We are firm believers that strength-of-schedule analysis is essential when ranking players at every position. We applied this system (without the 5% NFL draft impact) in hindsight to last year's schedule as we were curious how well it could work. The notable results were that Michael Turner and the Falcons had a #32 ranked (easiest) rush schedule last season and DeAngelo Williams and the Panthers were #30.
Our SoS considers three factors when determining rankings for schedules for the upcoming year:
80% weight is applied to the quality of defense from the previous year. We determine quality of defense based on fantasy points given up (run and pass). However, before we get to that number, we factor in the quality of teams that these defenses faced (basically a strength-of-schedule for the previous year). This was all done by hand. Let's just say our boy, Stitchface, has a bit of the carpal tunnel-syndrome going on.
15% weight is applied to Free-Agent movement. We ranked each free agent's impact to their former team (2008), and then ranked each team according to whether they added or lost talent overall.
5% weight is applied to the NFL draft impact. It's tough to gauge a rookie's effectiveness which is why we valued it so low. Certain teams not only drafted defensemen well in '09, but also will be sliding those guys into highly deficient positions from '08, and usually, anything is an upgrade when you are starting a rookie.
If you trust Stitchface's formula (and you will eventually), all you need to realize is the following... The higher the SoS number, the easier the fantasy schedule.
Ranking: 1=toughest 32=easiest
