeah, but take a look at the Lions' RB depth chart.  There is no RBBC going down in D-town.

Maurice Morris – Is not an every-down RB and is not even worth drafting as Kevin Smith’s back-up.  He is weak and not capable of breaking tackles.  Why Detroit signed this guy to a $7 million contract is further proof that Detroit’s decision-making persists in the post-Matt Millen era.

Calvin Johnson – Megatron is the real deal.  He was 3rd overall in fantasy point production (basic format) cranking production from a true pooh-pooh platter of QBs including Dan Orlovsky, Daunte Culpepper,  Drew Henson, and Drew Stanton.  He finished last season ranked 5th in targets (151), yards (1,331), and tied for 1st in TDs (12).  And now for the bad news… If/when Stafford wins the starting job, the Lions will look to run the ball as much as possible.  Atlanta attempted 434 passes (29th rank) and Baltimore 433 (30th) with their rookies in ’08.  Roddy White and Derrick Mason were able to maintain their fantasy relevance, though, so we’re not bumping him down too far.  He’s still in our top-five WRs.   

Bryant Johnson – He should win the starting job opposite Calvin Johnson, but that won’t mean much.  This first-round bust has proven that he is not a versatile WR since being selected by the Cardinals before Anquan Boldin in the 2003 NFL draft.  He won’t do much to command double teams away from Megatron.  The 2nd receiving option on Detroit does not command even a last round flier.

Brandon Pettigrew – He was the Lions’ other 1st round draft pick and has already won the starting job.  He is the total package at TE as he can block just as good as he can catch the pill.  Rookie QBs tend to lean on their TEs for the short and intermediate routes, so his promising future could sneak up on him rather quickly.  He is a good backup TE option and should be around toward the tail end of your draft.

Total 2008 Points = 88

Analysis:  This unit has some talent but has not had much to play for over the last couple of years.  The top down changes in the off-season are a start. They will also bond together as they must keep their rookie signal caller healthy.  No significant changes to this unit from 2008 to 2009.

Analysis:  The Jim Colletto experiment is finally over – we aren’t entirely sure how that guy got his job in the first place.  Every check out his coaching career stats?  They are laughable.  At any rate, Linehan is back doing what he does best.  He has his Randy Moss talent in Calvin Johnson and a stud RB to work with.  The Rookie QB will be a challenge, but he does have a familiar face in Daunte Culpepper to fall back on in case Stafford isn’t quite ready.
 

Incoming

WR Ronald Curry

TE Will Heller

WR Bryant Johnson

OT Daniel Loper

RB Maurice Morris

OT Ephraim Salaam

FB Terrell Smith

LB Cody Spencer

LB Julian Peterson

LB Larry Foote

CB Anthony Henry

CB Phillip Buchanon

CB Eric King

DT Grady Jackson

Outgoing

CB Leigh Bodden

TE Dan Campbell

TE Marcus Gaines

DT Shaun Cody

WR Mike Furrey

CB Brian Kelly

FB Moran Norris

QB Dan Orlovsky

TE John Owens

G Stephen Peterman

We are firm believers that strength-of-schedule analysis is essential when ranking players at every position.  We applied this system (without the 5% NFL draft impact) in hindsight to last year's schedule as we were curious how well it could work.  The notable results were that Michael Turner and the Falcons had a #32 ranked (easiest) rush schedule last season and DeAngelo Williams and the Panthers were #30.  

Our SoS considers three factors when determining rankings for schedules for the upcoming year:

80% weight is applied to the quality of defense from the previous year.  We determine quality of defense based on fantasy points given up (run and pass).  However, before we get to that number, we factor in the quality of teams that these defenses faced (basically a strength-of-schedule for the previous year).  This was all done by hand.  Let's just say our boy, Stitchface, has a bit of the carpal tunnel-syndrome going on.    

15% weight is applied to Free-Agent movement.  We ranked each free agent's impact to their former team (2008), and then ranked each team according to whether they added or lost talent overall.

5% weight is applied to the NFL draft impact.  It's tough to gauge a rookie's effectiveness which is why we valued it so low.  Certain teams not only drafted defensemen well in '09, but also will be sliding those guys into highly deficient positions from '08, and usually, anything is an upgrade when you are starting a rookie. 

If you trust Stitchface's formula (and you will eventually), all you need to realize is the following... The higher the SoS number, the easier the fantasy schedule. 

Ranking:  1=toughest  32=easiest